The Herd with Colin Cowherd: 3 & Out - AFC and NFC Championship Weekend Preview
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: John Middlekauff
Guests: Stuckey (betting analyst)
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Episode Overview
This episode delves into the high-stakes landscape of Championship Weekend in the NFL, focusing on which coaches, quarterbacks, and franchises have the most to gain or lose. John Middlekauff offers deep-dive analysis on the storylines, legacies, and career-defining implications for the main figures in the AFC and NFC Championship games. Later, Stuckey joins for a granular, betting-focused preview of each matchup, rich with X's and O's, historical context, and predictions.
1. Championship Stakes & Legacies ([00:48 - 25:37])
Thematic Focus
- This weekend represents career- and legacy-defining moments for coaches, quarterbacks, and GMs.
- “Who has the most to gain?” is the driving question.
Key Storylines
Sean Payton & the Denver Broncos
- Unprecedented challenge: Broncos are in the AFC title game with backup QB Jared Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a live-game pass this season.
- Both Sean Payton and Josh McDaniels have previously vouched for Stidham.
- Legacy impact:
“If Sean Payton can win an AFC championship game with a backup quarterback... this would have to be the second most important win of his career.” — John (10:33)
- Could vault Payton’s reputation to “rubber-stamp Hall of Famer” status.
Mike Vrabel & the Patriots
- Redemption narrative: After Tennessee, Vrabel is revitalizing New England.
- “Their team, that’s not going away. You would chalk the Patriots up to be really good moving forward.”
- Vrabel’s brash, old-school player-turned-coach aura:
“Mike Vrabel once told the Bustin’ [With the Boys] guys he’d cut off his dick to win a Super Bowl.” — John (16:37)
Young QBs in the Super Bowl Hunt
- Drake May (Patriots): On the verge of potentially making the Super Bowl in Year 2, which is rarefied air (compared to Dan Marino, Russell Wilson).
“You win one early... no one can put the pressure [on you].” (18:56)
- Jared Stidham (Broncos): From perpetual backup to possible “Foles-like” legend if victorious.
NFC Coaches and GMs
- Mike Macdonald (Seahawks): Defensive mastermind, understated demeanor.
“If he was an offensive coach, we would be speaking about him like McVay on steroids.” — John (28:05)
- John Schneider (Seahawks GM): On the cusp of Hall of Fame-level achievement—multiple Super Bowls with different QBs and coaches.
- Matt Stafford (Rams): Possible Hall of Fame clinch and retirement consideration if second ring secured.
- Sean McVay (Rams):
“If he just makes the Super Bowl, he’ll have made three by 40.” (25:40)
Chess Match and GM Mastery
- Macdonald vs. McVay is described as “football porn” for its schematic intrigue.
Emotional & Human Angles
- Middlekauff candidly discusses new fatherhood and the adjustments it requires, likening sleepless nights and constant adaptation to football coaching life.
“I just kind of embraced it… you have to be. And watching my wife get up at 4am to feed them and then not really go back to bed… you just kind of power through.” (35:43)
2. AFC Championship Game: Broncos vs. Patriots Preview ([38:53 - 68:57])
Betting Insights & Breaking Down the Matchup
Market and Number
- Largest home dog (Broncos +5.5) in a conference championship since the merger.
Jared Stidham’s Outlook
- Zero live passes this season; unprecedented playoff scenario.
- Stuckey:
“Players will start in the championship game or later without throwing a pass in a live game. We’ve never seen it before.” (64:05)
Patriots’ Defense
- Healthy and elite against the run.
- Concerns about May’s performance under pressure and against strong defenses.
Broncos’ Edge
- Home-field advantage in Denver’s January cold; noisy crowd.
- Sean Payton’s playcalling creativity and historical ATS success as a dog.
- Offensive line viewed as the best protection Stidham has ever had.
- Patriots may not know what to expect ("kitchen sink" game from Payton).
Uncertainties
- Both experts underscore how unique and unpredictable this matchup is with backup QBs.
3. NFC Championship Game: Seahawks vs. Rams Preview ([68:57 - 84:18])
Strategic, Roster, and Betting Take
Chess Match: McVay vs. Macdonald
- Incredible adjustments:
“It’s going to come down to absolute football porn between McVay and Macdonald.” — Stuckey (76:45)
Seahawks’ Defensive Identity
- Exceptional front and creative defensive looks.
- Sam Darnold (Seahawks) compared to “Jimmy Garoppolo with higher upside” (71:00).
- Darnold’s history of poor games against Rams’ pressure defense.
Rams’ X-Factors
- Matt Stafford’s performance as critical.
- Special teams: Seahawks have a huge advantage; Rams may need to pursue a new coordinator.
- If Darnold is forced to throw, Seahawks could capitalize on pressure and create turnovers.
Recent History & Matchups
- Previous meetings went down to the wire; Rams dominated stats in one, Seahawks won with special teams help in another.
- Seahawks have been less tested lately; Rams have survived a grinder schedule.
- Rams’ star WRs (Adams, Nakua) could be decisive on money downs.
Fatigue and Scheduling
- Rams' third straight road game after overtime, while Seahawks have been resting.
- If Rams win, two-week break before the Super Bowl could allow them to recharge.
Betting Lean
- Stuckey: “If this is a three [point spread], I have to take the Rams… part of this is an overreaction and recency bias…” (73:49)
4. Super Bowl Implications ([84:18 - 88:17])
Neutral Field & Rest Logistics
- Rams/Seahawks winner benefits from regional proximity to Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium (San Francisco).
- Patriots (if they win) would face tricky cross-country travel.
Hypotheticals & Lines
- Early projected Super Bowl lines: Both Rams and Seahawks are -3.5 vs. the Patriots.
- With a weaker Denver offense (if they beat New England), AFC is a major underdog.
Entertainment Factor
- Consensus: a Patriots vs. Rams/Seahawks Super Bowl is best for fans and media ("way less intriguing" if it’s Broncos vs. NFC).
5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “If Sean Payton can win a playoff game, an AFC championship game, with a backup quarterback... this would take his status as a coach to a completely different level.” — John (10:33)
- “Vrabel… probably would cut off a pinky toe [to win a Super Bowl], that’s for sure.” — John (16:37)
- “I think Sean McVay could join a list… there’s usually one Bezos, one Elon, one Tiger… there’s like one Sean McVay.” — John (29:49)
- “This is the first time in NFL history a player will start in the championship game or later without throwing a pass in a live game.” — Stuckey (64:05)
- “All the pressure now is on New England. You have to beat Stidham to get to the Super Bowl. Broncos can play loose.” — Stuckey (61:07)
- “It's going to come down to absolute football porn between McVay and Macdonald.” — Stuckey (76:45)
- “The winner of this game is your Super Bowl winner.” — Stuckey (84:18)
6. Additional Insights and Color
- Middlekauff’s personal anecdotes about fatherhood and sleepless nights inject humor and relatability, paralleling the unpredictable grind of an NFL season.
- Weather and field conditions could be significant, especially with a deep freeze heading for Denver.
7. Timestamps for Segments
- Main theme & preview setup: [00:48 – 10:33]
- Sean Payton discussion: [10:33 – 15:20]
- Mike Vrabel & Patriots: [15:20 – 20:00]
- NFC focus (Macdonald, Schneider, Rams): [20:00 – 29:00]
- McVay’s legacy: [25:37 – 29:40]
- Fatherhood tangent: [30:00 – 38:52]
- Stuckey joins, AFC breakdown: [38:53 – 68:57]
- NFC breakdown (Seahawks–Rams): [68:57 – 84:18]
- Super Bowl lookahead: [84:18 – 88:17]
- End-of-show banter/weather/personal notes: [88:17 – end]
Bottom Line:
This episode is a must-listen for fans who crave big-picture context, legacy talk, and strategic previewing ahead of one of the NFL’s most pivotal weekends. Middlekauff and Stuckey combine narrative, analytics, and plenty of humor to prep listeners for all the drama to come on Championship Sunday.