The HC Commodities Podcast:

Salt, Cod and Commodities at the Center of History

Guest: Mark Kurlansky (award-winning author)
Host: Paul Chapman (HC Group)
Date: October 14, 2025

Episode Overview

In this engaging conversation, Paul Chapman welcomes renowned author and journalist Mark Kurlansky to explore how essential commodities—such as salt, cod, and paper—have shaped human history, international relations, and modern society. The episode delves into the powerful role commodities play in trade, cooperation, conflict, and innovation, drawing connections to contemporary issues like tariffs, globalization, and the energy transition. Kurlansky also discusses his philosophy on free trade, offers historical anecdotes, shares thoughts on technological change (including AI), and teases his upcoming book on lobsters.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Why Commodities as a Lens for History

• Commodities Define Society and Trade:
  • Trade is fundamental to the story of civilization; commodities drive trade, thus shaping nations, power, conflict, and cooperation.
  • "Trade defines the world...relations between nations, peace and war and everything else is directly related to trading commodities." – Mark Kurlansky [02:05]
• Salt as an Example:
  • Before refrigeration, international trade in food was impossible without salt, making it critical for economies and the locations of towns (e.g., “-wich” as in Norwich, near salt pans).
  • "You didn’t have an international economy at all if you didn’t have salt. That’s how fundamental it was." – Mark Kurlansky [02:05]

Commodities as Connectors and Dividers

• Trade as Foundation for Cooperation:
  • Global commodity trade has historically built cooperation and international institutions.
  • The Crusades, while often framed in religious terms, also opened Europe and the Middle East to each other's products and markets.
    "People rarely look at the Crusades in that way, but the whole relationship started with the Crusades and learning about these things." – Mark Kurlansky [04:45]
• Commodities and Conflict:
  • While commodities connect nations, competition for scarce resources frequently fuels conflict, as with the "cod wars" between Iceland and Europe.
  • Free trade can promote cooperation; tariffs and competition often lead to animosity or war.

Free Trade, Tariffs, and Globalization

• Free Trade vs. Protectionism:
  • Kurlansky, like Chapman, supports free trade as a force for global cooperation and prosperity. "Free trade works." – Mark Kurlansky [12:48]
  • Tariff impositions are causing major disruptions in commodity and fish trade, changing decades-old relationships and increasing uncertainty.
  • Historically, protectionist policies (e.g., Richard III's attempts to ban imports) have been detrimental and swiftly reversed. "There is this tie in between nationalism and opposing imports, which is a historic thing that’s gone forever." – Mark Kurlansky [10:49]
• Current and Coming Impacts:
  • The full effects of current and proposed tariffs have yet to be realized, with unpredictable impacts on both producers and consumers. "We haven’t felt the full effects yet...everyone...has not yet figured out how they’re going to deal with it." – Mark Kurlansky [08:52]
  • Trade agreements like NAFTA did not devastate U.S. jobs as often claimed; jobs would likely have moved regardless, but free trade enabled continued U.S. supply to manufacturers abroad.

Resource Extraction and Environmental Change

• Resource Extraction's Dark Side:
  • Historical overexploitation: "What New York did to its oyster beds..." [14:47]
  • Kurlansky sees rising despair regarding resource management due to climate change, which has upended assumptions about fisheries and resource management. "I felt more optimistic 10 years ago. I feel in complete despair today." – Mark Kurlansky [15:38]
  • Fisheries are especially impacted by complex changes in ocean conditions—overfishing is only one part of a more intricate ecological puzzle.

Commodities, Technology, and Innovation

• Paper as Both Commodity and Technology:

  • Paper differs from cod/salt: it's technology-based, widely producible, and not resource-constrained. "The nice thing about that is that anybody can have paper." – Mark Kurlansky [17:39]
  • The "technology fallacy": New technology rarely eliminates old; rather, it increases choices (e.g., ebooks didn't replace physical books). "Technology at its best expands the possibilities. It doesn’t limit them." – Mark Kurlansky [18:18]

• Technology’s Societal Role:

  • Adoption depends on needs; innovations only take off if they solve real problems (the case for paper, AI, or the printing press).
  • AI and other advances may unlock new productivity (legal work, information synthesis), but can be overhyped or misapplied (e.g., poor translations). "AI translations are terrible." – Mark Kurlansky [22:55]

• Declining but Persistent Commodities:

  • Commodities like paper may shrink in total use but remain valuable—especially for those who endure in the trade. "There'll be four of us left, but we'll do just great." – Mark Kurlansky (quoting a paper trader) [27:23]
  • Paper remains vital for privacy, resilience, and secure communication, as evidenced by public figures like Snowden or Vladimir Putin relying solely on it. "Paper is the safest communication. If you want to do something safely, don’t do it on a computer." – Mark Kurlansky [28:55]

Commodity Life Cycles and the Energy Transition

• Commodity Booms, Busts, and the Lobster Phenomenon:

  • Lobsters are booming now in North America (USA, Canada), partially due to the decline of cod (predators) and climate shifts, but future sustainability is uncertain. "If cod comes back, that would be sort of bad news for lobsters. But unfortunately, cod isn’t coming back." – Mark Kurlansky [24:37]
  • All fisheries and species are affected by unpredictable environmental and ecological changes.

• Energy Transition and Geopolitics:

  • As energy becomes more local (rooftop solar, nuclear, renewables), traditional interdependence from fossil fuels may wane, leading to profound global shifts.
  • New energy technologies will alter the global competitive landscape; regions that fail to innovate risk losing their economic edge.

Free Trade, Labor, and the Environment

• Progress and Pitfalls:
  • Trading with nations with poor labor or environmental standards gives leverage to improve those standards—boycotts remove influence. "By trading with them, you’re putting yourself in a better position to get them to do something about it. If you boycott their goods, you have nothing to say about what they do." – Mark Kurlansky [14:12]

The Future of Commodities and Society

• Optimism about Trade—Despite Setbacks:

  • Despite short-term pain from tariffs or disruptions, Kurlansky believes free trade will endure because it's economically and socially necessary. "One of my big flaws is that I tend to be an optimist...this tariff system is going to be a disaster, and everybody’s going to say, no, let’s stop this." – Mark Kurlansky [31:33]
  • However, restoring lost international trust and trade relations can take years.

• Societal Change and Technology Adoption:

  • Innovations leading the energy transition (like solar or wind) are more about technology than new fuels. Places that do not embrace or innovate may be left behind.
  • The shift toward “compute power” (AI, data centers) may become more significant than traditional manufacturing outputs.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Salt and Trade:

  • "You didn’t have an international economy at all if you didn’t have salt. That’s how fundamental it was." – Mark Kurlansky [02:05]

• On Free Trade and Tariffs:

  • "No, we haven’t felt the full effects yet...the whole relationship has changed." – Mark Kurlansky [08:52]
  • "There is this tie in between nationalism and opposing imports, which is a historic thing that’s gone forever." – Mark Kurlansky [10:49]
  • "Free trade works." – Mark Kurlansky [12:48]

• On the Technology Fallacy:

  • "Technology at its best expands the possibilities. It doesn’t limit them." – Mark Kurlansky [18:18]

• On Fisheries and Climate Change:

  • "I felt more optimistic 10 years ago. I feel in complete despair today." – Mark Kurlansky [15:38]
  • "Scientists can’t really say for sure why lobsters are booming right now...you also can’t say how long it will last or what it means for the future." – Mark Kurlansky [25:39]

• On the Endurance of Paper:

  • "Paper is the safest communication. If you want to do something safely, don’t do it on a computer." – Mark Kurlansky [28:55]

Highlighted Segments & Timestamps

• [02:05] The role of salt and commodities in the foundation of trade and civilization
• [04:45] The Crusades as an underappreciated driver of East-West trade and cultural exchange
• [08:52] Tariffs, trade disruptions, and their impacts on modern commodities markets
• [10:49] Historical cycles of free trade and protectionism; Richard III's restrictive import policies
• [14:12] Trade, labor, the environment, and international influence
• [15:38] Despair over resource management in the face of climate change
• [18:18] The technology fallacy and why some innovations succeed, others fail
• [24:37] Lobster booms, cod busts, and the unpredictability of the food web
• [27:23] The resilience of commodities, the “last merchant standing” theory, and why it’s flawed
• [28:55] Paper as a secure, durable technology in the digital age
• [31:33] Kurlansky’s optimism about the eventual restoration of free trade
• [33:22] The energy transition as technological, not just resource, disruption

Books & Forthcoming Work

• New Book:
  • Mark Kurlansky is working on a forthcoming book about lobsters, drawing on personal experience from his New England upbringing.

Tone & Style

Kurlansky’s tone is conversational, thoughtful, occasionally wry, and informed by deep historical context. Chapman navigates with curiosity and openness, prompting both practical analysis and broad philosophical reflection.

This episode is a rich exploration not just of commodities but of the complex web of trade, technology, ecology, and human behavior that shapes our world. Essential listening for anyone seeking to understand where we've been—and where we're headed.