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Craft matters in small ways like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on 27th March, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is THE Globalist with me, Emma Nelson. A very warm welcome to today's program. Ahead in the next 60 minutes, the war in the Middle east touches pockets around the globe.
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So far, consumer confidence has fallen more
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sharply in Europe than following the 911 attacks. That's European Central bank chief Christine Lagarde there. The world is hanging on every word of the global banking chiefs. We'll examine what could lie ahead with a focus on Europe. And we'll also examine the ways in which aviation could find fresh roots. Also coming up on today's program, almost all of them.
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This story is about me. This is my story. This is me.
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We'll hear from the author of a book focusing on the lives of the women left behind in Ukraine's war with Russia. Plus, Andrew Muller will remind us what we learned this week. And we head to Hong Kong as Muller launches its newspaper, the Hong Kong Correspondent. That's all coming up on THE Globalist live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. President Trump has said he will delay the bombing of Iranian energy plants by 10 days. The Australian prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has attempted to reassure people in the country about the supply of fuel. And the White House says a population decline in some of America's major cities. It's because of the success of President Trump's border security policies. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, in the three weeks since the war in the Middle east began, the price of everything associated with fossil fuels has been rising, from airline fuel to fertiliser. And the secondary effect is to push the cost of everything else up, too, including food. The markets are being hit hard and the world's financiers and economists are furiously going through their notes to see if there is a comparable playbook to follow. Well, I'm joined now from Munich by Carl Karsten Bezerski, who's a global head of macro at ING Research. They Carry out global corporate and financial research and strategy with a focus on the European markets. A very good morning to you, Carsten.
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Good morning.
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So let's begin this section by examining Christine Lagarde's speech yesterday. Head of the European Central bank issuing a stern but a very thoughtful view on how the world's markets and the world's finances are operating. And she was setting a tone, wasn't she?
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D
Definitely. I think she. Well, she did what all of us are currently doing, namely analyzing what are the mechanisms, what are the channels via which the higher energy prices are being passed through to the economy. And I think there is already a first inflation wave in the making. And that is what you and I, if we fill up our cars at the gas station already feeling so it is gasoline prices, there's always the first imminent effect. Then we have the next what we call knock on effects on transportation costs. Also have fertilizer costs going up because they also passed the Strait of Hormuz. We will have food prices also going up. We will probably have all other goods that are either depending on energy or on transportation via the Strait of Hormuz also seeing their prices go up. So which means this already a first wave of inflation clearly in the making. And then the big question is, are we really back in the 2022 scenario or is this rather, if we look back slightly more in the past, we had the 20 episode in which we also had higher oil prices, which were not followed by a kind of really broader inflationary shock like we had in 2022.
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B
So let's look a little bit at the timing of all this. I mean, I've just mentioned in the headlines that Anthony Albanese, the Australian Prime Minister, has asked people to stop panic buying fuel. But there is behind that a warning from Lagarde yesterday that the energy supply that has been lost in the last three to four weeks cannot be restored quickly. It will take months. And she was warning that the things that she's quite worried about is that the effect of what is happening now is to be felt for the medium term. We're looking at at least a year.
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D
Yeah, correct. Even though she said, I think she was quoting some experts that the ECB had invited last week. So I think it was not an ECB's internal analysis, which also puts it little bit in perspective because I think we all know that some of the production or the energy production facility in the Middle east have been destroyed, but clearly not all of them. So we know that 20% of global energy passes the Strait of Hormuz we also know that there are other ways to transport energy which simply take a little bit longer. And of course then there is the upside compared to, for example, the oil prices in the 1970s. Oil and gas are no longer only produced by Middle east countries. So we have many other countries around the world, including the US that are also producing energy and that could probably also step up energy production. So whether it now really takes one year to get fully back to where we were in terms of energy production, I don't know. It could clearly be longer. I think what we all don't know, and that is the big uncertainty, the longer this war lasts, the more extreme this war gets and the more energy production capacities are really structurally destroyed in the Middle east, clearly the more severe this shock will become for the global economy.
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B
What role do governments play here? I mean, you mentioned the fact that other countries might be able to step up and increase their oil production. But in terms of the way that a government can budget now, there is not often much wriggle room, there's not much fiscal space to accommodate a shock of this magnitude. And there are concerns now about where the focus of where the priorities of government should be.
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D
Definitely. And well, you mentioned at the start we did some bank of the envelope estimates for a couple of Eurozone countries, just taking last week's gas price, gasoline prices and just keeping them constant for the rest of the year. If you do this, we're seeing that the negative impact on consumers disposable income is already as significant as it was in 2022. So this clearly shows how much it's going to hurt everybody's pockets, like you're rightly mentioning. But the fiscal situation for governments is worse than in 2022. In 2022, governments were still able, I think there were something in Europe like 500 individual government measures to either compensate for higher energy prices, give subsidies or what have you. So clearly the room for governments is much smaller now to do similar things. Plus governments have all kind of other requests to increase investments in the economies. So I think, and that's not whether I like it or not, but I think that this time around, governments will provide less support for consumers and companies suffering under higher energy prices than they did in 2022 and will rather focus on strengthening long term energy autonomy and also investing more in the economies to find other sources of growth than only industrial growth.
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B
Well, let's look at where those areas of growth might be. I mean, ING research specialises with the European markets. So what should Europe be focusing on now?
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D
Well, I think we're clearly seeing that big fiscal stimulus is going into the defense industry, is going into infrastructure. And yes, these projects will now also become more cost because there's also an energy card or a price tag to it. But that is clearly focusing on the longer term. Then we have across Europe structural reforms that are needed to make Europe more attractive for investment. And I'm talking about reduce bureaucracy, reduce regulation, do something about Social Security systems because this entire block is suffering from demographic change. And if governments now were to really engage in social reforms, health care, pensions, this would allow governments and also to open up more room on annual budgets for more investments. So these are the areas I think that European governments currently have to focus on rather than providing short term support.
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So explain a little bit more about just what happens next in terms of business activity. Supply chains, business confidence within the Eurozone of all of them are going to be and are currently being hit by what is happening in the Middle East. But this is having a global effect as well.
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Yeah, it is.
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I think, you know, you don't need to be a chief economist at a bank there. There's a very simple rule of thumb and this says like a permanent increase in oil prices by US$10 per barrel shaves off around 0.1 percentage points of GDP growth. So I think this, this gives you already some indication. Well, we're now some around $40 per barrel higher than at the start of the year. So this would mean shaving off 0.4 percentage points of GDP growth. Clearly differs a little bit across, across the countries. But this also is just to say that the current energy price shock as, as, as bad as it is, will, will not completely derail the economic recovery that we were seeing at the start of the year. It will delay it, but it will not delay it. Have to cope with higher prices now. They will try to pass it on to consumers. They will not be able to pass everything on because consumers balance sheets are more stressed than in 2022. There might be a bit of supply chain disruption, so we might have to wait a bit longer for certain products to come. But this is again more of the playbook we saw during the pandemic and also in the first year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So this is nothing new. It will only delay the recovery. And if European governments are really pushing through with these investments in digitalization, infrastructure, defense, if they push through with structural reforms, then we can still see a European economic recovery unfolding only a bit later than we earlier thought.
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Carsten Brzeski Global HEAD of macro at ING Research in Munich. Thank you so much for joining us on the Globalist. Now let's look at the ongoing effect of the war in in Iran on aviation. We've just done the business in the macroeconomic side, but very much being felt right across the world as people's finding that the price of an aeroplane ticket has gone up. Aviation, large airlines are having to struggle with increases in fuel prices. So let's talk about it with Ash Bhardwaj, journalist and author of why We Travel and regular voice here around the microphones at Midori House. Good morning, Ash. How are we?
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I'm good, thanks. Emma, how are you?
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Okay, we're very well now. So let's talk about, I mean, you can kind of divide this into three areas, can't you can divide this into planes, infrastructures and schedule where the planes are, the transporter infrastructure that's being heavily hit by this both short and long term and indeed the future of scheduling and where we actually can send our planes.
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So the development of the Gulf carriers, particularly Emirates, Etihad and Qatar, has completely revolutionized the way we travel because of the location of those places. The United Emirates and Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, you can get to a lot of cities within three to five hours. So if you're traveling from the United States and you want to get to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, it's a really good idea to fly via one of those three airlines aircraft hubs because you can fly in from the U.S. quickly change planes and go on. And in Qatar, 75% of the travelers going through Qatar are not staying there. They're changing flights. So let's say you're going from Dallas all the way to Bangalore. That's an example. You now cannot do that flight going via, say, Abu Dhabi. Instead you'll have to go maybe up to Canada and then across to London and then from London to Delhi. So you've got this impact not just on the fact that those flights aren't flying, but for anyone else doing those shorter flights, say from Dallas to Montreal or Dallas to London, those flights are going to be affected as well because the onward plane connections aren't there. And then those other routes are going to become more expensive because there's more demand on it rather than just the people flying between say Dallas and Montreal or Dallas and London.
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Indeed. And just looking at the scale of this, these big hub carriers that you just mentioned there have all made huge capacity cuts. I mean, I'm just looking at the list now. Emirates is down 40%. Qatar is down 62%, Etihad down 50%, Arabia is down 64%. I mean, this is a halving of their flying, isn't it?
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Yeah. And the other area that this hugely affects is Australasia and I think it's 75% of flights from Australasia into Europe go via one of these three main hubs which carry half a million passengers a day. So if you remember a few weeks ago when this was started, you had loads of people stuck there because they weren't staying there, they were trying to get on somewhere else. Now those people have all been moved out because they have put some aircraft back on. But the other area this is affecting is the rise in fuel prices and the lack of availability of fuel. So some of the bigger airlines, so KLM, Air France, British Airways, EasyJet, they have bought in the prices for jet fuel already, so they buy it ahead so they know where they are. For lower cost carriers, they don't have the resources to do that, so they just have to deal with the prices at the time. And that has led to quick price rises in some of the more budget airlines. The US airlines don't do that price planning, they just buy whatever's available. So they're being affected more quickly.
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And I mean, I'm just looking from personal experience, I looked at buying a flight to Spain in two weeks time and it is doubled within two or three days. And that has a. That for someone who doesn't necessarily have to travel, that has a chilling effect. But we do still have to travel. And to what degree are, I mean, we're just hearing from Karskin Brzeski a moment ago, to what degree these cost increases can or should be passed on to consumers. Because if your consumers can't afford to get on your planes, you're not going to have a business.
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F
Well, the routes around Europe into the United States are pretty full. People are still wanting to travel whilst the cost has gone up. Travel, as I wrote about, is something that we love doing and that really matters to people. What you're seeing though is people are becoming more hesitant to travel via those hubs because they just don't want to risk it being cancelled. And for businesses, they probably won't depend on those routes in future because who knows when this particular conflict will end. But then people will also say, well, what if it starts up again in a couple of years time, let's start planning our routes via Turkish Airlines, which they were probably the first ones to really develop the system before those Gulf states really took over and those Gulf carriers really took over. But then flights around Europe are full because people who would have considered going to Dubai on holiday or even going to Thailand or Vietnam or these other places that are linked via these, these hubs in the Gulf, they're not going there. So they are. They will pay those prices because they just want to get away and have their holidays.
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How much is this different from the pandemic? Because, I mean, the two points that people have been referring this crisis to, the comparison points have been the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the pandemic in 2020, and the way that, that reshaped the way that we travel, the way that we operate and the way that we, you know, the way that we work as well. What effect do you think that this is going to have? Because it feels more far reaching, but it also feels more manageable because, you know, we're not dealing with a virus. We're actually dealing with things that we can still move if we pivot.
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F
We are, although also dealing with the foreign policy of the U.S. administration, which often seems as chaotic as a virus. But the impact is probably, initially it was much closer to the ash cloud from ICELAND back in 2010, where it just shut down aviation for a while. Everyone had to deal with that. What I think we'll start to see, we have already started to see this. You're starting to see more point to point flights from, for example, British Airways have reopened up their route to Sri Lanka to Colombo. You have that new flight that goes direct to Melbourne. Actually there is a touchdown in Malaysia where they refuel. But you're going to see more of those sorts of flights where people don't have to get off and change planes.
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And that suggests that actually these larger airlines who depend on incredibly well calibrated schedules are very, very nimble at this kind of thing.
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So, I mean, the way those three carriers in the Gulf did this was they just had such good scheduling and they had such good crews. I mean, they are great airlines to travel on. So there's that whole background system that you didn't even notice going on. You noticed the service, but you didn't notice everything else going on. Those bigger airlines, I mean, I mean, I presume one of the reasons why the Colombo route is opened up is some of the capacity that had been taken up at that airport by those Gulf carriers is now available. So if you are an airline that has a fleet that is no longer flying to Dubai, for example, because BA has cancelled its flights to Dubai until the summer, you can reuse those aircraft, see how that that new route does, and then decide to double down on it if you want to. You'll also start to see those routes via Istanbul will probably start to pick up. And then there's other routes that people don't tend to think of. So if you want to go to Japan, a great airline to take from Europe is Finnair because they go over the top of Russia, whose airspace has been closed since 2022 to European and other Western carriers. So there are ways around it.
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Ash Bardwaj, journalist and author of why We Travel. Thank you so much for joining me in the studio. Still to come on today's programme, we
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learned once the presidential motorcade had dropped him off at 3764 Elvis Presley Boulevard that there was one thing Trump can indisputably better than his predecessor.
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It's Friday, so we'll have Andrew Muller's what We Learn still to come. This is the globalist
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craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office House View, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get the big picture broken down into thought provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Let's continue with today's newspapers. Joining me in the studio, Yossi Meckelburg, senior consulting fellow at the Middle east and North Africa Program at Chatham House. Good morning, Yossi. How are things?
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Well, it's great until you read the newspapers.
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Yes.
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Then it's all inspired, not so great.
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Okay, well, let's try and create a little balance. Let's start with the chaos and the what have you. We've spent the last, what, 21 minutes talking about the way that the whole world is recalibrating. And I think we came from the position in a couple of the interviews of saying if we were to start now, in a year's time, things would be better. But the article that you wanted to draw attention to was suggesting the absolute opposite, that instead of this being a neat and easy operation, this could be a very, very long and protracted conflict.
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Yeah, it's the Guardian by Rothston and the title is the Delusion of Easy Victory from the Air may have Seduced the UN into another War. And it actually goes back in history to 1921 and an Italian general, Giulio do, which already there had the idea, you know, those are the early days of airplanes. Basically, we have this new toy and we can sold. We don't have the trenches. It's only few years after the First World War, you know, the horrible war, the trenches. And we can solve everything. You know, this is also the time, of course of fascist Italy is about to happen. So he used it, you know, terrible metaphor. It is not enough to shoot down the birds in flight if you want, if you want to wipe out the species as terrible it sounds another way they start falling into this trap that you can solve, you know, through airstrike wars. And we see time and again and, you know, we saw only last June in Iran and with the Hezbollah in Lebanon. But back in history, the Germans tried to do it with London. And actually what it does something. It creates solidarity, it creates unity. Because it's not only. Even if you don't like is the case the regime in Iran and most Iranians really would like to see this regime go when they're attacked day after day. It's create actually it unites the nation.
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B
Indeed. And this article in the Guardian is one of those rare and brilliant pieces of writing where it asks people to look backwards, which is something that, dare I say, the way that history moves at the pace that it does now, it's actually quite difficult, if not impossible to suddenly get context when events are moving so quickly. But this article is very, very good at talking about, as you say, the bombing of a civilian infrastructure will cause a population to revolt. But it doesn't. And this article is drawing a direct comparison between this Italian General Giulio Due, who writes in 19, and the US Secretary of Defense. Or war, depending on which way we're playing it, of Pete Hegseth saying that actually they are hanging too much on the destruction of civilian morale. And this is something that we have not seen in Iran. Civilian morale, regardless of what entanglements and wars it gets involved in, and despite the fact that there is a large proportion of the population which despises the regime, civilian morale is an incredibly powerful thing in Iran.
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E
Well, yes, and this is a nation that almost used this kind of resilience. It's also. They're afraid of their own regime. They're on the receiving end of this bombardment. Only two months ago, they were in the streets. And in short, we thought, you know, by, you know, probably at least 7,000. We know, but probably way more than this were killed by their own government. And then when help was promised, it never arrived. And then, you know, something along this arrived, it was too late. So they don't trust but all the idea of this, as the article said, the bombastic language of, you know, we are going to use even the name of this operation, Epic Fairy. And actually the Hebrew one version is the Lion's Roar. It's all of this. But the end of the day, you don't make changes only through bombing countries. And the thing is, many people makes a lot of that. As you said, the Defense Secretary has military experience. He was a low rank officer. And there is huge difference between tactical and strategic.
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Let's move on to an article in the Financial Times that you've picked up. We are focusing now on the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine. And Vladimir Putin now asking his oligarch chums to chip in.
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Yes.
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And I like the idea that he requests from the oligarchs. And it reminds me of the Godfather, you know, when Marlon Brando is Don Corleone, say I'm going to make him an offer he can't refuse. So I think this is kind of the offers that he make to the oligarchs. This war is more than four years old. The cost of, you know, the budget, the defense budget is around 120 billion pounds a year. It went up by 42%. And there is no peace deal or ceasefire deal in the offing. This cost a lot of money. They already impose a windfall tax once and increase VAT 10%. Then the idea of another windfall tax at the end of the day, and this relates to the previous item, wars are very expensive. They tend not to end quickly. They're the exact opposite. What those who embark on them expect the worst. On the best case scenario, it will be short and successful. They become prolonged and not that successful and then become very costly. And you need to find money. The problem, some of the older oligarchs, in terms of money, much of their assets has been frozen around the world.
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Indeed. I mean that's that idea that the, the sanctions that have been imposed on the Russian oligarchs does not seem to have changed their lives manifestly.
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E
Yeah. And some suggest even that they can give few billions. But these are a very temporary measure. Even the oligarchs and a lot of money. And they can't take Chelsea Football Club back and pay for the war. So this is, it's a very temporary measure. For me, it's actually a demonstration of almost of desperation. If I would think, if I'd been in Kyiv now and think maybe Putin is quite desperate if this is his last stand in terms of financing the war.
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B
Finally, let's look at an article in the New York Times that follows on from Timothee Chalamet talking about the death of opera and the death of ballet. This has obviously prompted a sort of a flurry of writers and spokespeople rallying round the operatic and ballet culture. And this article talks about how contemporary opera, which sometimes can make people break into rashes, doesn't need to be that hard. It doesn't need, it needs to be more accessible.
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I'm very cautious approach this topic because you know so much more than me.
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I really don't. But I have just spent seven hours watching Wagner. So you are talking to someone who's got the, you know, who's got stamina. But a contemporary opera is something that often can be one of those things that puts even the most die hard fan of opera off.
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It attracts my attention also because the approach to art because you know one of the things they talk about in, in this article that back in the 80s and 90s oppos became quite popular. It was on TV and radio. Forgive me and then let me pass.
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You'll see a glass of water while we try and rescue the article. The article in the New York Times is talking about the idea of how in the 70s and 80s you'd have opera singers who were major superstars. I mean I think we all remember there's when Luciano Pavarotti sang in Kyde park in London in the 1980s for PR Princess Diana. And it was a massive event and people really got into it.
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E
But even the 1990 World cup, you know the, the three tenors and all of this. But this brings for me the question, yes, modern opera is even more difficult to listen as you said and some of the, you know, like at music that it's not easy to focus. But for me the question is, you know, talking now that only 1% of American adults have attended opera in the, in the last year, you're certain, certain parts of art generally are becoming not accessible because they're very elite one and said either you can't understand how sophisticated they are or you know what, look for something else. Listen to pop music or you know, kind of painting that you won't understand. And I think it's really a balance between actually make it more accessible for people and maybe also education about it.
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B
I think we all forget that we've all got ears. Yossi Meckelburg, thank you so much for joining me in the studio. Yossi is senior consulting fellow at the Middle east and North Africa program at Chatham House and was today's paper reviewer on the Globalist. Now a quick look at some of the other stories we're keeping an eye on today. President Trump has said he will delay the bombing of Iranian energy plants by 10 days. He said the decision was at Iran's request and that talks with Tehran were going well. Meanwhile, Israel says it's carried out another wave of airstrikes in the heart of the Iranian capital, Tehran, with the military saying they were targeting regime infrastructure. The Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has attempted to reassure people in the country about the supply of fuel. Fuel stations have been reporting higher demand and prices have been rising. Mr. Albanese said any shortfalls in supply were down to panic buying. And the White House says a population decline in some of America's major cities is down to the success of President Trump's border security policies. In the latest U.S. census, the three metropolitan areas with the steepest decline are all located along the US Southern border with Mexico. This is THE Globalist. Stay tuned. Now, the woman who was scared of sleeping and dreamt every night of a city that no longer existed. The woman who was searching for her husband in a mass grave. The woman on a revenge mission. Well, these are just some of the subjects of the Ukrainian poet Yulia Ily Luca in a new series of vignettes, My Women. By focusing on the war's impact on the women left behind, Yulia presents a unique portrait of displacement, grief and rage. Monocle's Anita Riota sat down with her and began by asking her why she chose to write this book.
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C
I always say I wish I had never written this book and I wish I stay at home in Kharkiv, in my neighborhood called Nosaltivka Pivnichna Saltyivka, which at the moment is one of the most damaged areas in Kharkiv. And I wish all my friends still alive. But it goes how it goes. And how did I start it? One evening I was sitting at the kitchen in my temporary home, already not in Kharkiv, and I wrote down a story about a woman who was afraid of going to bed naked without underwear because she was afraid to be found naked after her death if Russian measles hit her apartment building. And I have a bad habit. I very often post my poetry or my short stories on my social media on my Facebook page and I immediately posted it. And next morning I realized how many reactions and comments from Ukrainian women this story and almost all of them commented this story is about me. This is my story. This is me.
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I
If you begin these stories, I just have the book here with me, it says, you know, the woman who never welcomed her husband back. And that's the beginning of one, the beginning of another is the woman who returned to the town of her childhood did not recognize it. You're always referring to these women as the woman that did this, the woman that was this. Why did you choose to represent their stories that way?
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C
Actually, I did it without any purpose, without any intention. I just wrote down these stories as they came to me. And at the moment of writing, I didn't understand why all my women didn't have names. But I already understand this now because this makes my stories. Every woman, not only in Ukraine, but also abroad, in Europe, in other countries, can imagine herself in my women's shoes. And every woman can ask herself, what would I do if a missile hit my home?
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I
I also wanted to ask you. There's a sense in a lot of the firsthand accounts from Ukrainians about their experience living through this horrific war that the stories focus a lot on resilience and bravery and endurance. Something that I was really moved by in the book is that your stories also reflect rage, sorrow, desperation, the other range of emotions. Why do you think it's important to depict stories that showcase everything someone can feel and not just, you know, this picture of the resilient Ukrainian.
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C
You know, I strongly believe that the main task for all Ukrainian literature now is to speak about the war in Ukraine, about the fact that the war is still going on everywhere in Europe. Where is it possible just to remind that the war is going on and actually Ukraine is not sacrifice. We don't need pity, we just need support because Ukraine is still fighting.
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I
What is it that you want the reader of my women to take away from this book?
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In this book, I wanted to remind, as I said, that the war in Ukraine is still going on. And war in Ukraine isn't only a battlefield. It also hold on in rear. And women also have their fight because during war time, many Ukrainian women became head of the family and they have to decide how to survive with their children. Children.
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B
That was the Ukrainian poet Yulia Ilyuka there talking to Anita Riota and her new book, My Women is on bookshelves now. Here's Monocle Radio. Eight 37 in Vienna. We head to the Austrian capital now for an update of news from Central Europe. Alexei Korolov is Monocle's Vienna correspondent. He joins me now. Good morning, Alexei. How's Vienna looking?
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J
Very rainy, very gray. You know, we've had days of blissful spring, many, many days. And then Suddenly it's back to the rain and the grayness.
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B
Okay. But you may, you make it sound rather beautifully melancholy in the way you describe it.
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J
Well, yeah, I mean, it is still beautiful.
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B
Wonderful. Glad to hear it. What news from where you are?
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J
Well, you know, most of the stories I wanted to talk about connect to the previous segment we just heard. You know, of course, Russia's war in Ukraine is still the biggest topic in Europe, in the world. And so one of the things I wanted to mention is of course, right next door in Hungary, you know, there's an election looming where Viktor Orban, the longtime leader of the country, is facing. He's probably the biggest challenge in his, in his long 16 year career or 16 years at the head of the state. And that's, that's one of the biggest stories in Central Europe at the moment. And, and of course, Russia's war in Ukraine features there prominently because Orban has framed the election as this stark choice between war and peace, arguing that he's one for peace, he's the one that can keep Hungary safe. Whereas his opponent, Petr Magyar, the biggest opposition figure to emerge in Hungary in years, or been saying that he's going to drag Hungary further into the conflict. Conflict obviously something that Peter Magya, the opposition leader, something that he denies. So basically the war in Ukraine is the biggest topic there. And just recently Hungary blocked and 90 billion euro package deal loan, EU loan for Ukraine because an oil pipeline, Russian oil pipeline, Russia running through Ukraine was damaged in the war. And Hungary is saying they're not going to allow the money to be loaned to Ukraine until that pipeline is repaired and the flows of oil and gas are restored. So that just goes to show how much the war features in Central Europe and in Hungary in this election in particular.
- [40:21]
B
And indeed we're seeing the things being being played out in, in the media which are also reflecting just how, how an intense an experience this is because earlier on this week, I think it's the end of last week, a story was published saying that foreign ministers in Hungary were passing the confidential briefings and conversations that were being held behind closed doors at the European Union. The Hungarians were passing them directly to Moscow. It now appears that the investigative reporter Shabolt Pani, who covered this, has now actually been charged with escort espionage.
- [40:55]
F
Absolutely right.
- [40:55]
J
Yeah, this just came in. This basically is from a few hours ago, which again is another indication of the Auburn government being, well, not exactly on the ropes but very much on the defensive. And the journalist was accused of spying for Ukraine. So again, Russia's war in Ukraine right there. This just shows how much is at stake in this election. And of course, the big question is, you know, if there's a change, a political change in Hungary, what's going to happen next? Because as in Russia, as in Slovakia, as in many countries with authoritative governments, you know, the Orbans, cronies and friends and you know, people connected to them have obviously become, become an integral part of the economy of the way the country is run. So, you know, how to disentangle all of that if there's a change. That's the big question at the moment.
- [42:00]
B
Okay, let's finish this on something slightly more positive and more enjoyable. If we head to Vienna and after you've had a good lunch at the Cafe Landmann, you head over to the Kunsthistorisches Museum where there is a very, very good exhibition on.
- [42:13]
J
I believe that's absolutely right, yes. I mean, Kunsthistorisches is one of the best museums in the world and one of the best in Vienna for sure. So right now, as of this week, there's a new exhibition featuring works by two 18th century Italian masters, Canaletto and Bellotto, who are famous for this incredibly massive cityscapes of Venice, of Vienna, of Dresden, of London as well, that, you know, struck viewers at the time in the 18th century as incredibly realistic. And they still look very realistic realistic. So that's, that's at the consistoris at the moment. I haven't been, I have to say, but I'm very much looking forward to, to going there and, and exploring that.
- [43:00]
B
One tip, actually, we will squeeze in time for one more thing. One thing, you have been, you haven't been to the exhibition at the Viennese Museum, but you have actually been to Euroshop. Tell us what that is.
- [43:09]
J
That's absolutely right.
- [43:10]
D
Yeah.
- [43:10]
J
So Euro Shop is, is the world's largest trade fair for the retail industry. So that means, you know, manufacturers of, of shelving systems, of, of shopping trolleys, of lighting systems and so on and so on. All of this comes under the name shop fitting, which I find rather unfortunate because it sounds very much like shoplifting. And you know, in fact, you saw that word everywhere at the trade fair and you know, and once you read it as shoplifting, it was very hard to answer it. But anyway, it's the biggest trade fair for the retail industry. And I was there for a story that is now in our April issue of Monocle magazine and it was just very interesting. And I think this is something that Monocle really excels at. You know, we show this world behind, you know, the workings behind something. And this was like, to me, a window onto how the retail industry works, how shops work, you know, where shelves come from, who makes them, all the different manufacturers. And it was just incredible to see the variety, the sheer variety of things, things that just go into creating the retail experience that we don't normally think about when we go into a shop, but there's just so much behind it. And one of the things that I really liked was that, you know, obviously, you know, there's all this new technology coming in, AI and computerization of everything and so on, but of course, there's also space for, for the analog. So, you know, the shopping trolley, mannequins, stuff like that, that. So it was really encouraging and really good to see manufacturers still making those things. And, you know, they will be part of our retail experience for many, many years to come.
- [44:54]
B
Alexei Korulov, Monocle's Vienna correspondent in Vienna. Thank you for joining us on the Globalist.
- [45:03]
A
Iq, EQ and AI, three components key to the craft of innovation. Innovation at ubs, because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age, you need a partner with decades of experience, endless passion for the work, and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies. Bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence, all to elevate you. UBS banking is our craft.
- [45:41]
B
It's time now, because it's Friday, for what we Learned. Here's Andrew Muller.
- [45:52]
G
We learned this week, and not for the first time, that if you really want to know how things are going to pan out in the near term, you could do a great deal worse than tune in weekly to this, the what We Learned news review on Monocle Radio every Friday. Because as will already have been learned by morbidly attentive listeners, like there's any other kind who would sooner strangle their own cat than miss a single installment. We posited last week that US Secretary of Defense, who thinks he is Secretary of War but isn't, and people should stop calling him that, Pete Hegseth had all the makings of a fall guy should current American air endeavors in the Middle east continue deviating from the plan to the apparently limited extent that there ever was one? And we learned this week just how perspicacious we were.
- [46:43]
H
Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up and you said, let's do it because you can't let them have a nuclear weapon.
- [46:50]
G
We learned of this portent of Hegseth's wretchedly inevitably ushering beneath the bus amid one of those extremely Normal gatherings convened regularly by US President Donald Trump, at which his various oleaginous underlings queue up to tell him how bloody marvellous he is. We will be needing the studio gong and the mallet. Hit it.
- [47:15]
J
Thank you. Well, first and most importantly, thank you
- [47:20]
B
to President Trump, whose vision and courage
- [47:23]
J
and determination Nation has achieved something that if you had predicted it 15 months ago, people would have said it was impossible.
- [47:31]
G
If you next.
- [47:36]
B
I'm living the wildest dream you could possibly imagine, sir.
- [47:39]
F
But it's thanks to you.
- [47:43]
G
There was a goodly deal more where this came from. But we learned that while visiting Tennessee, as indeed he was the primary president, had other priorities.
- [47:52]
H
You know, I'm going to see Graceland after this, I think. Is that right? I love Elvis.
- [47:58]
G
Well, who doesn't?
- [48:00]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [48:04]
C
We're caught in a trap.
- [48:08]
G
We learned once the presidential motorcade had dropped him off at 3764 Elvis Presley Boulevard that there was one thing Trump can indisputably do better than his predecessor.
- [48:20]
H
You never know. These are hard to sign, but they came out pretty good.
- [48:24]
B
Is that the first guitar you signed?
- [48:25]
H
Just about now, Biden couldn't do that. He'd have to send it out to be signed.
- [48:32]
G
But we learned that amid discharging these vital duties of a wartime commander in chief, and who can forget Harry Truman enjoying the Coney Island Mirror Maze during the Battle of Okinawa? Something about Graceland was prompting in its visitor a certain reflective melancholy.
- [48:49]
E
Would you imagine someday, in the very distant future, people making a similar pilgrimage to Mar a Lago?
- [48:55]
H
Well, I don't know. It's something I could never say, which
- [49:00]
G
was pretty strange when you think about it, as Graceland and Mar a Lago are obviously very, very different places. One is, Yes, the Gordy Mansion, called home by a bloated, bequeathed personification of American decadence, who spent his twilight days screaming at the television while an entourage of unctuous supplicants cleaned up his messes. And the other is where Elvis Presley lived. We learned, however, that it was perfectly okay for the President to be interrupting his golf by visiting chintzy tourist attractions while the country was at war, because it was all going just tremendously well.
- [49:50]
H
Yes, it's a perfect, amazing thing. And furthermore, you know, I don't like to say this. We've won this. This war has been won.
- [49:59]
G
And we learned that even that wasn't all.
- [50:02]
H
They're going to make a deal. They did something yesterday that was amazing, actually. They gave us a press present, and the President arrived today, and it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. And I'm not going to tell you what that president is, but it was a very significant prize.
- [50:23]
G
We have not learned as of this recording exactly what said present was, but would earnestly counsel President Trump that if it is or in any way resembles a large wooden horse, do not, repeat, not haul it inside the gates. We learned, however, that others amidst or adjacent to the US Administration were pondering Plan B, specifically the seizure of Hag island, the Iranian oil port lodged near the top of the Persian Gulf. We got two Marine Expeditionary Units sailing to this island. We did Iwo Jima.
- [50:57]
B
We can do this.
- [50:58]
G
From which we learned that Senator Lindsey Graham, for it was he may possess an incomplete comprehension of the Pacific Theatre of the Second World War. For we learned, when we troubled to look it up, that the seizure of Iwo Jima, which is about 1200 kilometres further from Japan than Hag island is from Iran, took the US Marine Corps, capable force though it was, and doubtless is, five weeks at the cost of 7,000 dead and 19,000 wounded. And we, for one whimsical news monologue, are unpersuaded that either the American public would stand for such casualties or that the American President would appreciate the disruption so many funerals would make to his usual busy workday schedule. But. We learned of one decisive victory, specifically in the annual European Tree of the Year contest, which we are annoyed we've only just found out about, as this could nicely have padded out several of these monologues previously, especially as last year's was the subject of a full blown ruckus, if not fraca, between Poland and Spain. Seriously, look it up. It was a whole thing. Oh, my God. We learned that the 2026 winner is a Lithuanian oak tree, ending four consecutive years of Polish domination of a competition which is apparently regarded as a sort of arboreal Eurovision. And if you think we're not fad on a succession of pertinent puns, you must be new here. So there's save all your kisses for tree, obviously.
- [52:34]
B
Oh, no.
- [52:35]
G
Puppet on a string. E bark.
- [52:37]
B
Jesus Christ.
- [52:38]
G
Every way that I can D Wood. Diggy Loo, Diggy Leyland, Cyprus. Johnny Loganberry. Is that anything for Monocle Radio? Amanda, Andrew Mullet.
- [52:57]
B
Thank you, Andrew. You're listening to the Globalist. Finally, this week, the Monocle team have been in Hong Kong publishing a newspaper, no less, to tell us more. James Chambers is Monocle's Asia editor. He joins us on the line from Bangkok. And in the studio, Sophie Monaghan Coombs. Monocle's associate editor for culture, both having a very close hand in what happened and the publication and the research. James, let's come to you. Very good afternoon to you from Bangkok. But you were in Hong Kong for the launch.
- [53:29]
K
I was, Emma, good morning. Yes, we had the launch on Monday. It's a special preview for the Hong Kong audience before our paper goes global next week. And it was Art Basel week in Hong Kong, so it was very busy. A lot of parties, a lot of events, a lot of launches and we had our own little get together on Wednesday night at the, at the bureau and shop in Wanchai.
- [53:52]
B
So the paper's called the Hong Kong Correspondent. How did it to come come about?
- [53:56]
K
Well, I mean, it's something that we've been talking about for a, for a while, but I guess the project officially launched at the beginning of this year. I mean, it's a newspaper. It's the first city based newspaper we've done. So it's all about Hong Kong and it's actually the, the biggest newspaper we've ever produced. So It's a whopping 72 pages. You know, our readers and listeners will know that we do regular ones in the summer and, and in the winter and some for Salone and. But this one's the first one about a city and it's, yeah, it's, it's quite, quite something all about Hong Kong. It's something we've been working on since the beginning of January. It came out, you know, this week, so it's not like a normal newspaper. I do feel, you know, sympathy with some of our peers who produce these kinds of things every day. You know, we've been working on it for two and a half months now. But yes, it's, it's got a bit of a longer shelf life and I encourage everyone to go pick up a copy.
- [54:54]
B
Thank you very much indeed. James. Sophie, let's bring you in on this one. Associate editor for culture and then charged with doing the culture section of the Hong Kong Correspondent. Where did you begin? Because as James has just said, it's not a newspaper insofar as it's not a 24 hour ephemeral thing, but it does have to be contemporary.
- [55:13]
L
Yes, I think for us we chose some things that are sort of well ingrained in Hong Kong, in the city, but something new is happening with them. So I had a really enjoyable day watching a dress rehearsal of the Hong Kong Ballet, which is really, you know, it's been around for a long time and it has this extraordinary artistic director and it's really amping up its work at the moment and bringing in new audiences. So that was really wonderful. And there are, there are art bars in Hong Kong this week as well, which I can talk a little bit about. And then also visiting an area in the city called Won Truk Hang, which is kind of traditionally a very industrial area. And in recent years, it's kind of been shifting a little bit. And these kind of vacant lots in these big industrial towers have been more and more been occupied by arts organizations, by galleries. And there's a brand new salon space, exhibition area, this new place called Gold. And so we, I had a really great day doing a tour of all of those with this amazing curated curator called Tobias Berger. And he showed me all of those things. So for us, it was really about kind of highlighting the things that Hong Kong's always done really well that it's known for. But what is sort of happening now that's taking them to the next level.
- [56:34]
B
And this is something else that you were focusing on as well, isn't it, James? The idea of looking at something that Hong Kong does really well, but, but what 2026 is, is, is casting over it. So if we just look, we have a whole idea about a good sportswear label, a good running label, how, how Hong Kongers Dr. And indeed a lovely thing about the Star Ferry, which is an absolute constant in Hong Kong, but needed a little bit of. A bit of spotlight shining on it.
- [57:04]
K
Well, that's right, Emma. And what I was particularly excited about working on this project is that it gave us the opportunity to bring in and fly in, you know, people like Sophie, who spent a week here, and our very own Rob Bound, who came for another week too. You know, Sophie had a great time and very, very ticked off a lot of things in her week. I'm so impressed by the number of stories she reported. And Rob did some amazing stories on things that have always been there. But, you know, he's got fresh eyes, he's got a fresh perspective, and a very, very, very entertaining way of spinning a yarn. And so we got him to go and get dressed by Ascot Chang, go and try on a new sportswear brand and go kind of jogging around Hong Kong. You know, he went, he had a night on the town. I mean, Hong Kong is a very famous city for its nightlife, but it's been, you know, down in the dumps at the beginning of this decade. And it's coming back now. It's coming back strongly. There are, you know, hot new restaurants, you know, people are remembering that this used to be a really fun place to go out. And who better to write a report on that than Rob?
- [58:17]
B
Finally, Sophie, let's bring you back in. We have but 15 seconds to talk about the ballet. Go for it.
- [58:21]
L
Yes. I mean, Hong Kong ballet. Yeah. I watched a rehearsal of Cinderella, and I think the thing that they're doing that's really interesting is they are just trying to get as many people to come in and watch ballet as possible. I really enjoyed the artistic director Septim describing to me how one of his sort of key demographics that he's targeting really intently are women who come to the ballet quite a lot and bring their boyfriend for the first time. And this came off the back of having seen a ballet this week and taking my partner, who it was his first time.
- [58:55]
B
Is everyone still talking?
- [58:56]
L
Everyone is still talking. I think he'll come back at some point. But he was like, I know those men are in the audience. I'm gonna try and get them to come back. And what they're doing this week, which is happening tomorrow, so I recommend it, if anyone is in town for Art Basel Hong Kong, is that they have this new performance called State of Wonder, which will be going throughout the fair floor. So I recommend that.
- [59:16]
B
Sophie Monaghan, Coombs and James Chambers, thank you so much for joining us. And that's all the time we have for today's program. The warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers and our studio manager. And the globalist is back on Monday. For now, from me, Emma Nelson. Goodbye. Thanks for listening. Have a great weekend.
- [59:36]
A
With ubs, you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies, innovative approaches, and unexpected opportunities, leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter. Delivered with passion, care, and unmatched expertise. Because it's about rising with the dawn each day, knowing that we can do even better. That's what banking is to us. Not just work, but a craft. UBS advice is our craft.