← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - Reaction to Baker Mayfield & Buccaneers MELTDOWN on TNF in loss vs. Falcons
01:38:26
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Matt Kelley
This is an iHeart podcast.
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Stucky
This is Rob Gronkowski from Dudes on Dudes with Gronk and jewels for the second season in a row, I partnered with T Mobile's Friday night 5G lights.
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Matt Kelley
Powering up hometown football across America.
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Stucky
This year, T mobile invested over $4 million in prizes to help schools take their Friday nights to the next level. Now it's time to crown our $1 million grand prize winner. A huge congrats to Derrick's High school.
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Matt Kelley
In Derrick's, Arkansas, home of the Outlaws.
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Stucky
And your 2020 5T mobile Friday night 5G lights champion. They scored a home field upgrade, Gronk Fitness weight room, a 2026 tailgate party and an all expense paid trip to the SEC Championship game.
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Matt Kelley
To every school that competed, posted and rallied your communities.
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Stucky
Thank you and a big thanks to T Mobile for making it all possible and helping communities shine under the Friday night lights. This season may be over, but the story isn't. Stay tuned for season three in 2026.
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Matt Kelley
Coca Cola for the big, for the small, the short and the tall. Peacemakers.
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Matt Kelley
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Matt Kelley
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Matt Kelley
Podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of ufc. When you're streaming the fight or sharing those takedown highlights, you need a wireless provider that keeps you close to the action. With Total Wireless, you're covered by the Verizon 5G network so you don't have to worry about your connection being knocked out at the biggest moments it's not something you can usually say about a wireless provider, but Total Wireless really does have your back. They're in your corner every second of the day, so you never miss a thing. Visit totalwireless.com or visit your local Total Wireless Store to learn more about how Total Wireless can be in your corner. 5G access requires a 5G capable device and a 5G service area. Additional terms apply. See website for details.
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The volume.
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Matt Kelley
What? I don't even know why I just talk like that. What's going on, everybody? How are we doing? John Middle Golf three and Out Podcast. Hopefully everyone is doing well. This little show is presented by my friends at Zone Pouches. Hopefully you're doing better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost tonight and are in complete shambles. They've lost how many games now? 1, 2, 3, 4? 5? Five of the last six games in a free fall. Baker was outplayed by Kirk Cousins. Bijan Robinson looked like a superstar. So we'll dive into that game. Joe Burrow, Rumors. We got to dive into that because I'm not quite sure that the owner is going to agree with the Internet. And I think we're almost underrating this story with Philip Rivers, 44, coming back. Actually, I'm riveted. I can't wait to watch. If he does start, which Schefter said, signs point to him starting. Stucky will also join us and we'll go over all the games coming up this weekend. So we got some good ones. And yeah, this will be our last podcast till Sunday night. So you guys know the drill. Subscribe to the YouTube page if you're listening on Collins feed. Make sure you subscribe to Apple, to Spotify. And before we dive into any football, though, you know, I got to tell you about my friends, my partners in the official ticketing app of this podcast. Game Time. Best in the business. I get a lot of you guys that hit me up that use Game Time. Been using them for a long time. Easy to use to go to a football game, obviously any other sport. NBA, NHL, college basketball, college football. You want to go to one of these college playoff games, concerts, comedy shows, you name it, they have you covered. You can search by the event, you can search by the artist, you can search by the venue. They have tickets to go to NFL games as low as $100. The price you see when you check out is the same price that you pay. There are no hidden fees. Some of these ticketing apps, you. You check out and it's like, that's not the price That I just saw, it's like double. It's not the way it works. The price you see is the price you pay. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets to NFL games with GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use code JOHAN for $20 off your first purchase. Again, create an account, redeem the code John, that's my name, John. For $20 off, swipe, tap. Get your tickets and download the GameTime app today. Not gonna lie. When they were up two touchdowns, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I just want, hey, it's the Falcons kind of in shambles. Cousins felt like he was losing a little steam. Like this is what's supposed to happen. Tampa's having a weird season. They'll be 8 and 6. They'll win this division at like 10 and 7 and all is right in the world. And then all of a sudden that's not what happened. Atlanta started scoring, Raheem's going for two, and they end up winning it on a walk off field goal in Tampa Bay. I would say somewhat stunning. Now, when you watch the game, it wasn't really stunning because here's a, here's just the reality of what we witnessed tonight. Kirk Cousins was better than Baker Mayfield. I mean, Kirk Cousins actually was pretty good tonight. And I actually think that's a pretty big reflection of Tampa Bay because their defense is atrocious. It is really, really bad. And when Baker Mayfield on second and 14 late in the game to a pass that potentially ices the game to his star young rookie over the middle of the field, who is open, throws it behind him and it's an incomplete pass and the next play he sacked. And then obviously they punt and Atlanta drives the field. Cousins makes a couple nice plays and they kick, what a 43 yard field goal to make this division pretty interesting. Now, one takeaway I had is why you can't write your headlines before the game ends with about five, six minutes to go, when it felt like damp was going to win, I went, listen, the Bucks offense, you get Mike Evans, who's a Hall of Famer, Godwin is just a stud. You got a Buca, you get Bucky Irvin back. Tristan Worfs was locking up the young Cats. You know, at left tackle you get Baker playing solid, especially in the red zone. You can just kind of throw it up to those two guys. They are going to be a tough out, but they were going to be a one and done team. Like as the four seed, they weren't beating whoever in the NFC ended up as the Five seed. I actually think they would have been an underdog in that game. Now, I mean, they still control their own destiny because they play Carolina twice. But does this feel like a team that's just going to beat Carolina twice? And there has been a lot of heat and a lot of people have been, what about Todd Bowles? What's the deal here? Now, I'm a little biased. I work with Todd in Philly. I've always really liked them. But I do understand, like, fans, when your team looks shitty and your coach has no emotion, people cannot comprehend it. Now, you could argue when your team looks bad and you're constantly screaming, they also think you're a fraud. When you're losing, it doesn't really matter how you act. They're going to nitpick you, right? You're seeing it with Kaylin DeBoer, and he's 10 and two that he is. Or I guess he's 10 and three now after losing to Georgia, but, like, there's not enough juice behind him. Saban would be ripping asses up and down the sideline. Well, not everyone's personality is that. Not every guy is a yeller and a screamer. Pete Carroll was smiling, chewing gum in his heyday for Seattle, and they were killing people. All that matters is what you see on the field, because the majority of work happens when none of us are watching. And clearly whatever they're doing in Tampa. And Todd is a defensive guy, and when he was a defensive coordinator for Aryans at multiple spots, we all agreed he's one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. But now, as a head coach, the defense is clearly falling off a cliff. I mean, they are atrocious. They make Kirk Cousins, who, like Rivers I thought was washed years ago, who I was texting people in the league. I'm like, isn't it crazy? They paid this guy almost $30 million to be their backup by the end of the game. Like, hey, he's pretty good now, but it's a reflection of the team. It's who he's playing. It's like, is J.J. mcCarthy good, or did he just get to play the Washington Commanders? Probably a lot of the Washington Commanders. Now, Cousins has a track record, but at his age, like, my expectations are pretty low. And as the game went on, he skipped a couple balls. Like, he's got serious limitations. Can't move arm strengths, a little hit or miss. But if you're not getting any pass rush and your DBs can't cover, like, he could hit guys and he should have thrown a touchdown to a guy. Honestly, I had to Google. I'm like, Kenny Stills? No, it's David Sills from West Virginia. I'm like, who is this guy, like filling in for Drake London. He's Kirk Cousins locker mate. I'm like, yeah, a lot of people want to talk to those guys, I'm sure. But like the best player on the field tonight was Bijan Robinson. He looked like he was back where he grew up in Tucson playing high school football. He was just operating at a different speed than everyone else now. We'll get to him in a second. He's a special talent. Like his just pure ability. I would say one of the more talented guys in the league. And honestly, it's kind of sad. I'd be lying if I've dialed in every single snap of that many Falcons games over the last couple months. But like most people, I've watched this guy's career since he was a Texas. Like, God, this guy's really good. I mean, this guy. There are a lot of playoff teams like, hey, what Atlanta would you guys this offseason, but we'll get to that in a second. But like the Bucks, there's just something missing. And we were on early Baker Mayfield, I think it opened up at 50 to 1. It was down to like 20 to 1. It was like, God, where could this thing go? Could he be a favorite by middle to the end of the season for to win the mvp? And the answer is no. And whether he was banged up earlier this year, I'm not quite sure. I mean we kind of knew he was in and out of the injury report, but his play is just very hit or miss now. And one thing that he has to kind of hang his hat on if he's not doing the crazy playmaking running around is accuracy. And you saw moments tonight where he's hitting Mike Evans on the back shoulder, fade over Terrell, which is just an unstoppable throw. He had a great two point conversion to Chris Godwin. The timing was perfect. He back shouldered him because the DB was on the inside. It's like that's pretty high level. And then he also had throws that you're like, that's pretty bad. And clearly his numbers, I think he's 19 to 34 tonight. Not great. But the margin for error for their team because their defense is so atrocious, they don't have any margin for error on offense. Like they can't afford to not put up points on every drive. And that ended up costing him tonight. And I would say this about the Bucks. If I was a betting man right now, I would just have a hard time seeing them beating Carolina twice. So you would just be like, yeah, they split, and then Carolina ends up winning the division. And there has been a lot of talk about the Todd Bowles situation at head coach. Obviously, he took over for, you know, Bruce Arians when he retired and has done a good job. I mean, handled that weird year with Tom Brady. But the last couple of years of Baker Mayfield have not just been entertaining. Like, they've been a good team. And it does feel like it's starting to go the other way now. And I think sometimes, you know, when you have an area of expertise, it's like the Sharon Moore thing is a massive story right now. But from a football standpoint, it's like their offensive line, as a. As a buddy in the league, text me. And he's been scouting their program the entire Harbaugh era, and obviously, the Sharon time, he's like, it's never been worse. Well, Sharon Moore's an offensive line guy. He's an offensive lineman. That's his area of expertise. So I'm watching Todd. I know Todd can call blitzes, but the overall defense just looks like it gets worse and worse. And I do think there's extra emphasis in terms of, like, hey, we're playing Kirk Cousins. It's one thing. It's like, if you had lost tonight to Joe Burrow or Josh Allen or, you know, some top end guy, you'd be like, listen, we got beat. One of the best guys. Our defense is not great. They lit us up. But Kirk Cousins throws for what was his final yardage tonight? 373 yards. And let's face it, if the dude catches a wide open pass down the sideline. Does Cousin throw for, like, 420 yards tonight? Kirk Cousins, who? Everyone kind of universally makes fun of the Falcons for having this contract of this guy that's not able to play. I almost said makes fun of Cousins. We don't really anymore. He's actually kind of likable in a weird way. But that one was tough. And, you know, for the first time, because I've never bought it, I do see a scenario that if this team misses the playoffs, people often say, and I get a lot of dms, it turns out the Bucks. Sneaky, have more fans than you realize. Sorry. I've been. I've been battling this. My wife got sick, and my immunity's battled it off, but it's kind of creeped in and out that, you know, I get people like Todd Bowles. Got to go. Todd Bull's got to go. Jason Light needs to fire Todd Bowles. In my take, always with a GM and a head coach, it's not really one or the other. Firing the guy, like a coach can kind of get a GM forced out, and a GM can kind of get a coach forced out, but it's through the owner. Like, the owner has to be on board. The owner is the one paying those two guys, and beside the players, those are their two highest paid employees. So if Todd Bowles is gone, it's because the Glazer family wants him gone. Right? It's not whether Jason says, hey, it's time for a change or whatever. It's not his call. That's not the way it works. You know, there's not a more powerful GM in the league than Howie Roseman. Sirianni's job status always came down the last couple years, you know, or two years ago when they had that losing streak to Jeffrey Lurie, not Howie Roseman. And I'm not saying how he was one way or the other, but my point is that these decisions, you know, like Joe Shane survived because the owner kind of likes him, right? And whether he wanted Brian Dable or not, that's John Mora and his crew. So I think this decision will be. If they keep crumbling like this at home, short week against a terrible team in your division, that's type stuff to get you fired because it's not like you're not firing Baker Mayfield. Right? You saw Mike Evans at the end of the game, right before they kicked the field goal, just kind of going nuts. Like, he looked furious. Don't blame him. He's like, I came back. I had my clavicle shattered. I've battled hamstrings the last couple years. I do everything humanly possible to get on this field. I'm busting my ass making plays. I have six catches for 130 yards. I'm dominating this game. Our offense, it felt like should dominate this game, and what happens? We lose. Now, I do think Baker threw a pick. You know, you'd have to get like some more loss key type to, like. I don't necessarily put all the blame on Baker for that throw. Has some similarities. It's not an apples to apples scenario, but like, kind of like Jalen hurts the last pass that ended the game against the Chargers. I view that as a really good defensive play. And, you know, in this situation, it was a great defensive play call. I think Herb Street Says they typically run man coverage. They had the slot corner turned into a zone defender and he read Baker's eyes and he jumped the comeback or the out route or whatever it was to Mike Evans. You know, just had to jump a little bit and picked it off. But that was a killer play. The interception and the missed pass to a mecca over the middle. And this team, because of the way that they're operating right now, need him to be, I don't know, a top, definitely a top 10 quarterback for them to make the playoffs. And clearly the way he's playing is not really that. He had some moments tonight, but like I said, I do believe that the course of the game, like Kirk Cousins outplayed him. I mean, that's. Now part of that is Cousins was sacked one time. It's not like Tampa exactly has Warren Sapp and Simeon Rice coming after your ass, right? They don't get pressure on a guy that can't move. It's not like Kirk Cousins is Caleb Williams and can take off when the pockets of disaster. No, he's, he just sits within a two yard radius. You, you could argue even Jared Goff, no quarterback moves less than Kirk Cousins. I mean that's, that's, that's very. He's an old school player. They don't really exist. I mean, watch all these college quarterbacks, all the guys we're talking about in the draft. Fernando Mendoza, athlete, Dante Moore, athlete, even like the Ty Simpson type guys, they can move around. Cousins cannot move around at all. And they sacked him one time. Meanwhile, Baker sacked five times. So I mean, that's kind of the game you get. Your quarterback gets outplayed, your quarterback gets sacked, their quarterback doesn't get hit. And for the most part he's really productive. I mean, that's probably the best game Kirk Cousins has played since like early last year. And part of the reason I love the Bucks tonight was I just kind of bet against Kirk Cousins and for a while it was working. But to allow 15 points down the stretch, obviously two touchdowns and a field goal, 15 points, it sounds a little better than it actually was because they went for two twice. They didn't get either. I know, you know, the analytic crew love going for, you know, two at every stop, right? Down 14, down 8 or down when they could be 7, they'd rather be down 6, which I get it, you're playing to win. And to me, the Falcons, once you're, once you're four and nine, you don't have your first round pick. Like just throw shit at the wall and hope it sticks. But I mean, the one thing they have going for them, I thought this tonight, like, I don't know if this win is enough to keep Raheem in the front office alive. Their last three games are at Cardinals, Ram, Saints. So I guess it's not inconceivable that they win a couple games down the stretch and end up 7 and 10. Or at 1 point in time it felt like they were going to end up 5 and 11. So maybe their final record could look better than the product we saw. But if they do fire everybody and people come in and just take this thing over, I think one thing you would want to do is probably rip this thing down to the studs and truly start over, which they haven't really done. Now, if I own the team, I wouldn't want to get rid of Bijan Robinson, right? He is a remarkable talent. Clearly Herb street was talking about tonight, like elite character, guy, everything you want in a player. But he is their most valuable asset by a mile. And we have seen, at least in the course of my life, Marshall Falk was once traded. We have seen some big time running backs. You know, Christian McCaffrey not that long ago was viewed to be over the hill and went for a second a three and a four. I mean, I think B. John Robinson, you might be able to get two ones. You definitely get like a one and two twos and you don't have a one. Your quarterback situation is in major flux. You have just a weird operation going on. I do think you would have to entertain it. And I do think good teams, like if you tell me you put B. John Robinson on the Chiefs, like I know B. John Robinson is, I'm not a big fantasy guy. So if you play fantasy, you know, he's a name talked about for years, but I feel like in the world I live in, that is just talking about the major things that are happening in the NFL. Watching all these games that matter and his games just don't matter. He feels a little out of sight, out of mind. And that sucks because I think if you put him on the Chiefs, if you just put him on some big time team, I think he'd be a superstar. I mean, look at Christian McCaffrey. Kind of happened to him, came to the Niners and became one of the biggest names again in the NFL. And I do think depending on who takes over and what their big picture is, that is an easy way to get yourself some assets and flip it around. Look at the Jets, I think Your first reaction is like no fucking way. The jets just traded two guys and got three first round picks back. Now if you had to list those three guys when you factor in age and contract B John still on his rookie contract. I'd rather have Bijan, you know, than a 28 year old Quinn and Williams, assuming that I have to give him his third contract with is going to be massive. And I definitely would rather have Bijan than Sauce Gardner. And and I don't say that lightly because typically you'd rather have a corner than a running back. But I think Bijan's kind of like Christian McCaffrey. I mean he's bigger. I mean he's like same type deal. Like he could just be a starting slot receiver and there would be no stopping him. Like Christian McCaffrey could have just been a wide receiver and he would have been a dominant wide receiver. They just happen to be unreal running backs. They can run inside, they can run outside, they can break tackles, they can make guys miss. And Bijon is 23 years old. I just googled it right before we press play turns turns 24 in late January, probably like the AFC NFC championship game weekend. So I that's something I know people like trade Joe Burrow like guys, we'll get into that in a second. Pump the brakes there. But this would be one that if I was the Falcons and really just wanted to restart my franchise and kind of tear it down to the studs because they have been patchworking this thing and putting band aids over bullet holes for a while and it has just not worked out. And for as cool as tonight was, if you're a Falcons fan you go where has that been? Even Kyle Pitts tonight, I mean halfway through this game you're going what's up with this guy? He's got one touchdown on the year. Maybe it's his cousins. He had, he had 11 for 166 and three touchdowns. He looked again, you're playing the Bucks, but just his size, his ball skills, his movements, he's a guy that you watch he's going to go somewhere else. And the second part of his career, I bet he becomes a pretty high end player. I bet really good teams are extremely interested in this individual. Pretty sure he's a see a free agent this off season. I think he is and if he is, I think a lot of people are going to be very, very interested in him. So Bucks man, not good.
- [24:26]
Stucky
Foreign.
- [24:33]
Matt Kelley
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- [26:09]
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- [28:38]
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- [28:40]
Matt Kelley
All.
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- [30:33]
Matt Kelley
Speaking of Joe Burrow, I mean, I've hinted at this a couple times. I, I'm not floored because I get the business and I understand saying star player X, trade him to these three teams gets headlines, gets excitement, gets people to engage. And I'm not talking shit about that world. I'm in it too. But I just think there are some things that when we talk about it, the Cincinnati Bengals. Have you ever known an old person, an old, stubborn person, typically as they age, it gets worse. Have you ever known an old, stubborn rich guy? They definitely are not listening to anybody. Now, I've never known an old, stubborn billionaire, but that's what Mike Brown is. Mike Brown is an old, stubborn billionaire that over two decades ago had an issue with his quarterback who wanted out. Do you know what he told him? Retire, I'm not trading. You didn't budge. Do people forget that? Like, I've been along long enough in the Internet era to remember some things. And Mike Brown, because all we do is talk about how stubborn Mike Brown is, how poorly he runs the team. Like he had a situation with the number one overall pick, a former Heisman Trophy winner that resurrected his franchise named Carson Palmer. He wanted to leave and Mike Brown would not let him. You think, and listen, I watched Joe Burrow's comments. I my first takeaway wasn't that like 100% this guy this offseason is going to pound the table, wants a trade. I think anytime your team sucks, you've missed a large percentage of the season with a bad foot. It's just that sucks. Like you start looking around, you go, God, if I hadn't been injured, we would be in first place more than likely even with our shitty defense. And I saw Jamar Chase say, like, I think you guys are blowing this out of proportion. I'm around him every day and he's been around him forever to going back to lsu. He's like, I see a happy guy. That's positive. But regardless, the reaction of like, here are the teams that could trade for him. The Rams, the Eagle. You start, Listen, you know, the usual suspects. I expect Mike Brown to not trade Joe Burrow for the next several years. If you think this offseason is like, oh, the Rams are going to trade them four first round picks. What do you think Mike Brown wants with four first round picks? He'd rather just have his star quarterback. And here's what I will say about the Bengals. Joe Burrow has dictated terms to them from a personnel standpoint. He was pounding the table for Jamar Chase over Pennsyl. That I would say, organizationally, obviously, both guys elite. Organizationally, I think if we were running a team, we would place star offensive tackle over a star wide receiver. But they listened, and they went with the receiver, and it's obviously paid dividends. It's been awesome. But they found their receiver. They draft this other guy in the second round who's also a stud. Joe Burrow's like, we can't let him go. Well, we're going to be paying two guys a ton of money at that position. They listened, and they did it. Now, defensively, they don't spend a lot of cash, like, actual cash, relative to a lot of other teams. No one's disputing that. But do you know who knew that? Joe Burrow, because he grew up in Ohio, then played for the Bengals, and then they put an enormous offer in front of him. He didn't have to sign it. Now you go, are you crazy? They gave him $250 million. Well, he could have played hardball. He could have used some leverage. I don't know. But I have a hard time, like, feeling too much sympathy for a guy who signs the contract knowing kind of what he's signing up with. It'd be one thing if you sign a big contract, the owner that you're dealing with leaves. It'd be like the reverse of Washington. It'd be like, you have Josh Harris. He sells to Dan Snyder. You didn't know you were getting in business with, and you're like, this sucks. But that's not the case. Mike Brown owned the team before he went to the NFL, and he currently owns the team now. And he's going to own the team or his family is for the foreseeable future. When you get in business with certain people and you have in, like, you understand what you're getting into business with, it's kind of on you. It really is. Now it's the NFL, that's not the NBA. It's hard to force trades. You know, it is complicated, right? You're typically stuck on a team for a while, but, like, you sign this big contract, they do a lot of the things you want them to do. And then we start complaining about, like, why does this team have a lot of holes? Well, most teams that invest huge amounts of money in four or five players, especially at premium. Premium positions are going to have some holes on their roster now. You could argue they have more than than they should if they were better at drafting. They just drafted the dude, Jermaine Burton, who they cut I think a couple days ago. He's been inactive the last couple of weeks. I think they left him at home for the Ravens game on Thanksgiving, showing up late. I mean, listen, the Bengals, historically they got a little like Al Davis to him, like character. There are a lot of teams that get character, red flags. You're off the board. The Bengals like print you two, two cards. They don't discriminate there with some red flags off the field. But then you get in positions where you're cutting the guy a couple years into his career when you've drafted him on the second day of the draft. And they also do things like this year they drafted defensive lineman really, really high. I'm pretty sure he had like four and a half career sacks in college. So I mean, you're just, this is the franchise you're dealing with. And I listen, I know people are going to say like he should demand his way out even if he went scorched earth like Miles Garrett last year, goes to super bowl, starts asking or hitting all the shows and saying it's time. I have talked to my representative. I've told the Bengals I want out. My belief, absolutely nothing will happen. I would bet you said, hey, you got to bet $10,000. If Joe Burrow demanded a trade, would he be traded or would he not be traded? It would take me less than a second to bet on he will not be traded. I wouldn't even have to think because I've just followed football long enough and it's not like I even from that area, but you have a brain and just common sense and just can put two and two together. The way this guy is operated, I don't see that. I do not see that happening at all. So this is going to be a story. I'm sure there will be things said after the season. I don't expect this to go away. I do think teams, if it ever did become realistic, would obviously be very aggressive. The Rams would move heaven and earth. They would be like, Matt, retire, we'll get you. I'm not disputing any of that. But it takes two to tango. Like, I mean, you know, you can't do a trade without both sides agreeing to the deal. And I just think one side is not only not going to be interested in listening. I don't even think they like they just want no part of it. Like, they're not even in that world. So, fun story for everyone to talk about. I think it's about as unrealistic as any story that kind of consistently gets brought up. And last but not least, I don't think if he actually starts. And Adam Schefter tweeted today, quoting one of the local guys in Indies posts about his practice, that, like, I think Adam's no dummy. He knows what he's doing. All signs pointing to Philip Rivers starting this weekend. That's one of the craziest things to ever happen if he actually starts. He's been retired since 2020. He's been coaching high school football. He's 44 years old. I mentioned this to Stuckey today, that during the Raven Steeler game, they mentioned a stat that, like, I think it was either 75 or 76 games have been started by a guy over 42 years old. And Tom Brady accounted for 66 of those and Rogers is now the 67th. So I don't even know. Maybe you'd have to go Back to, like the 70s or 80s, some of these random old guys. This is not normal, and this is truly unprecedented. Kyle Shanahan said today that Philip Rivers. Because I. I told. I mentioned to stuckey that the 49ers were going to sign him if they made the super bowl the year that Brock Purdy hurt his elbow against the Philadelphia Eagles. And Kyle Shanahan said that when Jimmy Garoppolo broke his ankle and Purdy came in, they contacted Philip Rivers then. And he was in the Zoom meetings each week because they wanted him just up to speed in case something happened to Purdy. So Philip. It's weird, right? Like, a lot of these guys, it was clear, like, Drew Brees was shot. Everyone was out. Roethlisberger's arm over, Eli over. And then there's like, Flacco, who just, like, legitimately keeps playing, but he's like the backup. You know, Rivers was never in that position where he's like, I'll just be someone's backup. But for whatever reason, coaches just love this guy. And clearly his relationship with Shane Siken is. Is pretty unique. It goes back to. He was quarterback coach in San Diego. They speak the same language sometimes. It's like, in life, when you date, when you get married, there are certain women that you meet that you just like. It's hard to explain, right? You just have an instant connection with. Right. Ideally, the one that you're married to and spend the rest of your life with. But throughout your life, when you date different people, you just. You just vibe. You have a connection. Football is kind of like that too, right? Some of these individual. Tom Brady had it with Josh McDaniels, right. Philip Rivers clearly has it with Shane Steichen, Brock Purdy and Cousins. And some of these guys had it with Kyle Shanahan. Sean McVeigh clearly has it with Matt Stafford, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid and Alex Smith. And that relationship is just. It's just a pretty special relationship. It's like you speak the same language immediately and there's a respect factor that goes both ways and that can only take you so far. I do think, I don't want to throw a red flag on the situation, but at 44 years old, that there's just no way humanly possible. You've been training at the levels in which you used to. You're going to Seattle, who as of this morning was a two touchdown favorite. They are one of the best teams in the league. They have one of the best defense in the league, but specifically they have one of the fastest defenses in the league that is led by, you know, he's a head coach, so it's hard to like. I don't think most people consider they go Robert Sala or whoever, the best defensive coordinators in the league. You know, Shula Spagnola, Fangio, Mike McDonald should be listed in that group. If not at the top, he just happens to also be the head coach. And you're going into a hornet's nest place will be bananas. They can operate at warp speed. All their DBs run and hit. They have multiple defensive linemen who will fucking rock you. I think it's kind of scary and I'm fascinated to watch. At the end of the day, football's entertainment. He knows what he's signing up for. I'm rooting for it to go well. I think him winning or just competing and have the game close would be one of the coolest things we've ever seen. It also could get really ugly. And here's the other thing. I went to the gym the other day and I usually do this like a little circuit thing upstairs and I. I have like a set, like five or six things I do for like multiple circuits. And for whatever reason, there was like this lady in the area and I. I came at a different time than I usually did and I was like, you know, screw it. So I kind of started doing some other things and I just. One of those benches that you can kind of do free weights on. You can do sit ups. You can do a lot of different things on it. I just put my feet on it and did decline push ups. Like, I've been doing it my whole life. I want to do some push ups. Just put my feet up. It declined. You can use a medicine ball, whatever, but I didn't stretch or anything. It was like one of the first things I did after I kind of did the rowing machine to get the heart moving. And the first pushup I did, I felt like a back muscle pulled. And for the last three or four days, it's just like something's off in my back. You know what? I'm 41. Things that never happened before in my life just. And I'm not a professional athlete, but anyone, once you get in your late 30s, definitely into your 40s, you just start feeling things. You're like, God, I've never really felt that before. I've been doing that same thing for the last 20 years, and I've never felt this pain. Philip Burger's 44, so I would imagine toward the end of his career, the hits hurt a little more, a little harder to get up. I think we underestimate. This isn't 1987, you know, you're not technically allowed to totally kill people across the middle of the field. The one area, though, that allows you to be really, really physical is the line of scrimmage in the offensive and defensive lineman. Now you can say, well, you can't hit their feet and you'll get a flag for late hit. Okay, but you can still late hit them. And I'm rooting for this to go well. I'm a Phillip Rivers fan. I've been saying forever, do you see his press conferences? Do you know how good this guy would be on television? I, I, I. Nothing I feel stronger about than Philip Rivers. If he went into television, like Brady or Breeze or any of these guys in called games, I think he'd be a superstar. If Troy Aikman retired, I think you could throw him on Monday night and he'd be the next John Madden or John Gruden. I think he'd be that good. I'm very confident in that. His love of football, as we're seeing right now, strapping it up at 44 years old, he's not doing this for the money. Google how much he's made. I'll bet the number is over $250 million. Like it ain't a lack of cash in the bank. Now he's got a lot of kids and grandkids now, but I'm pretty sure Phillips probably invested pretty well, or at least safely. So I just think this guy's a football junkie. I just, I hope everyone knows, like, this could be a little scary for my man. Philip Rivers.
- [45:26]
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- [47:11]
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- [48:14]
Matt Kelley
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- [49:47]
Matt Kelley
Okay. Fired up to be back again with my main man Stucky from the Action Network. Big bets on campus Action Network podcast. And it turns out he's about to have a child that turns 99 percentile. Might have a little Trent Williams there in the baby or in the belly. So congrats to you stucky.
- [50:07]
Stucky
Thanks. Yeah, 22nd will be first time dad. So fingers crossed for good health and everything goes okay. But yeah, he's 99.9 percentile size across the board. So I was just telling you I'm going to train him to be a, a tight end that can quarterback sneak. That's the future. Like just I'm going to get an elite quarterback sneak skills. Like as soon as he's, you know, maybe three under center, let's start practicing snaps. I'm kidding. Do whatever he wants. But yeah, it's exciting and it'll be on a Monday. And the first thing I looked at, I'm very sick. Individual games that week. There was, there's one bowl, it's the famous Idaho potato bowl in the afternoon. I do have money on it, but. So yeah, I'm looking forward to that. But we're in the middle of the grind. There's no stopping kid or not.
- [51:15]
Matt Kelley
Yeah, I mean I, I think, you know, we don't know. We have a loose state but you know, if there was a chance, it was like a Monday night, you know, you had that wild card Monday Night Football game on. We, we'd have to set up some plans with the, the hospital. You know, we could be mid delivery. We got Niners, Eagles, you know, Monday Night Football we'll be dialed in. But I mean we got a lot going on. We're recording this Thursday night. Michigan's in shambles. You got T.J. watt who just went to the hospital. You got Philip Rivers, who's back. I don't even know. I honestly, I don't even. I don't even know where to start. Let's start in the National Football League. Let's just. I mean that's a pretty big story. Philip Rivers. I looked this morning. They're catching two touchdowns at Seattle. Do you expect him to be the starting quarterback Sunday afternoon?
- [52:09]
Stucky
I. I honestly, I usually have a take on most things. I have no idea. Like I would imagine if Leonard's healthy, he'll play, but I don't know. They must have signed him for a reason. He knows the playbook. I. If he does. I also have no idea how to price this game. We've never seen anything. We've never seen this. The guy is 45 grand year old grandfather just put on a couple pounds played in five years, gonna go out and start against on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. How do you price that then? I don't know. I mean it's close to impossible. I don't like the look at line for this. Obviously you gotta downgrade the Colts at the last week, upgrade the Seahawks for their win. But it was like three and a half. Is 14 the right number? I. I couldn't even tell you. I mean also the Colts secondary is not the same. Charvarius Ward, his. I don't know if his crazy is it.
- [53:00]
Matt Kelley
I know that's awful. Third concussion this year. Jesus.
- [53:03]
Stucky
And then you have Sauce Garner still hurt that Devar's, Buckner's. So their defense isn't the same. They're. They have an offensive line injury. So I don't know. I mean I, I really don't know what to expect. I don't know if he's going to start now. I will say I'll be tuned in but I won't be betting it. But yeah, you got to watch that. Who's not interested to see how it turns out? It could be a complete disaster. Or maybe he's semi serviceable. I assume he's going to try to look they're going to try to run Taylor a bunch. The Seahawks know that he's probably going to throw to Tyler Warren a bunch. Usually that's what the Seahawks make you do, throw underneath. And like if you're a usually a backup does this. They rely on their tight end a lot. But especially if you're like a 45 year old come like you're gonna, you want to get rid of the ball quick. Like can he get hit? Can he take a hit? That's another question. It I just, I have no idea. But it's gonna be fascinating to watch. From a betting perspective, your guess is as good as mine. Flip a coin.
- [54:03]
Matt Kelley
Did you have the audio on on the Steelers Ravens game on Sunday morning with all the games going on?
- [54:08]
Stucky
The what? The audio.
- [54:10]
Matt Kelley
Yeah. Like when you watch a bunch of games you just choose one game to have the audio on typically or how do you usually do that?
- [54:15]
Stucky
Well, it's funny that you asked. So normally, yeah, like NFL I. Unless there's a really big game that I want to watch then I'll just have that on. But usually I have like a red zone on my main with volume and then the TVs around it with the other games. But sometimes on a college football Saturday or college basketball Saturday, I will have and I have to be by myself because someone would you're going to say.
- [54:44]
Matt Kelley
Multiple audios going I have audio on.
- [54:47]
Stucky
All the TVs and I will be putting one lower a little bit. And then it's. If you ever walked in to a room when I'm doing this, you'd be like what is wrong? You need to lock this person in a psych ward.
- [55:00]
Matt Kelley
You're like Jeffrey Dahmer of football or something.
- [55:03]
Stucky
Every once in a while I do do that because. And then I'm, I'm. Because then I can catch more like I like someone will mention like an injury if I'm paying attention here or. And it's. If I'm like really wrapped up in the day and really excited, I'll do that. But it's yeah, usually just, just one game.
- [55:22]
Matt Kelley
Well, because you're right because like when there's like 7, 8, 6, however many games going like the morning slate, you just missed. Like if you just watch a game individually, you get pretty good nuggets. Like one thing that they said, like I typically have the audio on the best game in the morning and same in the afternoon with all the other games going around it. But I had it on the Raven Steelers game. I was going back and forth Raven Steelers and Bengals Bills with the audio. But when I was watching, when they had the audio on for the this, the Steeler game, there was like a stat that guys of 42 years or older because Rogers had just turned 42, had played like a combined. I think the number was like 75 career games in the NFL but 66 of them were Brady. So 67 of them. So it's such a small sample size. That's the thing with Philip Rivers. It's like if you remove Brady, it literally never happened with people like 42 years old, let alone 44, who has just been out with a four year break. Yeah, that, that's, I mean it's, it's going to be cinema. I'm with you. I might just wriggle a little on Indy though. Even if he had been playing, you would say Philip Rivers, kind of a bad matchup, can't move their defense really fast up there, let alone the break. I know his high school team makes sense, right? Shane coached him in, he knows the playbook. In San Diego you run across some guys like certain people, like for Brady it was Josh. For Peyton, him and Adam Gase, just like you know, Shane Styk and Philip Rivers, just like a football relationship that you just hit it off and you just talk the rest of your life about football. So I do believe that they probably talk. I think people would be shocked probably how often they'd actually talk over the last three or four years, you know, text like daily, you know, about, about like not like family, not about food, just like simply football. Like it's, it's probably really in depth geeky. So I'm, I, I think it's a, it's a fun story but let's, you gotta feel bad.
- [57:15]
Stucky
If you're Brett Rippon though, you're on the practice squad, all the quarterbacks are hurt and they're like let's call Philip Rivers. And yeah. So I'm fascinated to see what happens. I literally no idea what's going to happen and I have no idea how to price it. I have no idea how to bet it, it's a pure pass for me, but I will be tuned in.
- [57:36]
Matt Kelley
Remember John lynch, when Purdy messed up his elbow, said if they would have been able to win that game somehow, the plan was to get Philip Rivers for the Super Bowl.
- [57:45]
Stucky
Really?
- [57:46]
Matt Kelley
Yeah. He said that a couple years ago in like, like an off season interview. Like they, because you start looking around again like these guys when you're so desperate, like you're not gonna go, the ship's not gonna go down. Brett Rippon or whoever, the 49ers, you know, because by then the 49ers, Purdy was their third string quarterback. So it's like they had nothing. Yeah.
- [58:06]
Stucky
I mean, McCaffrey was throwing passes. Yeah.
- [58:09]
Matt Kelley
Because then even their backup, Josh Johnson had got injured as well. So it's just like, I, I do understand Indy. Like, are we gonna look Jonathan Taylor in the eye, let go down. At least he can respect our effort. So I, I, in a weird way, I, I probably would have done the same. I would.
- [58:25]
Stucky
Yeah. That's fascinating. I never even thought about that if the 49ers have won that game, what they would have done for super, like a team going to the super bowl without a quarterback and then having to find one, that would have been super cool. I never heard, I never heard that. Lynch said outside. That's amazing.
- [58:43]
Matt Kelley
Okay, let's, let's hammer some games. Let's just start with not a great game. Pretty big spread. I do think the Cardinals are just kind of circling the drain at this point. They're in shambles. Houston has serious life. Right. I mean, they are kind of rolling. I mean, C.J. i don't even know what his box score was last week against the Chiefs, but has a little mojo going. I mean, their defense is pretty incredible now, you know, take them to just blow people out. I wouldn't say that's like the Houston Texans, Mo. But I just think this Cards thing is really starting to fall apart. I mean, they've been blown out a couple times you and I talked about. They were like the best, like 3 and 8 team in the league. Every, they could have easily been eight, three. I mean, there was, they were probably like seven, eight plays away. But now this thing's getting away from at Houston, you know, D', Ameco, Casario, CJ. The pass rushers and their DBs. Their team hit so hard that that hit Petrie had across the middle was like, God, this feels like an old school throwback team right now. Even I heard Domico's like, yeah, sometimes you kind of miss being out there watching these guys flying around. I'm a hammer. The Texans this week -9 and a half.
- [59:51]
Stucky
Not my cup of tea. I mean the Texans, look at. They're probably at the close the peak of their market value. They're coming off games against what the Bills, Colts and Chiefs. Maybe they're. They come out a little flat. I could see they're just not a team I want to bet to win by a lot of margins. Having said that. So like we mentioned the Cardinals, how good they, how close they were in every game. I don't know who's going to play for the Cardinals. Like so they might just have no players available. I mean you're talking their receivers, they're down to like maybe just Michael Wilson. I think Marvin Harrison might not play Weaver. Their offensive line is now in shambles. Like Hernandez is on ir, Christian Jones, Paris Johnson is out there. Like they're without their tackles. They might be without both guards, their defense like Walter Nolan, Thompson, Melton, Mack Wilson's on ir. They are. I mean even their returners, their kick returner, punt return. They are. You look, you pull up their injury report. You. It's a, it's a CVS for C. Like it's insane on both, it's on all three phases. So yeah, all the offensive line injuries in particular might just be death for them. So not my cup of tea. But I don't think they'll be betting the Cardinals here. And you're right on the Texans. They are extremely dangerous. I know people like they say that about, say this about a lot of teams like you don't want to face this team, you don't want to face the Texans. If they, they should get into the playoffs, it looks like the last spot is probably going to be because if you look at the Texans, the Texans have their home against the Cardinals, home against the Raiders the next two weeks and then they have the Colts at home.
- [61:30]
Matt Kelley
And we're short in Indy, right?
- [61:32]
Stucky
I mean, yeah, Indy I think is done. So and the Texans right now said it eight that would they sweep down there at 11 wins. They're getting in and then it comes down to they win the division, a couple easy games but the Jags also go to Denver. So the, the biggest, the, the hardest game on the Texan schedule left is the Chargers. But with the state of the Chargers offensive line with that defensive line and it's not like the Chargers have a big home field advantage. That's their road game. Their other three are at home. The Texans are going to be extremely dangerous. Their offense is playing better. The offensive line has played better in the second half of the year. Also, like Woody Marks has given the run game some juice and then they're. I think one of the best things that happened at the Texans is when Nico Collins went out, then Nico Collins out, they had Christian Kirk out with injuries and these other. And then, you know, Stroud was out. These other receivers, these younger receivers had to step up, guys like Higgins and now they're, you know, they've, they're able, they were able to develop depth at wide receiver and they have some other reliable options outside of Nico Collins. So while the offense isn't great, you don't need it to be great. You, you just need this offense to be serviceable. And you know, they're still probably going to struggle to finish drives in the red zone, but this is, I think for my money, it's the best defense in the NFL. It's nothing fancy. It's, you know, we're going to line up, they're not going to like blitz a ton. They're not going to show a ton of exotic looks. Not Domico will change the game plan based on who they're playing. But it's just, look at that front, look at the secondary talent and you don't need to do too much. It's just a sound unit. And yeah, they can hit, they can get after the passer and they can cover. So there's really no weaknesses on that defense. So they get in and then like depending on what happens, like, there's a good chance Mahomes isn't in the playoffs. It looks like Allen will probably be. And by the way, Allen, the last two years against this Texans defense has been abysmal. They have tortured him and tortured that offensive line. And then you look around, it's like the other quarterbacks are going to be in here. Like Lawrence, Knicks may like all inexperienced young quarterbacks that like this Texans team on with their defense leading the charge, can certainly make a run. They are dangerous and the Cardinals are just so beat up.
- [64:02]
Matt Kelley
I think the one thing that separates I would say Houston, Seattle and Denver is like, you could have a good defense if you just have like a good front seven, like a dominant D line and kind of get by with some random DBs. You know, I'd say the Rams or somewhat like that. When you have, I mean, I. Listen, Lassiter is from Georgia, so it's not like he. He's coming from UC Davis here, but you start turn him into a good player. Stingley is a stud with Petri. So all of a sudden you got DB talent and dominant pass rushers that there is no nothing you can do. Right? I mean, that's. That.
- [64:32]
Stucky
That's what the ultimate flex like, that's like the Seahawks are able to do this too is. And the Broncos. The Broncos blitz a lot like the Seahawks don't blitz at all. And they can get pressure in a lead rate. Texans can do the same. That gives you so much flexibility. If you can get. That is the key to an elite NFL defense in 2025. So you can get pressure without blitzing. And all those teams that you mentioned certainly can do that.
- [64:58]
Matt Kelley
Well, the check. The checkdowns, when you have elite team speed in your defensive backfield, the checkdowns, instead of going for seven yards, get tackled like two yards, you know, so it's like you're not really moving the ball. You can't just dink and dunk them to death because their team speed to get up close is like, you know, cushion is actually not a cushion. Like, you see some of these slow defenses, you know, guys are wide open. You're like, they're just. It doesn't. Nothing you can do. That's to me, kind of the Rams downfall is like, do you trust their secondary? You know, is it good enough? And you know, I don't know.
- [65:31]
Stucky
Yeah, that is the question with the Rams, I think because in. In the nfc as opposed to the NFC is going to be a war and now you can get away with that. Against the Eagles, your secondary issues, although their secondary got roasted for a half, I mean, that was. Is that the last time the Eagles offense looked good? Maybe the Giants game. So. But you look at the NFC playoffs, the Packers.
- [65:57]
Matt Kelley
Cooper was locking down. What's his name? Wait, what's that Cooper De Jean was. He had some Sweet plays against McConkey.
- [66:06]
Stucky
He was. Yeah, he. He looked great in space there. Yeah. The Rams, I mean, I don't know, maybe you can get through the nfc. There's not like the Bears are running team. The Niners can throw it. The Seahawks, they want to run it, but they certainly can throw. The Bucks are. Are fading. Their offense has been very bad. We'll say they have had some injuries. The Eagles can't throw it. So maybe the. The Rams. I mean the Rams offense is so good, it might not.
- [66:34]
Matt Kelley
Well, let's talk about that game because I. That's another. I'm gonna go. You know, Lions coming off a long week, get some offensive momentum. They got a lot of team speed. Obviously St. Brown is a badass. Maybe he wasn't as hurt as we thought, but like I, I don't think anyone questioned his toughness before that game. So it's like yeah, I, I, when Jockey made off, he was like 45, 50% and just toughed it out. Jameson Williams has really exploded since Gamble, since Dan Campbell kind of kicked, you know, Johnny Morton to the side and like if you have some secondary issues, you know, obviously the Lions offensive line is not nearly what it has been the last couple years. But you know, Gibbs in space, I mean now Landman's, I don't know, look pretty damn good. But I, I'm hammering the Lions, you know, this weekend plus five and a half again. The Rams are, you know, probably a higher version of the Chargers, but it's not, you wouldn't say exactly a home field advantage right at. So fight for them. So I, I do think that extra, that extra week, I think also if you're the Lions, like that game against the Cowboys just gave you life. I mean their season was kind of on the line and now, you know, this is pretty big Dan Campbell week. But like, you know, assuming Seattle wins, it's not like when you look up at the standings, the Rams the number one seed, but you're playing the lines and then what? They have a short week, they got to go to Seattle. I mean this is a massive four day stretch, you would say, I mean kind of must win if you're just going to give, yeah, I'll give Seattle the benefit of the doubt at home on a short week. So let's just assume you lose that game, all of a sudden you lose this game against the Lions, 49ers, beat the Titans, you know, beat the Bears, beat the Colts. You know, this is a little more jumbled, I think than, than people, the casual. I hear a lot of people say, oh, Ray, I'm going to win the Super Bowl. It's like they're going to be the, you know, one of the top seeds. Like are we sure?
- [68:15]
Stucky
Yeah, it's that, that is a huge game on Thursday. I'm looking forward to that one next week. I have nothing here. Like I'm, I'm pretty close to market. This will pro. Like this will probably come down where the lines could have an advantage is McKay will get a little too conservative at times and maybe like settle for field goals even though he has an elite offense. And you know that especially as an underdog, Campbell's gonna go balls to the wall and be really aggressive. Oh yeah. Advantage Especially like when you're trying to pull off the upset.
- [68:43]
Matt Kelley
His secondary stinks too. So it's like, it's not like he's stopping anybody.
- [68:47]
Stucky
Yeah, that's my biggest concern here is can the lines offensive line hold up against the Rams defensive line. And I mean maybe you get Kirby Joseph back. I think he was at practice today. But you lost Brian Branch and that secondary with all the injuries that they've had, like, and they play man, and they blitz which is just asking for trouble against Stafford and those receivers. But can the Lions match them scores? Yes, certainly. I, this will probably come down to like three or four lines. Fourth downs they are I think all of their last seven. So maybe they're due to get some fourth downs. But I'm pretty close to market here. Kirby getting Kirby Joseph back would help a lot though. But I got nothing there. Really good one though, especially for the lines. Like if you look at the lines right now, the they, they have, they have the Steelers at home next week and we just saw Watt is in the hospital so hopefully he's okay. But we'll see what, what happens there. But right now they're in the eight hole so they're one game out and of and they're behind the Bears. And I mean the NFC, Matt, you could have seems to get to 11 wins and don't get in this year. So they're one game back. They're what, five and a half six point dogs here. They lose this and the Bears play the Browns. They're seven and a half point favorites. They're two back and now they did already beat the Bears. So all you got to do is be one back and then you can catch the Bears in the finale because they, they play Chicago. But it's outdoors. Late December golf outdoors might not be the best spot. And the lines, they also go to Minnesota, you know, not the easiest place to play. But Chicago, they have to, they don't have an easy schedule either because it's going to go right down the wire. Chicago has, you know, they have the Browns this week. He would hope they get that win.
- [70:46]
Matt Kelley
This is, this is a massive game for them.
- [70:48]
Stucky
Yeah, you can't mess this up. You cannot mess this up. But then they, they have the rematch with the packers at home. They, then they go to San Francisco and then they host the Lions. So those are. You got the Browns as we got to win this game is in a tough spot. Right. Like sandwiched in between the packers games. After that physical game, I think I might have to take the seven and a half with the Browns. The Browns offensive line injuries might scare me off. They are like down to. They're like 12th combination. They're center. Just when I are. They might be down both tackles, both guards. I. The injury report is. I think they were all out again today. But I will say this like the total, this is going to be like 5 degrees. The total is in the 30s. The Bears run these really bad. The Browns run these really good on the year now. Maybe last year, last week they gave up all those rushing yards of the Titans. Maybe Malik Collins went on is that important. I doubt he's like Aaron Donald on steroids because like that's what you'd have to assume based on what they did last week without him. I still think they're a really good run defense, so this should be a lower scoring game. It's a tough spot for the Bears. I might take the seven and a half with the better run defense, but the Browns offensive line issues are scary. But yeah, these NFC races, these games over the next two weeks and a lot of times don't, don't just pencil in the wins. You see this every year in the NFL.
- [72:17]
Matt Kelley
Yeah.
- [72:17]
Stucky
When you just say like, all right, this one will be a win. It's about next week. You see these teams, especially in week 18, when you like it's a team that's dead, like a team that needs to win. We see at least one upset every year. So yeah, I'm looking forward to these next four weeks.
- [72:31]
Matt Kelley
See, that's the thing. Like the Lions, the Rams, the Broncos, Green Bay, you know you're going to get the best effort by both teams. But like if you're the Bears, you're coming off a loss, but everyone kind of gives you the win because it was pretty impressive.
- [72:43]
Stucky
Yeah.
- [72:43]
Matt Kelley
And then you're like, well, we get them at home here in a week and all of a sudden, you know, Miles Garrett's sack and Caleb Williams a couple of times Junkins bus off a 50 yard run. You're like, wait, were down 17 to 10. It's freezing cold in the third, late in the third quarter. Things get like you said, these cold games. It's why, you know, Denver hosting Green Bay. Denver had the equivalent in college, like Saban always did before the Iron bowl. He would play Mercer, he would play McNee State or whatever. LSU always did that before they played Alabama. And that game was a joke. You had the Raiders. Right. And I did. That's, that's an old timer.
- [73:22]
Stucky
One of the luckiest covers I will ever have. In my life. I'm sending Christmas cards and flowers to Brandon Jones and his family for that delay of game.
- [73:32]
Matt Kelley
And who calls a delay of game in that spot with like 5 seconds, 10 seconds left?
- [73:36]
Stucky
Unbelievable. And I'm sending Christmas cards to Pete Carroll for kicking the field goal. I was watching that. I was standing up. So, like, he. He completed the pass and I was like, stood up off my couch. And then I saw. I saw him, like, reach over him, and I'm like, are they gonna throw a flag? And then I, I. The announcers like, what a silly play. And I saw the play. So then I'm like, oh, my God. Kick it, kick it. And then the announcers, they're not showing the sidelines on what they're deciding. The announcers are like, and here comes the field goal team. I was like. But then the veteran me is like, he's gonna miss it. He's 100% gonna miss it. Who's just been tortured for 20 plus years, betting. So then I'm on the edge of my seat, like, don't. Don't bring me all this way and miss this field goal. And then it was like, I think it was the only. It was probably had to be the only time in NFL history that the A team that lost hit a walk off field goal.
- [74:30]
Matt Kelley
Did you hear Pete's logic on it? Do you believe, like, he thought they had a little more time and that he'd get an onside kick and then throw a bomb?
- [74:38]
Stucky
I mean, technically, if you had like, I think he got too much flack for it because number one, what else are you gonna do? Like, yeah, if there's one second left and then you need like eight, nine seconds, right? Like, then you'd have to kick the field with that. Because if you try to score a touchdown, the time's gonna run out, right? So the only way, if you're down 10, the only way you could ever win, there needs to be like 10 seconds. You have to kick the field goal then, which only takes like five seconds. Then you need to onside kick it, and then you need to get the ball back around midfield, and then you run around, throw a Hail Mary. It doesn't matter if time runs out because that's the last play of the game. So from that sense, it makes sense. But with five seconds left, it doesn't matter either way. Like, what he should have said is just like, we'll get. We got reps for the field goal team and no one got hurt, right? Like, you don't get anyone hurt on A. A field goal, but I probably will pay for that. The gambling gods will make me pay, but that I will never, probably ever cover like that again in my life.
- [75:42]
Matt Kelley
But you're right, the Broncos, that's my logic. So Denver gets the. Gets a little bit of a patsy. It's not like a lot of guys probably hit the town. They don't need to go to the ice bath. Green Bay, Chicago. The second half, I mean, there were plays where guys paint on the helmet was coming off. That that thing was the war zone. I earned a lot of respect for the Bears. Like, we knew they were good, but that was like the mental and physical toughness they showed.
- [76:04]
Stucky
They were on the brink of getting blown out.
- [76:06]
Matt Kelley
Caleb making plays, Ben Johnson dialing up some plays. It was really impressive. But to me, that's both teams on, like, Monday, you know, like, when players talk about, you know, sometimes I'm not. I'm not feeling right till Wednesday or Thursday. After big games that has that type feel, then they go on the road to Denver. Especially when you got Chicago next week. Not that I think they're going to have a letdown here because all these games are big. I just think that's a tough physical spot when Denver kind of gets a patsy and you play, I don't know, your most physical. I mean, especially, you know, they were just coming off the Lions game, which. The Lions game. I know it was a short week, but it's much more like Bill's Bengals. Right. Just kind of flinging around. You know, it's a. It's a different toll on your body at the highest level. So I'm going to take Denver as the dog in this spot. I don't feel great about it because, you know, Bo Nicks against that defense. But part of it is, even at the end of that Bears game, they were just huffing and puffing. Right? And rightfully so. I mean, it's. These games are freezing cold. There was one visual where Caleb was in the. In the huddle calling the play. You could tell, like, he has to be because you're not able to get the same wind. He's flying around. I. I can't even imagine how all those guys felt, which. I love it. I mean, I. I thought that was like, as riveting of a half as we've had this year. Just on the edge of my seat watching that game. Yeah, the first two games were entertaining. The two big ones, the Ravens, Baltimore and Cincy Bengals, that was on a different level from a physical standpoint of, like, this Feels like mid January, which I, it's not Green Bay. I mean I have money on them to make super bowl, but Chicago, it's like, God damn, they brought it. So I, I, I just wonder if Green Bay can match that intensity for three straight weeks because they're going to have to bring it next week again, right?
- [77:49]
Stucky
Yeah, it's, it's not an easy spot for them going on the road after that with the Bears again next week. This game s similar to the Bears. This game sandwiched in between those two huge divisional games. It was a really physical game. Broncos pretty much had, you know, what it amounted to. A walk through Broncos. By the way, Broncos have won 10 straight. Patriots have 110 straight. Both may close as home dogs with both starting quarterbacks. So without a quarterback injury, that has only happened one time since 1980 and it might happen twice this weekend. The only time it ever happened was never, not in the regular season. So AFC championship game 2005. Steelers had won 10 straight. We're hosting the Patriots and Brady were plus two and a half lost 41, 27. It's the only time it happened since 1980. Might have it twice this weekend. I did. From a matchup perspective, I like the packers are going to play a lot of zone. Nick struggles a lot more against zone. The Broncos are going to play a lot of men single high love is really good against that. So there's some matchup things that I like for the packers here and I'm getting the better quarterback. But from a spot perspective, home dog, it's 110 straight getting the packers in a tougher spot. I don't hate your logic.
- [79:14]
Matt Kelley
One thing is, you know, Ben, the Midwest Kyle is just, he'll just run until the cows come home. You know, let's face it, Sean likes to pass. You know, I mean, Sean's just not gonna. Sean's Andy Reid, right? I mean, Ben will just, I mean at the end of the day, he would run it 50 times a game if it's working. And that work to his benefit in that game because it wears you down. That's Kyle's whole logic of the Shanahan family is in these big games when we're all equals in cold weather, you're not just going to throw for 400 yards, right? And it's one of games. And that's, you know, I think why they got back in that game on that long drive, they hand the ball off and I just think Denver, it's like Sean's like, watch my guy Bo Nix throw. Another incompletion. That's what makes me nervous. Like you said. I mean this game is. The Bills were in major trouble, bro. I mean the Bengals were driving and I, I thought it was 28, 25. I'm like, he's going to score. They're going to be down 10 point. This is how this thing's kind of going to end for them.
- [80:12]
Stucky
Just 28, 18 before then just smoke.
- [80:15]
Matt Kelley
You're right. And that pick was just, I mean it was your mouth hits the floor moment. And then obviously the next play, there's another one that's a little freakier, but that saved their season.
- [80:35]
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Matt Kelley
All.
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- [84:57]
Matt Kelley
You know, I know I, I know you like the Bills. I think a lot of people are going to hammer the bills in this spot. I they're just not very good on defense. Now the New England. You know Joe Burrow looked like LSU Joburg. I mean he was, he came out that game in the beginning those first couple drives like holy, he's good. You know and you know, can Drake may do that? He's been doing that against easier competition. I, I just think the Bills defense really Scares me. I mean, they are, to me, closer. Like a Lions operation. Now they got this quarterback who's superhuman. He had a couple runs in that game. It's like, are there even defenders around? Like, where are you guys? He had, like, one that should have just been, like, a first down for, like, you know, it was like a big third down. He just kept running. It's like, where is everybody? It's crazy.
- [85:40]
Stucky
That was one of my favorite bets that I placed this year to watch. I had the over. I got SVP shouted me out on bad beats the other day for a Snover. I've been talking about snovers for, like, 15 years, which is when there's like an inch of snow on the ground. So you can't have, like a foot because then you can't move. But there's like an inch of snow on the ground, and there's no. There's not a lot of wins. These games historically have gone over at like a 63, 64 clip.
- [86:11]
Matt Kelley
Didn't Shady McCoy have a big game in the snow?
- [86:15]
Stucky
The defenders, number one. You can't. Brady always talked about this. I love playing in the snow. I mean, they. They. They put. They were up like 35 nothing at the end of the first half in a snowstorm against the Titans. I think one year, the end of the first quarter was like, with Moss. They scored, like, on their five. Five touchdowns and five drives in, like, the first quarter. But you as a D. As a D back, you. The receiver knows where they're going. So you can't. Like, it's a running back, too, if you're a linebacker. They know where they're cutting. Pass rushers can't get any footing, so quarterback has all day. They know where the receivers are going, and we saw that last week. And like, elite quarterbacks in the snow without wind can just. It was just awesome to watch. No, I do like the Bills here.
- [86:56]
Matt Kelley
I like.
- [86:56]
Stucky
Look, the Bills defense does have issues, and it's not. It's nowhere close to an elite unit. We'll see if they get Bosa back, which will help. But the Patriots, their offensive line, they're gonna be without their left tackle. I think that's big because the Bills can still get pressure, especially if Bose is back. And their left tackle, their rookie Campbell's been playing well. Now they have the Darian Lowe, who's not very good. Might be a major issue in this game. The other thing, there's a couple things that I like here, but number one, I just need Josh Allen to win the game. There's not many quarterbacks, if any, that I trust right at this moment to go out there and get me a win if I need it and for what it's worth in his career if he's a dog or a favorite of less than 3 so I just needed him to win the game. He's 30 and 14 against the spread. Historically only Brady and breeze are better. He's 1882 against the spread in that spot and just overall when it spreads between three and three so like competitive game he's 19 and seven against the spread 73%. But the Patriots look they've been great. May's been great but they've also been a little bit lucky. They're 14 of 18 on fourth downs, number one in the NFL. Their opponents are seven of 22. That stuff adds up. They've also had 15 fumbles, only lost seven. They've recovered 70% of their opponent's fumbles. Here's where I think and when they met the first time the Patriots to beat the Bills in Buffalo to their Credit But Buffalo 11 penalties and three turnovers and the Patriots won on a walk off field goal. The Patriots run defense is also playing at an elite level at the time but they've lost Milton Williams and since week 11 they're 31st in rush success rate allowed. So I think the Bills will be able to get the run game going a bit more and one of the biggest problems with the Patriots because look the Bills are going to play a lot of zone. May's been shredding zone is one of the biggest problems with so they're going to move the ball but where the Patriots really have issues is in the red zone when the field shrinks because May's deep ball has been amazing. The Patriots on the season are 24th in red zone touchdown percentage on offense they're dead last on defense so I think the Bill's going to be able to finish off drives. Look they had a pick last time they had a cook fumble that killed two long drives and this Patriots run dude is just not the same. So I think the Bills go into Foxborough and get it done. I will say variable has been very good. He's 60 against the spread off off of by Patriots coming off of a buy here but I'm gonna trust Alan to get it done make this race a little more interesting. Although all the Patriots have to do is beat the Dolphins and the jets at home and then no matter what happens in this game they will win the division. They also go to Baltimore next. But I think the Bills get a dump. Should be a really, really fun game.
- [89:36]
Matt Kelley
Okay, I, I shorted J.J. mcCarthy last week. You did not. Well, you just took the Vikings that you weren't necessarily believing.
- [89:44]
Stucky
Yes, I wasn't buying McCarthy.
- [89:45]
Matt Kelley
He actually had, you know, pretty solid game for his standard. Obviously they're playing the commanders who. Part of your logic was bro, this is the worst defensive secondary you might ever see. And that was true. Throw a bunch of touchdowns. Little different animal going into Dallas coming off a loss, long week. I mean even if the Eagles which they should take care of the Raiders, they still have life, right? And they're still alive. Jerry even talked about. I saw some quotes this week so I like is J.J. mcGregor. Carthage can have back to back weeks where he's like throwing touchdowns. So I, I guess I'm just going to stick with that logic. I know I got burned once, but I'm going to take the Cowboys in this spot. Minus five and a half.
- [90:26]
Stucky
Sunday Night Football again, different number, but I'm against you. I have some Vikings. I just think the line's too high. This Dallas defense, it's better with Quinn Williams, but it's still not trustworthy. The Vikings offensive lines getting healthier. Their defense is still a problem. I think it's a bit too many. We're asking Dallas to win by margin here. Like that's, it's. I think this is getting too high. Am I going to be nervous about McCarthy?
- [90:51]
Matt Kelley
Yeah.
- [90:51]
Stucky
But like O' Connell told him to just go out there, let it rip and he saw his mechanical issues especially like throwing left and he looked a little better. So he'll at least have some confidence here. We'll see. We'll see if CD Lamb goes with his concussion. I didn't see his status today. I thought he was definitely going to be out the way that he was like fencing. But yeah. Oh, by the way, one last note. The Patriots have 10 wins. Seven of the quarterbacks they beat are either rookies or no longer. The quarterbacks they beat dart Bryce, Young, Flacco without Chase Fields, Pennix, Gabriel Ward, Rattler, Tua and Baker. I mean that's as easy as it gets. It's easy a schedule NFL by far. But I do think the Cowboys might have life. They win this game.
- [91:36]
Matt Kelley
They.
- [91:36]
Stucky
They host the Chargers who are in trouble. I really like the Chiefs this weekend. We can talk about that next. But this Eagles team is broken and it really reminds me of 2023 and in 2023 they had a. It was with Brian Johnson Coordinator much maligned. Right. The offense had major issues. Everyone was talking about it. Everyone knew it. Now, they started off hot. They won a bunch of overtime. They won a bunch of close games. And like I remember the commanders in overtime. They beat the Bills in overtime in a game that they should have lost like 10 times. And they started off, I think, 10 and 1, 9 and 1. So even better than this year. And then they fell apart. They lost five of their last six. They lost the division to the Cowboys and then they got blown out. Blown out in Tampa, 32 to 9. It's the same exact vibes. I mean. And by the way, that year, they lost as an 11 1/2 point favorite in December at home after a Monday night game to the Cardinals. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
- [92:48]
Matt Kelley
Spread around. It was. Then they have a big comeback. The Cardinals.
- [92:52]
Stucky
Yes. They also lost in December to a Pete Carroll team with a Geno Smith backup. They lost to the Seahawks when Geno was out and Drew Locke beat them in this meltdown.
- [93:07]
Matt Kelley
Jackson Smith, game winning touchdown, right side of the end zone. It was a dime, so, yeah, two dimes. Remember, he had to drive the whole field. He had DK on a bomb and then he had Jackson Smith for the walk off.
- [93:18]
Stucky
Yes. Was that sick?
- [93:20]
Matt Kelley
Yeah, it was Monday Night Football.
- [93:21]
Stucky
Yeah. Yeah.
- [93:24]
Matt Kelley
Did you see today? And I don't think this is random. Jeffrey Lurie gave a bunch of. He did an article with Mike Silver and I think he wants to like, support and show, like, hey, we're not giving up. Because he had some quotes when Silver asked him if this season's like anything a couple years ago, and he said, nothing like it. Absolute opposite. We have a Super bowl defense and great special teams. Our offense will get it going. I'm not worried at all. He also said on the turnovers, we had a lot of turnovers, but some of them were flukes.
- [93:59]
Stucky
Wow. Well, turning it over two times.
- [94:02]
Matt Kelley
First quarterback, their defense with Patricia was leaking oil too, that year, right?
- [94:06]
Stucky
Yes. Yes, it was. Yeah.
- [94:10]
Matt Kelley
Bradbury.
- [94:12]
Stucky
Yeah. Their defense was falling apart at the end of the season. I mean, they gave up like 30 something to the Cardinals that in that loss. You know, they let Drew Lock come back on them. They got destroyed at the. At the Giants. They got destroyed at Dallas. They gave up. They were given up. They got the oh against the 49ers. Remember the 49ers. And that's what it all started, the slide. The 49ers put up like 45 on them in Philly. It was like 45 to 17 and yeah. So their defense also. So their defense now is more super bowl caliber. But the offense to me might be more broken. Like, it's.
- [94:48]
Matt Kelley
It is the start receiver doesn't like the quarterback. I mean, it's evident.
- [94:52]
Stucky
And then the offensive line is way worse and injured. And yeah, the play calling, it's just a bunch of hit trouts. There's no creativity. Hertz isn't running the ball at all. Like, that's one of his biggest assets.
- [95:04]
Matt Kelley
He won't. He's. He's like Anthony Davis who wants to be a power forward, not a center. Jalen Hurts wants to be like Joe Burrow. And he's not like Justin Herbert with a broken hand was like, you want to run the plays used to call in San Francisco for Kaepernick. I'll do it. Like, whatever. Herz is not. They just call pocket passes.
- [95:23]
Stucky
I mean, that's. Yeah, it's like when. Remember when. Like, that's like Russ at the end of his career when he tried to just be a pure and it like that. That's not what makes Russ. And Russ can't do that. Right. Like, it's. That's. This isn't like Herz isn't going to be the guy that sits there like Burrow and just. He needs to use his legs. It's one of his assets that makes. Puts the defense in conflict. Also makes the running game go more. Do they have all kinds of issues. Would it shock me if they got upset by the Raiders? Probably. The Raiders are so bad. But I do think with Pickett, he can at least move around, which you need to do. Like, Gino just takes crippling sacks. Pickett can at least move around, move outside the pocket. Because the Raiders offensive line is one of the worst I've ever seen with the injuries.
- [96:09]
Matt Kelley
What's crazy about Jalen, too, as a runner is like his running back instincts are like a running back. Like, he's very. He doesn't take big shots when he's in the space. He's got a very instinctive, like, feel, you know, when he's outside the tackle box moving. And he's not. He's actually really good at it. Like, I mean, it's, you know, avoiding hits. It's not like he's getting Molly whopped, like, down the field like Lamar when he was younger. Like, he's. He's pretty natural at avoiding it. So it's not like. And it's 2025, this is 1987. You're not going to get killed. So, yeah, like, and he's already been. He got $250 million. So it's like what I, I don't understand but clearly that is an emphasis. We don't do this anymore. Like, we don't run those plays.
- [96:51]
Stucky
Yeah.
- [96:51]
Matt Kelley
Like I would like institute like the option with him and Saquon and probably dominate.
- [96:56]
Stucky
Yeah, you got some elements of it. They need to use some play action, some motion, like more under the center.
- [97:02]
Matt Kelley
But Herbert's legs killed the Eagles. I mean, he saved their. Save the game.
- [97:06]
Stucky
Yep. So yeah, they played the Commanders twice there and then they played their. So their schedule is, is fairly conducive here. But if they drop one of the games, the most likely game that they'll, they'll lose. If the Cowboys can win out is at Buffalo. Like, I don't see them winning at the Bills with the state of their offense right now. But are they going to sweep Washington? I don't know this team like the way that they play. They can't get margin in anybody. But. And by the way, like the, the Cowboys, the Cowboys need to win out. I don't think that the Eagles are going to lose out with their schedule, bro.
- [97:47]
Matt Kelley
If they lose to the Raiders this weekend, that, that would not be a safe environment. Walk into that train, you know, from.
- [97:54]
Stucky
Petulo. Better start getting the cleaning supplies for the eggs on his house. So can the Cowboys win out? I mean, they have the, they're at the Commanders at the Giants the end of year. Those will be easy games because those are like division rivals that'll be up for those games. But they host the Vikings this week and then they host the Chargers and I think the Chargers are done like the Chargers. They got a winner of the Eagles. They were out. Gained by 130 yards. They averaged 3.8 yards per play. They were, they had five turnovers. The Eagles turned over five times and they had the ball in overtime at the 10 with a chance to win. So. And why is that? Well, you have the Herbert hand, so I really like the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs haven't covered in five straight. I think this is the bottom mark now. They've taken some money. It's the five and a half now. Anything under six. It's a short week for the Chargers going on the road outdoors and like it's going to be like 0 degrees. Probably not great for Herbert's hand. But this offense right now is incapable of functioning, especially on the road with the state of their offensive line. It's, it's decrepit. I mean, and what They've done on the road this year since their offensive line injuries. They got. They lost by 30 at Jacksonville, they lost at the Giants. They barely beat the Titans and they barely beat the Dolphins. That's what they've done on the road. And then if you look since week four, since they've had the offensive line injuries, The Chiefs are fifth in EPA per play on offense. The Chargers are 25th. Like this is a trending to a bottom 10 offense. They gave up a 70% pressure rate, the highest of any game this year to the Eagles who didn't have Jalen Carter and Herbert got sacked seven times. The Chiefs have a higher pressure rate than the Eagles even when they do have Jalen Carter. So Chargers also play the highest rated zone in the league. This Chiefs offense has issues. The receivers are really struggling to get separation in man and but against zone, I mean their EPA per play is 75 higher again with against zone than it is versus man. They can still dink and dunk it down the field. The Charters want to present explosive plays. I think this is a great spot to back the Chiefs. They've had the much tougher schedule. They're 40 points better net points better than the Chargers. Short week on the road in the cold. Herbert with his hand offensive line is a disaster. Chiefs can still get pressure. Chiefs have some offensive line injuries but the Charters aren't the team that's going to. They're not the Texans. They're I think they're like 23rd and in pressure rate. I think this is the time to buy the Chiefs and it could get interesting. The Chiefs in order to make the playoffs I put. I put a little couch change bet on the Chiefs to make the playoffs. I think it's like they're like five to one. Obviously they need to win out. So they're. And if they went out they get the 10 and 7 and if they. We're assuming the Colts are done so we can throw them out. I think the Texans are in, the Jags are in, the Bills are in the past Broncos so. And then the winner of the AFC north. So then I think the last spot comes down to the Chargers versus the Chiefs. So you might say, well the Chargers have nine wins, the Chiefs have six. That's true. But Chiefs hosting this week could close the gap to 2. Then the Chargers are at the Cowboys. Won't be easy home against the Texans with the state of their offensive line, that's not going to be easy. And then they're at the Broncos with the state of their office line, that's not going to be easy. And then the Chiefs have the Broncos at home next week or one of the games and then they're at the Raiders and at the Titans. I think the Chiefs win this week. They're going to win out. So the question then becomes, can the Chargers win two of their last three against the Cowboys on the road, the Texans at home and at Denver? There's a chance that Denver is playing in week 18 against the Charters with a chance to clinch the one seed. And if they do, they let the Chiefs in. Who they would play if the Chiefs win the first game, which is just amazing drama.
- [101:59]
Matt Kelley
Chiefs are about could also be in a position where maybe they know they're going to be the 2 seed and would they rather just rematch the Chargers.
- [102:07]
Stucky
Or yes, there's a chance. It depends on what the Patriots do too. So the Patriots and Broncos the same record, but the Broncos have the tiebreaker. And by the way, in that scenario that I just mentioned, if the Chiefs and the chargers finished with 10 wins, the Chiefs win the tiebreaker on common games. Assuming the Chargers lose at Denver and at the Chiefs, is that the first.
- [102:27]
Matt Kelley
Tiebreaker for a division?
- [102:29]
Stucky
Division record, which would be the first. It's head to head then division record, whatever the, if that had whatever I just described, they finished 10 because they split. They would have the same division record assuming the Tripods lose at the Broncos and then it would come down to common opponents and the Chiefs would win. So they're not dead, the Chargers, they start just. I could see the charges going 0 and 4 like, couldn't you at Denver, at Dallas, at KC and home against Houston.
- [102:56]
Matt Kelley
That's why that loss to Philly was so bad or that loss for Philly because it's like they have no business beating you. You can't lose to a team with no offensive line, a quarterback with a broken hand. Bad, bad. And they're running back. Like, I, I, I didn't watch much, much North Carolina football, but all my buddies in the league like this guy, I remember watching like highlights of him like, okay, and then they take him in the first round even before he got injured. There's something, he just doesn't look very fast. Now, I'm not going to judge him in that Eagle game coming off the, the injury. But it's not like, I mean, I would say the running back crew so far this year. It's like I'd rather have a Menungi in like the seventh and some of these guys going on the first, you know, this is why people are adamant, like, don't take these guys high. You know, for every Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson, there are a lot of guys that are whiffs. And then all of a sudden you're like, wait, the best running back was a fourth rounder. So I'm with you there. Do you know who wins the tiebreaker of the Texans and the Jags? Do they finish with the same.
- [103:54]
Stucky
So Texans. Let's see. By the way, if you're. There's a. You're gonna be listening this after the Thursday night game. The Bucks playing the Falcons is an important game because if the Bucks win tonight, then they will clinch the tiebreaker of the Panthers if they split. So they play each other twice.
- [104:14]
Matt Kelley
I kind of like the Saints in that game. How about you?
- [104:16]
Stucky
Yes, I agree. Especially if I can get a 3. But if the Bucks lose on Thursday night and the Panthers win against the Saints, Bucks are in trouble. Panthers split. The Panthers and Bucks split and they finish tied. The Panthers would win the tiebreaker, but Texans Jags tiebreaker.
- [104:34]
Matt Kelley
So because assuming the Texans beat the Colts, they would be. Their division record would be 5 and 1. The Jags still need to take care of action in the division. They would still need to beat the Colts, and they would need to beat the. Beat the Titans. So they could both go 5 and 1 in the division and obviously they split.
- [104:53]
Stucky
Let's see. I can.
- [104:54]
Matt Kelley
It gets a little complicated. I guess it depends on who you lose to. Right. Like, who would. The Jags. What would happen if they finished with the same record? More than likely, looking at their schedule, it would probably be like the loss of the Colts, but I guess they could lose the Broncos too. Doesn't it kick into conference record?
- [105:09]
Stucky
It's pro. So if they finish tied, they're probably. That means. So they split the series. They split head to head.
- [105:17]
Matt Kelley
Yeah. Let's assume Jags lost division records of the Broncos. Yeah.
- [105:22]
Stucky
So then it would come down to common gains. Also probably tied. And then it will come down to conference record where Houston would have the edge because they're. If it plays out like we say, that Houston would be 11 and 2, Jags 10 and 3.
- [105:40]
Matt Kelley
That Bronco game's big. So the Texans have legit life.
- [105:45]
Stucky
Yes. Yeah.
- [105:46]
Matt Kelley
It's. It's for those of us that have their future to win the division. It's. It was dead until it wasn't. And now I play.
- [105:53]
Stucky
I had the Jags to win the division preseason, and on this week I played. It was like +350 this week. I played Texans +175.
- [106:14]
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- [106:44]
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- [108:41]
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- [108:43]
Matt Kelley
All.
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- [110:35]
Matt Kelley
Right now. Who do you think if you were betting, Seattle or the Rams, who wins that division?
- [110:41]
Stucky
Oh, that's a tough one.
- [110:43]
Matt Kelley
I think, I think common wisdom of people that just talk about football just are like placing the Rams there and.
- [110:49]
Stucky
It'S like I, I can see the Seahawks are their, their defense can beat anyone on any day.
- [110:55]
Matt Kelley
In a weird way too. The Niners because they play each other aren't sneaky dead. They've already beat both those two teams. They got the Titans, then they got the Bears and they got Philip Rivers. So I mean, and then they play Seattle last game of the season in San Francisco. So it's their schedule potentially broke. I mean the Bears game will be hard but again the NFL, you can never just go win. But I mean are the 49ers have a buy losing the Titans, that feels like impossible, doesn't it? Yeah.
- [111:20]
Stucky
The 49ers aren't dead and you're gonna have one of these teams gets a loss. Yeah. Next week on Thursday. And the Rams, Rams better be careful this week. I agree.
- [111:31]
Matt Kelley
Let's end on the Steelers. Obviously that news with T.J. watt, I mean, you just not good. I mean, they don't just take random people to hospital in the middle of the week, something like that. And also, again, I'm not trying to speculate, but sometimes with stuff like that, you know, you're probably more likely to be gone for a while than just like, oh, I just missed a couple days.
- [111:49]
Stucky
Right? Yeah.
- [111:50]
Matt Kelley
So, I mean, all of a sudden, you know, we see this in the NBA. Sometimes that goes to hospital, there's a blood clot, and he's out for six weeks. You just, you just never know. They will be. They will err on the side of precaution with anything internally. We know that now. You know, DK had even Rogers, when he was interviewed after that Ravens game was like, he was just raving about his week of practice. I mean, clearly they got in his ass like, bro, we're paying you something. We need you to carry. He's playing Gunner.
- [112:15]
Stucky
I mean, it was sweet. He.
- [112:15]
Matt Kelley
He looked pretty awesome. But is he a guy, you know, doing that week in, week out, you know, Miami, I'd be. I didn't even know the Jets Dolphins game was going till like the three and out group text was like talking about the game, like, is this game is even happening? And I look at the box score. He throws for like 120 yards and they win by 24 points. I, I, it's like the jets, what a joke. But clearly the Dolphins. If, if I would have told you on December 11th that the dolphin, you know, two months ago that the Dolphins and Chiefs would have the same record, would you believe me?
- [112:47]
Stucky
Incredible. No, I thought the Dolphins might have the worst record in the league. McDaniels is gonna get fired, and now.
- [112:51]
Matt Kelley
Here they are gonna get extension.
- [112:53]
Stucky
Their run defense is playing really well. 8 chain. They're basically just running it. And then they're relying on. Now they've out of that some easy games. I mean, the Bills game is impressive.
- [113:02]
Matt Kelley
But two throws for like under 150 yards every game.
- [113:05]
Stucky
Yeah, they're just running it. And then the run defense is playing well. Their defense is playing better overall. Can they just line up and run it at the Steelers? I mean, that's what the Bills did. We'll see.
- [113:18]
Matt Kelley
Because you guys aren't dead. I mean, the Ravens.
- [113:22]
Stucky
But the Ravens have a tough schedule.
- [113:24]
Matt Kelley
I.
- [113:24]
Stucky
The Bengals aren't even dead. I sprinkled some of the Bengals 15, 17 to 1 to win the division. Because if they beat the Ravens this week, there's a chance that 8, 9 wins this division. And The Bengals win out. They finish 8 9. The Ravens still will be stuck at 6 wins. They go to Green Bay, they host New England and then they go to Pittsburgh. The Steelers go to Detroit. Next week, they host the Ravens and then they go to Cleveland. That's not going to be an easy game. Cleveland against their rival, wanting to end the Steelers season. And then the Bengals have the Ravens.
- [113:57]
Matt Kelley
The Dolphins, the Cards and the Browns.
- [113:59]
Stucky
Yeah. So if I think the. If the Bengals win this week, they're sneaky lie because the 89 could win the division. And if the Bengals get there, they would win all the tiebreakers if they get the 89 and all the teams are 8, 9, which is funny because they win the division record because that.
- [114:13]
Matt Kelley
Flacco win against the Steelers probably counting pretty big.
- [114:16]
Stucky
Right. They would have the best division record. So yeah, the rate. But the Ravens aren't dead. But they need this game. Like you're going to. Yeah. Host New England, going to Green Bay, going to Pittsburgh. It comes down to like is Lamar gonna. He's not healthy, is on target. Right. He's like he doesn't care.
- [114:35]
Matt Kelley
Yeah.
- [114:36]
Stucky
Is there a time where like it's this week, right. Like, okay. All of a sudden he looks like the old Lamar or does it never come this this year? So I don't know. I haven't been a Ravens game in weeks because of that. It's just hard to know. Like okay, is he at 70? He's at 60. 70 now is he going to be at 80 this week? Because he's had like a knee.
- [114:55]
Halion/US Soccer Sponsor Voice
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- [114:57]
Stucky
Toe injury. So I don't know. But right now you can't. I can't trust the Ravens. And then the scary thing about like the Ravens defense is playing well overall. I mean lastly, they give. They give up way too many explosive passing plays to Rogers. You got to give the Steelers credit for hitting them, but they can't. They don't get pressure. That's where they miss Mada Buk. They don't have elite edge rusher. So like if you can't get pressure on Burrow, he's going to pick anyone apart. So huge game. I think the winner that game, the Bengals lose their done obviously. But the winner of that game very live in the division I Steelers. It's a field goal. I think that's about right. Dolphins are playing very well, but in the cold, it's gonna be freezing to a historically not at his best. But so that's what the key can they steals run these show up here because it's Two in the cold. You're not gonna, presumably not gonna have Watt. They're gonna try to give it to a chain a million times. That's what the Bills did and you couldn't stop it. They run the same play, 20 some dimes, but you got a force to it, a throw in the cold here. So they have a huge advantage as far as the weather because TUA historically has been very, very poor in these conditions.
- [116:06]
Matt Kelley
I'm wearing sandals and shorts. The way you've talked about all these Midwest and Northeast games. There must be a cold, cold front going through, huh?
- [116:12]
Stucky
There's snow on the ground out here in Lexington, so it's not, not fun.
- [116:17]
Matt Kelley
Well, at least you got Kentucky basketball, which I heard someone say is not going well for the 25 million they spent on that roster.
- [116:24]
Stucky
A lot of grumblings here. So. Yeah, it's, it's.
- [116:28]
Matt Kelley
I watched a little, I watched some of that byu, the, the star freshman that played that second, that second half was sweet.
- [116:37]
Stucky
Yeah, it's. They were, they played. The funny thing is this kind of sums up Nil and like they like BYU with all their money now has someone who might be the number one pick in the draft. I think like the, if you look at those rosters, the, like they were playing Clemson, Clemson had two Mormons on their team and BYU had one. I think so. But yeah, byu, go watch. If you, if BYU is on tv, even if you're just like a casual fan of college basketball, if you like the NBA, this kid AJ Devan who had like, I think he finished with like 29 points, nine rebounds, seven assists. He's a player legit, legit talent. So. But Michigan is the story of college basketball. They are blowing everybody out of the water.
- [117:29]
Matt Kelley
Nil. Or just like good team, good team.
- [117:32]
Stucky
Like they, they hit in the portal. They have a good coach and Dusty May, but they, they've just been destroying teams. I mean, so they're number one. They ran. They're ranked number one. Analytically, everyone has them number one. It's so. And they might be double digit favorites all the way up until January 30th when they go to Michigan State. So they might be number one and undefeated for a long time, but I.
- [117:53]
Matt Kelley
Think Nil is sick. I mean, it's just like all of a sudden Texas tech, sweet football. BYU's got like Kobe Bryant on their team. It's like, count me in on Nil. Just, it's added a cool little element. Or when people fail and they have a high price like Texas boosters are looking around. We're going 9 and 3 paying 40 million or Kentucky basketball cutting 25 million checks. Calipari's talking about some dudes paying alimony to his wife on nil. I mean it's just, it's I, I'm all for 20, 25, man.
- [118:21]
Stucky
It's great. Yeah, it's fun. But on the when it's not fun, there's. People get questions and are and the patience is. Hey, we're, we're put this all the talking. This is Kentucky and Lexington. It's. This is what 21 million is. This is what 21 like.
- [118:37]
Matt Kelley
And like would that get him fired? Does it get you fired faster?
- [118:41]
Stucky
I don't know. They gotta. It ain't good. It's not good so far.
- [118:45]
Matt Kelley
Okay, snucky. Enjoy the weekend and have fun watching football. Talk to you soon, buddy.
- [118:51]
Stucky
Talk to you guys next week.
- [118:52]
Matt Kelley
Have a great night. See everyone later and we'll be back Sunday.
- [119:00]
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- [119:34]
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- [120:08]
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- [120:09]
Matt Kelley
All.
- [120:10]
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This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat everybody showing that school pride. Game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere adding ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo. No matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [120:55]
Matt Kelley
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- [121:22]
Stucky
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- [121:35]
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- [122:19]
Matt Kelley
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