The Herd with Colin Cowherd Presents: "3 & Out – Best Bets for the CFP and MASSIVE NFL Weekend"

Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: John Middlekauff, Stuckey
Theme:
A deep-dive, lively preview of the final NFL regular season weekend (Week 18) and the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinals, blending sharp betting insights, big-picture takeaways, and a candid look at storylines, injuries, and playoff implications.

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode centers around the most pivotal football weekend of the year, both NFL Week 18 with playoff fate on the line and the start of the College Football Playoff. Middlekauff and Stuckey break down high-stakes games, analyze team trajectories and matchups, and give their strongest perspectives for betting and outcomes—peppered with irreverence, storytelling, and an insider’s view on coaching and roster decisions.

NFL Week 18 Breakdown

The State of the Season & What’s at Stake

• The mood is a bittersweet reflection on the end-of-year slate, with only a handful of meaningful games left before playoffs and a long football offseason ahead.
• “You only got four more real college games that matter… and a large percentage of these Week 18 games mean nothing. So we don’t have that much meaningful football left in our life, Stuckey.” — John Middlekauff [04:10]

Key Matchups & Analysis

1. 49ers vs. Seahawks: For The NFC #1 Seed

• Playoff Stakes: If 49ers win, they clinch the #1 seed. If not, they likely drop as low as the #6 seed.
• Rams' Strategy: Sean McVay’s decision on whether to rest starters hinges on outcomes elsewhere.
  • “If the 49ers win on Saturday, they get the 1 seed and the Rams are locked into the 6. But if Seattle wins, then the Rams can jump them to get the five, which is super important this year.” — Stuckey [07:40]
• Game Analysis:
  • 49ers’ offense is rolling, Purdy on fire, but the defense is a liability.
  • DK Metcalf and Bobby Wagner are still around for Seattle, but it’s a very different team now.
  • Lean toward the 49ers as a home dog or a teaser leg, especially if Kittle plays [12:39].
  • Notable Quote: “Clear quarterback advantage, I think for Purdy right now. And that’s… the slight difference in the game. So I would take the Niners as a home dog.” — Stuckey [12:38]
• Seattle Problem Areas: Offense has been solved since Week 10 (21st in EPA per play); Darnold turnover-prone; defense excellent.
  • “Darnold is still a statue… you get into these obvious passing down situations because they’re not an efficient rushing attack, and that’s when Darnold is making some mistakes.” — John Middlekauff [14:01]
• Tactical Watch: Anticipate the 49ers blitzing or playing safe coverages—expecting a tight, low-scoring affair.

2. Steelers vs. Ravens: Classic Rivalry, But With A Twist

• Historical Context & Spread Trend:
  • “When Tomlin and Harbaugh face off in the regular season, the team getting three or more points is 21-2-1 against the spread. It’s been a dog-dominated series.” — John Middlekauff [25:14]
• Line and Injuries:
  • Steelers are depleted (Metcalf, Darnell Washington out). TJ Watt’s status uncertain.
  • Ravens have QB uncertainty: Will Lamar play? Is he healthy? [28:48]
• Game Expectation:
  • Low scoring; both offenses have little explosiveness; Ravens can run, Steelers will try to—but lack weapons.
  • Best Bet: Under.
• Lamar Jackson Drama:
  • “If the Ravens don’t make the playoffs this year and they lose Sunday night, there’s definitely going to be some big change.” — John Middlekauff [29:00]
• AFC Parity Note: “This isn’t the peak Buffalo and Kansas City teams of the past few years… If Lamar can somehow get healthy and the Ravens get in, they could make the Super Bowl.” — John Middlekauff [30:00]

3. Bucs vs. Panthers & NFC South Chaos

• Division is Wide Open: Saints, Falcons, and Bucs are all alive for the crown, but none are threatening.
  • “This the NFL should step in and say the Saints Falcons is for the division. I agree they should just change the rules.” — John Middlekauff [38:21]
• Falcons Special Teams: Historically bad, squandering an otherwise strong season.
• Betting Angle: Stuckey likes the Bucs at -2.5 for the first time all year.
  • “This is my first bet on the Bucs all year… everyone, no one wants to bet them now. They haven’t covered in two months.” — Stuckey [42:02]
• Falcons Favorite? Careful: Don’t love Atlanta as chalk due to dumb mistakes on special teams, but respect their defense and offense when healthy.

4. Chiefs vs. Raiders: The Tank Game

• Draft Implications Galore: Chiefs incentivized to lose and move from the 9th to possibly the 8th pick.
  • “Why are we just going to win this game and hand them… the opportunity to resurrect their franchise? …I think the Chiefs are very incentivized to lose this game for multiple reasons.” — John Middlekauff [43:53]
• Raiders’ No. 1 Pick Path: There’s a chance Raiders could try and win and still secure No. 1, depending on earlier games.
• Line Observation: “Ola Duken and potentially a shell roster is laying six on the road in Vegas. That’s crazy.” — Stuckey [46:43]
• Leaning Raiders + Points, If Anything.

5. Other NFL Bets

• Bengals vs. Browns:
  • Stuckey loves the Bengals, citing improved defensive play and the Browns’ tendency to underperform on the road.
  • “I think the Bengals roll the Browns. Their offense right now is clicking, and the Browns defense is just not that unit on the road.” — Stuckey [49:01]

Playoff Picture & NFC/AFC Landscapes

• NFC is wide open; no dominant team.
  • “The Niners offense rolling, but can you trust the defense? Seattle elite defense, but can you trust Darnold?” — Stuckey [18:09]
• Rams, if healthy, would be the pick for most—but current injuries and potential seeding make the path very tough.
• Importance of seeding: Getting the #1 seed gives 49ers an incredible advantage; the difference between being #1 or going to Philly as the #6 seed is “astronomical.” [20:15]

College Football Playoff & Bowl Previews

Miami vs. Ohio State

• Miami is live at +9.5: Strong arguments for Miami’s defensive and offensive lines; game projected to be low-scoring given both teams’ grinding pace.
  • “Getting over a touchdown is even more valuable… the Miami defensive line can cause the Ohio State offensive line major problems.” — John Middlekauff [58:56]
• Concerns: Can Miami’s offense generate enough? Beck is turnover-prone vs. an elite OSU defense.

Texas Tech vs. Oregon

• Texas Tech’s D-line National Title Good:
  • “Their defensive line will get after any quarterback, any offensive line. …Front seven for Tech is national title best in the nation good.” — John Middlekauff [64:16]
• Leans: First-half under, full-game under; both offenses tend to be methodical and have struggled against elite defenses.

Indiana vs. Alabama

• Indiana favored by 7: Stuckey notes it is surreal that Indiana’s a favorite vs. Bama on a neutral field in a college football playoff.
  • “It’s just crazy. Favorite on a neutral field in the college playoff against Alabama.” — John Middlekauff [68:30]
• Bama’s issues: Can’t run the ball; bad special teams; rely on Simpson’s arm/receiver talent.
• Lean: Indiana to cover, but would not blame someone for Bama +7.
  • “It’s a super unsustainable formula to try to win these games with just like Simpson having the drop back in known passing situations against the defense that can get pressure.” — John Middlekauff [67:20]

Ole Miss vs. Georgia

• Rematch: Georgia’s adjustments key; Ole Miss could start fast, but Kirby Smart is “the best in-game adjuster in the sport.”
  • “I think Georgia will be able to run the ball here… if I can get a cheap number on Georgia live, if Ole Miss scores first… I think this game could play out similar to the first meeting.” — John Middlekauff [70:08]
• Watch for In-Game Betting Opportunities.

CFP Parity

• No truly dominant team; next year looks wide open for both Oregon and Ohio State.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the fading season:
  “It’ll be 240 more days until our next college football game on a Saturday.” — Stuckey [05:19]

• The Ravens-Steelers line:
  “The team getting three or more points is 21-2-1 against the spread. It’s insane.” — John Middlekauff [25:14]

• On NFC manifest mediocrity:
  “Every team in the NFC has a war… it’s going to be wide open.” — Stuckey [18:09]

• On tanking incentives:
  “I think the Chiefs are very incentivized to lose this game for multiple reasons.” — John Middlekauff [43:53]

• Surreality of Indiana as a favorite:
  “It’s just crazy. Favorite on a neutral field in the college playoff against Alabama.” — John Middlekauff [68:30]

• Live betting advice:
  “As always with Georgia, I’ll be looking to bet them live. They go down so much in games, they’re not good on the script offensively.” — John Middlekauff [70:08]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:18] — Opening thoughts on the end of football season and what’s left to play for.
• [07:40] — NFC playoff seed breakdown (49ers, Rams, Seahawks).
• [12:00] — 49ers vs. Seahawks game preview and betting angle.
• [25:14] — Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry history and spread trend.
• [29:00] — Ravens’ future and Lamar Jackson drama.
• [38:21] — NFC South playoff scenarios and division chaos.
• [43:53] — Chiefs-Raiders tank game & draft pick strategies.
• [49:01] — Bengals-Browns analysis and other strong bets.
• [57:40] — College Football Playoff (Miami-Ohio State preview).
• [61:35] — Texas Tech-Oregon and under betting angle.
• [68:22] — Alabama-Indiana preview; pros/cons and big picture.
• [69:40] — Ole Miss-Georgia live betting strategy.

Conclusion & Tone

The episode is informed, conversational, and fast-paced—full of nuanced handicapping, irreverent asides, and a touch of melancholy about another jam-packed football season slipping away. John and Stuckey blend stats, storytelling, and gut feel, giving listeners honest insight on what’s at stake, who to trust (and fade), and how randomness and injury can upend even the best-laid plans come playoff time. Highly recommended for both bettors and general fans zeroing in on the razor-thin margins and wild unpredictability of the year’s biggest football weekend.