What the Final Polls Tell Us, and the Music Great Quincy Jones Dies

Summary

Podcast Summary: "The Headlines" by The New York Times
Episode: What the Final Polls Tell Us, and the Music Great Quincy Jones Dies
Release Date: November 4, 2024
Host: Tracee Mumford

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Overview

In this episode of The Headlines, host Tracee Mumford delves into the nail-biting final days of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, examines the potential impact of social media on election integrity, reports on the escalating conflict in Gaza, highlights Iran’s recent stance on regional tensions, and mourns the passing of the legendary music producer Quincy Jones. The episode provides in-depth analysis, firsthand accounts, and expert insights to offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of these pressing issues.

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U.S. Presidential Election: A Photo Finish

The 2024 presidential race has reached an unprecedentedly close margin, with both candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, neck-and-neck in key swing states. The polls indicate that the outcome could hinge on a mere few votes, likening the race to a "jump ball or a coin toss" (Michael J. Fox, [00:45]).

Polling Data Analysis

Ruth Gelnick, a Times colleague, breaks down the latest polling data, highlighting the competitive landscape:

• Swing States: Neither Trump nor Harris holds a definitive lead in any of the pivotal swing states.
• Voter Behavior: Trump maintains an edge among undecided voters, while Harris leads among those who have already cast their ballots.

Ruth observes, “The presidential race seems to be hurtling toward a photo finish” ([00:59]).

Campaign Strategies and Activities

Kamala Harris:

Harris has been actively engaging voters through various high-profile appearances:

• Saturday Night Live: Harris made a surprise cameo, showcasing her ability to connect with a broader audience. She reflected on her efforts, stating, “I see faith in action in remarkable ways. I see a nation determined to turn the page on hatred and division and chart a new way forward” ([01:53]).
• Michigan Engagements: Held a rally at Michigan State University and spoke at a black church in Detroit, emphasizing unity and progress.

Donald Trump:

Trump continued his campaign trail with spirited rallies:

• Pennsylvania Rally: Deviated from his prepared remarks, claiming, “I love being off these stupid teleprompters because the truth comes out” ([02:22]).
• Election Claims: Trump expressed regret over leaving the White House, stating, “I shouldn't have left. I mean, honestly, because we did so well” ([02:32]). He also reiterated his unfounded claims of voter fraud, asserting, “The ones that should be locked up are the ones that cheat on these horrible elections that we go through in our country” ([02:50]).

With over 70 million Americans having voted, both campaigns are fervently working to sway the remaining undecided voters. The final day of campaigning is set to be decisive, especially in Pennsylvania, deemed the “make or break battleground” ([02:38]).

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Social Media and Election Security: The Telegram Threat

As Election Day looms, concerns about potential unrest and interference are mounting, particularly regarding activity on the social media platform Telegram. With nearly a billion users and minimal moderation, Telegram has become a hub for far-right groups and extremist organizations.

Analysis by Paul Moser

Paul Moser, a technology correspondent for The Times, explores the extent of Telegram’s influence in the election context:

• Message Monitoring: Moser reviewed over a million messages across 50 channels with approximately 500,000 members. He identified a network of groups aiming to monitor and potentially disrupt the voting process.
• Extremist Mobilization: “This sort of sprawling network of groups that are set up to monitor and potentially interfere with the voting process” ([03:49]).
• Recruitment and Rhetoric: Extremist factions, including the Proud Boys, are actively recruiting and spreading disinformation. A notable recruitment poster read, “You will either stand with the resistance or take a knee and willingly accept the yoke of tyranny and oppression” ([04:21]).

Expert Insights

Security experts consulted by Moser emphasized the real-world implications of Telegram activity:

• “In some ways, what you see on Telegram is far more likely to be something that you see enter into the real world” ([04:33]).
• The platform is a conduit for organizing and potentially inciting violence, posing a significant threat to election security.

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International Affairs: Escalating Tensions in Gaza and Iran

Israeli Offensive in Gaza

The Israeli military has intensified its operations in northern Gaza, leading to a humanitarian crisis for civilians caught in the crossfire.

• Evacuation Orders: The Israeli military has issued widespread evacuation orders, forcing residents to choose between staying in conflict zones or attempting dangerous escapes.
• Personal Story – Rami Nasser: The Times interviewed Rami Nasser, a Gazan who received an automated evacuation message. Despite his efforts to flee, Nasser and his youngest daughter were injured when their improvised escape route was attacked. Tragically, six of his family members were later killed when their shelter was destroyed ([05:38]).

The Israeli military has remained silent on specific casualties, citing their focus on targeting Hamas militants.

• UN Condemnation: The United Nations Human Rights Chief has condemned Israel’s offensive, warning of “atrocity crimes, including potentially extending to crimes against humanity” ([05:38]).

Iran’s Response to Israeli Strikes

In a significant escalation, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed a “crushing response” to recent Israeli missile strikes on Iran.

• Shift in Stance: Initially downplaying the damage from Israeli strikes, Iranian officials have now adopted a more aggressive rhetoric.
• Regional Tensions: The Pentagon has responded by deploying additional ships and warplanes to the region, signaling heightened military readiness ([05:38]).

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In Memoriam: Quincy Jones

The episode also pays tribute to Quincy Jones, a titan in the music industry who passed away at the age of 91.

Career Highlights

• Musical Contributions: Jones began as a jazz trumpeter and arranged music for legends like Count Basie and Frank Sinatra. He composed acclaimed film soundtracks, including The Color Purple, and produced Michael Jackson’s Thriller, the best-selling album of all time.
• Awards and Honors: Over his illustrious career, Jones was nominated for 80 Grammys, winning 28.
• Cultural Impact: Beyond music, Jones’ influence extended to television and publishing. His company produced The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air and he played a pivotal role in launching Vibe magazine.

Anecdote illustrating his reach: Astronaut Buzz Aldrin approached Jones to share that he played Jones’s rendition of “Fly Me to the Moon” just before stepping onto the lunar surface, to which Jones humorously responded, “I freaked” ([08:32]).

Legacy

Jones left an indelible mark on both the music industry and broader culture, fostering connections that spanned from entertainment to space exploration. His passing marks the end of an era, celebrating a life dedicated to artistic excellence and innovation ([08:39]).

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Conclusion

Today's episode of The Headlines by The New York Times offers a comprehensive look at the high-stakes final moments of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the emerging threats posed by social media platforms like Telegram, the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, escalating international tensions involving Iran, and the loss of a music legend, Quincy Jones. Through expert analysis, personal stories, and notable quotes, the episode provides listeners with a rich and engaging summary of the day’s most pressing issues.

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For more in-depth reporting and updates, listen to The Headlines on the New York Times Audio app.

Transcript

[Michael J. Fox]

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[Tracee Mumford]

From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracee Mumford. Today's Monday, November 4th. Here's what we're covering.

[Michael J. Fox]

It's been decades since an election has been this close, and we've seen polls this close in the key swing states that will decide the election. So it really is of a jump ball or a coin toss who's going to win because the polls are so incredibly tight.

[Tracee Mumford]

My colleague Ruth Gelnick analyzes polling data. She says the presidential race seems to be hurtling toward a photo finish. The latest polls from the Times and Siena College show neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris has a definitive lead in any of the swing states. Looking at each candidate's advantages, Ruth says Trump is ahead among people who haven't voted yet but are likely to, while Harris has a lead among voters who've already cast their ballot.

[Michael J. Fox]

And then the other place where Harris is doing well across the seven states is that these late deciders, people who have made up their minds in the last few weeks or the last few days, are leaning towards Harris.

[Tracee Mumford]

While more than 70 million Americans have already voted, the candidates are still scrambling to keep up the momentum. Now, Kamala, take my Pamela Harris made a surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live.

[Donald Trump]

Because what do we always say? Keep Kamala and carry on a lot.

[Tracee Mumford]

Then she spent Sunday in Michigan, holding a rally at Michigan State and speaking at a black church in Detroit. I see faith in action in remarkable ways. I see a nation determined to turn the page on hatred and division and chart a new way forward. Trump, meanwhile, held a rally in Pennsylvania where he threw out his prepared remarks.

[Donald Trump]

And I tell you what, I love being off these stupid teleprompters because the truth comes out.

[Tracee Mumford]

Instead, he riffed about the 2020 election.

[Donald Trump]

I shouldn't have left. I mean, honestly, because we did so. We did so well. We had such a great so now.

[Tracee Mumford]

Trump said he should not have left the White House after losing to President Biden. And he devoted a chunk of his speech to unsupported claims of voter fraud, which has been a dominant theme of his rallies in recent weeks.

[Donald Trump]

And then they accuse you of being a conspiracy theorist, he's a conspiracy. And they want to lock you up, they want to put you in jail. The ones that should be locked up are the ones that cheat on these horrible elections that we go through in our country.

[Tracee Mumford]

Today for the final day of campaigning, both Trump and Harris will be in Pennsylvania, the state that their campaigns view as the make or break battleground of the 2024. On the eve of Election Day, the Times has been looking at how posts on one social media platform, Telegram, could offer a preview of potential chaos. Telegram has nearly a billion users and very little moderation, which has made it a favorite of far right groups who've been kicked off other platforms. Telegram was used in a small but significant way as a tool to organize on January 6, and its influence and reach have only grown since then.

[Paul Moser]

So to try to understand what was happening there, we looked at more than a million messages across more than 50 channels with about 500,000 members. And what we found is this sort of sprawling network of groups that are sort of set up to monitor and potentially interfere with the voting process. Other extremist groups who are ready to lash out in the event there are perceived problems, and then just a huge group of different right wing media accounts harvesting every problem that could potentially appeal with the voting and turning it into kind of disinformation memes.

[Tracee Mumford]

Paul Moser is a technology correspondent for the Times. He's been reviewing recent messages on Telegram, including those urging people to go in person and question officials about absentee ballots.

[Paul Moser]

Some of these really went even a bit further. And one chapter of the Proud Boys posted a recruitment poster that read, the day is fast approaching when fence sitting will no longer be possible. You will either stand with the resistance or take a knee and willingly accept the yoke of tyranny and oppression. We brought all of this to security experts and asked them, how seriously should we take this? What they said is, even though Telegram has a bit of a niche role, it is a place where the most extreme groups congregate. And it is also an important platform for these groups to organize. In some ways, what you see on Telegram is far more likely to be something that you see enter into the real world. If you see a meme or people talking on Telegram about pressuring voting officials, you're more likely to see them actually do it. And so Telegram in some ways, and this rhetoric that we're seeing, debating, taking action, sometimes violence against people, really indicates a potential possibility for what we could see in the coming days.

[Tracee Mumford]

Over the weekend, the Israeli military pressed on with its intense renewed offensive in northern Gaza. Since it ramped up operations there last month, Israel has been issuing a flood of evacuation orders. And the Times has found that the escalating violence has left many civilians facing a brutal reality. Both staying and leaving can be fatal. The Times spoke with one Gazan, Rami Nasser, who got an automated voice message a few weeks ago from the Israeli military telling him to leave the area. He'd already seen strikes up close. His 17 year old daughter was severely injured earlier in the war, so he packed up his family to leave. Nasser told the Times it seemed too risky to use the official evacuation route, which crossed active combat zones and had Israeli troops and tanks positioned along it. Instead, he and his kids took a shortcut. But as they crossed an intersection, shots rang out. Both Nasser and his youngest daughter were injured. It's not clear who fired on them. When Nasser told his extended family what happened, they decided it was too dangerous to try and get out and they chose to stay despite ongoing evacuation orders. A few days later, six members of his family, including his three siblings, were killed when a blast destroyed the building they were sheltering in. The Israeli military did not respond to specific questions about the Nasser family. It said it's been targeting Hamas militants who operate in heavily populated areas. The United nations human rights chief has condemned Israel's offensive in northern Gaza, saying, quote, we are facing what could amount to atrocity crimes, including potentially extending to crimes against humanity. In Iran over the weekend, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, threatened to deliver a crushing response to Israel for recent missile strikes on his country. Tehran had initially played down the damage caused by the Israeli strikes last month, raising hopes that it might de escalate the situation rather than kick off another cycle of retaliation. But Iranian officials have now changed their tone. The supreme Leader threatened both Israel and the U.S. the Pentagon announced late Friday that it's sending more ships and warplanes to the region. And finally, Quincy Jones, one of the most influential forces in American music for over half a century, died Sunday at 91. Jones began his prolific career as a jazz trumpeter. He arranged music for a who's who list, including Count Basie and Frank Sinatra.

[Donald Trump]

Fly Me to the Moon, Let Me Play among the Stars.

[Tracee Mumford]

He also composed film soundtracks including for the Color Purple and more. And he produced what still holds the record for best selling album of all time, Michael Jackson's Thriller. Over his career, Jones was nominated for 80 Grammys, and he won 28 of them. His influence also expanded beyond music. His company produced the Fresh Prince of Bel Air TV show, and he helped start the hip hop magazine Vibe. His reach even extended into space. Astronaut Buzz Aldrin came up to him at a party once to say that just before he stepped off the spacecraft, he played the cassette of Fly Me to the Moon that Jones had arranged and conducted. Jones said, quote, the first music played on the moon. I freaked. Those are the headlines today on the Daily what Trump and Harris TV ads tell us about how they think they can win the election. That's next in the New York Times audio app, where you can listen wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracee Mumpard. We'll be back tomorrow.