The HC Commodities Podcast

Episode: The Donroe Doctrine and Commodities (Emergency Podcast)

Host: Paul Chapman (HC Group) | Guest: Nick Kumleben (Director, Greenmantle)
Date: January 10, 2026

Overview

In this emergency episode, Paul Chapman is joined by geopolitical risk expert Nick Kumleben to unpack the rapid developments in Venezuela, the articulation of the so-called "Donroe Doctrine", and to analyze their immediate and long-term implications for the global commodities sector. The conversation delves deep into the motives behind US intervention, the intersection of geopolitics and commodity flows, and the evolving risk landscape that commodities professionals must now confront.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background: US Intervention in Venezuela

• US Motives Are Multifaceted (02:02)

  • Migration Control: Stemming the tide of migrants from Venezuela to the US southern border was a key driver.
  • Strategic Rivalry: Venezuela’s role as a forward base for Russia, China, and Cuba—raising acute concerns for US interests.
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (02:02):
    “The US wants Venezuela, first and foremost, to stabilize such that fewer migrants end up at the US southern border… The second relevance is, of course, Venezuela as a forward operating base in the Western Hemisphere for Russia and China and as the key partner for the Cuban regime.”

• Oil as Rationale—Political Sales Pitch or Policy Driver? (03:29, 04:59)

  • The “oil” justification is seen as a politically expedient message to the American public, though fundamentally less significant due to Venezuela's infrastructure challenges.
  • Quote – Paul Chapman (03:29):
    “The sell to President Trump and his sell to the nation has been about the oil… but people in the oil industry quite rightly know that no new oil is going to flow from Venezuela anytime soon, given the degradation of the infrastructure there.”

2. Mechanics of the Intervention: Commodities Sector Impacts

• Short-Term Oil Market Moves (04:59, 06:39)

  • The US is moving to control Venezuelan oil exports, redirecting flows and using releases from storage to impact domestic prices.
  • Strategic seizure and redirection of Venezuela’s oil can impact US gasoline prices temporarily but does not change long-term market structure.
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (04:59):
    "The US can affect the WTI price and thus the gasoline price in the near term through taking control of Venezuelan oil exports, directing them to the Gulf Coast when they previously had largely flowed to Asia and to China specifically."

• Role of International Oil Traders (07:59)

  • Private trading houses are deeply involved, facilitating the management, marketing, and escrow of Venezuelan oil under US sanctions oversight.
  • The arrangement mirrors the Iran "escrow account" approach from prior years—money is held at arm’s length until political conditions are met.

3. Scenarios: Political and Commodities Market Outcomes

• US Working With Existing Regime: A Temporary Necessity (11:00, 12:55)

  • The current Venezuelan power structure remains initially, as abrupt regime change risks collapse and a humanitarian crisis.
  • However, real investment and structural rebuilding—especially in oil—will require a future, legitimate and stable regime.
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (12:55):
    "For this plan to work, you need not only a much more pro-market government, but you need one that is in Venezuela on a legitimate basis and one that has a shelf life that extends beyond the Trump administration."

• Popular Sentiment Within Venezuela (16:08)

  • Absence of open protest is due to regime repression, not popular support.
  • Widespread desire for change persists, evidenced by past electoral results and mass emigration.

4. Defining the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ in Practice

• Comparison to Monroe/Roosevelt Corollaries (18:17, 18:49)

  • The new US policy asserts a "Trump corollary"—the right to enforce intervention in its hemisphere in cases of “chronic wrongdoing.”
  • Three working criteria for US action:
    1. Chronic wrongdoing
    2. Geopolitical relevance
    3. Scale ("big enough to matter")
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (18:53):
    "Chronic wrongdoing sits in the eye of the beholder… you probably need three conditions for intervention: chronic wrongdoing, geopolitical relevance… and a country that’s big enough to matter."

• Market Implications: Bloc Formation and Volatility (20:33, 21:34)

  • Accentuates the bifurcation of commodity trade between US and China-led blocs.
  • Raises risk of market fragmentation and government-driven volatility; undermines the "free market" paradigm.
  • Quote – Paul Chapman (21:34):
    "All of the constructs around risk management and investment… you become just unable to move, utter stasis because the risks are just so unknowable."

5. Global Spillover and Geostrategic Mirroring

• China’s Perspective and Taiwan Parallel (23:34, 24:43)

  • The US acts assertively only in regions where adversaries cannot robustly counter.
  • The doctrine could legitimize similar assertive actions by China in its own hemisphere—e.g., Taiwan.
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (24:43):
    “From a Chinese perspective… unless you think the US is going to call your bluff, you have more rather than less ground to stand on.”

• Greenland Thought Experiment (27:29)

  • Greenland as a resource-rich, geopolitically relevant territory doesn’t invite intervention due to the absence of “chronic wrongdoing” and sufficient scale.

6. Forecasting, Risk Management, and Analyst Toolkits

• Market Knowledge and Human Intelligence (30:02)

  • Successful navigation requires both rigorous analysis and trusted on-the-ground intelligence.
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (31:06):
    “If you don’t have ground truth both from the corridors of power and on the ground in the parts of the world that are in focus, you’ve got absolutely no hope. You’re an outsider in what is fundamentally a knowledge-driven market.”

• Impacts on Major Players: Opportunities & Constraints (31:50, 37:54)

  • Trading houses, not conventional corporates, are best positioned to capitalize on volatility.
  • Oil majors need in-house trading capacity to manage escalating, unpredictable political risks.

7. Looking Ahead: Next Targets and Broader Consequences

• Potential for US Action Elsewhere (33:36)

  • Neighboring countries (Colombia, Mexico) show signs of hedging toward US alignment to avoid Venezuela's fate.
  • Cuba is flagged as a likely candidate for future intervention due to symbolic and geopolitical value.

• Free Flow of Commodities Threatened (37:13, 37:54)

  • "Donroe Doctrine" sets stage for long-term erosion of global commodities market integration, demanding major strategic choices by market participants.
  • Quote – Nick Kumleben (37:54):
    “For many of the trading houses, China is probably the second most important country in the world behind the United States. For some of them, China is probably number one. And so making that choice between those two superpowers is going to be an immensely difficult decision.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"Building the plane as it flies is quite a good analogy."
— Nick Kumleben (07:59)

"The free market is starting to look like the Black Knight in Monty Python pleading that it's just a flesh wound while it loses various limbs."
— Nick Kumleben (21:34)

"It's about not the government but a structure, a policy that is democratic but also sustainable… there is no oil company that's going to go there unless they can see a 10, 20, 30 year horizon."
— Paul Chapman (13:59)

"Chronic wrongdoing sits in the eye of the beholder."
— Nick Kumleben (18:53)

"If you don't have ground truth both from the corridors of power and on the ground in the parts of the world that are in focus, you've got absolutely no hope."
— Nick Kumleben (31:06)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• US Motivations for Intervention: 02:02–04:59
• Oil’s Role, Market Manipulation, and Reality: 04:59–07:59
• Mechanics—Oil Traders' Involvement: 07:59–09:29
• Scenario Analysis: Regime Stability or Change: 11:00–14:29
• Commodities Market Volatility: 20:33–21:34
• US Doctrine and Future Interventions: 18:17–24:43
• Risk Management, Market Forecasting: 30:02–31:50
• Implications for Trading Houses and Oil Majors: 31:50–37:54
• Geopolitical Outlook—What’s Next?: 33:36–35:16

Conclusion

Chapman and Kumleben provide a candid, nuanced analysis of the newly assertive US approach—now dubbed the Donroe Doctrine—and its profound effects on commodities markets and international relations. They detail both the strategic aims and the on-the-ground mechanics of the Venezuela intervention, offering insights into the future risks and opportunities that now await traders, producers, and policymakers.

For more information on HC Group and their work within the commodities sector, visit HC Group's Website. To connect with Paul Chapman, see his LinkedIn.