Bitcoin developer Brandon Black (ReardenCode) analyzes the reality of the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin. He explains the timeline for potential encryption breaks and why the sky isn't falling just yet. Brandon explains proposed solutions like BIP 360 and OP_CAT, and we debate whether Satoshi's stash will eventually be stolen or confiscated.

Notes:

* RSA keys moved from 1024 to 4096 bits

* 2-3k logical qubits needed to break ECC

* Logical qubits need 99.999% accuracy

* Biggest quantum factored number is ~15.

* BIP 360 new BC1Z address type.

Timestamps:

00:00 Start

00:25 The Quantum discussion

02:43 Initial thoughts on Quantum

06:51 How would a Quantum computer work?

11:10 Quantum vs conventional computing

14:25 Rearden's general take on Quantum

16:29 Why so divided on issue?

20:13 Error correction

22:42 You gave it the answer already

25:36 It's not scaling!

30:06 Easily readable research?

34:24 The "hidden" quantum computer

38:08 Crab market = roll FUD dice

39:59 TradFi is jumpy

41:01 The plan

42:57 What is "bitcoin working"?

46:13 Screeching about Core Devs

48:21 Core team & gatekeeping

53:12 BIP 360

56:19 Are MY keys safe now?

1:01:20 Satoshi's coins

1:05:04 Opinions in the community

1:10:56 Bitcoin upgrades coming?

The Gwart Show is sponsored by Ellipsis Labs. Backed by Paradigm, Electric Capital and Haun Ventures. The founders, Eugene and Jerry, have experienced Citadel Jane Street in the Solana Core team since launching their order book DEX, Phoenix. They’ve done over $80 billion in trading volume by making onchain order books competitive with centralized exchanges.

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Getting To The Bottom Of Quantum w/ Rearden