Podcast Summary: The Good Fight Episode: Shashank Joshi on Why the War in the Middle East Won’t End Anytime Soon Host: Yascha Mounk
Guest: Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor at The Economist
Date: March 21, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the ongoing war in the Middle East, focusing on the military and political objectives of the United States, Israel, and Iran. Yascha Mounk welcomes defense analyst Shashank Joshi for an in-depth discussion of recent developments, the broader strategic consequences, the state of the Iranian regime, and the impact on global energy and politics. The conversation offers clarity on a conflict that remains mired in complexity, persistent violence, and unclear endgames.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nature of the Conflict: War of Attrition

• [03:48] Shashank Joshi: The conflict is best understood as a war of attrition, with the US and Israel seeking to degrade Iran’s military and political power, while Iran seeks to retaliate by disrupting the world economy and hitting back at its adversaries.
  • The US aims to "attrit Iran's military strength, its ability to project power ... the most obvious metric of that is Iranian missile capability."
  • Israel’s operational aims include attriting the Iranian leadership to ultimately make the regime susceptible to popular overthrow, but this is seen as a long shot.

2. Successes and Shortcomings of Military Objectives

• [06:00] Shashank Joshi: The US and Israel have been militarily successful in striking missiles, supply chains, and naval assets, leaving Iran in a weakened state.
• [08:04] Shashank Joshi: However, the underlying assumption that this would topple the regime or prevent future threats is questionable.
  • “This war need not have been fought in the way that it has. I think the same things could have been achieved by other means.”

3. Iran and Regional Proxies: Lasting Impact?

• [08:04] Shashank Joshi: Iran’s influence over groups like Hamas and Hezbollah was already significantly diminished before this latest war began.
  • “Most of that diminishment, diminution was done prior to this conflict.”
  • While missile capacity is largely degraded, Iran could rebuild over time, especially with “remedial action at great cost.”

4. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Reality vs Rhetoric

• [12:20] Shashank Joshi: The supposed rationale for war—halting Iran’s nuclear weapons program—is overstated by US officials.
  • “A war that is ostensibly about the nuclear program actually has seen very, very little to do with nuclear forces so far, although perhaps that's yet to come.”
  • Iran’s nuclear facilities were severely damaged in past bombings, but in the current campaign, most enrichment sites remain untouched.
  • There’s concern Iran could double down on nuclear ambitions out of anger and leadership radicalization.

5. Iran’s Response: Economic Retaliation and Global Effects

• [16:25] Shashank Joshi: Iran’s main retaliatory lever is blocking or restricting energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz—affecting 20% of global oil traffic.

  • “There is this huge knock on effect on manufacturing and not just on energy, but also on the food supply.”
  • While the US is more insulated due to increased domestic energy production, Europe and Asia bear the brunt.

• [19:22] Shashank Joshi: The US, thanks to fracking, is less exposed, but not immune. Rising gas prices could have major political consequences for the Trump administration, especially ahead of midterm elections.

6. Can Trump (or the US) End the War?

• [21:58] Shashank Joshi: The dynamic is now beyond the US’s unilateral control.
  • “My feeling is that, no, he couldn't... it is now in Iran's interest to exact a heavy price … to deter future attacks like this.”
  • Iran controls the tempo and may only reopen shipping lanes on its own terms.

7. Why Iran Didn’t Block Hormuz Before

• [25:05] Shashank Joshi: Iran feels existentially threatened now, unlike in previous crises, leading it to weaponize the Strait despite the high diplomatic and economic cost.
  • “If you're desperate and the regime is at risk and you're going to fall, why not do it? Why not pull the temple down with you?”

8. The Iranian Regime: Internal Dynamics & (Un)likelihood of Collapse

• [28:14] Shashank Joshi: The regime’s weakness is “fundamental,” marked by economic crisis, loss of legitimacy, and widespread unpopularity.
  • Recent assassinations have left the regime more “brittle” and “hardline.”
  • The loss of moderate and pragmatic figures has led to “younger, more radical, more ideological” leadership.
  • Risks remain high for further brutality, with little chance of imminent collapse due to internal disorganization and opposition fears of a Syria-style breakdown.
  • Memorable Quote (31:10): “You have a brittle regime, a weak regime, but it's not about to fall apart, although I do wish, I wish it were. And it's full of people who in some ways are younger, more radical, more ideological than the people who have been killed in large numbers in previous days.”

9. Prediction: Conflict Duration and “Off Ramps”

• [33:34] Shashank Joshi: The war is likely to continue into April, driven by the severity of the oil shock, the need to degrade Iran’s missile capacities, and the complex military realities of reopening Hormuz.
  • “So my baseline scenario is a war that stretches into April, but I think you have a pretty good prospect of a pause, if not a full fledged ceasefire by the end of April.”

10. Israel’s Calculus and Regional Position

• [36:47] Shashank Joshi: Israel has achieved many military goals, especially weakening Hezbollah, but collapse of the Iranian regime looks unlikely.
  • Israel's strategy is “never to solve a problem for good. It has been to buy time.”
  • Debate ongoing about the wisdom of a deeper ground campaign in Lebanon.
  • Despite civilian costs from Iranian retaliation, Israel is still relatively insulated, but the region as a whole is less stable.

11. Information Blackouts, Open Source Intelligence & Press Freedoms

• [40:51] Shashank Joshi: The fog of war is exacerbated by Internet blackouts in Iran and the US pressure on satellite imagery companies to delay or withhold evidence of bombings and strikes.
  • "What has happened is satellite companies ... have shut down the flow of images ... That is a huge problem ... because it makes it much, much less amenable to scrutinizing the conduct of all sides in this conflict..."

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Shashank Joshi [03:48]: “The aim is to attrit Iran's military strength, its ability to project power from its base throughout the region.”
• Shashank Joshi [08:04]: “Most of that diminishment, diminution was done prior to this conflict.”
• Shashank Joshi [12:20]: "Iran was not imminently about to make any substantial steps towards a nuclear weapon and it would have been some time away."
• Shashank Joshi [25:05]: "The reason it has gone after the Hormuz is because it feels the regime is at risk and anything is worth trying."
• Shashank Joshi [31:10]: “You have a brittle regime, a weak regime, but it's not about to fall apart, although I do wish, I wish it were. And it's full of people who in some ways are younger, more radical, more ideological than the people who have been killed in large numbers in previous days.”
• Shashank Joshi [33:34]: "My baseline scenario is a war that stretches into April, but I think you have a pretty good prospect of a pause, if not a full fledged ceasefire by the end of April."
• Shashank Joshi [36:47]: "Israel's strategy is never to solve a problem for good. It has been to buy time."
• Shashank Joshi [40:51]: "[Satellite image blackout] is a huge problem ... because it makes it much, much less amenable to scrutinizing the conduct of all sides in this conflict..."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:48 – Defining the war of attrition, US and Israeli objectives
• 08:04 – Real impact on Iran’s regional power and proxies
• 12:20 – Iran’s nuclear program: damage and future threat
• 16:25 – Iran’s response: energy/economic warfare and global shock
• 19:22 – The US and energy security; political fallout
• 21:58 – Who controls the outcome: US, Iran, or neither?
• 25:05 – Why Iran escalated: existential regime pressure
• 28:14 – Internal state of the Iranian regime; protest prospects
• 31:10 – Prediction: regime survival and protest outlook
• 33:34 – Conflict duration and potential “off ramp”
• 36:47 – Israel’s aims, military and political consequences
• 40:51 – Censorship & difficulties in covering the war

Tone and Language

The conversation is analytic and evidence-based, mixing cautious skepticism with some moments of dark humor (e.g., the Immanuel Kant quip [30:11]). Both Mounk and Joshi are frank in acknowledging the limits of prediction and the seriousness of the costs borne by civilians and global partners.

Summary Takeaways

• The war is grinding and highly destructive, with clear military “successes” but murky strategic payoffs.
• The Iranian regime, while battered and radicalized, is unlikely to fall soon.
• The global economic shock, especially to energy and commodities, is severe and may outlast military hostilities.
• Israel’s long-term posture is shaped by a cycle of “buying time” rather than expecting permanent solutions.
• Information flow is being deliberately constrained by all sides, making public scrutiny more challenging at a pivotal moment.
• No easy or rapid resolution is likely; expect the war’s impact to persist for months, even after open hostilities end.