← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Vikings-Lions, Bengals-Steelers, Chiefs-Broncos, Super Bowl futures
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- [00:00]
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- [00:36]
Jon Stewart
Jon Stewart is back at the Daily show and he's bringing his signature wit and insight straight to your ears with the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. Dive into John's unique take on the biggest topics in politics, entertainment, sports and more. Joined by the sharp voices of the show's correspondence and contributors. And with extended interviews and exclusive weekly headline roundups, you this podcast gives you content you won't find anywhere else. Ready to laugh and stay informed, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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T-Mobile Representative
The Volume.
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Unknown Speaker 1
What is going everybody?
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Unknown Speaker 2
How are we doing?
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Unknown Speaker 1
Hopefully everyone's having a, a good New Year's, having a good week. We're all thrown off this, this two week stretch, especially with Christmas, Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, New Year's falling in the middle of the week. Back to back weeks can really throw you off and I definitely fall under that category. I got some sickness. I don't know what it is. I just, I can't shake it. I'm gonna go try to sit in the sauna and steam room, see if that will cure me because it's been going on like five days now. It sucks. But I'm thrown off. So instead of doing a mailbag on Saturday, I talked to Stuckey about 24 hours ago and we got a big NFL weekend, at least a couple big games, a lot of other games, they're meaningless. It's, it's impossible to know who's going to play. So we tried to dive in any trends, you know, to get our gamble on, we get, get a little juice flowing into the start of the new year. I do think there are some interesting, you know, future bets right now. When you look at teams like, you know, from a value standpoint, hard to bet against the Chiefs, but from a value standpoint, the winner of the Ravens Bills game, you can get both those two at, you know, close to seven to one. So we'll talk a little bit about that as well. Obviously the playoffs coming up next week with the NFL, the College football semifinals. We have coaches getting fired. I mean, it's going to be a crazy, a crazy time in terms of the football world. So we gotta, we gotta strap in, buckle up. Pedal to the metal here and. And yeah, so we will talk to Stuckey today. That will be it. No middle cuff, mailbag. I will bang out a few next week for sure. I had Jackson come on after the Notre Dame game. He's a big Notre Dame guy. So we did about an hour of college football yesterday if you missed it. So you can go check that out. Make sure you subscribe to three and Out. You know, if you listen on Collins feed, make sure you subscribe to the 3Now feed. YouTube channel has all of our content as well. And. And yeah, let's dive into Stuckey. It's bittersweet because when you look at your DraftKings app, all lines here are presented by our friends at DraftKings. And you realize that it's week 18 in college football's coming to a screeching end. Football. You can see the end, the light at the end of the tunnel where there just is no football for a long period of time. And that makes me sad. So I stopped complaining if there was a crappy game on a Thursday night, if there was a crappy Monday night game, and I just said it's football, I was going to enjoy it. But then I look at the lines this weekend, I think one of my favorite lines of the weekend of the year is my Guy Stuckey squad, the Ravens I saw this morning, they are laying 18 points against the fighting Cleveland Browns, who I know they were having a season from hell, but when you look at the record and it says, what are they, 3 and 13? They are really, really shitty. I mean, for a team just last year that won 11 games was Stefanski, man, what a season from hell. From the Browns.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, it's. I think that they're, they're point. Their team total is 11 and a half. I think. I think that's what it's at. Which is like as low as you'll ever see in, in the NFL. It's. Yeah, it is. It is bittersweet. There's only eight college. We're recording this on a Thursday. There's only eight college football games left. And yeah, we're heading into the final regular season week in the NFL, but I am actually looking, I'm looking forward to the NFL playoffs. Like this regular season, it's been, it's been pretty bizarre. I mean, favorites have dominated. It's been one of the most successful, favorite years of all time. And a lot of that is like, in the NFL, we usually have like extreme parody, but that's just not been the case this year. There's a chance we have nine teams finish with four or fewer wins. I believe we've never had more than seven. And we have an. There's an extra game now. So just that there's been so many bad teams, and then a lot of those bad teams have had injuries and some of the quarterback situations on some of these bad teams has just made the regular season not as exciting as it usually is. But what I think that that will lead to is a much more exciting playoffs. I mean, you're going to have a. Either a Lions or Vikings team that is currently 14 and 2. Both of them are 14. The loser is the 5 seed, which is pretty insane. But, yeah, I think that.
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Unknown Speaker 1
I don't think we'll ever see a 14 win, 5 seed again or very unlikely. I mean, that's, that's hard to get.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, it's insane. So I think that we're. It's going to be a really, really good NFL playoffs. Just, I mean, in the afc, can the Ravens or Bills get over the hump against the Chiefs, who seem to be putting it together at the right time? And then the nfc, it's, it's pretty wide open. Can Detroit just get through the nfc? I mean, they need, they need to get. The Lions game is huge against the Vikings because with their defensive injuries, I mean, over the past three weeks, they've been the worst defense in the NFL. They go. I mean, they give up suits, all these injuries set. They go 48 to Buffalo. Even the Bears put up like 400 yards. They were moving the ball. And then last week, the Niners, they did whatever they wanted on offense. And it wasn't like they had a complete. They had a. Their offensive line was a shell of itself. The San Francisco 49ers had a 60% success rate for the game. Only five other teams have done that in a game this year. They just missed field goals, as they always do, and turned it over a couple of times. But the Lions, can they. That's why they need to get home field, maybe get a bit healthier. You get to play at home, but they're going to have to win in shootouts. But you have, you know, you also have the packers, the Vikings, the Eagles. To the nfc, I think is. Is really exciting and pretty deep this year. You have a Rams team that's going to be dangerous as well. And can beat anybody on any given Sunday. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to the playoffs and I think that lack of parity is going to make for a more exciting postseason because you do have a lot of really good teams this year.
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Unknown Speaker 1
Well, before, before we dive in, I wrote down some big picture things I want to get into is, I think when you speak of the shittiness at the bottom of the NFL on Monday night, you know, most people in my life are 49er people, and everyone's like, should we be losing this game? When it looked like the 49ers were going to win, I was like, they're, they are having the season from hell and they're currently drafting 11. So whether you win or lose this game, drafting 11 or drafting 14th, if they were drafting like 4th, yeah, you should root for them to lose. But they're, they could lose out and they're still not going to draft in the top 10. So whether you win a game or lose a game, it's not, this isn't the Giants, Raiders, Patriots situation. They can't, they're not playing in that sandbox. It's pretty insane. The Niners are not going to draft in the top 10. And that includes if they lose this week to Arizona and they go 6 and 11. So that just shows you how crappy. And the Niners really don't have that much in common with those teams. So it's, it feels right, but it's crazy how bad, you know, the bottom seven or eight have truly been most of the season with the Giants, the Titans, the Raiders, the Patriots. I mean, both of them had moments in a given game, but over the course of like two months, stretches, I mean, they are just putrid football teams. So I hear you there. And when I think big picture, I look today, I looked at some futures right now. The Chiefs, rightfully so. They flipped a switch. Holy shit, they look good again. Even. You know, my fiance keeps looking at me. She's like, are they really going to win it again? She asked me that yesterday because there was some, you know, ad about the NFL playoffs or she was looking at someone on Instagram like, you know, I wouldn't have said yes a month ago, but don't be surprised if it happens again. But I do think there's some value. Assuming Baltimore wins. I mean, they're almost a 20 point favorite. You can get Baltimore, Buffalo at plus 650. So if you took $1,000 and put 500 each, or put $5,000 and spread it up, put 2,500 each. And basically just bet those two to win the Super Bowl. Right. Because you know, they're more than likely going to play in the second round. And I do think they would have a very good chance to win. You know, if you're just playing the odds, like are the Chiefs going to go back to the super bowl again? Would be historic, let alone win it eventually. Like, I remember Brady Belichick losing to Rex Ryan. Right. I remember Brady and Belichick losing to Denver. Now, granted, some of these games, that Rex Ryan game I think was at home. Denver game when Gronk's ankle was messed up, was on the road. So every situation is different. Kansas City is going to host. But I wonder if there's some value there. And basically. But you got to bet them both because you don't know exactly who's going to win that second game. Right. But that's. You basically just take the two of them and you bet them to win the super bowl. Because whoever wins that game, I think you're going to be feeling pretty good. Has a good chance against the Chiefs. And this year, unlike last year, everyone's going to be betting the Chiefs. Right in that situation.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yep. Yeah. The only thing that.
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Unknown Speaker 1
What do you think about that logic?
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Unknown Speaker 3
I don't hate it. I mean, the one. The potential wrench that could get thrown into it is that if the Bengals make the playoffs but. And then, you know, the Bengals play. The Bengals can beat anybody. They'll probably find a way to lose at the end. But they would, they would play the Bills that they get in in that first game. And I see some people, like I've seen on social media, people are like, oh, the Chiefs are sitting their starters because they don't want the Bengals in. Which is asinine because the Bengals would play the Bills. And you, you would rather. If you're the Chiefs, you'd rather play the Bengals and that their defense than the Bill. So you could. I think you would want the Bengals in. To potentially knock out the Bills. So yeah, I mean it's. I am anti Chiefs for this one reason. Well, I'm a Ravens fan. 1. But if they go back to the super bowl, wouldn't. You know, I got a. I talk about the super bowl more than any game and do this show, my podcast, my shows. You know, that's. It's two weeks and every year it's. It's what the Chiefs. Then we get two more weeks of just the right. The Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. I mean, what do you want Me to say so just from a, a freshness, newness, perspective. I, I am rooting for the Chiefs not to get there. But yeah, it seems like they're slowly, they just, they peak at the right time. They. They just know how to figure it out down the stretch. And I think like that offense, I mean Tuney at left tackle has made a difference. They got Hollywood Brown back, which makes their offense a bit more dynamic. I do still think that there's questions in the secondary which I, which could ultimately end up cost them this year because last year their secondary was rock solid. But against Lamar or Josh Allen, that could end up being the difference. And I do think that there's a couple things working in the Bills. The Bills and Ravens I think also are starting to peak as well, which makes the AFC just that much more fascinating because the Bills are getting healthier just across the board. They dealt with some defensive injuries, some key defensive injuries down the stretch and the Ravens pass defense over the past six weeks, top three in the NFL and this is a bottom five unit. Earlier in the year they made some schematic changes and they moved some guys around, put Hamilton back at safety, put a Darius Washington at safety instead of Marcus Williams, kept Humphrey in the slot and the results have been very, very good. So their past defense, which is their biggest weakness, is starting to trend up. So all three of those teams are trending up, but it's the Chiefs. You got, you have to get, you have to get up on them like you, you just can't have it be. You can't have it be a one possession, one possession game. As the Bills know all too well, even if there's 13 seconds left because you know that the Chiefs are just going to find a way if they need to have a final drive, especially at home, that they're going to win that close game. But yeah, if there, if there was a year, it's The Bills or Ravens are very, very good this year. But for. Fortunately for the Chiefs, yeah, they're going to have to play each other.
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Unknown Speaker 1
Well, let's start with the Chiefs because Carson Wentz is getting zero respect, a ten and a half point dog. Now it's not just Carson Wentz, right? I mean there I would guess Travis Kelsey will not have pads on. Chris Jones will not have pads on. I mean he's been banged up. I could see, you know, McDuffie, Karlovsky, who knows, right? I mean it's not like it's going to be Xavier worthy might have pads on but play very limited snaps. This is Must win for Denver, who played in one of the most batshit games I think we'll ever see. Well, I'm so thrown off on my days right now, but whenever they played the Bengals like a week ago, five days ago yesterday, I don't know when that game was bananas but like I do think they're pretty good. And defensively like the Bengals are a tough matchup, but it's Carson Wentz. Sometimes in this spot when you get a guy like that, like there's a pretty big game for Carson Wentz and like I think Andy like not necessarily trying to win or lose the game, but he will take a lot of pride in like Carson Wentz. Like they will. They will have a lot of effort like these four days leading it up to this game. Now this is a kitchen sink game for Denver. It'd be a huge accomplishment to make the playoffs right. With a rookie quarterback. And everyone counted them out when the season started, myself included. And they've. Turns out their defense was actually pretty good under Vance Joseph Bonito. I didn't even know that much about this guy and he's fucking dominated. But in really just their pass rush in general, like I, I don't think anyone would have picked them to lead the league in sacks right. In August. But this is kind of fascinating game. I, I just. Is this just a lock? Denver just beats him like 30 to 10. Or is this thing. You know, I, I think I might take the Carson fighting Carson Wentz's with Andy Reid plus ten and a half.
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Unknown Speaker 3
I would lean that way. I might take it. I, I'm. I just.
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Unknown Speaker 1
How's the number that big? How's it that big?
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, there's a lot of uncircumc. I mean there's some rumors that the Chiefs might even play like some Chris Oladucan, their third string quarterback. Which would make it a little dicey. I mean it's. The Chief's offensive line still does have some issues. So how much of those does Mahomes mask would be my concern against a team that you know is going to send the blitz can get pressure.
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Unknown Speaker 1
But you don't want your backup quarterback to get injured either going into the playoffs.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, historically the. In week 18 actually for that matter, the final two weeks of the regular season. If you bet the teams and this doesn't. This specific game doesn't fit this mold exactly. But if you bet the teams that are eliminated playing for nothing against the teams that have to win, you have done very well. It's like 61, 62% against the spread. Why? Well, a lot of times you're paying a premium to back the team that needs to win. And the other team usually they're still professionals, they're still going to try, still going to try to win. And they can play looser in a way and then the team that needs to win plays tighter. They might be a little bit too conservative, play too close to the best. So there's a lot of things that work in the favor of these underdogs that are eliminated, don't need to win. Like the jets for example against the Dolphins. They fit that the Saints I'm not sure Davy Derek Carr plays this weekend. The Saints like getting two touchdowns against the bucks fit that mold. And then here, yeah, the Chiefs can come in here, they can play loose, nothing to lose. And you know the Broncos, Bonex still a rookie quarterback, a lot of pressure on him. It just comes down to like how many guys do the Chiefs actually sit. But we've seen the Chiefs in this situation, this exact situation four times before back in 2013. Chase Daniel started Chiefs rested all their starters. They were plus 14 and a half against the Chargers who needed to win to get into the playoffs. I assume that was. Yeah, that was Rivers. The Chiefs were up 10 late. They blew a 10 point lead. They missed a field goal to win it. There was actually a penalty on the Chargers that the the NFL to come out after the game and say they messed up and that should have been called Chargers ended up winning in overtime. Chiefs covered 2017. They were plus three at Denver and they won. It was actually Mahomes first start when they sat. Yeah Alex Smith 2020 Henning, Chad Henney was plus seven versus Herbert at the Chargers. That was a meaningless game. They did get blown out in that game. 38, 21. And then last year Blaine Gabbard started plus three and a half at the Chargers who in fairness were starting Easton stick and the Chiefs ended up winning 13 12. So they've covered three of four games all on the road in division in this spot and they should have won three of the four. So it wouldn't shock me if they were just in this game in the fourth quarter. I just, I just don't know to what extent are they going to rest their starters like how many are they going to actually play some of their third string quarterback. But the Chiefs are very professional team and they've been in the spot before so I think that they'll be prepared and they'll put up a fight here. So yeah, I think it's Chiefs or nothing at ten and a half.
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Unknown Speaker 1
Well, if you remember the Mahomes game where he started when he was the backup for Alex Smith, they knew they were going to the playoffs and I think they almost knew they were playing. I think they ended up playing the Titans and Andy gave like Doug Peterson. Maybe Doug was already gone. But Nagy and like his offensive assistant said, you attack the game plan, you start attacking the playoff opponents. All be all attack Mahomes and get ready for this game. They split it up. They don't really even need to do that because they've already. They just played the Texans. Right. They just. They didn't play the Chargers that long ago and they're comfortable playing them. So it's like they don't need to get that far ahead and they got the bye week. So it's like they could just attack this week kind of like a normal week. I just think that's a lot of points in a situation where you, you know, he knows their personnel pretty well. It's. This is a game I got circled. Wouldn't shock me if I'm not saying Denver's going to lose, but I could just see that thing being weird and same thing. You know. The Steelers got some fucking issues. I mean they, they are a completely different team and we've, we talked about it last week. You know, with their defensive injuries, the coverage ability is just no longer there. They just not the same team. And obviously Cincinnati just. I mean their ability on offense is second to none throwing the ball. I mean Burrow's playing out of his mind. I feel like this is an easy one. You just pick Cincinnati. But this also feels kind of classic Pittsburgh. I mean shit, they played on Christmas so they've had a lot of extra rest. Everyone's been shitting on them and rightfully so, but I mean still, I mean they are just everyone's picking them be one and done in the playoffs. Just another Mike Tomlin. Season's kind of worthless. Got a hot start, meant nothing. I wonder if this is game's going to be a little weirder than everyone just thinks Cincinnati is a lock to win this game.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, I mean it's a class. There's been a couple classic Talmud spots though in the past three weeks that just that haven't worked out. This would fit the mold as another one. Joey Porter will be back. That's big for the Steelers. They've really missed him in coverage. I think a key to this game is does Amarius Mims play for the Bengals game? True Game time decision at right tackle and obviously be going up against Watt. Big drop off for the Bengals tackles. If their starters are not in there, it could be trouble for Barrow who's, I mean he's just playing amazing regardless right now. But that could lead to like a few more, just like a few drive killers sacks, drive killing sacks which might end up making the difference. Tough game for me to bet because Bengals games right now, you know that Barrow is just, I mean he's playing at an MVP level. They're going to put up points. They're very difficult to stop. Now the right tackle could make that a little murkier, the right tackle situation but. And you also know their defense isn't very good. So the other team is going to be right there with them. I mean go back to that. The, the Steelers Bengals first meeting, what about a month ago. The Steelers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game. So to me this just feels like who's gonna have the ball last? I mean that's what Bengals games are right now because it's hard to get, it's hard to stop them and it's hard not to score on them. So yeah, this feels like, I don't mind the seals, like a teaser piece because this feels like last team with the ball wins. But Mims at right tackle, that's who I'm watching because if he doesn't play that just could ruin maybe one or two drives for the Bengals and that could be the difference because it's very difficult to rely on their defense right now and count on them to get any stops.
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Unknown Speaker 2
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- [24:01]
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- [24:03]
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- [25:28]
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- [26:41]
T-Mobile Representative
You can count on T Mobile to help keep you connected from big cities to small towns on America's largest 5G network. Switch the T Mobile keep your phone and they'll pay it off up to 800 bucks per line via prepaid card. Learn more@t mobile.com heap and switch up to four lines via virtual prepaid card. Allow 15 days qualifying unlock device credit service port in 90 plus days with device and eligible carrier and timely redemption required. Card has no cash access and expires in six months.
- [27:17]
Jon Stewart
Jon Stewart is back in the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition Podcast Podcast the Daily show podcast has everything you need to stay on top of today's news and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports, and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show Ears edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Unknown Speaker 1
Okay, let's go. I mean, record wise, pretty historic matchup game of the year. The Detroit Lions hosting the Minnesota Vikings. My takeaway halfway through that game was on Monday night was Detroit has no chance in the playoffs with this level of defense. And honestly, at that point, at about halftime, like, I don't see how they can beat Minnesota when they just can't stop anybody in the second half. I mean, your defense can be awful if your offense is dominant, which there is, and then you just get some turnovers, which is obviously a little random. You either need the quarterback to throw you the ball like Purdy did, or create a fumble. And I do think that they have a chance once the game ended. And you realize, okay, I see their path. Offense basically has to score or just, you know, be elite. You're not going to score in every drive like you did against the Niners, against Minnesota, I think it's fair to say. But you still should be able to put up, I would say, 25 to 30 points and then just create a turnover, whether that's Sam Darnold throwing you the ball, forcing a fumble. Somehow it's like that is their path because they're just not going to get stops consistently. They're just not even close to good enough right now. It's not someone's fault. It's not a. I can't blame the defensive coordinator or. Players suck. I mean, they just got a million injuries now. They might get guys back and maybe by, you know, if they can win this game. But I, like, I do see the path of winning this game in. To me, it parallels that Niner game, score a lot of points, create some turnovers. Because if they're not creating turnovers, I see zero chance if Sam Darnold is going to play like the guy we have seen. Like, unless he just has one of his awful games, which he hasn't had in a while, I think it's going to be tough. But that Lions offense, sometimes they score too fast. I mean, that's. They're just so explosive. And then you just put your defense back on the field instead of just slow. And that's where probably Montgomery would help a little bit. Just like 7 yard runs instead of Gibbs gets in the open fields, like, God, he just gained 40 yards. You know, you're like, holy shit. Like, don't throw the ball to Jameson Williams. He might go for like 50. You just need like a 15 yard chunk play. But I think a lot of people are going to take Minnesota. Minnesota plus two and a half. I don't know if I could take Detroit laying the points, but I do see the scenario where Detroit wins this game. It just, they almost just have to be perfect. And that's, that's kind of sad because obviously Minnesota's had a storybook season. But I'd say the same thing for Detroit and you could argue it's even more impressive given the amount of injuries they've had over the last two months to even be in this situation. I mean, how many. There's a pretty big moment this last month, plus for Campbell of like it could have easily turned into an 11 win season or 12 win season and no one would have blamed anybody. But it didn't. And now they're fucking here. And even, even the game against the Niners, that, that was. I'm sure you've seen all these stories coming out the Colts, like how embarrassing all that stuff is. Even the Niners had a shitty season. You watch Fred Warner's injured, playing his ass off. George Kittle, Debo, same with the Lions. Both teams approach that game like this is. This is the NFC championship game.2.0. It's like, it's just kind of refreshing. It's like, no shit, the Lions are good. Like that's how they approach. That's how, that's how the Chiefs approach shit. Like good teams approach things a certain way, win or lose. And I actually earned a lot of respect in that game on Monday night that they did not need. Right. Well, they could have lost it and they still would have been the same situation.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, the only, the only time it would have mattered is if this game ended in a tie. Then that game will ultimately matter. But Dan Campbell. Can you ever see Dan Campbell tying a game? I don't think that's possible.
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Unknown Speaker 1
I wonder too, playing the Niners, who knocked them out last year, I know they were having a bad season. Would he have done the same if they were like at the Giants? Maybe.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Would have.
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Unknown Speaker 1
Maybe it would have been easier. I don't know.
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Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, but it was the. Yeah, I mean, I definitely assumed that they were going to Play everybody. But it was a little, I was a little more on the fence of what they should do just because the injuries have been so catastrophic on the defensive end. It was like, man, you really can't afford. Now luckily they got through the game unscathed but like you cannot afford any more injuries on that defense because yeah, they're not getting any stops unless they're getting turnovers or the other team's missing field goals. I will say, I mean this offense can score against anybody. But they've really dominated this head to head matchup with Flores, Goff in particular over the past two years. So Ben Johnson has gotten the best of Flores. They have, they just have answers to the blitz and some of the things that Flores used. A really interesting chess match there. I'm curious to see if like Flores changes things up because Goff has really good numbers against the Vikings.
- [32:50]
Unknown Speaker 1
Why, why do you think that is? Like the quick game, he gets rid of the ball quick. They got a lot of guys to.
- [32:54]
Unknown Speaker 3
Sit in zone and a really good offensive line. And at the end of the day the Vikings set like a lot of what they do. Like they have a good front, they're good against the run and they're going to show you exotic looks, bring exotic blitzes. Usually going to have a good game plan under Flores. But their secondary isn't overly talented. So like they're beatable if you can, you know, protect and get rid of the ball quick and you have a good scheme and that's what the lines, the lines. Check all those boxes. So I mean if you look back at the game earlier this season, Goff, I mean it was the lines 130, 129. Golf was 22 of 25 for 282 touchdowns. No interceptions. And like those. That's basically like his numbers the two meetings last year. So I'm curious to watch that chess match. What does Flores, does he try to do anything differently here? It's a tough game to bet. I mean you, the total is so high for a divisional game with a lot on the line. It was, it got up to I think 58. You couldn't pay me to bet the under in this game. Now it's super hot. It's down to like 56 and a half. Most of these totals that are this high do go under in the NFL because you just need a lot to go right to go over. You know, you just have a couple long drives that end in field goals or turn. You know, Donald throws a red zone pick. It's it's hard to get into the 60s in the NFL. But I mean, from what I've seen from this Lions offense in particular against the Vikings too, and then the way that this Lions defense is trending, who's getting stops here from now from a side perspective, what determines this? I mean, you hit the nail on the head. Does Darnold. He's going to put the ball in harm's way a couple times a game. Just what he's going to do. He's also going to make some really good throws. But do the. Can the Lions turn him over? Because getting one stop via turnover in this game is. Is massive. And then the other thing is, you know, Campbell, especially now Campbell with his defense, he knows that his defense is not going to get many stops. He was already uber aggressive on fourth downs. I. Why and you have an elite offense. Why not be even more aggressive? Which I expect we saw that last week. So do the lions on it's 4th and 5 at the 18. The lot at the Vikings 18, do they get that and score a touchdown or do they turn it over on downs and probably not get a stop? Like that's. Those are. There's probably going to be like two to three plays that determine this the side and who wins the game and who wins the division ultimately, who gets the number one seed and a buy. And it'll probably be maybe a couple fourth downs for the Lions. Do they get them? So that. And that's where the chess match comes in. What does Johnson have called? What is Flores do in that situation? And then does the two or three balls that Donald puts in harm's way, the Lions come down with one of them or two. If so, they probably win. So I think the line's about right. Really entertaining game and a hell of a way to cap off the regular season. But not sure I'll actually have a wager on it because I it's just a couple fourth downs, a couple Darnold balls probably determine who gets the 1 seed in the NFC. Pretty wild.
- [36:22]
Unknown Speaker 1
Are the. Are the Rams locked into the three?
- [36:25]
Unknown Speaker 3
No, they're not.
- [36:27]
Unknown Speaker 1
Why?
- [36:28]
Unknown Speaker 3
Why.
- [36:28]
Unknown Speaker 1
Why are they punning on this week? Like because. Wouldn't. Because if you're.
- [36:33]
Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah.
- [36:34]
Unknown Speaker 1
You're Tampa, you'd want to play. You'd want Detroit to lose this game, I think.
- [36:38]
Unknown Speaker 3
Right.
- [36:38]
Unknown Speaker 1
Just because their defense so bad like you. Is that who you already beat him? I know that's a weird game, but wouldn't you rather. Wouldn't those two teams rather play Detroit given where they're at right now defensively than Minnesota.
- [36:51]
Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah. I mean, the Rams beat the Vikings. There was a weird spot, like they were on a short week on the road. Yeah. So the Rams can improve their seating, but historically you can go back to 20, 20, 16, I believe. And even last year, McVay doesn't care about seating. So I bet the Seahawks early in the week, assuming that McVay would bench his starters because in the past, even with a chance to improve his seating, he chooses rest in the final week. Let's not risk injury and get ready for our first opponent over improving your seating. And you know, so he just, that's his philosophy. Every coach is different. You know, you can just say like, hey, we're going to have to beat these teams eventually. I just want to make sure that, you know, they're a very star driven team. And the reason I like the Seahawks this week is that like they're going to start Jimmy J's professional, good, you know, professional backup, but they're going to bench other guys and the Rams. If there's one thing the Rams don't have relative to other teams in the league, it's depth. They're not a deep team. A lot of that is because of their draft situation and roster situation. Very top heavy team. You see that in the preseason, like the Rams in the preseason, it can get ugly. So, yeah, the Seahawks, I think I trust McDonald to have them focus. Gino has like, he can make, he can get like $4 million in incentives this week. So I think the Seahawks will show up. And the Rams are basically booting this game. They did it last year too, but the 49ers also booted it and they were both resting starters and they ended up winning. But in 2016 they ended up getting blown out and, and they didn't improve their seating when they could have. So it was the same exact situation. They clinched the division the week before. Could have, could have been the three or the four. Didn't care. So. Yeah, but if they lose, you know, you punt this game, then you're getting. Your path is this is why some Rams fans are upset. Your path is going to be the loser of Detroit, Minnesota and then the winner on the road. So, you know, you're, you have the two teams that are 14 and two right now. That's going to be your path if you lose this game. So. But that's McVay's philosophy is consistent in it and he just values health over anything else. So, yeah, definitely an interesting one, but that the Seahawks have taken a ton of Money they're out to like a six, six and a half point favorite.
- [39:35]
Unknown Speaker 1
So of the two teams that really just need to win to control their own destiny to get in Denver and Tampa, who would you. Red flag. You mentioned the Rizzy getting almost two touchdowns. Tampa's really kind of looks like they're firing on all cylinders. Get a little life. After that devastating L by the Atlanta Falcons. I'd be a little stunned if Tampa were to lose this week. I mean, obviously, I mean, they were two touchdown favorite. But I mean, the Saints, I took.
- [40:05]
Unknown Speaker 3
Some saints plus 14. Now they're, they are bad. I mean, I think the line is inflated like you're paying a premium on the Bucks, to wit, because you know, they need to win and the Saints are bad. But I mean the Saints have been. The Saints were getting 14 in Green Bay with Rattler and their whole team hurt. So like, I think Green Bay is a little better than Tampa. But. And this is a divisional game. Home field isn't. You know, it's not, it's not 20 degrees in Green Bay. Home field is much less here. Especially just in a divisional game in general where, where it could get interesting for. I haven't even looked at news today for the Bucks. I mean, because the Bucks, I shouldn't say they're not any.
- [40:47]
Unknown Speaker 1
Winfield didn't practice again.
- [40:49]
Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, but there's a chance. I mean, like, I haven't checked updated news today, but there's a chance that Camara, he wants to play. There's a chance that Alave, he said he wants to play. So. And then the, the craziest one is if Car plays. So there was a chance that he potentially could have played last week. Like he was practicing, but they said like he wasn't comfortable enough in the pocket. So there's, there's an outside chance that Carr suits up and that if that was the case, you know, if you have. Your offense looks a lot healthier. The Saints have a, a puncher's chance. I mean, they're, they're a loss with Rattler at quarterback or if it's, if it's Haner. So, yeah, I think the latest news I saw is he's gonna, he's gonna try to do like a, a simulated game and there's an outside chance he plays. That's the only way that I could see the Bucks losing. It would be super interesting as a. But I know that the Saints are. They've come out and said that they want to play for their community and with. Due to the. After the tragedy that happened and it's a divisional game and you have your rival that put up 50 on you in New Orleans earlier this year. You can end their season. The Saints will show up. Now, do they have enough talent? I'm not sure. But there's an outside chance that you get Car Camara and a couple other players healthier. And if that was the case, yeah, you're going to want to have 14 points in your pocket, which isn't a lot to cover, even if it is Rattler and, and a really banged up bad Saints team. So. And I, and I look in week 18 and you know, in a, in previous years, back in the day was Week 17. But in the final week of the NFL regular season, there's usually one crazy thing that happens of a team that you just expect, assume is going to win, that needs to win and doesn't. A lot of times it was like the Colt. The Colts would always Jags, Colts would always lose to the Jags. But there's been countless examples. I mean like Vikings, Cardinals. I remember way back in the day, I think that was like on the last play of the game. But there's. I remember the Ravens played the Bengals at home in the final week of the regular season, needed to win and they lost on like the final play. Oh, that was devastating loss and it was just assumed that they were going to win that game. Like weird things happen in the final week. So would I be surprised if the Saints or the Chiefs were tied in the fourth quarter? No.
- [43:51]
Unknown Speaker 1
Charger, Charger, Chargers, Raiders. Does that fall under your theory of a team that has something to play for against a team with nothing?
- [43:57]
Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, I mean the charters are already in, so yeah. Here's the thing with the chart.
- [44:02]
Unknown Speaker 1
They win, they get the five seed and get to play the Texans. Where would they be favored in that game?
- [44:07]
Unknown Speaker 3
Maybe the way that the Texans are going now, the Texans are a rare team that they're locked in and game doesn't matter, but they want to. They say they're going to play their starters but they said they'll see how the game goes. So I have no idea what to expect in that game. So I don't know if that means like half but they need to find their offense without Dell. So I, I don't know in that game, the Chargers though, if you want to put a small bet in, you know that on the Raiders game, the Raiders Chargers game is tied to the Steelers Bengals game because Raiders are hot. Yeah, Raiders are playing hard. But if the Steelers, if the Steelers win, then the Chargers are locked in.
- [44:57]
Unknown Speaker 1
Gotcha.
- [44:58]
Unknown Speaker 3
So you know, if. If you. If there's like, if you wanted to put a correlated parlay and you would bet Steelers money line and Raiders money line, because if the Steelers win, that line's going to come down. Because then I assume, you know, Herbert sits and we don't maybe Harbaugh still start plays the starters, but I assume that they rest. If the Steelers lose, then yeah, the Chargers can would, I'm assuming, play everybody because then you can play the Texans instead of presumably the rate the Ravens, which will put you in a better spot. But yeah, that, that Charters Raiders game, it doesn't really fit the bill because the charters are already in. But Raiders are playing hard. But that game will just basically come down to the result of Pittsburgh Cincinnati on Saturday night.
- [45:46]
Unknown Speaker 1
Okay, Stucky, we got to enjoy it while we got it, man. So sad, but bittersweet because we still got a little football and then the football gets really good and then it just goes away. So this week, like you said, something's going to get. Something crazy is going to happen.
- [46:01]
Unknown Speaker 3
Something weird is going to happen.
- [46:02]
Unknown Speaker 1
I can see car. I got my eye on Carson Wentz. I got. I got my eye on Russell Wilson. I guess. I mean, Pittsburgh winning wouldn't even be that crazy, but I got my own Carson Wentz. I. I could see Andy, you know, he's just. He's feeling himself right now. Just. Just add another pelt to the wall, you know, Beat Carson Wentz knocks out the Broncos. It's weird. It doesn't feel like the Chiefs hate the Broncos like they do, like the Raiders, but I could. I could see them wanting to just. Hey, hey, boys. Let's. Let's pump the brakes a little on you guys and ruin their season.
- [46:33]
Unknown Speaker 3
Yeah, I look, it was. They were plus 14 and a half against Philip Rivers, who needed to win. They get in the playoffs and they should have won that game and ended up losing it overtime. Just one of those other weird things that happened. So wouldn't be shocked. Week 18 always tends to get a little weird. So, yeah, enjoy the football while you can and happy New Year and I'll see you next week, brother.
- [47:03]
Unknown Speaker 1
Yeah, I'll talk to you next week.
- [47:04]
Unknown Speaker 3
We'll get.
- [47:05]
Unknown Speaker 1
We'll dive into the playoffs and some futures we'll buckle up. So have a good weekend, bro. Talk to you soon.
- [47:10]
Unknown Speaker 3
Yep. Happy New Year, everyone. Cheers.
- [47:15]
T-Mobile Representative
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- [47:20]
Unknown Speaker 5
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- [47:53]
Jon Stewart
In action on the Daily show and in your ears with the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. From his hilarious satirical takes on today's politics and entertainment to the unique voices of correspondents and contributors, it's your perfect companion to stay on top of what's happening now. Plus, you'll get special content just for podcast listeners, like in depth interviews and a roundup of the week's top headlines. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.