John Middlekoff (52:32)
Banging out mailbags at John Middlekopf Instagram that this is a mailbag. If you hear people banging in the background, it's it's the roofers. It's why my fugazi. A couple weeks ago I said, you better be very careful when you buy something. You know, it's nothing like being a renter. You got an issue, you just place a call. Well, when I bought this house, it needed a new roof. Put it off for a couple years and you have historic rainfalls. You realize, yeah, I don't think I can put this off anymore. So I had to do it sooner or later. Definitely before we have a kid. So that that will be the noise. If you hear anything in the background again, mailbag at John Middlekopf at John Middelkoff is the Instagram fire in those dms. Start with Jack. I'm drinking the Kool Aid after how the Bears looked Against that, against the defense that has shut down both the Lions and the packers in the past month, I'm starting to believe the Bears can make a run no matter how many times it burnt me in the past. I think this upcoming game at Green Bay is the hardest game left on the schedule for the Bears with the game in San Francisco being the second hardest. And if they win, I can see them winning the rest of their games. My question, do you think there is a world where we can actually get the number one seed? And if they do, does the style of football they play, Strong run game, good third down pass game and a takeaway defense translate to the playoffs? How far do you think they can go if the playoffs run through Soldier Field? Well, I think the division will be like you said in the next month because this game is not must win. But if you lose this game, I do think you would have to win the next two. Obviously the Browns take care of the packers at home. And then if you go to the Niners and win, there's a chance that Lions game, Detroit's just done like they're completely out of the playoffs and that game is meaningless to them. So listen, there's going to be a lot of emphasis on this game. It's the packers, this historic rivalry which has really been one sided. But to me the game is much more about the home game against the Packers. Like if you go to Green Bay, even if you lose by 10, it's like, yeah, he went to Green Bay and lost, but can you beat him at home? And I think he can. You know, the 49er game, the 49ers defense is a shell unit because of all the injuries. Bosa, Fred Warner, Mikel Williams, I mean they're playing Cleveland Farrell, who was a practice squad level player earlier this season. Again, he's, he's done an admirable job. But the way you guys play that, that is a very winnable game. Again, they're kind of like the spider man meme. The Niners and the Bears in terms of the way they want to play. Very fascinated. These two games against the packers, you know how you guys look against their defense, you know, their strength is that pass rush, you know, is Ben Johnson is going to run it 50 times, you know, a game which I would imagine he's going to try. But your game translates to the playoffs. Anytime you, anytime you have an elite run game and you're playing playoff games, whether it's in Chicago, even if you don't win the division and the packers do you could go to Green Bay and win. Given the way you play, you could go to Seattle and win San Francisco, probably be the seven or six seed, so you wouldn't have to do that. But go to the Rams and win. Like your stuff's going to translate. So you know, your first round game, if you're the 5 seed would probably be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And if you're the one seed, would obviously you get a buy, which is pretty crazy. It's. It's honestly nuts we're even having this conversation. But I also think it's. It's kind of unneeded. We'll know a lot by the time that, that game, I guess tbd, they, they have a flex schedule ability for it. So I'm fascinated. If you win two of the next three games and you are. What's your record right now? 9 and 3. So if you are 11 and 4 going into that 49er game, assuming the 49ers would be they have a buy this week, then they play the Titans. So let's give them a win there. That would be 10 and 4 at Indy. I don't want to get too confident, but I would say Indy's in a little bit of trouble because just injury sauce. Gardner now is week to week. Obviously their quarterback is banged up. They just haven't been playing as well. So if Both teams are 11 and 4 in that game, that would be pretty nuts. So it's, it's a great time to be a Bears fan. You should be very excited. I'm happy to be wrong. Yeah. I mean, your coach is just fantastic. I'm curious as to who you think will win the super bowl this year. To my eyes, there are about 10 very good teams in the NFL. But the gap between them and, and the five, six good ones, there are 10 very good teams. Okay. And then the gap between the next five isn't that big. Like if I told you the 49ers beat the Seahawks in their last game, you wouldn't be shocked that if the Bengals won out and someone won their division, they are only two games behind. With some divisional games upcoming, no one would be shocked either. It seems that any team could beat any team on a given weekend. I totally agree. To my mind, I would just trust the people who have been to the dance before. For example, I trust Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers to at least be consistent in the playoffs. I don't know what the version of the Eagles or the Lions I would be getting in a game in the afc. If Buffalo is in, do I trust Bo Nix and the Broncos or the Jags and Trevor Lawrence or Josh Allen? Sean McDermott, while I agree, I do think health plays a pretty big role. You know, once everyone is somewhat even right. If we assume. If you look at the playoffs right now in the standings in the nfc, we know it's the Bears, the Packers, Seattle, the Rams, the Niners, Tampa and Philly. All those teams could beat each other. Now. I do think the 49ers are an example of like, their defense, it's going to be difficult. The margin for error on their offense would be slim to none. Like they couldn't overcome interception and a fumble because their defense is going to struggle to stop people right now. If you're playing the Eagles, what if their offense is terrible? Right. If you're playing the Rams and Stafford as one of his games, though he feels like he plays pretty well against the 49ers. I just think you have to look at it very matchup based and health wise. Like what the Bills just did against the Steelers on, on Sunday afternoon. Are they winning playoff games that are two starting tackles? I have a hard time thinking that, but I also watched Dion Dawkins of starting left tackle play against the Houston Texans and he could barely move. So it's like, are you better off with a guy who's fully healthy, even if he's clearly a backup, over a guy who's your starter? That's 60%. Yeah. I mean, these are the arguments. I also think momentum matters, like how you've been playing. You know, the 49ers have been winning a lot of games, right? The Bears have been really, really hot. I mean, the Bears have won five straight games. The packers now have won three straight games. They have momentum, like how you're playing going into the playoffs. The Rams last year had a lot of momentum going into the playoffs. The Broncos, they've just, they've won nine straight games. Same with the New England Patriots. Like you went nine straight games, you're playing at a really, really high level. I'm recording this before the Monday night game. The Colts, like, if they limp in as the six or seven seed, like, I don't have that much faith in them. So to me it matters how you're playing, how healthy you are. And then I totally agree, like having Kyle Shanahan, having Sean McVay, having Vrabel and Sean Payton, like there's a big advantage. Like, you know, Ben Johnson's coach a lot of playoff games. I know he hasn't been the head coach, but he's been involved in a lot of them as a coordinator. Kevin Patula, he's never called plays before in his life before this year. So what's he going to be like in a place playoff game? You know, Seattle's kind of interesting. Mike's never been a head coach for a playoff team. Kubiak never called plays for a playoff team. Like those are things to watch. You know, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVeigh, Ben Johnson, whether as an assistant or a head coach, like they've been involved in a lot. I actually think the coaching in the NFC, you know, even Mike McDonald was the DC for the Ravens, obviously the packers, the Niners, you know, Sirianni and Fangio, Sean McVeigh, Ben Johnson, like these, these guys, they've coached a lot of games. Meanwhile you look at the afc, you got Sean Payton, who you know, super bowl winning coach, coached a lot of playoff games. You got variable and Josh McDaniels that they've been around the block. Liam Cohen would, you know, that would be a little bit of a. If they are either win the division or a wild card, you know, the Ravens would be a team that would make you a little nervous in a playoff environment. The Chargers just have so many injuries. The Colts, those guys have never coached like I guess you know, as assistant coaches they have. But Shane Steichen, since he's been there, they haven't been in the playoffs. When's the last time Chris Ballard went to the playoffs? So I'm with you on the Bills, they have a pretty big advantage. I think the Bills would be the sleeper in the afc. I've noticed. Continue, John. I've noticed continued references to Kiffin, sobriety and weight loss as evidence to his changed personality. In 12 step circles, we often consider drinking as a symptom of a person's overall overall alcoholism, self centeredness or general narcissism. Stop drinking is the starting point at which a person can begin to affect a meaningful personality shift, often through their improvement, improve treatment of others and amend for the past transgressions. Clearly Lane has not progressed to that in a level that he probably never will. To me, this reinvented image is entirely superficial. And he's just the same guy. He's been with a slightly different haircut. I do think it's pretty evident by his body that he stopped drinking. Definitely at the level in which he was. Is the man completely sober? I mean truly, only he knows that, but it's, it's clear his Lifestyle changed. But I'm with you. Just because you change a lifestyle doesn't mean it changes your mentality. I'm going to talk about this on the main podcast. I'm recording this during the day. I'll do it in after we talk about the Monday Night Football game. There is a level of selfish selfishness I think you have to have in most industries to be successful. So clearly I think we'd all agree, even in a tough situation to handle. And typically when a coach leaves a program, especially a stepping stone job, which historically Ole Miss has kind of always been for lsu, if one program is doing really well and the other program is down there is this. You're leaving us for them, even though we're better than them right now, though they've been better than us historically, there's like this little brother syndrome, so that the fans get involved in. There's always. It feels like a little shadiness with the way it's handled and people just offended the wrong word. But just, you know, emotions run really, really high. But historically, like Nick Saban's left multiple jobs. He left Michigan State for lsu, Miami for. From lsu, and then he left Miami to go coach Alabama, and he almost left Alabama to coach for the University of Texas. So I think a lot of times, like didn't Urban Meyer, Bowling Green to Utah, Utah to Florida, kind of quit on Florida and then went to Ohio State. I just think these. The profession is naturally more nomadic than what most of us do now. We love. And I know speaking for myself, like, I love football. I don't have that much in common with just like every couple of years picking up and leaving, though relative to most people I've known. I've lived all over the country, right? I've lived in California, I've lived now in Arizona. I lived in Kansas City for a little bit. I lived in Philadelphia. I've been nomadic in my pursuit of some quote unquote, professional dream. Now, I also think when you're a public figure like him, everything gets dissected. I'm totally with you, though. The E60 video that he did with ESPN, which I enjoyed, like, there was a, you know, there was a reason that was produced, right? It was basically like the bat signal to the other programs. I'm a changed man. What you know about me, because people talk is no longer the case. And the Lord, the no more booze. My family, like, these things are important to me now where they used to not be. And he wanted everyone to know. Now you can say that's Self serving. Like, that's not what. The reason why someone should get sober or gravitate toward God is to tell everyone in your profession that you've done that. But that was the only way he was going to get hired. Now I think the question mark is moving forward is, is it going to be quiet? And when I say quiet, obviously from a recruiting standpoint, from a hype standpoint, he's going to do things. But like, does he find himself in controversy in lsu? And I'm not talking like a recruiting controversy, I'm talking legitimate, like, whoa, that's not a great look. Because we've seen that with people over the years in the sec, from Petrino banging the strength coach's wife to Hugh Freeze and all the hookers and the strippers. Like, if you are not winning and you are no longer. Last year, Lane went nine and three. Five years in with the expectation of a roster that could win the national championship and they went nine and three. I was like, oh, no big deal. Cool, we'll get you more money and we'll get another team the next year. And this year, clearly they didn't think they were going to be this good, but like they were very supportive. Nine and three, I'd even say a couple of years, eight and four would not be the end of the world there. As long as you have the occasional 10 or 11 win season that he just had and everyone's, you know, jumping for joy, that that's not how it's going to be tolerated at lsu. It's just not. Look at Kalin at Alabama. Rocky season, year one, which players leave lesson left and right. I mean, a starting quarterback and his starting star safety immediately go to Ohio State. So Nick Saban retires the. The transfer portal and everything. I'm pretty sure the timing, I'm not as dialed in as some of you that follow it closer than I do. But it was after the national championship, so it was late in the cycle and he went 9 and 4, which obviously for Alabama standards might as well be a two win season. Okay, we'll give you somewhat of a pass. You get your boy Ryan Grubb back from Seattle. Anything less, less than the playoff berth this year is a disaster. And we might think about firing you. It's like, well, John, they don't have the money. Well, we'll fucking find it. And that game against Auburn, you felt like he was coaching for his job. That's year two. You'd be like, well, he's following Saban. Well, yeah, I'm at LSU, where the expectation, I'm giving you $100 million. Like the reason Brian Kelly was shoved out was obviously because he just wasn't winning in his program. Clearly wasn't close to, you know, Bama or Georgia. But like Ole Miss was in a different world. He was losing the teams. Like he simply was not as good as teams that he's expected to be better than. And he didn't make the playoffs and he didn't make it till the end of year four. Now obviously being an asshole and that type stuff, what made it an easy decision, I just think you better win. And you know, the sobriety, the, the hot yoga, the living, I guess with your ex wife like that, that is, you know, it was important to let everyone know that, but now no one cares. We're not teaching life lessons here. We're trying to win daddies, you know, and can you get us closer to that? If you can, no one will care about any of your indiscretions. If you pick back up the bottle. If you started running around your wife, no one would care. Not a soul. But if you have an eight and four year, it'll be a problem, full stop. Now you could win a national championship and then have an eight and four year and people will let up on you a little bit. But the expectations, the one thing I will say about Ryan Day, who you like middle cough, I owe him an apology. He's kicking ass and taking names. His program is elite right now. And hiring of Patricia, that was a big time. That was a big time hire. And clearly the not beating Michigan thing was a big deal. He knew it. He had to get it done and they just kicked their ass. But like, you start rattling off national championships, like if they win it this year again, you start going to Final Fours. Like his, the standard's really, really high there and he's just answering the belt year in, year out. It's like, bunch of dudes in the NFL, we're top five every year. We're competing to win the Natty. We have one of the best teams clearly in the country every single year. But that's the expectation. Like anything less than that, he would get fired. He was so good outside of Michigan for a couple of years that couldn't really stick to him. But if last year he would have lost in the first round, it would have been a much bigger problem because the expectations are just outrageous. And I, I would say you could make the argument that in 2026, the highest expectations in the country are number one, Ohio State, because they now are consistently the highest expectations. I, I even think Georgia's in a weird way have lowered because of the transfer portal. It's like, yeah, probably never going to get as good as like 22 and 23 or 21, whatever they won. Back to backs. As long as we're in the mix. Final fours and if Kirby can win another one, like their Last championship was 1980. Like I saw Mark Rick for 15 years, you know, be a top 20, 15, 10ish team. Like what Kirby's done, like he's a made man now. And as long as every year they're in the SEC title competition in the playoffs, it's all good. That's not the case with Ohio State and I don't think that's going to be the case with lsu. But also that's what I think drove Lane to go there. You know, part of, in certain industries when you're, you know, it's pretty clear Lane's pretty ambitious person. You're, you kind of are driven to the craziness. It's like I think a lot of people and listen, I, I sometimes I question what would I do? Like, why would you leave Ole Miss? You got a great gig, they're paying you a ton of money. They're very supportive and you can clearly win there because I want the highest level possible. And let's face it, and this is no shade at Ole Miss. LSU is just a slightly higher level. It used to be way higher in the pre nil. It's still higher. And I just think he wanted to test himself. No different than when Brian Kelly left from Notre Dame and he failed. But I'll always respect a guy for getting up to bat and taking a swing, even if it was ugly. And we can debate that all day long. You could argue everyone's shitting on Lane. What about lsu? It's like they don't care about their business partner Ole Miss, they don't care at all. Like they don't bear any responsibility in this. I, I think it's all just very complicated. Obviously I do not feel like Lane is the victim at all. Him playing that card is a little egregious. But, but I do think like, tough situation, it's not as black and white as everyone's making it out to be. Playing a little Monday morning quarterback. How crazy would it have been for the Lions to trade Dan Campbell and promote Ben to head coach? Obviously he would wouldn't have ever been a thought. But who do you think. But what do you think the Lions could have Gotten in return for Dan Campbell in a trade. I think it's always easy to play this game. I think they played it in New York with Sean Payton. I think they play in Dallas with Sean Payton. I think Dallas has done this before with some of the coaches they let out the door. Sean Payton, Dan Campbell. You know, look at Washington when that picture comes up of like, Kyle and Sean McVeigh. I think sometimes when you are, it's no different than your parents always look at you like their child and you. Sometimes you have to leave the nest to kind of, you know, earn your true respect. Right. There's something powerful about leaving the house at 17, 18, 19 years old and going to do your own thing and proving it to yourself, to them, to whoever. No different than someone that gives you, you know, your first internship out of college. Most people don't take their first internship and then go become the CEO, start in the mail room and work their way up. There are stories of that, but the majority of it are guys that have to go, you know, stepping stone, jump to somewhere else because they use that position to gain more leverage. And like, listen, I think Dan Campbell and I think Ben Johnson, be the first to tell you this. His leadership and his toughness, we would never have got to where we got through the mud in the 3 and 13 season and even that next season. I think he went 9, 7 that year that they beat Rogers at the end of the season and knocked him out of the playoffs without him. Like, I don't know if Ben would have been capable to do that a couple years ago. Now, if you give them both equal teams, like if I give them the Lions, I give them the Bears, I give them the packers. If all things are equal, would you take Ben Johnson like Steve Kerr, would he be equipped to take some shitty NBA team and build them up to like a 7 seed? I don't think so. Would Phil Jackson be equipped? No, but those guys can really handle stars. They're equipped to do that. Steve Kerr has been around Michael Jordan and Tim Duncan, right? Steve Kerr called for the ball from Michael in his heyday. That's. That takes some balls. He's comfortable being around like, no different Joe Torrey being around. Dude on the Yankees. Not everyone can handle being manager of the Yankees. Even if you're though the manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, you can win more games a little bit easier. Less people are watching you, a little less media scrutiny, you know, a lot less people in the stands. Do you get to fly under the radar? So I think Ben Johnson. I do think I'd be stunned if he didn't admit this, that he learned a lot about leadership and just like mental toughness from watching the way Dan handled that. Now, I don't think it's really arguable. Ben is an elite schemer and if you had to have a guy scheme you a game plan on a given week, I think Ben is immediately elevated near the top of the league and that's really impressive to do. But yeah, I mean, if you could have over the next month, who would you rather have calling the plays, Ben Johnson or Dan Campbell for the Lions? You take Ben Johnson. I think you, you know, I think the New York Giants would give up a first round pick for Dan Campbell. Pretty sure. Dan Campbell, did he play for the New York Giants? Pretty sure he did. God, he had great hair. He played for the Giants for a couple years. You know, it's great here and I always notice it on tv. He's obviously, he's been, he's been good whenever I, you know, depending on how my four boxes set up. I don't always listen to him. But J.J. watts, pretty good. He has just elite hair. I'm just, I'm jealous of that flow. Someone that has no hair. No one in my family does though. My brother, I'm actually going to dinner with him Monday night before the Monday night game. He's got, he's got no hair as well. We're bald as a bat. Luckily for our kids, it's on our wives side who, both sides have hair but God, we're bald in my family.