Iran’s Next Supreme Leader, and the New Lucrative Pardon Industry for Rich Offenders

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Headlines

Episode: Iran’s Next Supreme Leader, and the New Lucrative Pardon Industry for Rich Offenders

Host: Tracy Mumford (The New York Times)
Date: March 9, 2026

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Overview

This episode focuses on several fast-moving, high-impact global events and national trends:

• The appointment of a new Supreme Leader in Iran during ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel
• The humanitarian and economic fallout of the war, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and spikes in oil prices
• The emergence of a lucrative ‘pardon industry’ benefiting wealthy offenders during President Trump’s administration
• Shifts in U.S. immigration enforcement under Trump
• Disruptions in American air travel due to a partial government shutdown
• The impact of rising fast-casual restaurant prices on American consumers

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iran in Crisis: New Supreme Leader Amid War

[00:33 - 03:22]

• Supreme Leader Succession:

  • Mujtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been named Iran’s new supreme leader after his father's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes.
  • His selection appears to contradict the anti-dynastic ideals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution:

    "The Islamic Revolution in 1979 was about toppling a monarchy and promising to end the hereditary transfer of power...His selection, despite that, suggests that those high up in the Iranian government have closed ranks at a time of crisis and are looking for continuity for the regime." (Tracy Mumford, 01:31)

  • The U.S. and Israel have both denounced the selection, with Israel openly threatening the new leader’s life.
  • There is public unrest inside Iran, including protest chants of "death to Mujtaba."

• Military Escalation and Civilian Risks:

  • Ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran, including attacks on fuel depots and critical water desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain.
  • Accusations and denials fly between Iran, Bahrain, and the U.S. regarding responsibility for damaged facilities.
  • Civilian infrastructure strikes are raising fears of a water crisis affecting millions:

    “Striking them risks turning a military confrontation into a direct threat to civilian survival.” (Middle East expert, paraphrased by Mumford, 02:35)

• Economic Fallout:

  • Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in four years.
  • U.S. officials, including President Trump, are prioritizing military objectives over immediate economic impacts:

    "If they rise, they rise. But this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit." (President Trump, 03:53)

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2. The New ‘Pardon Industry’ Under Trump

[06:19 - 08:17]

• Rise of Clemency Lobbying:

  • Reporting by Ken Vogel uncovers a growing industry of lobbyists and lawyers charging wealthy convicts large fees to try securing presidential pardons.
  • Example: Joseph Schwartz, a disgraced nursing home mogul convicted of tax fraud, paid nearly $1 million to multiple intermediaries promising access to Trump. After only three weeks in prison, Schwartz received a “full and unconditional pardon.”

• Access Over Remorse:

  • The modern pardon process is described as transactional and dependent on personal connections more than legal merit or remorse:

    “…this pardon industry really prioritizes the ability to find someone who can get to the President and make the case for the pardon, and not remorse, atonement, [or] the unlikelihood of recidivism, which were really the traditional things that pardon applicants used to stress…” (Ken Vogel, 07:42)

• Lobbyist Influence Denied:

  • The White House denies that lobbying has any impact on pardon decisions:

    “Anyone spending money to lobby for pardons is foolishly wasting their money, and the president doesn’t even know who these so-called lobbyists are.” (White House press secretary, quoted by Mumford, 08:17)

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3. Shifts in Trump-Era Immigration Enforcement

[03:53 - 06:19]

• Temporary Pullback:
  • After months of intense raids, March saw a reduction in ICE and Border Patrol activity in major cities, shifting to more targeted arrests.
  • Despite this dip, detentions remain four times higher than during President Biden’s last year in office.
  • Public backlash is mounting after violent incidents, including the killings of two U.S. citizens by federal agents.

  • “Polls show that a majority of Americans believe ICE’s tactics went too far.” (Tracy Mumford, 05:39)

  • Official data suggest the current lull may only be temporary, reflecting previous cycles of intensity.

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4. Government Shutdown Disrupts Air Travel

[08:17 - 10:10]

• TSA Staffing Crisis:
  • Long security lines in Houston and New Orleans due to unpaid TSA agents as Congress fails to resolve DHS funding.
  • Passengers face severe flight delays and unreliable information from official wait-time apps.
  • Airlines are advising travelers to arrive up to four hours early during the spring break period.

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5. Fast-Food Inflation and Its Effects

[10:10 - End]

• Rising Prices Hit Consumers and Chains:
  • Fast-casual chains like Chipotle and Sweetgreen see sharp price hikes (25% and 20% respectively over four years).

    “$52.64 for two bowls and two drinks at Chipotle.” (Tracy Mumford, 10:14)

  • The 'slop bowl' trend is faltering as mid-tier customers abandon pricey options; Sweetgreen’s stock plummets 76%.
  • Traditional fast-food chains are targeting cost-conscious consumers with value menus, and bowl-centric companies may follow suit.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The Islamic Revolution in 1979 was about toppling a monarchy and promising to end the hereditary transfer of power…His selection, despite that, suggests that those high up in the Iranian government have closed ranks at a time of crisis…"
  — Tracy Mumford, (01:31)

• "Striking them risks turning a military confrontation into a direct threat to civilian survival."
  — Middle East expert, as quoted by Mumford (02:35)

• "If they rise, they rise. But this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit."
  — President Trump, (03:53)

• "...this pardon industry really prioritizes the ability to find someone who can get to the President and make the case for the pardon and not remorse, atonement, and the unlikelihood of recidivism, which were really the traditional things..."
  — Ken Vogel, NYT (07:42)

• "$52.64 for two bowls and two drinks at Chipotle."
  — Tracy Mumford, (10:14)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Iran’s new Supreme Leader & public reaction: 00:33 – 03:22
• Escalation of Middle East military conflict & water crisis: 01:58 – 02:56
• Oil price shock and U.S. response: 03:22 – 03:51
• Shift in U.S. immigration enforcement: 03:53 – 06:19
• The rise of the Trump-era ‘pardon industry’: 06:19 – 08:17
• Airport delays during DHS shutdown: 08:17 – 10:10
• Fast-food price inflation & consumer shifts: 10:10 – end

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a concise yet dense roundup of breaking international and domestic news, focusing in particular on the intersection of politics, economic hardship, and social discontent—from Iran’s tumultuous leadership transition amid war, to the ways wealth and influence can shape not only justice but personal liberty in contemporary America.

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Transcript

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[Tracy Mumford]

from the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Monday, March 9th. Here's what we're covering. The war with Iran has now entered its second week. Here are three key things the Times is tracking this morning. The country has named a new supreme leader who both Israel and the US have denounced. Attacks have continued in Iran and across the Gulf, hitting civilian infrastructure that's raised concerns about a potential water crisis. And the price of oil has surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly four years. To start, Iran's top clerics have named Mujtaba Khamenei to lead the country. He's the 56 year old son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is who was killed in the US Israeli strikes last Saturday. He was groomed for the position and has strong military and political connections, though at one point his father had indicated to his close advisors that he didn't want his son to succeed him. According to three Iranian officials familiar with the selection process, the Islamic Revolution in 1979 was about toppling a monarchy and promising to end the hereditary transfer of power. He his selection, despite that suggests that those high up in the Iranian government have closed ranks at a time of crisis and are looking for continuity for the regime. Many opposed to the government have rejected the choice. Some people could be heard chanting death to Mujtaba from their windows after it was announced. At the same time, Israel has threatened to kill whoever takes the position. And President Trump warned this weekend that the next supreme leader, quote, is not going to last long without the approval of the United States. Second, over the weekend, the US And Israel hit hundreds of targets in Iran, with US Central Command warning civilians in the country to stay inside. Israel went after several Iranian fuel depots, turning the sky in Tehran dark with thick, billowing smoke. And water desalination plants came under attack in Iran and Bahrain. Iran's foreign minister accused the US of striking the one there, affecting the water supply for more than two dozen villages. The US has denied that Bahrain says its desalination plant was hit by an Iranian drone. As Iran's been attacking Gulf states, which are close allies of the U.S. one expert on the Middle east said the plants which turn seawater into drinking water are essential lifelines for tens of millions of people. And, quote, striking them risks turning a military confrontation into a direct threat to civilian survival. And lastly, we want it back below

[News Analyst]

$3 a gallon, and it will be again before too long. Well, what do you mean by too long? How much longer?

[Tracy Mumford]

The ongoing conflict has driven up the price of fuel fast. Gas prices are now up 17%. And last night, oil, oil prices surged past $100 a barrel. The Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, said on CNN that the US Is working on securing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and gas that's been choked by the conflict. And, you know, and that, that, that'll

[News Analyst]

take some time, but again, worst case

[Tracy Mumford]

that that's a few weeks, that's not months. In an interview with Reuters, President Trump suggested he was prioritizing military operations over concerns about prices. He said, quote, they'll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise. But this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit. In the U.S. internal government data indicates that after months of high profile, aggressive immigration raids, the Trump administration has slightly scaled back arrests, at least for now. Immigration arrests last month were at their lowest level since September, and the changes have been felt in some of the places hardest hit by President Trump's crackdown. In Los Angeles, a group that monitors immigration agents says there's been a noticeable decline in ICE and Border Patrol sightings. In Minnesota, the administration has withdrawn more than 2,000 agents. And in Chicago, officers are no longer stationed at Home Depot parking lots to question and arrest day laborers. Officials say the focus is now on more targeted operations rather than indiscriminate sweeps. The change comes after chaotic clashes between agents and protesters across the country, including the killing of two US Citizens in Minneapolis by federal agents. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe ICE's tactics went too far. Despite the dip in arrests, the number of people detained last month was still quadruple what it was in President Biden's last year in office. The Trump administration has repeatedly said it's actively pursuing criminals, though more than 40% of those arrested last month had no criminal record. The slight lull in arrests may also only be temporary. On multiple occasions last year, the White House said it was narrowing its focus, only to ramp up operations again weeks Later, A new investigation from the Times has found that there's a lucrative industry emerging around trying to get pardons for from President Trump. Through interviews and a review of court filings and lobbying records, the Times learned that a growing number of people are promising to help wealthy offenders get convictions erased and prison time cut short. In 2025 alone, lobbying firms disclosed receiving about eight times more money from clients trying to get clemency than the year before under Biden.

[News Analyst]

One really interesting example that I found of the transactional industry that has emerged around President Trump and clemency is a gu by the name of Joseph Schwartz. He owned a nursing home empire that collapsed amid allegations of endangering the residents and defrauding his employees, and he ultimately pleaded guilty to charges related to tax fraud and got a three year sentence.

[Tracy Mumford]

Ken Vogel covers the intersection of money and politics for the Times. He says before Schwartz reported to jail, he paid almost a million dollars to two men who talked a big game about their ability to gain access to the president and win clemency. That didn't seem to go anywhere, but he kept pushing.

[News Analyst]

He ended up having to report to jail at this minimum security facility in Otisville, New York. And he quickly started talking to a guy who had connections, different connections in Trump world to pro Israel evangelicals and Jewish figures. And this lobbyist ended up recommending that Joseph Schwartz and his family hire still other lawyers who were paid thousands of dollars more, who had connections to people who were involved in the clemency, including one lawyer who had connections to the pardon czar inside the White House and another lawyer who had connections to the White House counsel himself. It's not clear which, if any, of these efforts did the trick. But after just three weeks behind bars at Otisville, Joseph Schwartz was freed by a full and unconditional pardon from President Trump. What I found in reporting out this story and others like it is that this pardon industry really prioritizes the ability to find someone who can get to the President and make the case for the pardon and not remorse atonement and the unlikelihood of recidivism, which were really the traditional things that pardon applicants used to stress when they were making their cases.

[Tracy Mumford]

Joseph Schwartz, the man who received the pardon, didn't respond to requests from the Times for comment. In a statement, the White House press secretary dismissed the notion that lobbyists have influenced Trump's clemency decisions, such as saying anyone spending money to lobby for pardons is foolishly wasting their money, and the president doesn't even know who these so called lobbyists are. In Houston and New Orleans this weekend. The security lines at the city's airports stretched for hours, snarling people's plans and causing many to miss their flights. Right as spring break travel is ramping up. The airports are struggling with staffing amid the ongoing partial government shutdown. Funding has lapsed for the Department of Homeland Security, which includes tsa. Agents are still required to work, but they only got about 30% of their pay last week and will miss their paychecks entirely next weekend unless funding's restored. Congress is still at odds over that, with Democrats refusing to fund DHS without limits on immigration enforcement. For now, the worst delays seem to have been contained to Houston and New Orleans, with other airports operating normally. But some airlines are warning passengers to show up three to four hours early. One thing to note if you're traveling the TSA app, which shows wait times for security screenings, has not always been updated. During the shutdown, for example, the lines in Houston stretched all the way downstairs to baggage claim, but at times the app showed a 0 to 15 minute wait. And finally $52.64 for two bowls and two drinks at Chipotle. Americans on the go used to be all about the bowl.

[News Analyst]

Onions, cucumber, tomatoes, lentils.

[Tracy Mumford]

People were piling up the ingredients onto what social media deemed the slop bowl, the kind of healthy, kind of mushy combination, combination of protein and a grain and something green.

[News Analyst]

$19.

[Tracy Mumford]

I don't know.

[News Analyst]

Let me know.

[Tracy Mumford]

But customers are getting tired of them and the high price tags. Restaurant prices have been rising at a sharper rate than groceries. One analyst calculated that over the last four years the prices at Chipotle went up nearly 25%. Sweet green salads climbed almost 20. The price crunch hit low income consumers first and is now affecting the middle tier consumer who who was prime slot bowl demographic where there used to be lines out the door at lunchtime. Sales and traffic at chains like that are down. Sweet greens stock plunged 76% in the last year. At the same time, their Fast Food cousins McDonald's, Burger King, Taco Bell have been pushing their value menu deals, trying to scoop up newly price conscious customers. The bull centric companies may be eyeing that strategy now, potentially trying to roll out their own smaller offerings or more price conscious to win people back. Those are the headlines today on the Daily Inside the fight between the Pentagon and the tech giant Anthropic over how AI should and shouldn't be used by the military. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.