3 & Out - Pittsburgh Steelers should've traded T.J. Watt BEFORE the 2025 NFL Draft

Summary

Summary of "3 & Out - Pittsburgh Steelers should've traded T.J. Watt BEFORE the 2025 NFL Draft"

Released on July 13, 2025, "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" hosted by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume delves deep into the Pittsburgh Steelers' strategic decisions surrounding their star player, T.J. Watt. This episode not only critiques the Steelers' handling of Watt but also explores broader NFL trade dynamics, player valuations, and organizational strategies.

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1. Introduction to the Steelers and T.J. Watt's Situation

The episode opens with co-host John Middlekauff expressing his dedication as a Steelers fan, attending multiple games annually. He sets the stage by discussing the recent departure of Mika (likely a pseudonym or misstatement for a Steelers player) and the implications it has on the team's dynamics.

Notable Quote:

"[00:34] John Middlekauff: The volume. What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? I just slammed a turkey sandwich."

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2. Analyzing the Case for Trading T.J. Watt

Middlekauff delves into why the Steelers should have considered trading T.J. Watt before the 2025 NFL Draft. He underscores Watt's leadership and intangible value to the team but questions the financial sustainability and long-term fit within the Steelers' roster.

Key Points:

• Trade Value Assessment: Middlekauff speculates that Watt's trade value could be a late first-round pick combined with another player, potentially a defensive lineman, if trading to teams like the Eagles.

• Contract Considerations: The discussion touches on Watt's contract status, highlighting the complexities of renegotiations and the financial demands Watt might place on a new team.

• Comparisons with Other Players: Middlekauff draws parallels between Watt and Khalil Mack, emphasizing Mack's dominance and potential Hall of Fame trajectory, questioning if trading Watt is as advantageous given his standing.

Notable Quotes:

"[07:45] John Middlekauff: I thought if you're going to trade your best pass rusher, you're going to want one of their defensive linemen."

"[15:30] Middlekauff: I would say as I'm recording this right now, it's about 90 plus percent that TJ Watt is not traded."

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3. The Intangible Value of T.J. Watt

The conversation shifts to the non-statistical contributions of Watt, such as leadership and team morale. Middlekauff emphasizes that Watt's presence on the field goes beyond mere numbers, offering strategic advantages that are hard to quantify.

Key Points:

• Leadership: Watt is portrayed as a cornerstone of the Steelers' defense, providing guidance and motivation to his teammates.

• Impact on Team Culture: His work ethic and commitment set a standard within the locker room, fostering a competitive and disciplined environment.

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4. Listener Mailbag: Broader NFL Discussions

Middlekauff addresses several listener questions, expanding the conversation to other NFL topics:

• Player Valuations: Analysis of players like Dylan Gabriel and their draft prospects, discussing physical attributes versus on-field performance.

• Ownership and Player Investments: Insights into how NFL owners may influence or facilitate players' off-field investments and the regulatory challenges surrounding these relationships.

• Scouting Processes: An exploration of how scouts evaluate talent, the specialization within scouting roles, and the importance of former players transitioning into scouting positions.

Notable Quote:

"[20:15] Middlekauff: You have 85 scholarships now with NIL. That happens right now I'd have to look at how good his son was."

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5. The Future of the Steelers and NFL Salary Cap Dynamics

A critical discussion revolves around the sustainability of the NFL salary cap, especially in the context of record-breaking deals and the assumption that the cap will continuously rise. Middlekauff posits that while the NFL appears confident in maintaining the salary cap's growth, external economic factors could pose significant risks.

Key Points:

• Salary Cap Projections: Concerns about whether current salary cap trends are maintainable in the long term.

• Economic Dependencies: The NFL's financial stability is closely tied to broadcasting deals and global markets, making it resilient but not impervious to economic downturns.

• Strategic Planning for GMs: Advising general managers to consider potential salary cap plateaus and prepare accordingly to avoid financial constraints in future seasons.

Notable Quote:

"[28:50] Middlekauff: If you were the Steelers, you would want the intangible leadership value. And that's something obviously the Steelers really value."

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6. Concluding Thoughts and Final Insights

Middlekauff wraps up the episode by reflecting on the complexity of trading a player like T.J. Watt. While acknowledging his immense value, he questions whether the potential gains from a trade would outweigh the loss of Watt's on-field prowess and leadership.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade Complexity: Trading a star player involves balancing immediate financial benefits against long-term team stability and performance.

• Organizational Loyalty: The Steelers' history of maintaining player rosters suggests a possible reluctance to part ways with key talent unless absolutely necessary.

Notable Quote:

"[35:20] Middlekauff: But ultimately, like, quote unquote, splurging. Like, I'm not, I guess houses I'm into, like, I would try to buy like buildings and invest in companies and do stuff like that."

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7. Conclusion

This episode of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" offers an in-depth analysis of the Pittsburgh Steelers' potential trade of T.J. Watt, intertwining fan perspectives, player valuations, and broader NFL economic considerations. Middlekauff provides a balanced view, weighing the tangible and intangible factors that influence such significant team decisions.

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Note: The timestamps provided are approximate and based on the transcript segment where relevant discussions occur.

Transcript

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[John Middlekauff]

The volume. What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? I just slammed a turkey sandwich. And. And I said, you know what? Do a weekend mailbag. We obviously haven't done as many podcasts over the last couple weeks. I'm feeling antsy. My DMs at John Middlekopf. That is how you get in on the mailbag, you just DM my Instagram, just my name, two Fs. Fire in those DMs. Get your questions answered here on the show and that's what we're going to do. We're not going to, not going to go too crazy long, but I'll just bang out maybe 10ish questions here. And like I said, you guys know the drill. Firing those dms. Questions answered here on the show. Middle of summer, hopefully you guys are enjoying it, staying semi cool. It's extremely hot where I'm at, but hopefully you're in a pool or a lake somewhere and enjoying life. Start with tj. Big Steeler fan. I go to at least three Steeler games a year. I like that dedication. It was time for Mika to go and I didn't think they'd actually do it. There was a lot of times big plays were given up and everyone is just standing looking at him or a missed tackle from him and he's leading the pack, chasing Derek Henry down the sideline. I trust Tomlin. If he's selling, he knows more than we do. I would tend to agree. They've done a pretty good job selling on players. I would say that the Steelers don't typically sell on a guy and have that guy at the highest level come back and bite them in the ass. They have a pretty good track record. Especially recently Antonio Brown, again, I'm not comparing Minka to Antonio Brown. You know, personality wise, Antonio Brown was a better player. Weird situation. But even recently, again, these guys weren't as good as Minka. But Chase Claypool, George Pickens, they get, they got a pretty good idea. And listen, you, if you watch every single snap of the Steelers, you know him better than me. A lot of you guys push back. When I reacted to the trade, you know, I don't break down safety film. So in a, in a, especially with a player like that, I immediately just text a couple buddies who are dialed in in the league and I say, what do you think? They said? Listen, Mika, still a really, really good player, but the safety position is complicated. It's kind of like the new running back in. He's going to need a new contract. Are you going to pay him again? He's not that old, so he's going to want a lot of money. It's clearly a position I would call safety. The new running back, you could argue it's been a lot like the running back over the last 10ish years. It's a, it's not valued like it was. I mean, when I was a kid, star safeties were everywhere. Hell, I mean, honestly, up until the 2000s, the games changed a little bit. Obviously corner, which has always been valued, but is in like a different stratosphere than safety. Here's TJ's question. With that being said question, what do you think the actual trade value for TJ Watt is? I'm thinking a late first round pick and a player. I know the Eagles are interested. What do you think we could get? It's a great question. Well, if you were to trade them, which I think at this point would be shocking giving given that they're all in with the Roger situation, trading for dk, but you could never say never. It's the NFL. I don't know what the Eagles would have to give you back. Like you said, a player. Like who's the player? Right. Because if you're going to trade your best pass rusher, you're going to want one of their defensive linemen. They're not giving you Jalen Carter, they give you Jordan Davis. I mean that's, that's not a apple for apple trade. So if they gave you a first rounder and Jordan Davis, who needs to get paid here in a year and again, paid is all relative. I think sometimes we throw that out. This guy needs to get paid. Well, yeah, you know, there's a big difference between just because his contract's ending, he needs a new contract. Like what is the number? And again, I'm just using this as an example. You know, I think if you were going to trade tj, we talked about this with Miles Garrett and Max Crosby. When you do it before the draft, there's a lot of value there. Right. And for a team, even if you're, you know, if you were to trade Miles Garrett or Max Crosby, both those teams would big time be waving. We're waving the white flag this upcoming year. I remember when Khalil Mack was traded, it was after the draft, right before the season and they got a couple first round picks. To me, the Steelers, one, I don't think his value is two first round picks given that he's 30 years old. But like the Steelers would want a player back. So I'm with you. Would they get, you know, if the Eagles were willing, a first round pick and a player again, I think if you're the Steelers, you would, you would want it to be a defensive lineman. I'm not comparing Brandon, I you to TJ Watt, but the 49ers chose not to trade Brandon. IUK last year before the draft when they had good offers on the table and then they waited and then the contract negotiation got weird and they're like, okay, we'll trade you. But the big thing with them to trade him was like, we need a wide receiver back because like the Steelers, we're trying to win. This is not like when the Jags traded Jalen Ramsey. And some of these teams that trade, quote unquote, star big name guys, like they're punting on the season. Steelers would not be. So you would have to get like the Amari Cooper thing made a lot of sense. The problem was Brandon, you like, I'm not going to sign there. And that's where these situations kind of become like an NBA trade. Because if I'm trading you a first round pick and a player, or let's even say a first round pick and a third round pick or something, I'm going to want TJ Watt to sign when I trade him. Part of the Khalil Mack again, who was way younger at the time, when they traded him, it was, it was his first contract, you know, first contract extension post his rookie deal. This would be TJ's whatever, third contract, which again, they just gave DK Metcalf his third contract. Right? Seattle drafted them, then they extended them and then they're like, yeah, we're not into giving you a third contract. And in fairness, John Schneider's done that with a lot of guys. Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, like you just get to that third contract. It's why I do understand it's kind of a weird spot for the Steelers, but if I was a betting man right now, I would say It'd be about 90 plus percent that TJ Watt is not traded. Now you get to a point where if you're just not willing to give him money, he's like, I'm not showing up. This. Would someone blow you away? Would that team be comfortable giving him a ton of money? Because if you're him, is this, is this like a. What are we looking for? Are we looking for like Miles Garrett, Max Crosby, I need $100 million. Would he take like a two year extension at like $60 million if you guaranteed every penny? These situations get complicated with older players in the NFL because of the injury concerns. But as another guy told me in the league, like a huge part of what TJ brings to the table is the intangible leadership value. And that's, that's something obviously the Steelers really value. Not a Charger or Raider fan, but have a ton of respect for Khalil Mack. He has been one of the most dominant guys this position since day one and is still going strong. If he retired tomorrow, do you think he would be a first? You think he would be a Hall of Famer? If so, what about a first ballot hall of Famer? I actually had to look this up just because you gain like the Pro Bowls, you know certain guys drop out. So if you have nine Pro Bowls, which Khalil does, maybe seven of those were no doubt about it. Some of those are guys drop out. To me all pros tell a pretty good story. And he was. He's a five time all pro I think four times first team one time second team, like that's pretty good. I think Patrick Willis who had a shorter career is like five or six time all pro. So when Cleo Mack was on in his prime, still really good two years ago he had 17 sacks though I think in one game he had six. Was the Denver Broncos I first ballot again I think we have to like to me when you say first ballot hall of Famer I think like Aaron Donald, Peyton Manning, you know Khalil Mack to me hall of Famer. I have no problem putting him in the hall of Fame but you got to work a little bit for it. So to me he would his career is still going. I mean he could easily have a double digit sack year. The Chargers could be in the playoffs and keep adding to that resume. But I would say as I'm recording this right now, he's not a first ballot hall of Famer. Dylan Gabriel this is from Chris, Although I agree with your take, is it really hard to believe that the Browns wanted him in the third round? Second all time in passing yards, second all time in passing TDs, 73% completion percentage, quick release, accurate. He played a bet in a better conference and was sacked half as much and objectively had a better season than Shador. If you don't believe me, he finished third in the Heisman while Shador finished eighth. He's going to be an asset in the film room and whatever the starter throws a pick, nobody is going to call his name. He knows where to put the ball. He's just not six five, 230 pounds. The more I think about it, Gabriel is a perfect backup and could very well have a 10 year career. I just have a hard time seeing many teams if any teams would have drafted him like part listen he played college football for a long long time. So you giving me those stats. Two things can be true. Dylan Gabriel's a good player. No one's ever been like this guy can't play. He can fucking play. Played at Oklahoma, played at Oregon. Like this guy's not some slouch. But there is a big difference between like are you a good college prospect? He's really small. I mean really small. 511, 205. I think he plays more like 190 pounds. He's not a big time athlete, right? So he's not really running around. You know, unless your offensive lineman is the Eagles, you're going to be under siege in the NFL. And when you're small you get crushed. And he does not have a great arm. So I'm not anti the player but I think as a third round pick I just, I just have a hard time envisioning that they were competing. I, I stick by my theory. They really like the guy and probably in a normal draft they would have taken him in the fourth or the fifth round but Jimmy Haslam is hanging over their shoulders. Shador Sanders is falling. You know this guy's kind of a star fucker and want Shador on the, on the team because it would make no sense to draft him in the third round and draft the other guy in the fifth round. So I think if Shador Sanders did not exist in this draft or had been drafted, let's say in the second round, I think the Browns would have just taken him in the fourth or fifth round. I know a lot of people that thought like there was a chance he was going to go undrafted. Haven't wrote you in a while but had a thought. I'm wondering if there are any regulations on NFL owners having investment relationships with their players. I've heard a lot about Curry and KD accuring great accruing great investments while playing for a team in the Bay Area. Whether that's facilitated by the owner or just from the being in the proximity to awesome startup opportunities. I'm wondering how much of this occurs in the NFL. Example that come to mind would be if Brady and Tampa with the Glazers and Stafford in LA with the Kronky. Thanks for the show. It definitely happens. You would be naive to think that these guys don't take care of their people. I'll give you some examples. I remember early on in like Kittle's career he was on this company in the Bay Area is called Zenni Eyewear. They're the official eyewear of the 49ers and by like his second year he was becoming a star and he was on billboards all over the place. Brock Purdy has a massive Toyota dealership. Google the 49ers in Toyota. I'm just. You could probably use these any different team in the NFL. So how do you regulate against that? It's definitely illegal to pay players through different avenues beside the salary cap. I can't go, hey, I can give you $20 million per year, but I can give you another $20 million off the field. Like that. We will facilitate. You would get in trouble for that. That is against the rules. But it definitely happens in indirect ways that you use your relationships, your partnerships to facilitate deals. And maybe they take it, maybe you. It's almost like a connection, you know, like a group text. Hey, John, I wanted to introduce you to this guy. He's in the podcast business. He's in ad sales. Right. I'm sure many people listening do this stuff all the time. So I think it is very illegal, but it happens all the time. Just like a lot of things in a lot of our industries. Yeah, that. That is not okay. Yet. It happens. Like, welcome to business. That's why we love capitalism, I think. What did Peter Guber's line, There are no rules, just break them at your own peril. I got a couple questions for the pod. Can you go through the process of scouting? Like, how do you know. Like, how do you know how to scout or what to look for? Do scouts specialize in different areas? Completely unrelated question. What is the difference between a normal running back, a halfback, and a fullback? Well, you learn. I mean, I. I learned when I went to Fresno State. I learned what to look for, what position, specific stuff to look for. It's a. It's a learned skill. Obviously, if you're a former player, if you. I guess that would be the only way that you know from game planning to strengths and weaknesses, you'd have a pretty good idea. But even if you were a former player who transitions into scouting, that organization teaches you, onboards you, helps you understand exactly what they look for in their scheme because it varies team to team. Some teams obviously have a more, I guess, liberal idea of what they're looking for in terms of, like, we'll do anything. And some teams are very, very specific, but you're taught. And the best teams teach their young scouts what to look for. But to get that job, if you're not a former player, you definitely would. When I got. When I interviewed for the Eagles, they gave me like three or four players to evaluate and I wrote up, I would not known how to do that. If I just Came from college and just did that. I wouldn't have got the job, but I had a good, good base understanding. Even though I'd never really evaluate. I'd never evaluated NFL players from working in college, college recruiting, watching the. My own players at Fresno State, like guys that were going to play in the NFL, undrafted free agents. And then the guys we were playing, we played a lot of NFL guys. So you kind of have a base knowledge and then you learn from there. I think I would say a running back and a halfback. And again, Belichick might call me an idiot. They're the same thing. A fullback is just the, the up back behind the quarterback. He doesn't really exist anymore. I mean most teams have just a one running back set. Now the fullback's basically dead like Kyle Use check how many fullbacks are there in the NFL? So it used to just be like there are two running backs. One guy was called a fullback who was typically your lead blocker. So running back and halfback, I mean this football, one on one, I mean carry the football. Fullbacks typically do not. They just, they just block. It's why they don't really exist anymore. Because a lot of these modern day offensive coordinators view it like we're playing nine on 11. Right. Because the quarterback's not a threat to run and the fullback is basically just a blocker. So you have the five offensive linemen and a fullback. You're at a pretty big disadvantage. Quick question for the bag. Do you think there should be a limit on how far back someone can brag about their super bowl wins? I've got a buddy who's a diehard Dolphins fan. Since I'm a Charger fan, he's always bringing up their super bowl win from the 1970s. But when I ask what have they done in this era, he just goes right back to talking about the same championship. To me, it just doesn't make sense to keep bragging about something you never saw. Like the Raiders. Dolphins haven't been in a wild card playoff. Haven't had a wild card playoff win since the early 2000s. That's almost 25 years. What's the point of bringing up your grandpa's championship? It means something. Like it means something today when you haven't seen them do anything in decades. You are not able to brag about championships if you are not alive. So to me, if. And again, let's just. I'm going to assume you're 35 years old. To brag about something that happened in 1972 is an embarrassment. Honestly, I get kind of tired of Mercury Morris and kind of that crew. Every time the last team that's undefeated in the NFL loses a game. But they fucking were on the team. They went undefeated. Different world. I listen, I'm not one to. I'm not trying to go J.J. redick, plumbers and firemen. Because to play in the NFL in the 70s, I'd argue was harder than it is today in terms of the training, the facilities, the. The. How terrible most of the turf was, the travel, like, I can't even imagine. But like you, you do not get to brag. If you're 20 years old, you don't get to brag about stuff that happened in the 90s. That is not okay. It actually crossed my mind today because I was in the gym and I was struggling. I'm like, I don't have much in me. So sometimes I listen to podcasts. If I'm lifting, I'm like, this is not working. So I just click on. I just go to Pandora. I'm like, I need something, like Ozzy OSBOURNE something. And 50 Cent comes. So I click it. And the first song is California Love with Dr. Dre and Tupac. And Dr. Dre is a line, like he says, 1995 or 95. And I was like, this song's 30 years old. I'm listening to this song that I remember watching that video on my couch growing up. When they're in like the desert, I think down by like Palm Springs or in Vegas, I guess I don't know if they shot it in Vegas, but the video is kind of sick. And I'm thinking, this song's 30 years old. And then I remember being in like my dad's truck in the mid-90s and he'd be listening to stuff from like the late 60s. I'd be like, this music is so old. Just kind of made me feel old. As a lifelong Bears fan, I'm tired of overhyping the off season. I have a huge concern with the Bears lack of talent at running back, mainly DeAndre Swift in a Ben Johnson style offense. Like many other offenses in the NFL, the success of the passing game works in tandem with the run game. My question is this. How much of a team's rushing offense is designed based off the talent and skill set of the O line versus the talent and skill set of their running backs. Can a team with a lack of talent at running back make up for it in if they have the talent O line style their rushing attack to cater to the O Line strengths. I think this is very overlooked when talking about the Bears offensive success this year when we have arguably the worst running back room in the league. To me, you can circumvent average running backs to have a successful running game. If you have a dominant offensive line, you can have a great running back if your line sucks. Saquon Barkley, the Giants, it doesn't matter. You match them together, you get Saquon Barkley, you get. I was going to say Christian McCaffrey, but the 49ers offensive line, not great. But you've seen it over the, you know, Terrell Davis, you've seen it over the years. I would rather if you told me I had to choose one, would I rather take an average to below average running back room and a great offensive line or vice versa? I'll take the old lineman every year, every time. So I would say in your predicament, I'd feel pretty good about like my upgrades with my guards and my centers. I guess my center and my two guards. There's only one center on the field. Tackles a little bit of a question mark. But if those guys improve, I have people in the NFL that like DeAndre Swift. I know the Eagles were very, very high on him now he kind of is what he is now. I also think you guys will be in the business. Could you trade for running back during training camp? Could you claim a guy off waivers? I mean, what'd you guys draft this year? Relatively high, right? So you guys drafted 10th. You actually have a pretty good waiver claim. Would not shock me at all if you claimed a running back. But I would feel better that my offensive line is good than my running back situation. But. But I'm with you. I mean a huge part the last couple years the Lions vet both, right? They had awesome offensive line, but they also had Gibbs and Montgomery. Do you think Julian Edelman is a Hall of Famer? If you would have asked me a couple years ago, I would have said no. But now my mind has changed. If you don't think he is, do you think he eventually gets in years down the road? You know, I looked the other day because I was. I'd been thinking about this after I met him. He never made a Pro Bowl. I think what makes football pretty special in the NBA, you know, basketball hall of Fame is different because of factors in college. But like you're never making the hall of Fame if you're not going to a lot of all star games, right? In football, you cannot be a quote unquote Pro Bowler and still be one of the most important guys on a dynasty in the NFL. So Julian Edelman, is he going to make the hall of Fame? Probably not. But would you rather be a Hall of Fame guy with no championships and some Pro Bowls? I'm not trying to talk shit about Ochocinko. Ochocinko was a stud, but, like, would he change or trade his career, all those Pro Bowls? Being viewed as one of the best players at his position in the league for a long period of time in the 2000s, playing for the Bengals or being on a team, no Pro Bowls, bunch of Super Bowls, a Super Bowl MVP and just an absolute living legend, especially in that town. I would take. If the money discrepancy was gigantic, I think you would take the guy with the way more money. But Julian made a lot of money in his career. I also think when you win championships, you're earning potential. When I was at Collins doing the fs, one thing a couple weeks ago, I was bullshitting with Alexi Laos and I told him that I was on Stanford's campus in 1994 when they played Brazil in the World Cup. And they. And he started describing that game, that atmosphere. He's like, we lost one, nothing. And he's like, you know why I'm sitting here right now? He's like, do you know why I've had this career in soccer? Because of the 1994 World Cup. And I think some of these guys that go on, you know, unless you play for the Cowboys, but when you're this legendary champion, Julian Edelman's value. He came into Fox, he's a huge part of their pregame show because he's extremely famous because he's a big time winner. And I think that he wouldn't trade his career for. For many, you know, I mean, there's. There's not that many guys over the last 30 years besides like Jerry Rice, who won a bunch of championships and also was a great wide receiver who's a Hall of Famer. Like, think about a lot of the hall of Fame wide receivers. Calvin Johnson, Marvin Harrison won a Super Bowl. But a lot of guys that did not win championships. Obviously the best case, you do both. That's what made Shannon Sharp. I mean, he's the best of both worlds, right? Championship player, hall of Famer. Like, you get it both. There's usually a fine line. A lot think about a lot of the Patriots minus Tom Brady, that second run. None of those guys are making the hall of Fame. I guess I have to look at Devin McCourty how many pro Bowls he made? Maybe he's closer than I'm giving him credit for. I just don't want to feel like he's definitely made some Pro Bowls. Maybe he's a bad example. Only he made two Pro Bowls and three second team all Pros. So he, he'd probably be on the. I bet he doesn't make it, but like McCourty, Edelman, David Andrews, Dante Hightower. But they have a lot of guys that I don't think would trade their careers for many people. Has Sean McDermott learned how to become a head coach in Josh Allen's prime? Where do you rank McDermott as a head coach and do you feel he can learn to scheme and use the clock effectively as in coach the Bills to a Super Bowl? He's done a pretty freaking good job. I mean, you guys have been in multiple AFC championships over the last five years. You have gone toe to toe with the Chiefs. That playoff win last year against the Ravens was extremely impressive. Sean McDermott is really good and I think when you're a defensive coach and you have a great quarterback, if he was an offensive guy and their offense was crushing it, he would get a lot more credit. I just think you don't get the same amount of credit when you're a defensive guy. And if we quarterbacks carrying you. When he got to the Bills, that organization sucked. It was a joke. Miami Dolphins, they were just, they weren't winning. They hadn't won in a long, long time. And I think he's done a really, really good job. Now he's had some clock snafus. Andy Reid used to have some. Now the pushback is you get Josh Allen in your prime. It will go to our next question. There's a lot of pressure these next couple years. If not now, then when? Imagine you could bet whether a player would ever win a Super bowl as a starting quarterback. Here are some rough odds I came up with. Who would you bet on and who is priced too low or too high? Allen is minus 150 and Lamar Jackson is plus 125. I personally would have them the same. I would probably have them both at like minus 110 because there is a chance neither one wins a Super Bowl. I would bet one of them does win a Super bowl, but like there is no guarantee. And while Josh has been a better quarterback in the playoffs, the Ravens do have the better team. And if Lamar could ever put together against the Chiefs or the Bills, like the second half that he played against the Bills last Year, they would beat both those two teams. The last two years. His problem was he played the first half shitty. And against the Chiefs, he just didn't play well. But if he had played well in either one of those games, they win that game because their team is so good. Like their roster is better than the Bill's roster. At least the last couple years. We'll see as we transition, maybe some guys take steps, but I would have their odds as the same. Burrow plus 250. I'd have that higher, I guess. When I say higher plus 400. Do I envision the Bengals winning a Super Bowl? I do not. Jaden Daniels plus 250. Herbert plus 300. Like, I would have Herbert and Burrow, I might have Herbert ahead of him. He's got Jim Harbaugh. Look at what Jim Harbaugh did with the 49ers. Like, I think the Chargers are going to be pretty freaking good this year. Now people are like, middle cuff, have you seen this fucking guy playing the play? You're right. He's got to play better in the playoffs. He's got to play better in the playoffs. But his coach, his infrastructure, their O line, they're. They're going to be Good. Jordan Love, C.J. jared Goff, Brock Purdy. I'd probably have Brock Purdy a little lower. I guess if you just factor in the next several years, I'd have him and golf about the same. Four or five to one. Pretty good. I do think that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. I would. If I was handicapping it. I would give those two guys the same odds. God, I'm fired up. The British Open is here. 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[John Middlekauff]

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Some exclusions apply to instant rewards in which rewards are deposited when the transaction posts this content is not investment advice and trading. Crypto involves risk. For more details on rates, fees and other Gemini credit card terms, see Rates and fees. Go to gemini.comjohn to learn more and start earning today. Hey John, Love the show. Like any market boom, there is typically a leveling off or a recession a little after a little while. Right now we seem to be in a bit of a salary cap boom. New international markets, bigger television streaming deals and the NFL simply being a year round discussion and not A seasonal thing like a few decades ago. But it seems like NFL GMs are assuming the salary cap is only going to increase leading to these constant record breaking deals. Should other GMs be thinking about a salary cap leveling off period or should they continue to ride the wave and hope there is more money in the future? I say other because I'm an Eagles fan and Howie is definitely thinking about this because he's the goat. Here's the difference for most of us, right? If a huge recession hit, for example, I'm heavily involved in the advertising business, it would directly impact my operation, right? And people in the podcasting space. Depending on how big you were, what your infrastructure was, what your established history was, some would be better than others. Just like in any different industry or any walk of life, if you have a set contract that is unbreakable, the NFL knows they're getting money, right? They sign a 10 year deal at billions upon billions of dollars. So for something to dramatically change the companies they are in business with, CBS Fox would basically have to go under because they would pay the NFL. That'd be the last thing they would ever cut. They would cut every single thing cbs. They would get rid of everything in front of their eyes before they stopped paying the NFL because of the importance of the NFL product on their network. And I think the NFL would say, well if the worst case scenario happened, because I was taught a long time ago nothing is for certain no matter what world, no matter what industry you're in. Pick up a history book. But I think the NFL feels pretty confident about at least the foreseeable Future. This next five years and then that second, that contract after let's say 2029 for the next decade. But if something were to happen then yeah, it'd be a problem. But if you told me that a catastrophic event that forced the NFL salary cap to come down in the near future, I would say we got big problems in society. I would say make sure your your piggy bank is full because that would be a reflection. We would be fucked. Fellow Mustang here just graduated a software engineering degree. You are a tad smarter than me, my friend. So congratulations, found you in Collins feed. Huge fan. I went to high school with a guy whose dad played in the NFL for many years, Mark Bruner. Remember the name, remember the player well. And he now works as a scout for the team. His son went to UW as a linebacker. Mark also played there and just got drafted the Steelers in the seventh round and and signed his rookie deal. All props to him, he is an insanely hard working guy. But my question is this. How much could his dad have helped getting him into college and eventually getting him drafted, given that he played for both teams and is now a scout. In other words, how much loyalty would the Steelers organization owe Mark or would they have drafted him anyways? I would say I think sometimes in college, like if you're a former alumni and you're a famous NFL guy, you played in the league. If your guys on the fringe, it doesn't kill these programs to take them, right? Unlike the Pros, you have 100 man roster. If a guy's a third stringer, who cares? You have 85 scholarships now with nil. That happens right now I'd have to look at how good his son was. You don't. If the Steelers are going to draft you, you're a good player in college. So typically like I think you're seeing it all around in the NBA, in the NFL. I don't think it's random that like Ron Harper's kid went number two. Even Cooper flag his parents were college basketball players. Look at some of these NFL guys that get drafted, all their dads. So genetics matter. If you're going to play in the NBA, if you're going to play in the NFL, typically you're not using John Middlekoff sperm, right? So Bruner like has big time, I would say like NFL pedigree. So when you have NFL pedigree and you're a starter in college and a draftable player, that is a big bonus in the draft room. So even if I'm not on the Steelers, if I had scouted University of Washington, I'd be like, hey, hard working guy, staff loves him, been a productive player, he's going to play in the NFL. I feel confident that taking this guy in the sixth, seventh round or an undrafted free agent, like he will be a contributing member and have a good chance as any. Because a huge part of guys in the sixth, seventh round that make it, it's about mentality, it's about like to me it's a lot of the intangible stuff. It's not as much you're not getting guys in the sixth, seventh round with like typically elite traits. So most of those guys make it on work ethic, on smarts, on toughness, on the intangible shit. So the Steelers would know him better than probably everyone else because he's the son, but they would not draft him just because their dad works there. Just like a couple years ago when the Cowboys took The running back from K State and his dad was a scout. That kid could play, you know. Now do they. There is an element where human beings, it's a cool moment in the room, but they like the player, the GM like the player, maybe the assistant coach like the player. It's not, they're not just doing it out of the goodness of their heart. Okay, we'll end on this. I said the other day I had downloaded. It was one of those situations where I didn't check my iPad downloads a couple weeks ago and I was on a plane and things I tried to download like hadn't finished so I didn't have access to them. The only thing I had on my iPad wasn't. I had a couple books with me. But I was like, I kind of want to watch something. Was like this yacht show I think on Amazon prime about these guys that are like billionaires that own these like 50, 100 million dollar yachts. I'm like, listen, I'm not disputing that these yachts look cool. Like I'm just not a big sit on the ocean guy. I like even like a boat on the lake. Like going on the boat for Saw Joe Burrow say this like I like going for an hour or two. I'm not a huge wakeboarder. Have a few beers then come back to the beach. You know. I like being on hard land. I've never disputed like having a cool ski boat or having a yacht. It's cool. I'm not against anyone that aspires to do either. But I like being on the land and looking at the water. Some people like or swimming. But I don't like actually being out there. I like below deck. Good show. I wouldn't pay for that if I had the money. Would I go if invited? Probably, but that's not really, not really into that. So here's the question. You talked about the, the intake of private equity and your lack of desire to be on a $50 million yacht. If you had crazy money, like multiple double digit billions, what would be the crazy splurge you would want to buy rather than a 50 million dollar yacht? I guess I'm not a splurge guy. I'm really not. I probably buy like more assets now like you said, if you're worth billions of dollars, you can kind of buy whatever you want. I think I read one time that they described like the richest human that they knew. And the best way to describe them or that guy described himself to them is like essentially everything in my life is free One thing for sure I would get would be a plane. So wherever I wanted to go, my dog could come with me. I mean, the advantage that the ultra rich have when they travel to be able to take, you name it, not have to wait and fight the masses at the airport. Listen, I have a lot of respect. People get so angry at airports and delays. It's got to be difficult. It really does. I mean, there's a lot going on in those things. I fucking hate airports. For those of you guys that travel a lot for work, more power to you. It is just. It puts me in such a bad mood being in an airport. Delays, everyone's angry, smelly, the food options suck. They're charging you $20 for a water, and, you know, peanuts are $18. You're like, oh, get me out of this thing. You're stuffed into Southwest like a sardine to me. A plane I would buy if the most expensive private jet. Imagine, like, I would have no hesitation doing that. But ultimately, like, quote unquote, splurging. Like, I'm not, I guess houses I'm into, like, I would try to buy like buildings and invest in companies and do stuff like that. But a yacht. I'll be completely honest, I. If you haven't seen it, at first, when I saw the thing come across, it's like the yacht show about the poop cruise on Netflix. I was like, I'm not going to watch this. Then I watched a trailer like, doesn't look terrible. Then we watched it when we were in Tahoe one night. It's a good watch. I recommend it. A cruise. My parents used to go on them. I've never been on a cruise. I'm sure some of you listening have been on cruises. That is not appealing to me at all. It's not because I'm scared, like it's gonna go down like Titanic. But just being stuck on that vessel with thousands of people, it's just. I don't know. I love to swim. I love being in the water. I love Lake Tahoe. It's like one of my favorite places I've ever been in my entire life. I go every year. I've gone my entire life. Very lucky just to be born hour and a half away from it or else. You know, I've said this forever about the acc, the golf tournament going into Tahoe. If you notice the Kelsey's, the Mahomes, these guys that are from other areas of the country, then that play football in other areas of the country, that come out here for the first time. To Lake Tahoe. They come back every fucking year because they're like, this place is like heaven on earth. It's like, wait, we're in Nevada. Meaning there are casinos and we can gamble and we can play golf and there's this enormous lake. Like, yeah, it's a pretty special place. But I'm just not. I'm not a big ocean guy. My good buddy of mine growing up, his grandpa, when I was, you know, 12 to through high school, liked to like deep sea fish. Successful guy, had a construction company. I remember going out with them for the first time. You get up at like, you know, four in the morning. It's like you're going on a hunt or something. And you get out there, it's freezing cold. You're in the Pacific Ocean. I got so sick. And they're like, oh, take this Dramamine. Which is like, oh, it makes you feel better. Well, yeah, kind of. But you also just go to sleep like, yeah, I'm just not. It's not a huge ocean guy in terms of being on it on a boat. So that'd be a long way to describe of props to anyone that enjoys yachts or even boats. Even in Tahoe. I was talking my brother. I'm like, how much? Because I remember being like 20 years ago. Like, if you were really cool, you had a sweet ass, like wakeboard boat, like a ski, like a Malibu. I remember they were a lot of money 20 plus years ago. Like 50 grand. It's like their cost of a car. I was talking to Jeff, we were having some cocktails, swimming around the lake, which actually was kind of cold but swimmable. He's like, do you know how much these things cost now? I'm like, no. He's like, 150 grand. Like, that's how much a ski. A nice ski boat costs. Yeah, they are not cheap. Jesus, not a boat guy. So Godspeed to all you that are.

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[Podcast Host]

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