Transcript
John Middlekauff (0:00)
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John Middlekauff (1:34)
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Adnan Virk (1:39)
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John Middlekauff (2:08)
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We have a charger Denver game on Thursday Night Football. One of the last Thursday night football games of the year. A lot of buzz on the big guy, Mike Vrabel, who is a hot commodity out there according to the Internet, which makes sense, right? Belichick off the market. Mike Vrabel, the number one coaching candidate. Him and Ben Johnson. Would he choose what rookie quarterback if he could choose what he want, not on this upcoming class, but you know, between Drake May and Caleb Williams, assuming New England comes open, which looks more and more possible. And we will do a little middlekop mailbag@johnmittlekopf. Ohnmiddlekopf is the Instagram fire in those DMS. If you subscribe on Collins pod, make sure you subscribe to 3Now podcast. We have a YouTube channel so go subscribe to that as well. And we will have reactions coming up to the Thursday night game, to the Notre Dame game, to all the Saturday games. So we are ready to throw out takes and grind here on all these games coming up. So enjoy it. But before we do, I got to tell you about my friends, my partners in the official ticketing app of this podcast. Game Time Christmas right around the corner. Hanukkah right around the corner. If you want to get something for a loved one, put a little present under that tree. Put a little present under those lights. Put a little present that puts a smile on someone's face. You can buy tickets to a game. You can buy tickets to a concert. You can buy tickets anywhere. And you can do it with Game Time. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game time. Download the GameTime app, create an account and use the code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account, redeem the code johan for $20 off down on the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, lowest price is guaranteed. Well, Kirk Cousins has been benched and according to Raheem Morris, he was very classy about taking the news. Well, I sure hope so. For $90 million that he knows has coming to him after 36, coming off a torn Achilles, you could tell him he's gonna run scout team the rest of his life. It's. I looked yesterday, when he gets paid for 20, 25, which is guaranteed $27.5 million, he will have made over $300 million playing football. And you know, sometimes media, younger players get very angry at the older generation for being critical. It happens a lot in basketball. I do understand. If I was an elite guy that played in the 80s or the 90s, especially in football, which was much harder on my body, we didn't play as long. And I see some of the money that's getting tossed around. Kirk Cousins gonna make over $300 million. I don't care. I support other people having success. Good job, Kirk. Great job by his agent, Mike McCartney, who's really good agent. They've done a good job. But I do get the bitterness. I think you just have to ask one question. What took so long? Why did they wait till three games left when he had been playing like shit for, I don't know, 40 or 50 days now, he had been objectively atrocious for the last month. If you watched him on Monday night, he looked like a shot fighter and it looked like it had previously looked like it's over. And sometimes that happens. A 36, 37 year old player who's, you know, for NFL standards, a below average athlete has now, he's never had a great arm. His arm strength looks extremely poor. And I don't know if there are some connections there in the biomechanics of the Achilles, up through the body, up through the shoulder. However it's happening, he's not throwing the ball very well and it shows. He's a bad player right now. But why did this take so long? And I thought about it and I went, well, these guys that run this franchise just convince their owner to give this player $90 million. The, I mean, all the best players in free agency, most of them. Now I get it. Quarterbacks make more. We all understand that, we all acknowledge it. But it's also easy to pay, quote, unquote, overpay your own guy, right? There were points in times where it's like, how good is Matty Ice? But he was the Falcons guy. How good is Dak Prescott? Well, he's Jerry's guy, right? Purdy's going to go through that. Well, he's. He's the Niners guy, when you hire outside and the guy has no equity, sweat equity, blood equity, no production equity with your franchise, like it can get weird and it can get weird fast. And when a guy just stinks, and that's Kirk Cousins right now is just not a very good football player. I mean, he's a bottom five quarterback and it's not like character issues. He's not creating a problem. Like all that stuff's great. It's just like simply play. That can get weird and that can get weird fast. But when I saw this news, I went, could these guys all be one and done? Could these guys jobs be in jeopardy? Because never forget, when Raheem Morris was asked about why his coaching staff was so big, he said, well, we're going to win here. And when you win here, what happens? You lose coaches and you have to retrain guys. Well, we're already going to have guys on the staff for when our guys get hired. That's a pretty cocky thing to say. Also, why'd you draft a quarterback eight after you had just given a four year, $180 million contract and almost $100 million guaranteed to Kirk Cousins? Because we don't ever plan on drafting this high again. And we thought that this was the right move because we won't ever draft in the top 10 again. You're pretty cocky for a guy that had one head coaching stint and is now working for a GM who just led a squad that average seven wins a season for three straight years. Can't draft a quarterback, drafts all these skilled guys. And beside Bijan Robinson, Drake London, like, I think Kyle Pitts won. They would like to have a do over on that one. So it's like, do you guys know what you're doing? Because I think at this point in time, it's why I just simply bet against the Atlanta Falcons. Now, I picked the wrong team. I picked the Saints. Turns out it was the Bucks. But I bet against the Atlanta Falcons. When the season began, I said, no way it's going to be this easy. This team has no winning. You know, I would say history these last couple years, it just thinks one thing's going to switch. And this is not signing Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. This is signing a guy coming off an Achilles who even on his best days has been an extremely polarizing player. And what happened, I would say they have been one of the biggest underachievers this year. And a team that you know as looking forward and projecting is not going to win the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are well, of course they are. They're a better run organization. And this was a team that now is stuck with Kirk Cousins, who this notion of like. Part of the reason I thought it was so insane to make the pick at 8 is. Listen, sometimes you get new information. Obviously some things change between March 15 and the draft in late April. You talk to more people as a general manager, you're able to get on the phone more and really focus on that. But in my experience, during the season, you know, starting in the summer through the end of basically the new year, right, so like December 31st, all GMs worth their salt are evaluating all the top free agents and all the top draft picks. Now, they're not grinding on fifth and sixth rounders, but any guy with a legitimate draft grade, probably, you know, in the top 100 ish, is getting evaluated by the GM during the season. And a team like the Falcons, who have an atrocious quarterback situation the last couple of years, would be evaluating their general manager, would be evaluating all the quarterbacks thoroughly. Right? And Michael Penix is a guy that I really like. I would have drafted Michael Penix, but he was a very polarizing guy in NFL circles. Depending on who you spoke to, some people thought he wasn't even a first round pick. Obviously the Falcons viewed him as the eighth overall pick, which was extremely polarizing at the time. Not just because they had just signed Kirk Cousins, but because, like, is that a major overdraft? I don't necessarily think it was, but I thought like, in football, everyone gets the same amount of resources, everyone has the same amount of money to spend under whatever the cap is, 200 million, 250 million. Every team gets the same amount of draft picks. You just. Obviously they're not all the same slot, but every team gets a first round pick every single year. You get to pick and choose how you want to use that. Do you want to trade up the next couple first rounders, the, you know, the following years and make a huge trade? Do you want to trade back and accumulate more picks? Do you want to allocate your resources? Do you want to pay Brandon IUK $75 million for 75 catches? Or do you want to trade them and use that cap space on something else? My favorite part about the NFL, this is not baseball, where some teams spend more money, every team spending money, and every team's using their draft picks. You just get to pick and choose how you want to do it. And use the Minnesota Vikings as an example. Who, if I was around Ziggy Wolf after the other night, and really after Cousins last month, I'd go, the people that you empowered to run this team, your general manager, your head coach, they fucking know what they're doing. They're not only winning, but they are saving you a lot of money. They chose $10 million because you know what? They knew at the end of the year, we want to draft a quarterback. We are going to draft a quarterback. We were saying that about the Atlanta Falcons during the season. We're going to draft a quarterback. And they spent $10 million on Sam Darnold, which is an incredible contingency plan. If it works out, we get one of the best assets in the league. It clearly is. And they are bang for their buck. It doesn't get any better than a quarterback who's going to throw 35 plus touchdowns, lead you to 13, 14, 15 wins for $10 million, who was a free agent. That's an incredible March, you know, mid March free agency signing. And then there's Kirk Cousins, who we're going to guarantee multiple years, give $90 million, which all has to go into escrow. Every penny you don't pay them. And he almost has a one to one touchdown interception ratio. And we also gave him a no trade clause. So, like, we can't just cut him or trade them. Like he actually controls a lot now it makes sense for him to waive that to go to a new team. But what team worth their salt is trading anything of value for a $27.5 million backup quarterback? Hell, even if you consider him a bridge starter, the bridge starter, we just saw Sam Darnold. That mark is like 10 to 12 to $15 million max. What Gardner Mint you got. So his market value is all out of whack. But the difference with most bridge quarterbacks, ideally they can move because a lot of times the team's probably not going to be in a great position, questionable offensive line, and they're going to have to have some mobility. Cousins has none of that. He's a sitting duck. So to me, this situation, you could say it's cavalier. They just kind of went into it blind. I think it's a major, major indictment on everyone running the Falcons, the way this process played out and these transactions are independent of each other. Because if you knew you really like Michael Penix, which you should know, in the middle of March, when free agency starts, wouldn't you be in the mix to sign a Gardner Minchu with Sam Darnold? Because you would want to transition to a guy who is 24 years old who had been in college six seasons. Say what you want about JJ McCarthy, he was more of a project, right? Drake May more of a project. Michael Penix is not a project. He's a pro ready player to plug and play and let's roll. But you signed Kirk Cousins, which in a perfect world he would have been your starter for multiple years. This is one of the worst transactions we've ever seen, is completely blown up in their face. And I think the reason they waited so long because they wanted to avoid the wrath of their 82 year old owner. They just had to cut him a check. For a guy who did not make it till Christmas and now will not be on their team in year two. And now the pressure put on this young player. What if these, what if two of these three games go poorly and everyone turns on him and goes, God, this guy sucks. What's going on? It's a crazy amount of pressure and I'm a Michael Pennix fan, I'm rooting for him to play well. But what if it goes bad? The Bucs meanwhile, just in the playoffs again for what, the fifth straight year three with Brady, this is second with Baker Mayfield and just feel like they know what they're doing. And the Atlanta Falcons feel like they have absolutely no clue what they're doing. From the general manager to the front office to now the coaching staff, they just kind of feel lost at sea. And I also think the Cousins thing shows and then the Penix is like they're just kind of doing whatever the coaching staff wants. And I just did. In terms of the transactions when they were made, obviously if you're Zach Robinson, Raheem Morris, you'd want a veteran quarterback. Let's get the best one. $90 million. There's like, God, we love this Michael Penix guy. Well, let's draft him at 8. And now it's like you've allocated all these resources in these two guys and if panic struggles these next couple weeks and all of a sudden you have nothing to show for it, it is an epic disaster. And I think it's one that like, would all these guys get shit canned after one year? Because what's worse, being just a complete embarrassment on a bad team, like, you know, the Patriots who might fire Gerard Mayo or the Raiders, well, it's like, well, the Raiders, their quarterback situation's awful, right? The Patriots, it's like, well, like, how's your defense? Way worse. Same players. This situation is like, well, you got legitimate players and then you signed Kirk Cousins and then as the Season goes on. It gets worse. Is just Zach Robinson's fault. Is just the GM's fault. Is Raheem over his head? I don't know, but if I was the owner, I'd want fucking answers. I just got a $90 million check and this guy's on the bench now. And now we have a rookie quarterback. Like, he better start slinging touchdowns here, because if he doesn't, and we're missing the playoffs again. To the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who've had a million injuries. I mean, guys getting injured left and right, star players. And it's like they got a quarterback that they also gave $100 million. We all acknowledge, like, really good. And last year, they got him for nothing. They paid $4 million. So if you aggregate that year on top of his new contract, it actually lowers the value of the overall time that he spent on the team. It's like their coach just kind of seems like he's got a hold of everything and our guys are just kind of swimming upstream without a paddle. What the hell is going on? So I bet against the Atlanta Falcons simply because I didn't think they know what they were doing. And I think as of this week, and really over the last month, anyone with that thought was kind of proven right and it helped it Cousins just. I didn't expect him to just fall off a cliff this hard. But he obviously has a couple other things on coaching. You know, we got a big Thursday night game. Two teams are going to be in the playoffs, the Chargers and the Denver Broncos. And you know, I would have told you three or four weeks ago that the Chargers probably win a playoff game. Then you watch them. It's like, God, with our offense is once all banged up, turns out J.K. dobbins is like Ladanian Tomlinson. You remove him. It's like they struggle to get 50 yards on the ground. You know, Herbert just limping around out there. They got no passing game. A lot of people think Greg Roman's the village idiot. I often go like, well, how about the talent on this roster is not great, but they are very defensive reliant. And when their defense is giving up 30 plus points, like they're going to be in some trouble. They're not really built to win shootouts. I also think you could have a really good defense. And there gets to a point in time in a season when your offense is just struggling that they kind of break. It's almost like the dam breaks. It's like, you know, we just can't hold the Ford anymore. We Need a little help. And it's like the perfect combination, everything kind of falls apart. It kind of feels like that's what's happening with the Chargers. But even if the Chargers lose this game to Denver, they're currently eight and six that they finish with New England and Vegas. So I think, I think they're getting a nine, no problem. And I would bet on them getting a 10. Obviously with the Colts and the Miami Dolphins, who are in shambles, that, yeah, I think the Chargers end up with that seven spot. And if Denver were to win this Thursday night game, they should finish the sixth spot. I actually think they would be a feisty first round team. One of these two teams, whether they win the game or not, is going to be in the mix when it comes to wild card weekend. One of these games going to be tied in the second half because if their defenses play well, things get weird. Obviously Herbert, who can get hot in Bo Nix, you know, he's definitely a wild card because he can throw a couple picks and you're like, what the hell is going on? But he also has proven like with some schemed up plays with Sean Payton, like he hit some big plays. So I enjoy watching Denver now they finish after this Charger game at Cincinnati and then Kansas City. Now that Kansas City game, depending on how these next two weeks could go, could be nothing is on the line. So if Kansas City were to win these next two weeks, then that game would be meaningless. And I would imagine they would rest everyone, which would be an easy win for Denver and basically be a lock even if they lost these two games to get them to 10 wins. But if I was a betting man right now, I'd say Broncos, worst case, 10 and 5, I'd say 11 and 6 on the table. And that's just an incredible accomplishment. I mean, two years after taking over that Nathaniel Hackett, Russell Wilson experiment, to have this team in the playoffs, same thing with Jim Harbaugh last year, that Brandon Staley experiment where they won five games and now you're in the playoffs. It just shows you. I mean, this is why you pay big time coaches, because unlike the Falcons, like, who's actually in charge? Like, remove Arthur Blank, like, who's actually what's going on here, right? Is the GM doing anything? I say the same thing with New England. Like, is Jonathan Kraft in charge? Is Elliot Wolf the guy pulling the trigger? Does Gerard Mayho have any juice? What's going on with the Raiders? Like, does Telesco, Is he the boss? Is Brady get to tell Mark Davis what to do? Like, what's going on? When you say the Denver Broncos, who's in charge? You say Sean Payton. When you say the Los Angeles Chargers, who's in charge, you say Jim Harbaugh. And I think that, like, makes everything a little bit easier. And in the day and age when everyone wants their hand in the cookie jar in the NFL, because even if you're a team president like Kevin Warren, the only way, no one cares how many season tickets you sell, even once you build a stadium, like, that goes away really quick. That fades into obscurity really fast. Like, what's going on with the team? What's going on with the team? And the way to get headlines and the way to get discussed on, you know, Collins show, on espn, on podcasts, on local radio, is to be involved in football and have your hand in that and be standing there in the locker room at the end of the game. And it's why everyone's drawn that way. But it's also why football guys like to separate church and state. Like, I don't need to answer to a non football guy if he's not the owner of the team. And both these two franchises, the Spanos family said, jim, you take it, obviously. The Walton family said, sean, you take it. And for Sean Payton, two years later, it's paid dividends. They're in the playoffs, and honestly, I think they could win a game. Chargers might not win a game because injuries and just their lack of offensive talent, but if I would have told year one Harbaugh in the playoffs, which I knew would happen, but all you guys talked me out of, because you're like, their team sucks so much. Of course, you know why? Because Jim Harbaugh wins. Speaking of coaches, Mike Brable. It's funny, like I mentioned this earlier, but when you have a hot coaching candidate, it's just got to be an incredible feeling of knowing you could leak things. And it just gets everyone talking and freaks out the people negotiating. I was hoping that Sac State would hire Michael Vick. I think that would have been so badass. But it's pretty clear that Michael Vick's representation put it out that Sac State was talking to him to get a little bit more money out of Norfolk State, which you should do. Like, you got to use leverage to your advantage. I saw it with Marcus Freeman, who was like, the Chicago Bears are interested. And you're like, oh, of course they are. You know, he played in the NFL. He went to Ohio State, coach of Notre Dame, like, probably be, you know, should be Talking to him. Well, then a couple like less than a week later, he signs a six year extension. Well, do you think that it came out that his name was in that mix randomly? No. He wanted to get more money as he should. That's what an agent gets paid to do. Every time I look, it's Mike Vrabel, the Bears number one target. Mike Vrabel, he'd be interested in the, in the Patriot job if it became available. Mike Vrabel, would he listen for $100 million at Ohio State? And you just throw this enough kind of at the wall, eventually it's going to freak people out that actually are interested in them. And in fairness, all these people should be interested in him. But if you're Mike Vrabel right now, and let's just say you do have your pick of the litter and let's just say Robert Kraft will fire Gerard Mayo after the season because of just how poorly it's going. And he can't risk ruining his young quarterback a lot like you know what's going on in Chicago. Would you rather coach Caleb Williams or Drake May? Who would ever thought that that would be a conversation? But it's a legit conversation because one, if you did a redraft today, Caleb Williams would not go number one. Jaden Daniels would. And I think the question is who would go number two. And let's face it, the guy Mike Vrabel played or you know, when he was a coach who used to play a quarterback was Ryan Tannehill, who's like a game manager. He comes from the Bill Belichick, you know, kind of school of thought as a player. The Tom Brady that was the quarterback for the Patriots when he was a player was not the Tom Brady that we saw 0607 moving forward. It was much more in the game manager play defense. Now you could argue that's an archaic way of thinking. You can't really operate that way. And I would tend to agree. But your football philosophy is kind of your football philosophy. Most of the way that I look at this world. I'm open to new ideas. But like my core values I don't think have really changed in 20 plus years. Just like most football coaches I know. Doesn't mean they don't implement new things. But their core belief on how to play ball doesn't really change. As they go from 40 years old to 50 years old to 60 years old. They might implement some more things, but they still have a core philosophy of how to play. Dan Campbell, he goes for it more than you know, some of these guys would have done 20 years ago, but like, the way he built his team, it's not paying off right now because they're all injured. But like, defensive line physicality up front and fucking run the ball down your throat with a big ass offensive line and multiple running backs, like, he built his team a lot like a team that would have played in the 90s. And I just wonder if Mike Vrabel, like, would he even be interested in the project that is Caleb Williams? Because that's a pretty big undertaking. I mean, the guy we saw the other night and really most of this year has been atrocious. I mean, I thought it was crazy that everyone just anointed him so quickly before the season. Like, the NFL is really hard. And listen, I thought he would be a lot better given the wide receivers he's throwing to. But you talk about a guy seeing ghosts. I mean, Sam Darnold four years ago got no clue what he's doing and he just freezes. So based on the information we have right now, like, I think you could make the argument, I'd rather coach Drake may. And obviously he has the connection with Robert Kraft. And here's the reality. I think you learn this the older you get in life is whether it's the Bears and you got to deal with Kevin Warren, whether it's the Patriots and you got to deal with Robert's son Jonathan. Most of our jobs, you know, if you do not are the boss or the owner, like, even Belichick, one thing I think he miscalculated is like, Bill, you're not an entrepreneur. You can't just start a football team. Like, eventually you kind of got to play nice. So when some of these stories were coming out, they're like, God, you know, it's going to be tough for Bill to work with people. Like, he needs someone to buy into him because they're only 32 NFL teams and he doesn't have the money or have the capacity to buy one. So he's gonna need one of these owners and team presidents to hire him. Like, that's just a reality. This is not like my job tomorrow, if I was like, yeah, kind of. I just want to do something different. Well, I can just do something different. Whatever I want to do, I could start the company. Doesn't mean it's going to work or not, but I can do it. Like, if you're a football coach, there's no just starting a football team like you need. And as Bill finally did, he had an athletic director and a chancellor buy into him. But he couldn't just start like a college football team or an NFL team. So you do have to learn to work with others. It's a little corporate structure that way. Even Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh, like Jim Harbaugh still answers to the Spanos family. Sean Payton still answers to the Walmart family. Now ideally you just answer to the owner best case scenario, right? But when you got to answer to some of like the owner's kids, I totally understand how that would be tough, right? And it's one thing the owner's kid like Al Davis is dead. So it is Mark's team, right? Lamar Hunt is no longer with us. That is Clark Hunt's team. So another thing like when the dad's still there and the kids in your ass and he's like, well, do I go through you or you still got to go through Pops? Are you just like a 58 year old rich kid that still has to ask your dad for permission on this, where I just might as well call him. But I can't totally dick you over because if your Jad drops dead in a year, then you are actually the boss and I do have to deal with you. So all these situations are a little complicated. So you just got to look at it from the best case scenario from a football team and probably the easiest case scenario with who you have to deal with, with your personality. But I think most of these jobs, whether it's the Patriots, whether it's the Raiders, whether it's the jets, whether it's whatever becomes open the Cowboys were to fire Mike or not renew his contract. They all have severe complications of you have to run the team, manage your coaching staff and your players and also deal with whoever is above you. And some of those might be owners and team presidents, some might be owners and their children, but they all come with their own set of headaches. It's the most wonderful time of year for getting in on all the hoops, football and hockey action at the Draft King Sportsbook. It's the season of giving and we're being gifted. College football and basketball, pro football and basketball and pro hockey too. Almost 24 7. So many games every day. So many opportunities to place your first bet. Try betting on something simple like picking a team to win. Go to DraftKingsportsbook app and place your bet. And here's a gift for all new customers. Bet 5 bucks to get 150 in bonus bets. If your bet wins, download the DraftKingsportsbook app and use the Code John. That's Code Johan for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets. If your first bet wins when you bet just five bucks. Happy holidays from DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem. 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