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The hard count presented by Polymarket. All college football season long, baby. There's an old expression in this space. The house always wins. Not when you use Polymarket. There is no house edge. This is fans trading with fans. This is college football sickos trading with college football sickos. Two sided market. When you sign up using the Polymarket app. Code on three. Tell you what, man, $10 deposited. Polymarket gives you 20 bucks just for signing up using code on three. Look at the markets they have, man. They got a ton of them. From national champions to player props to head to head games to other stuff like coach firings. Polymarket is your spot all college football season long. Also really cool, Polymarket. The app's got a little live chat feature. So the Polymarket live chat, man, we can talk smack. We can work together towards the greater good of all college football season. So again, lock in using code on 3. The Polymarket app gonna be an absolute blast. All college football season long trading not available in all jurisdictions. Check local regulations before trading restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Now let's get to the show and welcome into the hard count. It is a Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026. Last one on the face of the planet. As always, presented by Poly Market fuel riding shotgun, 40 grams of protein on your head top, y'. All, I said it last time, I'm going to say it again. We, we made it. Give yourself a pat on the back. I mean, this is, this is a beautiful time of the year, man. You look across your Twitter feed, or X whatever you want to call it these days, and you see a different snippet from a press conference from a coach during fall camp or a practice clip from fall camp. I don't care that we're not popping the pad just yet. Across the country, we got football being played, we got cleats in the ground, we got electrolytes being consumed. It is a beautiful time to be alive. It isn't even more. It is an even more beautiful time to be alive. If you're a college football fan. I'm speaking fast. I'm getting worked up. You know why? Because we freaking love this stuff, dude. Freaking love this stuff. And it's our time of year to hunker down, to read the practice reports, to, to get the intel, to get excited about the season. Because you know what? They play football this month. That actually counts for something. So gosh dang it, if we don't enjoy every single part of this that's on us on this show. Here, we're going to absolutely enjoy every single part of it. That's what this thing has always been built on, and that's not changing now anytime soon. Okay, so we're going to we got fall camp intel from across the Sunshine State. In addition to that, a couple of games early on on the slate that I want to make sure we get out ahead of and just tell you if things break a certain way, we'll react to it, we'll consume it, we'll, we'll talk about it, but we're not going to overreact to it. More on that later. Let's go out to Gainesville Fall camp opening up for the Gators Year one of the John Summerall era on and popping the reports out of spring practice were it's a little bit different around here now. John Somerl is bringing that energy, that juice. I have to imagine no different when it comes to talking about fall camp out there for the Gators. Dallas Wilson, remember, he's kind of dinged up. Last year, only played in a handful of games. He's back 6 foot 3, 213 pounds. Dude is explosive. Tell you what we got to see. Just I feel like a preview to the Dallas Wilson movie last year. If and when he's healthy, he's going to be, I think, one of the best receivers in the sec. Like I genuinely feel that way. We saw him against Texas last year. Six grabs, 111 yards, two touchdowns, and he wasn't even all the way healthy. If he can stay healthy and be healthy, he's going to be an absolute matchup nightmare and just uber productive, especially if they have a guy at quarterback. More on that later. The early intel out of fall camp just opening up, still getting everything rolling. But he looks to be healthy, looks to be explosive, which is massive after he sat up spring ball for the Gators out there. The quarterback battle, I mean, it's early on in the fall camp. Not a lot to take away just yet, but according to the folks over at Gators online, everything that John somewhere else said to us during media days about feeling good about both quarterbacks kind of continues to be a theme across the Florida beat. Like you talk about Tramell Jones, there were people out of spring practice. I thought maybe Tramell Jones had the edge in that quarterback battle after he had a a big spring game. Feel like he's maybe a touch leaner than he was during spring, if that matters to you. They think that he maybe has the stronger arm between him and Aaron Philo should be noted too Aaron Philo, based on what he was during spring practice and now going into fall camp. A report on Gators Online says that they think maybe Aaron Philo's got a little bit more oomph behind his his passes so far through fall camp, so we'll see what happens there. The thing that I want to keep us all tuned into during fall camp, who makes the most plays when it comes to the scrimmages? Now we'll have to go off the intel. I'm sure there won't be anything that's making its way to us in video format when it comes to breaking down the scrimmages out there for Florida. But who is able to play the best out of structure? Because it's no secret the offensive line bit of a question mark. John Sumrall, based on his comments from media days, has done nothing to quiet down those questions around the offensive line. Who is the best? Hey, things aren't perfect up front, but I can make something happen. Whether it's extending the play, whether it's finding a way to get some yards with my legs myself. Like who has the most baller to them. Excited to see what that looks like during during fall camp and very excited to get the intel when it comes to scrimmage time out there in Gainesville. Has he Kent Hezzy? Kent's our freaking guy on this show, man. If you remember Hezekiah, he made some waves during spring practice because he was a 300 plus pound tight end running around out there. True freshman, early enrollee out there running routes on air, looking pretty smooth doing it. But you see a 313 pound body running routes, you're like hang on a second. Doesn't. Doesn't someone of that stature typically have their hand in the dirt and hit a little pass set for us during Springbo? Isn't that kind of how that whole thing works? Has he Kent down from 313 to 288? Reports are he looks smooth running around, doing so. No idea if he will have a role at all this year for Florida offensively, but if they can get him right with his size, if you can have him out there in 12 personnel. Remember how freaking tough Georgia was to beat when they had Darnell Washington out there and Brock Bowers. I'm not saying has he Kent Darnell Washington? I'm not saying Florida has another tight end like Brock Bowers, but just remember how dynamic Georgia was able to be when you could essentially have an extra offensive lineman out there. Whenever you went 12 personnel and you had a guy who could be a matchup problem for linebackers and safeties. Hezzy Kent, we're rooting for your brother here because if he gets it right, if they get him right, he's gonna be a problem. So excited to track his progress. Sounds like there is some progress over the course of spring practice. Now going into fall camp for the young buck, Jaden Bob. You already know what he is. It's gonna be a guy they force feed the football to. Obviously handing him the rock. Some early intel though, out of fall camp is looks like he's getting some extra work as a pass catcher. Now it's a couple days into fall camp, so I don't know if there's anything to really scream about here, but if you can maximize Jaden Bob the receiver for Florida, that's going to put a lot of strain on defenses because look at jaden boss. Size 6 foot 1, 231 pounds. You don't really want to have to put a safety on that body type. But if he's able to be a polished route runner, I don't think a linebacker feels great about sticking with Jaden Boss. So we'll see what what happens there. But I'm telling you what, man, he's going to be gonna be someone that sees a lot of the football this year. John Summerall said as much during his opening presser. Caught 33 passes last year using him as a back out of the backfielder. If they split him out wide as well, Jaden Bob is going to get his this year. Promise you that. L.J. mcRae on the defensive side. Defensive lineman up to 277 pounds per Keith Niebuhr. He kind of looks like one of those guys that might be first off the bus is what I'm getting at here. Got to have it in the sec. Now it's early on in fall camp, which is a part of the year where we sort of tread lightly when it comes to speaking about the trenches because we don't have the pads on. We don't have a ton to go off of when it comes to 11 on 11. But God forbid we get excited about our D lineman being of a few pounds, looking like he's carved out of some marble. I'm all the way here for that with LJ McCray. Last thing I'll say here on Florida, before we move on across the Sunshine State, I am enormously eager to hear about the scrimmages. Sure. Hear about the offensive line. Sure. But the more I sat with the intel we have right now, around Florida, I just can't help but feel like if you could give me one solid answer on one of the questions I have about them, they have a chance to be really, really good. Because I've said before, I hate the fact that we're asking about the offensive line of the way that we are. I hate the fact that we don't know for sure without a shot of a doubt that we have a guaranteed dud quarterback. I hate that. Hate that we're talking about the, the middle of the defensive line being something to watch here. But if we could just say, hey, we think that we're good enough on the offensive line to have a chance, or we think that we not we think we know that we have a guy at quarterback here that can maximize what this offense schematically is supposed to be. We're not physically limited by a Tremella Jones or an Aaron Filo. If we could get one of those boxes checked, I think that would be enough for me to say we can figure it out at the other spots. If you just give me one answer on one of those spots, I think we have a chance. Because if you got a quarterback that is skilled enough and savvy enough, you can sort of scheme around the offensive line. If you have an offensive line and give your quarterback time, you have a chance to scheme around a quarterback who maybe isn't the most like, you know, gifted individual in the world. So a lot of hypotheticals here. I'm just saying the intel around Florida is consistent with what I believe the narrative is around Florida so far going into fall camp. Really talented, a lot of upside, really big questions. But if you can get one of those questions answered, who knows what the Gators, man, who knows? But that's the intel right now from Gators online from fall camp so far in year one under John Sumro. But we will obviously keep a, a very close pulse on what's going on out there in Gainesville. Florida State, they've been very quietly rolling through fall camp for a minute here. Why is that? Because they play week zero. Florida State actually had a scrimmage over the last couple of days. One of the guys to highlight, receiver Makai Dan, you remember him from last year. I mean had a, at a, a lot of college football fans remember this guy. Cause he had a big time touchdown on a reverse against Alabama. Super fast, kind of a track guy. He is cementing his role right now during fall camp as a true like number two receiver kind of guy. Next, Deuce Robinson. This is big Intel For a couple of reasons. Had a touchdown during the fall camp scrimmage, which is great news. But even more so the intel in terms of the fall camp, he's putting it together right now is what I get excited about. With a guy who has legitimate track speed, like we know Dansey has to be able to refine that and utilize that at the wide receiver position. As a guy who we can actually like draw up routes for and draw up concepts for. Not not just a hey, get the ball in his hands and we'll figure it out later kind of guy that gives an offensive coordinator a lot of flexibility. Also, having a guy that you can play opposite Deuce Robinson, the defenses can't just say, oh, we'll put one guy on him and we'll forget about it. Like I think you have to actually, with the, the speed that Dansey has, I think you probably have to at least have some help over the top. And so when that's the case, that's less resources that you can attribute to Deuce Robinson, which at that point in time, we know what he is. He's one of the best shivers in college football. Last year he'd be a first round pick. We know what Deuce Robinson is. But Deuce Robinson only gets to eat greedy if there's somebody else that the defense has to worry about and vice versa for, for a Micah for Malachi Danzy Rather. So excited to hear about that. Ashton Daniels is a guy that is going to start for Florida State. We know that much at quarterback. The verbiage around his scrimmage is interesting to me. Sounds like he looks good. There was no stats from the scrimmage, so we'll. We'll just kind of wait with bated breath until we actually spot the ball for the Knowles. The verbiage around his, his fall camp scrimmage was he had a lot of extended drives. Okay. If they were scoring drives, would you not say they were scoring drives? I digress from, from a one Mike Norvell. I think Ashton Daniels this year is kind of like a good road trip. He is going to be as good as you support him to be. If your hope is Ashton Daniels just says get on my back, we'll throw it to Juice, drop us in a couple of times. But I'm going to make us right at the quarterback position. I don't think that's really the way that you want to live if you're a Florida State fan. But if like a good road trip, we got some snacks, we got a good playlist, we Got a couple of planned stops here, we got a couple of sites we can see. We got a good route we're taking here. We got the GPS tuned up. We're leaving at a good time. If we have things around Ashton Daniels good enough offensive line play, two good receivers to roll with with Danzy and Deuce Robinson tight ends help us out schematically. Got a run game to go. If we got some things to support Ashton Daniels, we got a chance. Because I'll just, I'll say this. He went into football games last year for Auburn, an Auburn team that really could have packed it in if they didn't believe in Ashton Daniels. And I saw a team one play for Ashton Daniels and two, I saw Ashton Daniels elevate that Auburn team overall in terms of the kind of games he had them in. Like say what you want about Vanderbilt, Auburn was in that game with Vanderbilt. 10 win, 10 win. Vanderbilt, Auburn in a lot of people's minds probably would have, should have, could have won the Iron bowl over a band of a team that made the college football playoffs. So correlation is not causation from what Ashton Daniels was last year at Auburn to what he'll be at Florida State. I'm just saying I think his skill set, when supported correctly, has a chance to be better than most people think. And that's coming from someone here that is openly skeptical and not a fan of what's happened at Florida State the last couple of years. Tbd. It's fall camp, clean slate. Speaking of support, Usman Chroma is someone that I am super excited about for Florida State going the next year. Hand up. I'm not really all that excited about a lot for the Knowles next season. Usman Chroma is someone I'm excited about. He's exactly how I like my running backs, man, big body, runs behind his pads. Make sure that you feel him the next day when you have to tackle him a couple of times. 612 16. Florida State May not make a bowl game this year, but Usman Chroma is going to average 5 a pop and probably have double digit touchdowns. Like I think he's that good. I genuinely think he's, he's that good. He's one of the best I think running backs in the acc if not college football that, that does not get enough love. Mike Norvell has said he's been one of the stories of camp so far. One of the best camps for Florida State. It sounds like he is the table setter for this offense. I know Gus Malzon's not, you know, the coordinator anymore, but Mike Norvell from that Gus Malzon tree. Everything they want to do offensively will stem from being able to set the table running the football. So Usman Chroma, if we can set ourselves up with like second and six, third and three, we're going to have a chance as an offense to do some good things. Because we can call different kinds of plays for third and three and second and six. If we can't get a push up front and can't run the football well, we're sitting back there in third and seven, third and eight. Guess how many plays we have for third and seven and third and eight. You have your, your plays you carry in a game plan, but a lot of them, if not all of them, are pass plays. Maybe a draw mixed in. There you go. What I'm saying sets up more dynamic down in distance. Usman Chroma, someone I'm super high on. Ashland Baker on the defensive side starting to turn some heads, has taken over that rover spot from Earl Little Jr. Who transferred away to Ohio State. Just rangy guy that's had a good camp so far. 6, 3, 2, 17. I'm encouraged to hear that he's playing well for Tony White on defense. That's huge. That's kind of Tony White's MO is we're going to be able to be really dynamic on the back end of a defense. So to have a guy of his skill set and trending this direction with that frame, you love to hear that. The thing that I like to hear more though about Ashlin, Ashlin Barker is the, the intangibles with that guy. Like Mike Norvell said, yeah, he's playing well, but he highlighted his mentality, highlighted his leadership. Like that is so encouraging to hear about a Florida State football player right now. Not that they haven't had guys in the past that, that do it the right way and have their head on straight and have a good way about themselves. Deuce Robinson, obviously. Very much so. In that vein, this is Deuce Robinson's football team. But for me, when you look at Florida State, it's about the mindset. For me, that's like that's where it all starts. It's where the conversation starts. Talk about that team that won two football games in 2024. Florida State fans, I know it hurts to look back at that season. That wasn't a two win football team. It was a two win culture. It was a team that once they got beat by Boston College, packed it in said woe is us. Ho hum. We can't do this, can't do that. The playoff cooked us a year ago with leaving us out like it was just, it was the, it was the most piss poor culture I've ever seen that that was the problem. Florida State, it's not just about the roster. Do they have a roster to go win 10 games? I'm not ready to say that. But I would say if we can get the mentality and the mindset right and the culture right, we're going to give ourselves a much better chance. That's where it all starts. We'll figure out the football stuff and the schematic stuff later, but we get the mindset stuff right. Okay, we got a jumping off point. So still early on very encouraged to to hear that about Florida State at a, at a player level with Ashland Barker, but early intel still very much so. A a wait and see thing for us when it comes to what the Noles are going to be this year, but would love to see that brand return to where they're supposed to be when it comes to the rest of the college football world. Moving right along. One more school to touch on here on the fall camp. Intel side of things. Miami on the doorstep of a national championship a year ago, looking to go get more than just on the doorstep this upcoming year in 2026. Daria Mensah A big reason why only a couple practices in, but the intel out of Darian Mensah is he's been consistent and per Matt Schodel over at Kanesport and Kanesport is a phenomenal job. Cam Ward vibes is what he gives off from time to time. Nobody's really questioning if Darion Mesa can play the quarterback position. If you question that you're not watching college football. You didn't watch last season where my guy threw for darn near 4,000 yards at Duke on their way to winning the ACC. Daria Menska play quarterback? That's not the question. The question is can Darien Mensah be what Cam Ward was for Miami in 2024? Well, there was just a different aura about him that permeated throughout his football team. Like that's one of the things that you hear the most about Cam Ward during his time in Coral Gables. People talk about the big plays he made and the way that he was able to ad lib and be off script and you know, the different moments he had. But the thing that people speak about first with Cam Ward and the thing you're starting to hear more about Dari Mensa is, hey, he had the football team from the jump. He was the tone setter. He was the guy. And I continue to say this every single off season. There's a very big difference between being QB1 on the depth chart, taking first team reps, the starting quarterback, and being the guy QB1 is. That's just a position. Just your name on a, On a. On a chart. You're the guy. You are who he looked to on 4th and 1. Gotta have it. You are who he looked to in the fourth quarter. Need a touchdown to win this game. Darian Mensah trending towards being the guy as he was during spring practice. And the buzz is for him out of fall camp. That's what I get excited about. Receiver room. We know what it is. I mean, it's a. It's a list of names from Bar, Kate to Tony. A name that's made some noise two practices into fall camp and was buzzing during. During spring practice. Cam Vaughn is a transfer wide receiver from West Virginia. Students like 6 foot 2, but he is a big play waiting to happen. Like he is a burner. Averaged over 15 yards a catch the last two years out there in Morgantown, having a good fall camp so far. And it's funny when you, when you pair him with the rest of the room, like, there's just. There's. There's so many versatile skill sets. I was talking to a college D1 receiver coach last month, and he talked about how he likes his receiver room like a basketball team. I want different body types, different skill sets, different things we can do on the football field, y'. All. That's Miami to me. You got Malachi, Tony, who's do it all kind of guy, throw him the screen passes. You can get him out in space. You can have him work the zone. You have Cooper Barket, who can stretch the field and also work the zone really well. You got Josh Moore, big six foot four. You got Cam Vaughn, who can go. They got a lot of different ways to attack you. The way I say it, they have a lot of different genres of receiver, in my opinion. So that's always good because as a defense, man, that's a lot to account for. A lot of matchups you got to be able to have in your back pocket, in your own personnel, to be able to. To win those different sort of schematic approaches for Miami. So all that's to say, man, I think Miami's gonna have a lot of ways to attack different teams through the air. And Darian Mensah with that receiver group with what you hear so far from spring practice to fall camp paired with what we already know about the Canes, probably another good year for for Miami and another reason why I think they're going to score darn near 40 a game here in 2026. Defensively still very early on so not a lot to speak to when it comes to the trench play but man the story that we've heard the most of out of cane sport thus far through fall camp is hey this DB room might be special, might be like real deal one of the best DB units they've had there at Miami in in a minute which is saying something when you know what that place has been reason why these defensive backs through two days have won these practices. Definitely one day two of practice. Permat Shodel these wide receivers are dogs like I just spoke to how good this receiver room Is and these DBs are forcing the issue so much to where again the thought is they've won the practices so far and we haven't put the pads on yet. Like when you don't have the pads on offense is supposed to win when we're just running out there in helmets and shorts and T shirts like we should be winning practices. Not the case. Omar Thornton, a name you hear a lot about during spring ball. They referred to him as kind of like that tone setter physically for the back end of that defense. Almost feels like they speak about him in a throwback kind of way to what elite Miami safeties have been just in terms of overall physicality. Cannot wait to watch him mix it up. O.J. frederick had a couple of picks so far. Shannon Dawson's the OC for Miami, which Kane fans already know but if you don't now you do. He's a guy that usually during practice pretty laid back, a little more mild mannered, not gonna get too worked up. Reported out of Kane sport is during one on ones he was not happy with the urgency from his unit which again goes to show the DBs are mixing it up. Winning some practices, winning some reps and it's a good sign if you're a Hurricane fan because you already know what that receiver room is. I don't think anybody in the right mind questions what that receiving core is going to be. So to hear the DBs are mixing it up like that great intel so far out of 305 offensive line going to be something we watch. It's a trust but verify situation for me. I've said a couple of times if Crystal Ball and Mirabal are the directors, Are the directors to the movie. The actors, I don't really care quite as much to double check on. Okay. I think the movie's going to be pretty good. Ben Congdon is a true freshman offensive lineman who has gotten some really strong reviews so far during fall camp. Six foot eight, 330 pounds, four star guy. Sounds like they're elevating him a little bit in terms of the group he's working with during fall camp. So far, they have him competing with Jackson Cantwell. And I think if you're a little bit more pessimistic or trying to guard your heart as a fan, you're saying, wait, it's J.D. hang on a second. Jackson Cantwell, five star. The next big thing at Miami. Jackson Campbell. He's. He's competing with a four star guy. Yeah, that's how college football works. When you show up, they don't care what star you are. You got to spot the ball, put on your helmet, your shoulder pads, tape up the wrists, and we got to go at it, brother. So that's not saying anything less of Jackson Cantwell and not saying anything more of Ben Congdon. It's just saying that's probably how crystal ball rolls. Let me rephrase that. That is how crystal ball rules. They're going to let their best players compete. Doesn't matter what position you are, how old you are going to let you go at it. And the best player will come out of that battle and end up being the guy that gets the most playing time. So again, two practices in, we'll see what happens when we spot the ball and start moving it and scrimmages. But do not take that at any way a dig as to what Jackson Campbell has done through so far through fall camp. If anything, take it as a, hey, Ben Congdon is making that position group more competitive as a true freshman, which you love to hear. So we zoom out a little bit on the intel so far. We'll have more intel here as we go on throughout fall camp for all these teams but Miami as well. I don't really have a ton that I need to learn about this roster, which sounds funny to say, but, like, there's not a lot I'm going to hear during fall camp shy of Gary furman saying, hey, J.D. the offensive line is real deal bad. Hey, J.D. the receiver room is actually not at all. We thought it was. They're terrible. Like, shy of some just like wildly unforeseen intel. We get around Miami. I don't have a lot that I feel the need to double check on with this roster at a macro level. What I want to hear about out of Miami is what's the temperature of those practices like when it comes to competitive energy because Miami the roster is good enough. The roster I think is even better than it was a year ago. Which is saying something after having three first round picks in the trenches. Leave your leave your football team. Like I think overall offense should be better. Defense should be in the ballpark of where they were. Miami has a chance to go win the whole thing. This year we got Miami absolutely winning the ACC and in the playoff and making a run of this thing. Like there there is no reason to think Miami can't go win the whole thing. So with that being said when you just played for the whole thing a year ago, there is the temptation for complacency to creep in for oh we we made it to the Natty last year. We can kind of take it a little bit easier during fall camp this year. Like that is what kills you. That is what does away with your if you want to go ahead and approach practice like that, you've already lost. You've already lost whatever edge you were supposed to have by playing for Natty last year. Last year doesn't matter. And so the more I hear about hey these DBs are bringing it hey the energy from Shannon Dawson that standard is not going anywhere. There there is real juice that's that's being had out there in Green Tree on the practice field. That's what I like to hear because I don't worry about the roster. I want not wonder. I want to hear more and get reassured. Reassured that this football team and the juice they're bringing to the table is going to be that of the national championship standard that Miami is going to need to have to get back to where they were a year ago. Okay so also what they need to have here to get back to the Natty got to make sure that we are well nourished. Got to make sure the nutrition not taking a step back. The best way to do that for all of us on this side of things is with Huel. Okay I told you. Black Edition ready to drink. Got the Black Edition powder here courtesy of Huel. Tastes great. 27 vitamins and minerals, 40 grams of protein. Complete meal on the go. I say this a lot but I'll tell you again if you want to help the show hear me clearly, this is a great way to do so. Huell.com backslash hardcount15 use code hardcount15 online new customers only. Save yourself save yourself some money. 15% off when you use our code hardcount15@huell.com tastes great. Gonna need it all year long. I'm telling you right now we cannot go through the season without the proper caloric intake. All right. We can't be getting here to November or towards rivalry weekend and say oh man, a little bit tired, a little bit worn down. Long season excuses are for losers and Huell gives you zero excuse to not have all your nutrition to to make sure you don't miss a meal with their wonderful product. Again Black Edition powder you can mix into your your smoothie or your milk or your water, whatever you want to do or or just grab the the Black edition ready to drink and make sure you get what you need on the go with Huel. Complete meal on the go. So thanks to you for partnering and supporting the show. Good stuff so far out of Coral Gables, man. A lot of exciting times out there when it comes to fall camp on and popping across the country. So I love fall camp. You love fall camp. Why? Because it means college football games are about to be played. And I mean you can hear to my voice listen on podcast or if you're watching on you, you can hear the sped up heart rate. You can hear me getting jacked up man. Because they're spot the ball here in week zero in Dublin, Ireland, tcu, North Carolina, get it after it and we'll have ourselves a season. With that being said, at times now we have to slow ourselves down because this is a in large part it's become a reaction business and I appreciate that because it allows us to have a voice and have a great conversation with you and have a back and forth. The danger of that is there is such a thing as overreaction. We see it all the time, especially early on in the season. A couple of examples. Remember week one, I believe this was 2024. USC beats LSU. Miller Moss goes off. What was the overreaction? USC is a playoff team. They weren't Miller Moss is going to win the Heisman. He didn't. USC is once again tough. They weren't made strides. They weren't dunk on usc. But it's kind of the fact of the matter. Go back to last year. Oregon beats Penn State. Penn State fights back in that game they were number three in the country. Fell short in a white out. Hey, Oregon's gonna win the national champion. Hey Penn State, man. No, they lost that game but they're they're gonna be frisky. Oregon's pretty good. Or Penn State's gonna find a way now to make a run of this thing. James Franklin was fired like two, three weeks later. We gotta be careful not to overreact based on things that we see or feel early on in the season. So a couple of games want to break down here for us when it comes to things we should not overreact to. Let's start week two. Ohio State goes to Texas. This is going to be awesome. Even just saying, though, saying those words, Ohio State at Texas gets me going a little bit, man. I don't apologize for it. Do not overreact to whoever loses this game. Straight up, I've gone on record, and I will say this again. I do not believe a 9 and 3 team makes the College Football Playoff. I do not believe that. Too many teams left out last year with two losses. I mean, shoot, Notre Dame left out with two losses. BYU left out with one loss in the regular season. With that being said, if there was going to be a team that makes the College football playoff at 9 and 3, it would be Ohio State or Texas, the loser of this game. Now, to keep it a buck, I don't have either of these teams losing more than two games this season. So goes to say, both teams, I think, will be. Will be playoff rosters. But look at what these teams have after this game. Texas plays Oklahoma, Ole Miss at LSU at A and M. If you lose in the right way, in the right combination of some of those games and win the other correct ones, a 9 and 3 Texas isn't impossible to make the College Football Playoff. So if they. They lose to Ohio State, the. The overreaction will be, well, Sark just can't beat Ryan Day. Well, Texas can't beat Ohio State. That's three in a row now for Ryan Day over Sark. What's up with Sark? Woo. Saw. Deep breath in, deep breath out. A lot of ball to be played this week. Two, brother. Same thing for Ohio State, man. Ryan Day as he lost his fastball. Golly. A guy that he's beat twice in a row just got one over on him. What's going on? Is Ohio State on the decline? No, it's week two with eight new starters on defense and you still play usc, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan. Telling me the right combo of wins and a couple of losses by one score to some of those teams, you're leaving Ohio State out of the College Football Playoff. Now, the caveat is you probably do need some help to get in as 9 to 3 football team. But it's not, it's not. The loser of this game is just gone forever. That's not, not something we should be saying after this game. All right. Do not overreact. If Ohio State's defense is maybe a bit of a work in progress. Wonder why, because it probably is a work in progress. Can I tell you something? It was a work in progress last year when they opened up the season, week one against Texas JD they only allowed seven points. It was a work in progress. It was a work in progress because it was freaking week one. It was a first year coordinator Matt Patricia and Columbus and they had eight new starters that just, it's, it's a work in progress. Always the first couple weeks of the season, man. Now that work in progress ended up being a pretty nice work in progress and got a great result early on. That talent so freaking elite. But just understand if, if Ohio State allows a couple of uncharacteristic explosives or maybe they, they let up more points than you're comfortable with. Maybe God forbid they let up 21 points, let up 14 points, which would be two touchdowns and three touchdowns. Two scores more than a year ago. It's okay. I have a pretty good feeling that Matt Patricia and the talent they recruit and added via the portal at Ohio State and is going to be good enough to get Ohio State to play for or at least in the conversation of playing for whatever they expect to play for every single year. Right. Understand too, this game, this year is different than last year because yes, you're a place at new starters like it did a year ago. Fully true. But you're replacing the wi fi of your defense is what I want to make sure we really hone in on here. A year ago, yeah, you had new starters across the board here at different spots. But Caleb Downs, he was back. Sonny Styles, he was back. Two leadership figures and two guys that could get you lined up. Two guys that were very familiar with what the live bullets were within the context of a college football game. Also, that game was at the crib. This one's going to be on the road. So if it takes a second to install some new WI fi to the defense, if maybe Ohio State looks like they're finding their sea legs just a little bit, do not overreact. Don't run to the Twitter machine and type out, Ohio State's defense is fallen. Don't. Don't say that. Just let it marinate a little bit. On top of all of that, we got to make sure. Sark gets some credit here in this conversation as well. Like say what you want about the success Ohio State's had the last couple of outings against the Longhorns. Steve Sarcasian is still the best offensive mind in the business, arguably still calling plays. Gets paid a lot to do. So. So don't just dismiss whatever Ohio State looks like in week two. If they're not lighting the world on fire like they were a year ago right off the bat, it's a work in progress. What they are in week two is going to be very different than what they are in week 10. Promise you that. Do not overreact in the same way. If the new pieces for Texas aren't right away, stuff in the stat sheet like Cam Coleman is probably the top of this paragraph when talking about new pieces at Texas. He is supposed to be in theory here, the go to weapon receiver that Arch Manning has never had since becoming the guy at Texas. And I think that's fair to say, I think his skill set is unlike what they had last year. There's a big reason why they brought him to Austin at a pretty penny. But if he doesn't go off for a buck 50 in the first game against Ohio State, that's okay. It's all right. Because you know what? If I'm at Patricia, I'm putting my game plan together. Guess what? My first order of business probably is after stopping the run. Let's make sure number eight doesn't beat us. Let's make sure we we bracket eight over the course of this game. Make sure we don't leave us in single coverage against number eight, please. Thank you. Okay, that's great. I would imagine he's probably pretty high on the priority list in terms of what Ohio State is trying to take away. So if you don't see him go do crazy numbers in his first ever P4 game as a Longhorn. I don't think that's anything to be too worked up about. Okay, the run game in the same way, the expectations for them are extremely high. That running back room needs to be productive. But if we don't have a 100 yard back in this game, whether it's Relik Brown or Hollywood Smothers, doesn't mean they missed in the portal, doesn't mean Texas isn't going to be balanced. Doesn't mean that they're running back what last year was as an offense in terms of not being able to run the football. They're better at the running back position. Ohio State, while they replaced a lot on that defense. It's also still a really good defensive line unit. Kenyatta Jackson, I think, is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the country. Bo Atkinson's an absolute dog from North Carolina a couple years ago, transferred in. He's going to be a problem. Like Edric Houston, Ohio State recruits really elite defensive linemen. It's probably going to be one of the best D lines they play all year and they're playing SEC schedule. All right? So don't overreact if. If they don't absolutely go off. Also worth noting, in the last couple of games that these two teams have played semifinals and in the first week of the 2025 season, the winning team offensively has scored 14 points and 21 points, saying, JD Ohio State scored 28. They scored on a strip sack from Jack Sawyer. That was the extra touchdown that Ohio State had. Bottom line, it's not going to take you scoring 35 points more than likely to go win this football game. So if it's less than 30 again, if your taxes don't freak out, don't freak out and say Sartre needs to give up play calling. Like, it's a lot of transfers, a lot of new pieces. Talented unit on the other side, new but talented. Really good D coordinator, Matt Patricia. Like, let's not freak out if Texas doesn't light the scoreboard on fire in that second game of the season in Austin. Now, this is what I don't want to overreact to. Here's what we can properly react to. Like, here's things that I'm not excusing in this game. Both quarterbacks handling the freaking moment, dude. Arch Manning, first game ever as the guy at Texas. Not first start ever, but first game ever as the guy truly came in this game. Big Noon, week one last year. Everyone's watching, dude. That moment was too big for him and we saw it. Say it however else you want to say. If you want to put a different label on it. Of, oh, he got too jittery. Game was fast. Whatever. He was overwhelmed out there and we saw he's out here skipping curl routes. It was too big for him. Now fast forward the tape. Arch turns it on. Post Mississippi State. Texas looks like a different team. He looks more confident. All well and good. We cannot have that same kind of start to the season, Arch. We can't have it. And I'm saying that to Arch. Arch already knows that. I promise you, he knows that. We said as much with him at SC media days. He said, I gotta let the game come to me. I gotta. He didn't say it this way, but he essentially was paraphrasing, I gotta chill out a little bit here. Be a little bit more chill in that sense. All right, so if, if Arch walks out there and we see a rerun of what last year was, he looks sped up, he's seeing ghosts, he's wound up, he's overwhelmed. I'm not gonna say, well, it's weak one or, well, it's week two. And we're not saying that. We're saying you're a year two starting quarterback, your fourth year in the system. You're the adult in the room for all these new pieces. We got to act like it. We got to be the steady hand now. Rookie year more or less is over. Now as a starter, we got to be. We got to be the cool hand here. Same thing for Julian saying, quite frankly, like, I know he's played in a lot of big spots now you talk about the Big Ten title game. Playing in the Ohio State Michigan rivalry is huge. Playing a college football playoff game against Miami, he's been exposed to the big moments now. He was cool in this game a year ago. At the same time, there wasn't really a ton asked of Julian saying in this spot, and understandably so, with it being his first ever start as a Buckeye, I need him to be that cool hand in the huddle as well. Because what do we say all off season long, hey, Indiana game, Miami game, when they played elite pass rushes, Julian saying that that offensive line did not handle it well. The shot clock was slow, the O line got beat and they just kind of got their lunch eaten. Bad luck. Well, you've had all offseason now, in theory here, you would think that is priority number one for us. If we're Julian saying to be able to feel the rush differently, to be able to have that shot clock sped up. And so if we're having more of the same, if it's like the third rerun of that movie against Indiana where we're getting sacked four or five times in elite pass rush, hypothetically here, Colin Simmons, Rasheen Biles, coach, Boomwell mushroom, if it's that all over again, that's not going to be cool. That is going to be very, very unchill, to put it simply. All right, that's what we will not be excusing if Julian saying once again looks like he is overwhelmed post snap in the moment against that Texas pass rush man. Okay, now if you are going to this game or if you're watching this game from the couch. Roback's getting us all kitted here via the hard count. Okay? If you want to help the show, hear me clearly. Code JD20, 20 off for. For new customers. They're taking care of us, man. They take care of all y'. All. Taking care of us, man. 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If Ole Miss wins, Twitter's on fire. Lane Kiffin should never have left. Lane Kiffin, this, that, and the other. How do you like us now? Absolutely. Getting back at your ex kind of vibe and more power to Ole Miss for LSU if they win that game. Hey, that's why Lane Kiffin left. Hey, Lane Kiffin. Y' all were holding it back at Ole Miss. Those will be the vibes on Twitter. So overreactions and extreme sides both way. Do not overreact to this game, though, for a couple of reasons we'll talk about in a second here. Before we do, though, make sure you are subscribed to the On3 YouTube channel. We're gonna preview this game. We're gonna pick this game in real time. We're gonna react to this game. If you just love college football or you want more content around just this game, make sure you subscribe. We appreciate y' all in advance for that. Ole Miss fans. And I got a good back and forth going on right now over on the Ole Miss on three message board, and I love every single part of it. I'm going to bat for y' all here. Going to bat. You're not going to like the way that I go to bat. But I'm gonna just. I'm gonna go to bat for you here. Do not overreact, college football world. If Trinidad Shambliss rolls out there in week three against LSU and looks a little human, I'm not predicting it. Let me say it again. I am not predicting this happens right now with Trinidad Shambliss. We all good on that. Cool. Trinidad Shambless last year was playing so free, and he played with just a sense of joy, and he was. I mean, it was. It was incredible. To watch him just work his craft and treat every single Saturday like a blatant canvas. Sounds sort of poetic, but that was what it was like watching Trinidad Shambles play last year. It was absolutely electrifying. Dude, he had a ton of big stages he played on it. Looked awesome against Georgia. Looked awesome against Miami. That dude carried Ole Miss to darn near a national championship berth. All right, so you're saying, J.D. why would he look human when he already played in bigger stages than this? He's played in bigger stages than this. But emotionally, if that is part of the Trinidad magic, emotionally, this should be the heaviest game he's played in. Former team. Former or not former team, but former staff rather. In terms of Charlie Weiss, Elaine Kiffin. I'm sure Trinidad Shambliss could have gone to LSU should he have wanted to. But instead, he stays in that. He's staying at Ole Miss. Like there is. There's real, real energy for the LSU side of things. Obviously, if you're a one Trinidad Shambliss at the same time now, in terms of the heaviness, there's, like, real heavy pressure for Ole Miss right now. Like last year, Trinidad Champ was playing with house money. Not even supposed to start last year. Austin Simmons. What is that? SEC media days. Last year for Ole Miss going to be your starting quarterback. No doubt about a handpicked guy. Lefty had a cinematic drive against Georgia when Jackson Dart went down. He's the future of Ole Miss football. Simmons goes down, Chambliss goes in. Never gives that job back. Understandably so. Trinidad Chambliss went to Ole Miss. I would have to imagine assuming he was never going to be the guy at Ole Miss, which isn't knocking Trinidad Chambas. I'm just saying last year was such a house money kind of year. So I say all that to say this year at me, Today's Trinidad Chambers is there and saying, hey, we want to win national championship. Like, we want to go hang that banner. That's what this year is about for us. That is very different pressure and spotlight and expectations emotionally on a young man versus what you were a year ago when the dude was originally going to go to Temple and play quarterback and then decides on Ole Miss to go be a run game guy, a backup guy, so on and so forth. On top of that, Trinidad Chambliss is playing against the one to two human beings in the entire world that know the most about Trinidad Chambliss's game. Charlie Weiss, Lane Kiffin, how many meetings they sat in with that guy, how many practices they went through with number six last year, how much time they spent to get like, they know Trinidad Chambers, his strengths as well as some of the things that maybe could be blind spots for A one Trinidad Shambless. So I say all that to say if Trinidad Chambers walks out there and with the staff that he was just with on the opposing sideline, maybe having a small jump on what could be a, a stumbling block for a 1 Trinidad shambles. Don't, don't say, oh, he was overhyped. I wasn't that good. Last year was all fugazi. It's not, it's not all that. It's not all that. Maybe the stage is just absolutely huge and the pressure is a lot and it's a different circumstance in terms of walking into that game with how you enter that game. And the opposing staff does some things schematically that they know could give you some problems. And we see Trinidad look a little bit human, not saying he sucks, not saying he's bad, just maybe he looks a little bit pedestrian against a coach who knows him, you would like to think better than any other coach he's worked with over the course of his collegiate career, Right? So don't overreact to that in the same way, don't overreact if the pieces for LSU via the transfer portal don't take a second to sort of gel, especially on offense. The thing that I just said about Trinidad Chambers and Lane Kiffin and how Lane knows Trinidad and his game and all that, you could say the same exact thing about Pete Golding and how he knows Charlie Weissen, Lane Kiffin, like how many meetings they sat in together and game planned. Like, I promise you, golden knows the weak parts of that, that offense, Goldie knows where to attack. So don't be shocked now if the LSU offense that's supposed to be this absolute rocket ship, don't be surprised if in week three, on the road, super intense environment, a bunch of transfers maybe take a second to find their own sea legs, their own footing I mean, heck, Sam Levitt's probably the biggest part of this. Don't be surprised if Sam Levitt, who missed a good chunk of spring practice, doesn't look like he's in mid season form in week three in a new offense in a place he missed a lot of spring ball. And I just mentioned a second ago, we saw Carson Beck kind of take a second. They get acclimated. Now Sam Levitt I believe did more than Carson Beck during spring ball. But the point stands. We saw Carson Beck right around like late October into, you know, the second part of November. Really look like he was finally comfortable in that offense. Why? Because by my math, he had finally made up for all the practices he had missed during spring ball. Is that 100% the case? I don't know, but the, the math relatively checks out there. Don't be surprised if Sam Levitt takes a second to totally get dialed in on top of all this. Sounds like I'm building an excuse for LSU's offense. I promise you I'm not on top of all this here. Lsu, schematically, a lot of what Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weiss do is based on timing, based on feel, based on chemistry. Like that RPO system is a lot of, hey, I know that this backer is cheating up just enough by how much we've worked this rep together and how that receiver runs his route to where I can fit it in the window when he's right out of his brain, like I know exactly where he's going to be. I can feel it, not thinking it. I'm not counting my steps. I'm not like aiming. I am just playing football. That's the kind of brand of ball that LSU is going to have. If we're going off of Lankiffens previous offenses, well, that takes some time to build that chemistry. So you don't question the personnel, but it might take some time for that chemistry to, to totally get dialed in. New system. Sam Levitt, big time spot. I won't be shocked if they're not lighting up scoreboards the first three weeks of the season. Okay, I hesitate to even say this because I know it's going to get a lot of kickback, but just hear me clearly, don't overreact. If Lane Kiffin loses this game, I know it's going to happen. I get it. Not going to bat for Lane. Just don't overreact if he loses this game because the overaction will be. Should have never left Ole Miss. See what you left, they just beat you you just left that place that you just got beat by at your old house. Boy, you look stupid for going to LSU right now, huh? That's the overreaction. What that overreaction doesn't account for is. Is one. Who do you think put that house together in the first place? I know there's a lot of different roster pieces that are there right now that were not there a year ago. Ole Miss still went to the Portal. I get that. Under Pete Golding, Kiwan Lacy. Why is he there? Lane Kiffin got it. Trinidad Shambles. Why is he there? Lane Kiffin got it. Lane Kiffin didn't take the LSU job to be better than ole miss in 2026. He took the LSU job because of what the potential of that place is. Les Miles, Natty Edward Natty. I would imagine Lane Kiffin thinks he's a better head coach than both those individuals. Just guessing that, plus the support and the brand power of what that place is. He took it for the Runway, not for what it was going to be the next season. Now, if you're an LSU fan, you're hoping and praying you can win that game. So you can talk crazy on Twitter, as is Ole Miss, I'm sure. But understand, like, this game is not a Lane Kiffin made the right move or the wrong move kind of moment. It'll be dressed up that way. People will talk about it that way. They're wrong. LSU was a long term play for Lane Kiffin. It was not a man. I just. I wish we could beat ole miss in 2026. That's not what it's about. It's not what it's about. Okay, so what I won't excuse, what we should all react to properly here is the physicality of both sides. And both sides know this Ole Miss, whether you want to admit it or not, whatever you got in the portal, this, that and the other. I understand Echols is great. Franklin's great. I hear you. Last year you allowed four and a half yards of carry. That's not good enough to go international championship. And me and Ole Miss have gone back and forth on the boards. We're going to talk about that at a later date in terms of maybe a potential friendly, friendly stake that could be in the game for both of us. That's not, not this game specifically, but for Ole Miss and their season. We'll talk about it later. Don't worry about it. Make sure you subscribe. We'll talk about it later. You got to be better stopping the run for lsu. I think you got to be better running the football and stopping the run. So a better way to package this is the physicality of both teams while it's still early in the season and you can improve schematically and you can maybe change up your, your lineup and guys that you like, like, I don't think teams become magically more physical from week three to week nine. Like, this is the jumping off point. You only usually get worse after week three because you get beat up, you get dinged up, you get like, I need to see both sides have a certain degree of physicality that is aligned with their expectations for their football program. Like if Ole Miss can't stop the run, if LSU can't run the football or they can't stop the run, it's like, what are we even talking about here? Lsu, you want to make the playoff. This, that and the other. Well, if you can't stop the runner on the football, guess what? You're not doing playing in the month of January. I promise you that, like this is going to be a really good just litmus test. Really good jumping off point for where these teams are. I do not need to see them be finished products. I do not need to see national championship level chops in the trenches from both sides from the jump. But I do need to see a jumping off point that says, okay, everything you want to accomplish with how you protect your quarterback, how you run the ball, how you stop the run, those things that just aren't going to get magically better during Thanksgiving weekend. I need to see the jumping off point there. That checks the box. Because if we see LSU give up 200 yards, like it's going to be a whole lot of head shaking and oh boy, in for a long season. The same thing for, for Ole Miss. If we give them averaging like six yards of carry allowed and Sam Levitt has a day, Harlan Berry has like, it's not going to be a. Okay, yeah, they could go in the sec. It's not that conversation. Those are non negotiables. Non negotiables. Indiana and Miami both played for national championship last year as two of the top 10 defensive line units in the country. It's not a coincidence. Not a coincidence. All right, so we will properly react to that part of this equation. But don't overreact. Trinidad looks human. Don't overreact. If the offensive unit put together with portal pieces that are going to be good and they're very talented, don't be surprised if it takes a second. And Lane Kiffin, it'll people will try to dress it up as a definition of he should have or should not have left Ole Miss based on the outcome of that game. Don't listen to him. Nonsense. All right. Golly, darn near an hour. Intel, overreaction, awareness, putting that out there into the world. We appreciate y' all making this show what it is, man. We appreciate you sincerely being a college football fan that has been tuned in all year long, making this show what it is. Our time is now. Our time is now. There's no more time for us to be missing shows both on our end and your end. No time for us to be talking anything besides the actual cleats on the grass. No more injunctions, no more court. Like we're talking college football, man. God bless y' all for it, man. And God bless the sport of college football. Appreciate y'. All. Love y' all for Cato on the ones and the twos. Myself, Judy Paquel. Appreciate y'. All. Love y' all gonna keep this party rolling. We will see y' all next time, Sam.