← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: NFL's Playoff Weekend & College Football Playoff's National Championship Game
01:09:55
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- [00:00]
Stuckey
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human the volume.
- [00:19]
John Middlecoff
What is going on, everybody? John Middlecoft three and out podcast. How are we doing? Presented by my friends at Zone Pouches. Today we will be talking to Stuckey. We recorded on Wednesday. If you're listening to this, either headed to the hospital, in the hospital, maybe have a kid by now. Maybe I don't yet. We'll see if we get pushed back for emergencies. But we are. I don't mean our emergency. I'm just saying if C section. If there are other emergency bursts, we get pushed back. So it's a fluid situation. But we'll have Stuckey on today, talk about the games. We'll look back a little bit and talk about at the end, the college football national championship. Also up on Netflix, Stuckey's Netflix debut. And. And yeah, so make sure you check that out. We have all of our content up there, obviously. If you're listening Audio, Spotify, Apple, subscribe to the podcast. If you listen on Collins. I appreciate you doing that. Tomorrow we recorded with Josh Pate, the. He's. It looks like ESPN is about to build a show around the guy. Fellow bald brother. That. That will be tomorrow. And yeah, that's the game plan for the week. So let's just. You guys know him, he's here every week. Let's. Let's dive into my main man, Stuckey. Okay? We've been doing this every week for years. For those of you watching that are new to this, this is my good friend Stuckey. He is a fellow degenerate gambler, works for the Action Network. You can find him all over the place. Big bets on campus, guys dialed in on college football and basketball and knows the National Football League from a gambling standpoint as well as anyone I've ever been associated with. So we do this all throughout the football season. And he's. He just had a baby as well. So he's got a new baby. He's got basketball season in full swing. He's got the NFL playoffs. Probably slept. My guess would be over under 8 hours this entire week. And going right into a massive, massive weekend for the National Football League. Stucky, how are you holding up?
- [02:25]
Stuckey
Yeah, under on that. And, yeah, everything's going well. Had a rough. I had a rough wild card weekend. I loved, loved my card. And I mean, Jag's first half was one of my favorite bets of the year. And Jack's first half, Moneyline Adam, I think + 102 closed like - 145. They missed a field goal Parker Washington gets hurt. Trevor Lawrence's shin goes down. That was rough. The packers were one of my favorite bets. That was absolute pain. It's only the second time in playoff history a team has scored 25 or more points in the fourth quarter and or overtime in a 15 plus point comeback. The other was the Falcons against the Patriots in the super bowl. Or I should say the Patriots against the Falcons super bowl when they were down 28 3. That was one of my biggest losses ever. I had the Falcons plus four and a half. One of the most painful losses and one of the biggest financially. So that was like reliving that so.
- [03:32]
John Middlecoff
That. How cocky were you at 283 that.
- [03:34]
Stuckey
Day? Yeah, I thought it was over. And I mean the sequence of events that had to happen, I mean there's, there was, that's. This is what Bears games have been like all season. But you had McManus missing kicks left and right. The fourth and eight. That was the game. Yeah, I mean, you have to give Caleb credit for that throw on fourth and eight. But if they don't call the false start, the. The ball snaps over his head, the game's over. If they don't convert that fourth and eight, the packers of the ball at midfield up 11 with six to go. But yeah, I thought it was over. And then when they scored again, then I got a little nervous and when I scored again to go up 11, I thought it was over. But then after that fourth and eight, I was like, you never know this Bears team, I've seen this story, and they get the two point conversion. The packers miss more kicks. I mean, if you think about it, if they just. The margins are so thin in the NFL playoffs from a betting perspective and just in how these games are decided. And I mean the Jags, they have an all pro kicker, made 20 kicks in a row. They miss a kick at the end of the first half, which is like a shocking miss, even though it was from like 52. Yeah, that ends up being the margin. The packers, if they make any of those kicks, if McManus makes any of those kicks at the extra point or any of the field goals, they miss a kick at the end of the first half too. Then at the end when they're at the 20 yard line, I mean McManus would probably miss it again. But you could kick a field goal to either tie it or win it. And you don't need a touchdown there. So the margins are very thin. And then I had the Chargers, which I was just dead wrong on. I mean, Herbert.
- [05:13]
John Middlecoff
Was. He was.
- [05:14]
Stuckey
Bad. Horrifying. I mean, you could blame the offensive line, you could blame the game plan. I don't care. Like in the first half, he had pockets to throw. He had clean pockets and he couldn't make throws. He looked gun shy. He looked like a rookie. I mean, that was the worst I've ever seen him play. And credit to the Patriots, apparently they were. The charters offense was confused, but Herbert missed throws, missed wide open guys and just looked gun shy. So, yeah, didn't get much right on the weekend. Did have some Eagles 49ers under which I had a sweat. But yeah, a couple bad breaks, but that, that'll.
- [05:53]
John Middlecoff
Happen. What were you saying? Couple situations, the Jags game when they only have the one timeout and there's a minute left. Would you have knelt the ball, made him burn it and then, you know, get it down or. I guess they were out of timeouts. So you kneel the ball, you get it to like what, 30 second range to be safe, to give yourself a little time. I thought, and I get it, you're on the road. But I was like, man, this, this team is a great kicker. The kickoff rule now shortens the field. I'm all for. I get it. You can't get tricky, but you have the best player you know, on the planet who's dominating this game. The tush push had been working, or the Josh push or whatever you want to call it. That, that was a pretty big risk by McDermott that ended up paying off because they get the pick, whatever, a couple plays later. But I was like, damn, damn. That's. I. That was.
- [06:45]
Stuckey
Crazy. I thought 1000%. I tweeted it out immediately. I said, you have to need. You have to quick knee and then.
- [06:54]
John Middlecoff
Score. What would you ran it down to like.
- [06:56]
Stuckey
25. Yeah, 25 seconds. Because you also had a timeout.
- [07:00]
John Middlecoff
Yeah. So they had a.
- [07:02]
Stuckey
Couple. Yeah. So like time wasn't an issue for you. But just think about it from a probability standpoint. Like if the. The chances of you scoring a. A touchdown on second, third and fourth and goal, you can get three chances with Josh Allen and the torch. I mean, is 99, maybe 98. Like you could have a false start right there could be a fumble and snap. That could happen on first down too. But that those chances are so much higher than the chances of you scoring right away and then kicking off. There's a chance. The Jag starts at the 35. He. Cam Little was kicking, was making 70 yarders in pregame warm ups. He's 2 of 2 from 67 plus in his career. The rest of the NFL, in NFL history, all of the kickers are O of 22 from 67 plus. You, you might only need one first down to get a fuel range. The, that probability is so much higher. So they, they completely botched on. They got away with it because Lawrence threw a pick, but he also missed the touch. There was a wide open guy on that play that could have ran for a touchdown. I thought McDermott completely botched that. You have to go down there. And the other, there's two other reasons why, you know, that was the bad move that was the incorrect move from a game theory perspective. One, the Jags money line or the Bill's live money line in the live market, when they scored on first down, their, their odds went down to win the game. So like the, the market would say, okay, now the probability of them winning the game is lower than if they would have waited. And number two, the Jags let them score. So the Jags knew that they needed to let the Bills score there to give them the best chance to tie the game and to force overtime. So yeah, it was the wrong move. McDermott almost pulled a, you know, a Chiefs 13 second repeat from a couple years ago when they messed up the kickoff and then they let Kelsey catch a pass up the seam to get in a field goal range. Now no one will ever talk about it again because Lawrence threw a pick, but I thought it was clearly the wrong move. But they got away with it. Allen was incredible. And I mean, yeah, you just, you just have to go down there. There's no way that they're stopping Allen on three downs from the.
- [09:38]
John Middlecoff
One. Yeah, I mean I totally with you. Obviously the Eagle game, you know, to lose to that 49er team wallow from practice squads. The Eric Hendricks who was kind of out of the league, you know, trending toward his career being over making game winning plays against you, you know the time. You know, Kyle is not a trick play guy. You know, I can count on one hand the trick plays he's running the last five years. But they've all come in big spots. One in the super bowl, one in that famous Debo threw a pass to Jennings against The Rams. Week 18. The Niners had to win to get in the division. They were getting blown out in the first half. I was actually at that game. Yeah, so he's not Kyle's, you know, not some, you know, Ben Johnson with the trick play. So when he busts him out, you know, he clearly he's on tilt knowing his season was, you know, on the line. Obviously in a playoff game it is, but the, the underdog mentality. We'll get into that game a little bit later against Seattle I think, you know, they might need like a fake pun or a fake field goal. They should be using some of that type stuff this week potentially. But man, that was, you know, looking back, it's one of those. I didn't have much faith just because in part of it was recency bias. It wasn't even just the Seattle game. It was the week before against Chicago when they were just scoring. It will like this defense is just out of bodies. But I mean what, you know, we talk a lot about coaching performances, but Kyle and Salah coming out of that, I mean that's a pretty legendary performance by those two.
- [11:06]
Stuckey
Guys. Yeah. Unbelievable. They deserve all the credit. That's the beautiful thing about. And it makes it tough to bet on. You know, obviously lines are really efficient this time of the year, but this is, you know, I'll spend all week diving into tendencies and NFL teams change on a week to week basis. But especially in the playoffs you can flip, right? And that's when you, you, you can flip everything. These highest leverage games. But I thought Salah did a tremendous job with his fifth, sixth and seventh string linebackers and you know, part, part of what? You know, like solid. Deserves a ton of credit for what he's working with and what he's done all year. But part of that was the story of the Eagles all year. Yeah, I mean this is a team they went 20, they want to stretch after they went on a 96 yard touchdown drive, they went 27 plays for 24 yards over that. This happened all year no matter who they played. And it is just how many hitches can you run? They couldn't run the ball on anybody. But I thought Shanahan, because that Eagles defense, which was healthy too was one of the most elite units in the NFL all year. Additionally, you had wind going up against that defense, going up against a Fangio defense that in four head to head meetings Shanahan never cleared 15 points. Averaged 10.25 points per game. Clearly had Shannon's number. So he made, I just thought he called a hell of a game, used the trick play at the right time. I didn't think they were going to be able to hit that many pass explosives. I mean DeMarcus Robinson looked like, you know, Jerry Rice out there. So I, I thought Shanahan was unbelievable to lose Kittle to, to go down that drive to. To take the lead was awesome. But it also was a fitting end and a microcosm of the entire season for the Eagles. I Although I didn't expect the defense to get torched like that, but the offense, it was a overdue that that's how they would. That they would end their season because Petula and that offense, it was just a disaster from. From day.
- [13:29]
John Middlecoff
One. Petula and you've been rattling off stats like statistically he is dramatically worse than the Ben Johnson offense, which was obviously struggled. But the quarterback has to get some. I mean he. Oh yeah, he doesn't. He doesn't want to run anymore. That would have been a game Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen would have ran for 85 to 100 yards. He.
- [13:48]
Stuckey
Could. And the 12 high shells they.
- [13:51]
John Middlecoff
Wanted one play that got called back. He could have had that play all game long. Quarterback sweeps quarterback. But he doesn't want to do it clearly because it's not like the staff's like, let's just not run Jalen. They're not that dumb. It's the quarterback. I told this to Colin on Sunday night. I think he views himself like Russell did like once they won the super. I'm a pocket quarterback. I'm not running anymore. And Russell was even less of a runner than J. Like Jalen is a natural runner the open field. But he just doesn't want to do it because you should have called like minimum like five quarterback powers. A couple of them probably would have hit for like 20.
- [14:24]
Stuckey
Yards. Yeah, it was the. That was the defense that you do it against. And yeah, there's a. Patua doesn't. He gets a. He deserves a ton of blame, but certainly not all of it. Herz should get a lot. The offensive line also is way worse. I mean how many times again, no matter who they played is Barkley. It's not like Barkley lost a step. You can see him once he hit once he has a hole, still has the same explosives. How many times all year does they hand the ball up to Barkley and immediately he's led the.
- [14:55]
John Middlecoff
Lead. Led the lead. Touches behind the backfield, behind the line of.
- [14:58]
Stuckey
Scrimmage. And like the 49ers run defense, the team that doesn't get pressure. They were in the backfield all day. So the offensive line deserves some blame as well. And then I think Sirianni and how. I don't know his. The offense was almost like it kind of took on like his arrogance. Like they would just. They felt like they were just like too cool. For school sometimes. And they would put a drive together and then they would just be laxative. There was no. Never any energy. But when he went after. He went after AJ Brown for not getting off the sidelines. They get in each other's face and then AG Brown doesn't have a catch the rest of the. Like he. A.J. brown is. It seems like he's that type of guy that is just like, all right, I'm checking out of.
- [15:48]
John Middlecoff
Here. Like Kobe, I ain't.
- [15:49]
Stuckey
Shooting. Yeah, you have to know, like, how to handle the personalities of your team. I would be shocked if he's back in Philly if Sirianni is.
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John Middlecoff
Stucky. But A.J. brown is a lock to be traded in the next. Probably after the combine, it'll be announced he's been.
- [16:04]
Stuckey
Traded. It has to be. But like, yeah, what a waste you have. They have talent like you have. A.J. brown, Devonte Smith, Saquon Barkley, you know, Dallas Goddard. On paper, you have one of the better offensive lines. And then what a waste for that offense and a talented roster. But credit to the. The 49ers for going on the road and getting a win that, you know, not a lot of people saw, including myself, saw.
- [16:31]
John Middlecoff
Happening. Do you consider yourself, you know, when people said the Sharps are on so and so do you consider yourself a.
- [16:36]
Stuckey
Sharp? I would. I mean, yeah, I would say so. And it's. It's all right. Like, there's gonna be when. One of the things that I will say is that when like last week, the books, they are. They said the sharp sides were like the Jags, Pittsburgh Packers. Yeah, the Steelers. I wasn't on the Steelers, but I was on the Jags, the Packers, the Eagles at an early number. And so I, I tend to be on similar sides, but think number one, there's two. Two key points here. The numbers matter. So like when Sports Whistle come out and say, like our sharper accounts and these are accounts that are. That are respected and that they'll move on and, you know, you could come in just a guy off the street or Floyd Mayweather and bet even way bigger than some of these respective accounts and they're not going to move off it. But these sharp accounts that win, they'll. They'll move the line or respect it based on where some of these accounts are betting. But the number one, the numbers matter. So like there was. There was sharp money on the Eagles, but that was, you know, it opened three and a half. It got up to six there all. There also was some sharp money that came in on the 49ers at 6. Right. So numbers matter. There's different entry points and then there's also going to be conflicting. You know, some sharp groups might like, you know, like the Jags, but there was also some sharp money that came under the Bills when they got to plus two, plus two and a half. So all of that is just speaking in general, but it was a rough weekend for a lot of sharp bettors and including myself. But you know, that's what happens in small, small sample size. You really just try to get the best of the number, which I did so I can't complain too much. And then you're. You're betting on football games with small margins at an oblong ball. Sometimes you're going to get bounces, sometimes you're not. But yeah, that's I would assume this week for the sharp sides. I don't even know. I would assume like New England at under. It opened under three. I'm assuming there was probably some sharp early.
- [19:00]
John Middlecoff
Money.
- [19:02]
Stuckey
Rams. Yeah, I think the Rams are probably going to be have more sharp money there. And then Saturday I don't. I could see. I think there's going to be sharp money on both Buffalo and Denver and San Fran Seattle. I think there was early sharp money on Seattle like just real early. And then I could see some charm money on like San Fran whenever it gets above 7 and then I think inevitably it's going to settle at seven. But I don't. You might have. I think you'll have some sharp money on the Denver Buffalo under which I like. And yeah, other than that there are, there obviously was sharp money on the Rams Bears under because that to move it from it was. That got up to 51 and a half and it came down to 48 and a half. That's a pretty substantial move. But these things can change later in the week as limits get even higher. So we'll see. But last week it was, it was rough for, for sharp adders that. That'll. That'll have one weekend. A lot of.
- [20:11]
John Middlecoff
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And I think it's fair to say when you get a number like this that hovers between, you know, Bills. Right now, Hard Rock Bet as of we're recording this on Wednesday, you know, are minus one on the road against Denver. The numbers shifted around a little bit but like you said to me offline that the money line really reflects that. This game's a coin flip game. You know, when you look at Denver, even if I give him a pass, let's just say for sake of argument, we remove the Charger game. They're rolling out Trey Lance, who's probably not a 2D player in the NFL. The previous week they played the Raiders on that whatever was it Christmas or Christmas Eve division game? Weird thing, just let's say remove that. The previous time when they played Jacksonville, which was a massive game at the time, they kind of got worked. Not kind of, they did. And their defense, you know, like when you watch the Eagles or you watch Seattle, there's a physicality to their defense. I think when you watch Denver, there's more speed oriented and I, I Just think that, like the question on Denver, obviously, Bo Nicks has been the big kind of elephant in the room, but if their defense isn't as dominant, like, they don't look like Houston or something right now, that you go, how good is this team? The quarterback's never proven anything, and he's been very iffy most of the season. And clearly, like, he was trying in those last couple games. It didn't look great. The Bills, we talked about it last week. I just took Josh, I just bet on Josh and it worked. And I mean, the difference in that game, I thought Trevor was all over the place. Liam Cohen probably should have ran the ball more. They were having much success. I mean, part of the deal against Buffalo. And you saw this last year with, with your squad, Baltimore, like, lean on them physically. They're, they're not. Yeah. What, what are you guys doing? So, I, I, I think this is a tough spot. You know, Denver just, they had a lot of question marks. Now, maybe just we look back in a year, they, they answer them over the next couple weeks, and we don't think about them like that. But I, I'm taking the Bills. I, I'm just going to hammer a money line in this game. And just like I said last week, if they beat this Jags team, I'm just going to hammer them till they lose. And that's my mindset here. The other thing is, I was at the dog park the other day, and we started talking to this lady, and she comes up, she's like, oh, is your wife the one that's pregnant? I'm like, yeah. And we like, the guy was wearing a Broncos sweatshirt. I'm like, oh, you from Colorado? He's like, yeah, we've lived there for 40 years, right? We bought a house here forever. We came over here during the winter. Big Bronco fans. I'm like, oh, it's probably cold, snowy week. He's like, actually, I just text my son. It's 60 degrees, and I look, today, the sun's going to be out and it's like in the 50s. So this is not some frigid, cold Denver Bronco Mile High game. It's not quite Jacksonville where people are in the pool, but at least based on what I saw, could be potentially a nice afternoon, you know, day game. So that, to me, benefits Josh Allen, does it not? So I, I'm taking the Bills in this.
- [25:14]
Stuckey
Game. Yeah, I, so I, I agree with you. The, the Broncos defense is, it's not as elite as Seattle and Houston. It's Very good. And they might get Dre Greenlaw.
- [25:32]
John Middlecoff
Back which helps their.
- [25:34]
Stuckey
Physicality. Yeah. Which they need. I mean last year. So these teams met last year in the playoffs and The Bills won 317 in the first round. The. The Broncos linebacker and core linebacker core was decimated by injury that in game injuries and it wasn't as good as what it would be if. Especially if Greenlaw's back. And you know they added Huanga who provides some more physicality as well in the run game. Now you're gonna have Lock who is vulnerable at safety because their start. Their starting safety is out with an injury. Brandon Jones. But yeah this so and what happened in that game is the Bills just ran all over them and they just leaned on Denver. I don't think they'll be able to do that as success successfully here. But I do think that they'll.
- [26:23]
John Middlecoff
Have success running the ball because they didn't really get Jacksonville. Right. Cook was kind of a non factor in that.
- [26:29]
Stuckey
Game. Yeah. Jacksonville Rundy has been elite all year. They had a top 5 run D. Now on paper the Broncos have a top 5 run D. But when they stepped up and faced some teams that could run the ball like some of the top tier running teams and they didn't face a lot of they. They weren't as dominant. So I could. I think the Bills have to lean on the ground game here. I'm so curious to see what they do from. Because here I. So for starters I did play the under. I don't blame you for taking. I mean if you just need to win a game historically like on the money line as a dog or as a favorite of under a field goal. Josh Allen is, you know the just to win the game is the most profitable quarterback in NFL history and he just might be the Mahomes of this year. Right. Like who. Who cares? I have Josh Allen like right. But last year it was you know, New Year's prior was just who cares live Patrick Mahomes. It's like it didn't matter. You just bet the. Bet the Chiefs to win the game. And that's basically what happened last week. Right. Like the Jags were they. They had the game but Josh Allen just despite all the injuries, he just made plays when he had to at the end and that could happen.
- [27:40]
John Middlecoff
Here. Now you agree too if they. If they win this game. So they've. I mean the Jags obviously were the hottest team coming in the playoffs potentially in the league. Then you go on the road to the number one seed, beat them and More than likely, I guess, Houston, we'll get into that game. Who beat the shit out of the Bills early this season, might be a tough matchup for him. So actually it's. It might not be as easy to just be like they're just going to win the super bowl. The Houston thing, I guess we'll get to that in a minute. Never mind. That's. Houston's a tough matchup for the.
- [28:08]
Stuckey
Bills. Yeah, I mean, going to, Going to New England wouldn't. Wouldn't be easy. I mean, both those games were very close during the year as far like Alan will have to earn it, like, because I know, I know that there's no Mahomes, no Lamar, no Barrow in it. But going on the road to Jacksonville, it's a shame for Jack that those two teams had to play each other because both those teams could have went to the super bowl. And the Jags got screwed. They win the division, they have to play Buffalo, Texans finish in second, get to play the.
- [28:32]
John Middlecoff
Steelers. But the Texans pass jags would rather play the Steelers. They probably would have won by the same.
- [28:39]
Stuckey
Margin. Absolutely. The Jags, you know, when the, the Bills played the Falcons and lost the Texans, those pass rushes, they, they were able to get to Allen and give him some issues. So maybe this Broncos pass rush can do the same because it isn't a great matchup for the Bills offense. They're not. Allen's numbers this year are significantly worse against man coverage. Now. Last week he got to face a zone heavy defense, and the reason for that is it's not Josh Allen. It's that he doesn't have receivers that can get any separation. So it's hard for me to see their receivers getting. And their receiving core is decimated now. Like Curtis Samuel just got designated to come back off ir. They're probably going to need him. They only had three as yesterday, they only had three healthy receivers on the roster. One of them is a guy you've been healthy scratching. You know, Shakir has been good, but McMillan's pretty good in the slot. And then you have certain. I'm curious to see what they do with him. I mean, do you use him on like Kincaid that sometimes? Because there's just. They're going to be able to man up, load the box, bring the blitz. And it's going to be hard for Allen to have enough time because his receivers just aren't going to get any separation because the. The Broncos are going to play a ton of men. They blitz and it's just going to be tough so the Bills are going to lean on the ground game here. It's going to keep the clock moving. I'm curious to see if they like completely switch it up if they go three, if they go like two, three tight end sets and, and try to attack the linebackers and the safeties of Denver. So I'm super curious to see how they, what they do schematically. You got to remember Josh Allen's also dealing with some injuries on a short week. We'll see how banged up he is. He's going to take hits against Denver, but the clock's going to be moving. I think they're going to lean on the ground game, especially early on. And then on the other side of the ball they could get Ed Oliver back as well. He was just designated.
- [30:37]
John Middlecoff
Off. I saw.
- [30:38]
Stuckey
That. That would be big for their defensive line. But McDermott usually does a good job in game planning, scheming, disguising looks. In these big high leverage games, they're going to play a ton of too high. They take away the explosive play. That's kind of what Bo Nicks does. It's. But Bo Nix will, you know, he's very inconsistent on a down to down basis, but then he'll hit the splash play every once in a while. The Bills don't give that up. Play a ton of too high against too high. Knicks doesn't really take chances. He's the lowest yards per attempt in the league. He's going to take those short passes. I also think Peyton is going to rely on his defense, which means he's going to heavy dose of run here. He knows that's where the Bills are the weakest. He's usually smart about that. So I think both teams are going to be running a ton. Relying on field position, clock will be.
- [31:25]
John Middlecoff
Running. This is a great game. This is a great.
- [31:27]
Stuckey
Game. Yeah, it'll be good. So I bet the under the bill. I think the Bill's only goal is Knicks is gonna have to use his legs here. The Bills struggle with can struggle with mobile quarterbacks. I think the Bill's only goal is, you know, try to run the ball, keep the game close until the fourth quarter and then you have Josh Allen, they have Bo Nix and you just want to be in a position where Josh Allen needs to go win the game and more times than not he's going to go do that. But I think this will be lower scoring field position battle, especially early.
- [32:07]
John Middlecoff
On. One thing I was told and 49er players have been saying, I mean it goes back to the Atlanta Falcons. That what one of Kyle's strengths is during the week when he does these game plans. He's so good at dissecting the defense. When he tells you, get to this spot, it'll be wide open. Run this play at this time, it'll work. And he's kind of a genius like that because he, he's really. He has a great mind on the defensive side of the ball. So when you do something like Fangio, one thing I think they felt after the game is like, we kind of knew where they were going to line up. Obviously they have good players, but we weren't getting tricked by stuff. And the thing that happened in that Seattle game a couple weeks ago, you know, from just some, some sources, is, and I think this is what makes Mike so special. He's been doing it, you know, his whole career, is they thought they would get something and guys would be in completely different spots once the ball was snapped and his deciphering and disguising was all over the place. But I'm not even talking about the D line, whooping the O line. I'm just talking about in coverage. Guys are all over the map when the 49ers have game planned against something else. So, I mean, Purdy's going back there thinking X and he's getting Y. And it really threw them off. We're against Fangio. They went back seeing X, and they were getting X. He just. They just had to execute it. So, you know, I think they can prepare. You know, obviously, they got screwed a little bit by the timing, right? Ideally, you'd play Sunday. They've kind of got a couple short weeks, but, like, they don't really have, like, the prep's already done, right. They just played them Sunday. The Seattle didn't play an extra game, so really they can double down on, like, what could we have done a little different and, like, build off what we thought coming into that game and make adjustments. Kind of a unique spot for the 49ers from a game plan perspective in a shitty week, because they just probably had an incredible game plan playing for the number one seed that didn't work, and then they can kind of pivot off that where Seattle, you know, it's like you just, you know, you're going to get some different swings now from them that you just saw. So I, I, I, I think the 49ers have a chance in this game. And to me, the key is someone asked me, it's like, well, the two guys ran for 170 yards, and there Was a point in that Eagle game when it was 13 to 7. Eagles, they had the ball and the time of possession was like 18 to 6. I was like, the Niners are in.
- [34:32]
Stuckey
Trouble. Yeah. The Eagles just went on a 9 minute, 18 play.
- [34:35]
John Middlecoff
Touchdown. If that takes place in Seattle, they will lose the time possession thing again. So you just have to get for some more punts and not just give them drives, even if they're not scoring points. That just lasts seven, eight minutes because then that puts so much pressure. If you go three and out, it feels like a disastrous quarter. So I, I do think, Kyle, this is a game again. It's like, can you run a fake field goal or fake punt? Like, you're gonna have to do one of those. You probably can't run the wide receiver pass again. But I, I do think the 49ers are a pretty live dog in this spot. And let's face it, you know, there is a ton of pressure on Sam in this game to just like, he played really well last week or whenever they won 13 to 3. I know they didn't score many points, but he was 20, 26. He was efficient. He was just completely under control. If you plays again like that and their defense plays, they'll win. But like, we've seen Sam in a couple of these high leverage spots, and it didn't go as well. Now, did the 49ers have the defense to really, you know, kind of put him on tilt? I don't know. But to me, it starts with, can you just neutralize the run game? Because if you remove the first run of the game, where Saquon went, I think for like 30 yards, he really had 25 carries for like 70 yards. Like, you'll live with that all day. It. It was just the over and over in that Saturday night game of just the 5, 7, 5. It's like, it just kills you. So to me, stop the run. It's like, okay, Sam, throw for 250, 300.
- [35:55]
Stuckey
Yards. I'm. I can't wait for this game. Now, my favorite part about the playoffs, just from a football fan perspective, is the coaching matchups. And look at the NFC. I mean, you have Ben Johnson versus McVeigh and you have Kyle versus.
- [36:11]
John Middlecoff
McDonald's. And if we had a coaching draft, I mean, would you say these four guys would go in the top.
- [36:17]
Stuckey
Six? Yes. Yeah, for sure. After. If you.
- [36:21]
John Middlecoff
Just. If you just say, hey, age doesn't matter, let's say Andy goes 1. Would these guys. Would these be the next four picks in some Order. Yeah, I get Mike's a defensive guy, but I think he still ain't falling.
- [36:32]
Stuckey
Far. Yeah. Let me look at.
- [36:36]
John Middlecoff
The. I think Kevin O' Connell would go high, would go in the top 10. D' Amico would be a sleeper defensive guy that would go high, high level.
- [36:48]
Stuckey
Guy. No, I would take off all four of them over anyone else. I think at the moment, although I, I do think very now he's still new to the job, but I do think very, very highly of Liam Cohen. So he, But I mean, it's only one.
- [37:13]
John Middlecoff
Year. He's, he'd go high. Sirianni go top 20, you.
- [37:17]
Stuckey
Think? Or, I don't know. I mean, like, what does, what does, like, I, I, I struggle with how valuable is Sirianni? Like, what does he do right. Like he won a Super bowl and you have to give him credit for that. But like, he had, right. Two really good coordinators. He has one of the most talented rosters. The organization is run very well. You have a great gm. So much talent on that roster. What does he really do? Supposed to be an offensive guy. So you don't have the coordinator this year and the offense falls apart. Like if you remove him from that team last year, do they still win the Super Bowl? Maybe. I do think he's pretty sharp with like some in game stuff and understanding like game and time and clock management, but I wouldn't have him near the top, so. But yeah, these coaching matchups are awesome. So I, I kind of wanted to. When these two teams met in week 18, when I was talking about this game, I told you I like the under. It was at open at like 50. I was like, that's way too high for these teams. And it came down to like 47 and a half, I think. But now this totals at like 44 and a half. I'm thinking I, I kind of want to bet the over. I think it's come down a bit too much. But this will all come down to the battle between Shanahan and McDonald. And what I mean by that is that if McDonald dominates, because McDonald came out, he said, well, he has some other looks that he has in his back pocket that he didn't show in the Week 18 game. So they're, you're going to get some other looks here. So can Shanahan anticipate, based on what they saw in week 18, that they weren't expecting? What new does McDonald have? What does Shanahan have to kind of counteract that? And can the 49ers hit some explosive plays and move the ball through the air. Right. You're going to have Trent Williams this time around, but you're not going to have Kittle. You could have Ricky Pearsall, which would be massive. Do you think he's going to.
- [39:21]
John Middlecoff
Play? I would not be.
- [39:23]
Stuckey
Confident. Yeah, that's what I figured. But he was. They. These two. Remember these two teams played in week one, and both the times they played, the scores are super low scoring. But there's been a bunch of scoring opportunities where no one scored. Like.
- [39:39]
John Middlecoff
I. You know, Kittle missed the majority of that game. Right. He pulled.
- [39:42]
Stuckey
Hamster. Kittle got hurt and Purdy threw for what? 360, I.
- [39:46]
John Middlecoff
Think. And good weather game. What's the. What's the weather this week.
- [39:51]
Stuckey
There? I think it's gonna be fine. Okay, so Pearsall had. But Pearsall had a big day. I think he had four catches for 110 in that game. But if the 49ers. So what you can cross off here is the. The 49ers will not be able to run the ball. That's just gonna be a fact. Number one, Seattle's run defense is historically good. They're the best run defense in the NFL by a wide margin. You can't run on them. No one can run on them. It's almost impossible now. You're gonna have to still do it some, but they're not. They're not gonna have success running ball. Especially now. You don't have Kittle, who's one of your keys to. To your run game, but you'll have Williams this time around. Purdy should have a bit more time. Can he avoid the mistakes? Right. I think he has seven. I think he's made a ton of mistakes whenever he's faced McDonald defense. Go back to that Ravens 49ers game that cost him four picks. Yeah. So can he avoid the mistakes? Like we get teeny throw pick, but that was tipped and then bounced off McCaffrey's arms. But can he move the ball through the air against this complex changing? That's going to come down to what Shanahan has dialed up, where he has identified the potential weaknesses are in that coverage. Like there was definitely some certain areas of the field that he identified against that Fangio defense that they took advantage of on the left side. And it's a beautiful game plan. And I agree with you. They're going to have to get aggressive and then try some trick plays. And so if they're able to do that and, you know, score and put touchdowns on the board, then that puts pressure on Sam Darnold to have to throw the ball, and then he could make mistakes. The problem is the 49ers don't get a ton of pressure. So I'm also curious to see how does Salah play this? The. The Seahawks should. Should have their left tackle back. They could get Arroyo back at tight end, who kind of helps stretch defenses a bunch. But the Seattle offense hasn't been great for, you know, a month and a half. Their offense has been solved a bit, but this. Does Salah say, I'm just gonna play? They played too high on 67 of their snapskin Seagulls played a ton of quarters coverage. They were just trying to take away the explosive plays. They know their defense doesn't have a ton of talent, so it's like, prevent the explosive plays. We'll. We're just going to stop you in the red zone, hope you make a mistake, and then, you know, we just don't want to give up those big plays. Does he take that same approach or does he bring his safeties more down and try to stop that run game? Because Seattle was doing whatever it wanted on the ground. That so. But it all comes down to what that Kyle vs McDonald chess match. Because if. If Kyle's able to move the ball and is able, you know, to identify some of those weaknesses, then this is going to be. I think this game will go over and it could be like 27. I could see being 27, 20. I could see the 49ers on the shot to pull off the upset. But if Channings, if they're not able to move the ball and Purdy's under pressure, and I know they're not gonna be able to run the ball. What McDonald will do is park it and he's gonna tell. He's. He knows. I don't. I. My defense is dominating this game. I'm not letting Darnold lose it. And then they're just gonna run it and then they're gonna. You're gonna have these long drives and then the over is gonna have no chance. And they're just gonna say, look, we're.
- [43:19]
John Middlecoff
Not. And he's the most conservative coach, doesn't go for it on fourth downs, kicks, field.
- [43:22]
Stuckey
Goals. So this is all that's going to dictate the side. If the 49ers have a chance. That's that chess match. How's it going to play out? I don't.
- [43:29]
John Middlecoff
Know. I'm taking. I'm taking the Niners seven points. I Mean, that's. I mean, this game was what, two and a half, couple weeks ago? I think obviously we witnessed that game. It was like, Jesus, now Trent didn't play. Pleasant's getting, you know, spun like a dreidel. And Purdy, by the end of the game, it felt like, God, is he gonna die in this game? So, I mean, that's. It's part of it. The 49ers, when their O line does play bad, it does feel like they can get f. Physically overwhelmed. And this is one of the units that, God, they've. They've been good. So to me, it's like, can you just neutralize that front a little bit? They always pretty is going to have to run around no matter who they play. But like, if it's just. If it looks like Aaron Rodgers against the Texans. Yeah, they're going to get killed. Right. And the score might not even reflect, quote, unquote killed. It could be like 17 to 7, final score, but it'll just be like a bludgeoning, you.
- [44:17]
Stuckey
Know? Yeah. And you'll feel like they have no chance to win it. But yeah, Shanahan just has to draw. He has to find a way like he did last week against a team that doesn't give up explosive plays like Seattle. Find ways. It would be a big boost if pure soccer play and looked healthy. But with Robinson, Jennings, I'm sure there's going to be a ton of designed stuff for McCaffrey out of the backfield. And then Purdy just has to avoid forcing throws. Now, it's a fine balance. You want to. You got to hit some explosives. You're not going to run the ball, but the Seattle defense will take it away and they'll score. So yeah, early in this game will tell you because if the 49ers are struggling, this game is going to die because the Seahawks are just going to run it totally and then punt it and rely on their day and field.
- [45:05]
John Middlecoff
Goals. And no Shahid too. Shahid too is a little bit of a curveball. Right. As a return.
- [45:10]
Stuckey
Man.
- [45:10]
John Middlecoff
Yeah. Last week Brian Robinson, like, barely was making it to the 25. Like they were kicking it to him. Sky Moore had won. It did not go well. I mean, part of it was like they were starting like old school long NFL drives. They didn't have any, like, oh, got to the 40, you know, it was like that. That they're gonna need a little bit more juice on, especially if Jason. Let's just say Myers kicks like three field goals. Like you're gonna get some Kickoff return opportunities. The Robinson thing, I don't know what was going on, but he was going nowhere. He was running the back of guys like, bro, this is. This is a game that's going to be decided by a couple yards here. This is not going to work out. And if Shahid gives them some explosive plays and all of a sudden they get a drive from the 50, it's like that. You're talking about that these games all come down to small margins. That something I noticed big time. Like this is not ideal.
- [45:58]
Stuckey
Here. Yeah. The jets somehow had a historically good special teams this year. It's the only thing they did well at folk is a kicker. Really good return units, coverage units. The Seahawks were right behind them. If you look at a lot of the overall metrics, their special teams are very, very good. I think the 49ers were around league average, but that could be some hidden edge for Seattle. But Kyle has to be aggressive here. I can't wait for the chess match. Like whenever you doubt like.
- [46:27]
John Middlecoff
Shannon.
- [46:28]
Stuckey
Yeah. Yeah. So I, I don't blame you for taking the points.
- [46:33]
John Middlecoff
Here. 9 and 4 in the playoffs and a lot of those. This isn't like the Belichick, you know, Brady Patriots. They were underdogs in a lot of those wins, right? Yeah. So it's. And pretty not like, you know, coin flip games. These were like over a field goal, underdogs, you know, at Dallas, at Green Bay, at Philly. I mean, those were games that most Niner fans like, yeah, we're probably not going to win. You know, it's like that's. And that's what makes a great coach, when people are like, yeah, I'm probably not going to win. And then you get to the point where it's like you just can't doubt the guy because his teams, I don't know mentally what. The preparation going into the game, there's like a belief and then you just got to make the game work weird. So it's just a great game. It really is. It's. To me, it's the best game of the.
- [47:15]
Stuckey
Weekend. Yeah, I can't. I can't wait for it. The other thing is Darnold struggles more against too high, which you would assume solo. He ran a ton of. That's usually what he wants to do, take away the explosives. But then you leave yourself vulnerable to the run game so that you obviously don't just run nothing but two. By the classic, it was 66%, but I'm curious to see that percentage. But if the 49ers able to score. You make Darnold have to throw and be more aggressive and then in those zones he's more likely to make a mistake. And that's where you can really win this game. So you'll know early on in this game how it's going to.
- [47:48]
John Middlecoff
Go. I'm not overthinking this. I'm taking the Texans. Obviously, CJ Makes you a little nervous. I was looking at all the games they played and I was like, if you remove the Chargers, who's the best defense that the Patriots have played? I mean they got the Browns in New.
- [48:04]
Stuckey
England. Yeah. Browns aren't the same away from.
- [48:06]
John Middlecoff
Home. No. So it's like not really anybody. And that game was weird last week. If Herbert hadn't played, I mean that's as bad as it gets. It was nine to three going in the fourth quarter and your quarterback, $50 million guy that a lot of people like myself defend is just playing a game like he's fucking deshawn Kaiser or something. You're like, what is going on here? And it was still 9 to 3. Vrabel has done an incredible job. The future is bright. They're gonna have A.J. brown on the team next year. Probably they'll be fine and they're going to be a legit super bowl contender in years. I just don't know if they are right now. And Drake, Drake was really good in the second half. And obviously the home field advantage New England is the fans show they're up, they're used to winning, play's going to be rocking. But that Houston defense, I mean if the Neil Hunter is going to look like Lawrence Taylor and you also have Will Anderson and the team speed they have in the secondary. Petrie probably one of the more fun players in the league. Throwback to a guy like we grew up on. There are a bunch of guys like that in the league that would just could do it all and be knocked the out of you. Who Fungus kind of like that too. But Petrie feels like a little bit more dynamic in the open field. This again though. I mean if their quarterback against the Patriots has four fumbles and a half, loses a couple and throws a pick that is just hits a guy in a numbers. Yeah, they'll lose. And to me the D' Amico sitting them down like C.J. you're the number two pick in the draft. You come from Ohio State, you were a star player. We need you to play like trendy for a Brad Johnson buddy. Like let's, let's calm it down a Little bit. It's on the offensive coordinator d' Amico just. We don't need you to play hero ball because our defense is poised to just carry us. And if you're going to run the ball like that, it's like C.J. no turnovers. He. I feel like he plays like a guy trying to prove he's a star. It's like bro, they don't need this right now. Purdy got $50 million a year by just. Just do what the court coach tells you to do. Also it wasn't his fault. When you run a fleet, if I say hey a team runs a flea flicker, don't you usually think about that like later in the game after you establish the run? Isn't that part of the.
- [50:03]
Stuckey
Play?
- [50:04]
John Middlecoff
Yes. You don't run in the first.
- [50:05]
Stuckey
Quarter. No. That was bizarre. I have no idea on this game to be honest. I. Part of it is I. I struggle to what to make of the past because of their schedule. They had the easiest schedule of any team over the past 30 years. Now they finally. So they played no defenses with a pulse until the Chargers, the first top 10 defense they played. Texans are on another level and their offense struggle like May fumbled it a couple times, threw a pick. It wasn't the same smooth operation as you would expect as when they stepped up in class. The same could be said of their defense which hasn't they played like the only offense with a poll like the quarterbacks they faced over the course of the season. It was rookies, backups, guys who were benched and like 11 of their of their wins. They faced Allen twice. They split right and they got torched in the second game. They didn't really face any other good quarterbacks. Then they faced Herbert and Herbert is a top 10 quarterback. Many have them top five and they shut him down. Now was that the Chargers offensive line and Herbert. But that could look the same here. The Texans offensive line isn't great, their running game isn't great and you know Stroud could struggle in the pocket. You could have a similar game plan here. You know, blitz heavy. Stroud struggles against the blitz and this Texans offense could look broken as it does at times. You gotta remember, I mean remember the Steelers defense has been pretty bad all year. But I just don't know enough about was because I also saw Herbert missing throws and missing guys that were.
- [51:42]
John Middlecoff
Open. Guys were open. He's over. He's air mailing them by like. Like.
- [51:45]
Stuckey
10Ft. Wasn't even close. So even that game is hard for me to really Measure what this PAT is now they do a good job with disguising coverages and changing things. Now Christian Gonzalez, they don't have depth at corner if he's out with concussion. And then you also have the Nico Collins thing. I think it would hurt the Pats more if Gonzalez is out. I think there's a more higher chance that Collins is out. Short week it looked bad, but when he was out earlier this year they developed some depth at wide receiver. But this basically just comes down to how dominant can the Texans defense be? Like they have the defense that can carry them to a Super Bowl. Imagine if we get Houston, Seattle, super bowl, what that total would be 18. So. But they have the defense. They can carry them to the Super Bowl. How many plays can they make? I mean they had two defensive touchdowns last week. Margins are thin. This totals 41. This line's trending to three and a half at that point. I think you, you have to look at Houston. I just don't have a great feel on this PAX team just because of the lack of data points against strong competition. And it just might be a struggle for this Houston offense because the Pats can employ that same game plan as last week. And you know, having Nico Collins will. Not having Nico Collins would, would definitely hurt their, their playmaking ability. But this will just come down to how good I can't wait to watch. Another great chess is Drake May. You know, number one in EPA per drop back versus this Houston pass defense, which is historically good. Number one EPA per drop back allowed how much pressure? Because the pressure could just be overwhelming on that end as well. You saw the Chargers. The Chargers are not a, an elite defense in terms of getting pressure. And they were in the backfield all day. I think they had five or six stacks O looked like an all Pro. And the rookie tackle Will Campbell looked.
- [53:46]
John Middlecoff
Rough. You have two K was shoving him back a.
- [53:48]
Stuckey
Lot. You know, this is another step up in class the Texans pass rush. So how May handles that will be interesting to see. But yeah, if you want to take the points here with, you know, that defense in which should be a lower scoring affair, I will, I won't talk you off of it. I just don't have a strong.
- [54:06]
John Middlecoff
Feel. My logic on the Bears is simple. They could be down 20 in the second half and you look up an hour later in the games in overtime. So I'm just taking them in the points. I mean it just, it feels like the football gods are just hanging out in their locker room this year. I mean they scored 25 points in the fourth quarter. They're down 21 to three and a half. And then they come back and win the game outright. I mean it's just that stadium is just a lover of atmospheres. Looks incredible on television. I mean that place is rocking. It just feels a little more potent than like what we saw with the commanders. I think they're a little bit better, but defensively, same type thing. They just not very good. They can't cover his soul, which you would think in theory is not good. Against Puka Nakua, who's probably the best receiver in the league so far this year. And Devonte's back. The tight ends can all catch. I mean the running backs are good, but Stafford, man just has these weird stretches. It's gonna be cold. I. I'm just taking the Bears and the points. Don't feel great about it. But how can you go against them right now with the way that everything keeps shaking out every single.
- [55:11]
Stuckey
Game? It's. It's insane. I what I played here. This total came down a bit. It's hard for me to see either one of these defenses getting stops. I played some Rams over 26 and a half points. So over 26 and a half their team total. This is a team versus if you remove the knot, if you remove the top five defenses from their schedule. So Seattle, Houston and Philly. I mean and they scored 26 versus Philly and were missed two field goals. They averaged 32 and a half points per game. They got the 27 and 11 of the 14 and a couple of them they just didn't have to. And one of them against Seattle, they put up 38 and they led.
- [55:55]
John Middlecoff
The league in scoring.
- [55:55]
Stuckey
Anyway. Right. So I think they get the 27 plus. I mean this is a Bears defense that's you know, 28th PBOA 26 success rate 30th in EPA. If you remove turnovers, their turnover luck is extreme. It's not going to last forever. They're 23rd in points allowed despite leading the lead league and turnover margin. Additionally, you know you have. There is some concern with the Stafford finger and in the AT in the cold, the Adams hamstring in the cold. You're going to see a lot of stats of. Stafford has struggled historically in the cold like his win loss. But a lot of those games were when he was with a bad Lions team. Remember last year he almost beat the super bowl champion in Philly in the snow and he looked great. I.
- [56:40]
John Middlecoff
Don'T. It's hard for me. He had the Ravens game a couple years ago. Remember when he was unreal? I mean it's like one of the best games I've ever seen. Definitely the last like five years. It's as good of a game as you're gonna see. I know he didn't end it on a pick, but he was fantastic in that.
- [56:52]
Stuckey
Game. Yeah, they should have won that game. So I, I think he'll be fine. This Bears defense, they don't get pressure. They're now missing TJ Edwards as well at linebacker. Their depth at linebacker is really shaky. They really just can't get any stops. The rundy is really, really bad. One of my favorite props, I like some Quorum props, but quorum over 11 and a half longest rush he's, I mean he's had I think 23 rushes of 10 plus yards, one carry of at least 12 yards in 10 of the 17 games that he's played. If you remove the opener, we only had one carry. And that's despite not getting an increased workload until like week seven. But Kevin Dotson I think is going to be back. That's huge. He's one of the best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. They missed him down the stretch. That'll help their run game. And the Bears give up tons of run explosives. One of the worst defenses in the league at giving up big runs. So yeah, I think that they'll. I like that Quorum. I think the Bears allowed a run of 12 plus in 15 of the 18 games to non quarterbacks. Multiple backs in the same game got a run of 12 plus yards in seven of their 18 games. And like the teams that didn't were like the Browns. Even though Shador Sanders had a 20 yard run, I mean Geno Smith had a 20 yard run against them. So I think Corum can have a big day here. I like his longest rush over 11 and a half. I like the Rams to score, but you're right, I could the Bears match them. Is there some Bears magic? And you have these two offensive gurus going up against vulnerable defenses. I think it's gonna be a ton of explosive plays which is good for an over. So I don't, I think this, the total has come down a bit too much now. I get it's going to be like freezing cold. Both teams could rely on the run a bit more, but not enough. People are talking about the. The Rams defense has dropped off significantly over the first 12 weeks of the year. They were number one in EPA per play. But I kept saying like I think this defense is a bit overrated because I don't. We. We were saying this so we don't really believe in their secondary, which is the weak point. They were number one in EPA for play, but you got to remember they played the Bucks and the Bucks offense was bad from week seven. Baker got hurt. Right. And that game was just a joke. They played the Ravens when it was Cooper Rush. They played Stroud when like two of his offensive. In week one, when two of his offensive lineman got ruled out right before the game, they had to shuffle everyone around. They played Cam Warden, his second start, Spencer Rattler. So like the first, you know, half of the season, they benefited from a lot of opposing quarterback and offensive line situations. And then over the final seven games, over the last seven games, including last week in the wild card, they're 20th in EPA per play and they faced the Panthers twice and the Cardinals twice. So it's not like they were facing nothing but these elite offensive teams, they're giving up a ton of explosive plays. The secondary is vulnerable. The Bears can hit those. So, yeah, I think the Rams can do whatever they want here. Like, they can run the ball. They could go heavy personnel. The Bears struggle in that aspect as well. But Caleb Williams keeps improving this Ben Johnson offense, I think he's going to be aggressive as well in like fourth downs. I think that they can hit explosives, keep the pressure on Los Angeles. So yeah, don't, don't doubt the Bears, everyone. I always tweet, every Bears game is the same. But I did play some Rams team total over some and then some quorum props. Should be a good one though, again between two awesome offensive.
- [60:39]
John Middlecoff
Minds. Well, I won't talk to you until after the national championship game. It feels like there are like two plays. Indiana blows out basically everybody except Ohio State. So it's like just take them and the points, eight and a half and they win by 15, 20 points. Or it's like take Miami Moneyline, like, because if, if the game's close, like, Miami would have a chance to win. Right? But it's like, do I trust Mario this team with a bunch of penalties? I guess the play is just take Indiana in this spot, though. It's like, is it just going to turn out to be they played in the playoffs and blew everyone out after playing in that close game against Ohio.
- [61:33]
Stuckey
State? Yeah, this is a tough game. I mean, I make it. I make the spread now and I'm, I'm just, I've been aggressively up upgrading Indiana. I make the spread 10 on a neutral But I'm struggling to, to determine what do I make the home field advantage here. So like I don't think it's a full home field advantage. So I don't know. I'm using like a point and a half. So like I make it like eight and a half which is where it is. But I don't know how like what the home field should be here. Like they are playing at home. But I imagine like this is Indiana's all in year. They have the, the largest alumni base of any school in the country. So this crowd is going to be, I don't know, split. So Miami's technically the road team, which is funny. So I don't really know what to make home field. But this, this just could be a scenario. Every once in a while in college football you'll have a team where the market never catches up to 2019, LSU. Every week you were talking about the Sharps are. You would have Sharps. The Sharps even bet against LSU in the championship. Against Clemson there was a lot, a lot of short money against LSU again and all this team would do was cover, cover, cover. I lost a lot of money betting.
- [62:48]
John Middlecoff
Against. I don't even remember. They blew Clemson out in that.
- [62:51]
Stuckey
Game. Blew him out. Yeah, they were blowing every, they blew everybody out. Even though their defense was bad. That's what a lot of people were seeing. But their, their offense was just so good it didn't.
- [62:59]
John Middlecoff
Matter. Turns out they had Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and Joe Burrow. It's like a pretty good.
- [63:03]
Stuckey
Combo. Pretty decent. So. But yeah, the market just could never catch up to how good they were and that just might be the case for Indiana. That's my, my fear for. I don't think Miami's going to be able to like they might be to run the ball a little bit. I played the under here. I played out some under 48 and a half. Under 48. I did both. These teams are very slow. I do have a lot of respect for the Miami defense. I do think that they'll be able to get some pressure. That that right side of the Indiana offensive line is a bit vulnerable. The Miami defense is real and then the Indiana defense, they're so buttoned up it's very hard to consistently run against them. Carson Beck has not been great in the, the playoff so far. He doesn't do much. It's really on the defense. But I think this will be more of a rock fight type of game. Lower scoring. There's no reason, there's no need for Indiana to Run it up at the end, like just show off. Which sometimes comes into play in their games. But I think. But I think this will be more of a defensive game, field position game, the tempest. The pace will be very slow. Miami's going to play how Miami does. They're going to want to just run, run, control the clock, play field position, rely on that defense. But I think Indiana will get back into just too many known passing downs and then their pressure packages. Miami is a really good offensive line. That's a great battle. Watch with their pressure and blitz packages are incredible. And Beck is not good under pressure. So I think it's going to be a struggle for the Miami offense. So I did play the under. I think I'm spot on with the number. I couldn't talk to anyone. I. I've heard good cases for Miami and good cases for Indiana. It just comes down to how historically dominant this Indiana team is. But my biggest fear is what you brought up. Indiana is so buttoned up that they're. They're just execution monsters. Yeah. And I mean you on third down. Their third down offense is historically good. 55. That's a range you rarely see. Like, I don't know, five or six teams over the past 10 years. They're giveaway. They never turn the ball over. They never get penalized. And this is a Miami team that's undisciplined. Right outside the top 100 in penalties. Beckett times can put the ball in harm's way. So.
- [65:28]
John Middlecoff
That. Well, their whole thing is like violent or crazy. We're.
- [65:32]
Stuckey
Tough.
- [65:33]
John Middlecoff
We're. Signetti's like, we're. We're like the Navy Seals were dialed. We execute. We don't around. He doesn't, he doesn't use violent like Mario's uses violence every time he talks. Signetti is much more like execution like Nick. Right. And then the violence, just part of that, the way they play. But they, they. The coaches talk dramatically different. Like Mario looks like he wants to get in a fistfight where Signetti looks like he wants to get into a chess.
- [65:57]
Stuckey
Match. Yep. So yeah, it's very well put. I. So that might end up being the.
- [66:02]
John Middlecoff
Difference. But in fairness, Mario does have a violent team too. So it's like they can physically hang. Like they. They're not going to be shoved around. They. They're like Ohio State. Right. Where physically they're not going to be intimidated by and get shoved around by Indiana like Bama and Oregon.
- [66:14]
Stuckey
Did. Yeah. I think this game's going to play out more like Ohio. Like it's going to play out similar to Ohio State, Indiana then Miami.
- [66:21]
John Middlecoff
Would have a chance if they don't have like 10 penalties.
- [66:23]
Stuckey
Right? Yes. Or Beck doesn't turn it over. Like they have to play clean to win this game which you can't have, you know, 108 penalty yards and you can't turn the ball over. So I think they're going to be cautious as long as like this game is close play field position. I think both defenses will give each opposing offense some issues. Now Indiana seems they seemingly never drop a contested catch. I mean Sarat is incredible. This Becker kid has really come on as it looks fantastic which has added another layer to their offense. But yeah I played some under I played some Mendoza under rushing yards like 18 and a half. The he'll try to scramble some but I mean the Miami defense has allowed they played 14 games against FPS opponents. Opposing quarterbacks have ran it 127 times for 14 yards. So that obviously includes sacks. But they've given up 14 total rushing hours and they played you know Watson and Drones at Vatech they played Byron Brown who had a thousand yards rushing for usf. They played the Syracuse guys who could run. They played Castellanos at Florida State, they played Chambliss. I mean Chambers had 7 yards rushing. They played a ton of Marcel Reed. So they played a ton of mobile quarterbacks. They give up 14 yards. That includes a ton of sacks. Now Mendoza had but he averaged like 80 average like 18 and a half per game which is where this line is set. But he was only sacked like 1 plus 1.4 times per game. I think that could go up to like three or four and you could get some major negative sack yardage. I mean he went up against Wisconsin he had six rushes for negative 24 yards. He was sacked five times. Against Ohio State he was sacked three times. Ended with negative three rushing yards. So yeah I played some under rushing yards there. Surat anytime touchdown if you're looking for like a parlor anytime parley beats but that's around even money. He the guy scores every, every week. I think he scored like 10 weeks in a row. Hit that back shoulder. It's like a cheat code but yeah I'm struggling what to do with home field so But I think I'm close to the line. I won't bet Miami. They're like I wouldn't even bet Miami if it's 10. I would need more than 10 because I I've just seen, I've seen Indiana and they just feel to me like a team that you don't want to get in front of so even if Miami win I won't have any regret if Miami covers or wins that I didn't fade Indiana. So yeah, if you made me bet it I'd bet Indiana but I do like the under I like I.
- [69:17]
John Middlecoff
Think I'm gonna take Indiana. Okay, Stucky, I got my wife screaming at me. I gotta help get ready for this this endeavor we're about to take off on so I'll be joining you soon into the fatherhood category and enjoy the rest of the week and enjoy the games and I will talk to you.
- [69:34]
Stuckey
Soon. Yeah. Good luck. Wish you all good health and enjoy the NFL playoffs from the hospital speed. It feels like like. Like a camp. Yeah. So enjoy it But I hope everything goes well and talk to you next week.
- [69:51]
John Middlecoff
Brother. I appreciate it. See.
- [69:52]
Stuckey
You. The.
- [69:56]
John Middlecoff
Volume. This is an iHeart.
- [70:00]
Stuckey
Podcast. Guaranteed.