← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - Matthew Stafford & the Rams out-duel Brock Purdy & San Francisco 49ers on TNF
01:38:50
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- [00:00]
LeVar Arrington
Hey, what's up everybody? It's Levar Arrington here from up on Game and I need you to listen for a moment, all right, and get serious. The hate in this country is getting out of control. It's at an all time high. It's going to take all of us to stop it. I mean, think about it. We're all on the same team in this country, right? Let's take a break from hate so our team can regroup. We need to take a time out against hate. Visit standuptolhate.org to help and join me in calling for a timeout against hate by following at what's up with Hate or posting the blue square emoji.
- [00:41]
Doug Gottlieb
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- [01:13]
LeVar Arrington
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- [01:49]
Doug Gottlieb
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- [02:20]
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- [02:50]
LeVar Arrington
What is going on everybody? How are we doing? Probably better than Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers because their season's over. They lose to the Rams at home with their season on the line 12 to 6. If you watched every snap like I did and probably millions of people did, props to you. That was a old fashioned west coast rain game where no one could do anything until they kind of could. At least the field goal kickers and Brock Purdy. I don't even know what that pass was but that was a pretty devastating moment for Brock and rough night for just the 49ers offense which just embarrassing. It's pretty bad. Big win for the Rams who now, you know, schedule opens up the jets, the Cardinals end with Seattle. I think we're looking at a playoff team. So Stafford and the Rams looking good. Niner season ends so we will dive into that game. Do want to piggyback on some stuff with Belichick in North Carolina? Watch the press conference today. A lot going on. Yeah, just, just want to hit on some Belichick stuff. It's Fugazi Friday. I don't even know if this technically a fugazi but just give a little story about something I've never really utilized and found it during Christmas time. I was kind of blown away. Other than that, we will have Stucky join us as well. Talk a lot of college football actually because the Army Navy game then some NFL games. We got, you know the Eagle Steelers. Who Steelers are a big dog in that game. We got the Bills. Who are the Bills playing again? Oh, Bill's Lions. Bill's Lions. That's a good game. So we got some. We got some good games this weekend. Pretty excited. So Stuck, you will join us, talk some gambling as we do every week and yeah, other than that. Subscribe to three now podcast. We had some separate content go up for when the story broke about Belichick and I will have a mailbag out price Saturday because I got a ton of mailbag questions. So yeah, you guys know the drill. You know before we do. I actually knew a lot of people at this game and I have a lot of respect. You know I love love football but you'd be hard pressed to get me season ticket holder if I had bought tickets to attend that game. So some people like it. I had a bunch of buddies on Instagram I could see that were there. If you want to go to one of these games, One thing with playoff football, depending on where you are, if you want to go to one of these playoff games, if you want to go to one of these college playoff games, put on a jacket or two and enjoy It, I mean, it's big time football, obviously. Concerts, comedy shows, my partners, my friends, and the official ticketing app of this podcast, they have you covered. What's right around the corner? Hanukkah, Christmas. You want to get a gift for anyone in your family? You want to brighten up their day? Get them a pair of tickets. It's an easy gift, it's a great gift, and it's a gift they don't see coming. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use the code johan for $20 off. Your first purchase terms. Apply again, create an account, redeem the code JOHN for $20 off. Download the Gametime app today. Last minute tickets, lowest prices guaranteed. Okay, let's dive into the game. Big picture. The season officially ended for the 49ers. They fall to 6 and 8. And as Amazon had up there on the screen, they now have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. And you don't need a statistical breakdown. Not only are they not making the playoffs, it's time to start resting guys and the season is over. And that was a devastating loss to lose a game with your season on the line after bouncing back like that at home, which is a massive advantage on Thursday late in the season when you get to play. These Thursday night games suck in November and December, especially for teams like this is the Niners second Thursday game. So it's difficult whether you've played multiple Thursday games, whether it's your first Thursday game late in the season. But having the home game is such a big advantage. Obviously the Rams don't have to go far. It's a 45, 50 minute flight. But still you don't have to get on a plane. You have to sleep in your own bed or the hotel bed you're used to sleeping in at home games and to score six points. And I'm sorry, like I've really defended this guy because I've been so impressed over the last couple of years. We just talked on yesterday's podcast about his leadership and what he represents for the team and the way the team views him, how Kyle had him speak to the team. But part of Brock Purdy's game, part of what made him, you know, in the eyes of Kyle, a special player, was decision making. Like he's not some dynamic player with his arm. Right? He does not have a huge arm. Tonight I saw one of Simmons guys on the ringer tweeted out, solac, I think his name is that that Brock Purdy on 20 yard throws was O of 7 with an interception. And several of those throws are under thrown. He under throws a lot of deep balls. Why he doesn't have a big arm? Well, I can live with that if you are an elite decision maker, right. And that for a long time when you know the Niners were kicking ass was a huge part of his arsenal was making the right decisions, was not putting the ball in harm's way. It was like, ah, this guy can become like a, you know, an athletic version of, I don't know, you know, his comp was when he was playing really well, like Drew Brees. And then you watch tonight, you're like, what was that? Five minutes left to go in the game. Your season's on the line. It's nine to six. It is nine to six to put that ball down the sideline and overthrow him by that much. When there are several guys, they showed the still shot. There's definitely a guy in the middle of the field wide open for a check down that at minimum gets them six or seven yards. Again, it was second down there at the 33 yard line. So if you get six or seven yards, you cross that 30 yard line another three or four yards, you either get the first down or you're in field goal range. And moody, you know, who would have thought is just drilling field goals. So at worst you're tying the game. At best, you know, in a couple, in a play you get a first down and keep the chains moving. And he had done that on that drive. He had made a great throw to Ricky Piersol for a first down. He had made a good throw to George Kittle when they isolated him in the slot for a first down. And to make that throw, it's like, I don't even know. That's something like Jameis would do. That's something a bottom three or four quarterback makes in that spot in that position on December 12th. When your season hinges on these last five minutes and everyone knows it, everyone in the stadium, everyone on the 49er sideline, like this is their season. This wasn't necessarily the Rams season though. It was a massive game. That was their season. And for him to make that throw, it's, it's really, it's not even. I can't even explain it, but here's where I can explain. If I can't trust you to make the right decision with the package you bring to the table, we got a major problem. And tonight's not all on him. They also needed, I don't know, their $20 million wide receiver who's tweeting, get me the ball. And then this week with the media is like standing by his tweets like, okay, Debo, people want to like you. People have been rooting for you for a long time. They don't want to call you slow, but you're just not making any plays. And then you finally get a play schemed up. And one of Purdy's good passes tonight, he hits you in stride and you drop it. Which three years ago with the, with the room you had in the open field, especially against this team where you've scored a ton of touchdowns in the past, you take it to the crib, but then he drops it and you know, runs to the sideline and kind of that encapsulates his season, which has been an epic disaster. And for some reason. And listen, I respect, you know, guys having good relationships but forcing the ball as Brock was doing the Debo Samuel tonight, you know, like he's Jerry Rice or Justin Jefferson or Randy Moss. Get better Randy, by the way. It's just, it can't happen. You know, in part of that, like, listen, like that, that's a, that's one of those losses and that's one of those decisions by Brock. Like, I'm sorry, like, I get it, Kyle, you really like him. But. And the 49ers, Jed is not some meddling owner. But before we cut in a huge check this off season, like, we got to have some real conversations. And this is where I've been saying for a long time, like, I'm not one of these people that talk about football. That's anti Brock Purdy. But there is no excusing or defending that throw because what he like, we all, whatever we do in life professionally, we're all good at a couple things and you got to lean into them, right? And the more competitive, whatever business you're in, it's very, very important that you like master those things. Well, he's never going to have some rocket arm like Herbert or Josh Allen. So these deep bombs, Ricky Piersol smokes a smokes would be strong. Beats Akela Weatherspoon on the post. He's open. Herbert or Allen or Mahomes, if they're missing him, they're missing him deep. Purdy under throws it. Akela Weatherspoon, you know, makes a good play in the air. You know, the Niners once upon drafted who's gone on to have a pretty good career. I don't know if you get credit for drafting a guy Than cutting a guy, than having him go on to have success. But either way, like that's a bad throw. There was another throw to Purdy or I mean to Debo down the middle of the field that's just kind of in traffic. And you could say Debo should have caught it, which I don't know how you could say. And that also gets on to Kyle. And this gets back to what Jay Gruden, who came on our podcast had said. His passing game is not great. You study his run game which then his play action passing game is interconnected, which is awesome. But when he has to just spread you out and throw because they weren't going to really run it on the Rams tonight, Trent Williams is upstairs in a suite and when they finally showed the right Trent Williams he had a scooter next to him. So we might not see Trent Williams the rest of the season. He's got a bad injury and he's got a scooter to get around. That's a big problem. So their offensive line is not going to be able to road grade on the left side where over the last couple years when they were in a pinch, you know what they would do? They would put kittle, they would put use check and they would hammer it home regardless who was the running back. And no matter what, they would gain yards a lot like the Rams do when shit hits the fan, they lean what they do well, which like we said is what you got to lean into Purdy. What does he do? Well in theory, decision making. What do the Niners do well when Trent run left, what do the Detroit Lions do? Run right behind Penny Sewell. And tonight they couldn't really do that. And the one thing the Rams do have and I talked to a couple buddies, I talked to one that like scrimmage their defensive line in August in a joint practice. I talked to an advanced scout who study them like they are a violent physical group. Verse is good, right? The other two guys that got in the middle make plays in our physical. So like the run game is not going to work. So what what they have to do kind of spread it out, which I'm not opposed to. Right? And part of spreading it out, you got a quick decision making quarterback and Kyle scheme guys open and a couple times they did. But for the most part like Kyle's just calling slants to Debo. Like how that play is not working. Might have worked for him in South Carolina. It might might have worked for him early in his career. It was not working tonight. Wasn't even completely remotely close to being open. Like, there was no separation. And then they interview him at halftime. I love it too, when the broadcasters like, thanks for the interview. Or they go back up to the booth and like, Al will be like, we appreciate Kyle's times. Like, guys, they pass rules. He's not. He's not like, just volunteering his time. He's contractually obligated now, so he's forced to do that. But then he's saying, you know, like, we got to make some of these tough catches. Kyle, none of these guys are open. You're running basic routes and you guys can't get open for whatever reason. You got a $20 million, you know, wide receiver who's not playing well. I have a hard time being critical of Ricky Pearsall because he got shot on fucking Market street and 99 out of 100 people die. But, like, once he starts playing, I mean, he clearly looks pretty good physically. It's just. He's just not really in the mix, you know, Juwan Jennings. And here's the other thing, and this is where I've not defended Miami, but I have just put it into context. Like, how could anyone expect Miami in 80 degree weather to go on the road to Pittsburgh, to Kansas City, to Buffalo in any of these cold weather environments and have the Green Bay on Thanksgiving? They're going to lose. There is no way to prepare for that. You saw tonight, two teams. Now, Northern California is much colder and typically wetter than LA, but still it's cold. Like Sean McVeigh ain't that cold. He didn't even change a sweatshirt. I mean, talk about the ultimate football guy move. He wore a sweatshirt in the rain. Which you learned when you're like six by your parents. Not a smart move. And if you are, once you come inside to go back outside, you change it. He didn't change it. Ultimate football guy move. I was actually shocked because I was like, I bet he changed it and he didn't. He came out, he was still soaking wet. But I just. I don't get it. I really don't. I'm kind of at a loss. And the Purdy question, people that question, you know, his status in the game, obviously he's got a lot of disbelievers, like, they're going to be feeling pretty good about their stake, where they stand on their position because it is transitioned back to them. And when you make a decision like that, like, I just, I can't take you as seriously as like this huge franchise quarterback that can carry My team, because that's what I need you to hang your hat on. And this is now like you've been starting for a long time. And this is a game just like any football game. We talk a lot about spots and games. Like this is a game like you didn't even need a touchdown. Like a field goal right there, nine, nine. Maybe get a stop and maybe get a game winning field goal, win the game 12 to nine. But your final pass cannot be a pass. That's interception. When the guy falls in the end zone, that, that just, that just cannot happen. So tonight for Kyle, for Purdy, just, just a devastating night. And it's just a devastating season. And it has been completely off from the jump with McCaffrey's preseason and his Achilles injuries. From the IU cold out who shatters his leg, to Deebo falling off a cliff, to the other injuries that have propped up to even the night encapsulated the 49ers season. Dre Greenlaw, who early in the game you think, you know, if Dre Greenlaw wouldn't have tore his Achilles in the super bowl. Do the 49ers win because I forget the exact time of that game that he tore. I think it was the first half. He looked like Ray Lewis. And then you're watching him night, you're like, Trey Greenlaw is a badass. Just cracking people. They had no run game, they were dominating the line of scrimmage. And it wasn't just because of Fred Warren. It was Dre Greenlaw, who is a certified ass kicker. And then off basically a 10 month recovery process for Achilles. He clearly pulls his calf or something and can't come back in the game. And what happens when he disappears? They start getting shredded by Kieran Williams, who's a good player, but he just starts gashing him. And the first half back to the west coast thing, there were more punts, 11 than first downs total. Both teams, nine total first downs, 11 punts. Stafford had like four completions in 20 yards. The Rams are trying to give you the game, but the Niners can't do anything anyway because they can't operate. Balls are coming out of their hands, dropping balls slipping all over the place. It's like, I get it's raining, but holy moly, this can't be the case. And I get it, you're on your third running back, your starter, left tackles out. But just kind of a shitty way to go out and unofficially end your season. Because six points at home, six points at home against the Rams. I just I'm honestly kind of speechless. I really am. And McVeigh's got to be thinking, if I would have told Sean McVeigh today at lunch, wherever they were staying, probably like the Marriott by the airport, you know, we're having a sandwich. He's probably eating, you know, lettuce and grilled chicken and a side of something really healthy. The opposite of anything I'd eat. But you're going to score 12 points tonight. Like I know that for a fact. What do you think he'd tell me? He's like, we're probably going to. We're going to lose. We'd be in trouble. I'd be like, no, actually going to score 12 points and kind of win easily. Like you're going to get the ball back. 5 minutes left to go and never give it back. Technically you did at the, you know, with 20 seconds left, but you kind of cruise, you know, and it's crazy. And it just gets back to, I have to be able to depend on you. We talk about this a lot with these quarterbacks, right? There's that group at the top that are so much better than everyone else, it's not even funny. Then there's the next group, 6 to 12 or 13. And they all do specific things pretty well. And the group Purdy's in like a huge part of Dak Prescott, who you know, Purdy, one of his comps. Not like his comp physically or whatever, but like that was the world he was going to play in. When does Dak get in trouble? When he throws the ball to the other team. You can't turn the ball over. I need you to be like a game manager on steroids. And like Stafford, I can live with some picks because at any moment that fucker can uncork a 50 yard bomb at any moment. Like, he ain't going to under throw many balls if he's not getting peppered because he has one of the great arms we've ever seen. Pretty doesn't. So he's going to have to rely on his head, on his smarts, on playing like Drew Brees, like an Alex Smith, you know, not this good, but Steve Young like control the ball. And that, that throw, that's a tough one, man. It really is. And I like back to the Rams, you know, I give him a little pass, you know, Stafford was all over the map in the rain in the first half. I saw a stat on Twitter at halftime that Stafford is 220 career starts in his career. 220 starts. Eight of those 220 games at kickoff, it's been raining and you're like, how is that possible? And then you start thinking, well, he's basically played his entire career at home in a dome in Detroit and in la, obviously playing in for the Rams the last three or four years. Plays the Niners, plays the Cardinals, depending on the time of the year. Seattle, it might not rain. He's just playing a lot of good weather games. It's a little shocking. I mean I would have bet five or six of those include Green Bay or Chicago, but also played a lot of games in Minnesota. So it's not like he's Mr. Dynamic in the weather. But he made a huge throw in the second half to Puka Nakua. He made another huge throw with the game on the line on third down that essentially iced the game and he came through. And it's like, this is my whole thing with paying a guy. I'm not anti tua, I'm just anti tua. At a price point. If you told me TUA is making Cousins contract or a Daniel Jones contract, where it's essentially a two year deal, totally get it and there's value there. But once we start talking this huge money, I need huge upside. If I'm not getting the huge upside, I have a hard time because at the end of the day I am going to run into Mahomes, Lamar Herbert, like that's going to happen. And that, you've seen it with Dak, they've paid him huge money and at times it's been tough on them to build a team. And you, I think it's fair to say, like Purdy, without some weapons, once you pay him over the course, just wouldn't be good enough. It's why I've maintained the position as this year's kind of gone up and down. Play it out like I'm not in any rush unless we will sign like a Daniel Jones contract to make a huge payment this offseason in its games like today. And it goes back last year, remember on Christmas Eve against the Ravens, where it's like, I don't know, man, I just, I struggle with the economics of it. And tonight that throw is unconscionable. I'm really, really kind of speechless. And now the Rams, they're going to be a team that, listen, they play the jets, which I'm going to give them a win on that one. They play the Cardinals at home, which you never know what the Cardinals by then their season could kind of be over. I'm going to give Them a win there, there's a decent chance. Week 18 at SoFi Stadium against Seattle is potentially win for the division. And depending on how it plays out for Washington now, I mean there is a chance that Seattle and the Rams both make the playoffs. One is a wild card. We'll have to see like how Washington looks this weekend. But I don't think it's inconceivable that just the Rams win out and all of a sudden they would have a lot of momentum. They have a Super bowl winning coach, they have a very, very violent defensive front. They have a Super bowl winning quarterback who when he's on which obviously for the first half he definitely was not, but you know can go toe to toe with anyone and if they were to win the division, they're getting a home game. So if they won the division they'd probably, you know, at 11 and 6 they would be the three seed. Well they probably play the packers then and I think both Seattle or the Rams at the three seed, you know to get that spot and win that division they would be playing pretty good football. Would feel pretty confident in that matchup. That'd be a really good first round game. And then if you win that like, who knows like they stuff that they can do translates, they can rush the passer. I know they got gashed against the Eagles, but that run defense tonight was pretty good. They some of their deep, I mean their DBs make plays, they have a run game. I mean really they got multiple running backs. Blake Corum doesn't play that much because Williams is a really good player. But I'd feel pretty good if he was my second running back. And Puka Nakua is just one of the better players in the NFL and you know Cooper cup didn't even do anything tonight and it's like he's pretty reliable. He's been through the wringer. Like you feel comfortable having him in big games. So nice win by the for the Rams on the road that's back to back wins. You got to be feeling good against. You know, in a four day span against the Bills and the 49ers. I think the Rams right now should have a lot of confidence even if the final score tonight was pretty bad. And a lot of people are going to be like that's the worst game I've ever seen. Which listen, it wasn't a great television product. Still, it's like if you're complaining about it like okay, turn on, you know, turn on the Kings playing the Pelicans. I dare you. I bet you won't. And you probably didn't. I see a lot of people on social media like, this game sucks, Gambler. It's like, well, you're watching it. I'm not. I'm not trying to defend it, but like, what's the point of complaining about it? It's happening. Nothing we can do. We're kind of stuck. But the Rams 126 get a win, so I don't really have anything else to say. Sad if you're a Niner fan. The NFL season is rolling along and the contenders are separating from the pack. The one thing that hasn't changed this season DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, and it's the number one place to bet touchdowns. Long bombs, fades to the end zone, big runs, you name it. We do not care how you get them. We just want to Bet touchdowns at DraftKings and it's the best place to do it. Ready to place your first bet? Try betting on something simple like a player scoring a Touchdown. Go to DraftKings Sportsbook app and make your first pick. Here's a reason for new customers to do a touchdown dance on their own. 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- [28:26]
Doug Gottlieb
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- [28:49]
LeVar Arrington
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- [28:54]
Stucky
This is Doug Gottlieb from All Ball with Doug Godley. Hey, I'm going to talk to you about something that's really serious for a minute. Something personal. Right now. In our country, hate feels like it's at an all time high and we're going backwards and the hate is winning. It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate and it's just enough. We need to stop and regroup, change the momentum as a team, because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team, so let's act like it. And when a team can't get together, what do they do? They call a timeout. We need to take a timeout against hate. So let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate and we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong or hateful, we need to call it out. Visit standuptoallhate.org or join me in calling for the timeout against hate by following hatsupwithhate or posting the Blue Square Emoji.
- [29:48]
Doug Gottlieb
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- [31:04]
Stucky
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- [31:40]
LeVar Arrington
Don't forget your number one fan you so what's a gift you could use? Maybe go to more home games or even travel to some away games while rocking a new away team jersey. Well, they've got something for you. Discover automatically doubles all the cash back you've earned on your credit card at the end of your first year with cash back match with Discover, you could turn 150 cash back to 300. That'll help with the swanky away jersey it pays to Discover. See terms@discover.com credit card okay, North Carolina Belichick, I have seen so many takes. Let's start with the college people because I've actually seen a lot of college people, I would say talk down on this hire and I want to start with this. If you were North Carolina 1, you're not stealing like Kirby Smart, right? You're not stealing Lane Kiffin like established Dan Lanning established college guys that, you know, plug and play can dominate, right? It's not happening. This is by far the best hire you can make. One, it's one of the best football coaches in the history of the sport. Two, the name recognition, the buzz it brings. Your your program is Dion like, like there is no way you could have paid me to watch a 45 minute UNC introductory press conference with 99% of the other people that they would have hired. No one would have cared. Matt Campbell, the dude from Kansas, whatever. No one would have cared. Everyone in high school pro college paid attention today because they hired Bill Belichick. And in the pros winning the press conference is irrelevant. It does not matter. Obviously, when you have a Jim Tomsula press conference, it can be a problem. Sirianni had an awful press conference, won a lot of games. Everyone thought Dan Campbell was the village idiot. Looks like he turned out okay. We've seen a lot of guys like, God, it was really impressive in the press conference. Who cares? It does not matter in the NFL in college. That shit does matter. It really does. Belichick had his general manager Mike Lombardi on Pat McAfee today. Like so he basically has two spokesmen, himself and Mike, who is a trained media podcast guy who can speak for the program. And they got serious outlets to put out their message. So like the value North Carolina got today, whatever they're paying Belichick, they couldn't have paid for that. And what they're going to get over the course of this off season, what he brings to the table. Just from Belichick, North Carolina, he dropped the line today. Like, yeah, I talked. He's talking. Like I talked to Julius Peppers. I talked to Lawrence Taylor, which when you're a football guy, older guy, that's not that weird, right? Obviously Coach Lawrence, Julius Peppers was there. And then he just casually like, yeah, I spoke with Mike. He means Michael Jordan, who I would imagine him and Bill have known each other for a long time. So that stuff matters in college today, mattered in North Carolina, and they should be, if I was a North Carolina fan, ecstatic. So all these people nitpicking, what's he going to do? Guys, they're six and six, they've been kind of irrelevant besides some draft picks here and there. Like this hire is a no brainer from that their standpoint. Another conversation I've heard his legacy, right? Well, here is a reality. If Bill had never coached again, if he had just gone back and forth between Nantucket and Jupiter, Florida with his 24 year old girlfriend and just ridden off into the sunset and just enjoyed watching his son coach and just chilled and had never, ever stood on the sidelines the rest of his life. His legacy and the way we talked about him as a guy with six Super Bowls and you know, the patriarch of, you know, one of the greatest, if not the greatest dynasty of my lifetime would never be changed. And if he loses at North Carolina, like, let's just say it's possible. If this doesn't go well, I'm betting on it, him having success, I think they will win. If he stays there for four years, I'd be stunned if he's not, you know, a playoff coach, especially when you factor in his conference. But if it doesn't go well and it just kind of flames out and this is the end of Bill Belichick, it will also not phase his legacy. Vince Lombardi coached the Redskins after the Packers. Because I was thinking about this the other day, like when I was a kid, like, who are prominent sports people that were basically dead already gone, like not part of my life for the last 20, 30 years as I was growing up, becoming a sports fan. Vince Lombardi, long gone. You close your eyes, you picture Vince Lombardi drawing that sweep for the Green Bay Packers. Bear Bryant, I don't even think I've ever heard him say a word. Long gone. John Wooden, same thing. Now, he passed away in 2010. But Bill Walsh, right, he died, I think when I was in high school. You know, Bill Walsh after he retired, quit, resigned from the 49ers in, I think it was 1988. They actually won the super bowl the next year with. With George Seifert. I think most people view Bill Walsh as winning five Super Bowls, definitely four, like George Seifert won a couple. Bill, Bill. Bill calder quits after 88. Then he coached Stanford where they didn't have any success. Bill Walsh and Vince Lombardi, we hold to esteem. Like, you would talk about business legends like Bezos or Warren Buffett or just like famous people in America. And we never talk about how their career ended. I bet if you polled most people, like under 50, that obviously if they follow sports, no Vince Lombardi, they would have no clue that his career didn't end after the Packers. Definitely most younger people that if you follow football, hear Bill Walsh's name a lot, you would not know that he coached Stanford in the early 90s. So I think this risk for Bill isn't that crazy. He actually doesn't have that much to lose, but he actually has something to gain because there's a short list of coaches who have done both successfully and won it all. I think Jim Harbaugh will be added to the list. Barry Switzer, Pete Carroll and Jimmy Johnson. Now, Pete Carroll was at usc, Barry Switzer was at Oklahoma, and Jimmy Johnson was at Miami. Those are powerhouses forever. And those are places when you get the job and you do it right. Everyone agrees you can win a national championship. They don't say that about North Carolina. But as Bill talked about it today, that's not the world I'm entering. I'm entering this nil transfer portal. A completely different landscape. So will it work? I'm betting on it. There's no sure thing, but here's what I know. If he does flop, it will not impact the way he's discussed to my unborn child. What I'm telling about Bill Belichick In 20 years, it will not matter. Just like when I tell him about Peyton Manning, his last season when he couldn't throw. That won't come up. Or how Tiger woods back does not work. No one cares. They remember the great moments. But if this goes well, like he will be an undisputed. Like it would be the icing on his cake. And you could argue that it would be more impressive than if he would have stayed in the NFL and just won more games past Shula, even if he never won another super bowl, just had good teams like we know he can win if he gets the right quarterback. And last, but not Least on this topic. Listen, I think sometimes when you're dominating, you know, in fairness to Bill, and here's the other thing. Like, one thing that clearly resonates with human beings in this landscape we have right now is authenticity. Like, that's really big. Like, to society right now, all the metrics are inclined to tell you that. And the moment people think you're a fraud or a phony, they're out on you. And that's always been true in coaching because there have been college coaches that were widely viewed forever as like, eh, Guy's kind of a politician. It's kind of the guy Bill's replacing fits that mold. Mack Brown, kind of a bullshit artist. Saban was the best of both worlds, right? He was an elite, no nonsense, dominant scheme guy. But he also could put on the charm. And some of those videos of him dancing at a church or dancing in someone's living room, he could do that. And I don't think he was faking it. So when people are like, how is Bill going to do that? Well, guess what? He won't have to. Just be yourself. You would say Deion Sanders is the polar opposite of Bill Belichick. But why do people relate to Deion Sanders? Because he's been the same. He's acted the exact same since I was like 7 years old and started watching football. He's just now, from a player version, morphed into the coach version. But he's still authentically true to who he is. And Belichick, even today, like, I mean, he's a little more, I would say, open in these press conferences, but he's still Bill Belichick and authentic to who he is. So part of college football, which I don't understand why it's that polarizing. Like, how's he going to dance? Part of the reason everyone makes fun of Brian Kelly, he's making up fucking accents. It's like, Brian just talk like you talk. Or that video where he's spinning around. It's like, you don't need to try to do that now. That was kind of funny. But just try to be yourself. That's got you this far. So I actually don't think Bill Belichick has to morph into something he's not what he is. We'll see if it works. But like, his best chance for success is just to be him. Now. Part of him rubbed a lot of people in the NFL the wrong way. And there was a Wickersham article today. There was an athletic article today. One thing that was said that he burned a lot of bridges while he was in the NFL. And in the Wickersham article, it said that when he interviewed last year with the Atlanta Falcons, that it turned him off when Terry Fontenot was interviewing him, that he acted like he knew everything about drafting. And I think a lot of people had pushed back on Bill that, like, he has to be in charge. Well, in fairness to Bill, even no one, you won't find anyone beside, like, maybe him and some family members defending some of his draft picks, especially at the end, that they were an embarrassment. But in what world, in an interview, could Terry Fontenot look at Bill Belichick and break down the draft of their philosophies and what works and what doesn't and expect Bill Belichick to take him seriously? Like, I do understand if you're sitting in his shoes, like, yeah, now if you want to argue burning bridges and screwing over people and acting like an asshole, yeah, that's probably is not a great move over the countless times he did it. And now he has no job options in the NFL, which is a big reason. Clearly, he went to college. He knew no one was going to hire him. And I think the only place that would have made sense and they entertained it last year was he has a good relationship with Howie. He trusts Howie to make moves. He's even talked about it on national television was to go to the Eagles. And then the Eagles start having a good season. He realized, like, hey, who knows? It might not happen. Like, I'm not going to the Jags, the Bears aren't going to talk to me. I'm never going to the Jets. Like, it's just not going to happen. And the one thing, I said this over the course of the week, and you saw it today. The guy loves to coach football. He's not doing this for the money. Obviously, he's still highly paid in North Carolina. But if you put me in his shoes, if you put you in his shoes with his success, where he's at in life with a young girlfriend, at 73 years old with his son, like, I don't know if I'd work anymore at that point. Like, I think I would just hang out. Now, listen, I love golf as much as anyone. You can only play so much. You get bored. But to have the passion and the drive and the desire to still want to get up every morning at 5:30 or 6 and come into the office and grind, like, you got to respect it. You really do. And he said something today when they asked him a reporter Said Bill, we're basically the same age. So my question for you at this age, why do you want to do this? And his response was, well, it beats working. When my dad, when I was young, my dad told me, do what you're passionate about and it won't feel like you work. And that's the best advice. It's the advice I always give to anyone I've ever met. Because no matter what you do, Bill's not totally right on that. Whatever you do, whether you're a musician, whether you're a podcaster, whether you're, you know, working in a white collar tech job and you love it and you're passionate about it and it means there are going to be elements of it that feel like work, that can become monotonous. There are going to be days where it's like, ah, don't really feel it here. But still, when you love what you're doing, you were that much more inclined to give effort, extra effort, to be that much more determined, to be successful, to take that extra effort. And I have a lot of respect for him doing this because he does not need to do this. He's not doing this for the money. I honestly don't think he's doing it for the ego. I think he's doing it one, because he loves football. Like you can't love anything anymore. I don't have children yet, but the way you describe and I saw it with my parents toward me, like the way you love a child, just unconditional, like it's just, it never ends and never fades and it's just a powerful connection that is not comparable to anything else in your life. That's what Bill has with the sport. And honestly, Mike Lombardi does too. Like, Mike, you're making a ton of money. You're doing all this media stuff. Life's good. He loves working with his buddy, doing football stuff, it's going to take way more time and effort and just your life's going to be turned upside down in terms of working 90, 100 hour weeks, banging tape, recruiting, bringing guys to campus transfer portal. They just love it, man, they really do. And I have a lot of respect for that. And I guess I'll get you out here on this. It is my fiance's birthday tomorrow and you gotta get her a present. And she, you know, ever since she's got this, you know, big real estate job, she's, she's hobnobbing it with some movers and shakers and she's like, I need to get a Bag. I'm like, a bag. She's like, yeah, like a, like a designer bag. Because she has like an Amazon bag that I was like, I don't, I don't even know the difference. A little out of the loop on this. I obviously know and have heard about people with designer bags, but it's just I've never had one. So she started showing me kind of what she's interested. I'm like, what, what should we just buy like a Jet Ski instead? And so I started doing some digging and then in. So my fugazi here is if you ever get in a position where you, you need to, you're thinking about getting one of these things. I, I've never been to a consignment store. I guess I had since I've moved to Arizona a couple times for like furniture, but I had never been to one with like clothes. Like a high end one with clothes, jewelry and specifically bags. So I started doing some digging. I'm like, wait, they have these, they resell stuff. And I went to this consignment store and I start saying, listen, I don't know what really I'm looking for. I just know that she needs a tote bag, whatever the fuck that is. Can you help me out? Can we help you out? Come look. And they just have walls. Now this is Paradise Valley, high end place in Arizona. Like where the house Kingsbury was in. I think Kyler lives there now. J.J. watt. And I'm just like, these, this is exactly what she's looking for. I see the price, I'm like, I get like four of these for the price of half of the real one. Why would I buy the real one? Now some of them a little used, but I found a couple that was like, oh yeah, this one, it just sat in this lady's closet. She never even opened it. She had like 700 of them. Like how much that price? They're like 500 bucks, 800 bucks. I mean the prices for the new ones, I mean you're talking thousands of dollars for a bag. Now in fairness, she's like, what do you want for your birthday? I'm like, Scotty Cameron putter. And you know, the thousand dollar putter, but still, I mean, thousand dollar. I could have bought five Scotty Cameron putters for the price of a bag. But I guess girls like bags and consignment stores. They had so much other stuff. I might go back and shop for my mom, people in my life for Christmas because it's an incredible deal. It really is. So I, I don't know if that's necessarily fugazi because listen, the price of the Louis and the Gucci's and the Pradas and all that, the price, the price they don't do. There's no Cyber Mondays or, you know, Black Fridays in those stores, which I respect. But then you go, it's like, this is the same bag. This person might have used it for six months and it's quarter of the price. And Listen, I'm not Mr. Cheap, but I also just like, well, why wouldn't I just buy three of these for like $1,000? And that's what I did. So we'll find out if she likes it. Maybe she'll throw them back in my face because they got, you know, there's a couple marks we had to buff her out. But ultimately I feel like I did pretty well.
- [49:47]
Doug Gottlieb
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- [50:12]
LeVar Arrington
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- [50:17]
Stucky
This is Doug Gottlieb from All Ball with Doug Gottlieb. Hey, I'm gonna talk to you about something that's really serious for a minute. Something personal. Right now, in our country, hate feels like it's at an all time high and we're going backwards and the hate is winning. It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate. And it's just enough. We need to stop and regroup, change the momentum as a team, because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team, so let's act like it. And when a team can't get together, what do they do they call a timeout. We need to take a timeout against hate. So let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate and we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong or hateful, we need to call it out. Visit standuptoallhate.org or join me in calling for the timeout against hate by following hatsupwithhate or posting the blue square emoji.
- [51:11]
Doug Gottlieb
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- [52:27]
Stucky
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- [53:02]
LeVar Arrington
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- [54:33]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. I don't know. Let's see. Yeah, it's the most combined wins ever.
- [54:40]
LeVar Arrington
A couple years ago. They were both terrible.
- [54:43]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. First time since 2017 that both teams have already clinched bowls and. Wow. First time since 2017. The commanders in Chiefs trophy is at stake. It's the highest total since 2019. But yeah, this is the most combined wins in 125th version of the Army. Navy game. Army. If they win, they'll win their 12th game of the season, which would be the most in program history. Historic game. Always catch it. I used to go, My dad used to bring me growing up when it was at the. The vet in Philly. And I, I went to the link.
- [55:32]
LeVar Arrington
I think in 2010. I think it was, it was pretty cool.
- [55:37]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, the. I think it would have been the Vet and when I was the Army, I remember one time, I mean, I was very, very young, we had a. We were sitting in a section where Bill Clinton came. So Bill Clinton was president. I must have been like, I don't know, eight, nine, ten. And we had. Secret Service had to come and check out our section. And then he came and sat down. That was pretty wild to see as a kid. But yeah, I'll always love this game. If there was a game that would go over, the past two have gone over actually, but like one was in overtime or like two of the past three. One, one was in, went to overtime to go over and the other was on like the last play of the game. This game historically has been on, I mean, just a pure under fest. I mean, since 2005, unders between service academies are 46, 11 and 2. And now the market has adjusted. Markets adjust to these types of things. You know, like the last couple years, the totals would close at like 33. And they never were like that before. If you go back 10, 15 years, you were totals in the 40s, some totals in the 50s. Market's much more efficient now. People have, people still struggle to model these teams. Just your traditional model Army. And the service academies don't really fit into them. They have like their, you know, their yards per play is very low and. But they're fine with getting like 2 to 3 yards. Are going to go for it a lot on four downs. They're going to chew up the clock. But just the familiarity, which is what their advantage is in other games because other teams, they don't get the best athletes, they don't get the five stars. So what their advantage is, they have a unique scheme and more college teams as we, you know that we talked about this all season as the top kind of the talent condenses and we're going to get more parity, the bottom is going to start to fall off more. And with that I think you have to. Some of those teams should consider having unique schemes and unique offenses because then teams aren't preparing for you for that type of offense on a weekly basis. So that's their strength. But when they go up against each other, they don't have that advantage. You're playing against the defense that plays against a similar type of offense every single day in practice. The coaches know, you know, and plus the coaches know what to look for, how to coach them up. And then these are generally very disciplined, I mean service cabinets, disciplined teams. And that is 80% of defending an option attack. Now they're not, they're a little more advanced their offenses than they have been in the past. This isn't just your standard handed off fullback dive fake, fullback dive run outside for the option. They're a little bit more advanced. So if there was a game that would just fly over, it would be this one. But it's against my nature to bet the over in these games. So I wouldn't fault anyone for doing it. But I have a good friend who's heavily invested in the over and I'll probably be trolling him if it's 7:3 at the half like I told him. But I'm looking forward to this one for sure.
- [59:01]
LeVar Arrington
The Davis blue, I don't like Navy.
- [59:03]
Justin Jefferson
If it gets the seven a lot, that's too high because again the familiarity should be lower scoring. This army just crushed Tulane. I think they're the better team. But again the familiarity like just this, it should be close and it should be lower scoring. So I'm waiting to get a seven with the Navy.
- [59:22]
LeVar Arrington
The Davis Blue Devils where I went to high school, we ran the Delaware ring tee Wing tee. So I got a special place in my heart for, you know, the 28 sweep and the 31 fullback trap belly.
- [59:34]
Justin Jefferson
Do they call belly Belly Belly? Yeah, yeah, we run some of that.
- [59:40]
LeVar Arrington
So you know what's funny is like even when I was at Fresno State and Pat Hill ran a pro style offense, he still had, you know, in the run game because they're just, they love running the had run game concepts based in pro style offense with belly and the trap and you know, the Sweep. It's all interconnected. You know, these guys are such junkies. But.
- [60:00]
Justin Jefferson
And some of it and everything in football is cyclical. Like you're starting to see some of those contracts come back into the NFL. Yeah, for sure. I as everyone involved in like catching up to passing and how to defend, spread and pass, you know, you're seeing these teams that again have unique running schemes. It can move the ball in different ways and it's always a cat and mouse game. So everything in football forever will always be cyclical in that sense.
- [60:29]
LeVar Arrington
Well, before we dive into the some of these, we had some really good games this weekend actually on Sunday because Saturday doesn't really exist beside the one game. But you have a unique perspective because you know, you live in I think what could be argued like the number one college basketball era area in America that Indiana, North Carolina. It'd be definitely be in the conversation for us. You know, I think if you just pulled sports fans, Kentucky would be have a strong, strong argument to be number one. But the football program a couple years ago has had some moments. Obviously they have one of the Stoops brothers who's pretty polarizing. But it's not apples to apples with North Carolina, I think, I think you would agree because the SEC is harder. Like he is playing Georgia, Tennessee, now the no divisions, Bama. It's just way more difficult than playing even Mario Cristobal ain't exactly Jimmy Johnson. So when you, when it became final, what was. What were your thoughts as just a college football junkie, someone who follows this shit, someone who's probably bet on and against North Carolina, you know, the acc. Well, what are your thoughts on Belichick going to North Carolina?
- [61:43]
Justin Jefferson
I was number one. I was just shocked. I didn't see it coming. And my thoughts are it could either work really well or just be a complete disaster in how, you know, kids are going to respond to them, how he handles the kids. And that's a big uncertainty. I think what will, you know, because at the end of his career he started to lose his fastball a bit in terms of, you know, I mean the drafting fell off, but just special teams, game management, like a lot of those things fell off. So I think what is going to determine if he ultimately succeeds is who he hires as his coordinators and fills out his staff. I think that's going to go a long way because I, I think another thing that happened to him at the end of the his era in New England, I mean obviously he lost Brady, but he was, he was too loyal to certain guys and that were on his staff. And then he was responsible. And him and Brady were responsible for most of that success. You saw the guys that would go elsewhere, so. But he was too loyal to certain guys that were. So like, is he. Is. Is Matt Patricia going to be the oc? Like, you wouldn't want that. So I'm curious to see. I assume he's going to.
- [63:13]
LeVar Arrington
Would you want him as your dc?
- [63:15]
Justin Jefferson
I think he's going to bring in his son who as his DC who I think did a really good job at Washington and is pretty sharp. So I think that would be a good move. And I think he wants like his son to be the successor at UNC as the head coach, but which I don't know if I can see Steve being a head coach, but you never know how those things work. I think he would be a good DC hire. The OC hire is going to be really important. And then obviously it's all about managing the portal somewhat. Recruiting. How's all that going to shake out? You know, it's not colleges so much more now than just, okay, here's our team and here's going to be our game plan and the X's and O's. Like, there's a lot of other stuff that goes into it. So his staff is going to be. So he has like an aura. He can just go like, hey, I'm a Bill Belichick, come play for me. I have connections in the NFL. Right. He can sell that very easily. But I think his staff, how he fills that out is going to be uber critical. But it'll be fascinating to watch for sure.
- [64:26]
LeVar Arrington
What would you say the coaching staffs he's going up against? I mean, I think Mario is pretty big scam artist when it comes to just out coaching you. Clearly.
- [64:36]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, Mario does all the other things.
- [64:38]
LeVar Arrington
Elite. Yeah, he's elite. Like, Belichick would die for Mario to be like his number three. Right. Recruiting, giving bags, be his own line coach. Like, he needs guys that is big in college football. Like, he can't just bring Josh, Patricia, even Steve. Like, he's going to need some like college football hustler recruiters. Like there is a balance on a staff more than the NFL. Like the NFL, ideally, all your position coaches and coordinators are just scheme guys. In college, there's a lot of guys making seven figures or high net or high six figures because they can recruit and interact with high school kids and coaches.
- [65:17]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. And yeah, I think. And it's a great point. I think that like Patricia.
- [65:21]
LeVar Arrington
Patricia ain't resonating with people like he's. To me, that's one for Bill. It's like I just, I'd pivot on that one, but he's not going to. Patricia's going to come.
- [65:31]
Justin Jefferson
I'm also curious just how much weight and gravity does he have in terms of recruiting?
- [65:36]
LeVar Arrington
So I think he has a lot.
- [65:37]
Justin Jefferson
I would assume so. But I'm not eight, you know, I'm not 18. Right. Like, so like Bill Belichick, how much old does he still. Does he have with an 18 year old now? And I. It's going to be a lot. But how much? Right. How many more of those four potential five stars can he get because of who he is and because.
- [65:56]
LeVar Arrington
Does it, does it matter now with money?
- [65:58]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, I mean it's. I think it matters a little bit, but not as much. But yeah, you got to manage the portal. You have to, you have to do all those other things. But like crystal ball you, you also still need to, to manage the game, prepare your team. So it's a, it's a fine balance and he can't treat the, the players the same way. I mean maybe he can because he's Bill Belichick. I mean Saban would just, you know, he would lose his lady ran it like a military. But yeah, you know, they're kids, not adults. And how is he going to manage the difference there, it's, it's not the same. So I just think it's going to be a fascinating watch to see how it all plays out. But I'll definitely be watching his staff for sure and how he fills that out because I think that'll go a long way in determining where this goes.
- [66:46]
LeVar Arrington
One thing will be interesting. I think you said this is like people forget that Alabama the last couple of years has been a little shakier, you know, in terms of some of the nuts and bolts of penalties and stuff.
- [66:55]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah.
- [66:56]
LeVar Arrington
And I, and I do wonder, you know, part of what Nick had advantage of. He's obviously, you know, one of the rare college defensive guys who's just an elite Belichick level schematic guy, but he was also getting the best players while pre transfer portal. By the time most of those guys started, it took them a year or two in the program before they started. He had two or three, four years with everybody and then once transfer portals started happening, you don't get as much time. Well, part of Belichick's whole thing, the reason he always said like he would take. I'm just going to use this example, Cole Strange, you know, guys that aren't as talented, he's like, why the fuck you drafting that guy? Because he thought they were smart and they could learn his complex stuff. So like. Well, you're getting guys coming in and out. The complexity of everything they do. Like, what's Josh McDaniel's thing was? Patriot offense is really hard. Only Brady can remember. Gronk used to be like, tom, you got to calm down. No one can understand what you're saying. You're speaking Chinese here. And that to me, like, now Belichick at his core is a teacher. He obviously understands that. But that's going to be a challenge of like the balance of how much you can give kids that might only be in your program for a year or two, right?
- [68:05]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. Yeah.
- [68:05]
LeVar Arrington
That's going to be fascinating.
- [68:07]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. And maybe part of the saving thing also was just you lose your fastball. I think they're like the same age. They're like 73. So you can't do as much as you used to be able to do. You're probably not as sharp as you used to be. So again, that comes back to your staff and who you hire and who's around you, which is what I think it'll come down to. But there's, there's so many layers to it and it'll be a fascinating watch and fascinating win total and everything to talk about. Because in this era of college football, we saw it this year. Look at Indiana in the College Football Playoff. There's so much variance year to year with these teams. A team like Ohio, Ohio was bottom five in returning production in the on offense and defense, lost pretty much everyone. They lost Rourke, their quarterback, to Indiana, who led into the playoff. This team lost everybody. They won the Mac. I mean, they were picked as one of the worst teams coming in to the season. There's so much variance in a year to year basis. So you can. You grab a certain number of players, you make a coaching hire change that works out 10 win. You can find yourself in the college world playoff discussion because it's the acc. Like, it's not like, yeah, sucks. Yeah. It's not the sec.
- [69:25]
LeVar Arrington
It sucks. And their biggest advantage, Florida State in Miami doesn't exist. If he's got $20 million to pay people, as they say, that they're going to fill his nil coffer up. So that's.
- [69:35]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, the money, that's another thing to watch. How much money do they have to play with? Because that's. Yeah.
- [69:39]
LeVar Arrington
Because it wouldn't have made as much sense 10 years ago. Right. Going up against Miami and Florida State, you're too big of a disadvantage. Well, now you go, I can buy more players. I think Dan said recently. Right. We're going to have more money moving forward.
- [69:51]
Justin Jefferson
Yep. Yeah. Another thing to keep in mind, just because it is bowl season. I'm sure we'll talk about more of these in the College Football Playoff games in future episodes. But certain coaches care more about bowls than others. And as you might imagine, Crystal ball not one of them. Because what does crystal ball care about? Recruiting, filling out the road. What do you think he's. You think he's spending time on the game plan for Iowa State over the next couple weeks? Probably not. And crystal ball is not been good. Let me see. He's 26 and 1, I think, against the spread in bowl games. So it's all playing, though, right? What's that? He says he's going to play.
- [70:33]
LeVar Arrington
Now.
- [70:33]
Justin Jefferson
This is a fascinating development. There's going to be like in recent years, the only top five picks, like projected top five picks that I can remember playing. I'm sure there's more. This is just off the top of my head, but I remember Alabama. Bryce Young and Will Anderson both played in the bowl when everyone was like, they're yeah, they're not going to play. And everyone was betting against them, including me. And then they ended up playing this year. But if you go back and you look at all like the quarterbacks, you the top five that you sit out, if it's a meaningless bowl, not if it's a playoff game, but this year you have like all of these guys are saying they're going to play. And, you know, the Colorado. Dion came out, he was taking a little shot at Florida State. He says, you know, we don't opt out. We have CR program crater the next year. But he says, like Shador and Travis Hunter are going to play like their projected top five picks. Cam Ward comes out. I think it was on a zoom call with Dion, says he's going to play. Now all this stuff is kind of new. I don't know if there's. So the sample size isn't great, but I don't know if there's number one. They, it could change their agents could get to them and say please don't play. But there also could be. They also could just play a little bit and then not and then come out of the game. But there also could be like nil deals tied to not opting out. So a couple million dollars I don't know if it would be like prorated or what. I don't know how that works, but I've read rumblings of that. I don't, I don't know how the contracts work, so there could be other things at play. But it's very surprising that if you look down the board at all of like the top quarterbacks, it looks like most of them are going to play. I'll be curious and I'm so, I'll be curious to follow that and how it plays out because there have been guys before that said they're going to play and then agent gets in their ear and they end up sitting out. Like I think Marvin Harrison was trying, he was hurt but he was like said he was going to play but you know he didn't end up playing. There's most of the guys recently have not, but it looks like this year some of the top guys are going to play. It'll be very interesting to watch. I have a, a tracker that I spend countless hours on every single day. Following injuries, coaching moves, portal movement, opt outs, you name it. For every single bowl game. Just go to my Twitter profile, it's in there at Stucky too because it's, it's like a full time job monitoring all that. So if you're betting the bulls, check that out because literally every hour there's someone going in the portal, someone saying they're going to opt out. So I mean it's, it's insane.
- [73:11]
LeVar Arrington
Well, sometimes coaches leave, right? Assistant coaches, like a linebacker coach or a coordinator might just take an upgrade, a job and they leave before the bowl game.
- [73:19]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah.
- [73:20]
LeVar Arrington
So that's, yeah, that's important. I give you a lot of credit. I don't know how you even track that. It's a lot of shit going on. It's not like there's 32 NFL teams, there's how many Division 1 teams?
- [73:28]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, there's, well, there's 80 teams to track. The good thing is you can remove the playoff teams. There's more playoff teams now because you know that everyone is going to stay and play. But yeah, you're talking like around 70 teams that you gotta follow. It's, it's a lot of work that the head coaches are really interesting teams that haven't had a head coach over the past two cycles. They've gone.09 in bowl games, I think two and seven against the spread. And it's not like they've lost. They've gotten blown out like Purdue, LSU two years ago, Syracuse last year lost 45 nothing to South Florida. And I think part of that again not the biggest sample size but I mean there's count all of most of those examples the teams just got ran off the field. Oregon State last year if they lost Jonathan Smith, Notre Dame didn't even play anybody and destroyed them. But I think what happens is once a coach leaves, you're most likely going to have a lot more opt outs and there's not what's the incentive to play. You're going to have a lot more guys hit the portal even before the game starts in the betting market. You're probably gonna have a lot more guys that the betting market didn't find out about that end up opting out. So yeah, teams without a coach and like this year, I don't know, it's like West Virginia, Ohio and Jacksonville State actually play each other. So that doesn't really count.
- [74:48]
LeVar Arrington
North Carolina have a, have a go. Six and six.
- [74:52]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, North Carolina is one of them. Freddie Kitchens is there. Remember him? He's going to be their, their interim coach. So I, I list all them out too. So there's. That's definitely worth watching because historic over the past few seasons in this new era that unlv, although Cal's starting quarterback hit the portal. Their backup got hurt. So now they could be down to their third string. That game is wild. Cal's up to a four and a half point favor now. Down to one. I don't know what to make of that game.
- [75:23]
LeVar Arrington
You know what I heard about the Cal quarterback? He's going to go to Miami.
- [75:27]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, he's, he's probably going to get paid. And, but, and then like you the writings on the wall you saw an hour before it was announced his top receiver hit the portal. So you can kind of read some tea leads. You're like, oh, there might be something coming here. Washington State's quarterback might hit the portal soon. Sam Houston State doesn't have a coach. They have, I don't 11:12 guys in the portal, but they say they're going to play. That could be like James Madison last year they didn't cover when Signetti lost, but most of them ended up playing. So that. And because Sam Houston say new, new team to FPS, they might be excited to play in a bowl. A team that might not is Marshall. I think Marshall has the most guys in the portal. The starters in the portal. Their coach left. They won the conference championship. Their coach left for Southern Miss from Marshall. They didn't get along with the program. All their, I mean most of their starters have at the Portal and they're QB1, QB2, QB3. They're down to a couple freshmen. I don't know which one they're going to go with. Marshall could be a mess. They're playing army. And one last nugget. I know I'm rambling. Service academies in bowl games usually a great bet reason for that they always show up. Motivation is not an issue. Motivation in these meaningless bowl games is huge. Does the team care? Did they prepare? Do they want to be there? Who opted out? Service companies don't have to worry about anything. You know they're going to show up. You know they prepared. You know they're going to care. And so 70 against the spread service academies and bowl games since 1990 and one of them army is playing Marshall.
- [76:59]
LeVar Arrington
I didn't know if this was true or not but I saw on Instagram did Marshall again. I felt like this guy was making this up. And the comments said it wasn't quite true that every single guy on the team opted out or went to the transfer portal as basically because they wouldn't pay him. That's why the guy left. I don't quite know the deep. Not that it matters because funny thing about the Cal quarterback. Did you see the clip when they beat Stanford like second or third of the last week of the season that went viral of him going died on the field. My guys, it was incredible moment I heard on like Wednesday or Thursday of the next week and this, this happens a lot. I guess college football people know this that he just goes up to Wilcox again after one of the more viral moments. Everyone's like God, the passion. This is why we love and looks at Wilcox and says I'm sick. Which is the new I'm fucking out of here. So it's like we live. I'm not taking. I guess that moment was real. But how could it be real if he already. He already knew he was leaving. Surely it's like this is good luck Bill. This is a crazy world where you just go up to Wilcox. This is. There's like a 50 year old guy just like I'm sick. It's complete. It's a lie. He's not sick at all. And then he's now in the transfer portal and he'll be with Mario. So I. It'll be interesting. Maybe Bill's going to like it. My take is that it's kind of like Silicon Valley probably 20, 30 years ago when even the government didn't know there are no fucking rules. And what has Bill always done push the rules. Why does he always hate Park Avenue? Because they were the ones. They were like the government. He fucking hates that. He wants to just let me cook. Well, college football, it's like you can do whatever you want.
- [78:37]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. He was always finding like the little.
- [78:40]
LeVar Arrington
There are no loopholes because there are no holes. It's wide open.
- [78:43]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. Yeah. That's really interesting with Mendoza. It's something I'm gonna have to watch in the future. Like in that final weekend. Teams that are already bowl eligible with quarterbacks. Because I had no idea. No one had any idea. The line didn't even move that Mendoza was out. Like this wasn't announced during the week. Probably just sat out. No one's going to portal. Wilcox then comes out four days ago and says Mendoza will be back next year. But yeah, obviously he's not. And he went to Columbus High School in Miami.
- [79:12]
LeVar Arrington
So he's gone.
- [79:14]
Justin Jefferson
That would make sense. But yeah, that's one to watch. They could be down to the third string because their backup got hurt. So that that game versus unlv, I don't know where UNLVS had at. They were playing to go into a playoff. Now you lose your coach, your OC is gone to be gone. That's. That's some of those games.
- [79:31]
LeVar Arrington
Why would he take the Purdue job? Is that much better than UNLV in this nil era? Yeah, he got paid. It's big.
- [79:36]
Justin Jefferson
I assume it's just money.
- [79:38]
LeVar Arrington
That's probably give 40, 50 million bucks.
- [79:42]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. Like the. John Summerall is a really good coach AT T Lane. I think he's eventually going to get an SEC job. He was rumored to be going anywhere and he actually signed an extension with Tulane. He was asked like, are you going? Are you going? He said, look, I don't know, I want to stay. But if your newspaper offered another newspaper offer, talking to the reporter offered you three times as much money, you're probably gonna really consider it and maybe take it. That's a lot of times that's all it comes down to. So yeah, I, I assume that it's money, but that's a tough job and you can like you have to. The Ohio coach Tim Alvin went down to Charlotte. You're that. I mean Charlotte has not been good and there's more resources. You probably got paid more. You're down in the south for like recruiting, but the floor is so much lower. Like at Ohio, you can field your team. That's going to be decent. You just won a Mac championship the floor and you can Just flame out and that could happen. Ryan Walters was a hot coordinator name and, you know, at Illinois and hope that he had, you know, all he did was run cover one. He had three defensive backs playing the NFL in one year. But he goes to Purdue. They. I mean, they just don't have the resources. And then you're competing in the Big Ten and you get. And you. You're gone in a year or two and then where are you? I mean, I. So I. I mean, Odom is. He's not a.
- [81:05]
LeVar Arrington
He's like 50 years old. 40.
- [81:07]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. So it's not like he's just probably trying to get as much money as he can. He's 48. And then if it doesn't work out, I'll go be like a coordinator in Arkansas. So. But yeah, those are. Those are definitely interesting decisions, but I'm assuming that was just a money, money decision.
- [81:23]
LeVar Arrington
Okay, let's go to State. That's near and dear to your heart. With two teams that are a pretty big deal in that state, both two of the bigger NFL brands, the Eagles are on a night. They are a win away from the longest winning streak in the history of the franchise. Yet this week got weird, and it got weird fast when Brandon Graham basically admitted they don't like each other anymore. And it's like, you can roll it back all you want. You said what you said you've been with the team for literally 15 years. You know, and that was a big selling point. Remember when they traded for AJ Is those guys were boys and they're clearly not anymore. And I. From what I've heard, it's not just that Jalen's a hit or miss passer. I think there's some personality stuff and it kind of shows. Like, I bet on the Eagles in terms of they were my pick just based on talent. You watch them, they're loaded with talent. I mean, they are. The offensive line's awesome. Obviously. Adam Saquon, the receivers, the tight end, they're fucking defensive players. I mean, Jalen Carter, he might be a wild card off the field. Red flag when he is on. I mean, there's Larry Allen might whiff him. I mean, he's a special, special talent. Cooper DeJean, the rookie corner they have is a stud. But, you know, you watch the Lions, it's like this. This group unit is like, jeez, these guys love each other, right? You watch the Chiefs and the Bills, it feels like much more of a team than. You watch this squad. That's where this Tomlin five and a Half to me, seems a little outrageous. It'd be one thing if the Steelers were like a 6 and 6 team. Like, they've been pretty good. I thought that Russell played like, his best game. Obviously, Pickens wasn't playing. So the lollipop throws. Then he made a couple throws in the red zone last week that was like, God, this is kind of Seattle Russie. And I don't know how they do it, but no team drafts pass rushers as well as them. I mean, they got random white guys coming off the edge. You're like, who are these guys? And then obviously TJ Watt, I think Cam Hayward. I mean, you talk about a guy that rolled back the clock. Every time I watch them. He looks like really good for a guy that's 35, 36 years old. I kind of like the Steelers to win this game. Honestly. Stucky definitely hammering them, plus the points. Cause I think the Eagles and I, you'd have to agree. Like the Jalen, their passing game is just off. And to me, it's him because he's not a great pocket passer. So it's got to be the freelance plays outside the pocket. And those are just going to be hit or miss in the NFL.
- [83:50]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. And under pressure, his numbers crater, which the Steelers can get. Yeah. Taking Tomlin as a dog. I mean, he's the most profitable coach in NFL history against the spread as an underdog this year, they've been underdog five times. They've won all five outright. So this is your classic Tomlin spot. Along those lines, if you look at these Tomlin dog spots, the under has hit almost at just as high of a clip. I like the under in this game. I think they're. They're kind of correlated. What happened? One of the reasons why Tomlin, his teams are so good as an underdog, he gets them up. He's like a rah rah coach. But he'll also play these games very conservatively. And I mean, that's his nature anyway. But he's going to rely on his defense. He's going to rely on his special teams and keep the game close. And then what happens? They waddle, strip someone in the fourth quarter, and then they'll get a short field touchdown and win the game. Like that's. He just wants to keep the game when he knows he's overmatched as an underdog. Keep the game close. Don't lose it. Don't lose the turnover. They're the only team in the NFL the last seven years that hasn't lost A turnover battle in any season. Their one possession record over the past ten years. NFL. So don't lose the game. Don't turn it over. I don't think they're gonna have a ton of success on offense. The Eagles defense is peaking and it's. And it's real like they're young corners. The Fangio. It's a complexity. They've really picked up on it. But the corners that made the biggest difference, they're number one in the NFL. Against the deep pass, there's no pickings. That's been the best form of the Steelers offense. The deep pass with Russell his intermediary and.
- [85:24]
LeVar Arrington
Wait, you don't think picking is going to play this week?
- [85:26]
Justin Jefferson
No, I mean they said he was doubtful yesterday, so I doubt it. I mean they're in good position for the playoffs that like why push them? It sounds like. And I believe they have the Chiefs and Ravens coming up. They do. Which are bigger games in the grand scheme of things. So I don't think that he does play. So. And the Eagles run defense has been really good and trending up. So I don't think the Steelers are gonna have much success offensively and they're going to play it close to the vest and. But the Eagles are running as much as any team in the NFL by a wide margin. So clock's going to be running in this one. Neither team's particularly fast. And yeah, the Steelers defense, the run defense I think can hold up against Barkley. They'll show up, they'll be hyped up, they can get pressure on Hertz. And I'm just curious to see. The other thing is the Eagles can't score in the first quarter, which plays into the Steelers hands. It's like keep it close, right? Just make this a grinder. And they've been like the worst offense in the NFL in the first quarter. They can't score. Their script has been so bad. I am curious to watch like how does this Brown fall out play out on the field? Does it throw off the offense? Are they trying to force balls to Brown to make him. They came out and they said we need to get on the ball more. So like is it going to throw off like what they're trying to do and how that chemistry plays out throughout the game if he's not getting the ball, they said they squashed in a meeting. It'll be interesting to watch. But yeah, you can't go wrong with Tomlin as a dog and usually that's correlated with the under which I like.
- [86:52]
LeVar Arrington
Here I saw like a social clip of Man Genie saying like that's insane to say that out loud. Like Kellen Moore just said that I my pushback would be once they work to get everything settled, clearly they're going to try to feed their guy. So whether you say it or not, I think Mike Tomlin and Terrell Austin with Minka Fitzpatrick going over the defensive strengths and weaknesses and game plan would go. They're going to force feed this guy. I don't need to hear Kellen Moore Sirianni talk. The other thing is, you know, kind of nerdy football. How about the kicker match up here? One guy is turned into Justin Tucker 2.0 and the other guy is not very reliable right now. Jake Elliot looks like Jake Moody right now.
- [87:36]
Justin Jefferson
I mean one of the biggest reasons.
- [87:38]
LeVar Arrington
The Steelers get in a close game, I mean you gotta like the Steelers one guy he's a kick away from. Are they going to start booing him at the link?
- [87:46]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, he has lost his kickers. They lose, they lose it mentally. It's. It's gone at least for that season. And yeah, Elliot looks. Even his makes look shaky and he was automatic last year. But if you look at the division, Steelers are 10 and 3, Ravens are 8 and 5. The Bengals are 5 and 8. The Browns are 3 and 10. Everyone's lost close games. They all had kicker problems except the Steelers. The Steelers have had arguably the best kicker in the NFL this year in Boswell in one of the toughest stadiums, by the way, to kick in with some of those swirling wins, especially on one end of the field. But the Ravens I think have lost their games by a total of 22 points and in their losses. And I think that's the amount of. I think Tucker's missed like 21 worth of field goals, 21 points in those games. The Browns, I mean, every week they finally cut them. But Hopkins, I mean, look at Hopkins last week missed a couple field goals against the Steelers. The Bengals, I mean, McPherson was shaky and now he's hurt like it matters. And especially with the Steelers who want to play these close games, their kicking has been so much superior to everyone in the division, which might end up making the difference when it's all said and done and get them, get them put the Ravens in the wild card, which not many people thought coming into the season, but yeah, that could end up. That's something to watch in this game. Tomlin would love for this to turn into a field goal battle where they would have the edge.
- [89:16]
LeVar Arrington
Well, I know he's injured Right now. But the Chiefs post Tyree Kill have played in a lot of tight games and Bucker's been pretty good for him. Right. I mean that's it matters another and.
- [89:25]
Justin Jefferson
Again you look at why these teams if the best teams, the best one possession teams of the past 10 years, the Chiefs and the Steelers and part of that is coaching. Part of that is you don't turn it over and part of that is having a reliable kicker. You're going to be in a close game. One possession game need to go kicker. Like what's going to happen with the Chiefs? Mahomes, they're down. Mom says the ball late. He's going to find a way to score to get in the scoring range and then Bucker is going to make the field goal. Now it's a little shakier now because you got Matthew Wright who's been pretty good but he's not Bucker who ends up I mean the Chiefs luck this year is. We talked about this last. You want it to end these games don't they don't mean that much. I mean I guess you can get home field but man every week they went on the last play the game on something crazy.
- [90:16]
LeVar Arrington
Well think about this. If you're the Chiefs, you know I think the Steelers mainly fall in this category too. If you're going to score, let's say feels like most games two touchdowns and kick, let's just give you a conservative two field goals, that is six points in field goals and two points and extra points, that's eight points. So if you were to miss an extra point and a field goal, that's the difference between eight and four. Well if you're only scoring 18 to 20 points that's a huge 20% of your points. Yeah. So it's like they are relying especially this, you know when Bucker was healthy in the Steelers, like that's a big deal. It's like I win 19 to 17. Well if that fucker misses his 48 yard field goal, we lose the game.
- [90:57]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, and the Steelers too. Like the important part of them getting like home games in a playoffs and cold and weather in that stadium in particular like Boswell's unfazed by it. There are teams that won't attempt a 55 yard field goal in that stadium on one side especially if there's any weather they'll just punt it. I mean for a long time Justin Tucker led that stadium in 50 plus yard field goals. Didn't even play for the Steelers. And you know Boswell's clearly overtaken him now, but that's how hard that stadium is to kick. You get home playoff games, that's a major edge. Like you said, in a game where two field goals could be a third of your points.
- [91:41]
LeVar Arrington
Okay, Bills, Lions, I think it's easy to look at that game, right? I think you can look at it twofold. Understandable. They just clinched the division coming across. The Rams had been kind of shitty all of a sudden. Looked like the Rams team that we saw at the end of the year last year. They were clicking, Stafford was humming, and they jumped on him early. And then Josh Allen turned to Josh Allen. We got a game down the stretch. I think this is one of your. Feels like one of your classic spots where everyone overreacts a little bit and hammers the Lions. I mean, the Lions early on in that game against the packers, you had Jamal Adams running around out there on defense. I haven't looked at their injury report in the last day, but, like, they have a lot of guys that are legitimately injured. So I just think this is. This is a spot where everyone thinks the Lions are, you know, the O7 Patriots. And obviously offensively, they're pretty incredible. But I do think this defense, it's one thing, you know, the packers just play so shitty sometimes early in games. I thought they lost that Thursday night game in the first half when they had seven points because in the second half they calmed down. They were scoring at will. It's like, well, if you fucking guys just had 13 points in the first half, you're not stressing this game. Instead, it's like, touchdown, Touchdown. You went back and forth in the second half. It's like you lost it by scoring seven points against freaking Jamal Adams in the first half. It was. If I'm Aaron Glenn, like, that is my resume. Just watch the first half with these random cats against the Green Bay packers on Thursday Night Football. Because, like, I like the Bills here, plus two and a half.
- [93:23]
Justin Jefferson
I do, too. I'm waiting to see if there's a three that pops, so I'm gonna wait. There's no sense in jumping in now. At two and a half, it goes to two. Whatever. It's much more detrimental that if you bet two and a half and you can get a three. This look, I love the Rams. Last week it was just a really good spot. And Stafford was just on fire against the zone, which he tends to be. Bills are zone heavy. Don't blitz. That's what you want to do against golf. If you play his numbers against man the lines offensive Numbers mentioned this in previous weeks against man, if you look at them compared to all the other teams you have, you need like extra pieces of paper. If you graph them out, they're so much higher zone. They're like against zone. They're like the seventh, eighth best offense in the NFL. Bills predominant zone team now. They're gonna probably down one one of their starting corners in Douglas. It's had a down year, but that'll still be somewhat impactful. But yeah, I think that the Bills, their offense. We talk about the Lions offense indoors. The Bills offense with Josh Allen indoors. I mean this is a team that scored five. They've scored 30 plus five straight games. They played a bunch of those games outdoors and they haven't had all their weapons this week. Fully healthy. Kincaid full participant. Coleman full participant. They have everyone back. So this offense, if you look historically, Josh Allen indoors, this includes his loss last week in which they scored, you know, 42 points, nine, two and one against the spread 81% covering by nine points per game. And if you. And Allen is an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal 27, 14 and two against the spread 66%. And this is when you want to fade these teams that have a 90 plus percent win percentage, they look invincible. Teams with a win percentage north of 90% the month of December overall, 21, 48 and 2 against the spread, 30% against the spread since 2003. But I just think this Lions defense, when you account for all the injuries, they are so ripe to get just absolutely shredded. They're playing very aggressive to make up for some of the injuries. They're blitzing a lot. They're playing a ton of man single high. Go back and look at the who the Lions have played this year. Name me an elite quarterback with a fully healthy offense. Haven't faced one. I mean you look at the Lions Lions schedule they've played now Jordan Love.
- [95:52]
LeVar Arrington
You don't count Love last week.
- [95:53]
Justin Jefferson
He's like in somewhat there. I mean but the packers put up. What did they put up? 30 when he was healthy. Yeah, but I don't. He's not in the Allen tier quite yet, you know, but they played the Bears, the Colts, the, the Jags with Mac Jones. They played Stroud when he didn't have any of his receivers and they, they really should have lost that game. They played a hurt Love. They played the Titans with Mason Rudolph, the Vikings with Darnold. He's playing well, but he's not elite. And they, the vikings put up 30, you know, so you look back they haven't had to face and Elite I guess you can go back to Stafford week one but there's all his offensive line and Nakua got hurt. His offensive they were down to like their sixth center and Hutchinson would had like eight sacks in the second half. The Bills offense fully healthy and the way that the Lions are playing right now, you can get away with that against mid tier quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks. But with you know your single high playing man trying to blitz Josh Allen you're going to get picked apart here. And also you don't want to play man against Josh Allen. He especially indoors. That's where I think the Bills have the edge over the lines is Allen third downs can run and get the first downs which which Goff can't. And against man his legs are super important. So I think this would be a really close game. I think it's closer to points up. So give me the points. With Josh Allen indoors with a fully healthy offense against Lions defense could be a little healthier today will be a big on the injury front like McNeil could be back. Could get a couple guys in the defensive line. Not sure about Reader but they're. They're hurt at linebacker and I think the secondary is vulnerable. I think the Bills bounce back here. Really important game for them. If they want home field they have the game up on the Chiefs lost last week. Chiefs don't have an easy schedule down the stretch. Bills, Bills need this one. I mean so do the lines. I think it'll be good game but just give me the points.
- [97:45]
LeVar Arrington
Okay, now to a team Sunday Night Football they've won four straight games now. Two of them again been against Kyler and the Cardinals. One of them was the jets and another was was an impressive win against the 49ers who had some injuries. This team at home. I just looked at the weather. It's not. It's supposed to rain every day except Sunday, but it's cold, windy. The place is rocking. To me they basically got to win two of their last four. It almost feels like they would be a lock to be in the playoffs. They still have the Bears but these next two games against and they finish with the Rams are against the packers and the Vikings. So if they win one of these next two games, I feel pretty good about Seattle's chances to be in the playoffs. This is a big spot for Jordan Love on the road. It's just crazy environment. Every time I want to trust them. Like it gets back to the first half it's like well, they start slow and then they start humming. Now granted, like you said, that Detroit defense, it's like, what are we talking about last. This is a little different animal against a defensive coordinator that's gotten guys back and he's done a really good job. I kind of like Seattle underdog at home. Now. I get it, this isn't the lob Seattle Seahawks, but that's, that's to me seems like moneyline value there. Like, I mean this Packer team, I've liked them, but the more and more like the season has gone on, like, yeah, maybe they're kind of in the same spot as last year and maybe they're a year away from kind of getting closer to where they want to go. And this is more of a year like they might win a playoff game, they might be one and done, but they're not really a true super bowl contender. Not that Seattle is either, but what the hell's the difference? I'm taking the home team in a cold weather environment against, you know, a young quarterback that, you know, just gives you bad halves. He can, he can turn it on for a half and look like Aaron Rodgers, but you just can't afford to win some of these games when you're fucking scoring no points.
- [99:41]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, I don't mind the Seahawks here. I want to see if Kenneth Walker plays. I think he'll be important in this game.
- [99:46]
LeVar Arrington
Now I, I get they were playing, you know, the Cardinals, but he's.
- [99:49]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, but it'll help to have Walker too. I, you know, the, the Seahawks are an interesting team because I think if you look at Geno's splits, he's so much better indoors in not and cushy environments. We go back to that Atlanta game. I mean all season the offense is better suited to being indoor. Go to the Lions game. I mean they were scoring at will and they had offensive line injuries in that game. They were Metcalf fumble away from that game being like 35 all. So their offense is built for like to be an indoor team and because they can't, they don't run the ball consistently. They have offensive line injuries like Gino can move around more. They have, they have good speed at, you know, shifty receivers. You have Metcalf can go deep. So their offense is not built to like play where they play at this time of the year. So maybe they won't be hurt like by going into the playoffs and having to go on the road and playing, you know, if they had to go play Minnesota or Detroit. Something worth noting because I Think their defense can play anywhere and but their offense doesn't look as good at home. So that, that's. I don't mind the under here too. I think it's like high leverage game. The Seattle's offensive line still has some issues. Their offense doesn't look good at home. But the defenses I still think undervalued their last two games have gone over. But if you go back to the jets game, there was a pick six, a kick return for a touchdown, two muffed kickoffs that led to points. And then last week Kyler throws two picks that lead to two short field touchdowns. This Seahawks defense is legit and it's McDonald. We've always talked about him. He's made the necessary adjustments schematically to fit his team. But not only that, he's changed. He's fundamentally changed his team and some of it just health. Defensive line was so banged up middle part of the year and the secondary, I mean you have multiple starters but now. So now not only are they healthy, but he changed some things. He got Rayshon Jenkins out of the lineup who was terrible. Put Kobe Bryant in at free safety since week seven. Been a huge plus. That big, big upgrade of free safety also allows you to do more with your now healthy corners. Linebackers. I mean he was constantly shifting, cutting, trading, getting the guys that he needed in there. Linebacker pretty important position in how he wants to disguise things more so than other schemes. He got his guys in there that he felt were the best fit coming out of the buy. It looks like he was right now they're. They're defending the run well. Their secondary is healthy. You got upgraded to free safety. You have more flexibility with your corners who are now healthy. So that whole unit is trending up and I think they'll be ready here. Another thing to watch is the packers could get. Let me see if there's an update that would help. The under is the packers secondary is their corners in particular are not really good when they're. When there's no GY Alexander. But if he goes a second straight day of full participation that helps him a lot. That allows. That'll allow them to do more things for an aggressive defense and he'll obviously be important for Metcalf. So you could get Alexander here which kind of upgrades the Green Bay defense. So I don't mind taking the home dog, but I also kind of like the under as well.
- [103:04]
LeVar Arrington
I mean there's a decent chance we get this game in a month. Right as the 3 6.
- [103:10]
Justin Jefferson
Yep. Yeah.
- [103:11]
LeVar Arrington
Because the packers are I mean, I think are pretty entrenched. I feel pretty confident they're going to be the six. Right. They're not going to be the seven. And now it's pretty tough after that Lions loss to be the. To be the five. Right. Given that whoever, however, shakes out between Minnesota and Detroit ends up the 1 or 2 and the 5. And then the Eagles end up the 1 or 2. And Seattle, I guess the Rams were recording this before Thursday night. Technically still win the division, but. So, yeah, you could.
- [103:42]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. I mean, the packers are. If they. They're like 95. They're 98 to get in right now. Vikings are 90.
- [103:49]
LeVar Arrington
They're a playoff team. I mean, they're in.
- [103:50]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah.
- [103:51]
LeVar Arrington
And they're Vikings, Lions and Green Bay Area.
- [103:54]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah. Vikings probably gonna be your five, packers your six. And yeah, Seattle is probably going to be your three. I mean, the Bucks have a really easy schedule, so maybe they could end up jumping them, but maybe the commanders could jump the Packers. I guess.
- [104:15]
LeVar Arrington
But I think commanders are leaking oil. We'll have to see how they look this weekend because I. I could see them start losing some games.
- [104:22]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, I mean that. But you got to remember, the commanders, they have an easy game this week, but then they have Eagles. Well, then they also. They have the Falcons at home, then the Cowboys. So they could finish with 10, 10 wins pretty easily, even though I do think they're leaking oil. So. But I. I think the packers will eventually end up with the six. So, yeah, this is most likely to be a rematch. But if the Seahawks win this game. If the Seahawks lose this game.
- [104:52]
LeVar Arrington
Yeah.
- [104:52]
Justin Jefferson
Then again, division's back on the winner today. This will be out the day after. But Whoever won the 40, the 49ers will be right back in it. They beat the Rams. That. The Rams win it. They're right there. So, yeah, this is a huge game for the Seahawks and their chances at the division because they host the Vikings next, and then they close and then they get the. They're at the Bears on a short week, which it's not an easy spot. And then they close at the Rams. So huge swing game for the Seahawks.
- [105:29]
LeVar Arrington
Before I get you out of here. Any other games? Any other games you like? You like a little Raider money line upset against the Atlanta Falcons at home, or is that a little too bold?
- [105:38]
Justin Jefferson
I got to see who's playing quarterback. They're saying O'Connell might play. I don't know what's going on with that game. I mean, the Falcon, I don't think Cousins is fully healthy. Right now. So yeah, why not? I did play the Chargers minus two and a half. Like you can find like a minus 120 out there. I know Herbert has an ankle. I think we'll be all right. McConkey's playing. Bucks run as much zone as any team in the league. Herbert number one quarterback against zone is the number one offense against zone. And the Bucks also don't have any safeties and Antoine Winfield and all pro safeties out. So I like that matchup. Bucks also have been getting lucky. I mean they're probably gonna win that division, but if you look their five wins this year, their last five wins, Panthers and OT should have lost Raiders, Giants with DeVito, Saints with Rattler and Eagles without two months ago. Eagles without all their receivers and their offensive lineman. That's their last five wins. Opponents are also 60 on field goals. They've had 21 fumbles for lost only five of them. So. And they've been really good in the red zone. Like a little too good in Chargers red zone D is elite. And so I think there's a good matchup for the Chargers to bounce back, especially with McConkey in the lineup. And then the ugliest one I'm at. The Panthers is a favorite minus two and a half minus 1 20. It's going up to 3i. This is a horrible spot for the Cowboys. Season basically ended. You're more offensive line injuries you lost over shown short week going on the road to play Carolina. They could come out super flat here. Carolina still cares. They're playing hard. Bryce Young looks so much better. And what the only thing that the Cowboys do well is they get pressure. Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in terms of pass direction. And Bryce Young under pressure has been really good. They easily could have beat the Eagles, Chiefs and Bucks three straight weeks. You know, a drop pass, a bad review.
- [107:31]
LeVar Arrington
Panthers are hot, bro. They're hot. They're the hottest losing team in the league right now.
- [107:35]
Justin Jefferson
And Cooper Rush has been metrically he's been almost if you just look at EPA plus complete percentage over expectation almost as bad as Drew Lock since he took over. And over that time Bryce Young statistically been like average which is so much better than he's been. And then like big time throw rate. He's top five. He's hanging in there. He's smiling, looks like he's having fun. He's actually like yelling at the guys like it's a whole different person. Can Alice like fixed his footwork and he just got confidence. He needed a couple games playing well to just psychologically be okay in the pocket. And their defense is a bit underrated. It's still really bad. But they got healthier. Like, you get one and back, you get a bunch. They were so beat up early in the season. So I like the Panthers as a favorite, as crazy as that sounds. But I still think they're undervalued. They've covered five straight.
- [108:21]
LeVar Arrington
I like that. Stucky. Well, let's watch the Panthers stay hot. Let's enjoy Army, Navy and we got a. We got a good Sunday coming up, so we only got so many of these left, so we got a really.
- [108:33]
Justin Jefferson
NFL weekends after this.
- [108:35]
LeVar Arrington
I don't even want. I don't even want to hear that. I don't even want it. That includes playoffs.
- [108:38]
Justin Jefferson
Yeah, I mean, this is week 15. So after this, 16, 17, 18, wild card, divisional, conference, Super Bowl. So while you're listening to this, we still have eight left. So I don't want to shortchange anyone. It goes quick. So enjoy. Enjoy every bet and every game that you have left.
- [108:56]
LeVar Arrington
Talk to you soon, Suggy.
- [108:57]
Justin Jefferson
All right, brother. The Volume.
- [109:06]
LeVar Arrington
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LeVar Arrington
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