← The Hard Count with J.D. PicKell
The Hard Count with J.D. PicKell
Top 10 Offenses in CFB | 2026 Record Predictions For Miami, Indiana & Penn State
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JD
V A.com code NEWS the hardcount is presented by BetMGM. As you all know by now, we've teamed up with BetMGM and we're using BetMGM lines to make all our picks, and we'll have special offers for you guys each and every week. When you join BetMGM, you get access to a variety of parlay selection features like same game parlays, live betting options, and more. Now, if you haven't signed up with BetMGM, use bonus code on 3. You'll get up to $1,500 new player offer on your first wager with BetMGM plus 50% off an annual subscription to the On3 college sports network. Here's how it works. 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using bonus code on 3. 2. Deposit at least 10 bucks and place your first wager on any game. 3. You'll receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses and Your code for 50% off an annual subscription to the ON3 College Sports Network in your BetMGM inbox once your first bet is placed. Just make sure use bonus code on three when you sign up. Let's make it one for the history books. Let's make it legendary. See betmgm.com for terms 21 plus only U.S. promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler available in the U.S. call 8778-hOPE NY or text HOPE NY 467369 for New York call 1-800-next step, Arizona 1-800-327-5050. Massachusetts, 1-800-bets off. Iowa 1-800-981-0023. Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only subject to the eligibility requirements. Rewards are non withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. All right, baby. It's the hard count on a Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Last one of the Face the Plan as always presented by BetMGM. We got Huell riding shotgun. Man, I don't know about y'. All Just woke up this morning feeling like uh, it's, it's media days outside, you know what I mean? Like the weather starts to get a little bit warmer. The air starts to feel a little bit more summery, a little bit more humid. I just, I wake up out and feel like it's like meaty days about to be here. Because they are about to be here. The next Tuesday show we do now, it'll be your boys out there in Tampa, Florida from SEC media days. A lot to get into on today's show. I want to start with this though. This is that part of the year where we delve a little bit more deeply into ranking things and listing things. And today I think it's best for us to get back to the roots that we had this entire off season. Hit you with the top 10 Tuesday. Hey, who are going to be the top 10 offenses in all of college football? Let's break it down right now. Usually we would have an honorable mention for you when we do a list like this. Not today, man. Too much to get into. And I think there's too many teams to talk about here. So we'll start with number 10. Man. I am still a Will Hampton Hammond truther. Texas Tech number 10 for your boy. But JD Brendan Sworesby was this and that and now they don't have the national championship chops anymore. It's like let's all just pump the brakes a little bit here. Did we not see Will Hammond check into the game against Utah and get absolute buckets on the road. Hostile environment, top 20 matchup. I think Will Hammond still has the juice. I think that that running back room is still one of the best, if not the best in all the Big 12. They're real deal deep. They may have the best tight end to an all of college football as a receiving threat. I said it like I understand. Texas Tech lost some pieces from a year ago. Still the same OC Will Hammond pre Brendan Sworesby with still plan a pre ACL tear, I think they actually have another gear to this offense with Will Hammond running the show now. We'll see how the ACL holds up. Hear me clearly. But if Will Hammond's ACL is stable, he can wiggle a little bit now. He's not Brendan Source be take you 40 yards for a home run kind of mobile, but he's. He's got enough juice. All right, so Texas Tech, everyone can sell their stock. Go ahead and ship it off. Just make sure you sell it to your boy here because I'm high on Texas Tech once again this year. High in Texas Tech on the offensive side of the football. And I still think they will be a team that is very much so in the mix to not just make the playoff, but win some games with when they make the playoff. All right, so Texas tech at number 10 and number nine. How about the Indiana Hoosiers, huh? No Mendoza, No Mark Cooper, No Elijah Surratt. No freaking problem. Josh Hoover comes over with a lot of experience with a lot of production. And everybody that you're worried about Indiana losing last year, Kirsch Signetti has an answer for that. I told you, you lost Omar Cooper, you lost Surratt. You still have Charlie B. From Nashville, Tennessee. You went out and got Nick Marsh over from Michigan State, finally got him out of the Upside Down. Now he's got some guys to get him the football, which is a nice thing for him. A better offensive coordinator he's ever had in his career. No shade on what's going on out there in East Lansing. The floor for Indiana, regardless of what you think they're going to accomplish this year, and we have a record prediction for you on Indiana here later in the show. The floor is still super high. I think we'd all be a little bit shocked if they just fell off the face of the earth. I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think Josh Hoover is going to allow that to happen. And I still trust Mike Shanahan as quietly one of the best coordinators in all of college football. Full stop. Indiana at number nine and number eight. I got Notre Dame, okay? And here's the thing with Notre Dame. We will get very extreme opinions on Notre Dame being too low in this conversation. That's fine. Y' all that have watched this show, you know, I am pro. CJ Carr. I am very much so pro. What they've done in the portal, grabbing those two receivers from Ohio State, I am pro. Mike Denbrock, I am Very pro. The idea of Notre Dame's offense. Okay, can I say that I'm very pro. The idea, what it's going to potentially look like. With that being said, let me make this crystal clear. The approach offensively this year for Notre Dame is going to be different than what it was a year ago. That's not saying they won't throw in the football. That's not saying they won't still be a team that tries to punch you in the face on the ground. They're going to do those things. But we understand C.J. carr now going into year three in the system, year two as a starter. They're going to hand him the keys and say, okay, C.J. drive. C.J. you take us where we're going to go. I just want to see a little bit more of that. I just. I haven't seen him just yet over the course of his young career. No fault of his own. Say, get on my back, we're winning this game. Now, is he capable of doing that? Absolutely. If he was, I wouldn't have him in this top 10. I also would say there is no reason to think that Notre Dame as a whole won't be electric. But understand, I want to see C.J. carr do that. I want to see Mylan Graham be that guy that he's rumored to be right now in South Bend. There's just a whole lot of, like, I want to see it, to believe it. But I'm not hating on Notre Dame. I got him at number eight in this ranking for top 10 offenses in college football. I think they're going to be electric next season. Make that very, very clear. So Notre Dame at number eight. In the same vein of projection, I got lsu, all right? My number seven offense in all of college football. Four. The same thing I said about Notre Dame is true about lsu. I love them on paper. No, I think there's a little bit more to point to for LSU with some of the different production they bring in from across the country. I just want to see it come together. Like, LSU is the electric boys trip that has to make it out of the group chat. And y' all that have a group chat like this, you know what I'm talking about? Hey, bro, what if we went to X, Y and Z place? Hey, bro, what. What if we. We took an abroad trip, just the boys. Oh, that'd be awesome. We'll go to this place, stay at this hostel, go to this sporting event. Cool. That's all great on paper, but guess what? Until it gets out of the group chat. It doesn't matter. Doesn't matter that you got a guy in Sam Levitt who's supposed to be a great fit for Lane Kiffin's offense. Doesn't matter. You got Jordan Seaton, best offensive lineman from the transfer portal. Like, it has to come together. I love Jace Brown. I love Eugene Wilson. There's a lot of names, but. But does it come together? The thing with LSU is there's a lot that has to come together for it to work this way. Okay. It's a big reason why Lane Kiffin's there is to flip the roster and get better personnel, which they've now done. But having better personnel doesn't equate to a better product again, unless it all works in harmony. So on paper, though, it's hard to leave LSU out of this conversation. And I get really excited about what Sam Levitt can be going into next season, assuming he's healthy. Now, this is just kind of the way these lists have worked for us over the course this offseason. It's not intentional. We have LSU and Ole Miss usually neighboring each other on a lot of these lists. I got Ole Miss at six. Like, what do you want me to do? It's the best backfield in college football. Trinidad Shambles and Kiwon Lacey. Can someone name me a better backfield? Bueller? Don't think so. Those two dudes are electric. Now you, you do lose two offensive linemen from a year ago, but you bring back your three interior offensive linemen, which is crucial. Guard, center, guard. Why is that crucial? Guard, center, guard is really what makes the majority of the pocket for Trinidad Chambers to throw from. So having experience there, having continuity there, and chemistry there, absolutely huge. You do have to replace some production out wide. I'm confident this group can do that. Deuce Alexander is the guy that I would circle and highlight as the guy to have a big year. Um, I would also keep an eye on John Tay Cook. High profile recruit, was previously at Texas, shows up at Ole Miss. I think he still got some juice. This is an offense that averaged 36 points a game a year ago. And if you were pounding the table saying Trinidad Chambers is the best returning starter in college football, I wouldn't have too much pushback for you. Ole Miss is going to score now. I know it's no Charlie Weiss. I know it's no Lane Kiffin. Ole Miss isn't worried about that. And I would go back to the College Football Playoff. What Charlie Weiss did call the offense, a lot of that was Trinidad shambles just being an absolute dude taking over games. I think that plot line still very much so exists for this offense to be dynamic, to be multiple, and to just straight up takeover games yet again in 2026. So I think the burden of proof falls on you. If you don't think Ole Miss is a top 10 offense going into next season, I think you'd have a pretty hard time proving that to be the case. All right, so ole miss number six for me in this top 10 offense ranking and number five, I got USC. The thing with USC is their head coach Lincoln Riley has a lot of narratives around him. Oh well, I don't know if he's the right guy to get it done at usc. Look at what they've done since he's been there. Oh well, I don't know if he's going to be able to coach them into the playoffs. Look at how their defenses have been so inconsistent. Turn all the noise around. The narrative is down. Look at the facts. Look at the facts. You have a year three quarterback in the system. Year two as a starter in Jade Myava. You bring back the whole gang up front on the offensive line. You have not one but two proven studs in that running back room in King Miller and Wayman Jordan. Everyone loves Waymond. I've said it a couple times on this show. He was an absolute stud for them before getting hurt. Last year this team averaged 35 points a game and it's mostly the same cast of characters they now you do lose both Makai Lemon, who won the Blitnikoff Award last year, and Jacoby Lane. That's not nothing. But look back at Lincoln Riley. Again, forget narratives, look at facts. He's a great quarterback developer. That's true. Lincoln Riley has also had multiple Blitnikov Award winners and even more finalists. The dude also develops wide receivers and if you think develop is too strong of a word to give to him and terms of his credit that he gets for these wide receivers and their success, from DD Westbrook to Hollywood Brown to CD Lamb to Makai Lemon to Michael Crabtree. If you don't think develop is the right word, just talk about position for success. At the very least, he positions those guys to do big numbers to get open for the quarterbacks to find them. USC is going to score a lot of points this year, I promise you that. They're top five for me on this list and I pretty much laid out all the reasons why. There's a lot of narratives out there which are tempting to look at and to cling on to and to be funny on social media. Look at the facts, man. The facts say USC is going to be pretty dynamic once again on offense. I digress.
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JD
caller to another, Steve Sarkeesian in Texas, number four for me on this list. There's some projection there as there is a lot of these teams on this list. But man, I just, I hope Steve Sarkeesian kept receipts, dude, I hope it's just an absolute petty tour from him in 2026 because I remember so vividly like midway through last year, Sark gets the question. Hey, offense kind of struggling. Sark, you thought about passing off play calling duties and us on this show, I mean, we just swatted that thing down right away. Just, I mean, a hilarious thing to say. But it got some traction. People say, well, you know, most coaches that win national championships are kind of the CEO type. You don't see a lot of it. But Sark responds in elite fashion. Hey, I got this job to be the head coach at Texas because I was a pretty good offensive coordinator. So no, I don't think I'm going to pass off play calling duties anytime soon. The reason why Texas struggled offensively last year was they weren't very good up front and couldn't run the football. And so Sark, the way he calls his offense, it's supposed to be complimentary, supposed to be built off of the run to then be able to throw the football downfield. Well, when you have a first year starting quarterback in Arch Manning and a subpar run game and, and you're not great at protecting Arch Manning, yeah, things get tough to call the offense. So everyone's blaming Sark when they've had a top 25 offense every year's been at Texas just about when we're just completely dismissing the fact that maybe, just maybe having a new offensive line, new quarterback has something to do with it. I don't know. But you look at the again projection for Texas and what they have on paper, y', all, they have the potential to be the most versatile offense in college football next year. I stressed the word versatile. I didn't say potent. I didn't say they're going to score the most points per game. It's not what this is about. But just in terms of ways that Texas can hurt you any given Saturday. I love what they did in that running back room, grabbing those two backs from a league. Brown Hollywood smothers. Those of you all that have watched the show, you've heard me talk about them both ad nauseam. All right. The other part of this run game though, for Texas that we don't talk about nearly enough, Arch Manning, he can hurt you with his legs as well. Go back and watch the A and M game. Go back and watch the Michigan game. Like he can gas you and make you pay if you don't put the proper amount of resources to defending number 16 on the ground. So you have the two P4 backs, you have arch on the ground and then you have this receiving core now which is going to make you make real deal resource decisions. You have to play too high with Cam Coleman. I say too high, too high safeties back there and that leaves less tension for Ryan Wingo. Like I love all the multiple weapons they have in this past game that should have a better chance at getting open and more time to get open here with what you would hope is an improved offensive line. That's where this all hinges for me. If the offensive line can give Arch an extra Mississippi from what they were a year ago, they're going to score a lot of points, be really good and again, be really, really versatile. And being versatile may be the name of the game in the world of new college football. I think it is, if you ask me. Reason why I say that. Now, to win a national championship, which is what Texas is judging this year on, make no mistake, it's natty or bust. If you want to win a national championship, you got to be able to win a couple of different styles of games. You got to be able to go to College Station, win a game where it's like 20 mile per hour winds or more. Then you got to go in a shootout against Ohio State, Then you got to go win another game where it's first to 24 against. I don't know. In Indiana, like you got to be able to play different styles of games. So having different styles of offense in the back pocket and have that available to you with how they could call this offense. If they all project to what we think they're going to be, sky's the limit. Sky's the absolute limit for Texas and they're only number four for us on this list. Okay, so breaking into the top three, I have Ohio State as my third best offense in all of college football. I just think those last two games really muddied the waters on the opinions about Ohio State offensively because you watched the loss to Indiana and the loss to Miami and they looked pretty similar in terms of what happened to Ohio State up front. They got bullied and what do you want me to say? It was like six sacks in each of those two games is bad. O line got their lunch eaten. Even with that being said, it sort of planted this narrative that like Julian Sane isn't that good or that mobile and the O line's not good enough. And it's like, no, they weren't good enough in those games. But I don't think that's totally true of who they're going to be over the course of this upcoming season. If anything, if you're Ohio State bringing back four or five up front, you should be saying, okay, that sucks, you got your lunch eaten. But hopefully you learn from that. Hopefully it lit a fire. Hopefully you feel some sense of urgency going into next season. Understand, we gotta be way better. We want to get to where we want to get to. We don't have time to turn it on to the Big Ten title game. It's got to be on from the jump. And so I like, they kind of got a little punch in the mouth there for those last two games because I think it's going to carry over to this year. Going back to again, the facts of this all. Julian saying completed 77% of his passes as a first year starter at Ohio State. That's not nothing. That is enormously impressive. What could he do for an encore? The best player in college football? His wide receiver. 1. So much talk around the run game for Ohio State not being good enough. And that's true. Ohio State understands that they got to be better in the run game. Got to be better up front. Po Jackson still had a thousand yards rushing as a freshman. Like, okay, we got to be better, but we're not like starting from Oklahoma territory or Bama territory. They're like the 120s. Like, they still have something there to work with. So I think they still have strides to make. That's a big reason why you saw them make. Some of the moves they made in the portal at wide receiver was to get some more explosive plays. Um, but I'm telling you, man, Ohio State, don't let those last two games define who they are in your mind's eye of what Ohio State football is going to be here in 26. I think they will be potent as all get out. Man, I can't wait to watch it. Now you're one with an NFL coordinator too. Arthur Smith. We'll see what that looks like. At number two, I got Oregon. They just. They have the coolest hand in college football at quarterback. And Dante Moore. Yes. Drew Meringer will have to duplicate what Will Stein did a year ago. Not dismissing the importance of that, but you have an extra dude on the field now who, if things are a little bit clunky or things take a second to get rolling offensively, he can make you. Right. Dante Moore can. That is like in chaos. He's not going to see anything defensively or be up against any different pass rush. That is overwhelming to him in the sense that he hasn't seen it before. Just the savviness you have at quarterback paired with all the weapons you have out wide. I don't think anybody has the correct number of resources to stop them. And we did a full like 8 or so plus minutes on Oregon's offense and why they're going to be dynamic. But like, I think that running back room is still in a great spot. I think that you look at the weapons they have out wide, that's where it becomes really interesting to see. Okay, how are you going to take all these guys away? Because I think the Corey and more will be like a Blitnikov award finalist. I think Evan Stewart, people are forgetting what he was when he was healthy. Um, you have Jamari Johnson, who's going to be a stud at tight end is force physically for them. Jeremiah, like, there's so many names. Jeremiah McClellan, Gatlinba. Like, there's so many different pieces here to where it's like, okay, how do you take them all away? And if you take them all away on the back end, you probably don't have the right numbers in the box to defend the run, which Oregon has been elita every single year since Dan Landings been the head coach there. So I think the fact that they are never going to be Caught in a blender means talent will always be in a position to be the difference. And if it comes down to talent for Oregon, not going to be a lot of games, they feel like they are at a disadvantage. Okay, so for all those reasons, Oregon, for me, number two when it comes to top 10 offense is top 10 offenses rather in college football. All right, now, number one, it's the Miami Hurricanes, man. Like, let me put it to you this way. You tell me how you're stopping Miami. They think they're three or four deep at running back. They got not one but two wide receiver ones in Malachi, Tony and Cooper Barket. You got a guy pulling the trigger for you that is at every single stop he's been at thrived and was number two in terms of passing yards last year in all of college football. And Darian Mensah, you tell me how you're stopping Miami offensively. Oh, well, that's easy, J.D. i would just go after the offensive line. Okay, cool. No, that's. That's totally fine. Four war of five coming back on the offense or being replaced on the offensive line, rather accept acceptable answer. It's Mario Cristobal and Alex Mirabal. They are not going to let that unit be the Achilles heel. Miami will reach 20 degrees in temperature as a city and freeze over. Iguana's fallen off the palm trees before that ends up being a reality. I'm just telling you, man. So you look at who the offensive coordinator is, which should be a big part of this conversation. We talk about top 10 offenses. Carson Beck gets a lot of shade thrown his way because he wasn't Cam Ward. And you know, Darian Mensah, I think most of us feel or agree is a higher caliber of talent. But Carson Beck still threw for 3,800 yards last year. Carson Beck still completed north of 70% of his passes. Carson Beck still got Miami to the doorstep of a national championship victory. Who's in charge of the offense? Shannon Dawson. Shannon Dawson is going to be able to maximize what Darian Mensah brings to the table here. If you can do all that with Carson Beck, what can you do with Darian Mensah? Again, I hate we're dunking on Carson Beck here. We're kind of throwing some strays his way. But I think the. The Carfax or the Carfax here, baby. Like with that guy running the show, that guy being Shannon Dawson, and the different kinds of quarterbacks he's been able to have success with, there's zero reason to believe that they won't still go berserk this year with with Darian Menson now into the fold his first year in Coral Gable. So there's a lot to like there. Miami for me, just based on the weaponry, based on the questions, quote unquote being the offensive line. If the question for your football team is a Mario Crystal ball offensive line, you got good questions. I think they will be the best offense in college football. I've said before, I think they may average right around 40 a game. Feel pretty confident saying that. Okay, should be noted this top 10 is not just about points per game. If it was, I'd have some other teams moved around. But I think when it's all said and done, man, these are the top 10 offenses in the sport. And number 10 to recap here for you, Texas Tech, number nine, Indiana. And number eight, Notre Dame. If it was points per game predicated, Notre Dame would be a lot higher. Make that very clear. But I love the idea of them number eight for Notre Dame, number seven, lsu, number six, Ole Miss. I'm sure they will both love that. USC at five, Texas at four, Ohio State at three, Oregon at two and the Miami Hurricanes at number one in the top 10 offenses for college football next season. So Texas was number four on that list for us. And I want to spend some more time talking about Texas here. I want to bring back the analogy of the week and the analogy of the week for us with Texas. Texas is Spider Man, y'.
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JD
What did Uncle Ben say to Peter Parker? What were his last words? Peter, with great power comes great responsibility. Hey, Sark Arch. With great roster talent comes great responsibility. Like, here's the thing. What excuse do you have if you're text this year, this year to not win the sec, it's not win a national championship. Oh, we didn't have enough weapons. Nope, that's not it. Well, but the run game last year took a second. No, no, no, it's not that. We already talked about that. Two studs carrying the rock for you. Well, the receiving court again. No, not hearing it. Well, the defense, coach, boom in the mix. Rasheed Biles in the mix. And Colin Hill. Colin Hill. I've molded him and Anthony Hill for a second. That'd be scary. Colin Simmons off the edge, taking more of a leadership role even. It sounds like what you love to hear. What excuse is there for Texas? There isn't one. You all, to be real, that's how it should be at Texas every year. With the brand power, with the resources, with the way that Steve Sarkeesian has pushed Texas back to tier one in terms of relevance in college football. That's how it should be. That's exactly how it should be. Now, here's one thing that kind of gets under talked about with Peter Parker. It wasn't just like, let me get bit by this spider. Turn around. I'm the people's champ. I'm a superhero. Saving all of, you know, New York City. It wasn't just like, powers to superhero. It wasn't that way. There were some growing pains in there. There was some growing up. To do that, Peter Parker had to. Had. Had to develop the wedge, shoot the web shooters a little bit, right? It can't be that way for Texas. Last year had to be that way for Texas. I suppose, like, last year has to be the developing web shooters kind of year. Sticking with this analogy, we don't have time this year, brother. We just. We don't. You got Ohio State, Week 2 coming to your city. You got, like, you don't have time to figure it out and figure out how you want to go about having these powers. We got to have clarity of purpose from the jump. We got to be locked and loaded mentally from the jump. And I would say this, too. I think that the clarity of purpose for Texas got crystallized from what last year was because they beat A and M and they got a campaign for, we think we're one of the top 12 teams in the country. All we did was lose to Ohio State. If we didn't play Ohio state, we'd be 10 and 2. All that was, you know, fair to say, at the end of the year. But it was all, you know, in retrospect, it was all, we didn't play our best football early. So now we're trying to campaign at the end of the year. It can't be that, like, the Vibe's got to be good from the jump. Vibes got to be at a focus place from the jump. The vibes can't be tight, because if you thought there was pressure last year, the pressure has been doubled down all since last year. Make no mistake about it. Can you be mature enough to take more pressure? Remember what last year was? Learn from it and go be better. We'll talk about it, man. We'll talk about it. We'll see. But again, for Vibes, they got to be in a good place. And Vibes are always a good place when you're rolling, when you're with Zen AI, Right. We've talked about Vibe coding a lot in our society. How about Vibecasting. All right. Zen AI is the home of Vibecasting, a new way to capture and share your conversations. A Vibecast is a conversation. Zen AI turns a vibecast into something worth sharing. Okay, so in the same way that vibe coding apps like Lovable and Claude Cowork made it possible for just about anyone to be able to do coding, you can build your big ideas in podcasting or TikTok or Reels. Whatever you using Zen AI Zen AI helps turn a conversation into something worth sharing. No production skills required. So essentially, if you want to try and up your production value but you're not so sure as how to do that, Zen AI is your help and your friend in getting that done. Zen AI is currently an invite only beta. Join the Waitlist today for a chance at early access. Go to Zen AI to sign up or head to our Show Notes for a direct link. But like I said, the clarity of purpose for Texas this year I think is kind of a weapon and it's kind of what you are able to take from last year in terms of your scars. Because last year, I mean your preseason number one, you got college game day to open the year in Columbus and Arch is supposed to be the number one overall pick in the Heisman favorite and all this and you get cut down to size there pretty quickly with that loss in the Swamp before Red River. Now you recovered and you know, scratched and clawed your way back to the playoff race but like wasn't enough. At the end of the day, lost to Georgia was kind of the case of death and Texas missed the playoff. I do think now when you look at where Texas is as a whole, both just at just the conversational level where Texas is at a hole. We're talking about nat of your bust. We're talking about how Sark's got to get him over the hump and all this, that and the other. I know there's clarity of purpose conversation for this year from what we just said of being focused on winning a national championship and that's the only thing that matters this year. It's kind of been a work in progress since Steve Sarkeesian took the job at Texas in terms of clarity of purpose. Like, I remember this so vividly and Texas fans do too. But there was a point in time where Texas still had some cultural growing up to do internally. Like I remember Bo Davis. Texas fans know where I'm going with this. Texas loses a gross game on the road to someone they shouldn't lose to. In Bo Davis at the time, the D line coach walks onto the bus and rips the entire bus, a new one, just lays into them and says, if you want to get in that portal, get in it. Basically saying, this thing is going one way. And I don't know if Texas fans remember that the same way I do, but to me, that felt like a turning point culturally for what Texas football is. Because it felt like, again, from the outside looking in, it felt like Texas was a place that the people on the roster seemingly enjoyed more of what football could do for them than playing the game itself and being excellent at the game itself and going and accomplishing things that you should accomplish. The plays like Texas, that, to me, felt like a turning point moment. And ever since then, it's felt a lot like Texas as a whole now has been working towards a year like this. Okay? And I love so much that Steve Sarkeesian and everyone involved, Brandon Harris, the gm, they have put together a roster to where when you lay your head on the pillow at night, you know you did everything that you could to have a roster that was worthy of competing for a national championship. What I just said, there is. There is. There is tons of responsibility here because you have tons of power because you have a roster that's good enough to go win it all. Like, yes, we still have to have some things, you know, formulate a certain way. We need the offensive line to be better. We need Arch to be better for sure, consistently. But on paper, is anyone saying this is going to be a massive Achilles heel for Texas? They're not good enough at this position. Nobody's saying that for good reason. And so I think when you talk about the no regret side of things, that's all you can ask for is a Texas fan at this point, right? And when you talk about how good Archmanning can be, what we said last year was, let's just see how he is when he, you know, actually gets some live bullets flying his way. Because there's a lot of pressure on this kid, and we haven't even seen him start three games yet in his career. Whatever you think about Arch Manning, though, at the end of this year, it's fair. Why? Because the filter is now fair. Last year, we were still trying to figure out what Texas was overall with their roster, and Arch was getting his sea legs. None of that is true anymore. Arch has got a full year under his belt. Arch has good enough weapons. Arch is going into another year under Shark. There is no excuses. There's no excuses. So whatever you think of Arch Manning this year, the filter is now made it. So that is a fair conversation to have with no nuance. And yeah, but like it is Arch Manning. What you see is what you get this year. He understands that. Texas understands that. But with great power, Texas comes great responsibility. Can't be the growing pains that Peter Parker had. You had those last year. It's got to be all gas, no brakes, as Sark likes to say. And they will be judged. And they want it this way. They will be judged by if they win a national championship. The plot thickens.
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JD
Explore further@range rover.com Record prediction season rolling right along here. Let's go out to South Beach. We love South Beach. For the record, had a good time for the national championship game. We were there to watch Miami play in a national title game in their home stadium. What's the record going to be though for Miami at the end of this season? Break it down right now. Before we do, make sure you're subscribed right here to the author YouTube channel. College football Nothing about college football year round and we're going to call our shot for a national championship pick here in the not too distant future. So if you want to see that, make sure you are subscribed. BetmGym has Miami's over under win total in the preseason set at 10 and a half. I said it once, I will say it again. We got some flack for saying it, so I've made sure to say it like three or four times since then. This is Mario Cristobal's best team. Argue with the wall. Now does it mean it's going to accomplish the most ever accomplished to this point in his career? Remains to be seen. But you can't sit here and have a conversation with me With a bold straight face and say, yeah, that team in 2024 was better. That team in 2025 was better. It's not now. There are different pieces that you would say may be better in certain sectors. Like the defensive line. Last year was stupid good to say this year's defensive line is going to be better. It's a bit of a stretch. Okay. Cam Ward was absolutely unconscious in 2024. To tell me that Derry man is going to be better is like, yeah, it'd be nice. It's not unfathomable, but it's a pretty bold prediction and pretty, you know, intense thing to say during the month of July. But with all the parts considered, this is going to be the best roster Mario Crystal Ball has had. Full stop again. You lost Bane and Mezador. Defense is still nasty. Defense is still full of adults like his junior senior, junior senior, junior senior. There's one underclassman projected to start from Miami on defense. It's Bryce Fitzgerald at safety. Made the play of the the playoff run to start the whole thing with that interception against A and M to seal the deal in the red zone. So you feel pretty good about him taking another step. Not inexperienced. Okay. Your quarterback, while he may not be Cam Ward. Getting Cam Ward comps and Darian Mensah, Dari Mental was second in all of college football last year in passing yards. When you watch that dude operate. I just went back and watched his game against Clemson over this course, over the course of this, this last week because I felt like it. Dude, he's just so even. Like I think you could throw him in an NFL game tomorrow, he wouldn't screw it up. He's just so, just, just even I said it before. I think he's level headed. I think he's just got all the right intangibles to be a cold blooded killer when it's go time for Miami and I cannot wait to see what he does in the Shannon Dawson offense. The weapons are off the charts. We already told you during the course of this full show. I think they're the number one offense in college football. I think they will flirt with and maybe propose to averaging 40 points a game over the course of this next season. The offensive line, I'll say it again, the offensive line is everyone's go to well, but what do they look like here? Well, they were such a brute force operation last year and now they got to replace four or five starters. That's fine if our biggest question mark is our true freshman five star freak show Jackson Kent. Well, it's going to start for us. Yeah, we'll take our lumps there. We'll see what he looks like over the course of the season. But I don't think that's really that bad of a question to have first world problems, you know, I'm saying, like, you're worried about how many TVs you have in the house, worried about what size the pool is. It's like if we're talking about pool size and how many TVs, we probably got a pretty good living situation going on, right? I think that's Miami. The other thing with Miami, before we get to the record prediction. I love so much the blend they have of dudes that tasted what last year was, playing for a national title and losing, and the dudes that are just now showing up that haven't done a thing like Darren Metzak, are going to be a massive part of what they do next year. Damon Wilson, edge defender from Missouri, had nine sacks last year in the sec. Huge part of the defense. None of those three guys had anything to do with last year's national title run. So they should all be hungry. They should all be chomping at the bit to go do something and etch their names to hurricane lore. Meanwhile, you got guys like Malachi, Tony and Mark Fletcher that are like, hey, that sucked. Getting that close last year and losing on our home turf. We got to write that wrong here, boys. I love that. I absolutely love that. Also, continuity at the coordinators. Still got Heatherman, still got Shannon Dawson, still got Mario, Crystal ball. Like, there is a lot of continuity here that understands what it's like to go on a playoff run. They've had that, that muscle memory, if you will, to go play four games in a row in the College Football Playoff and be so close. I think there is no way to overstate the importance of experience in the playoff. And Miami has that in a pretty massive way with this roster. Okay, so again, bet MGM over into win total has him at 10 and a half. What do we have, Matt, going into this year? Let's break it down game by game. Here you open up on the farm on a Friday, okay? This is just the ACC in 2026. I guess you got a game at Stanford on a Friday night to open it up. That's a win. You play Florida, game to Florida A and M, that'll be a win at Wake Forest. Wake Forest, I love you. But that's a win for Miami Central Michigan the following week. That's a win. Now the first test is At Clemson. Okay, this is still early enough in the year where Clemson is going to have some life. They are going to be frisky. Also worth noting, Clemson will have played LSU already at this point in time. I think this is a loss for Miami. All right, now I'll hand up. I am trying to account for the madness that is baked into every single college football season. I don't love the fact that Miami will have had absolutely zero test before going on the road and playing what I would imagine will be a very desperate Clemson team. I also now am trying to account for the gelling that will have to happen on the offensive line. Again, I'm not worried about it. I don't think it's going to be the end all be all for them this year. But Tom Allen, the Clemson DC is going to apply pressure, going to heat you up and I think there will be some growing pains there. So whether it's the Clemson game or somewhere else, I think there is a loss somewhere here for Miami. And the fact that it's at Clemson, to me just, I don't like it. It just has weird written all over it. So I think it's a loss at Clemson going into the bi week and then after that you play Florida State and you take your anger out on the poor Seminoles right now. And I don't know what Mike Norvell's buyout situation looks like week in, week and week in and week out. But I wouldn't be shocked if that, you know, ends up being maybe the, the final straw for Mike Norvell and Tallahassee. Neither here nor there. Get a win over Florida State, get a win over Pip, get a win at North Carolina and then you go to Notre Dame November 7th, probably crispy air. Notre Dame obviously looking to avenge what last year was with their loss at your place in Hard Rock. I think this is the game where Miami kind of reopened some eyes. Think you beat Notre Dame. And I think it's, I think it's in a fashion not saying it's a blowout. I'm not saying it's like definitive. And we're all just like, Notre Dame sucks. Miami's amazing. But I do think that Miami shows some things in this game in November where you say, okay, the things that made us nervous with the Clemson loss no longer exist. Like Miami has now found their stride. Oh, the Death Star is fully operational in Coral Gables. Here we freaking go. And it's November and they're playing their best ball. That is the key to this whole equation. Can you play your best football November to January. Like, yeah, don't screw it up in September and October, but can you play your best fall? Play your best ball at the end of the season. Okay, so that win, I think is kind of a message to the rest of the country. Get a win against Duke, get a win against Virginia Tech. Sneaky. Now that one would make me more nervous if it was in Blacksburg. I digress. But you beat Vautec, you beat Boston College to finish the year with a record of 11 and 1. I would be shocked if one loss in ACC play kept you out of the ACC title game. I'll go ahead and say right now I don't think it does. You are definitely in contention to be in the College Football playoff with an 11 record. I think that's pretty fair to say now. I think Miami fans will watch this and be like, J.D. the loss to Clemson, I thought you were, thought you were riding with the Canes here. What's going on, man? You're falling off the bandwagon. That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is I actually like Miami more with a loss early in the season going into Notre Dame game. If I had to draw it up, I would way rather Miami have tasted their own blood and, you know, tripped up and had some urgency going into the end of the season rather than them be unbeaten and we're banking on them being what Indiana was last year. I think what Indiana was last year will be an anomaly going forward in the expanded playoff era. But what I said before this segment started, this is Mario Cristobal's best team since he's gotten to Miami. The record of 11 and 1 and playing for an ACC championship would check out with that. Now you get to the playoff, we'll see what the draw is, we'll see what the path is, all those things. But based on what they have on this roster, don't be shocked if they have a weird slip up somewhere along the way. But I think 11 wins is a good place to, to project Miami. And I think that them playing their best ball going into the end of the season is actually what's most important and a big thing that I'm making on being true of this Hurricanes football team. So 111 for the Canes ACC title birth locked up Canes fans. You let me know your notes in the comment section. Excuse me. Okay, let's move on here. Miami played Indiana last year in the national title game. What's Indiana's record going to be when it's all said and done at BET MGM. Hoosiers have an over under of 10 and a half wins in the preseason. Should be noted, Indiana hasn't lost a football game since the year 2024 when they lost that playoff game in South Bend against the Fighting Irish who actually ended up playing for a national title themselves. Curtion Eddy last time he lost a home game as the Indiana Hoosiers head coach. Never. So take of that as you will. I think two things can be true when you assess Indiana going in the next season. I think you can like the overall roster actually more than last year. And you can also wonder if the AI secret sauce is still there in Bloomington because Fernando Mendoza ended up being awesome. I don't think anybody had him tabbed as the number one overall pick when he committed to Indiana. I think Josh Hoover and his production should get you more excited than what Mendoza was at a jumping off point in the preseason. Nick Marsh, like I love Elijah Surratt, I love Omar Cooper. Nick Marsh, for my money, has more ability than both those guys that get you fired up the offensive line they feel great about. So like overall at a roster level, what Signetti has replaced some of the quote unquote losses with hard to argue. At the same time, the question I just posed was what made Indiana so elite last year? Yeah, the talent was a big part of it, but the way Indiana played together and the way they didn't make mistakes and the way they just seemingly were without any flinch ever. That was why they were such a tough out. That was why they went 16 and oh, the only team ever in the history of the 12 team playoff to win off of a buy like that has a lot to do with it. So you look at what they lost, 56% production is back from last year. So essentially half your team's production is going to be new or a little bit less than that. They took 17 transfers. Josh Hoover has 31 starts under his belt. For context here, Fernando Mendoza showed up at Indiana with 19 starts. Reason why I mentioned that. I'm a little bit curious as to how much you're able to teach an old dog new tricks now going into the portal, I was pounding the jump for Josh Hoover before the entire market, you know, was out there in terms of all the quarterbacks that were available. I was saying I think Josh Hoover is probably the guy that I would take actually, because he has that many starts. He's got a lot of production, he's seen a lot of live bullets. But now you're talking about Josh Hoover up against the question of is he good enough to go do what Fernanda Mendoza did and lead this team to a national championship? Fernando Mendoza, I think was pretty malleable coming with 19 starts. Had a lot that he was still open to learning. If Josh Hoover is able to take the coaching like Fernando Mendoza did, sky's the limit because there's not a lot that Josh Hoover can't do that Fernanda Mendoza could do. Now, I'm not saying Josh Hoover is the number one overall pick and win the Heisman Trophy. I'm just saying in terms of running this offense, Josh Hoover can make virtually all the throws that Fernando Mendoza could, in my opinion. Okay, here's what I love about Indiana next year. Getting choked up thinking about it. Here's what I love about Indiana going into next year, college football. We make a lot about the rosters. That's fair in a lot of ways though. Year in and year out, it's about the adults running the show. Ryan Day at Ohio State, Kirby at Georgia. I think you now put Landing and Oregon in that conversation. Steve Sarkeesian at Texas. It's about the adults in the room that get your 18 to 22 year olds, or in Indiana's case, 18 to 24 year olds playing at the proper intensity level. With the right plan, with the right mindset, all those things. I think Indiana has the best trio of adults in the country in charge, from head coach down to coordinator Kirk Signetti running the show. He wins. Google him. Bryant Haynes, your DC and Mike Shanahan, your oc. It is not a coincidence. This group has won a lot together. I still feel great about this group and I think most people should too. All right, so let's get to the record prediction here. Pretty workable schedule here for the Hoosiers. North Texas, no more Drew, Mester maker. He's now at Oklahoma State along with the rest of unt. It feels like that's a win for Indiana. You beat Howard. You beat the Red Grimaces of Western Kentucky, Northwestern, maybe Chip Kelly and Aiden Child's a little bit frisky, but I don't think it'll be anything that throws Indiana off their pivot. That's a win at Rutgers. That's a win at Nebraska. That's a win. Now then, you host Ohio State. Remember, Kirsten Eddy has never lost a game in Bloomington. I think he does here. And to me it's about Matt Patricia versus Josh Hoover. I think Matt Patricia is going to do a lot of things to throw Josh Hoover off of his pivot I also think it's interesting to note that Ohio State will have some pretty good reps under the heavy bar with who they've played. They will have played Texas, Illinois and Iowa. The toughest game for Indiana before that will be at Nebraska. So like can you, can you get ready to play in Ohio State with that schedule? I don't know Ransby scene but I'll leave Ohio State there. I think Ohio State also to look at how last year's game went. It's a player two here, a player to there. You wonder if no Mendoza changes that equation. All right, so we'll go ahead and put Ohio State as a loss for the Hoosiers at Michigan. You bounce back with a win. You beat Minnesota go into the bi week. Then you play USC and those y' all that have watched the USC preview already or prediction for that team, you already know where I'm going with this. I don't like only two returning starters in the secondary for Indiana. I still am a little bit leery as to the Josh Hoover turnover issues being 100% fixed up. You got a good D.C. and Gary Patterson. I think you dropped that game. So you've lost to Ohio State and you've lost to usc. Calling two home losses for Indiana. I'll be real. I don't like it. I don't feel good about it. I don't get great REM sleep at night saying that. But that's just. I think USC is going to be a wagon this year, man. I really do. I really do. So I think that's a loss for Indiana. You finished the year at Washington and then Purdue now going to Seattle be tough place to play now the Mon Williams when he's on like it is it is something to watch dude as a highlight reel. I mean Seattle at one point in time was I think the the leading home college football playoff win streak. Don't matter. Hoosiers get it done. I don't trust Washington as far as I can throw them and I can't throw Washington all that far. So it's a loss for the Huskies and then old Oak and Bucket. God bless Purdue, but that's a win for Indiana. So you finish with 10 and 2. You should be back in the College Football Playoff. We'll see what happens with the Big Ten championship race. We'll unpack that when it's time for prediction season. Here's the thing man. I've said this a couple times, but I'll say it again. It comes down to what you bet on. Do you Think that Indiana is going to regress and fall off the face of the earth and miss the College Football Playoff? Or do you think Signetti is going to keep doing what Signetti has done since getting to Bloomington and they make the playoff for the third year in a row? It used to be a little bit more easy to be cynical and say, oh, Indiana is going to be a one hit wonder than they won the national championship. I don't feel good betting against Indiana at this point. Even with two losses, which I don't feel amazing about. I don't feel good betting against Indiana and betting against that trio of adults in the room and Haynes, Shanahan and Signetti. So it all comes down to for Indiana, can this team just make it about this team? And what I mean by that is there's going to be so much talk, especially early in the year when Indiana inevitably starts out, what, 1, 234-506-01-23456 and oh, there's gonna be a lot of talk about, well, how does this team compare to last year's team? How does Mendoza compare to Hoover? Well, look at Hoover's number. Look at what Mendoza was doing. It's like you gotta just have the blinders on. You gotta block out all the noise. I've said it before, Josh Hoover, throw away the iPhone if you have one. Go get a flip phone. Like, we just gotta be as present as humanly possible because it's proven that if we buy into Signetta's way of doing things, we win a lot of games when all the games. Actually, for those of you keeping track at home last year, I think this Indiana team to say it's not possible for them to go back to back, I think you're kidding yourself. But a lot of it, it's new for Indiana, will be about, can you block out all the noise, can you block out all the extra hype what you did last year and just be about this year's team? So Indiana, 10 and 2 in the playoff will unpack the Big Ten title race in the future. But I think that's a very fair number to put on Indiana going into next season. So we'll finish up here with one more Big Ten team. Hey, what's Penn State's record going to be this year? Bet MGM has the over under win total at eight and a half for the nitty Lions and year one under Matt Campbell. Sometimes you just got to change the vibe up, man. It's not that the old vibe was bad, but sometimes like you play the Same music at a party, the same playlist. You just, you got to cut something else on. And I say that to say, like James Franklin, it just, it kind of had run its course. It kind of went stale. It wasn't good for anybody anymore. Like if Penn State had won 10 games last year and they had lost the games they weren't supposed to, or they lost all the big games they were hopefully supposed to get over the hump and win, it would have still been the same uncomfortable bad vibes for James Franklin and for the folks in Happy Valley would have been unhappy Valley, to put it simply. So as we're all very well aware, Penn State has indeed changed the vibe up here with Matt Campbell as the new head coach. And they've changed the roster up quite a bit with 24 transfers following James or following Matt Campbell. Excuse me. From Iowa State to Penn State. So the Penn State Cyclones, man, again, the over under. The over under at Ben GM is eight and a half wins. It is a very high floor group, Very high floor group. A lot of continuity within this group. I mean, Taylor Mouser, being your OC from Iowa State, you also feel good about him and Rocco Beck working together. Rocco Becket, enormously experienced. I don't doubt the floor. I question openly, I wonder openly about how close they're able to get to that ceiling and how high is that ceiling? Because Iowa State last year, good football team against FBS opponents, scored over 33 times last year. Now you won a lot of games. But to go be a team that makes the playoff your first year, go be a team that makes a run in the playoff. As I think what Matt Campbell was hired to do here, whether it's this year, in the future, you got to find a way to win those games where it's a boxing match. Like I'm pretty confident Penn State can line it up in 13 personnel and win a wrestling match with just about anybody else in college football if they get in that kind of game. And defense. But what about the games where we're a little bit more at arm's reach and we got a win throwing punches, we got a win throwing 40 yard strikes, we got to win. Scored over 30 points a game. Just look at the quarterbacks that, that Penn State's going to play this year at Northwestern. Listen, I don't think Northwestern is going to be a Big Ten title contending team, but Aiden Childs and Chip Kelly, we'll see. Be fun. If nothing. We'll see. You at least have to have that in the bag. If you want to go, you know, beat a team like Northwestern, at least have the potential to go score 30 points. USC, y' all that have watched the show, you know, I feel about them at Michigan, who knows, if Bryce Underwood and Jason Beck get together and do some good things, maybe you got to score 30 there. Washington, Damon Williams, we'll see Maryland, even Maryland's got a dude at quarterback, Malik Washington can sling it, right? So I'm not saying you got to have it every single game. I'm just saying when put in that position where, hey, Penn State, we got to score 30 or we're losing this game. Do you have the chops to get that done? And I understand last year Rocco back was dinged up a lot of the year. So if you think that changes that number, more power to you. I'm just saying that has to be available to Penn State if they want to be a playoff team in year one. Are they? Will they? What's the record? Let's break it down right now. First game of the year, Marshall dubbed at Temple. Funny enough, this game's at Temple. That's a win. Buffalo win, Wisconsin. Frisky, desperate Colton Joseph back there making plays. Penn State wins at Northwestern. I told you, I like Aiden Chiles. I like Griffin Wildy. Real college football fans know about Griffin Wildy, man. Ed Sheeran out there making plays win for, for Penn State. Now you play usc. This should be a wideout. USC has to win this game. USC just needs this game. And I am believing that a, a team in USC that has more continuity here top to bottom, should win this game against their old DC Dan Lynn. I think that Penn State drops that one, then you turn around, you're playing Michigan. Now important to note, Michigan gets a buy before this game. The fact that you got USC in a wide out, then you got to go on the road. If you drop the game to usc, maybe you say Penn State bounces back. I just, I wonder how emotionally drained that would be for Penn State. I think you dropped the game to Michigan, so you've lost USC and Michigan in back to back games. I do think the lead up there with Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, Northwestern doesn't do them any favors to get ready for those games. Think of that what you want. But Afromission got a buy. Then you play Purdue, that'll be a win. Then you go to Seattle again. I am very curious what the, the offense's chops are at this point in the year because with it being on the road and I've openly questioned them on Williams I just said in the last segment, I don't trust Washington as far as I can throw them. I still think they're frisky. I still think they're potent. I still think if you catch them on the wrong day, you're going to have to score 30 to keep pace with them. I think Penn State drops this game. I just. I think that in the. The quarterback clash there, if it was at Penn State, I think I'd feel differently. But with it being on the road at Seattle, I think you dropped that one. And I just think Damon Williams is too liable to go off in a game like that. So I'll go ahead and take Damon Williams and Washington to win that one. Finish the year strong with a win over Minnesota. You beat Rutgers. You beat Maryland. You finished nine and three. She hit the over. But I think nine and three probably leaves you out of the College Football Playoff. Here's what I would just say. As much as it feels like a missed opportunity, if you're Penn State and that James Franklin, with that kind of schedule, probably would have won 10 games, I hear you understand you hired Matt Campbell to build something sustainable. So I'm not telling you, be happy with nine and three. I'm not saying that's okay. In fact, I would feel the opposite. I'd say, how do we miss the playoff with a schedule like that? What are we doing here? You hired Matt Campbell to build something sustainable. To build something sustainable, guess what? You got to have a good foundation. Give it a sec. This guy built a winner at Iowa State. I promise you, it's harder to build a winner in Ames, Iowa, than it is at State College. Pennsylvania, give it a second. I said it about Kyle Whittingham. I said it about Mike Elko. I'll say the same thing about Matt Campbell with how he coaches and how he wins. A lot of times it's in the margins. It's culture. It is grittiness. Things that Penn State will have this year, especially with the transfers they bring in. It may take more than one year for you to see the peak of that, for you to see the best version of that, because 24 transfers is great. It's not the entire roster. How quickly does this team look like Matt Campbell's team and play like Matt Campbell's team remains to be seen. I say that not to give you hopium or to water down our prediction. I'm just saying 9 and 3. While it feels disappointing, I still think the future in State College is really bright. And I still think that a year like this shouldn't discourage you with the hire you made in Matt Campbell. So, Penn State fans, I'm sure you will, but let us know in the comment section what you think Penn State will achieve in 2026 when it comes to a record of sorts. All right. Hey, appreciate y' all making the show what it is, man. Again next Tuesday, we will be in Tampa, Florida, at SC Media Days. Already got a lot of interviews lined up for you for quarterbacks and coaches and different people in the media. We're fired up, man. It is again beginning to feel like, look like, smell like college football season. It's been college football season here all year long on this channel, which another reason to be subscribed. But we're fired up, man. Fired up for what's to come and fired up for y' all making the show what it is. We're for Kato on the ones and the twos for myself. TR Appreciate y'. All. Love y'. All. We'll keep this party rolling and we will see y' all next time.