← The Hard Count with J.D. PicKell
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The hard count presented by Polymarket all college football season long, baby. There's an old expression in this space, the house always wins. Not when you use Polymarket. There is no house edge. This is fans trading with fans. This is college football sickos trading with college football sickos. Two sided market when you sign up using the Polymarket app code on three. Tell you what man, $10 deposited polymarket gives you 20 bucks just for signing up using code on three. At the markets they have, man, they got a ton of them. From national champions to player props to head to head games to other stuff like coach firings. Polymarket is your spot all college football season long. Also really cool, Polymarket. The app's got a little live chat feature. So the Polymarket live chat, man, we can talk smack. We can work together towards the greater good of all college football season. So again, lock in using code on 3. The Polymarket app going to be an absolute blast. All college football season long trading not available in all jurisdictions. Check local regulations before trading restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. Now let's get to the show. Welcome into the hard count. It is a Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. Last one on the face of the planet. We did it, y'. All. We did it. We beat the offseason. August is here. Football is in the air. Fall camp around the country is starting this week. I mean I'm, I didn't plan on getting emotional before we started this show, but I tell you, if we spent more time talking about how football is back and college football is about to start this month, I might get there. Not gonna lie to you, I might get there. This show, the Hard count presented all college football season by the good folks over at Polymarket. Polymarket, not a sports book. A two sided trading market. College football fans trading with college football fans. If you want to support the show, hear me clearly. Download the Polymarket app. Sign up using code on three and when you deposit 10 bucks, Polymarket says, hey, thanks for using that code. Thanks for supporting the show. Here's 20 bucks for you to get started. Great stuff with Polymarket. Super excited to be partnering with them as always. Fuel riding shotgun that don't change 40 grams of protein on your head top. We put out our predictions on our Thursday show and and we make no apologies for it. Got a lot of feedback as is the nature of the beast. We say something, you either agree, you disagree. And so I put out the call on my socials, Instagram, Twitter @jd pacal. I said hey, listen, I told you what I think. You tell me what you think about what we think. Here's what we think is going to happen. You go ahead and tell me where I'm wrong. So where was I wrong? We'll, we'll go through some of the most, most general consensus feedback we got from, from last week's show. Let's start there with our national title pick. I said, hey, I think the Oregon Ducks are going to break all the curses. Dan Lanning is going to erase all the, all the playoff misfortune and mishaps and, quite frankly, missteps that he's had the last two years. And Oregon, when the confetti falls in Las Vegas, they're atop the college football world saying, how do you like me now? And you responded and said, JD Oregon, the Ducks winning the big game, winning the biggest game, that's going to happen. I mean, just in, in our lifetime as college football fans, we've seen Oregon play for not one, but two national championships and lose both of them. One coming out the hands of Ezekiel Elliott and Cardell Jones, the other two at the hands of Cam Newton and Michael Dyer. Was he down? Was he not down? The world may never know, but Auburn won the national championship over the Ducks. Here is, here's where I fall on the feedback we've gotten. Because the feedback we get if you say Oregon's not win the national championship, it sounds something like this. Oregon, they're going to get over the hump, win the national championship. Well, J.D. they haven't. J.D. it's Oregon. They get to the big game and they fall flat. And, like, I understand where that comes from, but my thing is that Take has the worst winning record or winning percentage, rather, in the history of college football. Nope, it's got the lowest winning percentage. Because the thing is, like, when you say that, it's a powerful statement because history is on your side. Fact is on your side in the sense that previously, yes, they have not won the national championship, but at the same time, there's zero logic to the sense of like, well, yeah, but what does that have to do with this upcoming season? Like, Dan Lanny's been a coach all of, like, four seasons now, going to his fifth season as the head coach of the Ducks. Like, what does that have to do with writing the script of 2026? And the thing, too, the reason why I say has the lowest winning percentage in the history of sports is because whenever you say that, there's a point in time where either that continues to be true or Someone disproves that and then it totally gets dismissed that, oh, we say that about that certain coach, team or player, like, they said he can't win the big one about Kirby Smart. Two national titles later, nobody says that. They said it about Ryan Day 1, his national championship, his sixth season as a head coach in 2024 over Notre Dame. They said it about Jim Harbaugh. They got it in 23. I, I have a really hard time getting on board with the idea of you haven't done it, so therefore you will never do it. I think everyone that looks at Oregon over the course of the last couple of years, they've continued to trend in a positive direction. They've continued to advance further in the college football play. They've continued to build that roster bigger and better. Like when you talk about Dan Lanning not being able to win the big game, yes, he hasn't won a national championship, and yes, the playoff losses are straight up embarrassing. Mouth, however you want to phrase it, they've been as bad as bad can be getting blown out in the playoff. There is absolutely no excuse to it. With that being said, when we talk about Dan Lanning not being able to win the quote, unquote, big game, I think the, the phrase big game gets a little bit of. It's too generalized sometimes. Or maybe, maybe the better way to say it is like you just look at him not winning the big game as the big games he's lost. Like Big Ten championship. Last I checked, that was a really big game and he won that one over Penn State. The game against Ohio State when they came to Austin in 2024, that was a huge game. Believe College game day was there. Massive spot. Oregon won that one. So he hasn't won the biggest game. And he's had some really embarrassing moments where Morgan has and Dale Anning has in the College Football Playoff. But to say he can't win a big game, I just, I don't really subscribe to that logic. Beat JMU and Texas Tech last year in the College Football Playoff. Those aren't like the biggest games, but those games matter. If he had lost to Texas Tech in the second round of the College Football Playoff, that narrative would have persisted and continued and said, I'll look at Dan landing Ken advanced. Like there would have been that. That narrative that continues. Right? So hasn't won the biggest game, yes, but can't win the big game in the BCS era like Oregon. Now, granted, we're not in the BCS era, but just to walk this through in terms of how we talk about coaches in the BCS era, when Oregon beat Ohio State, that was their big win in 2024. And they would have gone and played for national championship in 2024 because they were one of the, I think they were the top seat in the College Football Playoff, actually sitting there undefeated, Big Ten champs. Like they would have played for national championship. And so there wouldn't be this, oh, run it back, make it, take it, play him in the College Football Playoff, get embarrassed from the Rose Bowl. So it doesn't make anything better as to what Dan Lanning hasn't done. But I just think we have to maybe take a little bit more stock as to Dan Lanning's resume as a head coach at Oregon. The other take you here outside of Dan lanning is, well, J.D. it's Oregon. They never win the big game. They haven't done this, they haven't done that. And my thing is like a logo in a uniform have zero power or zero say on what happens in the world of sports ever. Like, people were pounding the table last year when we said A and M is going to make the playoff. JD Texas 8 and 4, that place is your snake bit. And they never do this, never do that. Until they did. Until they won 11 games, made the playoff, didn't win a national championship. But that wasn't the bar you were measuring Texas A and M by last year, was it? It was. They're not going to win more than eight games. They're not going to be a playoff team. And then they were. Turns out uniform doesn't have any say on what you do or don't do over the course of an entire season. You know who else hadn't done anything prior to two years ago? Indiana. Depending on how you evaluate the historical data, Indiana was the losingest college football program of all time. We're dunking on Oregon for not winning the national championship. The last couple of years, Indiana hadn't won anything at all. And Signetti shows up there and in two years they win the national championship. So it turns out the Indiana uniform, that place Bloomington, wasn't cursed, wasn't snake bitten. It just took a little bit. Took hiring the right guy. Didn't take that long at all, actually. So again, like place logo, all that has nothing to do with anything at all. So I won't hear the Oregon uniform logo. Like, that's, that's nonsensical. Absolutely nonsensical. Okay, now everyone has questions at this point. It's August. Haven't played a down A ball. Yet we have uncertainty across the board for every single team. The reason why I like Oregon, it's what it is. Picking one at 130 plus teams to win it all. The reason why I like Oregon is, I think relative to their questions, I feel best about their answers. Because the biggest question I have is twofold with Oregon. One, what's the offensive line going to be like? I think the floor is pretty high, but you got to have borderline, I think elite trench play on both sides of the ball. To win the national championship, Oregon, they have to replace three or five starters. I've said it before, I trust Alik Terry, the offensive line coach, to get it done. I think a league Terry is one of the best in the business. 3 Joe Moore Award finalist offensive lines each of the last three years. That's really freaking good. Okay, so there's that part of it. The other question is, well, J.D. you replace two coordinators 100% a question, 100% something that makes you feel a little bit uncomfortable if you were riding with the Ducks. But I like the clues around these coordinators. Okay, there's two clues here for me. One, internal promotions. Dan Lanning knows what it is at Oregon. He knows it's not like, oh, go in the Big Ten, make the playoff, and we're all cool. It's all, it's all, you know, good vibes. Like, no, we, we've done that now. We've made the play. I've gotten bearish twice. We have to go win the national championship. And so Dan Laning, with that being the framework he's operating under as the head coach at Oregon, decided, you know what? Both these guys, I'm familiar with both these guys have been on my staff. I am promoting them to call their respective sides of the football. With that pressure, with that understanding, with all that has to happen here at Oregon, long term, I feel good enough about both these guys to hand them the keys to get us to where we ultimately want to go. I trust that. You got me. You gotta bet on something, gotta trust something. Right? I trust that. Okay. Other thing that I feel some peace about with picking Oregon to win the national championship, relative to the question mark around their coordinators. It's not a perfect science, but like it's not unheard of for a first year coordinator to have success to the degree of playing for and or winning a national championship. Now, the caveat there is Oregon has not one, but two new coordinators. So I understand the uneasiness there, but I said it when we picked him to win the national championship. Like Corey Heatherman was a brand new defensive coordinator for Miami when they played for it all last year. We're quite frankly a drive away offensively for winning the whole thing last year. All right, Fernando Mendoza played some ball. Mike Shanahan obviously coached some ball for a while at Indiana. Same thing with Brian Haynes, like. But Mike Shanahan and Fernando Mendoza had never worked together. So I'll say that to say, as far as Fernando Mendoza is concerned, the guy touching the football every single snap for it, Indiana, Mike Shanahan might as well have been a new coordinator for him because he was a new coordinator for him. So again, it's not an exact science. Chip Kelly, also OC for Ohio State when they went at all his first year in the job. It's not an exact science. I'm just saying I think if you have to pick somebody you feel good about, I feel best about rolling with Oregon and, and answering those questions around their coordinators. Some people will say, JD that's all well and good. Good for you picking a national championship. I disagree. Here's why. Dan Lanning in the College Football Playoff has gotten embarrassed. And some people in the football world, Parathlon, who did their anonymous coaching quotes, they do during the off season. The take is, well, hey, Dan Laning in the post season is not complex enough game plan wise to be able to win the whole thing. To win at the highest level, they gotta adapt. They gotta be better. That word adapt is a funny one because I think that's exactly what's made Dan Laning, Dan Lanning, over the course of his time at Oregon, like, he shows up that roster not good enough to go compete for what would eventually be a Big Ten championship when they made that pivot or good enough to go be a playoff team. But I say that to say over the course of time now, Dan Lanning using the portal, shooting at a high level, push them to that tier. Now make no mistake, that roster was still really good when he got there. Was it at the degree it's at going into 2026, I would reckon to say no. That's how I feel about it. I also think that when you look at Dan Lanning and how he approaches the game itself, when you listen to him talk to different people, he keeps on alluding to a couple different things. Growth, mindset, being on the cutting edge, adapting. All these just different words that make you think, okay, Oregon football does not think they have it all figured out. They understand they have not done what they have to do long term here to be successful in Eugene, which is winter national freaking championship. And with that, that Nike money behind you with those resources. Yeah, that's the expectation. Great input comes, great output expectations at least great power comes, great responsibility like that makes all the sense of the world to me. And so with that being the framework for Oregon, with that being the mindset of we have to keep evolving, challenging everything, we have to keep adapting, I would be shocked if we saw Oregon once again get to the College Football Playoff and be out game planned by somebody. I don't think that's going to happen if it does ball up top. But I think when you talk about what caused Oregon to potentially fall flat in previous years, I don't think that'll repeat itself because I don't think Dan Laning is in the business of being stubborn on things that maybe they did a year ago. Like he said during an interview, I keep referring to this. I think it's a great conversation. But him and Yogi Roth had a conversation in the springtime and Dan Lanning said something to Yogi. He said, I think saying it's the way we've always done it is one of the worst reasons to do something. And so I believe to look at the Indiana game, say hey we got shredded here. Indiana had our number. They absolutely took advantage of every single semi vanilla coverage we rolled out there in and we have to be better. I think they'll adjust, I think they'll adapt. And a big reason why I'm picking Oregon to, to win the national championship. I will just say this too. You're picking one out of 130 plus teams win a national title like you're taking a swing regardless. And I just feel the best taking a swing on Oregon's roster, taking a swing on Dan Lennon continue to evolve his fifth year as a head coach in the sport and I feel good about Oregon overall now being able to break through and win the whole darn thing. So again, great feedback. Appreciate your feedback. We are doubling down on the Ducks to be hoisting that hardware when it's all said and done in Las Vegas. Next piece of feedback we got biggest pushback I guess we got alongside our our preseason predictions we picked Darien Mensah, Miami quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy. I was, I was surprised by this feedback. A lot of you via the text message or voicemail thread got at us 629-883-931 and let us know. Hey, we think Darien Mint is a bit overhyped. It's not all that, J.D. it's all hype. All hat, no cattle, as they say in Texas. I don't really get this full transparency. I'm not on board with this. Obviously, by picking Dari Mensa to win the Heisman Trophy. Here's why. If you're telling me someone is all hype, that is implying that, that you believe there is very little substance to go with what that person is advertised to be. Darian Mensah was second in college football last year in total passing yards. That substance. Darian Mensah, since he's been a starting quarterback in the sport of college football, all this dude does is win conference championships. That's substance. He won the ACC last year, granted in 7 and 5 fashion, but won the ACC last year with Duke. Or we're talking corrective lenses and ACT scores. What we're going to do for our summer internship. The majority of the student body is talking about that. Daria Mensa allowed his team, dare I say carried his team to win the ACC a season ago. Yeah, they had some good players around them. Cooper Barquette, one of those players that comes with Dari Mensa from Duke. But y', all, you look at the, the rush numbers for Duke, they had a good backfield in terms of like, where they ranked in the conference with know the leading rushers. But you talk about, like, the, the scope of college football. They were 86th in college football in rush yards per game. More on Darren Mensah to push them to go win the acc. So again, if it's about he's overhyped, I would say, well, why do you think he's overhyped? Because all I see from this guy throughout the course of his career is he gets buckets. He has substance, he has stats, he has real tangible things you can point to and say, I don't know, say what you want. Guy looks like he's doing pretty well. Watch him on Saturdays when you spot the ball. Darren Mensa seems to time and time again come up big. The other part of this, he's not like, transferring up like you're saying, he's all hype. I'm like, relative to what? Not transferring to like, the Big Ten or the sec. He's literally playing in the same conference he played in a year ago. And oh, by the way, he won that conference with his same go to receiver. And the receivers around him got better. His running back room's got three, four deep. Like, where are. I'm missing. I'm missing the mark here on where somehow we're Overhyping Darian Mensah. I think the rebuttal you would get to that most frequently is, well, J.D. the skill set is kind of. Kind of fugazi. Fugazi, as some people in our comment section have let us know. You pronounce that. I'll hear that. I mean, the skill sets, like, you know, it depends on what you like. Because the thing that you hear is, well, JD doesn't have a big arm. Not a crazy athlete. Good frame. Not great frame. You know who had a big arm? You know who had a great frame? Jamarcus Russell, Paxton, Lynch. Yeah, that. Were they incredible? Were they just rock stars and everything in the world? The quarterback was. I don't think so. Not by my estimation. So if you're, if your gripe is, well, hey, the skill set with Darian Mensah leaves a little bit to be desired. J.D. i would say, okay, I don't really care how far you can throw the football. I care if he's accurate. Well, daddy doesn't run a four. Four is not a crazy athlete. I don't really care. He's slippery. He negotiates the pocket well. He's elusive. Go watch that Clemson tape. The dude's making people miss and find an open receivers. You know what else he is? He's freaking savvy dude. Like he knows where the answers are in a defense. Last year, Darren Mensah threw 34 touchdowns. Okay, of those 34 touchdowns, 22 of them came when he was blitzed. What does that mean? When you bring pressure and you try and be a little bit sneaky and aggressive and heat up Dari Mensa, he understands where the weak points in your defense are. That's savvy. That's iq. I'll take that every single day of the week and multiple times on Saturdays. Like Darian Mensa being able to have the answers. I don't care if you can throw the ball 70 yards. If we can be accurate from 30 and in, okay, great. I'll roll with that every single time. Because guess what? We have Malachi Tony catching the ball for us. We have Cooper Barket catching the ball for us. We got Shannon Dawson dialing it up for us. Like, if you think Darry Menta is overhyped, more power to you, I suppose. But look at just the the portal quarterbacks Miami's brought in the last couple of years. I would argue Darian Mensa is the best equipped of Carson Beck or Cam Ward to have success at Miami. Based on like preseason information we have now. I'm not saying Darian Ment is better than Cam Ward. That's not the take I'm going at here. But look at where Carson Beck was trajectory wise, showing up in Coral Gables. Kind of a little bit of a weird situation coming from Georgia. He had declared for the draft, but then he comes back to school, he goes to Miami and like he misses spring practice, he's hurt. Dari Mention's coming off a year where he won the ACC again, the conference you're playing in, and was second in college football and passing yards trajectory is up and to the right. There's no questioning Darian Mensah. Also, he's healthy and got spring practice. So there's that terms of production level like Ken Ward was productive at Washington State, wasn't thrown for 3900 yards to call a spade a spade here. He didn't do what Darian Mensah did. Keep it a buck. Also, Darian Mensah playing in two different systems. One at Miami or excuse me, not one in Miami, one at Duke a season ago, the year before at Tulane, now going to be at Miami. He's on his third system. He's had success learning two different systems though. Again, I think there's a lot there with Dari Mensah and in terms of just overall when he walks in the door in Coral Gables for the very first time, he was better equipped than both Carson Beck and Cam Ward based on what I'm looking at production wise and trajectory wise. So does he have a Cam Ward type season? Tbd. But I really believe he will be a lot closer to that than what Miami's had anywhere outside of Cam Ward. I really do. I think he'll be a Mount Rushmore type figure for Miami this year and I think he wins Eisen Trophy. So say what you want, but if you're talking about Daria Mets of being overhyped, I just, I have a really, really hard time wrapping my mind in good conscious around some of those rebuttal points personally. But that's why you spot the ball and play the games, huh? That's why you spot the ball and play the games. Another piece of feedback we got from y' all based on our our postseason predictions. A lot of y' all are saying, J.D. that's cool that you like Oklahoma, but you like them way too much, dude. Like, you think they're going to be a team that plays for the SEC championship. Think they win 11 games? Like I don't, I don't know about all that, brother. You're way Too high on Oklahoma. Also, for what it's worth, we have them at the six seat in the College Football Playoff. I digress. We'll talk about this right now before we do. If you love college football, if you are frothing at the mouth for them to spot the freaking ball, and in week one, sure. But in week zero, even more so, that's. That's even closer. If you love this sport with every fiber of your being, make sure you're subscribed. Appreciate y'.
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All.
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Okay, so again, if you're pushing back and saying, J.D. you're too high in Oklahoma, I would ask you a question. I would say, okay, what don't you believe in with Oklahoma? What is it that's keeping you from getting there on the Sooners? I would imagine you would have two things you would say. One is, JD the run game sucked last year. It was atrocious. You cannot go play for the SC Championship with that kind of run game. No way in the world. I agree. I agree. I hear you. Here's my thing. I don't believe that it's going to be as bad as it was a year ago. On one hand, it just can't be. There's no way it could be as bad as it was a year. Last year was atrocious. It was an embarrassment. It's awful. You bring back three of your starting five offensive linemen. You bring in a Marion Harris, who allowed three sacks and 400 snaps at Arkansas. Okay, so there's some good production there. Two, a guy who understands what it is in the SEC playing tackle for you, that's big. Most importantly here, man, you got Jason Whitten on your staff, and he wasn't there last year. Like Jason Whitten. Based on our conversation we had with John Matier in Tampa at media days, he sounds like a thermostat as opposed to a thermometer. And football guys know what I'm talking about. But if you have no idea what I'm saying. Jason Whitten walks into a room, and based on everything we understand about the guy changes. The overall intensity, intentionality, feeling like he is a guy. He walks in there and you know it's time to go. All right? There is no way to quantify the impact of that. There's no number you can put to it. But at the same time, there's also no way to overstate what that can be for a. A position room or an offense like Jason Whitten. I promise you this. His tight ends will block. They will block. They will Take pride in blocking. They will be nasty blocking. It'll be something they do at a really high level. Not just because the personnel is gonna be better. Hayden Hansen, Rocky Beers, like, not because they have some big bodies in there, but like they have individuals now that I believe Jason Wynn won still his, his intense culture into. And they will be better than line of scrimmage because of it. Okay, so in a roundabout way, man, I just, I have a really hard time believing that Jason Whitten, future NFL hall of Famer, the tight end position is going to be a part of an offensive staff that can't run the ball. Doesn't make sense to me if you disagree. More power to you, but that doesn't make sense to me. Okay, so other thing that I think you'd point to, if you're out in Oklahoma or you're not as high as we are in Oklahoma, that's fine. I think you would say J.D. jamatir kind of hot and cold last year. Right. Like I get, he got hurt, but just was never really that impressive last year. I'm not seeing what you're seeing. Okay, that's fine. Let's take the injury out of it. Can you cite me a game that he was healthy last year? The few of them there were where you don't like Jamatier because of that game. And Billy Lucci of Texas actually sat down with us and talked about this when we were out there with him in Tampa and he was like, yeah, Michigan game makes me nervous. Couple throws got away from. Okay, that's cool. If that's your take. I have, I have no pushback. We just disagree there. We just disagree. But I think the majority of people, the gripes they have with John Mateer, you don't hear the Auburn game mentioned much when you talk about Mater. Don't hear the Michigan game mentioned much. We talk about John Mateer. You hear people talk about, well, they were pretty anemic in November and the pick six against Bama, it's like, yeah, I, I get all that. We, that's all the way over here. In a different category, we're saying Jamatir we think was pretty freaking good those first few games. Leading the Heisman Trophy race before he got hurt. Feels like a pretty good sign, if you will, as to what he's going to be in 2026. I digress. It's that him being healthy, plus I keep saying this. I think from the neck up everything is just in a better spot for drama tier. Another year in the system with the Offense, we're watching tape with Sammy Bradford, watch tape with Brent Venables. We know what it is now, playing at the speed in the sec. We know what windows we can and can't fit the football into. Got our confidence in our swagger back. Like, I just. I think there's so much there for John Mateer to where he won't just be what he was in September. I think he's better. Big reason why I think Oklahoma finds themselves in that spot to play for an SEC championship. Okay, all things considered, man, the schedule for Oklahoma definitely sucks. But I think that their brand of ball is going to travel. I'm not here telling you that the run game is going to be 200 yards a pop. Not saying that, but I think they'll be balanced. And I think that defense is going to give you a shot in every single game. If you don't believe me, look at what last year was. Oklahoma was just limping their way to the finish line. Like, you ever go watch your friends run a marathon or some crazy ironman or whatever? You watch people down at the finish line and they are just. I mean, it's hard to watch.
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Dude.
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People are limping. They're out of breath. Some people are all, like, beaten up. Like, how are you beaten up from running a marathon? I digress. It's hard to watch. That was Oklahoma last year in November. It didn't make a lot of sense. They were clearly operating off of Will and their. And their defense and Brent Venable scheming it up like they were willing themselves to the finish line. That defense is still there. Rev Edibles still in charge. Adults on that defense, only one underclassman, Courtland Guillory. And Cortland Guillory might be the best corner in the sec. I don't know. We'll see. Like, that defense is going to be good anywhere. Going to be good anywhere. I promise you that. So the schedule itself, yes, it sucks. It's the sec, dude. Heck, you pledge it's the sec. Your schedule kind of sucks. It is what it is. Two thoughts there. One, there's no way that you are as ill equipped as last year to make the playoff. So there's one part of it, it can't get any harder. The other part of this is eight of your ten Power 4 opponents you play have either a new quarterback or a new play caller. Advantage of Edibles. You're telling me you got two guys that have never worked together in eight of our 10 games we're playing here, we're going to Have a chance to really throw you off your pivot. That's going to be advantageous every single time. On top of that now, sucky schedule, you still get Ole Miss and A and M at the crib, their worst things. So, yeah, for Oklahoma, we're believing a little bit here. We're definitely buying low a little bit on the Sooners based on what some people think nationally and what Vegas says about them. But all things considered, man, Oklahoma's offense, if they're just balance, if they're just dynamic, if they're just multiple, there's not a style of fight they can't win. Like, if Matir is back to what we think he's going to be, Oklahoma can play in a shootout if they have to play some rock fights, you're telling me that defense can't go into the rock? All they did was win rock fights last year. So I look at Oklahoma, man, if we're too high on them, so be it. But we have been really pretty freaking down on the Sooners each of the last couple of years. And. And if we are swinging too big, we make no apologies for it. High on Oklahoma. And I think, honestly, when you get down to brass tax, there's a lot of reasons to be on the Sooners right now. One of the pushback we got here in terms of a team that we are not yet high enough in the eyes of some of y', all, based on the. Based on your. Your feedback, people are saying we are not high enough on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Now, let's revisit history a second here, because you hear stuff like, why you out? Why do you hate the Irish? Why don't you like Notre Dame? We've had Marcus Freeman on the show just about every single off season we've been here. We said Notre Dame in the preseason before the national championship run was our frozen pizza team. The more we looked at them, the more we liked them. Even after niu, we're like, I still think they run the table and make the College Football Playoff. We had Jeremiah Love on the show this past off season. I have C.J. carr as a top 10 quarterback in the sport. Number six quarterback for us. We had Notre Dame in the preseason last year predicted to make the College Football Playoff. So miss me with all the you're just down on Notre Dame talk. I just want to make sure we refute that from. From the jump. Here's the problem we run into when we try to give a nuanced take on Notre Dame on our side of things that doesn't include Notre Dame winning the national championship. Because your feedback again comes on the heels of us picking them to make the playoff as the 7 seed, win a game and lose in the following round. Apparently it means we hate Notre Dame. I don't know. Here's the problem though. We just want to date Notre Dame on this show. I just want to date Notre Dame on this show. Everyone else in our space, seemingly more power to them, wants to marry Notre Dame. They're ready to propose or they drop to a knee. Give him a ring. All boss. I'm not against that. Go. Good for you. If you found love in 2026 and the fighting Irish, God bless you. Go, go propose for me. I'm like, I just want to learn more about Notre Dame. I want to spend more time with Notre Dame. I want, I want to figure out what Notre Dame's family is like. Go back, go back for Thanksgiving and have dinner with, with the, the potential in laws here. I'm not, I'm not down in Notre Dame. I want to learn more about Notre Dame. Okay, so the problem is here, and a lot of folks now in the southeastern part of the United States can relate to this. When everyone else around you is getting engaged and you're still dating, that applies some pressure. Well, you don't want to get married at 18 years, 19 years old. What's wrong with you?
- [32:11]
B
I don't know.
- [32:11]
A
Maybe I want to learn a little bit more about this team. Maybe I want to see what C.J. carr is a little bit more than 12 starts. Maybe I want to see what they're like without two first round running backs and a wide receiver who's brand new. That's expected to be wide receiver one J.D. you see to number seven though, don't you hate us? Number seven? Disrespectful. You see that schedule? Yes, I've seen the schedule. I think you go 11 and 1 is my prediction. Say we hate Notre Dame at 11 1. God forbid. The conference thing or the lack thereof for Notre Dame is just kind of tricky to seed. To break this down a little bit further like I think again, 11 and one for Notre Dame. Feels fair. Can I put you in front of a one loss runner up in the regular season, Oklahoma or a one loss in the regular season, Ohio State or ahead of a conference champ in Texas Tech or a conference champ in Miami? If you beat Miami, I suppose I could. But again, I have Miami winning that football game. So at 11 and one not playing a conference championship game, I have a hard time docking Those teams that plan a conference title and don't win because they played an extra weekend. I have a difficult time personally putting you ahead of a conference champ in a power four conference if you have one loss and they have one loss. So that's where this kind of gets tricky because you look at the graphic and say number seven is atrocious. If you go undefeated, you're going to have a really good case to be the number one team in the entire country and number one seed in the playoff. And that's more than fine. But based on how this thing works and based on how I see the season playing out, if you have one loss in a conference title, runner up has one loss, I'm giving the nod to the team with the tougher schedule that only lost one game in the regular season and played for the conference championship. Not down on Notre Dame. It's just kind of how this whole thing works. That's how I'm looking at it. So I mentioned the. The wanting to find more information on Notre Dame piece of things. The There is, well, JD Number one in returning production in college football. How much more do you need to know? I hear you. I get that. But I think a big reason why people are all in Notre Dame, while some people are going to Jared and buying a ring and dropping a knee for the Irish, I get it, is, hey, they are all in on C.J. carr and I'm happy for them. I like C.J. carr. I got him as a top 10 quarterback in the sport. But I need you to show me the game that I'm supposed to look at with C.J. carr and say, this is why he's the best in the. This is why I'm all the way in on this guy. A and M game was great. It was awesome. I think A M progressed this as the season went on. Defensively, it was impressive. There's no way around that. Miami game was good. His first start of his entire career. So I'm impressed by that. The NC State game, he went for 342. North Carolina State allowed 285 a game. They were, they were ranked 133rd in all of college football in terms of past defense. Like, I like CJ Carr, but show me the one moment, the one game where you say, this guy is absolutely unbelievable. This is why he's number one in the country. I haven't seen it just yet. And it's hard to say that and then say, I like the guy. Because some people will just say, well, you hate C.J. carr because you don't think it's the best thing since sliced bread? Not the case. Just I feel like everyone's trying to rush up CJ Carr, really good quarterback. I want to see more from him against elite competition. We don't get a ton of that this year because Notre Dame schedule, but like there's some stuff last year that make you say, okay, we got some, some growth to still have go on here. Cj the pit game, not incredible. Two picks, don't love that. The USC game, yeah, it was rainy, I get that. But like that was a big spot for your football team and you had some red shirt freshman moments. It's funny because I keep saying I like CJ Carr, but also I need to see more before I totally propose to what this is going to be for Notre Dame. And it feels like a lot of people in the space are trying to take on that like eager parent role. When are you going to settle down? When are you going to propose? When are you going to be in on the Irish? When are you going to go buy a ring and move on and settle down? It's like just stop trying to rush. Like, can we not learn a little bit more about them? Your go to wide receiver for next year allegedly going to Mylan Graham. I know Jordan Faison still there, phenomenal young bucks and Burris and Williams and all that Jaden Gray has. If he's healthy, he's great. Myelin Graham, if he is your wide receiver one next year, has caught six passes in his college football life. Can I get a little bit longer to evaluate the guy, to evaluate Notre Dame's offense? He had two first round backs last year that were great. They're both gone. Aeneas Williams made some big plays for the Irish over the course of his career. I mean, without what he did in that Orange Bowl, I don't know if the Irish play for a national championship. He came up big multiple times. He's got just over 400 career rushing yards. Can I see more from him? Is that too inappropriate? I don't think so. I don't think we're asking too much. Here's the one thing I will say though, for Irish fans, as much as you're watching this, maybe you're hate watching, maybe you're hope watching, maybe you're saying, hey, let's all hear this guy out. Let's, let's just listen to what he has to say. You have earned the right now with what Marcus Ruman has done there to be angsty and to disagree with what I'm saying it's not delusional if you think they're going to play for a national championship like in previous years. If you said Notre Dame is going to win at all, you'd say, what are you looking at? That roster is nowhere near on par with a Georgia or an old Bama or old Clemson. Nowhere near. And guess what? They'd get to the College Football Playoff and that would be reflected. They would get their stuff kicked in embarrassed, like, that sucks. That's not this Notre Dame. When Notre Dame gets back on the field with a Georgia and Ohio State, a Miami, whoever, they have a roster to more than compete. They're on the same tier now. Now, again, there's things matchup wise that I like about different teams against Notre Dame just based on how we predicted this thing. But if you're a Notre Dame fan telling me I'm wrong and spitting on, on my proverbial face here, you're not crazy either. And that's a testament to what Freeman's done here since getting to Notre Dame. And that's, I think, the way that Notre Dame will continue to trend. It has only gotten harder with a national championship in college football, y'.
- [38:31]
B
All.
- [38:32]
A
It's only getting harder. The days of teams going for multiple titles in a row and winning three and five, like, that's not going to be the world we live in here anymore. And it's unfortunate because that's kind of the time where Notre Dame is really starting to hockey stick and figure it out roster wise. But I want to learn more. I want to see more. I don't hate Notre dame. Got him 11 and one. If they win at all, then that means the things that I want to learn more about ended up proving true in a really exciting way for Irish fans. So not high enough on the Irish for some of you. I want to learn more, want to learn more. And I don't, don't apologize for it. Neither should you. If you're an Irish fan saying, JD we know everything, you're stupid. Win the national championship. That's the beauty of August, man. The beauty of August and September. We finally get to spot the ball. Okay, last piece of feedback we got from y' all relative to our preseason predictions. I said, I think Gunner Stockton is going to be in New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. I think he's going to be a finalist. A lot of y' all got back and said, J.D. you're, you're crazy. You're out of your gourd, right? I think there's A lot of pieces to this one maybe just don't think Gunner Stockton is that good and if you think that I would disagree because I think what he did last year in multiple spots against good competition proves otherwise. That throw against Tennessee. Just go watch that throw against Tennessee to force overtime. The dot London Humphreys absolute drop in a bucket. Let me show the other part of this though for a lot of people is the optics around Gunner Stockton. Six one, two fifteen y'.
- [40:07]
B
All.
- [40:08]
A
I'm be real with y'. All. I'm probably like five eleven ish. That is we stood next to Gunner Stockton SC media days. That is a generous six one dude. Generous six one. Maybe he truly is and I'm just tripping But I think 6:1 is probably a touch of a reach for Gunner on the on the roster. Neither here nor there. He doesn't fit the molds. We've said multiple times of what you expect from a first round caliber NFL quarterback. That's fine. We're not playing that football. We're talking about college football here. Reason why I feel so good about Gunner Stockton. Man, he is going to be really good. Georgia is going to be really good. When it comes to winning the Heisman Trophy, your team's success is sort of a non negotiable. Even guys that have won it in the past. For teams that haven't like, you know, won the national championship or made the playoff. Jaden Daniels, Travis Hunter, both had ridiculous seasons but they also played on football teams that won nine games. One like they were just abysmal and won the Heisman. Like that stuff matters. When you look at how you vote for the Heisman, I want to be careful how I say this because you got a Heisman vote, you're a somebody in the space and that's awesome. At the same time, some of these Heisman voters, I don't really believe watch enough college football to to be able to differentiate between who deserves this award and who doesn't. So I say that to say it matters to be on a team that's ranked in the top 10 and to be the quarterback of that team and to have success. Some people just say, okay, let me go ahead and throw them, throw them a vote. I think it might be something we gotta tinker with here in the future. But neither here nor there. Georgia itself will be in that mix, I believe for the College Football Playoff. I think they're going to win the SEC and if that ends up being the case, Gunner Stockton is going to be on that movie poster for Georgia winning The SEC and being contention for national championship once again. Okay, look at the, the way the Heismans are won over the course of history. Going back to the whole thing with how voters look at the race. Voters, whether fair or not, are enthralled with Heisman moments. Having a big game, having big numbers, especially in the month of November. The November for Georgia is like the right amount of workable and exciting at Ole Miss made the playoff last year. Stockton versus Chambliss, Round three. Let's run that back. Missouri transparently should be a pretty good numbers game for Gunner as South Carolina you would like to think for Georgia going to be a good numbers game. Georgia Tech same thing. And then when they play for the SEC championship that's going to be a chance now for a big stage, big moment. Here we go Gunner, go make it happen. Now the thing that could derail this prediction, maybe Georgia just absolutely runs the heck out of the ball and Gunner has less attempts. I don't know. I don't think that's going to be the MO for Georgia this year. Anytime you do something for longer than a year, a job, you volunteer whatever it is, you get more responsibility. Kind of how it works, right? Whether you like it or not, you get more responsibility. Gunner Stockton, now in year two, I think he gets more responsibility in this offense. You're no longer just a guy we got to navigate around or a guy we're trying to support and trying to get you comfortable. Gunner Stockton's been comfortable. I think Bobo realized that pretty early on last year for Georgia. This dude is, is not going to be afraid of the moment. Look at fourth quarter and overtime, his splits as a pastor versus the rest of the sec. Gunner gets better as the game goes. Gunner is the best in fourth quarter and overtime situations of any quarterback in the conference. Translation, he's built for some big moments, he's built for some big stages he's built for in the Heisman Trophy race. Having a big moment, having a big play, having a Heisman moment in the fourth quarter that catches voters attention and puts him in New York City pretty straightforward. So alongside this prediction here for Gunner Stockton, I am betting that a pass catcher in that Georgia receiver room elevates and becomes a go to guy on third and passing. It's non negotiable. But I also think now that Gunner Stockton is going to have some pretty, pretty good splash plays. Which is funny to say for a Georgia offense, but I think they'll have it based on what they do in play action. Like Nate Frazier back a bunch of that offensive line back. I think they're going to be able to impose their will on football teams. And when that happens, safeties creep down, get a little bit eager, real estate on the back end. Even if Talon Taylor is a work in progress, even if London Humphreys doesn't win the Blitnikov Award, I think both those guys along with the rest of Georgia's receiving corps is going to be good enough to separate when you have real estate downfield. And I think Gunner is going to be able to cash in. Which again goes back to the number side of things for Gunner when it comes to being able to have a spot in New York City for the Heisman Trophy. Also, Gunner was top 10 last year in Heisman boating. I believe he finished like number seven. So saying he's going to be in the top four really isn't that crazy. I understand that there's some, some thoughts around. Well, is he the best quarterback in college football? Is he. This is. That's not what this is about. It's talking about moments, opportunity, progress from Gunner to get from where he is in the voting a year ago to top four. I think it's all very, very attainable. So I'm not calling my shot from when the Heisman must say he's going to be the number one quarterback in the entire country when it's all said and done. But I do think now the optics around him, the optics around what you expect a Georgia quarterback to be, I think he's a lot better than both those narratives. Just a game manager. Six one again, generous. Six one is not, not your six foot four, six foot five first round quarterback. Mole is not Carson Beck of what he was supposed to be when he was at Georgia. But I think the guy delivers. I think he's gritty and I think those traits make for some Heisman moments in November in the SEC championship game ends up being the difference for Stockton and gets him to New York City. So I hear the pushback, but I think a lot of the pushback is based on what you just assume Gunner Stockton is without diving too deep into what he actually is and what he will be for Georgia here in 2026. All right. So again appreciate the feedback, man. I hope all this feels feels respectful. All right. We appreciate y' all letting us know what you think about this. We obviously give our our reaction to your reaction, which is all fun to have a kind of show like this to have that built on. Want to finish though with another voicemail prompt that we had out there for the last couple of weeks, what is your college football pet peeve for me, I'm like, watch parties your boys out. I don't want to have a lot of the jibber jabbering going on and past the plate for, for, you know, the nachos, whatever. We order. Like, I'm here for a good vibe. But the best vibe to me is focusing on the college football game at hand and not doing small talk and have it be a social event. So put out the call to action. Asked y', all, 629-88-3931, what are your college football season pet peeves couple? Y' all responded in an absolutely elite fashion. We unpacked a couple of them on the show a few weeks ago. We got some more to unpack right now. One of you called us from what sounds like the witness protection program. Just absolutely hush tone. Go and take a listen to what my man has to say about one of his pet peeves for a college football Saturday relative to what his family may or may not ask of him during a Saturday.
- [47:26]
B
My name is Z. I'm from Oklahoma. And I got to be quiet when I say this so parents don't hear. But you cannot make me me my brother, you can drive now. You cannot be making us leave to go pick up food or go run shopping errands in the middle of the Saturday slog when it's 3:30, when it's 6, oh, when it's big noon kickoff, you cannot then be telling us it's time. We need you to go to Walmart. We need you to pick up dinner. You got to tell us before the night before. Or simply, we got to be out of your legislation.
- [48:10]
A
No disagreement there. A man has got to have a code. Here's what I would say. One, I appreciate you firing off that call, firing off that voicemail under what seemed to be really strenuous conditions. Just keeping a hush tone, making sure the parents don't hear. Second thing I would say communication on this front to solve this pet peeve is your best friend. That pet peeve is extremely valid. Hey, when we spot the ball for a college football Saturday family here, we only get so many of these. You want me to run errands on Saturdays in March, I'm there. Saturdays in April, you say it. But when it is late August all the way through late January now, and it's a Saturday slate of college football gluttony, I am locked in. I'm not going to run your errands for you.
- [48:59]
B
Now.
- [48:59]
A
I understand it's a defiant thing to say. And maybe it doesn't fly with the parents. Again, going back to communication, we want to be proactive. We don't want to be reactive in the scenario. To help ourselves, we got to say, hey, listen, tomorrow, this is what I am planning to do. I want to be locked in from 11am Central all the way till 2am Whenever that last Hawaii snap wraps up. That is my plan for tomorrow. If you need something from me, I am happy to serve you. I'm happy to live under your roof. That's a big deal. I am grateful for all this. However, if you need something from me, let me take care of that today. Like, we got to be communicating. We got to be proactive, not reactive. I would even go so far as to say, Saturday morning game day comes around, perfect world. You're watching all of college game day. You're watching all the big noon kickoff. I get it. But if it means helping yourself for that noon, 3:30 and prime time slot to say, hey, what do you need for me? Last call. I want to help you. I want to do my part in this fan family. What do you need from me? I think that's a good way to go about it. So we're with you. We stand with you on this side. But here's the beautiful thing, man. Doordash, ubereats. Neither one of those are sponsors of this show, but they exist. And when 1201 comes and the ball has been kicked off on Big Noon or whatever game you're watching, you can tap into that and maybe it's a little bit more expensive, which is why you communicate on the front end. But I'm just saying, man, the delivery apps could be your best friend here when you're trying to make peace and trying to get the family what they need. So we appreciate you calling 100% align with that pet peeve. Proactive, not reactive communication is what this whole thing is built on to help ourselves stay out of this pet peeve territory. Next up, get a lot of these calls, man. A fall wedding. They happen. They're real things. And one of you is in a very tricky predicament relative to a wedding that has been scheduled and your role in that wedding when it comes to October. Check it out.
- [50:58]
B
Hey, J.D. this is Owen calling from Norman, Oklahoma. At least, how are you grad? I'm calling because my sister decided to schedule her wedding in Tulsa on the second Saturday of October. Yes, you heard that right. On the second Saturday of October. I usually skip it because Red river is more important Than anything. But I'm a best man. Give me advice, please, on what I need to do because I think I need to see a matier arch duel in person. A real one without matier hurt. But let me know. Bye bye.
- [51:46]
A
Yes. Double whammy. It's double whammy. It's a fall wedding and you're the best man. I guess triple whammy because it's your sister's wedding. So it's a family wedding, best man. And it's in the fall. We got. This is a tough situation. I would love to sit here and tell you, hey, man, you can say no. Hey, your sister will understand. Hey, she made her decision knowing full well that you were going to be excited about a certain game going on that day in Red River. I hear you. I can't in good faith tell you that, brother. I wish I could. I really do. If it was a friend, if it was a. A distant connect or whatever, like, yeah, you can say, I appreciate you. I'm busy that day. Here's a wedding gift. I will support your marriage for its entirety. It's family and you're the best man. You gotta be there. There's no think about the aftermath if you don't go to this wedding. What's the strain on the family situation like when you're looking at pictures in the future of, wow, that was the best day of my sister's life and I wasn't there. You're in the wedding both, like, metaphorically, I suppose, by nature of being the best man. And then literally you are going to have to be at this wedding, brother. So does that mean that all is lost? No, by no stretch the imagination. All that means is your perspective. Your approach has got to change. I keep referring to this book on this show several times a year, I feel like, because I love it so much. Ryan Holiday's got a book called the Obstacle is the Way. The whole premise is get an obstacle. Yeah, it sucks, but you find the opportunity in the obstacle to turn it into a positive. All right, so here's the positive for you. With this obstacle, you got a chance now with all of what I'm sure is your surrounding family and maybe some friends as well to make a really freaking cool memory. Hey, remember that day when my sister got married? I was the best man and we were all dialed in during the reception via my iPhone at the table to Red river, watching John Matier slice and dice and find a way to win in overtime against Texas. Wouldn't that be a cool thing for your life? Wouldn't that be a cool memory to have with you and everyone that you're associated with? Rooting for Oklahoma. Now, Oklahoma's got to take care of business on their end, so I hear you on that. Here's what you got to do, though. Phone. We got to make sure it's charged. Gotta make sure it's charged. You cannot walk into this reception, walk into this wedding and be on low power mode. Can't do it. Be prepared. Heck, bring a charger. Probably a good way to go. Second thing here, if you're watching via a streaming service, we got to get the WI FI password from somebody. So what I'm doing here, pre wedding, talking to people on the staff there, talking to someone who's catering, talking to someone who's in charge of the venue. Hey, good to see you. Thanks for having us. Is there WI Fi by chance? We can't be doing the pixely streaming of Red River. Cannot do that. Will not do that. So, yes. Tough card to be dealt with. It's an obstacle, opportunity. We can make a memory. We can watch this thing in real time on our device. You got to be in the wedding, dude. We. I appreciate where your heart's at, but you got to be in this wedding. You'll be grateful long term. All right. But Chance here to make a really freaking cool memory. Wish you the best, man. Wish you all the best, genuinely. Last one up, a topic that needs to be discussed in depth. A pet peeve around how to operate if you are invested in an outcome of a game, but your friend's heart is also invested in the outcome of a game. Take a Listen.
- [55:09]
B
So, J.D. it's Charlie from North Carolina. Roll. Todd, big fan of the show. Got a pet peeve for you here. My guy cheering against your favorite team. Like your buddies cheering against your favorite team because they have placed a bet on the opposite team. All right? I don't mind that you bet against my dogs. All right, that's cool. But if you're going to do that and you're going to be watching the party with me, watching the game with me, you can't be openly rooting against my guys while they're on the field. If you're going to do a fist pump, walk in the other room, go to the bathroom, man, that's cool. But openly rooting against my guys. And. And, yeah, yeah, that's it. It can't happen. It can't happen. It's bad for morale. It deteriorates the friendship. It's. It's just a tough look all around.
- [56:11]
A
But that's the pet peeve. It's a great pet peeve. It's really fair. Pet peeve. Two things I would say. One, we got to know the scouting report. Hey, the friends that we're going to watch this game with, do they like to be a little bit extra invested financially on a specific side? Because if they are, you're kind of playing the odds yourself there. There's a chance that they are financially invested on an opposing side of where your heart is at. You walk into that. It just, it is what it is. Chips fall where they may. Second piece of that too, in terms of the scouting report. You got to know what you're walking into when it comes to like the setting itself. If it's a neutral site, you are at the mercy of the neutral site. If you're watching this game at a bar or a house or whatever that is not your own setting, all bets are off. You, you are exposed to the elements on the most real level if you're watching it at your house. Second part of this, understand now, if you were inviting somebody over, you got to know what they're going to be going to be into when it comes to watching that game if they don't have a heartstring involved. But in terms of this being a pet peeve, just don't be a bad guy is my thing on this. Don't be a bad guy. Because for me now, when this game ends, my entire week is going to feel different. When this bet ends for you, you won, you lost, you'll move on. But don't be walking in here fist pumping, hooting like that's just annoying. That's a bad guy. That's a bad human. That's a low character kind of move. If you bet on the opposing team that I am rooting for, that's fine. But when you choose to be annoying about it, when you choose to showboat and make it a big thing and make sure everybody knows that you have money invested on one side of this and you're happy or sad about it, it's a horrific move. Horrific, low character move. We need to shame this more. As a college football community, if I invite you into my home to watch a college football game and you know where I fall in this when it comes to rooting interests, I have emotional heartstrings and you're betting against it and actively rooting against it, we cannot have that. We cannot have that. So again, I think communication is a big part of this. I think the scouting report on who you're inviting over Slash. Watching the game with is a part of this but at the end of the day man, this is just. Just don't be a bad guy. Don't be a bad guy and root for the downfall of your friends. Root for your boys. Teams is my take on this. If you have no dog in the fight. But I digress. Appreciate all your voicemails again. 629-883-931. Hit us with your thoughts if you have more college football pet peeves. But we're going to have some more prompts for you in the future from that number. So make sure dial and heck save that number so you can respond in a efficient fashion on those. It's here, man. It is all the way here. The next time we are on the air, we will have college football camp in intel for you. Fall Camp intel gonna be here. It's gonna be awesome. It's gonna be awesome. Appreciate you making the show. What it is for Cato on the ones and the twos for myself, J.D. pikel. We appreciate y'. All. We love y'. All. Don't be a bad guy. Gonna keep this party rolling. We will see you next time,
- [59:29]
B
Sam.