← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeat Penn State in THRILLING College Football Playoff battle
01:19:57
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- [00:00]
John
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- [00:36]
Jon Stewart
Jon Stewart is back at the Daily show and he's bringing his signature wit and insight straight to your ears with the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. Dive into John's unique take on the biggest topics in politics, entertainment, sports and more. Joined by the sharp voices of the show's correspondence and contributors. And with extended interviews and exclusive weekly headline roundups, you this podcast gives you content you won't find anywhere else. Ready to laugh and stay informed, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:14]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [01:19]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here, And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [01:25]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here too, okay? Each week we'll get together, chat with the sport that we love.
- [01:29]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.
- [01:39]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:48]
John
The volume Foreign what is going on everybody? How are we doing? I'm John. This three and out podcast. I just watched Drew Aller throw an interception with under a minute to go and then Notre Dame get the field goal range. I mean they basically were when he threw the pick and win the game and they punch their ticket to the national championship. So if you're a Notre Dame fan, congratulations. We will do a reaction right off the top. We'll discuss Notre Dame, Marcus Freeman, Riley Leonard. But to me, Drew Aller, who I had been anointing and saying, God, keep an eye on this guy for the draft. We can take that take, roll it up and throw it in the trash. Because I apologize for saying that tonight was I can't. Granted I had you know I took Penn State, but geez Louise. Abdul Carter, though, looks like I would bet on that guy. Same with Tyler Warren. So tough night for James Franklin and Penn State who were up late, but we'll dive into the game. Stucky will join us too. We'll go over gambling. We'll go game by game. Coming up for this playoff weekend, Saturday, Sunday, Monday got a lot of action, I guess. Monday now is moved to Arizona. It doesn't change the matchup or the spread, but other than that, make sure you subscribe to the podcast if you listen on Collins feed and also make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. All of our content is up there as well. So let's dive into some football. Let's start with Marcus Freeman, because when he first got the job and he lost to Marshall, I remember too, he was in a game like an absolute dogfight against Cal. I'm like, I don't know if he's going to make it through his first year. And kind of righted the ship. And obviously since then the recruiting has gone up another level. Last year they were pretty solid, and this year they lose to niu and it felt like, is it happening again? And they clearly got Riley Leonard rolling. Their defense is fantastic. And now a couple months later, they've beaten Georgia and Penn State and are waiting for the winner of Ohio State in Texas. So just an incredible accomplishment. I mean, tonight is about two guys. One guy's 38. And if you watched any of the viral clips of the two of them at press conferences, James Franklin's kind of like a podcaster, never shuts up, always has takes, which I appreciate. And Marcus Freeman was serious as a heart attack, trying not to take the bait, but trying not to be an asshole. But he had much more of a vibe like, I'm here to kick ass and take names. And James, his personality is what it is. He's a recruiter, outgoing personality, but can't win this game. And we talked about it coming in, like, once Marcus Freeman beats Georgia, it's like, that is an enormous win. I don't want to say he's playing with house money, but they're one of their best defensive linemen's injured. Their star running back is playing with a huge brace on his knee. And hell, before the Indiana game, he was battling another injury. And they lose multiple offensive linemen in this game. Their quarterback at one point in time looks like he gets, gets a concussion. Then they bring in the backup who, as someone told me, they're like, you realize he was The Tony the Tiger MVP last year of their bowl game. I'm like, what do you mean? He's like, yeah, he started the bowl game and he was the mvp. So I went back and looked and he threw for like 250 yards and three touchdowns. And then I'm watching him slinging around on that final drive of the first half, I'm like, I kind of hope Riley Leonard comes back in the second half. Leonard throws an awful interception to the defensive end. But they just made plays in their defense. Their past defense was fantastic. Part of that was Drew Aller. But just listen, that's a fantastic win by Notre Dame. They could lose by however many in the national championship. Who gives a shit? I mean, Marcus Freeman, that Marshall loss, that NIU loss, I don't want to say it gets erased, but no one's talking about that anymore. And that NIU loss was going to be really hard for him to shake. And now it feels like this basically erases it all. And to win the way they did, I mean, they're down 10, nothing. And then they come storming back on a 170 run to take the lead 17 to 10. Then Penn State takes the lead 24 to 7. And listen, I got Penn State. I'm like, I'm feeling pretty good here. Penn State got their mojo back, obviously. Penn State blows the coverage. A guy trips wide receiver, makes the safety, miss in space, scores, ties the game. Then Penn State goes three and out with like under three minutes to go. I mean, just a terrible series, God awful series. And Notre Dame gets the ball, they're driving. And then listen, Penn State's pass rush is elite. Abdul Carter, who will get into here in a second. And they just make a couple big plays. They, they forced Notre Dame to punt with under a minute. And then Drew Aller, who to me, beside Marcus Freeman winning this game, to me, the headline for Penn State is James Franklin loses another big game and their quarterback crumbles. This was a guy that I was kind of buying into and I drank the Kool Aid. I'm like, this guy is an ascending talent. Look at what he's done the last couple games. Watch this guy pass. Some of those throws that he made against Oregon, some of the throws that he made against Boise State, and then he realized, yeah, Cinnadome controlled environment and just letting it loose. And then you watch in the night, he's throwing balls off his back foot like he's Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgers. Turns out he's like Jameis Winston and balls are just floating up in the air, they're not even close to his wide receiver. He got bailed out on a pick because of a questionable pass interference call. But he was atrocious. I mean, he really was. And as someone who thought that he had some momentum coming in, like hell. And listen, people in the NFL have been talking about it too. Could he enter the draft? Could he, you know, could he make a late push if they were to win this game and he were to look good, you know, to compete for like a top ten pick? I mean, tonight he looked like a six rounder. He looked awful. And it's one thing like, you're getting pressured, you're getting overwhelmed. The line of scrimmage, he was just not very frenetic in the pocket, refused to set his feet, throwing just off his back foot, floating balls in the air that were just really, really bad. And you talk about a guy, I don't want to say he hurt his stock because he wasn't even declared to come out to the draft. But like, that conversation ended tonight. Go back to school. I do think, you know, he's not a great athlete, right? At one point in time when all the hype was growing, a couple years ago when he was about to be the starter, it was like, we got a Josh Allen. Well, we saw tonight Riley Leonard, who is a much, much better runner of the football. And honestly tonight was a much better thrower. I mean, made some fantastic throws to his tight end, putting it above dbs. But to me, Drew Aller, that, that performance tonight leaves us thinking, everyone that watched it, that's in the NFL, that would just be like, go back to school, man. That's. That's the right move. Go, Go back to school. Work on your craft. Because that interception he threw across his body over the middle of the field, that lost Penn State the game is something that's going to be hard for him to like, walk back on campus. There is no telling it's 24 to 24 that you're no lock to win the game, no guarantee at all. And I got no problem being aggressive, right? You have Tyler Warren's a top 20 pick, Singleton, who does not get the ball enough, number 10. I like Allen, but to me, the ratio of those two guys, it should be like 80% 10, 20% 13. But it feels like they give, they have like some. I don't know if it's in the nil deals that they have to get an equal share of the carries, but it's insane. But Singleton's a starting NFL running back and you know, Singleton a couple times was open and Aller didn't become close to hitting him. There was one that he would have scored early in the game that they had to settle for a field goal that he technically dropped. But it was an atrocious pass. It was, it was like a little, it was a little route to the flat that would have, would have walked right in. If he just lays it on his hands, instead he throws it behind him. He like hits him in the knee. And that interception is just something that it just cannot happen. Not when you've been a multi year starter. Not in a game of this magnitude. Like just eat the ball. Worst case scenario, under no circumstances can you turn it over. Honestly, in that spot, especially on that play where his first read wasn't open, he kind of, he didn't really scramble, but he shuffled his feet, he moved in the pocket. You are much better off just throwing the ball into the dirt or at the guy's feet than putting in harm's way because honestly, he hit the Notre Dame defensive back in stride and that's just something that's going to. That, that'd be really, really hard if you were a die hard Penn State fan to listen one thing to lose the game. Notre Dame's clearly really good. They have a ton of NFL talent. They have a ton of young sophomore and freshman guys that are going to be NFL players. They obviously have a really good coach. They have an excellent defensive coordinator, Al Golden. You might have lost in overtime, but you can't lose it that way. And it's hard. Like I don't necessarily put that individual throw on James Franklin, but the entire performance in the second half, they went into halftime and I thought for 90% of the first half Penn State was kicking the shit out of Notre Dame. They were shoving him around. Honestly, if it wasn't for the Penn State offensive coordinator who everyone just gets on their knees and is just constantly like giving them a reach around. Cold Necky. Cold Necky. Coldecky. So I just hear everyone talking about, I'm like, yeah, Cole Necky, Colnecki, this guy's a great offensive coordinator. I'm watching him tonight, like, what are you doing? Why do you keep insist on passing it when Notre Dame's defensive backfield is actually pretty good and your quarterback, you could tell like through the first couple series, someone needs to talk to this guy on the sideline. Someone needs to get him calmed down. He is way off. He looks rattled and I don't even know why he would be. It's not like he'd even been touched, but he had been really bad. And you're running the ball with ease right down their throat. Keep running the ball. But he kept passing it, passing it, passing it, passing it. Honestly, the first half felt like it should have been 20 to 3. Instead it's 10 to 3. They come out in the second half because Notre Dame gets the ball, goes right down the field, score touchdown and then Penn State comes out and looks like crap. It's like Marcus Freeman, I don't know what he said to the boys at halftime, but whatever he said worked. I don't even know if James Franklin said a word because they came out lifeless. And that's when everything really flipped. And I just listen James Franklin, there's no disputing the talent the guy can accumulate. He can isolate elite players, he can recruit elite players and he can get them to come to Penn State because I mean they might got. I mean Abdul Carter, you could make the argument he should be the if if you're not comfortable with one of these quarterbacks being a top 15 player at his position in the NFL. Like if you don't think Cam Ward or Shador Sanders going to be a top half starter in the NFL and you wanted to take Abdul Carter number one overall, if you're the Tennessee Titans, I could not argue with you. He is basically has the same measurables as Micah Parsons, 6 3, about 240, 245 pounds. His pass rushing ability to get around the edge is elite. And the other thing that he's proven these last couple games, clearly a shoulder or arm is kind of messed up. He's playing in pain and he's playing his ass off. And the athleticism, the violence, his ability to get down the line of scrimmage and make plays, his ability to chase guys downs. He just like there's not much you can do that move, that speed move when you're at that size translates. And if you go he has a lot of similarities to Micah Parsons. This year he was the Big Ten defensive player of the year, All American. Like that's going to work in the NFL. I have a hard time seeing him not be a high end pass rusher in the NFL like that. What he has translates like that 100% works. He should definitely be in the conversation for the number one overall pick. So you're talking about a team that as a guy that's worthy of the number one overall pick. One of the best playmakers in the draft in Warren, an NFL starting running back in Singleton and the downfall of them tonight was the quarterback. Meanwhile, you got a quarterback in Riley Leonard who outplays Aller. And listen, Collins been saying this like, he kind of likes Riley Leonard. I'm like, I don't know. He doesn't pass the ball. And then tonight he just threw some dimes. Obviously, as a runner, he's fantastic. And their star running back Love is battling a knee injury that he hurt last week. So he puts on the big brace, and pregame they're like, yeah, I don't know how much he's going to be able to give him. And even Marcus Freeman before the game is like, he'll give us what he's got. And at first, he was barely playing. In the first half, you're like, yeah, it's probably just not going to have it tonight because he's injured. And then the second half, I don't know if he warmed that thing up. At halftime, he looked much better. Scored a fantastic touchdown where he refused to be denied. He jumped over a guy, which I guess was the sixth time he's done it this year. Now, granted, he used the other leg, but from a talent standpoint, especially as the injury started mounting up for. For Notre Dame, Penn State had dramatically more talent on the field. So James Franklin, when you're the CEO head coach, to come out in the second half, when you had been playing so well in the first half and be so lifeless, like, isn't your. You're the Rah Rah guy. Like, that's. That's your gig. Like, you're the Mike Tomlin, you're the Jim Harbaugh. You're not calling either side of the ball. You just stand there on the sideline looking at the play call, but your headsets up. And Marcus Freeman, who's also, you know, he's not the defense or offensive coordinator, like, fucking rallied the troops at halftime and came out swinging, came out for blood, man, I'm a little amped up because I had Penn State tonight, but, man, the one thing is, when you gamble on a team, you, like, get a much better feel. And obviously, if I knew that Drew Aller was going to look like a scrub, I never would have made that wager. But you talk about a guy that. And I wasn't alone. I was texting around. A lot of people were very interested to watch him tonight, and he crumbled like a cookie. I mean, he just. He completely fell apart even before the throw. That is one of the worst throws you'll see in all of bowl season. Jalen Milroe had a couple in his game against Michigan, but given the stakes, that final throw by Drew Aller is the worst throw of the playoffs so far. You remove that throw, the rest of the game was like a C minus, D plus. And that obviously throw is an F. I mean, it doesn't get any worse. And pretty cool moment that Notre Dame's kicking game was so bad most of the season. And then for the guy to hit the game winner with his dad filming like it was, it was a very entertaining game. And just listen. One knock on Brian Kelly was like, you know, he couldn't win the big game. Couldn't win the big game. And then you get Brian Kelly playing Kirby Smart, who's won multiple national championships, beats him. Then he plays Penn State with, I mean, some of the best players in the country that are all going to get drafted really, really high, beats them. Now, one takeaway I had is even if Penn State had pulled this off, I think the national championship is Friday, which most people think Ohio State's going to win, rightfully so. And obviously if Texas were to upstate Ohio upset Ohio State, it'd be easy to be excited about Texas. I have a hard time seeing Notre Dame beat either one of those teams especially we'll find out. Well, maybe we won't because it's not the pros, it's college football. The health of me. You start missing your left tackle, it's hard. And listen, you got to be football nerd. But even before the season, a guy that was potentially going to be a first round pick, they're starting left tackle, might have been the right tackle. Definitely one of their tackles, like Taurus knee is out for the season. So this is a team that, I mean, you are on some serious backups on the offensive line. But I. Notre Dame's tough, man. They are mentally tough. They're mentally tougher than Penn State, that's for fucking damn sure. I mean, it does not feel like Notre Dame would have blown the coverage with what was on the line with like under five minutes to go. Would not have happened. That they might have given up a completion, but that given play would not have happened. That play kind of symbolizes like the James Franklin run. You're up 24 to 7, only a couple minutes left in the game. You could argue your best unit defense, your all star players are all out on the field, which is weird because they had looked terrible in the second half. Countless drives Notre Dame drove right down their throat. I don't know if Penn State was gassed. I Don't know if they're just the wear and tear from the season, some. Most games Penn State's ever played in the. In the history of their program. Now, granted, it's probably going to be the case for all these teams given it's, you know, the playoffs are so long and, you know, those teams that played in the first round, but that defense, from what they look like early in the game to what they were at the end was just. Even the second half as a whole was a shell of itself. And that you deserve credit if you're Marcus Freeman, like, your guys did not get tired. You had backups who are ready to roll. I mean, hell, your backup quarterback came in and led up easy field goal drive. Honestly, I was kind of nervous. You're going to lead a touchdown drive. And I just think Marcus Freeman to be a guy under 40 to have your team in the national championship, when you have things you have to overcome, like academic requirements, you don't get. You have things that you have to battle in terms of your administration with your. The academic standing of your institution that Kirby Smart doesn't, that Alabama does not, that Ryan Day does not, that the top programs in the country do not have to battle, that you have to. And you've still found a way to put together a team that's fucking good. So congrats to Notre Dame. Very, very cool game. You know, Ohio State, Notre Dame, they've played obviously a couple years ago. That'd be a fun match. I don't think we could lose. I mean, if you're a television network, Notre Dame is kind of like the Dallas Cowboys, you know, of college football. They haven't won a national championship in a long time, but you put them on tv, the needle has moved. A lot of people watch, and obviously Texas and Ohio State are massive brands. So whoever wins this game tomorrow playing Notre Dame, and listen, Notre Dame is going to be an underdog and it's going to be. All the pressure would be on Texas or Ohio State in that game, which is kind of a good spot to be if you're Marcus Freeman. And the reality is, even if you were to get your ass kicked in that game, it's. It feels like a more impressive season than any of the ones that Brian Kelly ever had. And in a weird way, that James Franklin, you get to the Final Four and it feels really good. When you really look at it, it's like, well, he beat SMU at home. Who we all think SMU kind of, you know, sucks for a playoff team. And then you beat Boise State, you know who, listen, we respect Boise State, but how good really was it? And then you lose a game that you were up 24 to 17 late in the fourth quarter. It's like for as awesome as this two week stretch has been for Marcus Freeman, you could say tonight was just as bad for James Franklin. It's just another one. It's just like, oh, can't be Ohio State, can't be Michigan, couldn't beat Oregon. Now he can't be Notre Dame. It's like, well, maybe one day in the semifinals we'll get to play Iowa, maybe we'll get to play Wisconsin, maybe we'll get to play Nebraska. No, probably not. You're going to have to play Georgia, you're going to have to play Notre Dame, you're going to have to play LSU or Alabama, you're going to have to play Texas, you're going to have to play Oregon. You know, you're going to have to play whoever is some elite team, that's who you're going to truly make a run in these playoffs. You might be able to get an easier matchup in the first round. And that's what we've been saying forever about Penn State over the last like 10 years, the BCS or whatever it has been was like nine that they would have made six or seven of the playoffs. Well, cool. And depending on your matchup, you probably would have been one and done in most of them. And if you would have got an easier matchup, you might have won. And then when you played a better team, you would have lost. And the one thing I'd say for Penn State is like, I know you recruit really well, but you are losing some really, really elite players. So your opportunity to. Because if you're James Franklin, just like Marcus Freeman, you won this game, you're in the national championship. Even if you lose, everyone's off your back. You've won three playoff games now you lose Abdul Carter, who if his arm checks out I would say at worst is going third and has a chance to go first or second. You got Tyler Warren, who I would say the latest he goes is like the mid teens. It wouldn't shock me if he went like somewhere 8 to 12 range. So you got two guys that are going to go in the top 12, Singleton, probably be a starter for someone next year, definitely play a lot depending on the team and clearly you got a lot of other guys are going to draft in the mid rounds that is your team going to be better next year? I don't know. I don't know. And with Tyler Warren gone, you're going to depend more on Aller to, like, throw it to the wide receivers. I saw him attempt that tonight and it didn't go that well. Now part of it is, you know what's weird about Penn State? Like, I understand Notre Dame not having the best wide receivers in the country. It's hard. Stanford never did in their heyday either.
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Stuckey
Why?
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John
It's hard to. Academic requirements. It's just, it's difficult. It's a position that you're going to struggle to get into school, and it's reflective of their best teams. Not saying that they can't get an NFL guy or two, but they're never going to have Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase rolling out in their wide receiver room. But like Penn State, what's your excuse? How do you not have, like, your best wide receiver, even if he's not a. Jeremiah Smith is like, yeah, this guy's going to go in the second or third round. Where's that guy? How does that not exist? And I think that really hurt him tonight. Or just even this season is their wide receiver room was like, could be a little better. Which is crazy because they have the best tight end in the country in their running game and clearly their offensive line is awesome. I haven't, I haven't placed a bet in a while and I just, I needed, I needed to get my heart going. I needed a little rush and it was cool until you lose. And then you're like, yeah, that wasn't that cool. Marie's like, why are you screaming in the other room? I'm like, oh, yeah, got a, got a little money on this game. Just not. It's going well, then it's not going well, and then you just want to kick down the fucking door. NFL playoffs. We're talking about the NFL playoffs. You bet we are. Get in on the action. At DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. Scoring touchdowns is a key to winning in the NFL playoffs. And the key to you scoring big is betting on them at DraftKings, the number one place to bet touchdowns. Ready to place your first bet? Try betting on something as simple like a player. To score a Touchdown, go to DraftKings Sportsbook app and make your pick. Here's another reason to watch your favorite players crush it in the playoffs. New customers bet five bucks to get 200 in bonus bets. Instantly score big during the NFL playoffs with the DraftKings Sportsbook. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app, use the code JOHN. That's code JOHN for new customers to get 200 in bonus bets instantly. When you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text hopeny467-369 In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort in Kansas, 21 and over. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void. In Ontario, bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng Co Audio Jon Stewart is.
- [27:32]
Jon Stewart
Back in the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition Podcast. The Daily Show Podcast has everything you need to stay on top of today's news and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show Ears edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [28:08]
John
Foreign.
- [28:12]
Adnan Virk
What'S up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Birkin Demers.
- [28:20]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy oh boy, does Daddy have a lot to say.
- [28:28]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network. We're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [28:37]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what? Tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [28:47]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We had all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL now.
- [28:57]
Jason Demers
You wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkie.
- [29:00]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [29:18]
John
Okay, coming down the home stretch here, Wild Card Weekend, which is which is pretty tasty, though we we got some massive lines, but back at it again with my main man Stuckey from the Action Network. All these lines are presented by DraftKings. This season was kind of tale of the dominant teams and the really, really shitty teams. I mean, the 49ers went 6 and 11 and they're not even in the top 10. I mean, the bottom of the NFL was pretty putrid and clearly the top of the NFL. Lions, Chiefs. I mean I looked before we dive into game by game, the odds to win the super bowl to me after that Vikings game and I know you don't want to overreact to one game, but now they're going to have to go on the road. I think there are five teams that can win it. Clearly the Lions and the Chiefs. You know, basically the lions are basically three to one, Chiefs three and a half to one. Ravens plus 550, Bills six to one, Philly seven to one. Like to me, those are the only five teams that can win the Super Bowl. What say you?
- [30:26]
Stuckey
Yeah, I agree the packers would be interesting to me. But they fade down the stretch and then no Christian Watson, no Jay or Alexander. It kind of limits what they can do. From an upside perspective, I think that Detroit defense is still really vulnerable, especially if they play like a mobile quarterback who doesn't see ghosts like Sam Darnold did. I think they're eventually going to get picked off their defense, but with their offense, home field advantage, they're certainly in the mix. Philly is as well. Their defense is real. They obviously have all the pieces on offense. Really just comes down to Hertz not holding the ball too long, but I think they can go into Detroit and win. And yeah, in the afc, if the chalk holds this weekend, what I assume will be next Sunday night, the final game, divisional round, Bills, Ravens will be an awesome game and the winner of that versus the Chiefs presumably will be an awesome AFC championship game. So yeah, I think you got the five right.
- [31:39]
John
The Bucks any, you know, could get a little frisky. Obviously you play Washington, but then the second game would more than likely be Philly. Is that a good matchup? I know, I saw Winfield's practicing this week. Clearly offensively when they get going and I saw Baker said, you know, the biggest difference this year than last year and obviously last year the passing game was unreal. They're pretty multidimensional. Bucky Irving, talk about this is the reason why you don't draft running backs in the first round. I mean you get high end players in the third and fourth round. So to me, they're a team. I mean, they won a playoff game last year. I know they were playing the Wounded Eagles, but then they went toe to toe with the Lions. Like, they have a lot of guys on their team that should have played in a lot of big games for the last four or five years.
- [32:26]
Stuckey
Yeah, they can be frisky. It's hard for me to see them going, you know, beating Washington, then Philly, then Detroit on the road and then beating the AFC team. But they certainly.
- [32:37]
John
Yeah, not necessarily. Not necessarily a Super bowl run, but I, I could see them throwing a wrench in things. I mean, shit, they almost did last year.
- [32:45]
Stuckey
Yeah, no, for sure. They're. They're. They're not going to be an easy out for anybody. I mean, they went. They beat Philly. I know Philly didn't have, you know, Brown or Smith starting or a couple offensive linemen. They were. Earlier this season, they went to Detroit and won also, which isn't easy to do, although they were outgained by like 200 yards. Detroit just couldn't score in the red zone. But they won't be an easy out. I do like them this weekend against Washington. Daniels has had an amazing year, but still a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the road. Historically, that has not gone well. And if you look, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against quarterbacks who have playoff experience, historically, 33% straight up, 33% against. The spread numbers are not great. That also applies to Sam Donald against Stafford. But I think this Washington team is pretty overrated. I mean, you look what they did down the stretch. I mean, granted, they won 12 games. Daniel was great. But they won. The only playoff team they beat all year was Philly, who was about to blow them out of the water before Hertz got hurt. And then Kenny Pickett came in and then they came back. That's the only playoff team they won all year. They have the lowest strength of schedule in the entire conference. And you look at their past four victories. They beat the Saints with Spencer Rattler by one. They beat the Eagles because Hertz got Hertz. They beat Kenny Pickett on the last play of the game. They beat the Falcons with a rookie quarterback making his first start in overtime on the last play of the game. And then they beat for the seed. They beat Trey Lance and they needed Mariota to come in to really do that. They were down big in that game. This is a team. They won six games. On the final play of the game. On the final play this season, you go Back to the Hail Mary against the Bears. So they were really fortunate all year. It's. It's going to be a tough ask. Especially that Tampa secondary is healthier. The run D has been good. Todd Bowles will probably dial up some blitzes to get the Daniels, create some sacks, some negative plays. I'm not a believer in that Washington defense. They're definitely ahead of schedule with Daniels for sure. Fans have to be excited. But I like Tampa, which I'm surprised. That game is actually not on Monday night, but usually you get the Texans in the Saturday after early afternoon slate. The Bucks is your Monday night special. But I like the Bucks and Baker to get it done. Laying three at home.
- [35:14]
John
Yeah, I totally agree with you there. I mean that's. I think that's got a chance to be maybe one of the worst games of the weekend. And I'm with you on Washington. To me, they had more of a feel like two years ago, that Giants team. It's like how the hell did they. But if I remember correctly, I think that giants team went nine and eight. I mean this team won 12 games. So it's like I think they could be much better next year. Another draft, free agent money and win like 10, you know. Yeah.
- [35:43]
Stuckey
If you get like they need. They have some holes on D they need to plug and then you. Daniels could really use like another bona fide weapon which would go a long way in boosting that offense. Maybe bring in like another veteran offensive lineman. But you look, it's like Ertz has done a ton. But I mean Ertz is. He's ancient at this point. It's basically just McLaurin is like the receiver that you're worried about on that team. So it's amazing what they've done with the amount of talent that they actually have on the roster. So yeah, another draft, couple free agent additions to plug some holes and Washington's definitely going to be an exciting team because you're this ahead of schedule and what do you have quarterback on a rookie contract. Always a major advantage when that rookie is good.
- [36:33]
John
Like I bet if they could. If Dan and Peters, who weren't there at the time when the trade was made. But I think they would like to have sweat. Like, I think they would have just liked to pay him. If they would have had control at the time, they just would have given him like $90 million and had him on this team because that's one thing they're missing. It's like a really good. Now I'd have to like really break down and text around to see how sweat start to finish was this year. But obviously relative to what they have, he's really good. Okay, let's. Last year there was so much momentum and everyone was picking the Browns. It was like, the Browns, the Browns, the Browns. And the Texans are on scholarship in this spot. They make the playoffs, they get this spot. So we knew this was coming a month ago playing the Chargers. And I saw a stat that since 2011, Jim Harbaugh's first year in San Francisco, over the next 15 years or whatever, he has more playoff victories than Mike Tomlin. And obviously he left for like eight years to Michigan. So this guy's success in the playoffs, in the NFL, he hit the ground running with the 49ers. And honestly that first year, people probably don't remember this, but they played Eli Manning, who went on to win a second Super Bowl. Kyle Williams, the GM's kid for the White Sox at the time, like muffed a punt. I mean, the 49ers probably should have won that game. And Alex Smith, I think was like 1:15 or something on third downs and it was, I don't think it went to overtime, but it came down to the final seconds and it was just. He is a great playoff coach. I mean, he is, he is, he's comfortable playing in these games because he plays them normally during the regular season, like just tight, contested defensive battles. But I feel like everyone, you know, you talk about like road playoff games, you know, now Flacco is not as good as Herbert, but going on the road is just. Now, the Texans aren't exactly like Buffalo, you know, or Philly or something, but still, I mean, it's, it's difficult. This team has playoff experience and I think everyone goes, well, the Texans suck. And yeah, relative to the hype, they're not as good. But I kind of like the Texans and the points in this spot. I don't necessarily think they win, but if it's a low scoring game, couldn't you see the Chargers winning like a game winning field goal, like 19 to 17 or something.
- [38:50]
Stuckey
Gotta take the points here. Completely agree with you. I mean, I, I project this like a, like a coin flip. This is, this line is crazy. Like, this is assuming, we're assuming now that the charters are like over four points better than the Texans. A Texan scene that was just plus three and a half in Kansas City a couple weeks ago. I know that they had a couple defensive injuries, Tank Dell got hurt, but this line is crazy. Give me the three points all day, especially With a total like you said, a total of a low total. So points are going to be at a premium. Historically this was a favorite year in the NFL in the regular season. We'll see how it plays out in the playoffs. Historically, wild card weekend's a dog weekend. Just if you go back just to 2017 dogs 52 and 34 against the spread overall 24 and 1267 the wild card round 10, three and two home underdogs past 10 years.
- [39:41]
John
So yeah, I mean look at, look at last year, the Bucks, the Packers. I mean were the Texans an underdog to the Browns in that wild card weekend or were they favored? Maybe it was. It was pick them or something but it was.
- [39:54]
Stuckey
Yeah it was, it was.
- [39:55]
John
Felt like there was a lot of Browns love.
- [39:57]
Stuckey
There was a ton of Browns love. And here's the thing, like yeah, yes. I'm worried about the Texans. The Texans are early down offense was troublesome all year. They had a. Their point differential was zero. They were 31st in success rate on early downs. They're more likely to turn it over than Herbert who never throws picks. The charters have two really good offensive tackles to kind of neutralize that Texans pass rush. Their blitz Chargers, their blitz under Minter has been really good when they use it. Texans struggle with their offensive line to pick up blitzes. But again this number is way too high and this Texans D is still elite. It's still a really, really, really good defense. And I just think this line is outrageous and like you said and by the way the Detroiters, they're. They're good but they're not like one of the elite teams. And here's what they beat on the road this year. Carolina, Denver who by the way Denver's the only playoff team the Chargers beat the entire season. Carolina, Denver, Cleveland, New England, Vegas and Atlanta, only one thought team. And that Atlanta game they were dominated and Kirk Cousins was just throwing the ball to them.
- [41:09]
John
Through four picks.
- [41:10]
Stuckey
Yeah, through four picks and they still almost won the game at one was a pick six. So that's it. That's what they've done on the road. The Chargers have the lowest strength of victory in the entire playoffs. So yeah. And like you said the Texans now it's really funny to see this in the NFL. The everyone is talking about the Texans like they're the Broncos or the Steelers, right. Like the. They're 10.98 10 point underdogs. They have no chance. And this people already talk about the Chargers of the Chiefs. I look at all my mentions like the Charter's gonna be the Chiefs this weekend. Well, as if they don't have to go on the road and beat a team with a really good defense and still a really good quarterback in Shroud, I think Mixon will be able to find some holes here running the ball. You have Nico Collins. Stroud gonna see a lot of zone here. That's generally speaking what he excels against. Like, so the. The Texans could come in here loose house money, play the disrespect card all week. Everyone's writing us off. So, yeah, I think you got to take the three here. There should be a lower scoring game. Two points at a premium.
- [42:15]
John
And the Texans O line issues are up the center of the middle of the field where the Chargers dominant pass rush is the edges. I mean, Khalil Mack's kind of resurrect his career in her. He looks fantastic, but he's not Chris Jones. I mean, he's lining up over tackles. So that is if you told me that they had, you know, some elite. If Aaron Donald was on the Chargers, I'd be like, yeah, I. Stroud might get sacked 10 times. But that's not necessarily the case here. So I'm glad we think alike. This next game almost feels too easy because the Steelers look like shit. Like, there's no dispute. Like, they have looked terrible. Defensive holes everywhere, even in the game that was, you know, in theory, was close. Last week they were down 19 to 7 going into the fourth quarter. George Pickens, you take enough of these flyers on these red flag wide receivers. Yeah, you hit some hall of Famers like Antonio Brown, and then you get some of this. He thinks he's Antonio Brown. He sure doesn't play like it. And let's face it, it got cold. And Russell Wilson has not looked the same. But part of the reason this team dominated is like, it felt like the first couple of months their defense was awesome and now you got guys wide open. They have good defensive linemen, but I don't trust anyone else. And the mojo and even T.J. watt, they interviewed him right before that Bengal game. He's like, they were already in. And he said he was right. He's like, we need to get some momentum, right? We need to get going. And then immediately they're down and they lose, you know, and the Ravens last week were kind of in a tough spot because they needed to win. So they're playing their guys and then Zay Flowers gets hurt on. That sucks because, shit, he's become good. But, man, I mean, I just, I get this A rivalry and all this stuff, but you get one team. These teams are trending in completely different areas and it does feel like there's an implosion factor for the Steelers. This is back to back years, Ducky. I mean, you know this. But they have been enormous underdogs in the first round. Not against the back to back champion, the Chiefs. The next tier of the two teams, the Bills and the Ravens. So if I'm a Steeler fan, I'm like, well, clearly the Chiefs are in a different universe than us, but that next two teams that are clearly two of the best teams in the league that just can't beat the Chiefs. We're not even in their world anymore. So it's like, what the fuck are we doing? I like the Ravens. If you told me this, the final score is like, I don't know, 27 to 10 or something. Like that's, that's what it kind of feels like. It may be close, you know, for like 20 minutes of game time. And then you just watch it. You're like, I don't know if that was actually close.
- [44:55]
Stuckey
Yeah, Steelers fans have to be like, if they get blown out here, like, I think Tomlin's a really good coach, like one of the best rah rah, like motivators in the game. But like, is it time in the Sealers organization? They're really loyal to him and I've.
- [45:10]
John
Been saying that forever. Trade him to the. Trade them to the Bears, reset the franchise.
- [45:13]
Stuckey
This is like sometimes it's just time for a new voice, but if they don't, they don't win this game. They'll be.06 straight up and oh, and six against the spread in their last six playoff games. And it's been a very long time since they've won a playoff game and their seasons all go. It's like a script. They all go the same way. It's like hot, like of late, hot start, fade down the stretch, lose the playoff game. Like that gets tiring. You know, everything inside of me says this game will just weirdly be close just because every Raven Steelers game, I shouldn't say everyone but like 80, 90% of them in the Harbaugh Tomon era are just always close and low scoring. I kind of like the under here as well. Everything on the field as you alluded to, says that Ravens win easily. The market's kind of hinting at that too. But like the Ravens were just seven and a half point favorites at home a couple weeks ago. They did end up covering, but the Steelers were without two starting defensive backs. Joey Porter gets hurt early in that game. Ogan Joby was out. Pickens was out. I like they were decimated by injuries in that game. They're going to be healthier here at least. And there's no Zay Flowers, which is massive. I mean, now you're starting wide receivers are Bateman, Aguilar and Tylenol Wallace. You're going to miss, you're. You're really going to miss Flowers.
- [46:31]
John
And just I will say this, Bateman's looked good this year.
- [46:34]
Stuckey
He has. But he also is benefiting from the weight of Flowers. So, you know, the Ravens would probably go with more two tight end sets here. You still have Henry, you still have Lamar Jackson. But the biggest thing with the Ravens is that their offense has been historically dominant all year. And by the way, they had the hardest schedule. They faced the hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the entire league, and they have a top 10 regular season offense of all time by some metrics this year. The thing that has really made the Ravens dangerous and will make them dangerous in the playoffs is that they fix their defense first 10 weeks of the year, 25th in scoring, 27th in yards allowed. Since week 11, they are number one in the league in almost every defensive category. What did, what happened in week 11? They made a switch at safety. They took Kyle Hamilton, put him back at safety. They put our Darius Washington in at safety. They got rid of Marcus Williams, got rid of their veterans who were just washed. Inserted Humphrey into the slot more basically full time. Changed how they communicate, the defense. Call simplified their scheme a bit as well. Call goes into Roquan. Roquan communicates to Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton makes sure everyone is set, needs to be where they need to be, and everything has been like a smooth operation. Now they've been number one in the league. I got like since that, since week 11, first in scoring, first in yards, first in passing defense, first in yards for play allowed, first in EPA per play. Now they have faced some underwhelming offenses. They place the Giants, the Browns, and even, you know, the Steelers, twice the Texans. Neither of those teams are firing on all cylinders, but they also face the Chargers and the Eagles, and five of those seven teams are in the playoffs. At least it has been boosted a little bit by who they've played. But there's no doubt that the defense is, you know, has gone from a bottom feeder to one of the best in the league. Yeah, they've always been good against the run all year, but now they fixed the issues in the secondary simplified the scheme and that defense now is playing at a championship level. So that's what makes them dangerous. And we'll see. This line is hitting 10, nine and a half. 10. Double digit favorites in the NFL are usually good bets in the playoffs. 13 and five against the spread since 2010. 17 and one straight up. There's usually a reason why an NFL playoff team would be a double digit favorite against another. I just, I, I can't lay, I can't lay 10. But I wouldn't blame anyone for taking the Ravens. Everything you've seen on the field over the past month, the Ravens defensive improvement and just do like what picking shows up too. Does he like just, just decide he doesn't get a couple balls early and then he just is done for the day? Because that's basically their, their only avenue for offense. Tomlin is gonna, they're gonna be fired up for this game. They're gonna try to ugly it up. But I, I kind of like the under. I, I really do believe in the Ravens defensive improvement. I do think that they'll miss Flowers Steelers defense will be healthier this time around. They didn't have Porter against the Ravens in that second meeting. They lost him. They were already on their other corner down to safety. They can't, they couldn't just run what they want to run. So I think this will be a lower scoring game. I don't have a real true feel on the side, but I wouldn't blame anyone for taking the Ravens.
- [49:52]
John
Okay. You mentioned rookie quarterbacks on the road. You know, making their first obviously playoff start. It's, it's challenging no matter what, let alone going to Buffalo, which has got to be on the short list. Not just of home field advantages, but I mean a pretty special place come January. This tough for both. I mean listen, he's, he's battled this season. He's probably just in terms of improvement from start to finish of the year. It's pretty remarkable what Sean Payton has done. Now the Bills, you know, they're not for Sean Payton team. They're really more of a defensive team. I know they just scored 100 points against the Chiefs practice squad, but I mean they hang their hat on defense and pass rush, but this does feel like a spot. Do we look up and like Bo Nix throw several picks? You know, it's one of those things that just unravels and go on to have a fantastic career. And we look back like, remember Bo Nix's first playoff start against, you know, who knows, maybe the Super Bowl Champion Buffalo Bills on the road feels like a big, big challenge. And I think we'd all agree. And I'd say the same for the Chargers. Incredible season for Harbaugh. John Baden. Right. I mean, both their win totals were like five and six or something. I mean, the Chargers won five games last year. Everyone. And I know I'm guilty of this thought the Broncos were going to suck. Now I.
- [51:14]
Stuckey
Part of it's like five and a half. Yeah.
- [51:16]
John
Yeah. Part of it is last year. Now, granted, they got better as the season went on.
- [51:20]
Stuckey
You.
- [51:20]
John
You score 70 points in a game against you. Like, I don't view your defense as great. And then they. Turns out their defense was just elite and bonito turned into like Lawrence Taylor. But I, I feel, I would feel stronger if you told me I had to make the biggest bet of my life who would cover the Bills or the Ravens. I hear what you said and just be like, well, Bills Ray or I mean Raven. Steelers could see divisional matchup. Maybe it is tight. This is a game I would be stunned if the Broncos cover this spread. I like the Bills and this is a big number. It's playoffs, but rookie quarterback, I don't know. I like the Bills here, minus eight and a half.
- [51:58]
Stuckey
Yeah. It's. In a way the Broncos have the path to cover as a dog of over a touchdown in that they have a really good defense, they have a really good offensive line, and they have a really good coach who has thrived as an underdog throughout his career. Those three things, good coach, good offensive line, elite defense will get you a long way as far as just like covering spreads of over 7 in the NFL. And just if you look at these. If you just look at the metrics of these two teams, you have elite Bills offense versus elite Broncos defense. I will call it average Broncos offense versus, if you adjust for opponents, an average ish Bills defense. But the. The biggest difference by far, which probably will end up deciding this game, is the quarterbacks. Bo Nicks had a amazing season. He's improved on a weekly basis.
- [52:58]
John
I didn't realize he threw for 29 touchdowns. Just looking at stats.
- [53:01]
Stuckey
Yeah. Pretty wild. And. But the Broncos have, you know, I mean, how many playoff teams have the Broncos beat if you don't count the Chiefs who Sat Other Source 1. I think the Bucks. That was it.
- [53:15]
John
We don't count the Chiefs.
- [53:16]
Stuckey
Yeah, we're not counting that game. But they are. But they arguably they should have beat the Chiefs.
- [53:20]
John
Yeah.
- [53:21]
Stuckey
In. To be fair.
- [53:23]
John
They match up well against the Chiefs. Right. Because they can Rush the passer. And the Chiefs offensive line is a little iffy.
- [53:27]
Stuckey
Yeah. So that's just the biggest difference is your rookie quarterback making his first start. He's more likely to just make a couple critical mistakes. Rookie quarterbacks against McDermott's defenses, zone heavy, want to take away the explosive play, make you drive down the field and then hope that you eventually make a mistake or they get a negative play. Rookie quarterbacks against McDermott, seven touchdowns, 17 interceptions historically. So that's probably what happens in this game is you're going to. You're not going to be able to completely shut down Allen. He's going to make plays. He's going to make plays at his legs and his arm. And Knicks probably makes a couple catastrophic mistakes as rookies tend to do in their first playoff start, especially on the road. I did play some under here as well. Under 47 historically. Totals of 47 or more in wild card weekend outdoors have been a very, very good bet. I do think the Broncos defense can hold its own here, and I think, look, the Bills aren't going to give up any explosive plays. I think Peyton knows that he's got to just keep this close as long as he can, and I do think that they'll have some success, like just Peyton scheming up things. It's going to be just very methodical and that's going to keep the clock moving. But he's going to play conservative play field position, not, not going to be taking too many risks early. Now, eventually they get down, you're going to have to, which is when it could get out of hand. But I think this total is a bit too high because I don't see the Broncos offense going off. I think their defense will hold its own. I think Peyton will call this game close to the best. And Nicks and that offense can do enough to just keep drives alive. Like you don't want them failing miserably. And then they're just punting three and out, punt, punt, punt. And then they get way behind and they have to come out and chuck, which is then the game could get out of hand. So I like some under there as well. But this game, yeah, I mean, it just comes down to it's Josh Allen versus a rookie quarterback on the road in their first playoff start. It's probably the difference.
- [55:38]
Jon Stewart
Jon Stewart is back in the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. The Daily show podcast has everything you need to stay on top of today's. News and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show. Here's edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [56:18]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Virgin Demers.
- [56:26]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst and boy, oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [56:35]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things to running it that we like, love.
- [56:42]
John
Right?
- [56:43]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [56:53]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [57:03]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts forky.
- [57:06]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus.
- [57:07]
Jon Stewart
Listen.
- [57:08]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [57:24]
John
You know, we haven't talked about this yet, but if we had to do pressure rankings, I would put Sean McDermott on the. I would put Sean McDermott, Sirianni and Lamar. I mean you could, you could convince me of any different order of that group, but I would say, you know, Sean McDermott in one of these games, if they're down, I could just see it getting a little tight, you know, I mean there's just a lot of pressure on him probably as the MVP of the league. Regardless, you know, Lamar's had the best season of his career. But like clearly, you know, John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott have two of the greatest quarterbacks we've seen like not only of their era, but like in my life, just pure talents. And the different last year the Ravens were in the AFC Championship game. Now you lose the Chiefs sometimes like losing to Michael Jordan or Tiger woods, tip your hat. But like you gotta the Bills to me at minimum for this season to be a success, have to win these next two games. And like, like you said, the Broncos have a guy that's, I mean, getting paid $18 million for a reason. He's viewed as one of the best coaches in the league. And I think this year was a pretty big muscle FL for him. So it's like this is a tough little matchup from a coaching perspective. And Vance Joseph in the defense is like this, this. Maybe I'm underestimating. Like, I like the Bills because of the road advantage, but from just a pure coaching advantage, like, Denver's really well coached, you know, and that then that, that really, really matters in the playoffs. It's why, like the Chargers, Texans game, like, I think D'Amico is really good, right? I don't. It's not. This isn't Jim Harbaugh against some guys. Like, how did he make the playoffs? You know, just because he won some shitty division. Like, that's a, that's a good coaching matchup. And so is this Bills. You know, to me that the Bills Bronco game is just. Just a lot of the line. A lot of guys now, you know, listen, Joe Brady's been a stud too. And it's like, that's the Philly thing. Like, so, you know, Sirianni, I would say, at minimum, right, you just got to win these next two games. You lose on the road in the NFC Championship game, people, you know, depending on how it looks, would be mad, but it's like, listen, you go back to the NFC Championship game, you lose the Lions, like, it's been a successful season, but this game, could this game be a little trickier than everyone thinks? Like, everyone's off the packers now. Jordan Love's been banged up. Christian Watson tours acl. He honestly wasn't even that productive this season. Was banged up defensively. Is it safe to say Jeff Halfley upgrade over Joe Barry? Have they been better this season? And like this Packer team and you know, this gets back to like the Sean Payton thing. Like Google the floor's resume. And I know he's had Rogers, but even last year with Jordan Love, like he's one playoff games. This is not like fresh bright lights. Like, I'm overwhelmed here. Like they went into Dallas last year, a 12 win team and beat the shit out of them. So it's like this is not a team and a group of guys, it's all their core guys. And Josh Jacobs is like, you know, from Alabama and he played on that team a couple of years ago with Derek Carr that made the playoffs at the end like they've been in big games. I just, I like Philly. I mean obviously their roster I think you could argue is given his health, is if Jalen's healthy, is the best in the NFL top to bottom. But this is, this is not like an easy first round matchup for being a 2 7.
- [60:47]
Stuckey
Yeah, you, you mentioned it with the, with coaches. Can't stress that enough how important coaches and coordinators are in the playoffs. It like I, I can talk, I can sit here and talk about, okay, this is what this team does. This is there, these are these tendencies, this is how much this team runs own man, blah, blah. But this is the time that you switch that up, right. And you have curveballs and you come out with the high leverage games and that's, that's where you can see these types of things where the coaches can make all the difference and then those high leverage decisions on fourth downs and your, your script in the beginning of games, short yardage. Yep, all those things magnify. So coaching is just absolutely massive. And they have the floor I think is one of the best. Been very, very one of the best as an underdog too against the spread. For what it's worth, I played the packers first half plus three. I think the line is too high in general. I look the Eagles defense is legit like since week after their buy when they put Cooper Dean in the starting lineup. They're both of their rookie cornerbacks have been outstanding. That was the biggest stud weakness last year. Their linebacker room was a weakness last year. Zach Baum came over from the Saints. He's been great. And Fangio has been obviously a massive upgraded defensive coordinator. They have all the pieces on offense. Herz does still hold onto the ball too long which leads to like he has the highest rate of dropbacks that lead to sacks, throwaways or scrambles in the league at 25%. So he does still just hold it a bit too long. That's like kind of what holds their passing offense back a bit. And they face the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. Packers faced a much harder schedule, played in a much tougher division overall as well. But the reason I like first half on the packers plus three at show value in the number but I think number one, the floor is gonna have a good script. Number two, Hertz could come out a little rusty. You know he hasn't played in a while. There's also data out there that suggests there is dip in production in your first game back from a concussion. Now it's been a while but maybe that's not as magnified but we still don't have a ton of data.
- [62:55]
John
Do you think they were screwing with people like did he was he could have been cleared weeks ago or they have. They've just been like is it just a league mandate from my understanding is like you clear it when you clear it. Like he wouldn't have played last week anyway so why would they even care to me is a little concerning that like he was in the protocol. It's one thing maybe you miss a game and clear it the next Monday or Tuesday. But like this carried on for like weeks.
- [63:20]
Stuckey
I agree. Yeah. It is more it's it seems I mean he's got to play but it seems like is there going to be a residual effect and just general rust right now playing for 20 days. You know you see that in week one with quarterbacks after they don't play in the preseason so early on that could be a problem. And then just in general the Eagles all year were slow starters. This is the team they averaged 3.6 points in the first quarter. That's 21st in the NFL. 12.4 in the first half. It's right around average packers are 6.4 in the first quarter, 13.6 in the first half. That's fourth and sixth so packers very good first half offense Eagles not you just take the first two drives of first two drives of the off for the offense of the Eagles all year they're a bottom three offense in terms of EPA from the third drive on top three offense. So they just the script is not working. There's something they haven't been able to figure out and these are two very run heavy teams. Two of the I think in neutral game states the D2 heaviest run offenses in the NFL. What does that mean Especially like in the in the first half fewer possessions. So there might not be that many sessions. So the Eagles start slow couple possessions. Packers have a good script. Hurts a little rusty. I I want that plus three in my pocket. And yeah I am a bit worried about the Green Bay defense.
- [64:47]
John
Packers start slow sometimes too though. I feel like Minnesota game, the Detroit game and then Jordan gets going in the second half. But if the Eagles are starting slow too maybe it's just ten to seven and a half, you know.
- [64:59]
Stuckey
Yeah yeah. And that happened last year too as well. But I trust the lafleur script in this spot. The the where they miss Watson. If you look with and without Watson on the field their explosive play rate goes way down in the passing game and the Running games impacted a little bit too because he just stretches the field. They need Reed to step up and not have drops any dubs to step up and. But they're going to play zone here on defense. Lot of zone. Herz is better. Vers man. I think that they can get him maybe for a turnover or two, especially if he's just a little off early on. And yeah, Alex, no Alexander worries me. If you look at the their splits just against receivers with him, without him and he's been hurt for a lot of the year but with him on the field when he's healthy, like they have a bona fide top corner which they just do not have right now, which is scary going up against Smith and Brown when you already have to worry about Barkley. So I worry about just if the dam breaks and then the Eagles are such good front runners. If they get a lead they can go on like an 8 to 10 minute touchdown drive and then just, just suck. You suck the soul out of the other team with the torch pushes and then it's just like a nine minute touchdown drive and then it's lights out. But I don't mind the packers here. I think this will be a really good game. I don't mind taking the points. I took some first half plus three.
- [66:25]
John
I think the way someone beats Philly in the next three rounds in the way that they don't, you know, win the NFC is you get up on.
- [66:34]
Stuckey
Them and they got a jump rack.
- [66:35]
John
Yeah. And then just force them to crack because like you said, they get a lead. They are the best front running team because they got so much talent and they're so explosive and then they start vibing.
- [66:46]
Stuckey
They only have to get 9 yards for a first down.
- [66:48]
John
You, you get like 14 to 3, especially in these either this week or next week at the Link and they start booing and fucking AJ Brown starts side eyeing people and Sirianni and his cut. It just can get weird. It's to me they have the most weird potential if they get down in a spot. Like even the Bills, if they got down. I've watched the Bills get down a lot of games. I think Sean's mellowed a little bit and clearly like he's not as insecure about the whole situation like he's the boss. I think the people look at like what's Sirianna even doing on the sideline? So I hear you there and you know the one thing with Leflore, I think we saw it last week with Kevin O'Connell and honestly this all year. He treats Sam Darnold like he's Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Just fling it, fling it, fling it, fling it. McVeigh, like they're Shanahan guys. I mean, Kevin O'Connell technically isn't, but like, they're all under that tree. LaFleur is the closest to Kyle of like, I'll run it 40 times if it's working. Like, I'm a run game guy. That's how he got Rogers rolling again. Like, Aaron, get back under center. Let's just control the game. And then the passing game comes from there. And I, you know, he was with Kyle for so long and that, that shit works in the playoffs, especially as a dog, you know, because you can control the game where you just saw like, hey, Kevin, run the ball. Get something easy for Sam. I bet LaFleur and Kyle were watching that. Like, why are you force feeding these passes when your guys are off a little bit? It's like the Houston Rockets when they just kept shooting threes against the warriors. Like just get a layup, you know.
- [68:18]
Stuckey
Like inside the 10. You weren't even trying to run.
- [68:21]
John
I know, but your wire. I haven't worked for Andy Reid, who is like, you know, the steroid version of those guys. You're wired. Like, you're wired and like your true colors. You're a pass guy or a run game guy. And like, that's when all else fails. You lean one way or the other and it's why. So I'm with you. I think this game is going to be very, very interesting. I'm staying away. I just think that I'm with you, though. That number feels a little big, though. It wouldn't shock me if the Eagles win by like 15. I think this. We talked about the Washington Bucks game. I'm going ramps now. Obviously there's this curveball in the world of these fires that are just raging, that are impacting everything and they might have to play the game in Glendale and it just uproots a little bit of their. Just not just home field advantage, but who knows? Maybe guys have had to evacuate some homes or people they know or maybe their girlfriend. Who knows? It's just, it's. It's not an ideal situation, but I think you saw that. You know, listen, I'm pro. Sam Darnold. It can't really be argued what we witnessed. But that first half, like, he's air mailing. He air mailed eight passes and he started like, there were a lot of clips going around. Like guys were Open. He did the seeing ghosts again. He struggled to pull the trigger and it just unraveled. What if the Rams get after him a little bit? I mean, you. They got a good left tackle.
- [69:43]
Stuckey
They have a good young basketball.
- [69:44]
John
That's what I'm saying. So. And we talk coaching, coaching, coaching, coaching. Listen, Kevin, easy guy to like, media loves them. Like, Google how many big games the guy's won in his life. You know, I mean, this is like. I think we just look at him like an equal to all these cats. Like zero career playoff wins last time I checked. So. And now he's a road dog against Sean McVeigh. I mean, a road favorite. Excuse me. Like, I just think people are underestimated. Now listen, the Rams have not looked good when they were playing. Guys, remove the Buffalo game. Offense has been off. But to me, like, this is a classic spot. Like last week, right? Sean McVeigh didn't give a shit about that game. Who do you think they were game planning for during the week of the Seattle game? They were probably breaking down the Lions and the Vikings. Half the staff does one, half the staff does other. And Jimmy just run 10 of our plays all game long. He didn't care about that game, which you could argue whether he should have because now he plays Washington. But we know that's not what Sean does. I just think coaching, coaching, coaching matters a lot. And listen, I'm not acting like Kevin O'Connell and Flores aren't good, but I'm pro Sam Darnold. But if he gets off, the other thing is confidence. It takes a while to build up and it really kind of came for him. It can go away. I don't care what you do. Really quick. So now, like short week, ton of pressure. Everyone's kind of questioning him now. What if you have a bad couple early drives? I could just see that getting weird fast or just goes well. I mean, they clearly have a lot of talent and Sam's made a lot of big plays. But their coach is not going to keep. Like, he is going to be relentless on calling pass plays. That's just what he does.
- [71:25]
Stuckey
Yeah, the Rams secondary worries me a bit here against the Vikings. And like, I feel like I'm selling the Vikings. I'm selling just like low on them after what we saw last week. But I'm with you on the ramps. I bet the Rams now it's a little dicey with way more important things in the world, but you know, the air quality just. And the fire that they could force in the move, which Obviously wouldn't be ideal, but at the end of the day, give me the better quarterback as a home dog in this matchup. Like that's.
- [71:58]
John
It would definitely, it definitely wouldn't be ideal too if they came here because I feel like a lot of people from the general Minnesota region live in Arizona and definitely snowball here. I could see that being like 80% Vikings fans.
- [72:14]
Stuckey
Yep. Yeah, so what? That wouldn't be ideal. But as of right now, they're still planning to play it at SoFi. Just give me the better quarterback. And again, see I mentioned the stat before. First time quarterback. A quarterback making their first time, first playoff start. 33. I think it's 19, 37 and one against quarterbacks of playoff experience hasn't gone well. And Darnold, it looked like he was seeing ghost last week. I mean and you mentioned it, they have a. Now you've won 14 games, but you might have. You have to go on the road, which is crazy on wildcard weekend. But you might have a quarterback and a kicker who are lacking in confidence because Will Reichard really struggled down the stretch. And the Rams kicker, Cardi, who has had his struggles at times, he's now has a ton of confidence. I think he had a 57 and a 58 yarder that could make the difference. But yeah, and you mentioned with McVeigh, some people agree with it, some people don't, but that's what he always does in 2017. He did it last year, did it this year. Doesn't care about the seating in this case. I can see it in a way like Stafford's older down the stretch. He looked a little bit older. And they didn't have a buy since like week five. So I think that the rest, the preparation, they basically had a buy week last week. So you got Stafford and this offense home dog, better quarterback. Yeah, I'm taking it. And then the bike has been good. O'Connell, hell, the season, what he's done with Darnold. But I think the. I think the Rams can get pressure here and, and look, the Vikings, they did win 10 games in a row before that loss of the lines. The only playoff team that they beat during that stretch was the packers by two. That was it during that stretch. And I still think that their secondary is very vulnerable, like just from a talent perspective. And Rams receivers, I think they can. I think I actually think the Rams can run it too. The Vikings have a really good statistical run defense, but that's because most of the year they were up and like they were leading Teams and dictating the game state. And like you saw when they played teams like the Lions, when they weren't up, they Lions ran all over them. So I think Kyron Williams can have enough success here. So yeah, I, I would be very concerned about Darnold, especially if he gets off to a slow start. But even if Darnold's on, like, the Rams can still keep up. Like, look at the Bills game, right? Like, the Rams can still win this in a shootout if they need to. And yeah, they have the rest. The preparation advantage. I am super curious. Like, there's a, there's a lot of matchups here. One thing I should mention back to the Bucks coaching, like Liam, give me Liam Cohen over Cliff Kingsbury too. So like that, that matters too. But here Flores vs. McVeigh is such a fascinating chess match to me because what does Flores do in the first meeting? So the Rams beat the Vikings earlier this year at home in that game. It was a pretty tricky spot for the Vikings. They were on a short week Thursday night, had to go out west. They didn't know Nicole was going to play. Like he was highly questionable. Flores said he was. He didn't think he was going to play. He found he was shocked. So he didn't really have a game plan for Nakuan. Like it was a short week anyway. They didn't blitz as much as they usually do, but they play a ton of zone and then they're going to blitz a lot. Stafford picks up and those receivers did just destroy zone. And I think Stafford this year some matches are 31st against man, the top three against zone. Floors one, you know, one game this year. And Jordan Love has kind of similar splits too. Floors won one of the games against the packers this year, went just against everything they've been doing all year and played went man heavy. So I'm very curious to see like the game plan that McVeigh has. He always has like a really good wrinkle, you know, like just something you wouldn't expect on, on the offense and how what they're going to run and then what does Flores do? Like, that's such a cool chess match to me. But to boil it down to most simplified terms, which sometimes you just have to do better quarterback, home dog. Assuming they're playing at home.
- [76:17]
John
Give me, you know, two years ago when they lost the Giants in this round, they had won 13 games. I just had to google it because I was like, they win 12, they went 13 and four. This year they have 14 wins. If you lose twice in three years, in the first round, when you win a total of 27 games. Like, I do think we. Kevin O'Connell's good, but I also thought that. And listen, it might not have directly come from him, but for a story to come out in one of the biggest days of his coaching career that, like, teams might trade for him, clearly he wants to get paid. Like, it was kind of parcels, Ian. It's like, bro, let's pump the brakes. You're going to get paid this off season. If I was Dan Campbell, I would have been licking my lips. It's like, these players aren't dumb. Like, they know what's going on. It's like, okay, you tell all these players, focus, focus, focus. Meanwhile, you got fucking Glazer talking about, like, guys are going to trade. Essentially, like, It's, I make 7 million, it's time to pay me, like, 15. It's like, oh. I was like, oh, that's not a good sign. And that's kind of classic football. You can do that if you're. If you're Andy Reid or something. Like, Kevin, let's. Let's slow down. And then you get your ass kicked against Aaron Glenn. I mean, come on, man.
- [77:30]
Stuckey
Very, very interesting timing on those reports.
- [77:33]
John
Yeah. To me, I. I didn't like that at all. And if I was a Vikings fan, and I know they're not as like inside baseball and at all, but it's pretty clear, you know, who wants to. Why that report comes out, right? Especially when it comes out, you know, Minnesota hasn't talked to him about a contract extension. It's like, well, let's. Let's win a real game. You win a lot of regular season games. Like, that's cool. Like, Mike McDaniels won some regular season games. He's got bounced in the first round a couple times. Like, are you getting bounced in the first round a couple times? So I think this is a big moment for Kevin O'Connell, who is like, now, again, I'm not anti Kevin O'Connell, but he, you know, Brandon Staley was this really, really quick, then everyone jumped off him. McDaniel was this for a while. Kevin O'Connell is that new version now, again, 13, 14 wins. Those are great regular seasons. You start winning a real game, and this is a real game.
- [78:26]
Stuckey
Yeah, I agree with you. That makes the playoffs so fascinating. And some of it's not fair. And some of it's fair, right?
- [78:32]
John
For sure.
- [78:33]
Stuckey
The world you live in in the NFL with one and dones. And then questions start getting asked by the way, we, I'm curious to get your thoughts on this. We debated this on my NFL podcast this week. If you had we're just going to take the nfc, this year's NFC and that you have to get through the NFC and then you have to play the asc. Your, your goal is to win a Super Bowl. All of the rosters are the same. All of the coaching stats are the same. There's no advantage. You have the same scheme that every other player is the same. Like, so if you were like playing on Madden, you would have the same players except quarterback. And you can choose which quarterback for your team in the NFC that you would take that's currently in the playoffs. Which quarterback are you taking? If your goal is to win a Super bowl this year and to get through the playoffs this year and then the beat, you know, either presumably the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens. Which NFC quarterback are you rolling with?
- [79:35]
John
It's going to sound crazy because I probably talk some shit about this guy, but I might take Jalen hurts just because he can move. You know, I almost said Jaden. I just the Jared Goff thing. If my, what if my offensive line's not great and who's my coach all of a sudden he can't move. Like he's, he's pretty predicate like his success predicated on some protection. Right.
- [79:53]
Stuckey
And yeah. And Ben Johnson.
- [79:56]
John
Yeah. So I, oh, Stafford. But like you said, I mean the version of Stafford a couple of years ago, he's looked a little old.
- [80:03]
Stuckey
So he can't move.
- [80:04]
John
No, I, I, so I, that's tough. It's, it's hard to rank the NFC quarterbacks because like Jordan loves like this raw big time talent who we've seen have some moments, but he can also look like crap. It's tough.
- [80:16]
Stuckey
I consider Love because just be if they're, they're. You could make a case for so many of them. But I wouldn't take Daniels just because he's a rookie. But like you could.
- [80:26]
John
I would need, I would need mobility in this exercise.
- [80:29]
Stuckey
Yeah. You could argue Baker, you could argue many. I think I would take Love. I think I might take Love because I want to win the super bowl and I need to like beat the Chiefs or the Ravens. The Bills and all the rosters are the same in the nfc. Love's upside, I know is really high like when he's on and clicking. But yeah, there was no like this is the clear. The right answer in the nfc.
- [80:53]
John
AFC is in a different universe.
- [80:55]
Stuckey
Yeah. From a quarterback perspective for sure.
- [80:58]
John
I, I think the, you even have.
- [81:00]
Stuckey
Herbert, like even the, you have the top tier, second tier and then even the next tier with, you know, Herbert and Stroud.
- [81:09]
John
You would take Herbert over every guy in the NFC without hesitation.
- [81:12]
Stuckey
Yes. You know, absolutely.
- [81:15]
John
The one thing I got a two things were pretty cool last weekend. Obviously Bryce Young, that's just what a cool story. I mean he looked, I mean he looked like a UFL player. And then to come back in after Andy Dalton gets in the car accident and not just look like a real NFL player, like be kind of a fun, like ah, they might have something there. I do think Baker a no look.
- [81:34]
Stuckey
Throw for the guy who looked like he had zero confidence, like hated his life being out there to then in one season then be throwing a no look throw like taking leadership, yelling at guys, having fun, smiling. Yeah, it's, it was definitely encouraging. So it was nice to see for.
- [81:53]
John
A guy we could all be jaded and negative. You know, the longer you, you work in this and just it's easier to be, you know, down on guys. But that was just an easy story to kind of make you smile and easy got a root for. I, I do think there are some similarities. It's way different but in terms of like what Baker has turned into these last two years. I don't know if he's getting married, having a child. Clearly he's, you know, it's hard to tell like his body, but I think he's talking about slim down a little bit because he moves dramatically better. He's always had a really explosive arm. I mean he's just a really good player. You know, he's not in the Josh Allen, Lamar Mahomes, but he for sure to me is a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. And I think he's a really good player.
- [82:35]
Stuckey
Yeah, he just has to avoid the catastrophic mistakes which he can at times just throw a ball in wayward's way a bit too much. But yeah, his mobility and then like Liam Cohen has been amazing. And you, you do need help as a quarterback and you can't just have a one dimensional offense. They couldn't run the ball lick and now they have a dynamic rushing attack which helps everything else out. So yeah, that Baker's been fun to watch this year and his, his scrambling has been, has been great. But yeah, Young, there's, there's definitely some, some promise there now for sure for Carolina in the future where it looked like it was, it was dead.
- [83:16]
John
I mean the Bucks are just well run, aren't they? I mean they draft well. They just, they just run a good operation. Obviously it's, you know, now starts with Baker. So. Okay, let's, let's have an exciting weekend and I hope at least like, I don't know, 75% of these games are good because we're going to get a couple blowouts and some duds in the second half, but hopefully some of them are, you know, really good. Maybe we even get like a legendary, you know, just game of the year.
- [83:43]
Stuckey
But yeah, I'm hoping at least 4 really good. Be awesome if there's 5 that are really good.
- [83:50]
John
The Monday night game recently has been a dude, right? Dak blew out Tom Brady last year, the Bucks blew out the Eagles. So hopefully I wouldn't mind a couple of years ago. Remember the Rams kick Kingsbury and Kyler's ass. Yeah, yeah, I wouldn't mind a good Monday night game.
- [84:05]
Stuckey
Yeah, that would be nice. Especially since they're making those teams play on a short week. Anyway, the. Yeah, just keep in mind, historically doesn't mean it's predictive. But this weekend, if you're listening, this weekend, generally a dog weekend. That's what wild card weekend has been. If you're, if you're looking to bet and home dog weekend specifically. I happen to like both home dogs this week. Charger, Texans and, and Rams.
- [84:35]
John
Okay, snucky, I'll talk to you next week. We'll dive into the divisional round. We'll dive into. We'll know who's playing in the national championship. So be an exciting, I mean, divisional round, widely considered the best weekend in, in all of football and obviously the national championship is. We're recording this on Thursday before the games has a chance to be, I mean, pretty incredible matchup. So fired up for some football. Talk to you soon, buddy.
- [84:56]
Stuckey
You bet. Have a good weekend, brother.
- [85:00]
John
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- [86:15]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Ad nan ver to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers.
- [86:20]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here, And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
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Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
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Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too, but we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le Table.
- [86:40]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Verkin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.