Podcast
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Hosted by Nate Hagens · EN
The Great Simplification is a podcast that explores the systems science underpinning the human predicament. Through conversations with experts and leaders hosted by Dr. Nate Hagens, we explore topics spanning ecology, economics, energy, geopolitics, human behavior, and monetary/financial systems. Our goal is to provide a simple educational resource for the complex energetic, physical, and social constraints ahead, and to inspire people to play a role in our collective future. Ultimately, we aim to normalize these conversations and, in doing so, change the initial conditions of future events.
44episodes
Episodes
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A World On the Precipice: The Last Oil Tanker From the Strait of Hormuz has Arrived – Now What? with Art Berman
2d ago01:40:32Tap to summarizeThe last pre-war shipments of oil products from the Strait of Hormuz have arrived at their destinations as of early May, meaning the promise of an energy crisis as a result of the Iran war is fast approaching. Leading experts are now forecasting energy disruptions ranging from rationing to severe shortages in import-dependent economies, with roughly 11% of global oil supply already offline. This leaves us with the question: even if this war were to end today, what sort of system-wide effects are locked in given the current loss in production, and what will be required of us to cope with the fallout? In this episode, Nate welcomes back petroleum geologist Art Berman to break down the timeline of the looming oil shortages stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and just how severe they could become within a tightly coupled, complex global system. Art explains why, even if the war were to end today, the inherent lags in our industrial supply chains mean shortfalls are already baked into the coming months. The resulting rise in energy prices will reach far beyond the pump, rippling out into the cost of virtually everything and confronting much of the world with conditions not seen in over five decades. Ultimately, Art sees this as a forcing mechanism that could compress decades of needed adjustment into months. The outcome will rely less on policy than on whether societies can absorb the shock without breaking. Amid all the speculation about oil prices in the wake of the Iranian conflict, what do these numbers actually mean in physical terms? If this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, are we already past the peak of the global material economy, with the financial layer not yet caught up to the physics? And if this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, what lessons from our deep past might help us find our way forward? (Conversation recorded on May 6th, 2026) About Art Berman: Art Berman is a petroleum geologist with over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →Wide Boundary News: Sacrificing Wilderness, Oil Data Propaganda, and Feeding the Superorganism's Brain
1w ago00:25:10Tap to summarizeThis week's Frankly is another edition of Wide Boundary News, where Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. He begins with the misleading framing of recent oil production statistics by the United States, which blurs distinctions between crude oil and broader petroleum products. Nate uses this as a case study in how data can be technically correct, yet structurally misleading – particularly when used for political storytelling. The lens widens as he considers whether the peak of the carbon pulse could pass without clear public understanding, especially as access to the underlying data becomes more restricted and fragmented. Nate then moves into the geopolitical and physical consequences of energy strain, focusing on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint in global oil flows. He connects ongoing disruptions not only to price spikes, but also to how energy functions as a security commodity. These disruptions also extend into cascading effects on food systems, as things like fertilizer supply and cooking fuel reverse in access and affordability. Moving closer to home, Nate discusses the opening of Minnesota's Boundary Waters for copper-nickel mining, highlighting the tension between ecosystem protection and demand for mineral inputs to power any magnitude of energy transition. He also touches on the rapid expansion of AI data centers and the large share of electricity they use, framing this trend as the economic Superorganism diverting massive energy flows toward its cognitive layer, rather than only its muscular layer. Finally, Nate closes with a reflection on industrial livestock productivity as another expression of a system optimized for high output, but operating under energy conditions that may no longer hold. Why do we need to think about energy as a security commodity? How much of our future depends on being told the truth? And what have we bred for – in cows, seed varieties, supply chains, cities, and financial systems – that we will not be able to feed, medicate, or transport on the backside of the carbon pulse? (Recorded May 5th, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →Why Each American Lives Like a 40-Ton Whale: Power, Overshoot, and Climate with Tad Patzek
1w ago01:35:47Tap to summarizeMany of us were taught that humans have been the dominant force shaping the modern world through sheer grit, ingenuity, and innovation. While true to an extent, there are also deep, embedded laws of energy that have both constrained and enabled human cleverness and our influence over our surroundings. What exactly are these laws, and what happened in the past few centuries that allowed for an explosion of technology and consumption? Perhaps more importantly, how can that knowledge help us understand how the decades and centuries ahead might be different? In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for a deep dive into the mathematics and physics driving humanity's energetic and material predicament. Tad walks us through the six great flows of power and materials that keep civilization running, and explains why our public conversation about all of them is dangerously detached from physical reality. He argues that planetary breakdown is not merely a side effect of an economic system built on growing these flows – it is a direct mathematical consequence of overshoot. He rounds out this picture by pointing out that every energy transition in history has been additive, not subtractive – increasing total power in the system – and the current push toward renewables is no exception. What if we were to truly see ourselves through the lens of all the energy we consume – for Americans, the equivalent of a 40-ton whale – would that change how we live? How do technology, population, and per capita energy consumption amplify each other, creating an exponential demand for power? And if we were to acknowledge the inseparability of our ecological crises and our energy blindness, would it help us change our behavior in accordance with the kind of world we'd want our grandchildren to inherit? (Conversation recorded on March 11th, 2026)\ About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek's current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →A Perspective From Lebanon: Who Will We Be When Things Get Hard? | Frankly 140
2w ago00:16:26Tap to summarizeIn this week's Frankly, Nate steps away from analysis and reflects on a call that reframed his thinking. He shares a recent conversation with a close friend living in Lebanon, who amid ongoing daily violence and loss has been hosting displaced families and leading meditation practices in her community. Nate notes that her grounded presence, alongside the trust she carries from a centuries-old lineage in her village, reveals the ways in which social capital and contemplative practice can hold someone steady as the world around them changes. From that conversation, Nate distills the wider work of this platform into three questions he believes may matter more than the macro-analysis he usually offers. Who are we going to be when comfort and convenience start thinning out? How are we going to live with a biophysical haircut on the horizon? And what are we willing to protect, even at a cost? He notices how many people watching from the relative safety of the Global North live in a constant low-grade state of stress, even without immediate cause, while his friend remains grounded despite being surrounded by actual danger. Nate suggests that separating our internal responses from the external world is the primary work ahead of us, and closes by naming the recent shift in his own curiosity toward the question of who we might become as humans sitting at the precipice of a species-level transition. When comfort and convenience start thinning out, who are you going to be? How do you separate your internal fight or flight response from what is actually happening around you? And what are you willing to give some of your life's energy to protect? (Recorded April 30th, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →This War Changes Everything: Are We Ready for Energy Shockwaves From the Strait of Hormuz? with Rory Johnston
2w ago01:27:17Tap to summarizeOver three-quarters of the global population has never lived through a major global energy crisis, such as those of the 1970s. In early 2026, that is about to change as the world faces the largest energy disruption in history, measured by the daily loss of oil output. This crisis won't be evenly distributed but will be felt everywhere – and is guaranteed to have ripple effects we won't see coming. How much oil remains in circulation, and what level of damage has already been inflicted on our global energy infrastructure? In this episode, Nate is joined by oil market analyst Rory Johnston to discuss how the Strait of Hormuz closure has led to the largest oil supply shock in history, and what the exact numbers and cascading effects are. He also breaks down the primary strategies countries will have to use to adapt to energy losses, including resorting to demand destruction, and what the disastrous risks are if shortages are allowed to persist. Rory also explains the lag between the closure, the real world impact of oil not being able to enter global circulation, and the market's response. Ultimately, Rory and Nate explore the impact of this situation on international trust and cooperation, and what that might mean for a global market system predicated on interdependence and free trade. Who are the energy winners and losers in this war so far, and how are our global leaders accounting for the exponential risks of continued warfare? In what way can average people prepare for the energy shocks soon to ripple out across the globe? And lastly, if we do recover from this scenario, how might we treat these disruptions as a dress rehearsal for a future of lower material throughput by building greater resilience and interconnection at the local level? (Conversation recorded on April 23rd, 2026) About Rory Johnston: Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →How to Think About the Future (Part 2): Four Variables Shaping the Coming Decades | Frankly 139
3w ago00:32:35Tap to summarizeThis week's Frankly is part two of the series How to Think About the Future. Today, Nate expands on the case for holding a distribution of possible futures rather than a single preferred one, and walks through a structured scenario-building exercise. He begins with the two-by-two grid that he has used for years, which indicates whether the economy will expand or contract and whether this happens within ecological limits or in overshoot. The four quadrants this produces represent possible directions toward the future: toward green growth, Mordor, Mad Max, or the Great Simplification. From there, Nate layers three more grids on top of this economic foundation. A grid focused on power – military, political, financial, and technological – asks how concentrated each is and where the gains flow. A grid regarding geopolitics maps cooperation and adversarial relations against interdependence and self-sufficiency, using the Strait of Hormuz closure as a live example of an adversarial and interdependent geopolitical makeup. Finally, an Earth systems grid tracks climate stress and biosphere integrity, taking into account that we are operating from an already compromised baseline. Nate also describes the role of technology as a modifier across all these grids, which amplifies whatever direction the surrounding system is already moving. He emphasizes that the real future will always come as a composite across these layers, and that the same economic headline produces radically different lived realities depending on the power, geopolitical, and ecological conditions it sits inside. Where do you find yourself already settled on a particular view of the future, and what gets filtered out when you are? Of the four grids Nate lays out, which feels most defining in your thinking, and which do you tend to underweight? What other grids might matter for anticipating the future, and how might they interact with the ones here? (Recorded April 20th, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →Wisdom in a World in Crisis: The Counterintuitive Need to Slow Down and Find Spaciousness with Iain McGilchrist
3w ago02:07:59Tap to summarizeFor many of us, our instinctual response to rising conflict and instability might be to recede further into pragmatism as a way to survive. Yet, if our cultural values and ways of life are what got us here, rooted in narrow-boundary, cold, and logical thinking – then perhaps moments of turbulence like these actually call on us to change our way of thinking entirely. Is this moment our opportunity to pivot toward worldviews that emphasize the intangible qualities of life, and could that shift cause a cascade through our actions and decisions, leading to more balanced decision-making for the betterment of everyone? In this episode, Nate is rejoined by philosopher and neuroscientist Iain McGilchrist for discussion on how our left-brain dominance obscures our sense of value, especially for abstract qualities such as truth, goodness, and beauty. As a way to reclaim an appreciation for these things, he urges us to slow down, create spaciousness, embrace silence and deep listening, and resist the mania for productivity in our modern culture. Nate and Iain also discuss consciousness, panpsychism, and panentheism, exploring the thread that there might be some form of universal current running through everything, uniting us all. Bringing everything together, Iain calls for a recovery of humility, compassion, awe, and wonder and insists that even a small percentage of people genuinely living differently could begin to shift cultural consciousness. How do the things we choose to pay attention to affect our ability to see what's important in the world – and subsequently what we value and prioritize? What would it feel like to treat each day as a gift rather than a problem to solve, and how might that shift our relationship with time, mortality, and meaning? Most of all, is it possible for some subset of humans to reground ourselves and our behavior in the interconnectedness of life, and could those small changes add up to meaningfully alter humanity's current trajectory? (Conversation recorded on March 24th, 2026) About Iain McGilchrist: Dr. Iain McGilchrist is a Quondam Fellow of All Souls College, Oxford, an Associate Fellow of Green Templeton College, Oxford, a Fellow of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and former Consultant Psychiatrist and Clinical Director at the Bethlem Royal & Maudsley Hospital, London. Iain has been a Research Fellow in neuroimaging at Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore and a Fellow of the Institute of Advanced Studies in Stellenbosch. He has published original articles and research papers in a wide range of publications on topics in literature, philosophy, medicine and psychiatry. Iain is the author of a number of books, but is best-known for The Master and his Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World (2009); and his book on neuroscience, epistemology, and ontology called The Matter with Things: Our Brains, Our Delusions and the Unmaking of the World (2021). Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →How to Think About the Future (Part 1): Changing the Future Starts with How You Think | Frankly 138
4w ago00:31:53Tap to summarizeIn this week's Frankly, Nate opens a new series called How to Think About the Future. He begins with some comments he's heard repeatedly on this platform: why cover nuclear, plastics, renewables, or climate when something else is the real issue? Nate observes that these questions come from people who have already settled on a single storyline about what's coming, and are filtering everything else through it. Our actual reality is much more complex and unknowable, and even the most well-informed perspectives may only be able to capture pieces of the bigger picture. Nate emphasizes that even his own base scenario – that the global economy is likely to hit a wall in the relatively-near future – should be held with humility. Nate introduces the idea of "scenario thinking" as a practical strategy to reflect on and prepare for several versions of the future, keeping one engaged and grounded in what matters. He also names why this line of thinking is hard in practice – 1. our nervous systems want resolution, 2. our careers and identities are attached to particular futures, and 3. cultural incentives reward confident stories over honest uncertainty. The episode closes by introducing shortfall risk, which is the danger that something essential, like topsoil, social trust, grid stability, or the nuclear taboo drops below a threshold from which it cannot easily recover. This concept will act as connective tissue across the rest of the series, which is an attempt to expand perception instead of picking the right future, and to identify what is coupled, what is irreversible, and what kinds of responses stay robust across many possible worlds. Where in your life have you quietly settled on a single story about the future? Which of the essentials you rely on would be hardest to rebuild if they fell below a threshold? And how might the decisions you make this week change if you held more than one plausible future in mind at the same time? (Recorded April 11th, 2026) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →The Fantasy of Space Colonization: The Spaceship We're Already On with Tom Murphy & DJ White | RR 24
Apr 1501:35:46Tap to summarizeOn the heels of Artemis II, our cultural obsession with space colonization continues, even as we face increasing global resource constraints and planetary health declines. Techno-optimists, including some of the wealthiest among us, dream of a future where we mine, travel to, and colonize other planets – all in the hopes of bypassing the problems we now face on Earth. But from the perspective of physics and ecology, how feasible is space colonization – and are these interplanetary ambitions blinding us to the miracle of the planetary spaceship we already inhabit? In this episode, Nate welcomes back astrophysicist Tom Murphy and eco-interventionist DJ White, two longtime friends with deep roots in both space science and ecological reality, to examine the surging cultural fascination with space mining and off-world colonization. Drawing on decades of experience with NASA missions, lunar laser ranging, and biophysical research, Tom and DJ outline the economic impossibility of asteroid mining, the physiological brutality of long-duration spaceflight, and the absurdity underlying dreams of Mars colonization. Both guests also argue that space colonization has, at its core, become a convenient story that lets humanity off the hook for the damage being done here at home. What if the real tragedy isn't that we can't reach the stars – it's that we've stopped paying attention to the planetary home we're already on? If the most brilliant minds drawn to space exploration redirected that energy toward the living systems collapsing around us right now, what might become possible? And what if we could recognize that the complexity, beauty, and intelligence we hope to discover elsewhere in the cosmos is, improbably and urgently, still here? (Conversation recorded on February 24th, 2026) About Tom Murphy: Tom Murphy is a Professor Emeritus of the Department of Physics and the Department Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California San Diego. He retired in 2023 and moved to Washington State to focus more on the predicament of modernity and its ecological incompatibilities. He is the author of Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, creator of the Metastatic Modernity video series, and continues to explore long-term human success through his Do the Math blog. About DJ White: DJ White is a co-founder of Greenpeace International and founder of EarthTrust. He has played a leading role in protecting dolphins, whales, sea turtles, and countless other marine animals, including successfully stopping a national dolphin drive kill and breaking the deadlock in capping the Kuwait oil fires. Additionally, he helped end the world's largest and most destructive global fishery – pelagic driftnetting – and created the lab which first demonstrated self-awareness in the universe outside the great apes. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Transcribe →Oil 301: The World After Cheap Energy | Frankly 137
Apr 1100:16:14Tap to summarizeToday's Frankly is the final installment in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Nate frames the entire arc of this series through the concept of the carbon pulse: a one-time inheritance of ancient stored sunlight that humanity is burning through in a few hundred years. He highlights how modern economies, now roughly a thousand times larger than five centuries ago, are built on the assumption that the energy abundance at the top of this curve is permanent, when in reality it is not. Nate traces how money functions as a claim on physical work, not a substitute for it, and how the financial scaffolding that made shale oil viable depends on cheap capital that may not last. He connects this directly to what he calls energy blindness: the absence of biophysical reality from mainstream economic and political analysis. Nate also draws a direct line between the energy crisis and the ecological crisis, framing them as two faces of the same predicament. The carbon pulse created both the unfolding ecological damage from burning too many fossil fuels, and the depletion crisis from drawing them down too fast. He outlines how forests, wildlife, and food systems all face increasing risk from both climate disruption and human desperation, and how geopolitical alliances are fracturing along lines of energy access rather than ideology. The episode closes with Nate's framing of the Great Simplification not as collapse, but as a potential reorientation, as well as an invitation to consider what actually produces human wellbeing: connection, purpose, community, and service. These are satisfactions that predate the carbon pulse, and do not require a barrel of oil. What does it mean to build a civilization on a one-time energy inheritance, and then plan as though it will last? How might individuals and societies begin to reorient around what actually matters, before external circumstances force the issue? And as the carbon pulse peaks, who do we want to be on the way down? (Recorded March 31st, 2025) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
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