The HC Commodities Podcast

Episode: Tungsten with William Parry-Jones
Host: Paul Chapman (HC Group)
Guest: William Parry-Jones (Founder, Wolfram Advisory)
Date: April 7, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode provides a deep dive into the world of tungsten—a critical but often overlooked metal essential for both industrial and military applications. Host Paul Chapman is joined by tungsten authority William Parry-Jones, who unpacks tungsten’s unique properties, its global supply chain (especially China’s dominance), the reasons behind the recent tenfold price surge, and what these developments mean for the future of critical minerals, geopolitics, and investment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tungsten Fundamentals: Properties and Uses

[02:10–04:38]

• Basic Facts: Tungsten, atomic number 74, boasts the highest melting point of any metallic element and a density similar to gold—double that of lead.
• Key Property: When combined with carbon to form tungsten carbide, it has a hardness close to diamond.
• Primary Use Cases:
  • Industrial tooling (cutting, drilling, machining): ~65%
  • Transport (automotive, civil aviation, etc.): ~25%
  • General Engineering: ~14%
  • Defense (projectiles, armor): ~11% direct use, but indirect use much higher due to tungsten’s role in manufacturing war machines.
• Quote:
  "It's an invisible industrial consumable. The demand is a proxy for global manufacturing activity. When you look around you…everything you're looking at has had tungsten involved in its manufacture in some way."
  —William Parry-Jones [06:59]

2. Demand Dynamics & Price Inelasticity

[07:21–08:09]

• Tungsten demand closely tracks global GDP and is "inelastic"; end-users cannot easily substitute or reduce consumption in response to price changes.
• Historically, demand only spikes away from trend during global conflicts.
• Quote:
  "Demand is definitely inelastic. Demand is not the exciting story here. It's supply."
  —William Parry-Jones [07:40]

3. Global Supply Chain: China’s Endowment and Policy

[08:57–12:28]

• China’s Role: Tungsten’s abundance is worldwide, but China dominates supply due to both rich surface deposits and supportive government policies.
• Historical Origins:
  • Early 20th-century: Tungsten’s economic significance helped finance the CCP’s survival.
  • Today, China provides ~80% of primary (mined) supply.
• Forms & Processing:
  • Principal ores: Wolframite and Scheelite.
  • All intermediate trade centers on ammonium paratungstate (APT)—a chemical precursor with 88.5% tungsten trioxide (WO₃).
  • APT is traded globally in containerized form.
• Quote:
  "At its peak, the revenue from tungsten smuggled out of Jiangsi...represented nearly 70% of the CCP's non-tax revenue."
  —William Parry-Jones [10:35]

4. Trade, Pricing, and Market Mechanics

[15:55–19:52]

• Price Units: Prices are quoted per metric ton unit (MTU) of WO₃ (10kg WO₃), usually in the form of APT.
• Market Structure:
  • OTC-dominated, bilateral contracts tied to indexes.
  • Spot market liquidity has declined as supply chain vertical integration increased.
  • No active futures/terminal market for tungsten, but there is hope amid investor interest.
  • APT can be stored for long periods, though it’s sensitive to moisture.
• Quote:
  "Most of the market is transacted OTC...There's certainly no futures market or terminal market to deliver this into. I very much hope that one emerges..."
  —William Parry-Jones [17:56]

5. Why Are Prices Up 10x? The Geopolitical Squeeze

[20:01–24:36]

• Recent Price Action: Since Feb 2025, spot prices have soared from ~$290/MTU to ~$2,900/MTU of WO₃—over 600% increase.
• Catalyst:
  • In Feb 2025, China’s MOFCOM imposed strict export controls on tungsten and most forms of its raw materials.
  • Over the prior 2 years, China secured overseas primary supply, leaving the rest of the world with even less access.
• Supply Constraints:
  • Even the "20% ex-China" production is less accessible due to Chinese buying and many sources in non-Western-aligned countries (Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Russia, etc.).
  • Western-friendly primary production is limited to Vietnam, Spain, Austria, Australia, Portugal, and Brazil.
  • The West’s significant supply comes from recycling, not mining.
• Quote:
  "The Chinese get very aggressive and very active in taking primary production from the rest of the world and bringing it into China."
  —William Parry-Jones [24:36]

6. Market Reactions & Responses

[27:52–34:08]

• Equities & Investment:
  • Little opportunity in refining equities (mostly private), but surge in junior mining explorers (from 3–4 to over 20–30 in a year), now highly speculative "meme stocks."
  • Investment is risky: if China reverses export controls or tensions fall, prices could drop quickly.
  • New mines take 3–5 years to develop. Only a handful of near-term expansions possible; most solutions are medium term at best.
• Policy & Strategic Moves:
  • Governments (esp. US/EU) now considering restoring strategic stockpiles, direct equity in projects, or offtake guarantees—mirroring the Chinese approach.
  • Only China has maintained and increased reserves; the West disposed of strategic stocks during more "globalized" times.
• Sectoral Response:
  • Defense and energy are the loudest voices pushing for secure supply chains.
  • Recycling becomes more important given difficulties in new mine supply.
• Quote:
  "It’s certainly a risky thesis. I would imagine that it will survive until the end of the current administration at minimum..."
  —William Parry-Jones [29:39]

7. Trading & Historical Anecdotes

[35:50–38:56]

• Trading Houses:
  • Historically, trading was more vibrant; today, main players outside China are Traxxas, Mercuria, and Hartree, especially in US government strategic stockpiling projects.
  • Trading of scrap metal is livelier, with companies like Tunko Chronomet and Stadler Matala active.
• Colorful Market History:
  • 1960s/70s: Simon Hicks of Metal Traders famously manipulated prices at the Canton Fair; ultimately, the trading firm went bankrupt due to volatility and overwhelming Chinese offers.
• Quote:
  "All you needed to know was whether Hicks was buying or selling."
  —William Parry-Jones [38:20]

8. Wolfram Advisory: Parry-Jones’ Work Today

[39:52–41:09]

• Works with junior miners (commercial support, market timing), midstream manufacturers (navigating new dynamics), and institutional investors (mining equity analysis).
• Contact via LinkedIn or email; details provided in show notes.

9. Notable Quotes & Moments

• "It's an invisible industrial consumable. The demand is a proxy for global manufacturing activity..." —William Parry-Jones [06:59]
• "Demand is not the exciting story here. It's supply." —[07:40]
• "China controls 80%—there or thereabouts—of primary tungsten production." —[22:25]
• "In the two years leading up to February 2025, we saw the Chinese get very aggressive and very active in taking primary production from the rest of world..." —[24:36]
• "Investment in new mines is a risky thesis...I would imagine that it will survive until the end of the current administration..." —[29:39]
• "Only China has maintained—and increased—their reserves in the last couple of years." —[34:08]
• "All you needed to know was whether Hicks was buying or selling." —[38:20]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tungsten Properties & Applications: [02:10–04:38]
• Demand Inelasticity & Market Overview: [07:21–08:09]
• China’s Dominance – History & Policy: [08:57–12:28]
• Trade, Pricing, & Market Mechanics: [15:55–19:52]
• The Price Surge & Export Controls: [20:01–24:36]
• Market Response, Mines, and Policy: [27:52–34:08]
• Trading Houses & Colorful History: [35:50–38:56]
• Guest’s Advisory Practice & Closing: [39:52–41:09]

Summary & Reflections

This episode painted a vivid picture of tungsten’s paradox: an overlooked, “invisible” metal with an outsized role in industry and defense, now thrust into the spotlight due to a perfect storm of geopolitics, resource nationalism, and steep price rises. Parry-Jones emphasized both the structural vulnerabilities of the Western supply chain and the speed with which investment sentiment and policy can change in response to such shocks. The long timelines for new supply and the complexity of global trading add urgency for governments and companies seeking to secure access.

Contact:

• William Parry-Jones: LinkedIn | Email: william@wolframadvisory.com

Podcast Host: Paul Chapman (LinkedIn)
More Info: HC Group