The HC Commodities Podcast

Episode: Wine with Nick Brewer

Host: Paul Chapman (HC Group)
Guest: Nick Brewer (Winemaker & Owner, Oastbrook Winery; former COO ECTP, Noble Group)
Date: November 26, 2025

Overview

This episode takes listeners on a comprehensive exploration of wine as a commodity. From the historical roots and basic production methods to the evolving global supply chain, trends in consumption, the influence of climate change, and the rise of English wine, Paul Chapman and Nick Brewer dissect the industry with the rigor of veterans but the joy of true enthusiasts. Nick shares not only expert insights but also stories from his journey in commodities and winemaking, making for an engaging and informative conversation—perfect for beginners, aficionados, and industry insiders alike.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What is Wine? (02:02)

• Historical Origins: Wine-making dates back to 6000 BC in Georgia (the country). The ideal vine-growing latitudes are between the 30th and 50th parallels. England (where Oastbrook is located) is just outside this traditional range but is now becoming viable for wine due to climate change.

• Grape Production: Roughly 7.5 million hectares of vines globally yield around 75 million metric tons. 55% are wine grapes; the rest are for table, dried, or juice. Europe is still the main producing region.

• Definition: True wine is fermented from grapes. Fruit wines (e.g., crab apple, elderflower) aren’t technically “wine.”

  "Wine has to be made from grapes itself. Now you can have things like fruit wines... But grapes coming from vines are really the definition of wine."
  — Nick Brewer (04:05)

2. The Making of Wine – From Vine to Bottle (06:03)

• Agriculture First: Winemakers start as farmers, with vine lifespans of up to 25+ years.

• The Annual Cycle:

  • Bud burst (April)
  • Flower and fruit set (June)
  • Veraison (July–Sept): the fruit swells and accumulates sugar
  • Harvest (Sept–Oct in the UK; as early as July further south)

• Types of Wine:

  • Red: Fermented on skins (color comes solely from skin contact; juice is clear).
  • White: Juice is pressed off skins immediately.
  • Rosé: Limited skin contact—short maceration from red grapes.
  • Sparkling (e.g. Champagne): Two fermentations, with bubbles produced as a natural byproduct.
  • Blanc de Noirs: White wine made from red grapes (e.g., Pinot Noir)—less common but growing.

• Vineyard Suitability: Varietal choice is dictated by terroir, especially climate.

  "The only way we get color into [red wine] is by contact with the skins... For rosés, it's a maceration for a shorter period of time."
  — Nick Brewer (08:06)

3. Wine Varietals, Terroir & Alcohol Trends (12:05)

• Terroir: Geography and climate dictate what grapes are grown (e.g., New Zealand’s Sauvignon Blanc, Bordeaux’s Cabernet/Merlot, Burgundy’s Pinot Noir/Chardonnay).

• Alcohol Levels: Warmer climates and changing climate conditions are raising average alcohol content. Burgundy, for example, rose from 12% to 14% ABV; Napa and California averages now reach 15–15.5%.

  "What we're definitely seeing is continued increases in alcohol levels, and that's due to climatic conditions."
  — Nick Brewer (14:08)

4. The Global Wine Supply Chain (16:22)

• Models:

  • Contract growers (sell grapes to wineries)
  • Estate producers (grow & produce own wine)
  • Bulk/export-focused models (especially Australia)

• Bulk Wine Commoditization: Bulk wine is fungible; exported in large containers. True commoditization occurs mostly for low-cost, bulk blends.

• Risk & Hedging: Hedging opportunities in wine are limited; mostly bilateral contracts. No deep liquid futures/hedging market for wine.

  "The nearest thing we have to [wine as a commodity] is bulk production... A very significant amount of international movements of wine is actually in the form of bulk wine."
  — Nick Brewer (18:18)

• Value Chain: Retailers and distributors still take large margin slices; iconic producers at the top of the value chain enjoy the best margins.

5. Additives, Preservatives, and Natural Wines (25:00)

• Natural Wines: No preservatives; very limited shelf life, thus almost always local.

• SO2 Use: Sulfites regulated regionally; Europe has far stricter limits than the U.S. or Australia.

• Misconceptions: Sulfite sensitivity is rare; headaches are more often related to alcohol content.

  "A natural wine is great at some point between the moment it's made and the point it arrives at your table, but you don't quite know when."
  — Nick Brewer (25:00)

6. Global Consumption & Trade Trends (27:36)

• Convergence of Drinking Cultures: Beer, wine, and spirits cultures have overlapped due to trade, affluence, and changing tastes.

• Wine as a Traded Commodity: In the 1980s, 10–15% of all wine was traded internationally; now it’s 47%.

• Regional Shifts: As affluence rises (~$20,000 GDP per capita), alcohol consumption peaks, then drops with increasing health consciousness—driving trends in established markets.

• Premiumization: Value per bottle rises even as overall consumption plateaus or declines, offsetting volume decrease (until recently).

  "Wine consumption now is about the same as it was in the 1960s... the value of that wine has increased."
  — Nick Brewer (33:36)

• China’s Wine Story: Huge import growth (especially for premium/Bordeaux); recent declines due to a clampdown on official excess, economic slowdown, and a temporary ban targeting Australian exporters. Domestic Chinese production is rising.

7. Market Pressure Points & Demographics (42:40)

• Generational Shift: Boomers and Gen X are/were prolific wine drinkers; younger consumers, especially Gen Z and millennials, consume far less alcohol, preferring lower-alcohol and lighter wines.

• Red-to-White Shift: Growing preference for white (and sparkling) over red.

  "Gen Z... aren't doing any favors in terms of alcohol consumption, but good for them."
  — Paul Chapman (35:51)

8. The Impact of Climate Change (45:48)

• Global Effects:

  • Some regions are newly viable (UK, Denmark, Sweden, Norway).
  • Traditional zones (e.g., Napa, Australia, southern Europe) face wildfires, drought, late frosts, or rising alcohol levels.
  • Acreage is down 13% in a decade; California has decommissioned ~40,000 hectares.

• Mismatch: While consumer tastes shift to lighter, lower-alcohol wines, warming boosts grape sugar and alcohol potential.

• UK as a Winner: English sparkling wine now rivals Champagne; Champagne houses are buying UK land.

  "The only reason we're producing wine at the quality level that we're able to do now [in England] is because of climate change."
  — Nick Brewer (45:48)

9. The English Wine Revolution & Oastbrook’s Still Wine Bet (51:54)

• English Wine’s Rise: Reputation built on sparkling wine post-1990s as international awards began to roll in.

• Still Wine as the Next Opportunity: Oastbrook pivots from the UK norm (70% sparkling production) to 70% still wines, with award-winning Pinot Noir and Chardonnay.

• Sector Stats: England’s vineyards remain small globally (5,000 ha), but quality is rising rapidly with climate and skill.

  "The sparkling wines are now winning global awards... but the bit that really excites me above all is basically still wines."
  — Nick Brewer (54:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On "Dad Wine" Experiments:
  "You probably remember things used to be exchanged at Christmas and then double-exchanged again because no one was brave enough to drink this stuff."
  — Nick Brewer (04:05)

• On Climate Change & UK Wine:
  "In England, you know, the first vineyards are... in Yorkshire for a while now, and there are even a couple in Scotland."
  — Nick Brewer (48:29)

• On Natural Wine’s Fleeting Peak:
  "A natural wine is great at some point between the moment it’s made and the point it arrives at your table, but you don’t quite know when."
  — Nick Brewer (25:00)

• On Scarcity and Branding:
  "There's true scarcity and imagined scarcity—or talked about scarcity... in Burgundy... true scarcity... in other areas a lot of marketing is taking place."
  — Nick Brewer (36:20, 39:01)

• On Matching Consumer Preferences:
  "There's a mismatch there between the traditional production levels and that which is desired."
  — Nick Brewer (50:10)

Segment Timestamps

| Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------|--------------| | Introduction & Wine Basics | 01:04–06:03 | | Making Red, White, Rosé, Sparkling | 06:22–11:55 | | Varietals, Terroir, Alcohol Trends | 12:05–15:48 | | Global Wine Supply Chain | 15:48–22:48 | | Additives, Preservatives | 23:44–27:02 | | History of Trade & Consumption | 27:36–35:45 | | Premiumization & China | 36:04–41:56 | | Market Pressure, Demographics | 42:40–44:49 | | Climate Change Impacts | 45:14–51:38 | | English Wine Opportunity | 51:54–56:36 | | Book Recommendation & Farewell | 57:22–58:13 |

Wine and Book Recommendations

• Oastbrook Wines for Christmas:

  • Cuvée 2018 (Sparkling)
  • Sparkling Rosé 2018
  • Chardonnay Reserve 2022 (Barrel-aged)
  • Pinot Noir 2022

  Available direct from the vineyard, for restaurant listings, or online (UK-wide shipping).
  — (55:19–56:39)

• Wine Book Recommendation:

  • Hugh Johnson’s Pocket Wine Book
  • Times World Encyclopedia of Wine

  "...covers all the global world wines... a great sort of gift for Christmas to kind of fit in a stocking."
  — Nick Brewer (57:40)

Final Words

Paul and Nick end on an optimistic note for English wine and a reminder that, despite all the market stresses and climate anxieties, there’s a lot of passion and innovation still in the vine and bottle. Their chemistry and humor ensure the episode remains accessible, practical, and inspiring for professionals and casual drinkers alike.