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- [00:04]
UBS Narrator
Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all, UBS advice is our craft.
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Chris Chermak
You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 14th of May, 2026 on Monocle Radio. The Globalist in association with U. Live from London. This is the Globalist. I'm Chris Chermak. Coming up and they look forward to trade and doing business. And it's going to be totally reciprocal on our behalf. So I really look very much forward to our discussion. It's a big discussion. There are those that say this is maybe the biggest summit ever. Donald Trump claims the US and China have a great future together as he meets with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Spring will head to Taiwan, a country watching this summit extremely closely. We'll also look forward to talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C. designed to strengthen a ceasefire that has buckled severely. We'll also head to the B9 summit of Ukrainian neighbors in Romania. And after that, Is there life on Mars or anywhere else out there? Well, we just found another 11,000 planets to investigate. Tyra Schubart is here, here to explain. We'll also get the newspapers and film news and we'll check in with our man in Vienna for Eurovision, Fernando Augusto Pacheco. That's all up ahead on the Glob list. Live from London. First, a look at what else is happening in the news. Cuba's energy minister has warned the country is completely out of fuel, oil and diesel amid a blockade from the United States. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Has called an emergency meeting after gunfire rang out in the country's Senate yesterday. And Kevin Warsh has been confirmed by the U.S. senate to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Stay tuned to Monocle Radio throughout the day for more on those stories. But first, the summit underway between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing is being watched closely around the world, but probably nowhere more closely than in Taiwan, an island whose fate has seemed determined not only by its own defensive capabilities, but by an American willingness to support its sovereignty, if we can call it that, not its full independence from China. Over the next two days, Xi Jinping is expected to press his American counterpart to reduce military support for Taiwan. And the question on everyone's mind is whether Trump will agree in order to get a deal on trade, Iran, and other priority areas. Well, let's head to Taipei now, where I'm joined by William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group. And, William, as we watch this summit get underway, some pleasant words between Xi and Trump. What is the mood in Taiwan?
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William Yang
I think the mood in Taipei in general is still quite anxious and on edge simply because of the potential implications that the outcome of this summit is going to have on the national security and really the future of Taiwan. We know that the Chinese president has already made it very, very clear in his initial remarks, based on Chinese readouts, that he views the Taiwan issue as one of the most important component in US China relations. And he essentially also made it as, you know, view basically as a issue that could make or break the US China stability.
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Chris Chermak
And, William, do you have a sense of why Xi is pushing this now? Is this just about him sort of sensing an opportunity, a weakness from the Trump administration, a willingness to make a deal?
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William Yang
I think it's both. You know, like, coming into the summit, China really feels quite confident that a lot of things in the world are going their way. While the US Is being bogged down in the Middle east and unable to extract itself from the conflict against Iran, China continues to be able to really focus on strengthening itself. And that is exactly what China needs and wants. And at the same time, it also feels like Trump is not really the type of traditional US Leader that Beijing has been dealing with over the last few decades. Instead of really focusing on competing with China across the board, Trump really adopts a much narrower view on US China competition. He largely views the competition in relationship with China through the lens of trade. And after China realizing that its dominance over rare earth minerals can become a very useful weapon to hurt and harm the US Last year, China now feels that they hold very strong cards to be able to contain the US Ability to try to hurt China. So, you know, I think coming into this meeting, really, Xi Jinping feels more confident than ever when dealing with Trump compared to almost a decade ago when the last two. When the two of them last met on Chinese home soil.
- [06:08]
Chris Chermak
Well, at the same time, William, Donald Trump has obviously been hawkish towards China in the past. So is his administration. There will be others in the administration that are more hawkish. So given that, I mean, how big are the fears in Taipei that some kind of grand bargain would be reached that actually, you know, leads to a major shift in Taiwan policy from the
- [06:30]
William Yang
U.S. there's definitely that constant anxiety at the background for all the officials here because of the more transactional deal making foreign policy outlook that President Trump has adopted since he returned to the White House last year. But I think at the same time, Taipei is cleared eye about its leverage in this triangle relationship, which is the position that it occupies in the global AI supply chain. It understands very well that the fact that 95% of the world's advanced semiconductor chips are still manufactured from Taiwan and the fact that the US Continues to need these chips in order to stay ahead in the intensifying competition with China, the Trump administration will undoubtedly will have to take the role that Taiwan plays in this very important frontier for the Trump administration when they are considering potential demands that China might put on the table vis a vis Taiwan. So, you know, as long as the concentration of these semiconductor manufacturing continues to remain in Taiwan, then I think Taipei would still feel somewhat confident that the US cannot just simply abandon Taiwan in an instance if they still want to stay ahead in this intensifying AI competition with China.
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Chris Chermak
So Taiwan does have leverage when it comes to chips. But at the same time, William, I wonder if there are conversations in Taipei about shifting away from the United States. I mean, this is something we've seen. I'm thinking of Ukraine as well, which has kind of stopped relying on the US but is nonetheless holding off Russia at the moment. Is there some expectation in Taipei that even if they're on their own, they can, you know, put up a pretty strong defensive force? I mean, for that matter, also, Chinese military leadership are in shambles right now.
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Alison Mutler
Right?
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William Yang
Exactly. I think, you know, the interesting thing is that the uncertainty that the Trump administration has injected into the relationship between Taiwan and the US has in fact prompted the opposition party here to advocate for Taipei needing to resume some sort of dialogue and exchange with Beijing in order to reduce the risk of Taiwan becoming a pawn in the US China competition. So we saw the leader of the main opposition party, kmt, went to Beijing last month to meet with Xi Jinping. And Xi continues to be repeating this rhetoric that Taiwan also needs to seize its own agency by, you know, not only purely relying on the US but rather adopting a more balanced approach in between the US and China. But obviously compared to most of the other countries, or even compared to Ukraine, because of the lack of international recognition as a sovereign state, Taiwan doesn't really have much more other option beyond the two great powers. So I think the conversation here will remain that between Beijing and Washington, the US Seems to still be more reliable because of the lack of intent to conquer Taiwan. But at the same time, there's still going to be constant fear and concern about the Trump administration at some point agreeing to potentially limit the US Support for Taiwan because of their preference for trying to reach a trade agreement or deal with Beijing over the next few years.
- [10:12]
Chris Chermak
William Yang, senior Northeast Asia Analyst for the International Crisis Group in Taipei, thank you very much for joining us today. This is the Globalist. It is coming up on 910 in Beirut, 710 here in London. A second round of talks is due to take place in Washington in the coming days between delegations from Israel and Lebanon aimed at reaching a longer term end to a conflict between the two nations. The trouble is that even with a ceasefire currently in place, Israel has shown little restraint in building a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, while Lebanon's government does not speak for the Hezbollah militants that are actually fighting Israel. So what exactly is being negotiated? Well, I'm joined now by Yossi Meckelberg, senior consulting Fellow at the MENA program at Chatham House. And from Beirut, by Nara Makhran Tatala, correspondent at the National's Beirut Bureau. Yossi, let me start with you here in the studio. As I said there, there is a ceasefire in place at the moment, but to what extent, if any, has that actually limited Israel's actions?
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Yossi Mekelberg
Good morning, Chris. I think we redefined the term ceasefire. It's not much of a ceasefire if the fire doesn't cease. And there is ongoing military operations by the IDF and attacks by Hezbollah both on IDF forces in the south of Lebanon and into Israel. So it's a bit like similar to Gaza. It's the escalation which is very much welcome both in Lebanon, in Gaza. But there is no ceasefire as we understand, a ceasefire. However, I think this is positive. This is the third round of negotiation. It takes place under the hospice of the United States. It means the United States puts its, its power behind it. So I think this is, and we see also that the delegation this time been reinforced. If the last meeting was between the ambassador in the US the Israeli and Lebanese, this time there is almost reinforcement, diplomatic reinforcement, I must add, from Lebanon and from Israel. So it's more senior and also more technical in the sense of more going into the details. So this is important, but I think the most important thing in this negotiation is to stop looking at Israel versus Lebanon, Israel versus Hezbollah. It is basically a triangle here.
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Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Actually.
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Yossi Mekelberg
The Lebanese government and the Israeli government have the same interest to reduce the influx of Hezbollah, to end the war, to end the occupation by, by Israelis and moving first towards a proper ceasefire. A long one. And then in the future to look into a peace agreement between the two countries.
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Chris Chermak
Nada. To bring you in on that point, if Israel and the Lebanese government at least theoretically have the same goals here, they do want peace, will there be any more significant dialogue between the government and Hezbollah this time around that could make peace talks more meaningful?
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Nada Makhran Tatala
Yes. So, you know, as you said, the Lebanese government, Hezbollah is now involved in those negotiations. And Hezbollah's position has been clear. They're not going to even speak about any sorts of disarmament plan with the Lebanese states unless Israeli troops withdraw from southern Lebanon, which there does not seem like they're planning to. They build this so called buffer zone from which anyone is barred to access. Fellow colleagues were killed trying to access this yellow zone. The Lebanese state is not able to access this buffer zone. And you know, it is very difficult to even discuss like the idea of extending the ceasefire when villages in southern Lebanon are being completely raised, when Israel is bringing bulldozers to destroy those villages. You know, if you watch satellite images from those villages, there's nothing left. And this destruction, most of the destruction has happened after the ceasefire was agreed. So it is very complicated, you know, to negotiate any sorts of long lasting truth or peace agreement when this is happening on the ground. And just to tell you a bit of what's the feeling on the ground in Lebanon, because I've been covering a lot, I've been reporting a lot on the ground. No one is even thinking that there's a ceasefire right now. I was in the south yesterday, I was asking like, how do you feel about a ceasefire? They're like, why are you even talking about a ceasefire? There's no ceasefire. No one even mentioned the direct talks tomorrow. That's not even on people's minds. And so since just this week I've covered the killing of a family of nine Sacsaki, which is far away from the front line. It's in southern Lebanon, but it's not in the front line. I've covered the killing of Lebanese civil defense members who were killed before yesterday, whom I knew personally and who are not Hezbollah affiliated. So I've covered the killing and I've been to so many funerals of civilians since the ceasefire was. The so called ceasefire was announced on April 16. And you know, more than 400 people were killed during this time. So on the ground it really does not feel like there's a ceasefire. And you know, people's hope are very. There's no hope that it will ever reach a long lasting truth.
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Chris Chermak
Yossi, to bring you in on that. I mean, Nada speaks very passionately about her reporting in southern Lebanon. What is your sense of what Israel is actually trying to do at this point? I mean, could they remove themselves from southern Lebanon again as part of these peace talks or are they frankly trying to, well, either fully occupy the south again or create an area that is completely uninhabitable?
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Yossi Mekelberg
There is always the fear that Israel will repeat the same mistake that is done so many times and try to entrench the occupation. There is an obsession with the security zone, the only security that that Israel can have from Lebanon if the Lebanese government is actually in full control
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Fernando Augusto Pacheco
of
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Yossi Mekelberg
Lebanon and off the border with Israel. So Israel to be a bit less Israel as we know it right now, or at least under Netanyahu. Israel tried to occupy almost entire Lebanon in 1982. It didn't bring security. It brings 18 years of occupation and losing soldiers every year. And at the same time, the Hezbollah became stronger and stronger in Lebanon. It should give Hezbollah less pretext why it exists because Hezbollah, not that I really think that they care much about the Palestinians, but or even the occupied. They need a reason to exist, a reason they're supported by Iran. But Israel need to help the Lebanese government to remove some of this pretext to empower a the Lebanese government, but the international community help to build the Lebanese army that is capable actually to maintain security and then of course disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a political movement within Lebanon. It's not going to disappear. But Israel needs to understand because Israel has only one modus of rendi is using force and using more force. If it doesn't work and it always fails, it doesn't guarantee the security of the north. Sometimes there is a place to use military force, but it can't be the only way. That's why the negotiations are so important. I understand why people in the south of Lebanon are so despondent and even apathetic to this negotiation. They don't believe that anything but that's a return for leadership. And if the leadership, both in Israel and Lebanon, in this case especially Netanyahu, doesn't understand it, it has to come from the United States.
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Chris Chermak
Nada. To bring you in on one of those points. I mean, there was maybe a point where the Lebanese government was looking strong enough and people were angry enough with Hezbollah that something might change, that Hezbollah could be disarmed. But I do wonder if we've passed that point is the fact that Hezbollah is now resisting Israel, increasing their popularity again, similar to how Yossi was describing the last occupation.
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Nada Makhran Tatala
Yes, you know, exactly. I think when the war started, there were lots of resentment against Hezbollah because, you know, Lebanon is a polarized society. There was so a big part of the population who does not support Hezbollah. And even within the Shia community, they were, people were not understanding why, you know, Hezbollah joined the war in support of Iran. But I think now, you know, since everything that happened since this so called buffer zone was created, since, you know, more than 3,900 people were killed, among them many civilians, this has given even more arguments for Hezbollah, for their resistance, what they say, or their resistance, again, what they're calling is their enemy. So it does have reinforced to some extent its popularity. And the Lebanese state is in an impossible position. So we're asking the Lebanese state to disarm Hezbollah, which is still, you know, a powerful militia which is really entrenched within the Lebanese state at a very fast pace while this, the whole country is under fire, while there still are troops, Israeli troops within the buffer is the line, within the yellow line. But also, you know, they've, they've crossed the yellow line. They've reached even. There's been presence of Israeli troops even beyond this, the yellow line. These reports in the past few days while civilians are being killed, while even Lebanese army are being killed during the ceasefire. So they're being put in this impossible position of being asked to do the impossible while they're still technically at war. So that's why the Lebanese state is asking first, we want a real ceasefire. We want to extend the ceasefire. We want first the Israeli troops to withdraw and we want first Israel to stop destroying those southern villages. I don't know if you've seen these images of Khayyam, of Bintage Bailey looks afoy was Gaza first. There's nothing left. It's already uninhabitable. And not only this buffer zone, but even much of the south now it's inhabitable. I've covered a lot of the villages that are north of this no man's land now. All of the main infrastructure, the key infrastructure have been destroyed. There's lots of strikes. There's now buffer zone of the buffer zone. So it is very hard for the Lebanese state and even for the way it is seen by the Lebanese population to sit on the table with Israel and speak about like peace talks and potential peace agreement while all of this is happening on the ground.
- [21:40]
Chris Chermak
Yossi Mekelberg of the MENA program at Chatham House and in Beirut, Nada Makaran Attala correspondent at the National. Thank you both very much for your comments today. Now, still to come in the program, exoplanets or planets outside of our solar system could hold the answer to the question, is there life beyond Earth? Tyra Schubart will be here to explain. This is the globalist
- [22:07]
UBS Narrator
craft is a matter of perspective, a unique outlook, an obsessive attention to detail. With UBS's Chief Investment Office Houseview, we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals. So you get big picture broken down into thought provoking insights. Delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected, locally active analysts. UBS banking is our craft.
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Chris Chermak
Well, let's continue now with today's newspapers and joining me in the studio is Zoe Grunewald, Westminster editor at the lead. Zoe, great to have you.
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Zoe Grunewald
Thank you for having me back.
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Chris Chermak
I appreciate you coming in. What must be a mad time. Somebody called the Westminster editor.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yes, it's not been a quiet week. Let's, let's be honest.
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Chris Chermak
So bring us the latest if you could. We have been talking about Keir Starmer the last couple of days on this show. It could be another critical day for Keir Starmer.
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Zoe Grunewald
It could be. So Wes Streeting, who is the Health Secretary, he's widely seen or tipped as one of the potential leadership candidates from the kind of Blair right wing of the Labour Party. Wes Threeting is said to be preparing to launch launch a leadership challenge against the Prime Minister today. This follows, of course, the horrendous set of local election results for the party last week and months and months of disquiet over Keir Starmer's position. West Streeting is an ally of Keir Starmer and that's why this has been particularly significant because he's in the Cabinet, he's very much seen as the same kind of part of the party as Keir Starmer, but he is, it's said that he has been building a leadership bid for quite some months now and this is the time he's ready to pounce. The reason Wes Streeting wants to pounce now is because the other real contender for the leadership is a man called Andy Burnham, who is the mayor of Greater Manchester. The problem, and he comes from the sort of soft left of the party, the problem with Andy Burnham is he doesn't have a seat, so he can't actually launch a leadership challenge. So West Streeting wants to get in there before Andy Burnham manages to find a way back to Westminster. But the problem is, does West Streeting have The numbers, you know, he's seen as a kind of continuity candidate from Keir Starmer. People don't want more of the same, they want something different. So there's all kinds of challenges facing both Burnham and Wes Streeting. The big question is, has Wes Streeting got enough support overnight to trigger a leadership challenge?
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Chris Chermak
Does he have enough support to trigger the leadership challenge? But also, just looking at the British public, Zoe, I'm curious, like, yes, on the one hand, maybe they want change. Starmer is unpopular. But also, to one of Keir Starmer's points, this constant change in leadership doesn't necessarily look good. And even the way you describe that, I mean, that really is a power play, isn't it? West reading, going now before the next guy can get the position that he wants.
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Zoe Grunewald
I think. I think even if you agree that Keir Starmer hasn't been a very good leader and potentially the Labour Party needs someone to lead them into the next election, you have to admit that this isn't the sign of a healthy democracy. We are turning over prime ministers at an extreme rate in this country. And Keir Starmer, yes, he's had terrible election results. He hasn't been a good leader. He's made many mistakes, but it's not, you know, they're not trying to depose him because he's genuinely a threat to the country or there's something going on. This is about MPs getting worried about their seats, and I think that doesn't sit well with the British public. So, you know, the party is in a real mess. And the question of whether another leadership challenge at a time of all this economic turmoil is going to make them more popular. Well, I think that's. That's significant.
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Chris Chermak
Well, let's look at something else. There will be plenty more on Keir Starmer over the next day or so, but we did want to look at a story from the Times on Iran and comments from the former CIA boss, Leon Panetta.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yes. So Leon Panetta has spoken to the Times. He's done an interview with the Times where he's talked about how he sees the US Iran conflict. He basically poured cold water on the White House's claims that this could end in six to eight weeks. He says there's no clear resolution in sight, and that's because the two core issues just don't have any agreement. And that is the future of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. He also says that Iran effectively has a gun to our head on global energy supplies. The US had no plan on when that happened. They knew that the Strait of Hormuz could have been under pressure, but they didn't make any plan. He's also been very critical of Trump's. Trump's chief negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, he called them two business guys from New York, essentially said the bottom line is both sides are waiting for each other to blink. There's no mutual trust there and this war could go on for months, even years if they can't find any agreement on these two points of contention.
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Chris Chermak
We are in a complete holding pattern at the moment when it comes to that. But Zoe, also in, I guess, a holding pattern. A cruise ship is quarantined. Another cruise ship is currently quarantined.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yeah. So it's worth saying straight off the bat that this sounds alarming. Officials have said this isn't linked to the hantavirus. This is a cruise ship that's been quarantined in France. There's about 1, 700 passengers on there. The whole cruise ship has been quarantined because of a suspected outbreak, quite aggressive outbreak of norovirus. So a 90 year old died, 50 people then began showing symptoms of this virus. So they decided to quarantine the whole boat for, you know, obviously for safety reasons. It's worth saying that the reason cruise ships always seem to be the kind of epicenter of these outbreaks is because people are in very close proximity to each other. They share the same air conditioning. And of course, you do get slightly older passengers as well on cruise ships, so it spreads more easily. But yes, it is another bit of bad, slightly worrying public health news after, of course, the hantavirus outbreak. But medical officials are saying they're not related.
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Chris Chermak
Well, finally, for a bit of levity, I do find this story very hilarious. Out of an Italian town town, the peacocks of all things have invaded.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yeah. So this is a resort called Punta Marina in Italy where local residents and business owners are kind of not sure what to do about this peacock invasion. So 100 peacocks have overrun this town. Punta Marina, it's a small coastal resort near Ravenna. They're mixed because on the one hand, it's mating season and the peacocks are very loud and they leave their waste everywhere and they can can be kind of annoying. But on the other hand, peacocks are very beautiful and they attract a lot of visitors. And there are local businesses that are really making hay out of this. So they make peacock fridge magnets and peacock biscuits. But there is this real kind of peacock biscuits. Peacock biscuits, yes. Not made of peacock, but yes. It's, you know, it's just a classic example of that kind of tension when you have an invasive species there where they can be very alluring to tourists, but at the same time it wreaks havoc on local ecosystems. And yeah, also they can be quite annoying for residents as well.
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Chris Chermak
Well, they can. But what is your take on this, Zoe? Because I remember studying up at the University of York, there were lots of geese everywhere, kind of the same thing, loud droppings everywhere. But they're not nearly as beautiful. So I might have accepted it if they were peacocks.
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Zoe Grunewald
Yes. I think the thing that from reading the article that is particularly annoying residents is that these peacocks scream all night because it's mating season. And you have to admit even as a student, you know, you can sleep through anything. But that would be quite annoying.
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Matt Schley
That's true.
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Chris Chermak
But here we have foxes, so there is also that.
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Zoe Grunewald
True.
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Chris Chermak
They scream through the night.
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Zoe Grunewald
They do.
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Chris Chermak
Zoe Grunewald, Westminster EDITOR at the Lead. Thank you very much for joining us. We'll let you get back to the crisis that is Westminster. You're with the Globalist on Monaco Radio. Now here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Cuba's energy minister has warned the country is completely out of fuel oil and diesel amid a blockade from the United States. States blackouts are in effect for as many as 22 hours of the 24 hour day as the country has only a limited and unstable supply of solar power. The United nations last week called the US blockade unlawful. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has called an emergency meeting after gunfire rang out in the country's Senate yesterday, where a politician wanted by the International Criminal Court has sought refuge. It is unclear who fired the shots or if Senator Ronald de la Rosa, an ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte, is still in the Senate building. Kevin Warsh has been confirmed by the U.S. senate to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell, whose term at the helm of the US Central bank will end tomorrow. Warsh was nominated by Donald Trump, who has called for more aggressive interest rate cuts from the central bank. And a tooth found in a cave in Siberia shows evidence that Neanderthals engaged in complex dental surgery tens of thousands of years ago. Researchers from the Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography in the Russian Academy of Sciences tested a stone tool similar to those found inside the cave and found it could be used to create the hole and precision marks found on the tooth to remove decay this is the Globalist. Stay tuned. It has just gone 9:31am in Bucharest, 7:31 here in London. Now Russia's repeated attempts to acquire Ukrainian territory have inevitably impacted some European nations more than others, notably those closest to Russia, which is why the Bucharest 9 block was created in 2015 in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea. That grouping of nations has been meeting once again in Romania this week week this time inviting ministers from Nordic nations to join them as well as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Well, I'm joined now by Alison Mutler, journalist in Bucharest and manager of the universal.net news site. Alison, tell us what's been on the agenda over the last day.
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Alison Mutler
Good morning. It was a one day full on summit. The main topic was Russia's aggression and security in the region. Zelensky, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president also flew in flew, he actually used an airplane, but not from Ukraine to the summit. He warned the participants about Russian aggression and a document was signed at the end of the meeting, the one day meeting about Russian aggression. So that seemed to be be the main topic as well as ways of boosting spending. There is the goal for now NATO members is 5% of GDP or national output. And so that was mentioned and ways of better cooperating between the regional allies. All the apart from Zelensky, all the leaders that were here were our members of NATO. As you said, Nordic Sweden came and Norway came and Finland came and also Iceland, which has a close relationship with NATO there. But that was the main issue is how to secure this region from possible Russian aggression.
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Chris Chermak
Alison, how united is this Bucharest 9 grouping at the moment? Because I mean even though as we talk about these are states that have a history with Russia that hasn't always kept all of them on message. I'm thinking of Czech Republic, Slovakia for example. Example.
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Alison Mutler
Absolutely. And you can also say that this very nice document they signed at the end is declarative and it doesn't actually mean anything without actual action. And what should be mentioned here is that who was absent from this meeting but the new Hungarian Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, he wasn't there. He didn't send a high level official, he sent his ambassador. And actually Hungary was the only nation not to sign this agreement. Not much has been made of it, but it is a point. But to be fair, at the same time there were some drone attacks in Hungary yesterday and he summoned the Hungarian ambassador and actually told Vladimir Putin when are you going to stop this bloody war? So kind of mixed messaging, very strong statement that you don't normally get from leaders in the region who try and be a bit more sort of diplomatic, if you like. But again, he didn't sign, Hungary did not sign sign this statement saying that Russia was a security threat to the region. So, yes, you're right, not everybody's on the same page. And again, as I said earlier, it's one thing to sign a statement because everybody else does, and it's another thing to actually do something about it when there are breaches of national territory by Russian drones, et cetera.
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Chris Chermak
Yeah, very interesting that Hungary is not a part of it. But is there, when you look at this statement, as you say, it is quite a strong statement. At the same time, is there a sense on the opposite end, if you will, among this group that Ukraine is actually gaining some of the upper hand in this war? I mean, what will this group have made, for example, of Vladimir Putin's suggestions that the war is coming to an end? He is under pressure with his parade over the weekend.
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Alison Mutler
Absolutely. I mean, all the reports we're getting in, obviously from our own observations, because we do live on the front line, Romania has like a 400 odd a mile border with Ukraine. We've been watching this from day number one. It's very clear that Russia is losing ground. And particularly internally, that is more interesting, I think, to watch. But what it seems to me, first of all, it is no longer the number one sort of conflict. What's happening in the Middle east, that conflict is the number one. So it's no longer the top of the news headlines. And what we're seeing, although there aren't necessarily direct reports, is a lack of morale among the Russian troops. The Ukrainians from day number one have been valiant fighting for their homeland, for their country. But Russia, what have they got to gain from this, you know, taking a bit of territory that they're not doing very well over? I think that is a major problem with Russia is the lack of progress and the fact that the lack of progress is obvious for the world to see. And I really think their troops really have no appetite to fight.
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Chris Chermak
Now, Alison, while we have you, you've been telling us a lot over the last couple of weeks about Romanian politics. And so I am cur curious how challenging it is for Romania to be hosting this when its own government coalition has collapsed.
- [36:38]
Alison Mutler
Good point, exactly that. I was just in fact translating one of my colleagues editorials today. He was saying just that it's one thing to sign these fine declarations look very sort of, you know, optimal on paper, but when you have your own crisis, I mean, we don't have a government. We have an interim government. The government was are dismissed in a no confidence vote. We don't really know what's happening. We've been told we will have a pro Western government. I suppose that means no nationalist in a reasonable time. And there's all kinds of problems with, you know, what reforms Romania takes because it needs to access EU funds. So, you know, you can't have great foreign policy. And on the other hand, you know, domestically, your country is pretty brittle because of political problems and political uncertainty, which is denting, which is, you know, the markets don't like it, the currency has declined, borrowing costs may increase. So, you know, as I said, these statements, while it's good that there is, you know, something formal and public out there, you know, these countries, including Romania, do have big internal political and social problems.
- [37:45]
Chris Chermak
Alison Mutler, journalist in Bucharest. Thank you once again for joining us. You're with Monica Rain Radio. Well, it is 1538 in Tokyo, 838 in Zurich. And I'm joined now from our Tokyo studio by Matt Schley, Tokyo based reporter and critic for publications including the Japan Times and Screen International. Matt, good afternoon to Tokyo.
- [38:37]
Matt Schley
Good morning. Thanks for having me on.
- [38:39]
Chris Chermak
Very, very welcome. Good to have you. We're gonna start with a couple of things from the Cannes Film Festival. We talked about this yesterday in terms of the opening day, but Japanese films nominated.
- [38:51]
Matt Schley
Japanese films nominated. There are three films in competition at the festival this year from Japan. That's the first time. There's been three since 2001. So big deal for Japan. We can go through the titles real quick if you'd like.
- [39:06]
Chris Chermak
Let's go for it.
- [39:07]
Matt Schley
Okay, so we've got one from the director Ryusuke Hamaguchi, best known for his film Drive My Car, which won the Academy Award a few years ago ago. This film is called all of a Sudden and it's Hamagouchi's first film shot outside Japan. It was shot in France. It stars Virginia Elfia, forgive my pronunciation. She's known for the film Benedetta, the Paul Verhoeven film. And it's got Tao Okamoto, who was in the Wolverine. It's a kind of a bonding film between these two characters. So looking forward to that. We've also got a film by Korea Hirokazu, who's probably best known for the film Shoplifters. Now that film won at Cannes a few years ago, so a big name there. I think he's been in competition something like eight times the festival. So a very long, you know, a very long relationship with Cannes. His new film is called Sheep in the Box, which is, if you imagine Steven Spielberg's AI it's kind of issues about a young adopted AI robot passing for a young human.
- [40:20]
Chris Chermak
I love the title Sheep in the Box.
- [40:22]
Matt Schley
Sheep in the Box. Indeed.
- [40:23]
Yossi Mekelberg
Indeed.
- [40:25]
Matt Schley
So that film will premiere in a few days. The one film that has premiered so far is called Nagi Notes. This is from a director called Koji Fukada, who's maybe not quite as famous as those previous few directors, but his film Harmonium won the Uncertain Regard Jury prize about a decade ago at Cannes. Again, this is a film about two women in a quiet part of Japan called Nagi, hence the title Nagi Notes. This premiered yesterday, I believe, and it's got kind of mixed reviews. Cannes can be a tough place with the critics, but again, three films, so that's a big deal for Japan. And some films in different sections as well.
- [41:04]
Chris Chermak
Well, absolutely. And yes, Cannes can be a tough place for critics, but one of the reasons I don't know if this is related or not, three Japanese films nominated, but also Japan itself is the country of honor this year.
- [41:18]
Matt Schley
That's right. As you say, we're not privy to whether this is a coincidence or related, but Japan is the country of honor at the Mareche, which is the market attached to to can. So there's a lot of kind of Japan related things going on. Japan trying to get itself out there in an international way.
- [41:41]
Chris Chermak
And how are they doing with that? What's your sense of kind of how Japan has taken over? Khan?
- [41:47]
Matt Schley
Well, yeah, it's still early days, but they've got. The opening party was held by Japan. So I'm sure there's a lot of kind of sake flowing and things like that. The, the idea is basically that the Japanese government wants to really push their cultural exports. That includes movies, but also anime and manga and games. And they have a goal to get those export numbers up to 20 trillion yen by the year 2033. For context, it's at about 5 trillion yen right now. So it's a very ambitious goal. But that's a part of Japan kind of stretching its wings, as it were, and trying to get itself out there more internationally and hopefully get some co productions going on and stuff that'll appeal outside the country.
- [42:37]
Chris Chermak
Well, Matt, just before we let you go, you did mention anime there. And I understand that the operator of a website that has been offering spoilers for plots and scenes, including from anime, has been found guilty of violating copyright law.
- [42:52]
Matt Schley
Yeah, this is the interesting story non Cannes story in the news recently. Yeah, this is a site that had very, very detailed summaries of anime and other movies to the extent that it was sued by these film companies and lost. So it was a kind of a. How much of this a summary? How much is it a rip off?
- [43:17]
Chris Chermak
And.
- [43:18]
Matt Schley
And the court sided with the film companies.
- [43:22]
Chris Chermak
What does that mean for you as a critic, Matt? Do you have to be more careful about how you write and how many spoilers you include?
- [43:29]
Matt Schley
I always try not to spoil, but I think I'm in the clear. I've got a word count that probably makes me safe.
- [43:36]
Chris Chermak
Matchly film critic from Tokyo. Thank you very much for joining us today at our studio there. This is the Globelist on Monocle Radio. Radio,
- [43:48]
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- [44:22]
Chris Chermak
You're back with the globalist. Now, the age old question of whether there is life beyond Earth. Well, when you think about it, it's really just a numbers game. The universe is believed to be infinite. So it stands to reason that the more planets we can identify, the greater the chances that we'll find one which has just the right conditions for life to form. Which is why a new satellite that has basically doubled the number of planets we can identify beyond our own solar system has scientists very excited. Well, I'm joined now by Tyra Shubert, fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society and ambassador for the Science Museum. Tira, great to have you right here in the studio. Did I explain all of that correctly?
- [45:01]
Tyra Schubart
You did. Good morning, Chris. You did? Up to now we've only known about five in a exoplanets. That means that they're planets that are outside of our solar system. But tess, which means transiting exoplanet satellite survey has doubled that to 11,000. So there's a lot more possibilities. But as you said, it's got to be habitable planets and they have got to be rocky ones like Earth, not gas giants like Jupiter.
- [45:30]
Chris Chermak
There is so much that goes into that. So tell us what makes it habitable. This is partly about what I understand is called the Goldilocks.
- [45:38]
Tyra Schubart
The Goldilocks zone is just like the porridge, not too hot and not too cold. That means that it will Have a liquid water, it'll be the right temperature to hold that because we believe that life as we know it will be dependent on liquid water. But because there's 100 billion to 400 billion stars just in our galaxy and there could be a billion galaxies and each one them of of them has at least one planet orbiting it. Well, there's a lot of possibilities out there.
- [46:11]
Chris Chermak
There's a lot of possibilities. And tell us then a little more about this satellite or this probe. TESS transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. I mean, how far does this thing go in terms of what exactly it identifies? Because identifying an exoplanet is one thing. Really understanding them is quite another.
- [46:29]
Tyra Schubart
Absolutely. Well, it's a successor to an earlier satellite called Kepler, which was named after 17th century German astronomer. And Tess divides the sky up into the sky, the universe into sectors, and then examines them with four different telescopes. And rather like when you flick your finger past a candle and it dims the light, it identifies stars and the orbiting planets by the dimming of the light and it can tell how big the planets are. And then doing a little bit of further investigation, it will tell us whether or not the signature, the biological signature, would be ones that were suitable for life. So it's given us 11,000 more to look at. And now astronomers around the world with different kinds of telescopes will investigate those. But Chris, I'm sorry to say, the closest one is. Would take you more than 100,000 years to fly to in a spacecraft.
- [47:33]
Chris Chermak
That is a long time. So then tell us more about these next steps that all the other astronomers will be getting into right now. What exactly happens now that we have 11,000 more planets to look at?
- [47:45]
Tyra Schubart
Well, they're going to discover whether or not they are the rocky type like Earth, or the gas giants or ones that, that are giant. They could be Earth like, but huge, which would mean their gravity would be extremely, extremely strong. So that will take a lot of investigation and a lot of telescope time from all the big telescopes around the world. But then we have to wonder, well, even if they're out there, how do we learn more about them? Well, until we can do like Star wars and the millennial Falcon and fly at the speed of light or go into suspended animation like Ripley and Alien, we're not going to be able to see them ourselves.
- [48:28]
Chris Chermak
Okay, we won't be able to see them ourselves. But do give me, come on. A little more tear about whether, you know, the next step is, of course, intelligent life as well as life in general. As I said, at the outset, it stands to reason there's enough planets out there, but how would we even go about identifying that?
- [48:45]
Tyra Schubart
Well, statistically, there will be life out there. And will the life forms be like Earth? We don't know. So, yes, statistically, that is the case. And whether or not we can determine that in the next few years depends on the increasing sophistication of the instruments that we're using. I mean, we didn't even think about exoplanets until the early 1990s. So as our methods of detecting telescopes and things like the James Webb Telescope, which is way out there in space, as we get more and more sophisticated instruments, we'll be able to understand the biological signature more well.
- [49:24]
Chris Chermak
And maybe to that point, Tyra, I'm just curious, with a finding like this, 11,000 more planets, do you expect, do you hope that this might lead to more funding for NASA, more funding for science, given that there is so much and you need all these expensive bits of equipment to do it?
- [49:42]
Tyra Schubart
Yes, NASA's certainly hoping for that. Although in the last two budgets that the Trump administration has given to NASA, they've tried to cut the science funding by 40%. But what's happened? And Congress has overruled that last year. Esa, European Space Agency has put a lot more money into science because some of these detecting methods are done jointly with the European Space Agency. And don't forget, you have the big new space powers coming up, like India. And so there's a lot of more players out there in the field, so there's a lot more scientists and a lot more clever minds working on this question.
- [50:24]
Chris Chermak
And, Tyra, just finally, we started with tess. This satellite, what does it do now? I mean, does it sort of go back to sleep, is its job done, or can find another 11,000 planets?
- [50:34]
Tyra Schubart
TESS was only launched in 2018, so it's in its prime and it will keep. It's only looked at 96 sectors of the sky and there's hundreds of it, so it will continue on its merry way. And so maybe, you know, maybe I can come back in and say, hurrah, we found something. Intelligent life, more intelligent life in the universe. Wouldn't that be a welcome thought?
- [50:56]
Chris Chermak
It would come back when we found another 20,000 planets or so to talk about. Kyra Shubert, fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society and ambassador for the Science Museum, thank you very much for joining us right here in the studio. You're listening to the Globalist on Monocle Radio Radio. And finally, on today's show, we head to Vienna, where Eurovision Song contest fever is taking over the city. One semi final is already in the books and another takes place tonight. Monocle's Eurovision correspondent Fernando Augusto Pacheco has arrived on site in the Austrian capital, standing by to tell us more servos for now.
- [52:05]
Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Servus. Chris, I'm so happy to be here. And you know what? I think, just because it's your vision, because last night I had a, you know, quite a, you know, a big delay on my flight for three hours. But you know what? I'm still very excited, you know, building the anticipation thing. Yes. But as soon as I arrived in my hotel, there was a little manor, you know, wafer waiting for me. As you know, Chris, coming from Austria, we all love a little bit of wafers from Mana here. So I'm quite excited for the day. I have a very big day ahead of me today.
- [52:39]
Chris Chermak
Well, tell us more about what you're expecting. Mana schnitten. I mean, that's a very traditional Viennese thing, but the city is coming to life with lots of Eurovision branding as well. What are you hoping to do today?
- [52:49]
Fernando Augusto Pacheco
I was already happy on my taxi journey to the hotel. I was already seeing a lot of posters you could film, feel that the city is hosting an event, which, I have to be honest, is surprising, Chris, because, you know, I think I mentioned this to you. In the last few years, Eurovision has been hosted in fairly kind of mid to small cities and I think Vienna, you know, is a big European capital. So it's quite nice that finally Eurovision's back to a big city. And of course, today is the day of the. The second semi final. We have some, you know, amazing contestants. It's going to be a strong one. I would tell people to look out for Denmark, Australia and Romania. I think they are the biggest contenders tonight. And I hope the second semi final is as good as the first one, because the first one made me cry, Chris. You know, the first five minutes they had this kind of very cute montage, you know, of. Of. Of a gay couple, actually, that enjoys to watch Eurovision together. But then, you know, it became. Becomes quite emotional because throughout the years, one of the partners died, but, you know, the other partner, you know, kept watching Eurovision. Gosh, you know, Eurovision makes me do those things.
- [53:58]
Chris Chermak
Oh, Fernando. Fernando. Well, we'll see what this semi final brings. But I did want to bring you back to that first semi final, admittedly, because, yes, it was emotional, but it was, of course, also controversial with Israel getting through that semifinal and going on to the final on Saturday. Have you seen anything around that already. Are you, what are you expecting from that controversy when you go today?
- [54:24]
Fernando Augusto Pacheco
It is controversial. It's been controversial to be honest, in the last years, but I think more so this year. And one interesting thing, Chris, you know, usually when you're in, in the audience and the Israeli contestant performs, there's quite a lot of booing. And I know sometimes when you watch on TV they manage to come kind of remove that sound. But to be honest, I was watching on TV the, for the SEM first semi final, I could actually hear the booing and I was just reading now that four people had to be removed from the stadium because of the, of the heavy booing. So and of course now Israel will be there, the big final. So you know, there will be some tension in the air. And as you know, last year there was a big controversy because, you know, some countries complain, complained that, you know, the Israeli government was kind of, you know, doing this kind of crazy campaign so people can vote 20 times for their act. So now they had to change a little bit. You know, the way it votes now you can only vote 10 times. You know, the jury has a kind of a stronger role in the voting in the semi finals. Before it was only the public that used to vote for the semi finals. Now the jury has 50% of the vote. So the EBU kind of acted on that. But the controversy remains.
- [55:39]
Chris Chermak
The controversy does remain. But nonetheless, I mean, when it comes to the voting or for other reasons, I mean, just tell us who you expect might be winning on Saturday. Give us some predictions. Your early favorites fae.
- [55:53]
Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Well, it's a three way competition. I would say Finland is the runaway favorites and I can't understand that because the song is brilliant. You know, it's a combination of classical music and pop, but not just a crossover. I think the performance is quite strong. You know, there are a lot of flames on stage and of course the translation for the song is Flamethrower. So thankfully there are some, some flames. I would be very disappointed if there isn't. We also have Grease with the song Fertile, which is, you know, it's a song of its time. I can see young people enjoying it. It's very, very hyper pop production and it's interesting. That's what I'm saying. Eurovision is deeper than people think. It's a song about over consumption in our society and Denmark is a fan favorite. He dresses very well. He's kind of a lover of music theater, which kind of bodes well for Eurovision performance as well.
- [56:50]
Chris Chermak
Well, we'll look forward to all of those, Fernando, and I know you've interviewed a few of those artists too. But to bring you back to Vienna, because I do want to ask you more about the. That it's the second time that you're in the city for the competition. The last time we were both there. Fernando, given that my family, my parents, are in Vienna as well. What are you expecting from this city? I know you have plans, Eurovision and beyond.
- [57:14]
Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Absolutely. You know, I booked already some great restaurants, I got some recommendations from some of our lovely Austria contacts, and I'll share something a little intimate with you, Chris, you know, as you know, I've been covering your video Eurovision. This is my 11th Eurovision from Monaco, but the one in Vienna in 2015 was the one. I was mildly disappointed because it was a year where, you know, I had some issues with my press creditation. I still came to the event, but I came on a Saturday, so I didn't have much time to visit the city. So this time I came prepared. I have my press accreditation, so, you know, Vienna, you know, you should wait for me because, you know, the weather is not good. But you know what? I don't care. Apparently it's going to rain the next days. But Vienna is known for its grand cafes. We don't need to necessarily be outside all the time. I want to have, you know, some lovely, you know, desserts that I know you have here, lovely schnitzel and a glass of wine.
- [58:07]
Chris Chermak
Absolutely. And Fernando, when it does come to Saturday, I understand there is a Eurovision branded tram you can take from the city to the Stadthalle.
- [58:16]
Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Oh, yes, and I'll definitely be taking that one to the stadium, even if it's not convenient. I don't care. I want a picture of me in that beautiful tram. So it's good that the city is heavily involved, as they should, because, you know, over 95,000 tickets have been sold to all Eurovision events here in the city. I mean, I think cities should treat Eurovision as the big deal it is.
- [58:40]
Chris Chermak
Monocle's Eurovision correspondent in Vienna, Fernando Augusto Pacheco. Thank you very much for joining us. More from you, I'm sure, in the next couple of days. That's all, though, for today's program. Program thanks to our producers, Angelica Jobson, Anita Riota, Hassan Anderson, our man Ryuma Takahashi, our researcher Josefina Gomez, and our studio manager, Steph Chungu, with editing assistance by Hunter Wang. After the headlines. More music on the way. And the briefing is live at midday. In London, the Globalist returns at the same time tomorrow. I'm Chris Chermack. Thanks for listening.
- [59:25]
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