The HC Commodities Podcast: "The Great Repricing" with Jeff Currie
Host: Paul Chapman (HC Group)
Guest: Jeff Currie (Carlyle Group – Private Markets, Commodities/Energy)
Date: January 28, 2026

Episode Overview

In this engaging conversation, Paul Chapman and returning guest Jeff Currie tackle the complex economic and geopolitical backdrop shaping today’s commodities markets. They examine the paradoxical patterns of inflation, commodity cycles, the divergence between “molecules” (oil, gas, food) and “elements” (metals), underinvestment, the rise of government intervention, the AI boom, and the macro forces that could ignite a new phase of repricing across asset classes. The discussion is as much about big-picture market structure as it is about commodity-specific drivers—and whether the world is moving from rule-based trade to a more mercantilist, power-based order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Inflation, Stagflation, and Market Narratives

[02:02–05:04]

• Jeff notes the global economy and commodity demand are both stronger than expected, thanks partly to fiscal support in major economies, but says markets remain largely dismissive of imminent inflation—outside of gold and precious metals.
• “If you don’t have food and fuel as being a driver of stronger prices, then it’s hard to argue for any type of inflation… a high correlation between oil and energy prices and inflation.” (Jeff Currie, [03:45])
• Despite credible inflationary risks, markets are “unrelenting” in their view that prices can’t go meaningfully higher; “the macro setup for 2026 is more than sufficient to be able to start to create some of these pricing pressures.”

2. Commodity Performance: Molecules vs. Elements

[05:36–08:31]

• The dichotomy: Metals (elements) like gold, silver, and copper are “going straight up” while “molecules” tied to carbon (hydrocarbons and food) are struggling.
• “If it’s got an atomic number and it’s in the periodic table, it’s going straight up... If it’s a molecule and it’s got a carbon and hydrogen attached, God help you.” (Jeff Currie, [06:30])
• Molecules are policy targets because of their direct links to inflation and cost-of-living. Governments have taken extensive action to keep food and energy prices down through enabling higher supply from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, SPR releases, and relaxed regulations.

3. Supercycle Thesis & Underinvestment

[08:34–11:39]

• Currie revisits the commodity supercycle thesis (initiated October 2020):
  • Drivers: De-globalization (national security, onshoring, defense spending), decarbonization, and redistribution (income inequality).
  • “Copper, gold... have played out as expected. Oil has been the laggard... the underlying theme is underinvestment.” (Jeff Currie, [09:53])

4. Why “Molecules” Have Lagged

[12:38–17:06]

• Governments on both sides of the aisle want low energy prices, viewing them as key to social and political stability.
• Addressing underperformance in oil: “Why do you want to be short in a market that’s already killed off investment? Demand’s not slowing down… On every marker, oil is massively cheaper than what it looks like on your screen.” (Jeff Currie, [13:20])
• “The most powerful man in the world wants it at $50.”
• This approach—maximizing supply from sanctioned nations, rapid increases in food output, looser immigration—created a near-term glut, but has only deferred supply constraints.

5. Geopolitics, Deglobalization, & Hoarding

[17:06–18:28]

• The Venezuela episode is foregrounded as geopolitical, not purely oil-based: “It wasn’t about the oil... it’s a continuance of deglobalization—a move from rule-based to power politics.” (Paul Chapman, [17:06])
• Expect more inventory hoarding (especially by importers like China and India) and more fragile supply chains.

6. Commodity Cycle Dynamics: Are Supercycles Just Spikes?

[18:28–26:53]

• The cycles—historically 10+ years—are now seen as shorter, more volatile, with the same “spike” pattern (e.g., 1970s, 2000s) but higher highs and higher lows each time.
• “The drop since 2022 has lasted a lot longer than I ever thought it could.” (Jeff Currie, [26:36])
• Lack of investment and “fear-mongering” about oil supply gluts could actually reinforce higher prices down the road.

7. The Supposed Oil Glut: Real or Not?

[27:11–30:55]

• Currie lambastes the prevalent oil glut narrative as unsupported by data or actual fundamental oversupply.
• “I have never seen a view in any commodity market so convicted one direction… there’s no evidence of it.” (Jeff Currie, [28:24])
• Discussion on “phantom barrels,” floating storage, and the tendency for the market to misinterpret underlying data.

8. AI, Asset-Heavy Business Models & Macro Repricing

[32:26–35:33], [39:20–43:30]

• AI/data center buildout as the new “shale” (hyperinvestment, capital flows, asset-heavy transition):

  • “The world’s becoming asset heavy. We’re going back to the old world where you got to put steel in the ground... the bottleneck is going to be power and commodities.” (Jeff Currie, [22:57])
  • “The equity holders end up with a donut...the bondholders get made whole, managements make out, governments do well, but the equity guys end up with not much.” (Jeff Currie, [37:08])
  • The “AI compute” market already has an observable commodity price (see Bloomberg’s H100 price index) and it’s falling—a warning that technological gluts can appear fast.

• Macro repricing:

  • A radical shift (i.e., oil from $100 to $20) can be triggered not by demand collapse but by a surge of “macro repricing” where everything readjusts—currencies, rates, commodity prices, asset flows.
  • “Once you get panic set in... everyone grabs those ships as fast as they can... Suddenly there’s no more glut.” (Jeff Currie, [41:53])

9. De-dollarization, Gold, & Crypto

[42:20–52:47]

• After 2018 and 2022 sanctions, nations like Russia hoarded gold and de-dollarized—gold as the true “dark” asset.
• “If you’re looking to hedge yourself from de-dollarization, nothing beats precious metals.” (Jeff Currie, [52:16])
• Crypto and AI tokenization are important, but governments can still intervene; physical precious metals remain clandestine.

10. Rise of Mercantilism & State Capitalism

[59:17–62:56]

• Movement from rules-based global trade to power-based, state-capitalistic systems, mirrored in the bifurcation of payment systems (SWIFT vs. China’s CIPS).
• Commodity trading platforms must be “crypto and AI native,” with tokenization enabling secure and flexible cross-border operations.
• “State capitalism is back, but markets at the same time... We got DeFi going on... if you’re going to do this right, you better be crypto native because that’s the way you get around it.” (Jeff Currie, [60:31])

11. Historical Parallels & Mindset Shift

[62:59–66:32]

• The current cycle is historically normal: 50 years of British, then American globalization, punctuated by long periods of mercantilism.
• “The vast majority of history is more like today and less like the period... the anomaly is the 50 years each under British and American leadership.” (Jeff Currie, [62:59])
• Technological revolution happens because of societal need (see tokenization/DeFi): “The technology only becomes prevalent when society has a need of it.” (Paul Chapman, [65:57])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On inflation’s drivers:
  “If you don’t have food and fuel as being a driver of stronger prices, then it’s hard to argue for any type of inflation.” (Jeff Currie, [03:45])

• On policy vs. market cycles:
  “If the government has an incentive out there to keep prices low in the commodity space, it’s going to be all those molecules.” (Jeff Currie, [06:52])

• On underinvestment and supply response:
  "They got more food, more energy and more labor by relaxing all the rules... the key point here is you created a lot of supply by pushing on a lot of strings." (Jeff Currie, [15:15])

• On the oil glut narrative:
  “I have never seen a view in any commodity market so convicted one direction... and it is convicted on something where you really can’t even see the evidence.” (Jeff Currie, [28:24])

• On technological cycles in commodities & AI:
  “Don’t bet against an engineer. Give them enough time and money, they will solve the problem... and massively increase supply far beyond what anybody thought.” (Jeff Currie, [33:15], reflecting on both shale and AI compute)

• On gold vs. crypto:
  “You can transact in precious [metals] without anybody ever knowing it… if you’re looking to hedge from de-dollarization, nothing beats precious.” (Jeff Currie, [52:16])

• On the changing trading environment:
  “Yes, [commodity trading platforms] will be great for those in this, but you better be technologically savvy. The world’s getting more complicated.” (Jeff Currie, [56:01])

• On the macro cycle:
  “These things are cycles... and the catalyst is usually some policy decision somewhere in the world that creates these repricings.” (Jeff Currie, [49:36])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:02] – Currie outlines 2026’s macro setup and inflation outlook
• [06:30] – “Molecule vs. element” commodities thesis
• [09:53] – Supercycle drivers: deglobalization, decarbonization, redistribution
• [13:20] – Policy-driven oil supply and the record “mega short” thesis
• [22:57] – The asset-heavy world: AI/data centers, investment shifts
• [28:24] – Debunking the oil glut consensus
• [37:08] – On equity returns amid technological cycles (AI, railroads, shale)
• [41:53] – How a macro repricing could unfold (“hoarding” scenario)
• [52:16] – Gold and the de-dollarization thesis
• [56:01] – The future of commodity trading: crypto/AI native
• [60:31] – Defi, tokenization vs. state capitalism
• [62:59] – Historical globalization cycles and current return to mercantilism

Summary for Uninitiated Listeners

This wide-ranging episode explores why metals are soaring but oil, gas, and food (the “molecules”) aren’t—spoiler: it’s all about politics, deliberate government intervention, and inflation control. Underinvestment and skeptical market narratives persist in oil, often out of step with supply/demand realities. At the same time, the next investment wave—spurred by AI and the need for real, not “virtual,” assets—could trigger a broad “repricing” of capital flows, echoing past cycles.

The episode paints a world moving from rule-based market structures toward bilateral, state-driven, technologically-enabled commerce, requiring firms and investors to embrace crypto, AI, and tokenization—or be left behind.

Currie’s concluding advice: don’t be fooled by consensus views, understand the cycles, and recognize when the “anomaly” is actually the norm. In commodities, those who invest for security of real assets in volatile times—and embrace technological sophistication—will be best positioned for what comes next.

For further information, visit: www.hcgroup.global

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