Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: 3 & Out – NFL & CFB Best Bets: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Bucs, Alabama-Georgia
Date: September 27, 2025
Host: (E) John Middlekauff (with guest Stucky)

Episode Overview

This episode is an in-depth betting and analysis preview of a packed weekend in both college football and the NFL. John Middlekauff and Stucky break down the week's marquee games—highlighting injury news, matchups, and betting strategy. They analyze the high-stakes Ravens-Chiefs game, discuss the power structure in both college and pro football, offer best bets, and share sharp insights on everything from offensive line play to statistical anomalies.

Tone: Casual, sharp, a bit irreverent, with the hosts riffing naturally and packing in stats, context, and personal stories.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

NFL: Marquee Matchups & Analysis

Ravens at Chiefs: Injuries and Implications

• Baltimore and KC both are reeling from injuries (Matabuke, Van Noy for Ravens; Worthy for KC).
• Without Matabuki, Ravens D allows 5.8 yards/rush, with him 3.8. “The defense isn’t the same right now. The offense isn’t the same right now.” — Stucky (05:04)
• Mahomes has career lows in YPA (6.3) and completion % (59%). “His yards per attempt, 6.3. Completion percentage, 59%. I mean, those are career lows.” — Stucky (08:10)
• Both agree: too many injury question marks to bet confidently.

Packers at Cowboys: Can Green Bay Bounce Back?

• Packers called the best bet on the board—expect them to roll if any semblance of offense returns.
• “I’d be stunned if the Packers don’t win this game by double digits.” — John (46:56)
• Stucky: “The Cowboys offense now… lost Lamb… couple of your starting OL out. Their offense just isn’t at the same level. Not with a healthy offensive line. Of course not without Lamb… That was what they had to fall back on this year. …how do they get stops?” (47:55)
• Both like the over as well ("Cowboys should put up a couple touchdowns at minimum.”)

Vikings vs. Steelers (International Game)

• Steelers offense is broken—A. Rodgers “looks old for a couple years now… now his play matches.” (42:39)
• “If this defense is flying around, Aaron… just kind of slings it, always screaming for a flag, looks old.” (42:35)
• Vikings offense getting healthier; Packers/Vikings both strong leans under a field goal.

Falcons/Commanders, Saints/Bills, Bengals/Broncos – Betting Trends

• Underdogs off a 30-point loss: 60% ATS hit rate. (53:00)
• Lean to the ugly sides: “These are professionals. You’re going to get their best effort the next week.” — Stucky (53:06)
• All three underdogs (Falcons, Saints, Bengals) are suggested as live.

Eagles at Buccaneers

• Tampa’s run D is elite (#1), Eagles can't run; needs to open up passing more.
• “A.J. Brown said, ‘Just throw the ball… get the ball to our playmakers in space. What are—he basically said, what the fuck have we been doing?’” — John (60:42)
• Bucs’ O-line decimated unless Tristan Wirfs returns. Stucky highlights how huge this is for protecting Mayfield.
• Tampa has three wins by six total points (60:07); question if luck will run out.
• Watch for the "tush push" – Bucs may activate 400-lb Desmond Watson as a counter (65:10). “That’s basically why he got signed. …That’s his role. If he gets a stop on the tush push…”

Giants at Chargers & Rookie QB Angles

• John makes the case for the Giants as a live dog due to pass rush, uncertainty of new QB.
• “First time quarterbacks have had success against the spread… The Chargers don’t know what to expect.” (68:41)

Dolphins-Jets Monday Night:

• Stucky prefers the OVER: "If anything, the Dolphins offense has woken up a bit..." (71:58)
• Both defenses wounded, expect a loose, high-scoring game.

College Football: Main Event Games

Alabama at Georgia

• Both say defenses for both teams have regressed. Georgia now more vulnerable in big games.
• “Neither looked great for various reasons. We'll get a better feel after Saturday.” — Stucky (14:56)
• Best Bet Logic: Take Georgia -2.5, Bama +3.5 if you can get it—otherwise watch to learn.
• “Georgia hasn't lost a home game in regulation since 2016. They lost one game in overtime in 2019. …Haven’t beat Alabama at home since 2003.” — Stucky (13:13)
• The outlier games (like FSU vs. Alabama) may be misleading.

LSU at Ole Miss

• Ole Miss D has taken “an enormous step back” (17:47).
• "My first inclination—even though we just talked about that 51-48 game—is to look under, because I just don't… trust these offenses." — Stucky (17:52)
• Fun side story: Lane Kiffin's daughter is dating LSU linebacker Whit Weeks (19:18).

Penn State vs. Oregon

• “Neither team has played anybody. Penn State hasn’t shown anything. That’s smart—they’re holding stuff back.” — Stucky (27:11)
• “Dante Moore’s never won a big game in his life. Now you’re going to Happy Valley at night, white out. That’s way different.” — Stucky (29:13)
• Pro-Penn State pick, banking on home field, coaching edge, Oregon’s youth.
• “I did play Penn State minus three… more reliable quarterback, better coordinator collection, better running backs…” (30:59)

Washington vs. Ohio State

• Stucky played Washington +7.5: "Washington is super live in this game to pull off an upset... They're better in the trenches." (33:52)
• Home field advantage, elite offensive weapons, and questions about Ohio State’s run game & defense.
• Key for Washington: need top cornerback Davis to play. “If Davis does play, they have the guys to man up on the outside...” (36:49)

Other Quick CFB Hits

• TCU vs. Arizona State is a "huge one in the Big 12" - Keep an eye on Josh Hoover (72:30 onwards).
• Noted how conference realignment reshapes the schedule and interest in marquee games.
• Stats on Kirby Smart running “vanilla” offenses vs. cupcake teams—“0-15 ATS as a favorite of 38-plus” (11:59).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Mahomes’ backward pass: “Collinsworth going on and on about how great…well how about not throwing it backward where there's a chance the other team returns it for a touchdown.” — Stucky (06:21)
• “The guys they replaced [on Ravens D] might have been in Ravens jerseys. They did not look like Ravens players.” — John (08:02)
• On Lane Kiffin's daughter dating an LSU linebacker: "I'm sure Lane spent a couple extra hours trying to draw up some plays to make Weeks look dumb out there." — Stucky (19:33)
• On betting ugly underdogs: “You want to bet the Falcons against the Commanders, the Saints against the Bills, the Bengals against the Broncos? No, no! That’s why these things hit.” — Stucky (53:06)
• “30 penalties in a game—you just can’t keep calling it, even as a ref.” — Stucky (62:31)
• On NFL’s new kickoff: “The field position hasn't gone up too much but there's more variance... The teams that are doing it really well, then there's bigger returns…” — Stucky (50:18)

Notable Betting Angles

• Injury markets—wait for late week reports before betting several games.
• International games: Favorites generally cover, especially with healthy rosters.
• Underdogs off blowouts: Historically, strong ATS value.
• Tush Push Watch: Pay attention to the league’s approach, officiating, and personnel anti-tactics.
• Young, mobile QBs making first starts often surprise against the spread.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:57] Ravens-Chiefs deep dive and AFC playoff picture
• [09:01] College football slate overview
• [10:28] Alabama vs. Georgia strategy/statistics
• [16:21] LSU vs. Ole Miss breakdown and the Kiffin/Weeks subplot
• [25:10] Penn State vs. Oregon: game context, coaching, betting angle
• [33:45] Washington vs. Ohio State — why Washington is live
• [41:43] Steelers-Vikings, Rodgers’ decline, trends
• [46:56] Packers-Cowboys — strongest NFL bet of the week
• [53:00] Historical betting trends on big underdogs
• [59:20] Eagles-Bucs, trenches, injuries, and the “Tush Push Stopper”
• [65:42] Giants-Chargers, rookie QB effect, NYG defensive talent
• [70:50] Dolphins-Jets MNF, winless teams as underdogs
• [72:51] CFB: TCU-Arizona State brief hit, watch Josh Hoover

Conclusion

This episode delivers high-level, sharply reasoned takes on the week’s most compelling football matchups. The hosts’ blend of inside analysis, betting wisdom, statistical depth, and personality shines throughout. All the major injuries, matchup stats, betting angles, and even college football’s soap-opera subplots (like Lane Kiffin’s daughter) are covered—with actionable insights and plenty of strong opinions for sharp bettors and football fans alike.