The HC Commodities Podcast

Episode: Trading: the hidden $3trillion dollar opportunity with Antti Belt
Date: November 12, 2025
Host: Paul Chapman, HC Group
Guest: Antti Belt, Partner at BCG and Research Fellow at the Henderson Institute

Episode Overview

In this episode, Paul Chapman hosts Antti Belt to unpack the “hidden $3 trillion profit opportunity” described in Antti’s recent paper, focusing on how organizations—especially those in the energy and commodity sectors—can unlock untapped value (“dark value”) through adopting trading mindsets and platforms. The discussion explores why many companies shy away from trading, barriers to entry for building trading teams, sector-by-sector differences in trading opportunities, technological shifts in trading, and the expansion of trading philosophies into sectors like chemicals, real estate, and cloud computing. The conversation is rich with survey findings, real-world examples, and insight into the evolving global commodities landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Barriers to Entry in Trading (02:30–16:10)

• Misconceptions & Board Reluctance (03:19–06:28):

  • Many boards associate trading with pure risk-taking and complexity, often referencing notable failures (e.g., Enron).
  • There is a significant skills gap at the board level, leading to undervaluation of trading's potential.
  • Quote: “The boards…associate trading purely with risk taking…[and] simply don't understand what trading is and what it isn't.” – Antti [05:27]

• Perceived Lack of Opportunities (07:59–09:10):

  • Survey respondents differ on how often opportunities arise—some see many, others few—often reflecting how actively teams seek them.
  • Some sectors (energy, banking) have constant trading opportunities; others (real estate) less so.

• Talent Shortage & Cost (11:29–16:10):

  • Difficulty attracting and retaining specialized trading, risk, compliance, and IT talent.
  • Trading divisions are expensive and cyclical, leading to cautious hiring and maintenance.
  • Quote: “It’s difficult to recruit and retain these sort of people.” – Antti [13:18]

• Technology as a Barrier and Opportunity (16:10–18:03):

  • Trading requires advanced, highly reactive IT systems and specialized tech talent—costly but increasingly essential.
  • Pressure on margins is driving demand for automation and efficiency.

2. Changing Nature of Barriers & Market Evolution (19:19–23:49)

• Differentiation by Commodity Type (19:19–21:43):

  • Established markets like ags and oil have high entry barriers; power/renewables offer lower entry points due to tech, lease, and asset-light models.
  • Rise of tech-focused “optimizer” firms in renewables and batteries.

• Leveraging Information and Technology (22:43–23:49):

  • Companies can extract value by mining their own proprietary data and optimizing their internal supply chains, without building large trading floors.
  • Quote: “That opens up a lot of value that’s…almost risk free because you’re just utilizing optionality you already have in your supply chain.” – Antti [22:43]

3. The Current Trading Environment (25:25–38:59)

• Post-Volatility Landscape (25:25–27:32):

  • After record profits during Covid and geopolitical shocks, trading results are normalizing, making efficiency and automation priorities again.
  • Larger gaps emerging between tech-mature and lagging trading firms.

• Technology Gap Among Traders (27:32–31:12):

  • Antti’s tech maturity benchmark reveals LNG traders as leaders, followed by power/gas (esp. Europe); oil lags due to complexity.
  • Quote: “Some of the very forward looking LNG players…are approaching what we call level 2 advancement, which is already very, very advanced.” – Antti [27:53]

• Hedge Funds in Commodities (32:22–34:32):

  • Hedge funds, skilled in financial markets and data, faced challenges in 2024–25; physical trading remains a key differentiator.
  • Quote: “A lot of the value is in understanding the physical and translating that into the paper.” – Antti [33:30]

• Margin & Volatility Outlook (35:43–39:37):

  • Margins are stabilizing below 2022–24 highs but above historical norms.
  • Regulatory risk and geopolitical uncertainties make flexibility and risk management more valuable.
  • Quote: “The best you can do is prepare to be flexible and provide that sort of cushioning…” – Antti [35:43]

4. Expanding Trading Mindsets Beyond Commodities (40:53–53:13)

• Defining Dark Value (40:53–43:53):

  • “Dark value” refers to unobserved potential value left uncaptured due to market inefficiencies or lack of trading.
  • Paper’s matrix identifies sectors (e.g., chemicals, real estate, travel, capital goods) where trading could unlock large pools of dark value.

• Sector Examples:

  • Chemicals (44:30–47:30):
    • Profit squeeze pushing companies to standardize products and increase liquidity, foregoing some brand premiums for trading margins.
    • Quote: “…in chemicals, it’s getting easier because the industry profit margins are very low. So all of a sudden, that 3, 4, 5% trading margin becomes extremely interesting.” – Antti [46:38]
  • Real Estate (47:33–50:40):
    • Extremely high transaction costs (5–8%, up to 15–20%) signal massive inefficiency.
    • No forward curve, scant short-term liquidity—ripe for traders using data, models, and flexible capital.
    • Quote: “Even in the most efficient [real estate] markets, we are somewhere in the range of 5 to 8% of cost to transact.” – Antti [47:35]
  • Cloud Compute (51:18–53:13):
    • Emergence of data centers and variable power pricing points to future trading opportunities in compute resources.
    • Concept: arbitraging computational demand and power costs globally.

5. Talent & The Future of Trading (53:13–55:15)

• Sourcing & Retaining Trading Talent:

  • Current trading talent is concentrated in energy, commodities, and (to some extent) hedge funds.
  • Few graduate programs for commodity trading; cross-industry expansion will intensify competition for talent.
  • Quote: “It will be a pretty tough fight for the top guys.” – Antti [53:53]

• Appealing to Next Generation:

  • Sector has perception and knowledge hurdles for attracting young talent, especially amid environmental, social, and technological trends.

Notable Quotes

• On Executive Reluctance:
  “The boards often associate trading purely with risk taking...and there's just misconceptions around what trading is."
  — Antti Belt [05:27]

• On Opportunity Uplift:
  “The sort of middle of the line answer was between 2 and 3 percentage points of EBITDA…that's a very big uplift for many, especially conversion businesses.”
  — Antti Belt [06:43]

• On Tech in Trading:
  "[Trading]...requires a very specialized IT setup, a very specialized team of tech people. The relevance of technology is increasing this year quite a fair bit.”
  — Antti Belt [18:03]

• On Non-Commodities Sectors:
  "By professionally managing your data inputs, having good valuation models...timing your entries and exits...having dry powder in capital seems to be quite an interesting play [in real estate]."
  — Antti Belt [47:33]

• On Mindset Change:
  “Even if you don't want to be a big trader…make sure that you're capturing all of the information in the chain and feeding that to your commercial teams...That's almost risk-free value.”
  — Antti Belt [22:43]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Barriers to Trading & Executive Mindset: 02:30–13:33
• Talent and Technology Challenges: 13:33–18:03
• Established vs New Barriers in Commodities Sectors: 19:19–23:49
• Recent Trends in Energy Trading Landscape: 25:25–31:12
• Role of Hedge Funds & Margin Outlook: 32:22–39:37
• Dark Value Matrix and Sector Strategies: 40:53–47:30
• Real Estate and Cloud Computing as Future Trading Frontiers: 47:33–53:13
• Talent Pipeline & Industry Perceptions: 53:13–55:15

Memorable Moments

• Chemicals becoming more commoditized to facilitate trading, sacrificing brand premium for higher liquidity and optionality.
• Real estate’s high transaction costs compared to near-zero cost markets highlighted as a colossal inefficiency waiting for optimization.
• Speculation on future of “compute trading” as data centers and variable energy costs spread.
• Candid acknowledgement of how commodity trading mindset and skills will become valuable across a range of industries well beyond energy.

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive look at why and how trading skills and platforms can unlock hidden profit in both traditional commodity sectors and new verticals—if companies can overcome ingrained misconceptions, build/attract the right talent, and embrace the technology now defining market leaders. Antti Belt’s insights are both a caution and a call-to-action for CEOs and boards: the organizations that learn to think and act like traders—leveraging information, agility, and technology—will seize the “dark value” on the table, while others risk being left behind.

For further reading, Antti’s paper and supporting resources are linked in the show notes.