← The Glossy Podcast
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- [00:05]
Danny Parisi
Hello, and welcome back to the Glossy Week in Review podcast. I'm your host, senior fashion reporter Danny Parisi. And on this year ahead kind of 2025 look ahead podcast episode, I am here with our editor in chief, Jill Manoff, and our managing editor, Tatiana Pyle. Hello, guys.
- [00:20]
Tatiana Pyle
Hello.
- [00:21]
Jill Manoff
Hi.
- [00:22]
Danny Parisi
Thank you both for being here. We were just saying I don't think we've ever had the three of us all on one podcast together at the same time, so who knows what's. What's going to happen? But as I mentioned, this is our 2025 kind of look Ahead podcast. We're going to be talking about some of the big stories, a little bit of, like, kind of things we've been covering, but more looking forward at things that we think will be big topics of glossy coverage in 2025. We'll keep it to, like, four topics. And then we're also going to look back at some of our bold predictions from last year's Year Ahead podcast and see if we were cor or not. I'm almost always wrong, so maybe that's. That says something about my credibility. But this year, I think I got something right. And then we will offer some bold predictions for next year as well. So once again, thank you, Jill and Tatiana, for coming on.
- [01:14]
Jill Manoff
It'll be fun.
- [01:15]
Danny Parisi
How are you feeling about 2025 in general from a glossy perspective, not a personal perspective?
- [01:22]
Jill Manoff
I feel like I'm girding my loins. I feel like I'm, like, waiting for some. It's not going to be like new Year, new us, like, everything's going to be hunky dory. I just think, you know, there are a lot of question marks around what will happen with the new administration and also what the future will hold in terms of inflation and everyone pinching their pennies and a lot of the things we're going to discuss today. What about you, Tatiana?
- [01:49]
Tatiana Pyle
Yeah, I feel the exact same way. In terms of glossy, I think we'll be totally okay, but I think we'll 100% have some very interesting stories to cover next year for sure.
- [01:59]
Danny Parisi
And, Jill, you mentioned kind of our. Our first big topic for 2025, and I'm something. I'm certain we're gonna write a lot about the Trump administration. He's being inaugurated in January. I can already tell that it's gonna be very chaotic. And in particular, one thing I think.
- [02:14]
Jill Manoff
We'Re gonna see is you're very positive.
- [02:16]
Danny Parisi
Yeah. I think one thing in particular I think we're gonna see is, like, the. The last Four years we've talked a little bit about Lina Khan as the head of the militant, about shutting down mergers and other sorts of like corporate, you know, big corporate decision making. I think the Trump administration has signaled the complete opposite. It feels like kind of open season for big corporations. You can merge or acquire whatever you want and we pledge we are not going to stop you. So I, that's like one kind of thing that I am certainly going to be keeping an eye on in 2025 is just the way that the business world kind of reacts to a clearly much free, friendlier administration to their interests. So I feel like even just from the, the Cabinet picks that we've been seeing, I think there's a lot to glean about what the, the kind of like new administration is going to look like. So I'm anticipating a lot of stories on glossy throughout the year about different ways that changes in kind of the personnel of the government at the very least will affect our industries and the companies that we cover. But also, I imagine a lot of stuff is going to be, I'm imagining that I'm going to change my plan many times throughout the year of like, oh my God, they just announced some insane new thing. I have to like, write about this today. So I don't know. That's kind of my, my feeling. What do you think, Jill? Do you want to start?
- [03:34]
Jill Manoff
Sure. That's interesting where, where you're going with the, with the, what am I saying acquisitions in the deals in terms of looser regulations and in terms of my notes and what I was thinking about looser regulations in various various ways. So we think we know RFK Jr still needs to win over the Senate. Not yet. Is not yet like officially on board.
- [03:57]
Danny Parisi
Confirmed.
- [03:57]
Jill Manoff
Yeah. But expected to see as a result of his appointment, looser regulations on regulations around supplements and also in terms of, you know, Trump began the whole TikTok ban conversation when he was in office. And so on the note of social media, there's a lot of talk about like Elon Musk and what he's done with X and really like championing free speech. But that has, you know, equated to more hate speech, less regulation of content. So kind of some loosey goosey things. And it'll be interesting to see how that plays out, obviously. And tariffs we have to talk about.
- [04:35]
Danny Parisi
But yeah, yeah, I will get to that in a second. Tatiana, anything that stood out to you about this kind of topic?
- [04:43]
Tatiana Pyle
I think the biggest thing for me, top of mind, especially because I'm working on A story about TikTok right now is the state of social media. What's going to happen? We've kind of been seeing some of the side effects from Trump or the transitioning of Trump's administration right now with people leaving Twitter or X. No one's on X anymore. There's a new social platform called Blue sky that I have yet to download, but it's becoming a new hot topic. And then obviously, with Trump being inaugurated on the 19th or the 20th and the ban happening on the 19th, what will actually happen? Is the ban going to happen? Is it going to be only a permanent ban? And then also all these huge luxury brands that are finally. That we're really slowly getting on TikTok shop. What does that mean now for the state of the shop where we saw such a huge success during Black Friday Cyber Monday? There were, I think, over 30,000 live streams on Black Friday alone. So, you know, I think it's an interesting time for brands where they were finally beginning to see an opportunity there, and now they're like, what's going to happen next?
- [05:44]
Danny Parisi
Yeah, I definitely think that the TikTok ban is an interesting element. And we were just talking, me and Lexi were talking about this last week where Trump kind of floated the idea originally in his first administration, and then now he's kind of like, I'm going to rescue American companies from this or whatever. And it's like, what even mechanism does he have? It happens before he's even inaugurated. So I don't even know. But also, like, who knows? I mean, he does stuff all the time that you're, like, not supposed to or allowed to do and somehow gets away with it. So we'll see. And then, Jill, you mentioned the tariff thing. I mean, this is another big element that I'm thinking about is the ways that US Companies and, like, a lot of the companies that we cover internationally are going to be increasingly caught between, like, the US And China. Trump is, like, extremely aggressive on. On China and, like, the economic rivalry with China. And I feel like we're definitely going to see a lot more brands kind of, like, very carefully navigating both economic and kind of, like, cultural issues between these two kind of superpowers. I have a feeling they're going to be moderating their. Their tone very carefully, depending on which audience they're talking to. There's issues like tariffs and, you know, moving manufacturing around. I just think the. The tension between the US And China, which will be exacerbated, I think, by Trump, is definitely going to be something that a Lot of our companies are thinking about.
- [07:07]
Jill Manoff
Yeah. And Biden already started the ball rolling on this de minimis exception or. Yes. Where different imports could come in that are under $800 to avoid. Avoid being reviewed and taxed and all of this. I'm probably describing it inaccurately, but it'll be interesting. There's a stat out there that 98% of apparel that's purchased in the U.S. consumed is imported. 98%. I have got an interesting perspective maybe because like my, my father owned a tool and dye shop in the US and and struggled. Struggle city because, you know, things customers started going to international competitors for cheaper, lesser quality shit. And it was a big thing for my family. So I can see, I think that things are going to get more expensive as I mean things are already ramping up and expensive all year, but expensive due to the tariffs and as things like people can't move that fast, companies in terms of like setting up domestic production and the scale is not there. So if they are moving to do so, like it'll still be expensive because it's expensive to produce in the US So we're going to see higher costs for sure.
- [08:21]
Danny Parisi
Yeah. And I think that's a good segue into our second topic, which is I originally wrote this as luxury bounce back. But the more I read about it, I was like, maybe not. I think a big, A big topic that we've written about and talked about over 2024 and it kind of started at the end of 2023 was luxury. The luxury industry has had this like unprecedented amount of prosperity the last couple of years. And then starting at the end of 2023 and all through 2024, I think they really struggled. There were some outliers. We talked about Chanel and Hermes and other brands that like still did really well. But in general, even the, the. Some of the biggest and most kind of traditionally successful companies carrying an lvmh Gucci, like some of these brands that are like household names really kind of struggled. There was a report from Bain that I think overall the luxury market in general kind of globally shrank by like 1%, which has not happened in, I don't know, decades and decades. So I had originally written this as like maybe 2025 is the year of like luxury bouncing back. But I don't know. I think things like what you were just saying, Jill, about things getting more expensive, like that's part of the reason I think people are gravitating toward sheen and like super cheap stuff is because everything is so expensive and I think that's a little bit maybe eating into some of the luxury profits. I don't know. I, I will be very curious to see in 2025 if any of those big, especially at the conglomerates like lv, Matrix, Herring are able to claw back some of the growth that they have lost over the last year.
- [09:52]
Jill Manoff
For sure, I'll jump in and then I'll toss it to you, Tatiana. But I think that in the US in particular, aspirational shoppers, like they lost aspirational shoppers because everybody's struggling to make ends meet and spending, I don't know, $10 on a carton of milk. That's an exaggeration. But like everything's gotten more expensive. So that's definitely one thing. I think we'll see a stabilization like slowed growth. Slowed growth, but that's after the speed period of crazy high growth, fast growth, rapid growth. So I think we'll see stabilization. I don't think like China is not expected to see any return to growth until late 2025. Japan is supposed to stay this kind of huge market. The boom's expected to stick. And same with India. It's become expected to become a bigger player with, with ultra high net worth folks and also a rising aspirational shopper. So there's going to be some movement. Yeah, I don't think it's going to be like the heyday of like early pandemic times, but yeah, stabilization is how I see it.
- [10:58]
Tatiana Pyle
I agree with that. I was doing some reading prior to our conversation and I found it really interesting. And I also feel like I've been kind of seeing this shift in marketing terms about how a lot of luxury brands are really shifting their focus to the Asian market. I think the US consumers are probably, we're going to get a little bit of, for lack of a better word, it's kind of like the crumbs in terms of new stores opening more exaggerated or expansive collections. I think a lot of it is going to be focused on building and continuing to build the Asian market. I thought it was really fascinating when Montclair did their earnings. They talked about how they really tapped into some of those more cultural moments that were happening in Japan and China. And that's where they were, that was where they were able to see their biggest opportunities for growth. And kind of to the point you were talking about earlier, Danny, I think especially as a US consumer myself, and as a person who's like always on TikTok, you've just been seeing a shift in how people are Shopping. A lot of people are over consuming. That's always happened, but even more so than before. And for most of us we cannot over consume on luxury items. Like I can't buy a thousand dollar purse, but I can certainly buy a $20 purse on shein and multiple of them and do hauls on TikTok. So with as quickly as the trend cycle turns in fashion especially, I think a lot of people are wanting to keep up and be super trendy. And it's really hard to do when luxury is only becoming a space where it feels like you're getting boxed out.
- [12:25]
Jill Manoff
Of it and there's consumer shifts in terms of like what people value. So we're hearing more about still people valuing experiences over assets. And I think one way to combat that for these luxury brands, price increases. Price increases, but people are priced out. And yeah, I think that we're seeing, we're just seeing this, this week I was mentioning to Danny about the, the fact that Vera Wang just sold and that Capri is shopping around Versace and Jimmy Choo and all this movement this week. But it's like all of the, it's gonna have long term impacts this kind of shitty year in luxury. Yeah, I think we're gonna see it early next year for sure.
- [13:04]
Tatiana Pyle
Totally. And another point too that I was thinking about. I'm wondering if like where we're in this limbo in luxury, if that'll give opportunities for like Coach, which has been seeing such a huge surge in America to come and come in with like the talks of tariffs. What's going to happen with pricing? I think it's going to be a really interesting opportunity for American houses to kind of rise in this moment too.
- [13:26]
Jill Manoff
Yes, Affordable luxury. Good point.
- [13:29]
Danny Parisi
Yeah, that's, that's a good point. I think it's like it kind of is reductive to say, but it's like it kind of could go one of two ways. It's like I feel like those affordable luxury brands might really benefit from this because it's like I don't want garbage like Shein, but I also like can't afford, you know, something above that. And so people go to the middle. I could maybe also see it being the opposite problem where it's like if you can't get the best thing, you might as well get the cheapest thing. And then that might be. But I'm sure it'll be, you know, some of those brands in the middle will succeed and some won't.
- [14:01]
Jill Manoff
I think we always talk about those brands getting squeezed and I was going to talk about that for my bold call, looking at the contemporary temporary market in that space because we saw Road just closed, the clothing brand and Ted Baker going bankrupt and all that, all those problems in that sector. But it seems there are problems all around.
- [14:19]
Danny Parisi
Yeah, but then there are some brands that, that are occupying that middle space that I feel like are doing well. So it's. I don't know. I could see. I think some will definitely benefit and then others will be sort of squeezed out. One more topic on luxury, something we've talked about a bunch is the insane amount of creative directors that have left their brands over the last year. I pulled this paragraph from a story I wrote a couple months ago, but we had Hedy Salman leaving Celine. We have a new CEO of Gucci. And then we have people out at Burberry Mulberry, Alberta Ferretti, Chanel Mazzoni, Dries Van Noten, Balman Selfridges and Victoria Beckham all lost or replaced creative directors or CEOs this year. And then after I wrote that story, we just talked about, or I just wrote about Matthew Blasey leaving Bottega to go to Chanel. Bottega now has a new creative director too. It's been crazy, the amount of, like, reshuffling of the creative leadership at luxury brands. Maybe as a response to some of the kind of crises we've been talking about, they're looking for new, new blood and new ideas to kind of counteract the slowdown. I'm guessing that, that this is not over in 2025, we will see more people moving around. Let's move on and talk about this is something, you know, I have written about this a ton and it's kind of my little thing. But resale and rental, I feel like is still growing. I feel like it's still becoming a bigger part of the industry every single year. Just before Thanksgiving, I spoke to David Hayne, who is the head of Nuuly at Urban. That's their rental service. And their growth was insane. This year. Their sales were up 48% and their active users are up 51%. In the last quarter, like, there's been a huge amount of growth in rental and particularly rental that's not in the luxury space. Like we, you know, there's obviously rent the Runway and stuff for like designer clothes, but Nuuly does not specialize in like super expensive clothing. It's just like regular stuff. And it's, you know, the, the appeal that what David at Nuuly told me and what what analysts have told me is just that it kind of gives you that variety and speed that we were talking about with like Shein or Fast Fashion, except you don't have to actually own the, the cheap stuff and then throw it away later. So like, I think there's a really strong kind of niche there for rental and resale. I think kind of fills the same kind of gap that we were talking about with luxury where you can't always afford and increasingly fewer people can afford new stuff from big luxury brands. And so resale that offers that same stuff at, you know, a more accessible price point is just going to, you know, I think continue to fill that, that gap a little bit. So that's my take. I have other thoughts on it, but I'll stop there.
- [17:01]
Tatiana Pyle
I think it's been interesting, I think it's really been interesting to see the brands that are going into their own individual resale opportunities. I think it's a really smart way to really figure out and restrategize how to, how to acquire new consumers. Because I think what we've been talking about, it's like in this space where there's a lot of economic uncertainty, especially around like tariffs and what does that mean for distribution and merchandising. I think it's really, it's smart to see brands that are going into their own versions of resale. I know when we did glossy 50, I was talking to. And this is a whole new world I didn't even think about. But like Baze, they've launched their own resale. So they're doing, you know, with suitcases. I'm like, everyone's getting into resale. There's such a huge market for it. Huge opportunity for brands to figure out how to be profitable that way. In the space where profitability is not the, the, the biggest and easiest thing to achieve right now.
- [17:57]
Jill Manoff
Yes. And, and it speaks to again, pinching pennies and along with the move to off price and the move to buy now, pay later services and dupes and all these things, it's just, it's huge. Like, I, I think if you talk, if we were talking resale and rental, like we have to talk about resale on a totally different level. It's like by 2025, expected to account for 10% of the global apparel market with growth ongoing from there in the double digits for like the next several years. So huge. And in that kind of, again, if everybody did that this year to pinch pennies like that kind of people see the, the benefits like more self opportunities for Self expression, you're not buying what everybody else has. And, and that kind of habit sticks. And then on the rental like it definitely, like we've seen the potential. Wow. Like it blows my mind all the time how Nuuly has far surpassed Rent the Runway when Rent the Runway has been around since 2009, Nuuly since 2019. Danny, you referenced this, that like rent the Runway 130,000 subscribers, newly over double at 300,000. But the small number around Rent the Runway, like it's really surprising and newly seeing 97 million in revenue versus rent the Runway this is for the third quarter, versus rent the runways, 76 million, pretty substantially below that. But yeah, there just aren't enough players in the market really it's these two guys and if you tally them up, we've got 430,000 people who are renting right now. But yeah, the fact that this young consumer newly is definitely, I think you mentioned a younger audience, a little more casual than Rent what Rent the Runway is doing. And there are all these stats that are going around just in the same way that the older consumer, the, I don't know, Gen X and above is not taking to resale quite like younger generations, they're likely not taking to this. So like how do we, I don't know, expand this market? Anyway, a lot of questions here, but opportunity and we know how complicated of a, of a business this is with the dry cleaning and the logistics of it all.
- [20:04]
Danny Parisi
Yeah, and you mentioned Rent the Runway but like even Rent the Runway is a little bit making a comeback. I mean if you look at some of the headlines recently, their stock is like triple what it was, you know, a little while ago. So they're making a comeback as well. The other thing is very new and, and very small scale. But I've watched over the last year the rise of this like really kind of small scale, like peer to peer rental service. There's Pickle. I was just reading about another one called Hur H U R R. I think that is working with some, some famous people and it's literally one person's closet and you can go and pick stuff out. And I think we were talking the other day with the team about how when I interviewed Pickle, I was like, so how do you get the clothes? And they were like, oh, people come to your house and get it there. That's one way they can do it. And they're only in New York and I think they're testing out a couple other cities like LA and Miami I think were the other two. I don't know how you possibly scale something like that because I think that's sounds even more logistically complicated than something like Rent the Runway or Nuuly. But there's. I think there's some interest there for sure, just by the the number of kind of versions of that business model that are popping up recently. All Focus in New York pretty much for now, but that's something interesting to watch. I don't know if they can get big just because it sounds so complicated, but who knows.
- [21:22]
Jill Manoff
I Forgot about that P180 company that is investing, just invested in Altazara. They're going to offer resale or set up resale for the company. And they did the same. I believe they're an investor. There's definitely a deal there with Elise Walker and they're really like sprawling out and making all of these, establishing all these partners in fashion brands. So that's a growing rental company. Not sure how large they are.
- [21:50]
Danny Parisi
Let's move on to our last topic. I want to talk a little bit about sort of just the evolution of how brands are distributing their product. I feel like this is something we've talked about a lot over the last couple years. But first there was wholesale and then there was kind of the DTC revolution a couple years ago, which I, you know, many people have told me has slowed down quite a lot because it really required a lot of funding, which is not flowing around anymore. And so something I've talked to a lot of brands about this year is like, are you doing more wholesale? Are you doing more dtc? Are you doing more marketplaces? Are you doing more social commerce? I feel like there's a lot of options for where brands can sell right now, and they're shifting a lot. There is department stores buying other department stores. There's online marketplaces like Farfetch'd just like kind of going bankrupt sort of out of nowhere or like on very short notice. There is big department stores that just won't pay you for the stuff that you sell. So there. I feel like it's very fraught right now and a lot of the people that I've been interviewing this year sound like it's kind of in flux. They're trying different channels and they're trying to kind of suss out what's the best kind of distribution and balance between the different channels. Very few people that I'm talking to are like, we're only dtc. We're only whatever. They're. They're trying everything. But I think everyone's trying to figure out what's the correct balance. What do you guys think?
- [23:10]
Tatiana Pyle
I feel like I've seen two things in my conversations. The first thing is especially Amazon. I think a lot of people are getting into the Amazon marketplace, whether that be to potentially curb the possibility of third party vendors selling their items or the fake items going out into the marketplace. But I was just talking with Jill about this. I've been seeing a lot of people return to brick and mortar. Hopefully in the new year I can do a story in this. But like in this past like 6 or 7 months there have been at least like 10 new mid to luxury store openings in Soho. And I find it so interesting in a time where as you talked about DTC seems like it is the more inaccessible option for many brands, especially independent brands. So it's been really, really interesting seeing that people are like, you know what? We're going to try to go back into the store. I know like earlier in the year we've talked about returning. People are going back shopping in the malls again too. So it's really interesting.
- [24:12]
Jill Manoff
You are teasing my bold calls, Tatiana, but okay, I'm with you. I am so with you. Yeah. And I think if we it wasn't the nail in the coffin on, on dtc only brands like last year definitely this year like brands cannot afford to do so and luxury brands even are, are they're finding their anyway they can't be so exclusive to reach today's modern consumer. More movement. More brands launching on Amazon, particularly at this very moment between Thanksgiving and Christmas, knowing that people are going to be placing these rushed orders. We're hearing that brands are signing onto Amazon because just like thinking about consumer behavior and that more people will be shopping on Amazon to, to get expedited shipping. We saw all of that movement like Danny said in luxury, E commerce and basically I don't know, there's a craving for like a human touch, a more IRL experience. Although Amazon is the exception I would say. We also on that note are hearing what's not working in that like personalization. Okay. Everyone's trying to do that. However, like we're, we're also hearing that retailers are like downsizing their stock to like eliminate what everyone is calling, what do they call it, like choice paralysis. There's just too much stuff. So that's hurting companies that are not able to like, I don't know, crack the personalization conundrum and get it right. Anyway, a lot of movement. No more dtc, IRL shopping Hot and marketplaces. Amazon. Yes. Others struggling is what I see.
- [25:45]
Danny Parisi
And Jill, it's funny you mentioned the choice paralysis, because I was going to say I feel like that for me as a consumer, is something, something I feel with like a big marketplace like Amazon or anything else, where it's like 100 different brands and I'm like, I search shirt and it gives me like, you know, a million options. It's like when you go to a restaurant and the menu is like 20 pages long. It's like, how can you possibly vet all this stuff and have all these ingredients? It like gives me a little bit of like, I. When it's only like three or four options, I feel both less. I feel like it's easier for me to browse. And also I like, I have a little more trust in like the situation here that there's not, you know, low quality stuff slipping through the cracks. And then the opposite of that is like TikTok shop or something like that, where there's just stuff. Not only is there a ton of stuff, but it's everywhere. It's like being sold at you from all angles. And it's like there's no way any of this is being like checked out for quality or something. So I think that's. That's definitely something brands will have to kind of deal with. And it's something I've heard from fashion brands for a long time about why they sometimes don't want to sell on Amazon is not wanting to be lumped in with like, all the other, you know, endless stream of random stuff that's on there. Interestingly, I feel like my. This is totally just my perspective as someone who only covers fashion, but it seems like the beauty side, you see a lot more of like the big premium kind of brands willing to sell on Amazon, maybe just because it's consumable or. I don't know what the cause might be for that, but that's my perspective. I feel like you hear about big, prestigious kind of beauty brands on Amazon all the time and not nearly as much with fashion.
- [27:21]
Jill Manoff
Agree. Because. No, but regardless of how much, if you're selling a $200 skincare product, it's not a 2000. I don't know. I think there's a pricing factor in there, but yeah, and you're buying toiletries, might as well throw it. You know, it's kind of more aligned with what Amazon is known for, but I don't know. I'm just guessing.
- [27:44]
Danny Parisi
No, I think that's a good thought. Any other thoughts on our last topic here before we Move on to our 2025 predictions.
- [27:51]
Jill Manoff
Did anybody else immediately think of the Cheesecake Factory when you said I was gonna say that?
- [27:57]
Tatiana Pyle
I was gonna say, well, Dani, I.
- [27:58]
Danny Parisi
Will say, oh, the long menu.
- [28:00]
Tatiana Pyle
Yes. Conversely, like, Cheesecake Factory has so many different cuisines, but they only put the best of each item on their personalization there.
- [28:12]
Danny Parisi
I'm. I have not been to a Cheesecake Cheesecake Factory in so long, but I'm thinking of like the various, like, diner type restaurants that are like, near me where it's like they've got breakfast and then they've got like a million different cakes and then they've got burritos somehow also. And I'm just like, I don't know how they, how they handle all of this stuff. But anyway, let's do our predictions. So last year, for our Year Ahead podcast, I asked everybody to have some bold predictions for 2024. Tatiana, you were not there, but it was me and Jill and Zofia. I'm going to read our predictions from last year and then we can talk about, you know, whether those came true and then we'll offer some predictions for 2025. Jill, you had a good one. Your prediction for 2024 was that both consumers and brands would put more value on experiences over stuff. That was your prediction, which you kind of mentioned again this year. I feel like that's a good one. Mine was that I believe I guessed last year that in 2024 we would see more publicly traded companies trying to take themselves private. I specifically said Allbirds, although that didn't happen, but I also just left it open kind of like, I'm sure we will see one or more big companies trying to go private. And then Zofia's I think was the most spot on, which was the Shein ification of everything, basically that we would see a lot more ascendance of Shein and also emulation of that model from the rest of the industry. Jill, let's start with yours. Experiences over Stef, I think that's true. I think that happened to a degree. I don't know. How do you feel about that one?
- [29:52]
Jill Manoff
Yeah, I don't know how bold that call was. It was already in swing, I think. Yeah, yeah. No, it was kind of wimpy, but yeah, I think it was good. But yeah, Sophia killed it.
- [30:02]
Danny Parisi
Sophia Zofia's I think was very accurate. Not necessarily that there's like more Shein's. Like, there's not like another company with the same size. I guess Teemu is like another one. But I do feel like the stuff that seems like it is from Shein is everywhere and but more from like lots of, you know, thousands of just randomly named, like independent sellers on, on the marketplaces that we're talking about. Like on TikTok shop, on Amazon, there's like all these, you know, thousands of extremely low price. And actually, you know, a really good indicator that Zofia was right is that Amazon literally like created Amazon haul, which is just like a Shein ripoff, like straight up basically with like $2 pants and everything. So I think she was completely correct about that one.
- [30:52]
Jill Manoff
I was amongst the people, like not fashion people. I was at the Mariah Carey Christmas spectacular and the row in front of me in St. Louis was hair. This, these cute girls who are all hairdressers and somebody was doing like a video and they're like outfit of the day and they're like top Shein pants. Shein. Like the whole outfit was Shein and the girl did. The next girl next to her did the same and they're like, we're hairdressers. You know, what are we going to do? They looked cute, actually. I hate to say it.
- [31:19]
Danny Parisi
Yeah. Wow. I mean that, that tracks to me though. I feel like it's. It wouldn't be that huge if hairdressers in St. Louis were not wearing it to Tao. She and mine, I think I was pretty proud of. So allbirds did not go private, although maybe they should. But Nordstrom did like make a big effort. It hasn't actually gone through, but the Nordstrom family is in the midst of a pretty high profile attempt to take the company private for a lot of the same reasons that we talked about last year, which is just that the pressure of being publicly traded to me feels like such a downside a lot of times, especially in kind of a tighter economic market or where there's a lot more uncertainty. I'm like, I would much rather be trying to navigate that stuff without shareholders, you know, or, or like the public, you know, pouring over every single bit of the financials. So I still think that there will be more publicly traded companies trying to go private, but I'm going to count this one as a victory for me because of the Nordstrom move. What about predictions for next year? Who wants to start?
- [32:23]
Tatiana Pyle
I have one that I've been saying all year long and it is partly driven by my own personal for you page. But I do think that Shein is, if not next year, the year after is eventually going to have to pay for its crimes more so, like, in the realm of, like, the materials that they use, like the polyesters, the microfibers, I've been seeing so much controversy or conversations around how terrible, which we all know terrible it is for your body and some of the implications of that. And especially right now where we were talking about this earlier, women's wellness, more specialized wellness has become, like, really huge. Like pcos, menopause, and polyester is a direct side effect, or is that. It can be. Can cause direct side effects for either one of those wellness issues. So I do think that eventually people are going to stop buying Shein. Maybe not cold turkey. I don't foresee that happening, but I do think at some point people are going to be like, okay, at what cost? Like, it can't affect my health. I foresee that happening soon.
- [33:31]
Danny Parisi
That's a good one. And I personally have been paying a lot more attention to what the clothes I buy are made of and, like, looking at the tag and like, really trying to avoid stuff that's just made of plastic. Like, I have a scarf that says 100% acrylic, and I'm like, it's just like, I don't even. How did you make a scarf out of that? I don't even understand. But that's a good one. Jill, what about you?
- [33:56]
Jill Manoff
I hope this is bold enough. I'm calling 2025. Like, you know, I've had folks from shopping centers on the podcast and interviewed them, and they really, like, hate the word mall. But I just think that it is the year of the mall. We're seeing the return of IRL shopping. We're seeing the boom, the success of these traditional mall brands like Gap and American Eagle and Abercrombie. But then we're seeing this whole rise of these kind of younger, cooler, faster mall brands that are actually setting up shop in malls and are being. Are beloved by the tiktokers and fashion folks of the world. And they're doing hauls online with Garage and Altered State and Addicted and Princess Polly and all of these brands. So again, the. The rise of more fast fashion, it seems. But also they're going into malls. And I'm. I'm just now talking to Belmont Park Village, which is more of an outlet but opening in New York, and a lot of malls opening. There's one, the founder of Girl, which is again, this young, booming mall brand, is opening one in Canada called the Royal Mount Mall that has. It kind of reminds me of American Dream and some of these big mega malls. So there's a return to investing in this type of shopping experience on behalf of brands and also the developers. So I think we'll see more here.
- [35:22]
Danny Parisi
I think that's a good one, too. And, Jill, I feel like you are the siren of the mall a little bit. I feel like you're constantly, like, reminding us that malls exist and that a lot of people shop there. And I, like, literally forget that.
- [35:34]
Tatiana Pyle
Oddly enough, I went to the mall this past weekend, and I meant to tell you, I went to the American Dream Mall in New Jersey.
- [35:39]
Jill Manoff
What did we think?
- [35:40]
Danny Parisi
Yes. Jill's favorite place.
- [35:43]
Jill Manoff
Do we love it?
- [35:44]
Tatiana Pyle
It was massive. And I'm not sure if it was because I went on a Sunday and there was also a game at the MetLife Stadium happening, but a lot of the stores were closed, so I didn't really get to go inside and really explore the way I wanted to. But there's a water park in there and there's like an amusement park in there as well.
- [36:02]
Jill Manoff
It's wild.
- [36:03]
Danny Parisi
And a ski slope and a roller coaster, and it's. It's insane.
- [36:07]
Tatiana Pyle
It's like quintessential America just over.
- [36:10]
Danny Parisi
I know. Everything is so wild. Okay, my prediction is kind of touches on our first topic. I think that Capri and Tapestry, I think, really were unlucky because they got their merger shut down literally right before the woman who shut it down is like, getting fired and being replaced by someone who will be open to mergers. So my. My prediction is that we will see some big mergers and consolidation in the next year, and for two reasons. For economic reasons, because, like. Because of all the, like, various challenges we've been talking about. I think just like, smaller companies have a lot harder time getting off the ground, and if they do, they're probably going to be a lot more open to getting acquired by somebody else. And the big companies will be much better positioned to snap up potential rivals while they're still small. And then also for a regulatory reason, like we said, I think the incoming administration will be much friendlier to allowing monopolistic behavior. So that's my prediction. I don't know. I thought about making it more specific. We will see, like, three big, you know, acquisition or something. I don't know if I want to put a number on it, which is maybe cowardly, but I just feel my vibe is that the. The mergers and acquisition season has. Has begun.
- [37:32]
Jill Manoff
So that's my prediction that will suffice.
- [37:35]
Danny Parisi
Cool. Anything else you guys want to say about 2025 before we wrap up?
- [37:40]
Jill Manoff
It'll be huge for glossy.
- [37:42]
Danny Parisi
I mean, obviously It'll be a big year for Glossy. We we were talking about some of our our potential editorial coverage. As soon as we're back, we will be at nrf. We will be covering and talking to the executives there. We've got lots of other events and editorial stuff planned throughout 2025. At Glossy. We'll obviously be doing lots of podcasts. We'll be covering New York Fashion Week and the other fashion weeks in February. So we have a lot of fun stuff, even just in the first two months of the year.
- [38:13]
Jill Manoff
Check it out.
- [38:15]
Danny Parisi
Yeah. So thank you both Jill and Tatiana. This was so fun. Thanks for giving me your predictions. We'll see next year. We will check in and see how we did. For those of you listening, don't forget to give us a rating and a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify wherever you listen to this. That helps us out so much. Don't forget to subscribe to the Glossy podcast because you'll hear interviews with industry insiders every Wednesday and week, interview episodes with me every Friday. Until then, have a good rest of your year and we will talk to you all soon.