The HC Commodities Podcast

Episode: “A Post-Fundamentals World? London Argus Conference Live Event”

Host: Paul Chapman
Guests: Saad Rahim (Chief Economist, Trafigura), Nick Kumleben (Director, Greenmantle), David Fyfe (Chief Economist, Argus Media), Kurt Chapman (Director, Levmet)
Date: October 7, 2025

Episode Overview

This special live episode, recorded at an Argus Media event, tackles the core question: Are commodity markets operating in a new “post-fundamentals” world? The panel—comprising leading economists and strategists—discusses whether price drivers, risk, and opportunity in commodity trading are now less about market fundamentals and more about geopolitical, social, and political forces. The conversation is wide-ranging, energetic, and rich in perspective, drawing on recent history, trading experiences, structural shifts, and a look ahead at the skills and strategies needed for success in this volatile landscape.

Key Discussion Points

1. The State of Volatility: Fundamental vs. Geopolitical Drivers

[01:44–07:25]

• Market Volatility Isn't What It Seems:

  • Saad Rahim explains that while the news flow and social media might suggest rampant volatility, standard measures (especially for oil and copper) show relatively muted movements—stable price ranges, with more dramatic dislocations occurring momentarily (01:44).
    • “People would look at the trading industry and say... there’s been all these announcements, changes in flows. But... if it’s just waiting for the next tweet, then that’s very hard to actually put into practice, particularly if you’re starting to see changes.” – Saad Rahim [02:35]

• Geopolitics: More Noise Than Disruption (for Now):

  • Nick Kumleben notes that geopolitical shocks (Russia, Iran, etc.) since 2022 have created headlines and policy noise, but have not—at least in volume terms—deeply disrupted flows. The notable exception is the evolving US-Saudi relationship (03:55).
    • “You look at Russian exports since February 2022—it’s hard to see a war in there.” – Nick Kumleben [03:57]

• Bad Volatility and Its Effects on Traders:

  • Kurt Chapman stresses that traders can typically ride directional volatility, but the current intraday volatility—rooted in political uncertainties and abrupt policy shifts—is far harder to position around, causing many to step back or change strategies (05:33).
    • “You put a position on... and then you find within minutes, you can’t take the stress that the price move would indicate and you get out.” – Kurt Chapman [06:12]

2. Structural vs. Cyclical Change: Is This a New Era?

[09:45–19:15]

• Resilient Markets Amid Upheaval:

  • Saad Rahim highlights how, despite events from Covid to Iranian drone strikes, commodities continued to flow—suggesting adaptation and resilience rather than breakdown (11:02).
    • “If you’d said five years ago... Iran gets bombed... that would’ve sent you up $10. Instead... the market said ‘Okay, we can adjust for it.’” – Saad Rahim [11:23]

• Cold War II and Decade-Long Cycles:

  • Nick Kumleben frames the world as structurally different, likening the present to the start of a new 'Cold War II' with the US and China as main antagonists (12:55).
    • “If you believe... there’s a Cold War II framework that started with the election of Donald Trump, that Cold War began with Trump.” – Nick Kumleben [12:58]
  • Regional dynamics (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran) add layers of structural risk that may persist for decades.

• Cycles That Last a Generation:

  • David Fyfe points out that even cycles can last 20–30 years, and the big swing toward government intervention isn’t unprecedented—recalling times of strong state roles in industrial and energy policy (15:22).
    • “A cycle can be 20 or 30 years, right? We have... much greater government intervention... That is a pendulum that swings.” – David Fyfe [15:25]

3. How Trading Strategies Are Evolving

[24:07–32:09]

• Rise in Political Risk Awareness:

  • Nick Kumleben observes a greater demand for political risk analysis inside trading houses, especially younger traders who haven’t had to manage such risks before (24:36).

    • “You’re certainly seeing much bigger in-house teams from some of the top trading firms in DC, Brussels, and elsewhere.” – Nick Kumleben [24:37]

• Large vs. Small Players:

  • Kurt Chapman and Saad Rahim agree that scale and asset ownership matter more than ever; large firms can diversify risk and exploit physical market connections, while small players have to seek out less risky strategies like options, avoid front-end volatility, or step back (27:10).
    • “The larger trading houses... have moved into assets... If you’re a smaller boutique trading company... you probably move a little away from the front end toward the back end of the curve.” – Kurt Chapman [27:13]

• The Shift to “Antifragility”:

  • Saad Rahim outlines Trafigura's strategy to not just be resilient but “antifragile”—seeking to grow stronger through turmoil by investing in flexible assets, financing, and organizational mindset (28:54).
    • “Our new CEO... his view is it’s one thing to be resilient and robust, but it’s another to really think about being antifragile.” – Saad Rahim [29:02]

4. Infrastructure, Data, and Transparency

[30:29–32:59]

• Need for Better Information:
  • David Fyfe asserts the growing need for high-fidelity, up-to-date infrastructure data—especially as security of supply and market intervention moves up the agenda, but transparency is getting harder in some regions (30:57).
    • “We need more information on infrastructure... the true state of infrastructure. The problem is in some cases this is considered state secret.” – David Fyfe [31:00]

5. Lessons from History – Cycles or Something New?

[32:09–34:41]

• Historical Analogies—And Warnings:

  • Nick Kumleben warns that pessimistic lessons from the past (protectionism under Lincoln, McKinley, Trump) led to higher costs and at times, global conflict (32:59).
    • “The lesson of Lincoln and McKinley is not that we’re headed for peace time.” – Nick Kumleben [34:15]
  • He also reminds us that “frozen” conflicts (e.g., Korea) can last decades, effectively becoming the new status quo for trading and investment (34:20).

• Internal Pressures:

  • Saad Rahim notes rising within-country political risks, such as polarization and inequality, as additional destabilizers (34:41).

6. Competitive Landscape: Talent, Scale, and the Role of Hedge Funds

[35:09–43:05]

• Hedge Funds: Blend or Exit?

  • Kurt Chapman describes how hedge funds, after a boom during directional volatility (COVID and Ukraine), are now pivoting—merging quant strategies with physical exposure to stay competitive, but also facing new barriers (36:09).
    • “We’re seeing a blending of both the physical trading community and the quantitative trading community to find some competitive advantage somewhere in between.” – Kurt Chapman [37:38]

• Is the Moat Deepening for Giants?

  • Saad Rahim notes that large trading houses (e.g., Trafigura, Vitol) have deepened their competitive moats through years of asset acquisition, credit line development, and relationships—adding barriers to entry for new or small players (39:30).
    • “When I joined Trafigura... we were trading 2.5 million barrels a day... now, roughly 7... not just us growing our market share, our peers too. The market hasn't tripled in size. The number of participants has not gotten bigger and if anything has gotten less—but we've built this business over 30 plus years.” – Saad Rahim [39:34]
  • David Fyfe cautions that while regional “shadow trading” has arisen (due to Russian sanctions), ultimately global scale and reach will likely determine the winners (41:24).
    • “You can talk about reshoring manufacturing... you can’t really talk about reshoring access to commodities. It is the ultimate global business.” – David Fyfe [42:07]

• Access to Capital as King:

  • Kurt Chapman sums up: “[T]he large trading companies have a lot of capital... They have the ability to finance themselves... because they have the money to do so.” [43:01]
  • Talent is important, but capital is decisive when volatility and barriers rise.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If it’s just waiting for the next tweet, then that’s very hard to actually put into practice...” — Saad Rahim [02:35]
• “You look at Russian exports since February 2022—it’s hard to see a war in there.” — Nick Kumleben [03:57]
• “Markets re-balance through the medium of price and we have seen that.” — David Fyfe [07:43]
• “Not just resilient and robust, but... antifragile.” — Saad Rahim [29:02]
• “We’re seeing a blending of both the physical trading community and the quantitative trading community...” — Kurt Chapman [37:38]
• “You can’t really talk about reshoring access to commodities. It is the ultimate global business.” — David Fyfe [42:07]

Segments & Timestamps

• 00:00–01:44 Introduction & setup of main theme
• 01:44–07:25 What’s really driving volatility? Fundamental vs. geopolitical, trader strategies
• 07:40–09:45 How traders adjust to shifting policy and volatility
• 09:45–19:15 Is today’s volatility cyclical or structural? Are we in a new era?
• 19:15–24:07 How supply chains, policy, and resiliency have changed
• 24:07–32:09 Adapting skills, team structures, data, and intelligence—big vs. small firms
• 32:09–34:41 Lessons from historical cycles and analogies
• 35:09–43:05 Hedge fund evolution, competitive moats, capital, and talent

Tone & Language

• The panel uses accessible but informed language, with a pragmatic, sometimes wry tone. The overarching message: markets are resilient, but the rules of engagement are shifting and demand new skills, scale, and adaptability.

Summary Conclusion

Commodity trading has entered a period where market fundamentals are necessary, but not always sufficient. Geopolitics, political risk, and policy volatility now sit at the heart of strategy, risk, and opportunity. Scale, asset ownership, capital access, and adaptive teams have never been more crucial, and both new entrants and established players must blend old and new skills to thrive. For commodity professionals, this means embedding political and policy awareness at the core of their operations and preparing for cycles measured in decades—not months.