The Herd with Colin Cowherd — 3 & Out: Chiefs Trade for Justin Fields, RB Draft Strategy & NFL Mailbag (March 17, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this rich, football-focused episode, John Middlekauff discusses several of the NFL offseason’s biggest stories, centering on the Kansas City Chiefs’ trade for Justin Fields, evolving draft strategies for running backs, and burning league-wide questions via a lively mailbag segment. Topics range from in-depth breakdowns of quarterback value, team draft plans, shifting market trends, to lively commentary on coaching legacies.

Chiefs Acquire Justin Fields: Risk, Rewards & Market Dynamics

Main Segment: [03:30–26:00]

• Details of the Chiefs-Justin Fields Trade

  • The Chiefs swapped a 2027 sixth-round pick for Justin Fields, aiming for QB depth and upside behind an injured Patrick Mahomes.
  • Middlekauff frames this as a classic “organizational philosophy” move, reminiscent of Belichick and the Packers—always be in the QB-acquisition business, especially with distressed assets who have traits and high character.
  • Quote:

    “Every year, you should be in the business of acquiring these guys… and they got [Fields] for nothing.” (05:37)

• The Value of Bargain QB Shopping

  • Success in free agency is about timing—fortunes “made in downturns and collected when times are good.”
  • Identifies the profit in NFL roster construction lies far more in what you pay for a player than what you get back later:

    “When you sell something, the profit you make was not on the price you sold it for, but what you bought it for.” (04:44)

  • This model played out for teams with QBs like Sam Darnold, who went from being written off to winning a Super Bowl elsewhere.

• Why Fields Makes Sense for the Chiefs

  • Fields has never played for a truly offensive-minded coach—never had a schematic edge.
  • Now, with Andy Reid, he’ll get all the offseason reps while Mahomes heals. “If you’re Justin Fields, you should thank your lucky stars that a guy like this is believing in you…” (11:45)
  • “It’s pure value. We’re getting this guy for free. Maybe we rehab his value, maybe he never plays for us… There’s just no downside.” (18:36)
  • The Chiefs’ experience last year with Gardner Minshew (limited traits, exposed when forced to play) underscores the benefit of toolsy depth.

• Comparisons to Recent QB Market Moves

  • Many recent QB acquisitions (Tua to Atlanta, Kyler Murray to Minnesota, etc.) only made sense because they came so cheap in trade.
  • “Would the Falcons have signed [Tua] if he cost $15 million? Of course not. They got the guy for free.” (16:45)
  • “A huge part of acquiring these quarterbacks…is how much you pay to get them.” (20:02)

Notable Moment:

Middlekauff’s story about watching Shawshank Redemption—likening Fields’ move from career adversity to hope with Andy Reid as a “Shawshank tunnel moment.” (12:22)

The NFL’s Shifting Attitude Toward Running Backs

Main Segment: [26:10–32:40]

• Evolving RB Value Proposition

  • Middlekauff revisits his old take of never drafting RBs high. He now acknowledges that, due to scarcity and team context, elite runners can justify top picks.
  • “The resurgence of running backs…they all got on a Zoom call a few years ago…now, their argument has a little more substance.” (27:10)
  • Highlights Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and especially Christian McCaffrey as players who’ve proven to be outliers, even justifying their draft slot.

• Jeremiah Love & Titans Draft Strategy

  • Titans rumored as favorites to draft Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Love at #4, whom Middlekauff calls “the best player in this draft. He’s the total package.” (30:48)
  • Parallels drawn to Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson—elite pass-catching, home-run potential.
  • “They have a defensive head coach, Brian Daboll…who’s been around Saquon. I think that would be the right move.” (31:38)
  • Importance of fit: run-heavy Titans history (Eddie George, Derrick Henry) matches philosophy and can help settle a young QB like Cam Ward.
  • “If you’re Jeremiah Love, you can become Cam Ward’s best friend immediately.” (32:15)

Mailbag: NFL Business, Draft Decisions, and Player Value

Key Mailbag Segments: [47:04–65:50]

Income Taxes and Free Agency

• [47:04] How Do State Income Taxes Impact NFL Roster Building?
  • Listener asks if the NFL would consider only counting players’ take-home pay against the cap.
  • Middlekauff explains that although new state taxes (like Washington’s proposed 10%) may create headaches, “players just look at the biggest gross numbers…Mike Evans left Florida to join the 49ers.” (49:20)
  • Agents’ take: “They talk a big game. But they get their commission off gross, not net.” (51:04)
  • Real impact is mixed—good teams and big offers still win out over tax concerns.

Chiefs’ Draft Strategy at #9

• [52:40] Should the Chiefs Prioritize RT or LB in the Draft?
  • Emphasizes need for best player available, but if a plug-and-play right tackle is on the board, “you gotta do it.” (53:59)
  • “No one's ever complained about having enough good offensive linemen.” (54:29)
  • If top linemen are gone, consider best defender available. Chiefs don’t plan to draft this high again soon.

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings & “Winner” Narratives

• [55:30] Is the Book Already Closed on J.J. McCarthy?
  • Responds to criticism that he and Cowherd are too hard on McCarthy.

    “J.J. basically got to drive a Ferrari and you could argue he didn’t even have to drive; he had a driver.” (59:04)

  • Points out McCarthy’s “winner” status—national title, meniscus recovery, married, newborn—but says Vikings are moving on, not because he’s a ‘winner,’ but because they don’t have time to wait on non-impact QBs.
  • “In modern-day football, if you don’t show it immediately and you’re a high pick, you’re in major trouble.” (29:12)
  • Calls McCarthy more a product of his environment (elite college staff and team) than a proven NFL-ready prospect.
  • “His career in Minnesota…is in major jeopardy when Kyler Murray is eventually named the starter—that’s the beginning of the end.” (58:35)

The Real Value of Winning a Championship

• [61:00] Does Winning a Ring Make You Infinitely More Marketable?
  • Middlekauff disagrees that titles alone drive player marketability—personality and TV skills are bigger long-term drivers (see Dan Marino, Tony Romo).
  • “If you win a Super Bowl in a town, you’re taken care of—whether you have a huge personality or not.” (62:05)
  • But all-time greatness or charisma creates national/international opportunities regardless.
  • “You matter there for a long time…Once you become a champion, it changes the way you’re viewed.” (62:50)

NFC North Outlook: Focus on Bears

• [67:22] Can the Bears Overcome Roster Losses?
  • Listener skeptical about roster turnover, especially secondary losses and pass rush.
  • Middlekauff defends optimism: “I’m betting on Ben Johnson improving Caleb Williams and keeping the momentum as a great head coach.” (69:35)
  • Sees natural ebb and flow in roster changes; quality coaching and incremental QB improvement as the real difference makers.

Quick Hits and Notable Commentary

On the Accelerating Coaching/Quarterback Timelines

• [26:53]
  • “In the 2000s if you don’t show it immediately and you’re a high pick, you’re in major trouble…This is not 1987 where Bill Walsh went back and forth with Steve Young and Joe Montana. Those days are done.” (27:30)
  • Links shorter coaching tenures and bigger money to impatience at the QB position.

Wide Receiver & Free Agency Market Observations

• A.J. Brown & Christian Kirk
  • “If you don’t have a big market for him, Howie (Roseman) does not want to just give the guy away.” (35:42)
  • Wideouts like Christian Kirk or Juwan Jennings have unrealistic market demands; teams are bargain shopping—buy low, hope for outlier production.

Old Guard vs. New Wave Coaching (Rick Pitino Admiration)

• [40:41]
  • Praises Rick Pitino’s adaptability and late-career dominance at St. John’s:

    “To be 73 years old and have a team that just was down and out and to kick ass and take names…remarkable accomplishment.” (42:10)

Notable Quotes

• “When you make a move for a quarterback for nothing, your risk is almost zero.” (21:15)
• “If your quarterback is injured, and all you have is a garden-variety backup, you’re guaranteed to lose—so I get all these moves.” (19:44)
• “No one is ever going to complain about having too many good offensive linemen.” (54:29)
• “If you draft a guy eight at defensive line… you can still rotate him in. But at quarterback, you’re either in the game or you’re not.” (29:12)
• “You matter there for a long time; being a champion changes the way you’re viewed. But charisma and TV presence also matter a lot.” (62:50)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Topic | Timestamps | |-------|------------| | Chiefs Strategy with Justin Fields | 03:30–12:00 | | Value Shopping for QBs | 13:00–22:00 | | NFL QB Market (Tua, Kyler, Darnold) | 14:30–21:00 | | Running Back Draft Value | 26:10–32:40 | | Jeremiah Love Titans Draft | 30:30–32:45 | | J.J. McCarthy & Vikings Outlook | 55:30–61:00 | | Marketability of Champions | 61:00–62:50 | | Bears, NFC North Outlook | 67:22–71:50 |

Tone and Style

• Direct and conversational, matching Middlekauff’s candid, no-nonsense approach.
• Frequent use of financial/market analogies (buy low, profit on value, “bargain shop”).
• Pragmatic football analysis—emphasizes coaching, organizational philosophy, and economics as much as X’s and O’s.
• Lively use of analogies and cultural references (Shawshank, Rick Pitino, baseball WBC).

Summary Assessment

This episode is a must-listen for football fans wanting to understand the economic and philosophical underpinnings behind offseason moves—especially how smart teams like the Chiefs generate value in the backup QB market. Middlekauff’s evolving stance on running back draft value, candid takes on J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, and sharp mailbag responses provide a big-picture lens on the ever-changing NFL. The frequent, memorable quotes and examples make the analysis sharp, accessible, and memorable—even for listeners who haven’t heard the show.