The Herd with Colin Cowherd — 3 & Out: Reaction to Sam Darnold & Seahawks COMEBACK WIN vs. Matt Stafford & Rams on TNF

Release Date: December 19, 2025
Host: John Middlekauff (The Volume)
Main Theme:
A high-energy breakdown of one of the wildest Thursday Night Football games in recent memory — Seattle's improbable comeback win over the Rams — plus big-picture implications for both teams, analysis of Sam Darnold and Matt Stafford, and a look ahead at pivotal NFL and college football matchups. The episode also features betting analysis, discussions of playoff scenarios, and an exciting personal announcement regarding the show's future.

Episode Overview

John Middlekauff dives into the chaotic Seahawks-Rams TNF thriller, dissecting Sam Darnold’s redemption arc, Matt Stafford’s late-career mastery, and the emotional rollercoaster for both teams and fanbases. He’s joined by guest and Action Network analyst Stuckey, fresh off becoming a new father, for deeper insights and betting takes. The show also includes a special announcement: the 3 & Out podcast video is moving to Netflix in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Thursday Night Football: Seahawks 37, Rams 36 (OT) — An All-Time Comeback

Game Recap and Turning Points

• Initial Storyline:
  For most of the night, Sam Darnold and Seattle looked doomed, trailing 30–14 in the fourth, Darnold in “full meltdown mode” with two ugly interceptions.

  • Quote: “I’d be lying if I said I didn’t tweet 'ballgame' when the Rams went up 30 to 14… in what world could you overcome three turnovers against Matt Stafford?” — John (05:22)

• Special Teams Spark:
  The turning point came on a crucial punt return for a touchdown, completely flipping Seattle’s energy and hope.

  • Quote: “That punt return flipped the game. …If he just has the ball and gets tackled for five yards, I think we all agree there is a 100% chance [Seattle] lose[s].” — John (50:22)

• Darnold’s Late Redemption:
  Darnold led a game-winning drive late in OT, overcoming earlier failures.
  The key: a clutch throw to Cooper Kupp in overtime and a wild, “bananas” two-point conversion — a pass deflected and then casually caught in the end zone.

• Why It Was Special:
  Middlekauff compares the chaotic finish to classic Russell Wilson–era Seahawks weirdness and declares it “one of the biggest wins since Russell was in his prime.”

  • Quote: “That feels like one of the biggest wins… since Russell Wilson was in his prime. …Touched by an angel sometimes, some of their games.” — John (23:02)

Quarterback Analysis: Darnold vs Stafford

• Sam Darnold:

  • Brutal for three quarters (two INTs, inconsistent, fooled by coverage), nearly buried by narrative as a QB who can’t win big games.
  • But: “When they needed him most, he came through… That was a pretty big moment for a guy that — let’s face it — if 30 to 14 holds and they lose by 10+, the narrative would be 'You can’t trust this guy.'” (18:25)
  • Still: “Doesn’t mean I’m betting on Seattle to win the Super Bowl, but that confidence is real.” (19:44)

• Matt Stafford:

  • Playing “graduate-level” football: total control, making throws under pressure, “peppered” all night but unflappable.
  • “He’s not processing the offense the way Darnold is. …That’s a level of QB mastery you only see from the Bradys, Mannings, Rodgers — not resume, but command at the LOS.” (28:01)

• Defenses & Supporting Cast:

  • Rams secondary “isn’t the 2000 Ravens or the 85 Bears.”
  • Seahawks win “as a team,” leaning on defense/special teams and not needing Darnold to be Josh Allen.
  • Rams’ defense “let them down” despite Stafford’s brilliance.

Memorable Moments / Quotes

• On Darnold: “He’s an easy guy to root for, right? …What he’s done the last couple years is pretty remarkable when you think about how low his career once was.” — John (18:53)
• The crazy 2-point conversion:
  “That is a classic Russell Wilson Seattle play… Sometimes announcers are hyperbolic, but that was one of the craziest plays you’ll ever see.” (39:50)

2. Big Announcement: The Show is Moving to Netflix (2026)

• The video version will be hosted on Netflix starting 2026, joining other major sports podcasts like “Pardon My Take” and “The Ryen Russillo Podcast.”
• The audio podcast will remain unchanged on all platforms.
• John on Taking Risks: “It’s really the only way I know how to… go about your professional life — not being afraid to take chances. …I’ve been really aggressive. …like a draft pick, dating, business decisions. You never know.” (41:13)
• Shoutout to The Volume, iHeart, Colin Cowherd, and his entire production crew for elevating the show.

3. College Football Playoff & Bowl Season Preview (w/ Stuckey)

Playoff Format & Cinderella Debate

• The expanded playoff still leaves controversy and confusion, especially with tie-breakers in large conferences like the ACC.
• Middlekauff: “The non-Power Four should have their own playoffs, kind of like D1-AA… Football is dramatically different than basketball; you don’t need to include everyone.” (66:00)
• Stuckey: The reality of “betting events” dominating bowl viewing; expansion leads to more arguments, not fewer.

Game-by-Game Betting/Matchup Insights

• Oregon vs JMU: Ducks have wide talent gap; skepticism JMU can keep up, especially in the trenches.
• Oklahoma vs Alabama: Oklahoma’s defense, special teams (kicker!) give them the edge. “The Oklahoma offense can be very ugly, but this is going to be a low-scoring, competitive game.” — Stuckey (74:00)
• Miami vs Texas A&M: Great coaching, elite lines; keys are adjustments and in-game management (Mario Cristobal “horrible” on this front); Stuckey targeting first half under and Aggies in the second half.
• Ole Miss vs Tulane: Too much talent for Tulane, expects Ole Miss to win handily.

4. NFL Week 16: Betting Analysis & Playoff Picture

Texans/Raiders & Jags/Broncos

• John takes Texans (big favorite) and Denver (at home, dangerous if Bo Nix plays well).
• Stuckey zig-zags: likes the Raiders as a big underdog (“classic buy-low, sell-high spot”), citing trends historically favoring teams off a shutout loss.

Ravens & Steelers Playoff Implications

• Ravens-Patriots: John and Stuckey both back Baltimore, citing Lamar’s December dominance and Patriots’ charmed yet weak-schedule season.
• Steelers-Lions: Steelers’ heavy personnel could exploit Lions’ defensive matchups; both hosts expect Pittsburgh to move the ball via the ground and tight ends.

Chiefs-Titans: Flat Spot or Upset Alert?

• “The Chiefs are broken… their offense is a shell, offensive line battered, no run game.” — Stuckey (109:41)
• Chiefs possibly have more to gain by losing out and improving draft position than by grinding for hollow wins at season’s end.
• Stuckey plays the Titans plus points (and possible money line).

Packers-Bears: Overreaction and Injuries

• John not writing off Packers despite public sentiment; injuries (Parsons especially) devastating but expects a coin-flip game.
• Stuckey likes the over with both offenses able to adjust after just facing each other recently and defensive injuries mounting.

Niners-Colts: Rivers’ Challenge

• John: Niners should win unless Philip Rivers can muster 20+. “If I’m Salah, everyone’s up near the line. You’re not beating us deep.”
• Stuckey: Plays Colts plus the points based on Niners’ defensive issues (poor vs. run) and Rivers likely to look more comfortable at home with 49ers generating limited pressure.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Seahawks’ Comeback:
  “They came through, they were big, big hits, stuffin’ the run. Leonard Williams was a beast… What a win by Mike Macdonald. That’s a pretty big win on his resume.” (53:12)
• On Matt Stafford:
  “There can’t be a tougher guy in the NFL not named Philip Rivers than Matt Stafford. You can just see him… he can’t move anymore…but his command…” (29:31)
• Netflix Announcement:
  “If you would’ve told me a couple years ago you’re gonna be on Netflix, I’d be like, ‘Shit, am I in a crime drama?!’ …But this is just about the power of podcasting and taking risks.” (45:09)
• On New Father Stuckey:
  “He came at 1 o’clock on the dot Eastern on NFL Sunday… sitting in the nursery, couldn’t do anything, so just had my phone propped up, watching Red Zone.” (59:13 - 60:33)
• Wild 2-Point Conversion:
  “That was legitimately one of the craziest plays you’ve ever seen, especially given the situation and comeback.” (39:50)
• NFL Betting Logic:
  “One of my favorite spots: double-digit underdog gets blown out, is a dog again next week — no one wants to bet them, but that’s when you have to.” — Stuckey (91:53)

Important Timestamps

| Segment Description | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------|--------------| | Seahawks-Rams game recap & analysis | 03:50–39:30 | | Sam Darnold’s struggles and redemption | 05:22–23:46 | | Stafford’s performance and QB breakdown | 25:50–29:31 | | Netflix show announcement | 39:50–53:35 | | New father Stuckey stories | 59:13–62:08 | | College football playoff/bowl preview | 62:08–80:33 | | NFL betting breakdown: Texans/Raiders etc | 85:45–118:00 | | Chiefs-Titans/Packers-Bears/Niners-Colts | 108:23–126:24| | Outtro/new baby wrap-up | 125:55–126:32|

Style and Tone

John keeps his signature conversational, honest, and occasionally self-deprecating tone—balancing passion for football analysis with personal anecdotes and betting logic. There’s real admiration for toughness (Stafford), redemption (Darnold), and risk-taking (both in football and podcasting). Banter with Stuckey brings additional insight and humor, especially about the realities of parenthood and football obsession.

TL;DR

This episode is a whirlwind recap of a legendary Seahawks comeback on TNF, a deep dive into QB narratives (Darnold’s redemption, Stafford’s mastery), and a forward-looking take on NFL/CFB betting. John Middlekauff unveils the show’s upcoming move to Netflix’s video platform—framed as a big, necessary risk—and trades wild football takes with new-dad-guest Stuckey. Full of laughs, clear insights, and memorable asides for fans and bettors alike.