← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: Ravens-Texans, Lions-Bengals, Texas-Floria, Miami-FSU
01:01:38
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- [00:00]
Ebony
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:38]
A.J. Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in?
- [00:55]
Ty Franklin
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [00:58]
A.J. Jacobs
That's right.
- [00:59]
Ty Franklin
They gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [01:01]
A.J. Jacobs
The puzzler. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:09]
Ty Franklin
I'm Dan, he's Ty.
- [01:11]
Stuckey
Hello.
- [01:11]
Ty Franklin
And we're the solid verbal college football podcast.
- [01:15]
Stuckey
Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.
- [01:23]
Ty Franklin
Join us all season long as we ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport.
- [01:28]
Stuckey
Listen to the solid verbal college football podcasts on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:35]
Ty Franklin
We don't just love college football, Ty. We live it. The Internet is something we make, not just something that happens to us.
- [01:42]
Ebony
I'm Bridget Todd, host of the tech and culture podcast.
- [01:45]
Stuckey
There are no girls on the Internet.
- [01:46]
Ebony
In our new season, I'm talking to.
- [01:48]
Stuckey
People like Anil Dash, an OG entrepreneur and writer who refuses to be cynical about the Internet. I love tech, you know, I've been a nerd my whole life, but it does have to be for something like.
- [01:59]
Ty Franklin
It's not just for its own sake.
- [02:00]
Ebony
It's an inspiring story that focuses on.
- [02:02]
Stuckey
People as the core building blocks of the Internet. Listen to There are no girls on the Internet on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
- [02:08]
Ebony
Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [02:11]
Ty Franklin
The volume.
- [02:24]
Stuckey
What is on everybody? How are we doing? Fired up like last week. I have a some travel plans and schedule this week that has kind of thrown everything off. So we recorded. I'm recording this on Wednesday with Stuckey and going over all the NFL slate from a gambling perspective. Some of the big games in college football, we typically do this on Thursday and then put it out on Friday. We're going a Day early this week. So my guy Stucky from Action Network, he. Yeah, we'll sling some ideas and takes and thoughts on the different games this weekend off each other and kind of try to figure this slate out, which, you know, I would say it's not the greatest slate of games you'll ever see, but that's why God made gambling and that's why we're going to ham hammer it. We got Arch Manning going to Gainesville, playing Florida, who's really good on defense. We got Florida State, Miami, a game I grew up on. Bobby Bowden against the Hurricanes was always fantastic and that's what we will do. So, yeah, you guys know the drill. But before we dive into into Stuckey, I got to tell you about my friends, my partners, the official ticketing app of this podcast, Game Time. Best in the business. You want to go to one of these games? I would love Florida. Texas would be pretty sweet. Probably the last two raw. So if you live in Florida, Florida State, Miami, want to go to one of these games? What did I tell you about baseball? I was watching the opening games of Wild Card round. It's like, it's just intense. That Red Sox, Yankee game feels like an NFL game. Every pitch matters. People are hanging on the edge of their seat, especially in a close game. Late in the game, watching Ohtani hit bomb after bomb. So if you want to go to one of these games, I highly recommend if you can go to a playoff baseball game and do it on me because it's the easiest way to take the guesswork out of buying tickets. With Game Time, Download the Game Time app, create an account, use the code John. That's Johan. For $20 off, your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account, use the code JOHAN. $20 off. Down the Gametime app today. Last minute tickets, lowest prices guaranteed. Okay, back at it again with my main man Stuckey from the Action Network. You can find them big bets on campus. The Action Network podcast. Make sure you go subscribe for all your gambling needs. All lines on this podcast are presented by our friends at Hard Rock Bet. We got. We got a lot going on, Stuck.
- [04:52]
Ty Franklin
You.
- [04:52]
Stuckey
You and I were talking before we pressed record. I saw this clip of Fangio who's just, you know, Fangio. He's super rich. He's now a Super bowl champion. He's probably. I don't watch his press conference every week, but he's. He has no filter and he just kind of. Hey, guys, do we all realize what's going on with these kicking balls? And I don't think most people do because everyone's just like out. These kickers are crazy. You and I started watching football in the 90s. A 45 yard field goal was considered long. If you hit a 50 yarder, it was like the equivalent of like. Yeah, it was like a Hail Mary in, in on offense. It was crazy now and even Fangio said it like, the kid in Dallas is going to hit a 70 yard field goal, like, get ready, it's coming. And everyone else like, we prepare for 60 yard field goals. So it's like 60 is the, the old 50. You know, it's kind of like inflation. And he was talking about the kicking balls. But that, that has changed. I mean, let's face it, we got to factor that into gambling. You know these lines. I, someone hit me up on DMs, like, should a 60 plus yarder now be worth 4? And I would say yeah, in the old world maybe, but now it's not as long for these guys. So I. Is it throwing you out of whack a little bit with these field goals?
- [06:07]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, I mean it's. Tango probably brought that up because McLaughlin, Chase McLaughlin had a 65 yarder at the end of the half outdoors in Tampa and it had room to spare. So yeah, that we're going to see a 71 soon enough. I mean, we saw. What was, what was the.
- [06:28]
Stuckey
You. Did you watch the lane dock when he, when he threw out Seabass for the. Was it 76?
- [06:32]
Ty Franklin
Yes, that was. Yeah. Cam Little hit a 70 yarder this preseason for the Jags doesn't officially count, but he hit it from 70. Yeah. Lane, that was 76 yarder. It was the week he got fired the next week and it like came up like 15 yards short. That was, that was outrageous.
- [06:54]
Stuckey
What was Justin Tucker's in Detroit like.
- [06:57]
Ty Franklin
Five, six years, which is the current record because. Because Cam Little's in the preseason obviously doesn't count because it was preseason, but that's the longest it's ever been hit in any game, preseason or regular season. But the regular season record is 66 Tuckers, which was indoors. But yeah, I mean you saw McLaughlin outdoors hit it from 65 with these last week, which is why Fangio probably brought it up. And yeah, teams are able before they just handed you three balls and then you add an hour to prep them. Now you can, you have, you can you have unlimited time to prep your balls, you know, kind of mold them to how you want them to be the feel. And it's obviously kickers get those balls to how they, you know, and they get the feel for those balls and they practice with them, and it's going to lead to longer field goals. I think the league did it there. Maybe there was something. There was some rumors that some teams were kind of bending the rules a little bit with that, but they want more points and like, that's, that's what they're trying to do with the kickoff rule. It really impacts the end of games. Like, you, you. You have to be really smart as a coach to man, like, coaches botch so many end game scenarios. But it's even more tenuous now because you, if you score with 20 seconds left, like with a new kickoff rule, they could be starting at the 35, 40, 40. And then with these new cables, like, you might only need to get one first down, and then all of a sudden you're in field goal range.
- [08:24]
Stuckey
Well, 20 years ago, the DAC to Ferguson to the kicker, making the. Whatever it was in the Giants game probably wouldn't have been possible. You're starting at the 20. You don't have much time left. You would need, what, 45.
- [08:41]
Ty Franklin
So you would need like a long way 45 yards. And now if you're starting at the 35 and kickers are making them from 60, you know, you only need now 20. Like, you need half the yards pretty much than what you used to. So, yeah, it's. It's definitely changing the game. And we're going to continue to see longer field goals and the accuracy on those longer field goals continue to uptick. Fangio. I watch a ton of pressers every week, college and NFL, on like the fastest you could possibly watch them in the background. And I'm just listening for some nuggets here and there, injury updates, whatever. But Fangio is one of the ones I love listening to because he's an open book. Like, he'll tell you. Yeah, he'll. He'll just share, like, thoughts on scheme and personnel. And I love listening to his press conferences, so wasn't shocked that he was the one that, that brought that up.
- [09:41]
Stuckey
He also is one of the rare guys that talks like it's still the 80s or 90s. He'll just be like, yeah, Jalen Carter's fat, you know? You know, like no other coordinate. I mean, he's like, it's not totally his fault, but yeah, he's. He needs to lose about 10. Like, he just talks like a coach would talk back in the day. And now, you know, all these coaches beat around the bush with any, you know, high Profile player, he gives no shits. And if everyone did it, I mean, all these press conferences would go so viral of just people saying so. It's like the solid thing. What was your take on one? The whole fighting thing? It's like Robert, you're saying you're going to murder this guy. Like, you're not going to touch this guy. Like you're not going to get on a fight on the field. Even though that would have been incredible if it happened. I mean, yeah, he walked it back yesterday saying he truly was trying to give the guy a compliment. Liam Cohen was clearly offended. You know, it felt like Robert was trying to diminish. You know, people in niner land thought like Saul was bitter that he didn't get the job. I don't know. I mean, I just like, I. This is this type story that I. The fight part was kind of entertaining. But the whole sign stealing, Liam Cohen being bitter, it's like you lost the game. Just go, go to your locker room.
- [10:56]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, I mean, Salah was actually like trying to give him a compliment. But like, I get why he was salty because, like he was. Because he mentioned like sign stealing. But he was saying, like, they have a legal system where they're able to gain an edge. You know, they're. Unless these two teams get to the Super Bowl, Jacksonville, San Francisco is not going to turn into any kind of rivalry. So it's not like these teams see each other often. So yeah, it'll. It'll probably die quick. But it was, it was a nice little fun moment at the end of that game. But it's. I didn't take too much from it.
- [11:31]
Stuckey
Okay, let's just fire in some games. We got another international game. Minnesota, who is just in shambles health wise. I mean, their offensive line is a major problem. But I saw this morning, we're recording this on Wednesday. Miles, did he get hurt during the game? He didn't practice on Wednesday. He's got an ankle injury. To me, if he's fully healthy, I mean, that would be a major problem for them. I still like Cleveland. I also saw that Stefanski said, you know, it just shows you I feel bad for Dylan Gabriel. Like, everyone's rooting against him because they want to see Shador. It's like, guys, Dylan Gabriel, I'll keep beating this drum. People act like he came from UC Davis. Like, guys, he was just starting at Oregon. You know, this is, this is not some. And before that he was in Oklahoma. Like, this isn't some scrub. He's not my cup of tea, but I think people are acting like he. How's this guy even starting? Well, Shador is not even the backup. Joe Flacco is going to be the backup, but they'll go with the quarterback change against Minnesota and Brian Flores, which, you know, could be a little difficult on the. On the little guy. But I. That. That offensive line, I know Wentz put up some numbers, but TJ and company was wrecking havoc like that. That version of the Steelers that we saw was like, okay, you know, physically, that's a little bit more of. Of what I thought we were getting when they were up. Whatever the score was like 24, six or whatever early in the second half.
- [12:52]
Ty Franklin
Yeah. Has been. They don't have high Smith. The CSD has been pretty bad this year. That I think had more to do with Minnesota. And the Browns defense has been dominant all year long against the run, against the pass. And they did it against Burrow. They did it against. Even against Detroit last week. They. They held that offense in check. There was a bunch of turnovers. Like they had the lines that have interception return to the five and scored a touchdown. And you know, they held him to under 300 yards, under 3 yards, under 4 yards of carry. They held that. That offense in check.
- [13:24]
Stuckey
Their defense is top notch.
- [13:25]
Ty Franklin
Yeah. So, yeah, I just texted my guy and he says he thinks Garrett will play, which is big. But yeah, that's. I think it's obviously not ideal that from a spot perspective. I did bet the Browns, but it's not ideal that you're making the quarterback change going overseas, playing a Brian Flores defense to a rookie for his first start while that team's already overseas. So I don't know. That's worth like a half point right there. But yeah, I mean, the Vikings are. Their offensive line, you're gonna have no Brian o', Neill, no Donovan Jackson, no Ryan Kelly, I assume. So you're down to like Justin School. Michael Jurgens at center is like a seventh round draft pick out of Wake Forest. Blake Brandle at left guard, like it's bad. And Wentz under pressure is bad. I mean, he's a 30% pressure to sack ratio, 10% turnover worthy play rate. Going up against this Browns front which has dominated everybody, they're number one in run block win rate, number one in pass block win rate. So I think that the Browns defensive line is going to dominate this game. So what can the Browns do? So, yeah, it's not going to be easy, but it looks like Van Ginkel will be out. They also missed Blake Cashman and Rundy. So they're like The Vikings are 26th and Rush EPA 20th and Rush success rate. So you can run on them. So I assume that's just what Stevance is going to do here. It's gonna just lean on Judkins, who has looked good and he's. He's done well against stacked boxes too. And then easy pass, like just easy short passes. And like Flacco has been so bad. He's not mobile either that you can get Gabriel like some bootlegs. He can move a little bit. And for what it's worth, Minnesota and Flores, they're going to blitz a lot and they might even up their blitz rate as they. As Flores has done in the past against rookie quarterbacks. So he's had a ton of success against. But Gabriel against the blitz in college was an absolute monster. He had 63 touchdowns and seven interceptions against the blitz in his college career. That's a nine to one ratio when he wasn't blitzed is 92 touchdowns, 25 picks, about three and a half to one. So he's always been really good against the blitz with just like the quick decision making, quick passes, which is what I think this offense is going to be. They're just going to lean on the run game and I think that their defense can control this game. Like what is Wentz going to be able to do?
- [15:47]
Stuckey
Not much.
- [15:48]
Ty Franklin
Like they're going to play man on the outside and Wentz is not. They're not going to have time to get open. So there's going to be lots of negative plays here. I wouldn't be surprised if like Garrett strips Wentz, causes a couple turnovers. So yeah, it's not the best spot and there's a lot of variance because it's a rookie quarterback. But I think the Browns rely on the run, rely on their D. This total is down to 36. It's. It's like there's no weather that's so low. I mean, I could see this game honestly shout to all the people in London, this is the treat we're giving you. I could see this game ending like 10, seven, honestly. So I had to take the points with a total is low with the Vikings offensive line and Wentz at quarterback against this defense, I'll take the points.
- [16:33]
Stuckey
I do think the Minnesota is in a weird spot here. You know, then they get the Eagles, then they get at the Chargers, then they play the Lions and then, you know, Depending on when JJ's ready to come back, if it's in that stretch, you just. You could find yourself. You're back against the wall a little bit with this completely unproven quarterback with some injuries. Season kind of get away from you in that. Yeah. So it's like, I know the packers are kind of struggling, but the Lions clearly are solid. And let's face it, the Bears are going to be feisty.
- [17:07]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, you can't get too far behind in that division. But I do assume Garrett will play. In the past, he's done this a bunch of. He. He's probably the best defensive player, you know, throwing out him, Parsons. But he just doesn't like to practice sometimes. So he'll just say he has an injury and then he'll like. He like drives up to like the local gas station in Cleveland and just hangs out, like, eat seeds with like people like just instead of practicing. So Garrett has. Has done that in the past. He's just like, I don't feel like practicing this week. So he'll be like, my ankle hurts. I don't know. He could have a. An injury. But when you're, when you're, when you're that.
- [17:46]
Stuckey
When you're that good, I mean, who even cares?
- [17:47]
Ty Franklin
He's.
- [17:48]
Stuckey
He's at like the level of like. Yeah, I don't even complain. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard rock bet. Week 5 kicks off with a California showdown. Little NFC west matchup. The 49ers head to the Rams. This was billed as a great game. The problem is the 49ers have a lot of injuries. And if you go to Hard Rock Bet stat hubs, you can find some interesting stuff like McCaffrey, who they are going to depend on heavily. He's reached the end zone in six straight October games. Devonte Adams. He's recorded 90 plus receiving yards in five straight games against the Niners. Used to dominate him when he played for the packers. The San Francisco 49ers, they've covered the spread in seven consecutive games as an underdog. Now listen, million guys out. Purdy's out. Pierce Hall's out. Juan Jennings out. This number has now gone over. A touchdown. It seems crazy, but Kyle Shanahan historically has done well against Sean McVeigh. He's won some big games down south, especially because the 49ers will have the majority of fans in this building. Kind of like the 49ers who are sitting at right now. Plus seven and a half seems crazy, but if you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Sports bet, there's still time for you to get 150 in bonus bets. And if you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra 150 in bonus bets payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC in all other states. Must be 21 plus physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-88-ADMT-IT in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants to help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- Gambler Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
- [19:52]
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining, and twice a week that is exactly what you're going to get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Looks like something that should not be sold. Oh, my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. Sold that.
- [20:18]
Stuckey
Yes.
- [20:18]
Matt Jones
Might want to go back to the Colts stadium. Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that. Yeah. I thought the shape we had with pretzels was working pretty well.
- [20:25]
Stuckey
It's worked for generations.
- [20:27]
Matt Jones
We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete Carroll is at his age. He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry.
- [20:38]
Ty Franklin
I would say.
- [20:38]
Matt Jones
I would fight him. I would listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [20:53]
Dr. J
But the humility in knowing that life is this classroom that we should never graduate from is what is going to keep you growing. And that's all that matters. World Mental Health Day is around the corner. And on my podcast, just heal with Dr. J, I dive into what it really means to care for your mind, body and spirit. From breaking generational patterns to building emotional capacity, healing is a journey, and wholeness is the destination.
- [21:25]
Ebony
I'm gonna walk away feeling very healed and feeling like, yes, I'm gonna continue.
- [21:31]
Ty Franklin
My healing journey and I. I'm gonna.
- [21:33]
Ebony
Get some keys from you.
- [21:34]
Dr. J
Listen to just heal with Dr. J from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [21:45]
A.J. Jacobs
Hello, puzzlers. Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land?
- [22:02]
Stuckey
Jeopardy.
- [22:02]
A.J. Jacobs
Truthers who say that you are given all the answers believe in.
- [22:07]
Ty Franklin
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [22:10]
A.J. Jacobs
That's right. Are there Jeopardy. Truthers? Are there people who say that it's it was rigged?
- [22:14]
Ty Franklin
Yeah.
- [22:15]
Stuckey
Ever since I was first on, people.
- [22:16]
Ty Franklin
Are like, they give you the answers. Right. And then there's the other ones which are like they gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [22:24]
A.J. Jacobs
Don't miss Jeopardy. Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:46]
Ebony
Welcome to Pretty Private with ebony, the podcast where silence is broken and stories are set free. I'm Ebony, and every Tuesday I'll be sharing all new anonymous stories that would challenge your perceptions and give you new insight on the people around you. On Pretty Private, we'll explore the untold experiences of women of color, color, who faced it all, childhood trauma, addiction, abuse, incarceration, grief, mental health struggles and more. And found the strength to make it to the other side. My dad was shot and killed in his house. Yes, he was a drug dealer. Yes, he was a confidential informant, but he wasn't shot on a street corner. He wasn't shot in the middle of a drug deal. He was shot in his house, unarmed. Pretty Private isn't just a podcast. It's your personal guide for turning storylines into lifelines. Every Tuesday, make sure you listen to Pretty Private from the Black Effect podcast network. Tune in on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite show.
- [23:59]
Stuckey
Denver at Philly. I saw, I've seen it twice now. The montage of the passes in the second half. I mean, it was, it was pretty ugly. Phillies in this weird spot, right? Defending champs, they just keep winning. AJ clearly is not happy. And every week that goes by that dude throwing a little gasoline on the fire. He has another week and this is clearly going to be a tough week given that, you know, Denver secondary is pretty good. I can't imagine Jalen's just all of a sudden against this team is going to throw for 300 yards. So you're going to get. Eventually he's going to crack and just I. If I'M prognosticating is in like a couple weeks, he's going to come out and said everything Brandon Graham said last year was true. I was forced to lie and pretend it wasn't. Like, we're a couple of weeks away from that. Denver, like, I don't know what to really make against Cincinnati. You talk about Minnesota's offensive line issues. That offensive line is fucking atrocious. I get Denver's got a good pass rush, but that was. I mean, even if you put Burrow in that spot, he would have been. I mean, there were a couple of plays where you're like, is Browning going to be able to get up? I mean, he was getting destroyed, but I don't know, man. I mean, how often can you play with an offense that can't pass the ball? The pressure it's putting on the defense. I kind of like Denver in the spot, plus three and a half. I actually don't really hate them just outright in this game.
- [25:15]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, I could see them winning this game now. It is a short week coming across country, but I did play Denver. There's still four and a half, I think, out there. If you shop around, I think maybe a 4.
- [25:27]
Stuckey
How does Jalen play so well in the super bowl and then struggle to pass so much?
- [25:31]
Ty Franklin
It's. It's insane. It's. It's an enigma. I do think the offensive coordinator. It's a huge downgrade, so you can just see it in the play creativity. But the Eagles are a lot worse than they were last year defensively. Like, they're just. They're like a mid. By all of the. The metrics. They're like an average defense so far this year. Jalen Carter might not play. That's pretty big news. Lane Johnson might not play. That would be massive. I mean, Elaine Johnson might be their best offensive player like that, which is crazy to say, but he's like. Might be, you know, because you have Barkley Brown, but Lane Johnson is that dominant. The Eagles are 105, 55 and 1 with Lane Johnson, it's a 67 win percentage. Without them, they're a 15 and 23 under 40. They had nine plays for negative nine yards without him in the second half against the Bucks last week. So. Yeah, but the offensive line in general, like, especially if you take Johnson out the entire interior, like, they're not. I don't think they're fully healthy, but the interior is playing really poorly. Johnson is now hurt. I mean, look at Barkley. Barkley in the second half last year. Second half of games averaged 6, 6.7 yards per carry. This year, he's averaging 2.7. So like, there's no, there's no explosiveness. The run game isn't even there. The passing image in there that a lot of it I think, is the coordinator. The offensive line has dropped off and the defense lost a lot of talent. So this team is getting by on smoke and mirrors. I mean, they beat the Rams. They were down 19. They went on a blocked field goal. The Bucks last week, they had. They had negative nine yards in the second half. Now it includes a negative 30 yard safety. So. But really they had 20 total yards of offense. Like when 23 plays, they don't get a block punt in that game. And they're playing a Bucks team that was decimated by injuries. Get fortunate in that game. Like the Cowboys game could have went either way. The Chiefs. The Chiefs. Kelsey drops a touchdown and turns into an interception at the 1. So, like, this team has been so lucky and now you're going up against this Broncos defense, but with your offensive line issues and like the one thing that they could do is they throw like, they either throw like a slant to Brown when they do throw to him, or like this, this, like get out of jail free, like, comeback route. But you're gonna go against Pat Certain, probably the best cover corner in the league. So, like, good luck doing that. They're easy. He can take that away. So, yeah, I think. And I think. And the Eagles run D this year is a lot worse. I mean, they're 30th in rush success rate. So Denver can lean on its ground game here. This should be a lower scoring game. There's. This should like the dog. It's. It's a dog or nothing. And I agree with you. I did play Denver.
- [28:08]
Stuckey
This got like ten, three and a half. And as the Eagles are running off the field getting booed. Yeah, that's what. And I'm with you. And this is. I mean, it's no slide. I mean, the Eagles have created two offensive coordinators to become head coaches. It's just hard to replace your offensive coordinator every year.
- [28:27]
Ty Franklin
You know, this happened a couple years ago. Brian Johnson, their offense. Yeah, a disaster. But they're. The Eagles are like the new Chiefs. Like, they're just. They won the super bowl and then it looks ugly, but they just win somehow on like weird things by the three. So.
- [28:45]
Stuckey
All your metric, all your metrics that you're saying, I think Eagles fans would be like, okay, well, clearly the Chiefs are going to be pretty good now they beat the Chiefs and they beat two of the best teams in the nfc. So it's like you can say whatever you want, but we fucking won the game.
- [28:57]
Ty Franklin
They didn't. Which is all Chiefs fans used to say. Like last year, The Chiefs won 11. They went 11 and 01 possession games. And then their offense, like, hurts and they turn it on in the playoffs like they're, they're the new Chiefs. But I played the Broncos here. Their, their defense as of right now will be the best unit on the field. So, yeah, I think in a lower scoring game, you got to take over a field goal.
- [29:19]
Stuckey
Okay, let's Talk about the AFC 49ers. Your entire team is injured. Welcome to the party. And I saw the number. I think was it Monday morning. When I looked at the board, the, the Texans were like, it was like plus one and a half. It is now. Looking at it right now, they're minus one and a half. All signs point to Lamar Jackson not playing hamstring. And you know, obviously that's enormous. But defensively, I, you know, if, even if Lamar was playing, if Houston couldn't get right against this unit, given their majority of their good players are not going to play, it would have been a major red flag on the Texans. But if Lamar doesn't play and all the defensive guys are clearly out this Baltimore team, it's got a little year from hell feel, doesn't it?
- [30:04]
Ty Franklin
Yep. Yeah, it's, it's a mess. I mean, like, not only is it Lamar, so like the look ahead line for this game is like ravens minus 10 and then there was like seven and a half out there earlier this week. So I made this around nine and a half ten, and it would have been a really good Raven spot. But then with all the injuries and I'm talking like Ronnie Stanley, he's hurt, he's backed up. If he doesn't play against you, you know, you're going up against two of the best edge rushers with Cooper rush back there and your offense changes drastically. But on defense, your whole defensive line is hurt, not a bouquet. Your most important one is out for the year. Roquan Smith, your best linebacker, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey. I mean, you're talking, I mean you're talking like 7, 6, 7, 8 starters, most of them Pro Bowlers that could be out. So then I have to take the Ravens down a couple points. I would project around seven. And then you got to take Lamar out, which he's worth probably about a touchdown. So I make this around A pick. Am I that confident in the number? No. Like I, I'm trying to measure the. I don't know exactly who's going to be out either, but just the amount of cluster injuries. This, this defense right now looks like the worst defense in the league. Which makes sense if you're playing without five or six your whole D line and then five or six Pro Bowlers. Tell me another team in the league that can survive that like every everyone is coming for Zach or's head. I have no idea. Like anyone that took the Texans with a plus sign early in the week, probably a good bet. I won't be betting this. I have zero clue. And yeah, it's a shame. The you want to know is living a charmed life is the the ramps they get now. Maybe the gods are paying paying them back for that blocked field goal. They should pay me back. I haven't gotten any rewards yet from that because I lost money on that. You know they get the 80 Mitchell dropped touchdown at the one which flipped that game. Then they get the 49ers who have are decimated extra rest. And then they play the Ravens next week week who were decimated. That's supposed to be two of their hardest games on the schedule. And they might get both teams with just a bunch of backups which is massive for the season. So the Rams are running well. But I you know, I think that because the Ravens have been so bad, like people might think, oh, the Chiefs offense is back. I don't know like that. I think that was all about the Ravens day. Look at last week the Lions. Everyone's talking about the oh look at the Lions did to Baltimore. I mean the Chiefs put up 38. Like the Ravens defense is not bad of shape. Which is why I had to play the Bengals this week because think about it. The lines got to play the Bears. The Bears whole secondary was out. They played the Ravens with all of their defensive injuries. And then last week against the Browns it was like the Browns turning the ball over and they got to play at home. The Bengals at plus ten and a half at home. I had to play. It's ugly. Who wants to play the Bengals after what you saw last week. But Browning has like functioned at least in the past as a quarterback. And this is I think the just the very bottom of the market on the Bengals. They're going to be at home. They just had to play Flores and the Broncos defenses on the road and two of the hardest environments in the NFL. Now how are they going to get stops? I Don't know but like 10 and a half they can probably keep up here. I mean this is a Lions team. That's what they ranked 28th and past rush win rate. So it's not going to be like everyone is in the backfield right away. Both of their starting corners are going to be out here. Going up against Jason Higgins, you're probably going to have like they got to kick their nickel out. The rocky house sin is probably going to start at the other corner spot. You might have to move like branch down to nickel or put in Avante Maddox who's terrible. So like their corners are, are going to be really bad here. So yeah, I think this is a good buy, low sell, high spot. Lions feeling good. They got the Chiefs on deck. The Lions are blitzing at the highest rate in the league this year. And Browning actually has decent numbers against the blitz in his career, including this year. It's like the one thing that he's done well. And for what it's worth, home dogs of 10 plus over the last 20 years, 74, 56 and 157 off a loss of 22 plus touchdowns, 60% against the spread. Home dogs after scoring three or fewer points. Again, home dog, they just scored three or four. Who wants to bet those teams? Well, 61, 36 and 2 against the spread, 63%. So yeah, I don't know how they're going to stop Detroit, but they can keep up here. So I think it's a good, good time to buy low on the Bengals.
- [34:44]
Stuckey
Okay. One interesting NFC game is in theory Tampa going to Seattle. But Bull said they have so many injuries that they had practice to essentially a walkthrough on Wednesday. I can't imagine that gets much better throughout the week. The Tampa, I mean, we have an injury epidemic. I mean you and I have talked a lot about it. I've talked a lot about on the show. It kind of sucks. I mean, there was one point in time Sunday I looked up in the morning slate and there were multiple carts out on multiple games and there were other players laying on the field. It's pretty nuts. You know, it's not, it's not even just season enders like Tyreek Hill. It's guys limping off like Joe Alt with high ankle sprain. It's all over the league and It's. We're. It's October 1st. You know, we got, we got a long way to go and there's just not enough players in the NFL. The product. I'm not trying to be a negative Nancy Here. But geez, it's just. I don't know the answer. We're never going back to like double days in training camp and pads during the regular season. But it is impacting these guys, the calluses on their body.
- [35:43]
Ty Franklin
Like a fighter. Right. Preseason too. How we handles preseason.
- [35:48]
Stuckey
It's a joke.
- [35:50]
Ty Franklin
And we've talked about this before because of. I think the NFL also has to get rid of like some of these turfs. But like you. You see after the Giants game there was Explorer. What are we doing? But you see this especially with offensive lines. So there's this. No, there's like the offensive line talent compared to the defensive line talent in the NFL. The offensive lines are so far behind because a lot of it is just because how these colleges operate offenses and there's just a lack of viable starting caliber offensive lineman in the NFL. So like these teams lose one or two and their offensive line is just decrepit. It's a disaster. So yeah, I mean you're seeing that with the Bucks right now. The Bucks have two backups in on the right side of their offensive line. No Evans, it looks like no Bucky Irving, which is massive. They've also a ton of injuries on defense. Redick Gaines can he's out for the year. Dean and Morrison, the rookie Morrison's looked really good, but Dean, they're starting corner but they have corner cluster injuries. And it looks like the Seahawks are pretty healthy outside of Lawrence is who I have to check on this week. But the and this is a good spot for Seattle. Extra rest at home. They're off the Thursday night game. Tampa coming across the country dealing with a lot of injuries. Practice disrupted, the way to beat Baker and the way to beat Baker forever. And still this year, if you look at his numbers is pressure without blitzing. You blitz him. He's historically been pretty good against the blitz. He'll scramble just he'll gash you up the middle, find a lane. But if you can get pressure quickly and then play coverage on the back end, he's going to make some mistakes and he's due for some mistakes. He's had a great year and he's had a great run in Tampa. But you know, he has nine touchdowns, one interception, his nine turnover with. He plays on the year like there's been a ton of drop picks. Well, that's the definition of the Seattle defense. They are top five in pressure rate, bottom two in blitz rate. They don't blitz and they're getting a ton of pressure. And then you have McDonald disguising coverages on the back end and that's a dangerous combo and it's probably going to lead to some Baker mistakes here. Sam Darnold over the last two years is destroying the blitz. He's been so good against the blitz, it's insane if you look at his numbers and you're going to get that against Bowles and this is going to be an undermanned defense. So yeah, I played the Seahawks. Anything three or better I think is good.
- [38:27]
Stuckey
Baker's only interception is the one he threw against Philly in the end zone.
- [38:30]
Ty Franklin
Yep, he had like three. He's had like six or seven drops dropped interceptions. He also has had three or four fumbles that the Tampa all recovered. So like they've been very fortunate in a lot of games. Most of their, all their wins, they could have went either way. They won by two, two and two, I think. So yeah, there's some turnovers coming for this Bucks offense and they're just not healthy right now. He's probably going to be under pressure and expect McDonald to cook up some nice disguises on the back end to get a turnover or two. So yeah, I do like Seattle there. It's a pretty good spot matchup. And then you throw in the injuries, it's, it's, it's going to be a tough task for the Bucks.
- [39:11]
Stuckey
Well, the Combi's got the Jaden Daniels going to play this week. So you got the Chargers who are a good example, kind of like the Bucks and like a lot of these teams, your left tackles out. Your right tackle, who's a stud, moves to left tackle now he's out. You just. Becton has been out. I mean you just got. There's no way to replace these holes. Like you can put a band aid on the Slater thing because of alt, but once he disappears, I don't give a shit who you are. There's just not enough tackles in the league that are functional. And I.
- [39:43]
Ty Franklin
You can't have two Pro bowl caliber tackles and then lose them both and expect to be okay.
- [39:46]
Stuckey
You're completely screwed. Now, luckily their quarterback's mobile. But like I, I just short you when that situation happens because I think it gets hard to function. And this is an offensive coach in staff. I mean, Harbaugh doesn't call the plays, but Roman, ironically they've been passing a lot more this year, right? More than Roman ever has. But I mean their quarterback looks like, you know, an MVP level guy. But it's going to be hard to drop back. I don't care who you're playing. It could be the Broncos or it could be the worst passers in the league. When you have this level of talent on the missing, your guy's going to be under siege. These guys are not going to be able to block. So I kind of like the comment the almost called them the commoners. The commanders here. Plus two and a half.
- [40:27]
Ty Franklin
I don't know. I can't bet this game just because there's so much uncertainty. The offensive line is a mess for the Chargers, so I don't know what they're going to do. The fact also Bradley Boseman, their center has been the worst center in the league. So they signed Andre James from the Raiders. Do they. They might go to him. If Becton is back, they might kick Salier out to left tackle. He's played there before. Like a couple times when all was out. But now like you're moving all. There's like no. And their interior was already the question. So it's a mess. I mean now, now the Washington, the commander's defense is not the Giants defense. They don't have the same guys up front but it still could be a disaster. But I don't know if they're going to try to run it more now. So I don't that's like from a game script perspective, I don't know what the Chargers are going to do and then on the other side. So I would agree with your premise that hey, I want to short this team. But I also don't know if Daniels is going to be 100% and like his him having his full mobility and being able to use his legs is one of his biggest attributes. So yeah with the offensive line questions and then just Washington's other injuries too, like McLaren.
- [41:43]
Stuckey
He's out. Yeah.
- [41:45]
Ty Franklin
That is for me a pure stay away. The only other the other games that I played and they're gross. I played the Saints when they were an underdog, but I think the Saints beat the giants. It starts first road start. Quarterbacks in their first two starts ever in the NFL. By the way. On the road are 13 and 34 straight up. There's no neighbors. They have tape on what they want to do. The Saints have been frisky like they've been in games with teams. I think they get their first win here. Then their Rundy's been good. The Giants run. He's been the worst in the league. These are two teams that want to rely on the run. So I took the Saints. I did take the jets against the Cowboys. Cowboys off an overtime game, like just draining game. Jets have been really unlucky in a couple games this year. I think they're going to beat the Cowboys. And then I played the Panthers and I think a good spot against the Dolphins. Those were the other. Yeah, you could tell I've got a lot of great teams this week.
- [42:36]
Stuckey
Okay. Yeah, I mean it's. It's not a great. It's not a great slate. The New England Buffalo game in theory is interesting Sunday night. I don't quite know what to make in New England. I mean, you curb stomp the Panthers. Are they good? You know, you beat Miami in a weird game, the Buffalo. You know, you nailed that last week against the Saints. I mean, that was. What was that plus, was it 15 and a half? Is that what the game ended at?
- [43:01]
Ty Franklin
The Saints were in that like, that game was close.
- [43:04]
Stuckey
I agree. This is a game that, you know, I would imagine Buffalo's had complete ownership over this division. I don't know. I mean, I.8 points a lot, but to me, if I'm betting this game, I'm taking Buffalo on the points.
- [43:18]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, I got to wait on injuries here. So. The Bills defense right now is a mess and part of that is injuries. Milano and Ed Oliver, their best defensive lineman, have been hurt and have been out and they can't stop the run. But the Patriots can't run the ball this year. Drake May's been good, even though his protection's been bad and his receivers aren't great from a separation standpoint. But he's actually looked pretty good. But he's like taking too many sacks and he. The Bills are getting. Still getting a ton of pressure. They're one of the top pressure rate teams in the league, so there could be a lot of negative plays here to kill drives and the Patriots aren't going to get as much pressure. So Allen is most likely here going to just abuse the middle of the field. The Patriots probably have. Their safeties are struggling and they probably have the worst coverage linebackers in the league by a wide margin. So like over the middle of the field, Alan can probably carve them up, but I gotta wait on the injuries. Spencer Brown, their right tackle, will he go? Milano and Oliver. So I haven't done anything with that, but it does. It also feels like the Patriots could be down 14 and then they'll have a chance to get a back door, which May has done a bunch. But there's injuries on the Bills. That's. That's what you need to monitor because their D has been really really bad. I mean, they, the Saints average like 6 yards per carry on like, I don't know, 35, 40 carries. Last week they were going up and down the field. If they didn't throw a pick on a Philly special and, you know, drop a touchdown, like they could have won that game. And it was because the Bills defense could not get off the field. So, yeah, I have no strong feel now. Waiting on some key injuries there.
- [45:01]
Stuckey
Okay, let's get to the Monday night game because you go. Well, three and a half feels, you know, the Chiefs. I like Chiefs in this spot. My three and a half. Here's the thing. Jacksonville's good on defense.
- [45:11]
Ty Franklin
They're.
- [45:11]
Stuckey
They're creating a ton of turnovers. They scored 26 points last week. Seven of them came on a punt return. Three more came on a terrible kickoff coverage. Again, the 49ers are awful on special teams. They get a field goal that's 10 points. ETN touchdown came on a fumble and he immediately scores on a long touchdown. So it's not like their offense is putting together these long drives. I don't think Trevor Lawrence is good. Brian Thomas has had issues with like, I don't know, not being into it. Slash kind of banged up. Travis Hunter's just not done anything. So to me, I just like the Chiefs in this spot.
- [45:47]
Ty Franklin
I disagree with you. This is the first time we're going to disagree this week. I played the Jags any. I think anything above 3 or cheap 3 is good. Like, I'm not buying into the like. Worthy helps, but they still can't run the ball. Mahomes should have a, a bunch more turnovers. His offensive line isn't solved. Like, there's been some drop picks. He's dropped. He's had a couple fumbles throwing it backwards and they've been pretty lucky in that department. But so I'm not sold. The offense is fixed because last week, again, I think it was all about the Ravens day. Like you're playing a bunch of backups. This Jaguars team is so improved from a coaching standpoint. It's on both sides of the ball. Their defense, they're actually playing more coverages that suit their, the back end. Their front seven is good, their D.
- [46:34]
Stuckey
Is good, their D is good.
- [46:35]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, their D is one of the most improved in the league and they have one of the best special teams units in the league. But yes, there is some, some turnover regression because they forced or they forced at least three turnovers in all four games. They have 13 takeaways on the year last year they had nine total for the entire season. So you can talk about regression. They were due, but they're probably now due to. They're not going to continue to get that. So the offense Cohen is putting him into, like, their offense is so well schemed. Like their running game, like, their offensive line is bad. They don't have a ton of dead talent and. But they're still able to put up points. They should be putting up more if they add more town. And like, they weren't dropping. They lead the league in drops. They have like 16 drops on the year. The next most, I think is the jets with nine. So drops have been killing them and then like just Lawrence making some dumb throws. But like the screen game, the running game, like, everything is so well schooled. So I'm not all the way in on this Chief's offense being back now. When they get Rice back, it could be scary, but they still can't run the ball. The offensive line still has issues. I think this Jags team is still undervalued a bit. I get that you might be a little salty after they beat your. Your 49ers and they definitely did get lucky. I mean, they won the turnover battle for nothing. But I, yeah, I, I took the Jags as a home dog. Should be a good one, though. I can see people making the case for the, for the Chiefs for sure, though.
- [48:03]
Stuckey
Yeah, it's actually. If you would have said Jaguars Monday Night Football, you'd be like, oh, but this is actually a pretty good Monday Night Football game.
- [48:10]
Ty Franklin
Agreed.
- [48:11]
Stuckey
I'm pretty excited, especially coming off what we just witnessed.
- [48:23]
Matt Jones
Hey, this is Matt Jones. I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We think NFL coverage should. Should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week. That is exactly what you're going to get. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Looks like something that should not be sold. Oh, my. So that was my other big Colts takeaway. They sold that.
- [48:48]
Stuckey
Yes.
- [48:49]
Matt Jones
Might want to go back to the Colts stadium. Yeah, I might want to go back to the drawing board on that. Yeah, I thought the shape we had with pretzels was working pretty well.
- [48:55]
Stuckey
It's worked for generations.
- [48:57]
Matt Jones
We're just here trying to enjoy it. We hope you all will join us throughout the year. And let's go. I hope I'm as youthful as Pete Carroll is at his age. He's a young 73. He is a young 73. He is spry.
- [49:08]
Stuckey
I would say.
- [49:09]
Matt Jones
I wouldn't fight him. I would listen NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [49:24]
Dr. J
But the humility in knowing that life is this classroom that we should never graduate from is what is going to keep you growing, and that's all that matters. World Mental Health Day is around the corner. And on my podcast, just heal with Dr. J, I dive into what it really means to care for your mind, body and spirit. From breaking generational patterns to building emotional capacity, healing is a journey, and wholeness is the destination.
- [49:56]
Ebony
I'm gonna walk away feeling very healed and feeling like, yes, I'm gonna continue.
- [50:02]
Ty Franklin
My healing journey and I'm gonna get.
- [50:04]
Ebony
Some keys from you.
- [50:05]
Dr. J
Listen to just heal with Dr. J from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [50:16]
A.J. Jacobs
Hello, puzzlers. Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land?
- [50:32]
Stuckey
Jeopardy.
- [50:33]
A.J. Jacobs
Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.
- [50:38]
Ty Franklin
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [50:41]
A.J. Jacobs
That's right. Are there Jeopardy. Truthers? Are there people who say that it's it was rigged?
- [50:45]
Ty Franklin
Yeah. Ever since I was first on, people are like, they gave you the answers. Right. And then there's the other ones which are like they gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [50:55]
A.J. Jacobs
Don't miss Jeopardy Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show Week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [51:16]
Ebony
Welcome to Pretty Private with ebony, the podcast where silence is broken and stories are set free. I'm ebony, and every Tuesday I'll be sharing all new anonymous stories that would challenge your perceptions and give you new insight on the people around you. On Pretty Private, we'll explore the untold experience, experiences of women of color who faced it all. Childhood trauma, addiction, abuse, incarceration, grief, mental health struggles and more. And found the strength to make it to the other side. My dad was shot and killed in his house. Yes, he was a drug dealer. Yes, he was a confidential informant. But he wasn't shot on a street corner. He wasn't shot in the middle of a drug deal. He was shot in his house, unarmed. Pretty private isn't just a podcast it's your personal guide for turning storylines into lifelines. Every Tuesday, make sure you listen to Pretty Private from the Black Effect podcast network. Tune in on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
- [52:29]
Stuckey
Sit on a couple college games. We kind of have this thing circled at the beginning of the season when we thought Florida was going to be feisty. Obviously, their coach is going to get fired and their team isn't very good, but I do think that defensively they've obviously been awesome. Even if guys were about ready to check out and get ready to hit the transfer portal when he does eventually get fired here, either this, you know, during the season or at the end of the year. This is an easy one because it's like if you're the defensive coordinator, we get to play Arch Manning. And so if you do want to make a lot of money, a lot of people are going to be paying attention to this game. So let's go kick his ass like this. Just, I don't know. I mean, Texas has played nobody since that first game. Arch has been horrendous. No one can get to the bottom of if he's injured. They keep pushing back. Everyone that knows anything about throwing mechanics. Slash, though. It's like, this doesn't make any sense. Something's got to be like, they're going to be out for blood defensively now. Offensively, they've blown. We know Texas good on. I'm not saying that Florida's winning this game, but is. Is Arch going to be able to throw for 150? Are they going to be able to move the ball against this team if they try again? The tri factor makes me a little nervous, but young kids, it's still early October. This is their last two raw. Throw everything you got. Maybe lose the game like 10 to 6 and then mail it in for the season. But I. I do think Florida's defense will look like the defense we've been seeing flying around specifically for this game and this quarterback. So I like Florida plus six and a half.
- [54:00]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, I especially get a seven, but it's six. And I think you got to take the points here. I mean, this total is 41. It's insane because you said that before the year, like Lagway versus Arch and the totals 41. That's how bad these offenses have been. But yeah, I mean, how's Florida going to move the ball? Well, first of all, how's Texas gonna move ball? I don't know. I mean, Texas couldn't move it against UTEP like it they arch was like 11 of 25 for 134 yards. Now both teams have had a buy so like who fixed what? Was there something to fix? I will say like Lagway didn't work with. He was hurt in the off season so. And he was dealing with some injuries. Maybe he's going to look healthier and he got some timing down with his receivers. There is a name to know which could change their offense because somehow Lagway was known for deep passing. Was the best deep ball passer in college football last year. They have no passes over 20 yards this year, not zero. I think they're the only team without any. That was supposed to be like they were supposed to be the one of the best doing that. But there's a kid who's going to make his debut. He's supposed to be their best receiver. He's a five star freshman. Dallas Wilson, it looks like he's going to play this week in the spring game against what we're seeing is a really good Florida defense. He had 10 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. So he's a absolute stud. So it looks like he's going to play. We'll see if that can unlock some deep shots. But yeah, I think Florida will care here at home against Texas. Like you know you're going to get a top 10 team like this is off of a buy that they'll have some juice, the Swamp will have some juice. So. And look they, everyone thought they were going to quit last year under Napier and they still came out and fought every week. So yeah, I think you got to take the points with just all the uncertainty. You can't trust this Texas offense right now laying points against what looks like an elite defense. And they're doing without getting like they're not getting much pressure and they're just fundamentally sound. They're not going to let Arch scramble which is like what his best attribute is right now. So yeah, I think you got to take the points there. Like look out for, keep an eye on him. For Dallas Wilson, one of the great.
- [56:11]
Stuckey
Rivalries in college football. I, I had gone to the Ryder cup and had a few cocktails and then we got back, I had a few more. One thing I noticed about New York City, it's not, I would say it's not college football heavy. We went to multiple bars, baseball's everywhere. There's some boxing on. You know, it's just, it's like I'm not going to bother these people to Try to put on Florida State, Miami. We ended up going to dinner, so I really didn't see much of this game. I didn't see any of it really. I just saw the outcome, which clearly was a pretty big deal for the universe. So it's Florida State. You know, because you look back, I did watch like everyone, Bama, Georgia and you know, God, they beat this team. That's pretty impressive. Now clearly Bama looks dramatically different a month later. I would imagine that they played again. I think we'd all like Alabama in that spot. Yeah, Ty Simpson looks fantastic. I thought he was incredible in that game relative to what I thought of him, you know, a month ago. But, you know, this is a spot for Florida State. Is Florida State good? I don't know. We all agree Miami's freaking load, especially defensively. Their defensive line. I guess you just take Miami minus four and a half. It is at Florida State that Tomahawk chop gets going. But what do you make? Were they looking ahead against Virginia? Is Virginia a little better than we think?
- [57:25]
Ty Franklin
Virginia's offense is definitely good. Chandler Morris is playing really well. They. They hit some guys in the portal like they went out and spent a ton of money. So their offense does look legit. Yeah, they might have been peeking ahead a bit, feeling themselves a little bit. I do like that Castellanos in that. Like they can. He is mobile and they're going to run it a ton and they can put those defensive ends in conflict. And so I think Florida State can move the ball here. And you know, whenever these Florida teams play like all these Florida kids, I'm always inclined to take the points. But you know, because if you look what Miami has done this year, like the Notre Dame defense hasn't been as good as we thought. It's been actually pretty bad. Up and up until last week. They got South Florida in a dream spot, like an absolute nightmare spot for South Florida who was coming off two ranked wins which. When does that have. When did south that ever happened in South Florida? And then they're playing their third straight ranked team and Miami was coming off of a buy and then Miami played this broken Florida team and you know, Beck didn't do much. I mean he threw for 150 yards. They only averaged 4 yards per carry. So maybe we overrated this Miami offense a little bit, which is a thought that I've had. So I expect Florida State to bounce back. I think that this offense can have success against this Miami defense with the way that they use Castellanos legs. But I do think Miami is the best team in the country in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That matters a lot and that that could get them far in the College Football Playoff and just this season in general. So I don't have a strong feel yet. My first I have to break that one down some more. If you are into college, we'll break down that game in depth and the entire slate on big big bets on campus. Wherever you listen to podcasts, my first inclination is to take the points. But I don't have a strong feeling yet and I have not put any money down on that game.
- [59:35]
Stuckey
Your LSU ticket to win the Natty that's done. You think they're done?
- [59:40]
Ty Franklin
They're done. They. They don't have an offensive line. They're offensive line. The the. The hope was this brand new offensive line they couldn't run the ball last year was going to be able to gel and they would have a run game and they didn't have any run game last year and then that could provide balance to the but they, they don't have a run game and they can't protect. They can't protect their quarterback. I can't even think of his name. Nus Meyer Nussmeier who people are saying now he might be hurt. There's rumors that he might be hurt now for the year. So I their defense is really good but I don't think their, their offense has their offensive line has it and the SEC is just way too difficult. They needed to get that Ole Miss game so I mean they could still make a run but I don't see it with the way that their offense looks. And, and by the way you have to look back their data points now age much worse because they beat Clemson. Clemson is a disaster. So they beat that that law that win looks much worse. Everyone's beating Clemson. I mean Syracuse is beating Clemson at Clemson and then they beat Florida. But I mean lagway through five picks they still only won by 10 and Florida has been a mess. So like those two wins that look great don't look as right now and then I just think the offensive line has too many issues. So yeah, I don't see it happening. I'll be rooting for it but as of right now I can't see it with the state of state of that offensive line still no run game and now the pass protection is worse because now you don't have four NFL guys four guys that are now in the NFL protecting you some.
- [61:14]
Stuckey
Someone sent me a clip of an Oregon like Fan page put together this like montage of people talking.
- [61:22]
Ty Franklin
I think I was on that.
- [61:23]
Stuckey
Yeah, you were. You were. He never more had never played in a big game which was factually true. And you know, it's crazy. Oregon, I mean they have, you know, Coward who's from the Northwest has always said like they are the one brand new team to college football in the Internet age. Like Miami's been around forever, right? Ohio State's been around forever. Georgia, Alabama, long history. It's like Oregon's history started is by far the newest team because of Phil Knight and Nike. And they are just like, you could tell. Like I love that jersey scheme. When they came out in those I was like, damn, they, they look pretty sweet. That tight end's a monster. And that quarterback like five star guy. Like you said, you never know how these guys are going to react but he's way better than the other guy. And it's like I, I, I wanted to like aller you and I pounded the table, get this new offensive coordinator like I'm sorry I'm out. Like you, you can't win. And who knows, they, they can still make the playoffs or whatever. Like there's no chance. Like no, I don't even think he's beating anyone good in the playoffs. So it's just now I think you know, Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, Bama, Oregon, like we're starting to get a little separation, I think. Would, would you throw Ole Miss in there or. It's just they're not quite on that level now.
- [62:37]
Ty Franklin
Their offensive line is bad, their defense is still really bad. They, I don't think they could put together any type of deep run. You know my, yeah and I was, I was dead wrong on Oregon. I had a lot of money on Penn State minus three getting it closed like four, four and a half. The market agreed me but I believe the market was wrong. I was wrong. I wanted to see more in those freshmen in a huge environment and they were, they, they did it. I thought Penn State was holding was they had a buy. They were not showing anything. Well, here's the, here's what's inside of that game. You know, Aller wasn't great, but Oregon beat the out of them on the offensive line on both sides of the ball. And Oregon had a rebuilt offensive line and rebuilt like the recruits that they've got on the defensive line, they're all young too. They're going to be around for another year. Like they dominated that game at the line of scrimmage and more didn't make any mistakes and yeah they deserve to win that game. They didn't even deserve to go to overtime. You know Penn State got pretty lucky that it went to overtime. So yeah they look very good. If I had to throw another team in the mix I would probably throw in Texas A and M. I think Elko is starting to get that defense rounded into form. He's. That's was his basically his primary job this offseason. And their offense looks really explosive. What they have two really. I mean their receivers, Craver and Concepcion and they have one of the best offensive lines in college football, one of the best running games. I mean they have like a three headed monster in the backfield led by Levy on Moss. A mobile quarterback Marcel Reed looks to be getting better. You might say. Oh they only beat Auburn 1610. They out gained them 415 to 170. Like just a completely fluky game. They dominated that game. The they went, you know they won at Notre dame already. They're 14 and a half point favorites against Mississippi State this week. Then they're going to get Florida. They go to Arkansas. Like this is a team that's probably going to be 7 0. Then they go to LSU who might be broken. They have South Carolina, Samford at home. They're at Missouri who's pretty good but they could win that game. And then they closed the season at Texas. I'll tell you right now I want, I'd take Texas A and I'm over Texas right now unless I see anything more for March. So this is a team that could they go 10 and 2. They're going to the College Football Playoff. I mean especially with a win an SEC team and they have a win at Notre Dame. One of the best non conference wins of the season. But there's a chance they could go 11 and 1. But I think they have a really good shot of 10 and 2. And if Elko starts to round this defense into form and it looked that to be the case last week against Auburn. Their offense looks electric and they have that they have the offensive line. I like their coach, the running game, the receivers. There's that that's a team that, that could be one that makes a run that not many are talking about.
- [65:37]
Stuckey
And I would say Oklahoma, I mean that news on the quarterback is just. I mean three weeks sounds best case. It's just throwing hand to grip the ball. I mean that's pretty fucking devastating.
- [65:46]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, well the problem for Oklahoma is that and then their schedule, like I just mentioned Texas A M schedule, pretty reasonable for A SEC team but like Oklahoma still has what they have Texas on a neutral. They have Ole Miss.
- [66:06]
Stuckey
But how do they win that game with a backup quarterback?
- [66:09]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, it's going to be. Well, it's their defense. If Arch is a disaster, you just win it. 13:10. Yeah, so but they're at Tennessee, they're at Alabama and then they close with Missouri and lsu. So their schedule is brutal. And yeah, the injury throws a wrench into that. So we'll see when Mattier can come back. But it's going to be tough if they're not fully healthy and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country.
- [66:34]
Stuckey
You know, I'm happy for is Kaylin DeBoer because that Florida State game, which was jarring to watch his body of work like he just. That that was an outlier game of his career. He beat Kirby twice. I mean their team's rolling right now and Ryan Williams is even good. You know, I mean Ryan Williams, like you get some people. I've heard some Bama people like Benjamin. Let's get this guy. We don't even need him. And what he's doing with Ty Simpson, it's like Kendabois pretty freaking good. And I would say Alabama's on the come right now.
- [67:07]
Ty Franklin
Yeah, the Deborah's like he's won wherever he's gone. He out coached Kirby early. Like the way I thought about that game is I wanted to bet Georgia live because I figured that Deborah was gonna have a really good plan. And I mean Kirby's one. He's probably the best in game adjuster and that's what happened. But Alabama was able to hold on. I mean Album didn't score in the second half, but Simpson looks much more comfortable. Deborah's biggest problem has been which is very shocking for a coach, one of the best coaches in college football. He's had a couple games where they're like big favorites and they show up and they look like they're not prepared and they kind of like take the opponent lightly. We saw that last year against like Oklahoma, Michigan in the bowl game, Vanderbilt, Florida State earlier this year and Alabama still. And this goes back to the saving days, but still they struggle with mobile quarterbacks and that's they're going to see this week with Diego Pavia and this Vanderbilt offense which is a wagon right now. I mean their offense is you look at like a adjusted for opponent. They, them and USC have the two best offense in the country. Talking passing and rushing offenses, they are have been unbelievable and their defense isn't that good. They're probably not going to get that many stops. I, I don't hate the over in this game. It's daddy's ten and a half.
- [68:20]
Stuckey
Eighty plus ten. Yeah, ten and a half.
- [68:22]
Ty Franklin
I won't bet against Dandy as their coaching staff is awesome too. I won't bet against Pavi as a dog. I mean he is at, at Vandy. He's 10 and two against the spread as an underdog with seven outright wins and most of those, I mean he's winning games when he's like 21, 24 point underdogs, 27. Like it's insane. But I don't know if I'm gonna bet Bandy so I kind of might. I like the over because I, I battle will be ready for this. Like they're, they were embarrassed last year. They've had this circled so it's not like they're going to be hungover from the Georgia game if Bama goes up early. So I think they're probably going to have a like some wrinkles early. They. I could see it being starting like the Georgia game. I'll probably look to bet Vandy live. And Bama doesn't have a great running game which might hurt them late. But they might just want to keep pouring it on here. So I don't hate the over. I won't bet against Pavi as a dog. But Bama wants this. So I could see. I make it ten and a half is my projection so I'm right on the market. I could see you could make a case for either side here. I think the fun way to play it and the way that I would look, 55 is a key number in college football. Keep that in mind when you're betting totals. But I, I could see this being an over again. The Vandy offense right now is electric and I don't, I can't see them slowing down Bama too many times. And Vandy will fight to the death and I'm sure Deborah and company want to if they can. They might put in an extra score or two for what happened last year.
- [69:53]
Stuckey
Who would have thought about five, 10 years ago that Vandy Bama would have been much, much watch at 12:30 or 12:30 Pacific Standard Time on, on a.
- [70:03]
Ty Franklin
Random Saturday Vandy's going to have now Vandy hosts like Vandy's gonna have a say in the college football playoff. I mean maybe they can make it, but I doubt it with their schedule. But all these SEC teams that want to get there. Like if Alabama lose this game. They're. They're in doubt. They're in jeopardy of missing the cottageball playoff. They host LSU next week. They could knock out lsu. They host Missouri the week after that. They could knock. They could help knock down Missouri. They're at Texas. They could eliminate Texas if they have another loss, then they're home against Auburn and then they close the year at Tennessee. Like, first of all, that schedule is ridiculous. But they're gonna have a say and they're probably gonna pull an upset or two off as they've done throughout Pavia's career. So yeah, we'll. And then they hope they host Auburn and he. Pavia owns Hugh Freeze going back to Liberty New Mexico State when he beat him as a three touchdown underdog.
- [71:00]
Stuckey
What if they go 10 and 2? Why, why couldn't they make it?
- [71:04]
Ty Franklin
They who? Vandy? Yeah, yeah, they could, but they'd have to go like 10 and 10 and 2. Are they gonna win? Like, they're not gonna win all these games, but like LSU looks like they have issues. Texas might have issues. So, like maybe some of those games get easier than they thought. And if they win this game. Yeah, they're in the, they're in the discussion.
- [71:23]
Stuckey
Vandy almost beat Texas last year. I remember watching that game. I was like, God, Vandy's better than I thought. Texas was laying an egg. Now looking back, actually, Vandy's not terrible, you know. Appreciate you, Stucky. Have a good week and we will check in with you next week.
- [71:39]
Ty Franklin
Absolutely. Have a good one, everyone. Thanks.
- [71:44]
Matt Jones
The volume.
- [71:48]
Stuckey
Toyota is all in all season.
- [71:51]
Matt Jones
And with Toyota game day giveaways, the.
- [71:53]
Stuckey
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- [72:12]
Matt Jones
Toyota let's go places no purchase necessary. Void where prohibited. Ends 28:26 Open to legal residents of the 50 US states and DC 18 and over.
- [72:22]
Ty Franklin
For complete details, how to enter prizes and official rules, visit toyotasgamedaygiveaways.com hey, this.
- [72:29]
Matt Jones
Is Matt Jones and I'm Drew Franklin and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week that is exactly what you're gonna get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [73:01]
Stuckey
I'm Dan.
- [73:01]
Ty Franklin
He's Ty.
- [73:02]
Stuckey
Hello.
- [73:03]
Ty Franklin
And we're the solid verbal College football Podcast.
- [73:06]
Stuckey
Tune in for previews, recaps, bits you won't hear anywhere else, and all the emotional support you need as a college football fan.
- [73:15]
Ty Franklin
Join us all season long as we ride the roller coaster of this ridiculous sport.
- [73:19]
Stuckey
Listen to the solid verbal college football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We don't just love college football, Ty.
- [73:30]
Ty Franklin
We live it.
- [73:32]
A.J. Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in?
- [73:49]
Ty Franklin
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [73:51]
A.J. Jacobs
That's right.
- [73:52]
Ty Franklin
They gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [73:54]
A.J. Jacobs
The Puzzler. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [74:03]
Ebony
This is an iHeart podcast.