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What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? I'm John Mittlekof. This is the 3Now podcast and hopefully you're doing well out there in the real world and hopefully you're not in an area that's too cold. We're having a frigid ice storm or something coming through certain parts of the country. So stay safe, stay warm, and let's enjoy football because we only have three games left to this weekend in the super bowl. So buckle up. We have obviously a lot on the line. So what I did is I said, you know what, let's just do who has the most to gain what's on the line. And I just listed things and I went in kind of no particular order, but just things that excite me about this weekend because in these games and even last week, but in the second round in the championship game and obviously the super bowl are kind of when coaches and quarterbacks and franchises and general managers really define their career. So I wanted to look at just what's on the line for these guys from a big picture standpoint. And I didn't go in any particular order, but I just wrote down a bunch of stuff and just kind of going to rattle through it. Obviously it's fugazi Friday. I need to apologize to something that I said when it came to a fugazi that turned out to just be something you need. So we'll dive into that and then Stucky will join the show. We'll talk about the two games from a gambling perspective and some other football stuff. But that, that will be the show today. Bunch of you guys have sent me stuff for mailbag questions. We will probably go heavy mailbag next week with it being the, with it being the off week might just be like four straight mailbags Tuesday through Friday especially might I can bang out a bunch on one day and just release them throughout the week, which might allow me to help my wife a little bit more try to figure out this baby because it's a It's a fluid situation and a work in progress. It's not easy, as many of you know, but very, very fun and rewarding. So if you listen on Collins feed, make sure you subscribe to 3Now, Apple, Spotify, wherever you may listen. We also happen to be on Netflix. They had us back for the second week, which is very exciting. So we have now two weeks worth of shows up on Netflix. Check us out. If you want to watch his and hers or you want to watch Netflix, you got options. So you can find us there. And that'll be the show today. So let's just. Let's just dive in, I guess. Let's just start. The headline is going to be who has the most to gain because you win this weekend. You're off to the Super Bowl. You have the opportunity to change your life forever, right? You become a Super bowl champ. And the headliners in this sport are the quarterbacks and the coaches. So. And kind of the franchises, which include the general manager. So this is not in any order. I didn't rank it in importance. I just wrote down the things that fascinate and interest me the most. There is no disputing that the Denver Broncos are in an unprecedented situation. We have seen backup quarterbacks make runs in the playoffs, most famously Nick Foles, who has a statue with Doug Peterson. But Carson Wentz got hurt in the regular season. It was in the game against the Rams. Remember, Joe Buck told the story, he was taking a leak and Howie Roseman was taking a leak next to him and looked at him and said, carson Wentz towards acl. So Nick Foles had played games. Hell, he had played a playoff game the week before. So he had had momentum coming in to this weekend, to the Final Four. That is not the case with Jared Stidham, who hasn't thrown a pass this year, pretty sure didn't throw a pass last year. Now, this is a guy who was once drafted in the fourth round, who clearly Sean Payton has talked about glowingly now for a long time, multiple years. Josh McDaniels, who we would all agree, not a good head coach, one of the best offensive coordinators of his generation, loved him. Patriots drafted stidham in the fourth round. Then Josh McDaniels, when he became the head coach of the Raiders, traded for Stidham. So I'm always a believer in, like, who. Who believes in you? Who believes in you? And Jared Sit up, can say, well, Josh McDaniels and Sean Payton believe in me. And I go, that's, that's pretty Impressive. Who is the one backing you? And in football it's like the GMs and the coaches that believe in you in life it's like you know, you're. When you're trying to get a job and you put your references are. Some references are better than others. You know. And I would say this, the two offensive minds that think Jared Stum can play are pretty prominent NFL people now. Sean Payton, if you can win a AFC championship game with the backup quarterback who did not play all season long and hasn't thrown a rate a pass since the preseason after losing your quarterback, not in like normal football fashion, like guy breaks his leg, he leaves in the middle of the game. We've seen some of those this playoffs, right? Charbonnet just got injured, leaves the game, he's out. Kittle tears Achilles just out for the game. And you understand it in the moment but then the game goes on. You gotta can people replace them. Bodix has played the whole game shitty, walked off the field. So it's. We've never seen this before. And to me if Sean Payton can win a playoff game, an AFC championship game with a backup quarterback, who is it? Is this isn't a backup quarterback who had been a full time starter somewhere else, an older player like a Flacco type. That's not this case. This is not a former top 10 ish pick who had fallen on hard times like Daniel Jones, what he had become before he got injured or even what Sam Darnold has done resurrecting his career. This guy was drafted in the fourth round. Most people viewed just a backup quarter. You're a third day pick, you're going to be a backup quarterback and there's nothing wrong with that. You can be a backup quarterback for a long period of time, make a ton of money. Didn't Chase Daniels make like $15 million and through a very small amount of passes. But if you're able to win this game, I think you would argue clearly there is no topping beating Peyton Manning in the super bowl for the New Orleans Saints. But I think this would have to be the second most important win of his career. It would be something that would take his status as a coach to a completely different level. And you know what, in a weird way, in this offensive explosion of a league, I feel like Sean Payton, and maybe it's because Bo Nick's been a little up and down, doesn't quite get the same credit as he used to with the New Orleans Saints. It doesn't feel like he's held in the same regard Coward does. That's his guy. But like, just casual, people think of who we talk about. Offensive coaching, right? Obviously, Andy stole the show over the last five or six years, but it's clearly the younger guys. When discussing the offensive coaches, I mean, I mean, Kyle and McVey take way more energy and we exhaust way more conversation than we do on Sean Payton. So this would be a moment, like, pretty big muscle flex. Remember me? The guy who was the offensive wizard? The guy that turned Drew Brees into a first ballot hall of Famer? That guy whose offense dominated for 15 plus years down in the bayou. And this would be a moment that would just never be forgotten and would just solidify. I mean, Sean Payton's probably going to be a Hall of Famer no matter what, but this would be like rubber stamping it. To take Denver to the super bowl and win a game as a big dog with a backup quarterback that hadn't played would be pretty nuts. So Sean Payton to me can just be like double middle fingers to everybody. And given that it's Sean Payton, he might actually do that. Speaking of his opponent at coach, you know, it's weird, like, the way it ended in Tennessee. You can always tell, like, where the media is getting their information. I feel like a lot of people kind of were like, yeah, you know, he's just tough guy to deal with. I kind of understood where Tennessee was coming. You see, with Jeannie Buss, I've heard forever, like, Jeannie Buss, you know, just great person, really nice lady. I read this article, like, she would throw all of her brothers and sisters to great white sharks and not even think twice. She doesn't give a shit. She's ruthless. But over the years, like, oh, Jeannie Buss, great person, high character, great person to deal with. She hates her family. She's ruthless. And I felt like Vrabel at the end. Like, I've heard stories. I knew people that worked in Tennessee the last couple years. That owner's a buffoon, a moron. And one thing that has aged really well is Mike Vrabel was right. He deserved to make people uncomfortable. Like, he did a really good job. Him and John Robinson built the team. People forget this in Tennessee because I was, I was texting someone the other day, I was like, you know, Salah takes this job. I think the job's terrible. But you'd be like, well, they were winning a bunch of games not that long ago in Tennessee. It's like, yeah, they had Derek Henry, A.J. brown, Jeffrey Simmons, Taylor, Luan was one of the best tackles in the league. They had a Pro bowl center like they had really. Kevin Byard was a Pro bowl level guy. They had high end impact players, right? This Tennessee job is not that. And clearly the organization just fell apart the moment Variable walked out the door. And now you see him in New England, which a buddy of mine that's a Bills fan was like, I don't know if I could sleep if the Patriots win another Super Bowl. I mean they had a two decade dynasty. Even when I hear like, well, they didn't make a Super bowl or they didn't win a Super bowl for 10 years, they were always good even in that gap. I mean, shit, they lost a couple, oh seven. They literally didn't lose a game till the super bowl. And in 11 when they lost to the Giants, again, like they were fucking there. So a lot of teams like, hey, we haven't won a Super bowl in 25 years and haven't been there. Well, like they were always in the mix, always in these championship games. And now they're just back and it just starts thinking, are they going to be dramatically better over the next couple of years. And Mike Vrabel, you know, it used to happen a lot. A lot of the guys that were coaching in the 70s and 80s were former NFL players, right? And good ones, Ditka, Dan Reaves, like these guys played in the NFL and then just transition right to coaching. And this was a day and age before guys made the amount. I mean even money's all relative. But the, the, you weren't making huge cash coaching football in the NFL in the 70s or the 80s. Right now, you know, Mike Variable's making 15 plus million dollars a year. So you're making player money. He, hell, he makes more money now coaching the Patriots than he ever did per year playing. Probably not even close. But you resurrect the paths. I mean that's. He already has. But I don't care what your path is, you get to the super bowl. That's remarkable. And even if you're a dog going into that game, it would be a pretty incredible accomplishment. And listen, is it luck? Is it randomness? Like obviously Robert Kraft once upon a time didn't sign Mike Vrabel as a free agent like Bill did. So he came to the team because of Bill. You do get credit though for hiring Bill. It was pretty, I don't know if it was controversial at the time. I mean, it was for the jets because he quit, made a trade for him. But I don't Think teams were lined up around the block to hire Bill Belichick. So hiring Bill led them to getting Mike as a coach or as a player. And that relationship grew. And that's why he's coaching now, because of the relationship the Craft family has with Mike. And now Mike's just going to resurrect the Pats. And I think it's fair to say, even if he doesn't win this game, like their team, that's not going away. You would chalk the Patriots up to be really good moving forward. So Mike Vrabel, you get to the Super Bowl, I mean, he once told the busing guys he'd cut off his. Cut off his dick to win a Super Bowl. Now he's. He's walked that back a little bit, but he probably cut off a pinky toe, that's for sure. And he wins the Super Bowl. I think a lot of people around football would be like, the Patriots just won a Super Bowl. What. What are we doing? And this, to me leads to Drake May, like, you win this game and you're just in the Super Bowl. Is Drake May just one of the elites? Is Drake May just one of the. Is he a top five quarterback in the NFL? Is he a guy that's just going to be a top five quarterback moving forward? Because if that's the case, we know Vrabel is a good coach. If they have a top five, six quarterback, are they going to be, I don't want to say dynasty, but are they just going to be a powerhouse? And New England fans, yep, we're back. Bills fans would be like, God, we better get this coach right? So, you know, Drake May, all of a sudden you win this game. How many quarterbacks in the history of the league, year two been to a Super bowl list is pretty short. And obviously it changes the course of your career when that happens. And if you are to win one like Dan Marino got to one, I think it was in year two in 1984. Now, they lost to the 49ers, but it clearly took him to superstardom and he never looked back. Not from a winning standpoint, but of the way he was talked about. And obviously he deserved it because he was one of the best players in the league. Russell Wilson, right, Gets the league, wins the job, and then within a couple years, super bowl champion and became one of the superstars of the NFL for a decade plus. So you win one early. It also, you know, Rogers had this. Rogers hasn't been back to the super bowl since February of 2011. But once you check that box, like no one can put the pressure. He can't win the big one. You check that one off next to your name. Like everyone kind of leaves you alone. So Drake May wins this. Think of all the guys that he's compared to. And it's not even just his draft class. Caleb and, and Jaden Daniels, which Jaden is a rookie, had playoff success. Caleb this year had playoff success. You win the super bowl, hell, you get to the Super Bowl. That's that, that's Josh Allen. I mean we're talking, he's going to be in year nine. Still hasn't got there. So it's very difficult to do. Even if you tell me. Well, their path kind of broke. Yeah, you can give me all the lines and angles you want. It's, it's result oriented business. And if he's taking the first snap in Santa Clara here in a couple of weeks, like no one's really gonna be able to say, I do, I do think to the Sean Payton thing with Jared Stidham, I think Sean would get the most credit, right? Because of his game plan, because of his leadership. Maybe they run some trick plays, maybe they run a fake field goal or a fake punt or just do something. Like he's been liable to do something like that over the course of his career. But like Jared Stidham would be a guy that would kind of be remembered for a long time. It's like, remember when Jared Stum just came out of nowhere because Bo Nix broke his ankle and won the AFC championship game? He would just be one of those people considered in this weird bucket right now. If you were to win the championship, he would kind of elevate himself into this rare error of I don't even know how you, what you'd comp them to. You wouldn't comp him to Trent Dill for Brad Johnson because those guys played the entire year. Maybe you would, there would be some similarities to Nick Foles because you're like, well, they're definitely going to go back to Bo Nix. Now. Could Jared Stidham, who is, I think he signed a one year contract this year, could he, could he be a free agent? Like would people sign him if he has big moments, could he get more money on the open market? Would people sign him to be like a bridge quarterback? But all that stuff is secondary to. You kind of could just gain legendary status. Remember when Jared Stidham won the AFC championship game? I think it's safe to say no one would have saw that coming. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Folks, Playoffs. They've been nuts and I hope you've been cashing in on these unexpected moments on Hard Rock Bet. Two teams this weekend will punch their tickets to the big game. And when it comes to these standalone matchups, there's nothing better than betting a same game parlay. Lock in one game, stack your picks and build your script. And if you miss kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting, so you're never too late to find the action. If you haven't tried your first bet yet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get 150 in bonus bets. 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Call 1-800- Gambler Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Now the things that really fascinate me about the NFC Championship game start on the lower end. Mike McDonald. I if he was an offensive coach, we would be speaking about him. Like McVeigh on steroids. We we really would. But he's a defensive guy. And the other part about Mike, he's not that he's pretty understated. He doesn't come off as cocky. He doesn't part of Ben Johnson kind of ruffles some feathers, talk some he always looks angry. He he's always just fucking on edge. I mean he just looks like he hasn't slept much, doesn't eat much besides some protein and some peptide shots. Maybe, maybe pops like 60 millis of Adderall. He just looks like he's on Mike McDonald just seems like a buttoned up, well put together guy who really likes Football, Just a good football coach. Honestly, I know nothing about him as a human being. Seems like he's just a high character, normal guy. Could be wrong. I mean, you got to be careful about just judging people. But I just feel Mike McDonald, in this weird way for being this great coach, feels as normal of like, Mike, Sean Payton is nuts. Mike Vrabel is batshit crazy. Same thing with Sean McVay. Like, I feel like I don't even know that much about Mike Donald. Does he go to bed early? Like, what. What's his coaching style? I saw his pregame or his speech to the team a couple years ago when he got hired. Felt pretty normal. Seattle did a pretty good job of cutting it up with some music, but doesn't even feel like he's a yeller and a screamer. He clearly is really smart. And there is somewhat of a comeback for these defensive coaches. And he's leading the charge because Vrabel is truly like, obviously he knows football, right? He's a very, very intelligent football guy. In terms of schematics, no one talks about Mike. Like, I don't really know how much scheme he knows. He knows. Clearly, Mike McDonald's notice is like a genius, like a defensive wizard, which pretty rare. A lot of those guys, you know, beside Belichick, most of the guys having the success were either the CEO types, like true CEO types, not dealing with either side of the ball, or the offensive guys. And now you're just having this true defensive guru who's also a head coach, lead the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl. And if you think about it, John Schneider would get a ton of credit because he hired him. He would also accomplish the Howie Roseman to make it to multiple Super Bowls with two different coaches and two different quarterbacks. Think how impressive that is. Like, if the Rams win, Les need will go to his third Super bowl since whatever year that is. 2017. But it's been with the same coach. They've had two different quarterbacks, but it's been with the same coach. I was looking like, how many GMs have made it to multiple Super Bowls with different coaches and quarterbacks? Bill Polian was the GM of the bills in the 90s when they were going to a bunch of Super Bowls. And then he was the GM of the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning. So he's one guy that would check that box. But even he couldn't say how we can. I've won the super bowl with Doug Peterson, Nick Falls, Nick Sirianni, Jalen Hurts, and John Schneider would be Able to say Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Mike McDonald, Sam Darnold, that would be an incredible accomplishment. And he would be. I already think he is, but he would be a 100% lock hall of Fame general manager and would go down as one of, if not the best general manager of his generation. So, you know, he's not going anywhere. It's not even like he's an old guy. This combination of Mike and John Schneider and now Sam Darnold, who's kind of, in a weird way, like they're Jimmy Garoppolo. You know, he's a better version, but, like, that's kind of the role that they just need him to play. They're not asking for him to play like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. I don't need you to carry us. I need you to play under control and do the opposite of what C.J. stroud did. And if he's able to do that, I think there's a pretty good chance they win the super bowl, which would be insane. They were a 5 to 1. Their odds were plus 500 to win their own division, start the year, which I thought were crazy. I mean, they just won 10 games the year before. But the 49ers and the Rams were basically both. I mean, close to one to one to win the division in Seattle. Like, I think it's crazy. It's weird to say it now because we watched them play, how well they've operated, but, like, most people did not view this team as a Super bowl contender when the year started. And that sounds crazy now and then on the Rams, I think you have to ask yourself if Matt Stafford wins these next two games. One, he would. He'd be a lock hall of Famer at that point. Two Super Bowls, he would have one of the crazier careers of all time because most people probably a little unfairly don't take his Lions career that seriously because he did a bunch of losing, even though he was with an absolute clown organization, like one of the worst organizations in all of professional sports, which, again, to someone young, sounds a little crazier now. It's like, well, this Dan Campbell success version that they've had where they just went 9 and 8 and it feels like a disaster. 9 and 810 years ago with the Lions would have been a massive, massive win, even though they only played 16 games. So the number would have been eight and eight. But you know what I mean? And I just think Matt Stafford got to a real team with a real coach and a real structure. And started to kick ass and take names. He's probably going to win the mvp. And if he won the super bowl, have two rings in like less than five years, I think you would ask yourself, like, would he retire? I, I googled it today. He's made over $400 million in his career. That's only by teams. He's been pretty marketable since he's been with the Rams, So he's made a ton off the field as well. Like, he has made a boatload of money. And at this age, in his late 30s, he's on a one year contract. Like, what else would he have to prove? I this would really validate and everything. Not that anyone questioned when they made the trade, but. And Jared Goff's worked out pretty well for the Lions as well. But you wouldn't even be able to argue who won that bad boy. Now you could make the argument that the moment the Rams won the Super bowl, they 100% locked it up. But like, the Lions have been a consistent playoff team. Last year they were the one seed. The previous year they were in the NFC Championship game. But you win two Super Bowls. I'd have to wonder if Matt Stafford would seriously contemplate retiring. He's had back issues. I mean, he's just taking a lot of hits in his career. He's obviously got a young family. He just watched his boy Clayton Kershaw kind of go out on top. You have to wonder if that would factor in, which then would be obviously something we would talk about this offseason is like, well, who would be. What would the Rams do? A quarterback. That is a problem they would gladly try to tackle in a couple weeks if they win the Super bowl.
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If you.
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Sean McVeigh right now would gladly sign up. Two more wins, Stafford retires, then Stafford returns, and you lose this week. And last but not least, Sean McVeigh. He would join pretty rare company of guys with multiple super bowl rings. I look Today, he turns 40 in a couple days. If he just makes the super bowl, he will have made three Super Bowls. At 40 years old. Think how crazy that would be. Three Super Bowls. I mean, technically, as I'm recording this, he's 39 years old. Just having the opportunity to get back at 39 years old to have this much success. I think early on, people push back. Like everyone's blowing McVeigh, talking about John Harbaugh, who just got five years, $100 million, won a Super bowl almost 15 years ago, has not been back to one. Right. We just saw him in the AFC championship game, a couple years at home, loose with the MVP at quarterback. So. And we all agree, like, John Harbaugh is a really good coach. That's a great hire for the giants. Sean McVeigh is going to go to three before John Harbaugh is 63 years old. I mean, think of he would be in a little bit of a situation and these TV networks, Amazon would kick Herb street to the heart, the sidewalk in a heartbeat to get Sean McVay. Sean McVeigh would get to the point where he'd have so much money, so much success. Like, what's he doing this all for? Is he just going to try to win like four now? And if, and if Stafford retired, could McVeigh just be like, I'm going to take a couple years off, maybe I'll even come back to the Rams, but I need to take a breather, you know, And I think Sean McVeigh could join a list. You know, clearly, Andy, these last couple years, multiple time super bowl winner, Belichick's the most famous, has the six. You know, when I was a kid in the 90s, everyone talked about Bill Walsh and Bill Parcells, Parcells one, two. Walsh won three. Seaford technically won two more. Even though most people, like, give Bill Walsh more of the credit. Like, people talk about Bill Walsh like He won the fourth. But Seifer, you know, he retired in 88, which I think he regretted. Obviously, Mike Shanahan became, you know, a legendary figure in the Elway career when they went back to back. We've had a lot of really good coaches. I mean, legends, Harbaugh, Tomlin. Like, guys, that one super bowl changes the course of your life, changes the course of the way we discuss you.
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Right?
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Look, Bruce Arians won the, won the Corona super bowl. And we speak about Brady and Bruce Arians and Tampa Bay winning that super bowl. So Sean McVeigh would have two. It would be enlisted. Stucky and I discussed this. Whoever wins this game, depending on who their opponent is, is a big favorite in the Super Bowl. And if Jared Stum is able to pull this off, they would be a massive favorite in the Super Bowl. So, like Sean McVay, whoever can get through this, but specifically McVay, people are going to be picking him to win his second. And unlike Stafford, like, Stafford's career is really in two parts. It's like the Lions part where he was making a ton of money. Guys like Rogers were trying and like pro scouts, like, I'm telling you, this guy's really good. And all fans were like, well, he loses all the time. He throws a bunch of interceptions. Rogers, like, I'm telling you, he's ever been as good as me. He just plays for the shitty team. Never forget, Aaron Rodgers was the one guy who was always pounding the table for Matt Stafford throughout the 2000 and tens. And then McVeigh and Shanahan fought over trading for him, and McVeigh got him and clearly changed the course of his Life. Now, could McVay have pulled one off with Goff? Maybe. But at the time of their relationship, it was so fractured that they had to go the other way no matter what. But I think that we've just never seen anything quite like this. I was young for Pat Riley winning with the Lakers, but pretty sure, you know, I don't think Pat Riley was this young, you know, had won those NBA championships before he was 40. So you do something like that at this age. There's a reason when you see these interviews, like, who are they interviewing? How old is this guy? People want the next this. And here's the reality. There's usually one Bezos, there's usually one Elon, there's usually one Tiger, there's like one Sean McVay. They're not growing on trees. They don't. He's a pretty unique individual, and there'd be no disputing if he not just wins this game on the road in Seattle. It'd be one of the biggest wins of his career. But then that game at Levi's, being able to win his second super bowl at the home of his former mentor, Kyle Shanahan, who obviously a rifle would be a pretty big moment for the guys. I mean, honestly, Seattle or the Rams, winning that game at Levi's would sting a little bit to, to Kyle, but yeah, he'd have two. Kyle have none. So it'd be hard to discuss. Like, when we're discussing the top young offensive coaches, there would be Sean McDermott or Sean McVeigh would kind of be on a level by himself. I mean, shit, he. He'd be one behind Andy Reid. Think about that. So I. It's going to be fascinating to watch. I'm. I'm really excited because we only got 61. We only got 180 minutes left of football. 180 minutes left of football. And they say anywhere between like 11 to 12 minutes of actual game time. So you're talking under 40 minutes left of actual action on the field. So we got to enjoy it. Before we dive into Stucky, though, I do want to hit on a couple fugazis. And I was adamant when we were building the. The baby's room and loading it with clothes. I just thought we were on drugs. I said, in what world can a baby who's still in your belly have this many clothes? Honestly, you could have made the argument if we went clothes for clothes, like piece of individual clothing, he might have had more than me. And I don't even obviously wear that many clothes. I have the majority of my wardrobe never gets put on, especially like sports coats and hell, I don't even wear jeans that often. But I was wrong because anyone listening to this with the newborn baby or have gone through that stage, they go through 10 to 12 pieces of clothing. I mean, they are pissing and shitting all over themselves at every hour, starting in the morning, through the afternoon, through dinner time, through the night. You are constantly just taking clothes, throwing it on the ground, grabbing a new piece of fresh clothing with a diaper and redressing your baby. And there is shit and piss everywhere. And what's weird, my wife used to always make fun of me because I would never hold other people's babies. In full disclosure, I was always a little nervous. One, I didn't want the pressure if I dropped it or whatever. And then you start holding your own baby. I actually took the, the mindset. It's like golfers deal. I'm not going to play Augusta until I make the Masters. Now I, I would gladly. I'd play Augusta. If anyone listening this is a member there and wants to take me in the. When it's open. I, I am more than game, but it just kind of happened. The first baby I truly helped. Not that I didn't hold little kids. I have nephews and my cousins have kids and my friends have kids. But like truly just constantly holding a baby and you just realize, like, how am I going to do this? The, the diapers, the changing, the wiping, it becomes second nature. You start being like a pit crew on F1 or NASCAR. But it's just the constant clothing. So I was wrong. The amount of clothes that feel, especially to a guy, a little outrageous is probably not because you are going to fire through the inventory and that little kid is going to dominate and I repeat, dominate the washer and dryer. You're kind of whatever your rotation was to wash your gym clothes, your normal clothes. Get in line, buddy, because you are going to have no shot. You are going to be waiting in line and then whenever you think it's your turn, he's going to have more stuff going there. Or she. So I was wrong about that. You need a lot of clothes. You really do. And you go through diapers. No clue how much a bag of diapers costs, but you go through a lot. They are just getting worked, I mean, dominated. That kid can blow out a diaper like any kid, just on repeat, which is good. You find out from the doctor, you know, you got to get those bowel movements you get, you got to get that, you know, the, the bad stuff working in and out. And he is. So it's a good problem to have. And the other thing is like, I am a big believer and I tell people this, like, I'm not one of those guys who can work fresh on three or four hours of sleep. Like I, I do need sleep. And there are some people that, you know, don't need much sleep and can operate at a high level. We all know them, right? Some people can wake up at the crack of dawn. I remember a buddy of mine who worked on Gruden staff. I was like, what time does he actually get to the office? They're like, it's true. He's there, you know, before 5:00am they're like, but his secret is he ain't burning the midnight oil. He's out of there an hour after dinner. Which makes sense. You can't start work at 3:45 and be kicking ass at 9:00 clock at night. You start, you start dipping. He's like, he's out of there, right? So some people, we, we all work different schedules, but there are times when we just don't have a choice, right? And I've been someone who's been a pretty consistent sleep routine as I've gotten older, especially in my 30s, life, you get a little more serious about life. You're not screwing around during the week. You're not just up randomly for no reason. You got, you know, your career starts being at a different level. You got to focus up. I'm in bed between 9:30 and 10 and usually out between 10 and 10:30 and up, depending on what time I go to bed. Sometime between 5:45 to 6:30 range. Despite sometimes during the season when we're working late, sleeping a little bit longer. But my routine's been bang, bang, bang, bang. I'm a routine guy. I thrive in routine. I hate the unknown, the outer routine. Well, when we went to meet this pediatrician, he's like, one piece of advice I will give you is you kind of got to let go. You have to embrace whatever your routine is you're going to have to work around it because the baby has no routine. And the one thing you realize is like, my sleep's all over the place. Last night I was reading that laker article at 2:30 in the morning, in bed, wide awake and get up at 8 o' clock and you're fine because you don't have a choice. You have to be. And watching my wife get up at 4am to feed them and then not really go back to bed and back out of bed at seven, it's like you just kind of power through. And a lot of people have said, like, listen, this too shall pass and you'll get through and you'll smile about this. And the first couple days I was pissed off. I'm like, this fucking sucks. I need some sleep. My head's not there. And you kind of realize part of any situation is where you put yourself mentally. It's like you just got to embrace it. Just embrace it. Obviously there are times when you get frustrated when you just change a diaper and you're ready to set them down. It's midnight and you think, hey, we're going to go to bed. Then all of a sudden you hear just a massive fart that's wet and you're like, oh my God, it's all over the clothes. You got to re change it. And when you wipe them, you start screaming. I've just kind of embraced it. And the last couple days have been much better because you're not going to sleep that much. But guess what? A lot of people are in situations when they're not sleeping that much. If you're bitter about it and angry, it's going to suck. And again, I'm five days in or six days in. We'll see how this lasts. You told me this last another six months. You're gonna, you're gonna mentally break. And sometimes you got to give yourself a little patience, little grace. You're allowed to be angry, but like, you also got to be careful because you can't just be pissed off when you're changing the diaper because the kid feels your, your kind of energy. So it's, it's really just try to embrace Team no Sleep, put a smile on your face and just be a helping hand. So my fugazi was realizing that I was actually wrong about the fugazi because however many clothes that you think are extra, you probably need more. Let's dive into Stuckey. Okay, we're coming down the home stretch here. It is bittersweet to stay the least. And pretty sad, to be honest with you, when you just look up and you realize you only have three football games left. I was already kind of watching like the Dubai Desert Classic this morning, just trying to, like, realizing there's not going to be much to watch moving forward. I already miss thinking about no Monday Night Football.
- [38:53]
A
I.
- [38:54]
B
You can hate on Thursday Night Football, but when it's gone, you. You just start clicking the channels and you're like, what am I supposed to do? I actually watched a decent college basketball Stucky last time. I mean, Arizona, Geez. I mean, they look like an NBA team right now, just dominating people. LeBron's kid can't even get on the floor because they're so good. But we got a couple games. We're both fathers, we're not sleeping much.
- [39:18]
A
And we just power through three to go. Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's kind of sad. Goes by so quick every year. I just hope we'll talk about this game. I actually did bet some early Denver at five and a half nines come down a little bit. I'm hoping number one for my bet to win, but number two, I'm hoping for the Patriots to win by three because I just, first of all, selfishly, and for you, too, we're in. We talk about the super bowl for two weeks, one game. And if it has to be like Jared Stidham versus the Rams or Seahawks, it's way less intriguing. And I think the look ad lines, just from a competitive standpoint, way less of a chance that we get a competitive game. I think the look at lines are like the. I think I saw the Rams or the Seahawks, they're like eight and a half, minus eight and a half against the Broncos. Oh, my God, three and a half versus the Patriots. So, yeah, I hope that the Patriots win a very close game is. Is my desire there. But the Ramseahawks Part 3 should be a doozy. I mean, those teams played twice this year, separated by one yard and one point.
- [40:58]
B
Well, let's, let's rewind to last week. And I think if you go into that locker room and all those guys crying because, let's face it, of New England, Denver, clearly Houston had no shot the way CJ Was playing. But Buffalo, Buffalo would have been the one team that probably a lot of people would have picked, right, if, if they would have got to this game and got to the Super Bowl, Sean McDermott gets fired. The situation in that game with, you know, some of the calls, obviously Josh's play Was all over the map. Kind of a little end of a little era. And they're kind of hoping to do the Tony Dungey to Gruden. I mean, we've seen this handoff before, but we've also seen it gone the other way. So I mean, this is. The Ravens are in a similar situation though. You know, you watch the two press conferences. Steve Bushada just got up and talked like he can handle himself. Right. Whether you agree or disagree with what he's saying, he ain't afraid to let the bullets start flying at him.
- [41:57]
A
The, the.
- [41:58]
B
I mean, Terry Pula, I don't follow hockey, but it turns out that the Buffalo Sabers beside the jets have the longest running playoff drought. I know the man got rich off oil, but you know, in that business, especially back in the day, it took balls. I, you know, more than I think being like Elon developing some of these companies and Pagula's got balls, created his own company, made a bunch of money. But you watch him in, in front of a microphone, you went, this organization's picking Josh Rosen instead of Josh Allen away from being the Jets. I mean, they are, I mean, this notion that they're like the Ravens with ownership, I don't know. I mean, I watch that. It's like kind of felt for Josh is this guy. What was your take on, on that situation?
- [42:45]
A
Yeah, I mean, first I will say, I mean Allen deserves some criticism for that game. He, you know, turned was sloppy, didn't play his best game. But if you look at Allen's body of work in the playoffs, he's been one of the best playoff quarterbacks of all time. If you just look statistically and including this game, almost every single one of his playoff losses, it's the defense that let, let him down. And I mean, if you just go back and look at the Bills playoff losses under Allen, they're consistently scoring in the 30s and they're losing these games because of their defense. Additionally, coaching and like little decisions. McDermott, you can go back to that 13 seconds and how they handled that with the kickoff, the Kelsey up the up the seam and then this game at the end of the half, I don't know what they were trying to do with Allen. Like no timeouts, there was just no upside there. Like the time was going to run out and he fumbles. Denver gets a fuel goal. That's the. That now the game can play out differently. But that ended up being ultimately the difference in the game. Again, that went to overtime. That those three points, it's massive. So I do think that there had, just after all of these postseason failures, there had to be a scapegoat. I think McDermott, he, he has his philos as a head coach, but I think he'd be an outstanding defensive coordinator, so he can still scheme up defense and different looks. But Bean, I think is getting off like scott free here. It's not like this roster has been built optimally. So there's, there's been flaws on how they've built it, the help that they've given Allen. So I'm curious to see where it goes. But there had to be a fall guy. It's. There is just. And the disappointment. I'm like the, the disappointment that must be felt by the Bills. And that's. You could see it right after with Alan's tears and the comments from Dawkins and company. You know, Bosa throwing his helmet and look, the Patriots just. Tough life. You're a Patriots fan. Think about them like they were the most successful team in the NFL for two decades, winning all these Super Bowls. They have to rebuild and then they're rebuilding and in the dumps while the AFC is just dominated by Mahomes. And then also you have Lamar and, and Allen. The first time they're back relevant with the easiest scheduled NFL history. They get the AFC championship game and only have to go through Jared Stidham.
- [45:39]
B
So can you, can you imagine being a Bills fan if the Patriots do take care of business and they're just back in the Super Bowl? I mean, that would be tough. I had a die hard Bills fan text me if the Patriots were to win the super bowl, truly cripple me. And I was like, I get it. Because it would be like, how is this fair? Because I just think I would imagine Buffalo had to view Jacksonville once they won that game. I mean, they might have thought Jacksonville was the best team in the dance, you know, and then they beat him and they go, it's on. We can go beat Bo Nix and then take our chances. Especially if we get New England. Right? I mean, we're comfortable playing them and now we're at home, we don't have a coach. Our franchise feels in shambles. It's just a, It's a crazy turn of events. And that's. I think the cool part about the playoffs is what's on the line and from good and bad, right. I mean, it's C.J. stroud. It's hard to even think about him the same. Right? And I think it's fair. I saw Orlovsky Apologize today for saying 31 other quarterbacks would have won that. It's like, what. What are we doing apologizing for. That's legitimately one of the worst halves of football you will ever see in NFL history. The majority of our lives. 80s, 90s, 2000s, he. He would get benched if he would have been 5x the player that he already was. I mean, that's just. This is football. People get benched, other positions, you don't even hesitate, right? The quarterback. And he's not good enough to be treated like that. And he. There's no disputing. He lost them the game because their defense, he would throw a pick in, their defense would come on and Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter would look like the two best pass rushes you've ever seen. It's like these guys got to be like, what is going on? Guys just go three and out. Stop handing them the football. It's Houston's defense truly was incredible. And I'm pretty sure Deal Hunter is now a free agent. So who knows? I mean, I mean these have some people lined up to get his services. He's no guaranteed to come back.
- [47:38]
A
And who knows what happens with Stroud now. But yeah, I mean, with the way that he was playing, you had to try something. I mean, there were. It was. You could tell it was over. And then he had no confidence. And they. And it's a shame because the Tech, like the Texans have to look at this as a lost opportunity because the state of the afc, right. Like. And who's. Who's left. And now you see what happened with Denver. And yeah, the Texans had a 2000 type. 2000 Ravens type of defense. Right? That. And then if you look at this. The other thing is if you look at the AFC quarterbacks, the quarterbacks that have won the AFC championship since 2000, it is basically Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Brady and a burrow mixed in there. Flacco and burrow in there. And then in. Back in 2000, you had Dilfer and obviously it was a different. Different error, but different deal for just don't make mistakes. That's like what the Ravens asked him to do with their defense. And if Shroud just didn't make mistakes and manage the game, they could have easily won the afc. So they have to feel it was a lost opportunity. And where do they go from here? What happens with Stroud? Like, it feels like that rookie year was a very long time ago from the last time we saw Stroud consistently playing at a high Level. So yeah, there's, there's a lot of. And the AFC was just down overall this year for a lot of teams. And this is across the board in the NFL. There's a lot of like, look in the mirror moments and all right, where we need to change. I mean, think about even across the NFL, the only division without a coaching change is the NFC North. That's it. There's so many. And they have, there's some coordinator changes, but from a head coaching perspective, that's it. There's a lot of changes. And like the Texans are at an inflection point. The Bills, I just think after so many playoff disappointments, you, you couldn't just run it back with the same staff and same cast of characters. You needed like, I feel like they would come out so hungover next year and like just deflated and so they needed some new juice, something to inject change. But yeah, the Bills, Texans, Ravens off seasons are going to be super interesting. The Steelers also, right. Like they finally said, had enough. So there's a lot of these teams that are like, all right, let's. It's like they've kind of reached the point where like this was the year where right. You could chalk up a lot of what I think happened is a lot of teams and part of this was fair. A lot of teams for that were contenders for six to seven years in the afc just said, well, it was Mahomes, like we, we were never going to beat Momes and the Chiefs, right. Like that. It was just we. There's nothing we could do. The Chiefs were inevitable. But in a year where the Chiefs don't make the playoffs, right. The Ravens don't make the playoffs and it's wide open and when you don't get there, I think it's forcing a lot of these teams to, to actually make some changes this season, which is going to make next year very, very interesting.
- [51:17]
B
Even Jim Harbaugh, you know, from a look standpoint like Jim Harbaugh hired Mike McDaniel though they have way more in common. Mike, his run scheme. I mean he, he, he basically mentored under Forester, who Shanahan's guy forever going back to Washington. He, he's big on his wide receivers blocking. I, I know the, the little guys in Miami, but that's a staple of kind of how he's been taught philosophically. They actually have a lot in common. And I, I give Mike some credit. Like he clearly could have picked several jobs, I'm sure and he went with the job we got Two offensive linemen coming back. You would get a ton of credit if you take Herbert to the next level. And it also kind of shows like there's no disputing that the Eagles would have given him a ton of money to be their coordinator. And this Eagles gig is risky.
- [52:09]
A
Right.
- [52:10]
B
You either are going to be a star and you get a head coach or you're going to get fired. Like there's not really much middle ground where it's like, oh, you just become one of the solid offensive coordinators in the league. So I you know, clearly he went.
- [52:22]
A
That'S a very volatile situation. Yeah. Yeah, that's.
- [52:27]
B
AJ's gonna be gone. So it's just. It's kind of interesting to how it all played out because to me Mike, I, you know, you see some. I think petsing in in was Detroit. Washington just elevated Blau. I. I think McDaniel was clearly the most intriguing coordinate guy that was 100 going to be a coordinator, not going to get a head coach. Like Stefanski was going to get a head coaching job. I kind of thought McDaniel might go with Robert, but I thought the Tennessee Titans job. Honestly, it kind of shocked me. It just shows you how obsessed he is with being a head coach. I think that job is much closer to Arizona than it is like Baltimore buffalo.
- [53:05]
A
Yeah. I McDaniel. Well, I think one thing we know is McDaniel clearly values nice weather. So that's. I might have played but he. Yeah. I mean I wanted my ideal this A pipe dream is a Ravens fan in the off season is. I wouldn't. I wanted like if I if I could just craft whatever staff I wanted, I would want. I want to mentor head coach Flores. D.C. mcDaniel OC obviously very unrealistic.
- [53:42]
B
But.
- [53:44]
A
Yeah, McDaniel I think is will be an excellent offensive coordinator. And the Chargers have they just. They're continuing to build the roster to fit par ball and this year they were never going to win the Super Bowl. I mean I guess they could have but the KFC is wide open. But after those offensive line injuries, you just weren't going to go win three or four games in the playoffs without your star tackle. So you get your offensive line like they, they need to still address the interior but you get your tackles back. Like that's just massive. Like you get. That's basically like you get like two tackles back. You know, Pro bowl caliber tackles back. The question then so I think the charter is in a really, really good spot next year. The question just becomes is is it is There something with Herbert on the big stage now, the sample size is so small, but he looked horrendous in his last playoff game and then this year looked really poor. That's like the question they have to answer. We tend to overreact to these things over small sample sizes. Right. We say this about coaches in college. Right. A lot of in college basketball used to always say this about certain coaches. They can't win the big, they can't win the national title, they choke in March. But it's like the NFL, it's one and done and it's hard to win. And then once you do win, people say this by like, Jay Wright, Villanova, look at Martin.
- [55:11]
B
I mean, Mario had a pretty big year down the stretch, right. To kind of shut some people up.
- [55:15]
A
Yep. Ryan Day, they said that about him until last year. So I, I think Herbert will be fine. I think it was a great hire. You get the tackles, you address the interior offensive line, you just infuse a little bit more talent to that roster and they're going to be extremely dangerous. Like as if I had to pick someone right now to win the AFC next year, like if you made me pick, I'd probably pick the Chargers as of right now without doing a lot of off season work. So I thought that was an outstanding hire. But there's going to be a lot. There's just a lot of change in the AFC across the board. So it's going to be this is that it's definitely a transition off season for so many teams.
- [55:59]
B
Totally. Let's just dive right in. I didn't know this till I, I heard someone mention this. I always saw the Senior bowl director had to change a bunch of flights for players, which I'm pretty sure the Senior Bowls next week. And it has to do with this crazy cold front that you just told me before we hopped on that is coming right through up through the south, up through where you live in Kentucky and maybe far enough in Denver because I checked the weather this morning. I mean la, last week in Denver, my cousin was there. I mean, on TV it looked beautiful. Right. I mean, we've had Denver playoff games that look frigid and freezing. I think it was, you know, low 40s, but the sun was out. It, the high is supposed to be like 20 degrees with a low of like in the low single digits. So this cold front that's coming, like to me that has an impact. I mean, playing in the cold, you watch these games throughout the playoffs and even late in the regular season. I, I Mean, it's just a different sport, really is. I mean that, that day with Jacksonville, they open up the scene in Jacksonville and the kids are in the pool and then they go later that day to like the Midwest. It's just like, you know, Chiefs have had games that are in the negatives. I was telling my wife, I'm like, there was this playoff game because Minnesota was getting a new stadium. They played outside and players the next week reported they had frostbite on their fingers. That was like 10 years ago. That wasn't like in the 60s. So it just did. These playoff games get fucking cold. It's harder to catch, it's harder to hold the ball. I mean, look at C.J. stroud. I think it's fair to red flag him. Not a cold weather quarterback.
- [57:48]
A
I mean, that's.
- [57:48]
B
He's got the. Who's his comp. Jared Goff kind of. That's the way he plays. A touch. He's a touch bastard. I, I'm not overthinking this one. I just think it's. It's absolutely impossible to not play a snap all season long and be the true backup quarterback where you are servicing the defense in practice. Because this is not, you know, most people. High school football could be a little different once you get to college and definitely the NFL, the starter takes all the reps and it's been like that forever. And the backup does not take reps. Running the offensive game plan. And Sean Payton made a comment, I think, I don't know who it was too, but like, he'd get mad at Vance Joseph because he'd be lighting him up. And that, that's. I remember Kyle said that about per Fred Warner, like he used to light us up. Well, he's running the other team's place, so, you know, the guy might have talent or whatever and be a good player, but he's not focused, focusing on like, hey, our third down packages. I mean, he is in the meeting room. But not to play, to come back in an AFC championship game in the middle of January when you haven't taken reps, like real game reps since August, which was preseason, that feels like insurmountable to me. I mean, I, I just, I just have to short that. And I know, I'm sure you and a lot of people are like, hey, the number. This is still kind of crazy and clearly Denver's not bad, but I kind of. Is Denver's defense as good as we kind of thought it was? I mean, definitely not as good as last year. And this is a huge moment for Sean Payton. I mean this would be a legendary win for a coach. Legendary like this would be beside the super bowl, his most impressive win of his career. I mean now an underdog at home. I just, I just, I'm taking New England in the points. Don't feel great about it, but it's just the logic of the backup quarterback. I have to bet against it in this situation. It'd be one thing like FS and some of these guys when they got to play. If you had told me that like hey B. Knicks did this a couple weeks before Christmas. He's won some games. He showed promise. He's gotten to a little rhythm. He's not as good. But I'd be like okay, yeah, I, I would factor. But it's like this guy hasn't played at all this.
- [59:54]
A
Yeah, very, very, very difficult game to handicap. Lot of uncertainty. Like there's, there's a much higher chance in this game than many other. I mean this is the largest home dog in a conference championship game since the merger. For what it's worth of the past 50 years though, home dogs in the NFL playoffs of four or more points doesn't happen often. 90 against the spread. Never every single one is covered. Saw with the Panthers earlier this year I, so I played the Broncos. My, I'll give you my case and a lot of the, my thoughts on the game but I mean it's really going to come down. No one really knows what this is going to look like but you know, I would have made the Broncos like a two point favorite. I mean they closed a one and a half point favorite against the Bills and won. The Bills are rated a little higher in my opinion than the Patriots. I would have made this like two, two and a half. So at five and a half, that's assuming, you know, Knicks is worth like a touchdown that's aggressive that the, the quarterbacks that are worth a touchdown to their backup are the elite quarterbacks in the league. And I don't think Knicks is that Nicks has had a great season, has done a lot of things late in games, but he's, you know, we're, he's operating under an elite play caller with an elite offensive line and his numbers are far from elite. I think he's like a league average quarterback and Stidham at least has been in the system for couple years. He was, he was the first guy that Peyton signed when he got to Denver so obviously he saw something that he liked. And Stidham has four starts, two in 2022, two in 2023. If you filter out all quarterbacks over that span with at least 100 drop backs, there's 82 of them. He's like 20th in success rate, 30th in EPA. So. And he played by. And those offenses that he played with are really bad. The offensive lines were hard. So some of the things that he has working for him here, a great offensive line, he does have a little sneaky mobility and a great play caller, and he's playing at home. Those, those are not insignificant factors, especially the offensive line and being able to get protection. The other things that are working in their favor here is obviously the home crowd. Playing at Denver in January is not easy, but the noise that New England's going to have to deal with with an inexperienced quarterback. And I, I just. There's the un. All the pressure now is on New England. Right? Like you're. You have to beat Stidham to get to the Super Bowl. Well, the Denver can play loose here and then the uncertainty could work in their advantage. Work to their advantage. Like the Patriots don't really know what to expect here. You're probably going to get the kitchen sink from Peyton. You're. You're gonna get all kinds of new books, new packages, any trick plays that they've had, you use them here. You just. This is your. You just try to get to the super bowl where anything can happen. So that uncertainty could work in their favor. Additionally, this Denver defense, I do think they're a tad overrated. They're not. Some people talk about them in like the same stratosphere as, you know, Seattle and Houston. I don't think that they're there, but they can get a lot of pressure, especially at home. I mean, they're top five in pressure rate. Top five and pressure rate without blitzing. And this New England offense is very vulnerable to pressure right now. Will Campbell looks like a traffic cone out there. I mean, owe looked like an all Pro and then obviously all the Texans dominated him. And May, you have to go back, go back to the regular season. May didn't face a top 10 defense the entire year outside of Cleveland and road road. Cleveland's defense is nothing special. He finally has faced good defenses and he hasn't looked great. And he has six fumbles, two interceptions in two games. And he got to play at home. That pressure and this is a patriotism that's been very lucky with when it comes to fumbles. This Denver defense, you know, they're going to be up a little Ewing theory Here, like, all right, our star players out, everyone else kind of steps up for a game.
- [63:58]
B
I mean, Bonito's got to be licking his chops going against Will Campbell.
- [64:01]
A
Yeah, that could be problematic. And the biggest difference, this Patriots, the Patriots defense, they've been blitzing a ton lately, like, for like Flores type levels over their past four games. But they went up against and you look at their schedule, they played nothing but backups all year, beat up offenses. Even last week you have Stroud playing like that. The right. The Texans right tackle was out. Nico Collins was out. They lose Dalton Schultz in the first quarter, but they've been blitzing a ton. The biggest difference between the Broncos and the Chargers and the Texans is the Broncos have an elite offensive line. Those teams have two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. So Stidham should have some time here. I'm curious to see if the Patriots still blitz a ton. I just think this is too much of an adjustment. Now, to your point, this is the first time in NFL history a player will start in the championship game or later without throwing a pass in a live game. So we've never seen it before. So there is a chance that it ends in his. Esther, I don't think anyone really knows, but we did see like maybe we saw Philip Rivers take five years off and you know, they should have won it at Seattle was the best, you know, arguably the best defense in the NFL. Maybe he's okay and, you know, look, Rivers knew the system. He had familiarity with the system like Stidham does.
- [65:25]
B
So.
- [65:26]
A
Yeah. But no one knows. It also could just be a complete disaster. So the other thing is the Patriots run defense is legit when healthy, and they're now healthy when their linebackers are healthy. Milton Williams is back. They had a couple other guys that were hurt down the stretch. Their run defense kind of cratered a bit, but when healthy, you can't really run on them, which that gives me a little bit of hesitation because. A little bit of worry because you want. With a backup quarterback, you want to be able to rely on your run game. I. I don't necessarily know if Denver will be able to do that, but I'm going to trust Peyton, this offensive line and the Denver defense to get enough pressure to keep this close. I also played the Denver first. I played Denver first quarter plus a half point. If so I think the uncertainty works in their favor early on and you're going to have some of that. The Patriots aren't going to know what to expect. I also could see the Patriots coming out really conservative here, being like, let's not turn the ball over early. Let their defense, you know, create turnovers and get. Get a lead because there's a chance that it just is a disaster with Stidham. Right. So they might go pretty conservative, feel out what this is going to look like. The Patriots red zone defense is also horrendous. So if Denver is able to put some things together and get into the red zone, you. They might be able to finish off drives with touchdowns. So my opinion is the adjustment is just too much. But I could be dead wrong. If anyone tells you, like with certainty they know what situm's gonna look like, they're lying through their teeth. But I just think that this should probably be like three and a half, not five and a half. So I did play Denver. Historically, Peyton one of the best coaches against the spread as an underdog, like the guy especially when catching over a field goal about 66 against the spread. He has had success with backups in the past. He has had success against teams that like the blitz. And I'm gonna trust him to have a. Just put together everything he's got for this game plan to put Stidham in the best position to put up enough points on the board. The other thing is there's. There's more uncertainty because of the Patriots and their schedule. Like, we still don't know how good this team is because they didn't play. They had the easiest schedule in 25 years in the regular season and then the playoffs. You play the Chargers on offensive line and Herbert just looked like a disaster. And then you play the Texans who, you know, Stroud couldn't complete. I mean, he couldn't do anything. And then. But they didn't have their full. They had offensive line injuries. Their best receiver was out, their best tight ends lost in the first quarter. So like the data points of New England playing a full team and we don't. We won't even get one here, by the way. But like, we still don't know exactly. Like, for a team that's in the AFC or NFC championship, you usually have a pretty good idea of who they are and where to rate them. There's still. There's a lot of uncertainty with New England as well. But I'm gonna trust the home dog here. But I, I don't blame you for laying it. There's. There's so much uncertainty with this game and sit them could be a disaster. I wouldn't blame people for betting like alts like, you know, New England minus 14, minus 17. Because if it goes sideways and Denver has to play like from behind, that's when I do think that this. They will mix. They will miss Knicks dearly. They gotta stay in this early and keep it close.
- [68:58]
B
Okay, let's get into the main event. Seattle weather actually doesn't. I looked this morning doesn't look too terrible. Cold. And it always obviously could rain, but it's not. You're not talking single digits or anything. 30s or 40s, probably high 40s to me. There are two plays you either take in Seattle to cover or you just take the Rams money line. That's the way I would look at it. And when you look at Seattle, if you remove the end of that game, whatever in the middle of December, that Thursday night game, they kind of got dominated by the Rams. I mean, their quarterback has six interceptions. And in la, I mean he was that, that was as bad of a game as he's played the last two years. And obviously he played two horrendous games at the end of last season in Minnesota. I'd argue he was worse in that Rams game. Of the four picks, like three of them were like real atrocious, like hitting guys in stride like CJ Stroud level picks the other day. And then he flipped and he obviously had a great drive to win the game. But I, you know that Shahid, who has been huge for him. So it's not be like, well, they got a random, you know, punt return. Well, he just had a kickoff. Like the guy's electric player. I mean, it can happen. He's a. He's clearly an X factor against a team whose special teams are. I'm watching Signetti, I'm like, if I'm Sean McVeigh, I call his special teams coordinator. Like, hey, would you be interested in coming to the NFL? You want to come work for the Rams? We're pretty good and we'll pay you a lot of money. Like I, I would be all over that guy. I wouldn't even out think it. These offensive coaches like McVeigh and Shannon, they hate special teams. Just go find like that guy. They're blocking kicks and doing every game. To me, I, I'm gonna have faith in Sam Darnold. I. What do you think about this comp? Seattle reminds me a little of the 2019 49ers. Unreal defense, unreal front. Sherman wasn't all pro that year. Their secondary was really good. Obviously they had great quick young linebacker play. And Jimmy Garoppolo just kind of had to manage the game. And remember, in that NFC championship game he had eight attempts. Now, I don't think that's going to be quite the case, but Sam Darnold's had a game where he threw 12 completions for 120 yards and they won by almost 40 points. So it's like he just has to play in this Kubiak Shanahan offense like a Jimmy Garoppolo. But he, he is better than Jimmy talent wise. But like Jimmy, if you force him to pass too much, he can throw it to the other team. So to me, it all comes down to like, can. Can they turn Sam into game manager? They will win this game if they have to rely on him like Sean relies on on Stafford. It could get dicey and it could.
- [71:34]
A
Get dicey fast and very dicey if they have to rely on him. Because also you have the oblique issue which could flare up at any time and that flares up with the more times that you have to throw and it impacts your deep passing.
- [71:48]
B
So how about that first pass of the Niner game when it like kind of skipped? You're like, oh, this could be a. And then I. Shanahan said after the game, he's like, that tore it all kicks in. You get a little numb, you start rolling. And like you said, what, 18 attempts? Not like he threw it 49 times.
- [72:02]
A
Yeah, so. And he's playing a defense that doesn't get pressure. The Rams can get pressure and that's been kryptonite. Darnold has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league against pressure this year and that against the Rams, who can get pressure. Going back to last year with Darnold and then the two meetings this year, that leads to Darnold making mistakes. So that has to be the. But this will come down. But if the Rams aren't able, why.
- [72:28]
B
Why do you think Shula's own them so much? Is just the. The pressure on him is the looks changing? I mean, because clearly over three games, from a statistical standpoint, for a guy that's resurrected his career and been excellent against most other opponents has been horrendous.
- [72:41]
A
Yeah, I think a lot of it just boils down to the pressure. And keep in mind this, the left tackle situation for Seattle is very dicey. Their backup and starter didn't practice yesterday. We'll see what the practice reports say today. But they could be down to like a third string left tackle against Verse, which is not ideal. But this. So if this gets to three, I've been waiting for it to get three. I have to take the Rams. Now the skid. The spot is not ideal for the Rams. They could be like worn down is what. Maybe that's what we're seeing. But this goes back to that crazy lucky win that the Seahawks had that decided the one season this is the benefit that you get the red. The Seahawks had a buy and then a block went at home and then they stay at home, host the NFC championship. They have basically haven't exerted much energy at all in a month. Meanwhile, the Rams went to Carolina. We're in a dog fight. Chicago go to overtime and then fly to Seattle for their third straight road game after an overtime game.
- [73:49]
B
Atlanta, remember Monday Night Football, the second to last week, you know Seattle second to last week was San Francisco. So it wasn't that far of a flight.
- [73:58]
A
Haven't had a break. We're buying forever. So like are they starting to wear down? Is that what we're seeing? But if there's, if this is a three, if there's a three, I have to take the Rams. I think that there's. Part of this is there's a little overreaction and recency bias from what we've seen over the past month. If you go back just a week, 16. So we have 16, 16 weeks, almost a full season of body of work. After that Rams Seahawks game, you said everyone that watches said the Rams are the best team in the NFL and they're going to win the Super Bowl. And that has changed drastically in less than a month. And the Seahawks have just played the Niners with all their injuries and the Panthers, they've only played two teams. So. And I get the Rams have haven't looked as great since then. But the Rams went to Seattle and put up 581 yards and really only lost because of a fluke two point conversion. They also missed a field goal. Your point about special teams though is valid. Seattle is a major advantage. They have elite special teams. The Rams do not. The Rams missed a field goal in that game that would have won it. They gave up a punt return that flipped the game. Part of it is that the Rams like their roster. It was set. They were not supposed to be in this position. But they hit on their draft picks like nailed their draft picks. Right. They sacrificed their future for that super bowl that they got. And they were going to have some very bad years on the defensive side of the ball. But they hit on their draft picks. They were able to maintain their level on that side. But the depth of the roster isn't great. Which leaks into the special teams. And that's why I think their special teams have really struggled. But you're right, they could use like just a special teams coordinator wizard. But that's a huge advantage for Seattle here. But go just. I think in that game, I bet Seattle plus one at home against the Rams, they got dominated, and I got very lucky to win that bet. They closed minus one. But keep in mind, the Rams were without Dotson, who's, you know, arguably the best guard in football. He came back last week, looked dominant, and they were without Devonte Adams, and they still put up nearly 600 yards. One of the things they did, they ran right at Nicki Minore. Ran right at him. And I mean, he. Nicki Minor has been amazing. Like, he has changed. One of the reasons why that McDonald defense is unreal. They have no weaknesses and they, you know, he's able to basically play linebacker and D back and you can match heavy or light personnel. This will come.
- [76:26]
B
They're literally looking for a Kyle Hamilton type player, and there just is a guy in this draft that they can get in the second round. I mean, how Kyle Hamilton type players, the size guys, they don't even really exist most drafts, and then there just happens to be a guy. Kyle Hamilton was a high pick that you don't even need to draft that high that you can just get in the second round. I mean, it worked out fucking perfectly for him.
- [76:45]
A
Unbelievable. So. But this will come down to. So like in that game, Seattle. Seattle closes 1. The Rams were missing two of their better players on offense. Now the Rams are fully healthy on offense. The Seahawks might not be, you know, Donald Oblique. Their left tackle situations, Dicey lost Shark. Yeah. So at 3, I think it's way too much of an overreaction. I'd have to take the Rams. What I think this game will come down to is. And now maybe Stafford's hand is a thing and maybe they're fatigued. You could argue that for sure, but at a field goal, I'd have to take it. But I think this is just going to come down to absolute football porn between McVeigh and McDonald. So the first meeting, oddly enough, the first meeting, McDonald dominated McVeigh, but McVeigh won. In the second meeting, McVeigh dominated McDonald and McDonald won. And then you go back to the raid in. In Baltimore, McVeigh dominated McDonald, McDonald when they had the number one defense in Baltimore, but McDonald won in overtime. But I think, like, so McVeigh made some really good adjustments and it. It's really back to that.
- [77:58]
B
We're back to that circle. You know, Kyle still has success against the Rams, McVeigh against Seattle, Seattle against the Niners is fucking circle of life.
- [78:07]
A
In the NFC West. So there is in the first meeting the Rams used 11 personnel like 65% of the time. In the second meeting they use 13 personnel 65% of the time. And they had success running right at even worry. It was also on a short week. McDonald's said he tried to implement too many complex things and it was too much on a short week. But you know both teams are going to make adjustments. I what do the Rams do last week they abandoned heavy personnel. I don't know why. Because that that's how you want to attack the Bears, especially in bad weather. I but, but you know McVeigh is going to throw a curveball and you know McDonald's going to have curveballs. Which one is more effective, which one makes the better in game adjustments. That is going to be absolute porn. The difference could be, you know, and if McVeigh is able to move the ball and they're able to put up points, how do they also treat Nakua this time around because Adams is playing. I mean think about Nakua went off against it's unstoppable and Adams wasn't even playing. What is the adjustment there? Do they bracket them more? Does Adams look a little healthier this week? But there the biggest difference here is Stafford's okay under pressure and Darnold is not. So if this gets into a high scoring affair and Darnold needs to match Stafford and he has that oblique and there might be left tackle issues, I'm taking the Rams. But at the Seahawks defense is able to do its thing like in the first meeting at home in this situation then the Seahawks probably get it done. You throw in the special teams advantage. So this comes down to McVeigh and McDonald and it's you could look at however the other staff like we talk about these games and as batters try to break them down but when in the highest leverage games that's when you make the the most changes. Right. So they know that the staff's looking at the same things and that tenant you want to break tendencies in these games. So what does what do the Seahawks do differently and what do the Rams do differently in the third meeting and who does it more effectively and catches the other team apart? That's probably what's going to decide this. That's what makes football chess matches like this so awesome. So I can't Wait to watch it. But at three, I think it's just too much of a reaction to what's happened recently. Like just a month ago, we. Everyone was saying after a game in Seattle with a shorthanded offense, the Rams are the best team. They just put up 600 yards on this, on this defense. And I think we're overreacting maybe just a little bit to what Seattle. And Seattle's offense hasn't been great for, you know, since week 10. Teams have adjusted. Right. McDonald was number third in EPA per play over the first 10 weeks. Since then, 27th. And a lot of that, the run game's gotten better because a lot of that is. Teams are playing lighter boxes. Against the Seahawks early in the season, they were running, but not running it well. But teams were loading the box because they had. The Seahawks had all these tight ends and they were running it a ton. But that was just. They were just doing that to set up the play action and deep shots to jsn. Well, defenses have since said run it. We don't care. Run it if you want. We're going to take away the deep ball. We're going to bracket jsn. So the Seahawks have. The run game's gotten better, but those explosive passing plays have gone out the window. And I think the Rams will play it the same way. Right. They'll say, good, run it if you want. We just want to. You're not able to do it consistently enough all the way down the field without getting into a third down where then we can get unleash our pass rush and get the Darnold. I think that's got to be their goal. So this. But I think this all just comes down to the McVeigh vs. McDonald chess match, which is as good as it gets. I can't wait for that game.
- [81:44]
B
Well, one major difference in the Niners, clearly, with their wide receiver injuries. You know, Kittle being out in this last game when it's like third and six, they have no chance for guys to get open against that defense.
- [81:54]
A
Well, the third and six with your Niners, they're not a defense. They can get pressure against Darnold too. That's.
- [81:59]
B
Yeah. So. And it flips. So it's. But when you look at the Rams on offense and it's third and six, you could argue if devonte's healthy. They have the two best possession wide receivers in the league.
- [82:10]
A
Yep.
- [82:10]
B
So it's like, you know, I mean, Jefferson and Chase, these guys are more explosive, but those two guys on third and seven or third and five when it's a must pass on a slant, on an out, when it's just something to get past the sticks and make a fucking play. I mean, you could argue Devonte has been the best version of that guy for a decade and Puka is now the best at that. So. And that's a huge advantage. I thought that win going on the road, and I know Chicago was flawed, but their defense, when you start getting single digits, those games are really hard. They're not going to be 35 to 30. That's not the way it's played. That. That was. I mean, everything we've talked about Miami for 25 years, what the Rams have done. I mean, I don't know what the weather was like last week in LA, but it probably wasn't colder than 60 to handle that. And the physicality, like they've. That gets to the way they've built the team with the GM, the way McVeigh's, the mindset. The 49ers have done the same over the years. Be able to travel. It's a physicality mindset in the cold, and that shit translates in the playoffs. So I. If the Rams play well, they can win this game no problem. Like I say, no problem. Like it wouldn't shock anybody if you tell me the Rams win this game, right? 25 to 20 or something. So that's in Stafford. I mean, if he, if he's on, they're just tough.
- [83:23]
A
And I mean, I think the most. I mean, you mentioned Nakua and maybe the most impressive performance of the entire season is what Nakua did in Seattle against that defense with no Adams. I mean, that defense gives up nothing. They haven't given up a play over 20 yards in a month. That they give up nothing to anybody. And Nakua Without Adams had 12 catches for 225 yards. Like, that's ridiculous against this defense. This defense doesn't give up 225 total yards in a game. So how does. That's another one of these, these adjustments. What does. What did they do with Nakua? I mean, because he did that without Adams in the lineup and without Dotson. So. Yeah, just. I. I can't wait to watch that, that chess match. I do think now, again, it's one football game, anything can happen. But I do think this, the winner of this game is your super bowl winner.
- [84:19]
B
Well, think. Think about the. Let's say New England wins. New England then has to fly back to New England, which is a long flight, and then fly back to San Francisco. Well, Seattle and the Rams, they never leave the time zone. So if Seattle wins, they'll just fly down to San Francisco whatever in a week. Not a long flight LA, it's like 45 minutes. I mean it's, it's, it's a pretty convenient super bowl setup for the winner of this NFC Championship game. There's no disputing that. Right?
- [84:46]
A
Yep. I, now here's the question.
- [84:48]
B
If you, I don't know, do you. I don't know if you factor that in with the extra bye week, it makes it a little easier. But that, that cross country flight, anyone who's made it just doing it one time just, it's a lot.
- [84:59]
A
Yeah, no, there's, it's definitely worth mentioning if you were the Patriots because I mean if you, I think the. Let me, I'll pull up the hypothetical because we're saying given this, the situation right now. All right. So in the super bowl right now the look at lines are literally the same exact price. So the hypotheticals, The Rams are minus three and a half, minus 104 against the Patriots. The Seahawks are minus three and a half minus 104 against the Patriots. Literally identical prices. So from a if you just, if you, we assume that line is right then mathematically just odds probability, there's no difference in the teams. But who would you want to face right? Like historic. You go against the Seahawks, historically great defense but you get to face Sam Darnold or you know the Rams their defense a little more gettable but you have to face Stafford and that offense. And I do think that the Rams would benefit immensely from the two week break. Right. We just talked about the stretch that they've been on and how like fatigue might be getting catching up a bit and they've had all that travel. Right. They might really benefit from that two weeks. So as good as the Seattle, I don't think there's a huge difference. But as dominant as Seattle defense is, I think I would if I could pick from the Patriots or the Broncos. I'm picking Seattle. I think.
- [86:51]
B
Yeah, I think the, the shitty part if you're Sean Payton you're like your offensive line is at least equipped to handle the versus the Leonard Williams like you you could. The Patriots would be at a big disadvantage against especially the way Seattle's defensive lines humming, you know and I, you know Darnold is not going to play like C.J. stroud in a 60 degree Levi Stadium day. So I, I, I, I think that offensive line, you know the Rams have had moments where they're off Their defensive line has disappeared now. They. They showed up definitely last game. It felt like. I mean, they did a great job on Caleb, kind of breaking down, not letting him scramble around. They were excellent against the run. Yeah, I mean, I. I think that Christian Gonzalez.
- [87:35]
A
Hard for me to see the Broncos having a chance, though, like you. I mean, Stidham will have a start under his belt, but I think the way that they win this game is, you know, with the home crowd with their defense against the battle line. And this has to be Peyton. Kitchen sink. You got to throw everything out. And now, like, you're gonna. They're gonna have. There's only so much you can do with Stidham after that one game. So it's very difficult for me to see the Broncos beating either the Seahawks or the Rams. But, yeah, if I was the Patriots, I think I would choose the Seahawks. But it's very, very close. I mean, the price is literally identical. But I will say from. I do hope that the it is. We do get the Patriots versus the Rams or Seahawks just from a entertainment and us talking about it perspective.
- [88:18]
B
So you got potentially no power this weekend. Is that what it's looking like?
- [88:23]
A
It's close. We're on the right, on the, like, fringe of whether it's all snow or if it's ice. And no one really knows. So hopefully it's just snow and it's not like a half inch ice, which would then knock down power lines and trees, which would be an absolute nightmare.
- [88:41]
B
What would you do if there's no power on a Sunday during the games?
- [88:45]
A
I mean, I have 13 portable chargers that I always take out to bar. I would bring out a couple of bars, then I'd lose them in my house. I'd buy more. So I have so many. I found every single one in my house. I'm charging them all. So I would be able to watch it on my phone. And I have a gas fireplace. I'll just be sitting in front of my fireplace watching on my phone. So I'll be able to watch because the bars, I could go down to my wife's bar. I don't know if they would have power. Open that up.
- [89:18]
B
That's why God made whiskey. Keep you warm.
- [89:20]
A
That's true. So, yeah, I'll be able to watch, but it might not be the most ideal setup, but I will. I'll make sure that I have devices charged and ready to stream all day, but hopefully it doesn't come to that. We'll see.
- [89:37]
B
Well, Stucky, enjoy the weekend. Stay warm and we will talk soon.
- [89:42]
A
Yeah. Get some rest, brother. Cheers. The volume. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.