← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
3 & Out - The Big Game's Best Bets with Action Network's, Stuckey
00:55:28
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- [02:38]
Stuckey
The volume.
- [02:52]
John Midkoff
What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? John Midkoff three and Out Podcast hopefully everyone's doing well, living out there in the real world, having a good day, having a great week. I recorded last week at the end, I think on Thursday or Friday. I can't even all the days running together with Stuckey and I was going to put it out on Monday, but like I said earlier this week we had some stuff come up so I realized I'm going to be traveling, might not be able to record one, don't want to skip a day. So let's, let's put them out today on Wednesday and that is what we're going to do. So this will be our talk with Stuckey from All Things Gambling. I mean the line hasn't changed. The storylines and the themes of these two teams obviously haven't changed. We don't have much clarity on this. Drake May injury. I mean he's going to play Sam Darnold. I was told he was hurt and then his oblique look fine. He was slinging all over the last couple of weeks. So yeah, we'll hit everything from betting on the game to the trends to some props. We'll kind of dive deep into this matchup which Super Bowl 60 I almost said San Francisco, California the Super bowl festivities are in San Francisco. The game is in Santa Clara Levi's Stadium, which which I've seen a lot of football games there. And I actually saw the one and only super bowl that they hosted when the Broncos upset the Panthers. It didn't feel like an upset to me, but they technically by gambling standpoint, were a several point underdog. I think it closed like one and a half. But Von Miller, MVP and the rest of history and this one's for Pat, as John Elway said when Jim Nance handed him the trophy as he was the GM at the time. So you can watch the John Elway documentary on Netflix, where you can also see this podcast. So you can see all of our podcasts. All of our videos from three and out are up on Netflix, so make sure you go check that out and subscribe and if you listen on Collins feed, make sure you subscribe to three and out feed so you never ever miss an episode. We really appreciate you guys for riding along, coming along on this journey, which is a little football daily talk as we do right here. So let's, let's dive into tuscy. Back again, bittersweet, because the season is coming to an end. But before we hit record, we were talking college basketball, we were talking Mario Cristobal, who you know, Dabo goes on this rant about Ole Miss, but the University of Miami, they are, they will steal any player in their path. And obviously we got the super bowl because Seattle takes on the New England Patriots at Levi's stadium, where the last time San Francisco hosted that bad boy there was, I don't want to say a big upset, but the Denver Broncos were an underdog against the Carolina Panthers. And your boy who attended that game at the time, I mean, I definitely didn't have enough money to put. I think I put a total of around $5,000 on the Broncos. And it was an un, very uncomfortable amount of money at the time, a decade ago. And it was sweet. And I was there around the 50 yard line. That was badass. And now we get a game kind of game.
- [06:01]
Stuckey
Safety. Yeah, that's the Super Bowl.
- [06:04]
John Midkoff
No, this, that was Denver, Seattle. This was right, right?
- [06:08]
Stuckey
Yep, yep, yep. Got it. That was the Cam Newton. Don't go after the ball one.
- [06:12]
John Midkoff
Yeah, this was the, I think the first drive. Peyton had the noodle arm, but they drove and they scored. And then I felt so comfortable with Denver because I was doing like local radio post game shows for the Raiders. So I was just watching these teams in person, watching that Denver team for like the three plus years. Their defense was incredible. Their D line, Von Miller in his prime. Ware was still elite. Malik Jackson and Derek Wolf, people forget Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson were a problem inside travathan, Brandon Marshall, all their DBs, TJ Ward, they had a bunch of COVID corners. Remember Chris Harris Jr. Was their slot guy. They wrecked shop on defense. Now Peyton's arm didn't work, but if that defense was playing right now in the NFL, it'd be the number one defense by far.
- [06:57]
Stuckey
Funny thing about that Super Bowl. I mean there's a lot of like revisionist people like Will, you know, as time passes, you people remember certain things. Like it's all about like the Ravens winning the Super bowl in 2012. People think because it was Ray Lewis and Ed Reed that was all about their defense. But they were over the hill Their defense stunk. That was all Joe Flacco just going on a miraculous run. And then that Broncos team, people think, oh, it's Peyton Manning. No, that was all about the defense. The second. So Emmanuel Sanders at six catches in that game, the second leading receiver in a game that the Broncos won comfortably was Andre Caldwell, who had one catch for 22 yards. That's it. Owen Daniels had one catch for 18 yards. And that's basically the entire path. I mean, Manning was 13 to 23 for 140 yards in an interception. That defense was legit, right on par with this historically good Seattle defense.
- [07:55]
John Midkoff
Well, if they would have had like, again, because I was seeing that team live the peak. Manning of like, three years previously, the guy that won the MVP and threw 55 touchdowns. If that version would have been on that team, I mean, I think it would have gone down as, like, one of the greatest teams of all time, because the offense, when he first got there, was unstoppable. And then it kind of rotated and they kind of met in the middle. The pre. The two years before when they played Seattle's like, this team's incredible. They stunk it up in that Super Bowl. But then his arm didn't work. People forget he got bench for Osweiler that year. Remember, Elway had to, like, give him kind of a talk, you know, like, hey, man, this is. It was like, did he get benched? And then he went to Kubiak's office and Elway was sitting there, and then they asked him to take a pay cut. You know, it was. It's kind of getting weird. But it won the super bowl and, you know, time heals all kind of weirdness. And no one even remembers that. It's like, oh, Peyton Manning.
- [08:50]
Stuckey
Yeah, it's. It's pretty insane. That of just how cooked he was and how much it didn't matter because the defense was just that good. And yeah, we're looking at.
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John Midkoff
How many defensive players have ever won the MVP definitely in the last 25 years. Is. Is he the only one? What's his name on the Bucks?
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Stuckey
Dexter Jackson won it on the Bucks. In the weird thing about Dexter Jackson winning it. And Malcolm Smith for the Seahawks. Oh, yeah, Ray Lewis won it. But back. That was in 2000. And then there was a couple before then in the 70s and 80s, one.
- [09:35]
John Midkoff
Of the guys on the Cowboys won it, the db. And then Al Davis signed him. I forget his name. Not Darren Woodson, but I thought like, in 94 or 95 maybe. Am I Larry Brown?
- [09:46]
Stuckey
Larry, Is that it? Yeah. And then there was a defensive player who won MVP from a losing team, which is something that.
- [09:58]
John Midkoff
Is that possible in football like it is in hockey, you know, when they give the con smite like the, the goalie in a game seven. I think it's happened before. Pretty rare. But I feel in football it'd be impossible because Brady made the argument that one year when he threw 500 yards and they lost the Eagles.
- [10:14]
Stuckey
Yeah, it's, I mean it's pretty, it's amazing to think. I mean, the Colts beat the Cowboys 16, 13. It was known as the Blunt. This was in the early 70s. It was known as the Blunder Bowl. And the Colts won on a last second field goal. There was just turnovers. There was nothing but turnovers the entire game. It was the first game ever played on artificial turf. And yeah, I, A linebacker, Chuck Howley won the MVP. So there was 12 turnovers in the game, if you can believe that.
- [10:50]
John Midkoff
I feel like the super bowl mvp. I don't know. It's like when you bring up Cooper cup, maybe it's just the time it was 2021, you know, I, I, because for Edelman I feel it sticks, but he was part of 28. 3. It's like probably one of the most famous games in like definitely of our lifetime. I'm not even super bowl, non super bowl, whatever. Like no one ever. 28 threes are just a, just a moment that most people don't forget. I feel like Cooper cup, most people don't really remember. Like, if you're like, hey, I introduced you to Cooper cup, like, oh, that dude that played for the Rams. It was really good wide receiver for a long time. Do you think people would be like, oh, It's Super Bowl MVP.
- [11:26]
Stuckey
No, that's true. I mean, yeah, the Super Bowl MVP. You had that bond. You had Von Miller in 2016, Malcolm Smith in 2014. But I mean, going back to, other than that, if you go all the way back to, you know, the past 20 years, it's just quarterbacks and receivers. So I mean, there is a world where this is just a super defensive, low scoring game.
- [11:55]
John Midkoff
Well, the quarterbacks hurt. Well, I mean, obviously we've seen Darnold, but what about the other guy?
- [12:01]
Stuckey
Yeah, May. I mean, they stare. They say there could be a shoulder. I don't think it's going to be much, but yeah, we don't know as of right now. I'm not reading too much into it, but yeah, I mean, there's a chance that May isn't 100. There's a chance that, oh, Darnold's oblique flares up. I mean he's looked fine and he has two more weeks, but you never know. I'm not a doctor, but if this is like a super low scoring game and I mean look, the Seahawks all year have been scoring on defense, special teams, you know, which could bring like Shaheed into it. I mean if you go back to that rams Seahawks Week 16 game, which looking back is probably the most important game of the season, they that enabled them to win the division that come back get the one seed. It sent the Rams all around the country and then having to come to Seattle and Seattle got a buy and then, you know, a blowout win. Got to stay Seattle.
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John Midkoff
Seattle hasn't lost a game since the middle of November.
- [13:03]
Stuckey
Yeah, but that, I mean that game was so huge for them. But you could argue in that game, I mean there was too many points. You would, you would probably give it to, to Darnold. I mean really, the mv. If that game was the super bowl, there was a case that it, that it was. Who had 12 catches for 250 yards. But really the MVP of the game was Shahid for that punt return that flipped the game. So this is, if this is a really low scoring game and like Shahida's a big punt return. But I could see this being one where a defensive player maybe now picking who it is. Good luck. Put a, put a blindfold on a bunch of defenders. I mean, look like Malcolm Smith and Dexter Jackson have won.
- [13:46]
John Midkoff
I know.
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Stuckey
So. Yeah.
- [13:48]
John Midkoff
I mean it isn't Seattle's defense kind of built like that. Like, it's not like there's Von Miller or an Aaron Donald. They kind of a group.
- [13:55]
Stuckey
Yeah. I mean even Wares, he's the guy who's been making a ton of plays. So. But yeah, there's, it's just. There's a lot of players all over, but it's usually like who would get a random pick six. And that's so random. But I, you know, most likely it's going to be the quarterback. The one. Except the one exception over the past 20 years is when there is a receiver who just dominates the box score and there's not much other scoring. Right. So like a 21. Say the Seahawks win 21 13. JSN has eight catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns. And you know, the Seahawks had another rushing touchdown. You know, then you're probably going to give it to jsn. Like that's been the, the trend with some of these other receivers who have won it. And JSN certainly fits that profile, right? You, he's a target monster. He's had huge games where he's, you know, you have a bunch of other guys who have one or two catches. Shahid might catch a bomb, you know, you throw it to some of your tight ends and I mean shitty dominated.
- [14:58]
John Midkoff
In the, in the NFC championship game. He had catches that didn't even count. That were incredible.
- [15:02]
Stuckey
Yeah, his hands are ridiculous. Some of the one handed catches that he has are insane. I mean watching him versus Puka is just awesome.
- [15:10]
John Midkoff
Sick.
- [15:10]
Stuckey
But I am so curious to see. I mean like this, I could talk about this stuff all day, but schematically what's going to end up deciding a lot of this and a lot of the player props is how these defensive coordinators and coaches decide to approach this game and additionally the adjustments they make within the game. So if this was Belichick, and obviously this Patriots coaching staff has a lot of ties to Belichick. His MO was, you know, take away your strong arm, right, make you play left handed. So I know what Belichick would do. He would, he would probably have, you know, Christian Gonzalez man up the other receiver, not jsn, and then have.
- [16:05]
State Farm Advertiser
Your.
- [16:05]
Stuckey
Other corners on JSN with a safety over top bracketing him the entire game and you basically double double team. JSN gets a little more complicated if they're able to move into the slot more, which maybe they will, but that's what Belichick would do. He would say, and I think I would do that too. Jason is not beating me, right? So like my run D is really good and my rundy when healthy has been really good all year. No one's been able to run on the Patriots. They have good corners. But I'm saying JSN is not beating me. He's getting bracketed as much as humanly possible. And if you want to throw the cup, if you want to throw it at Shahid and Barner, fine. But I would trust my other corners on them, man them up, take away JSN. So if that's, if that occurs, then you know, JSN's going to be used more as a decoy and just not have as many opportunities. So number one, how do the Patriots approach that? Do they put their best corner on them? And Gonzalez, who, you know, I believe led the league in yards per reception or yards per snap this year, do they trust him? He's shut down some big name receivers before. Or do they say we're going to bracket him with a safety, another corner that's super interesting. And then the Seahawks are going to counter, right? They're probably going to move Jason around. Do they have them coming out of the back them or put them in the slot more so that that type of stuff. You know, with these staffs they are in two weeks to think about it. No one really knows. But that's usually what goes a long way in determining. I mean you go back to that Rams Patriots super bowl, that game plan that the Patriots came up with defensively with the five man fronts that just threw the Rams for a loop and they had no idea what to do. Things like that. Again, McDonald is a, a mad scientist. What, what he, what is he going to come up with? What is McDaniel's going to come up with is all super interesting and no one really knows the answers. But that's probably in these high leverage games. Also you, this is when you switch everything up like this, the ultimate high leverage game, right. You know that the other team knows your tendencies. They know where you're strong, where you're weak, what you like to do. So this is the time where you completely change it up. But you don't want to change up too much, right. And go away from. That's what McDonald's had happened in that Thursday night game. Like he tried to change up some things on a short week. And so you don't want to go away from who you are, but you do have to throw in some curveballs and sometimes teams will throw in some major curveballs that end up deciding the game. That's, that's the stuff that I love but obviously makes it makes it more difficult to bet because you're just, you're not going to be able to use as much of the data and the tendencies that you're. And you know, schematic tendencies that you can during a regular season game or even a wild card game. But that's what makes the super bowl so fun to me.
- [18:59]
John Midkoff
Why I like Seattle -4 and a half a lot. But the one thing that gives me pause is the coaching for New England is elite. And Sean Payton said it when he went for it on that fourth down, he said we got the look we want, but when we snapped it, they ran a completely different play. Who does that sound like? Bill, who like you just said the schematic, who was a major part of the actual implementation of the schemes in the 2000s. Mike freaking Frable.
- [19:26]
Lavar Arrington
Right.
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John Midkoff
So, you know, I think sometimes we look at him and he's just big massive alpha like a Jim Harbaugh. I think he's a lot smarter and he gets credit for and I you can chat GPT me on this and I could be wrong but I don't think any offensive coordinator and I don't mean head coach, I mean an offensive coordinator that's calling the plays has game plan more playoff games now super bowls than Josh McDaniels and the advantage now I think Mike is elite and he's Shanahan, Andy Reid but he's that version of defense and like if they bring you know the type game plan that he had against let's a couple of years ago when they played like the 49ers and he just made Purdy look like I mean completely over his head. A young player he can make young players. Drake may is more talented than Brock but he can just turn young, you know players into mush and get them seeing ghosts. I mean there's a prop that any quarterback to throw two interceptions I, I got almost two to one a pick six is plus 60 is almost seven to one. So it's like Mike McDonald if you tell me that he just has this incredible game plan because he has the pieces to deal with. Like Vrabel kind of needs the game I feel like to be ugly to give his team a chance. Like I, I think Patriot fans would be the first to acknowledge like of all their super bowl teams in the last like 20 years this is probably the least talented. Like like it's going to be in theory more talented in a couple years if Darnold's going to play like he just did the other night, like this team is really talented. I mean defense is completely loaded. JSN is an elite player. They just drafted a guard who you know got a chance to be like a eight time Pro Bowler. You know, I mean Kenneth Walker's been really good and again Darnold like has played pretty well for two years. Like there's no he's been like a top 10 quarterback. No one can even argue that. So to me if you like Seattle you almost just gotta I, I, I would ride Darnold to win the mvp some, some props like of their defense to cause interceptions. Maybe a pick six like that's the way I'm going. But I, I, I get back to of that Sean Payton quote of like we saw what we wanted and then it wasn't that. It's like well yeah, no shit Sean. This is the fucking NC championship game. You know, what would you do? And it's Almost like he sounded shocked because I think he doesn't view. I don't want to say it was a shot at Vrabel, but I don't think they took him. I don't think he would have said that if it was Bill, because he would have assumed that. But I don't think you assume that with Mike just like, oh, they got good players. Milton Williams back. They're just tough. He's, you know, like they were a couple years ago, remember, Like Bill's last year. Then they win four games. But they were pretty good statistically on defense, especially against the run.
- [22:02]
State Farm Advertiser
Yep.
- [22:03]
John Midkoff
So it's like I. I think Mike is like the double whammy.
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Stuckey
He's.
- [22:08]
John Midkoff
He's the leader toughness like the Tomlin Harbaugh, but he. The scheme stuff in his back pocket. I mean, what's this? The young coordinator that filled in for the. For Williams that got sick. Like, Mike has a heavy hand on that defensive scheme.
- [22:21]
Stuckey
Yep. By the way, you keep saying Mike, you gotta clarify, it's throwing you off.
- [22:25]
John Midkoff
Vrabel. Vrabel. Because I think.
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Stuckey
Let's use the two defense.
- [22:29]
John Midkoff
The coaches. McDonald is viewed as like the whiz kid.
- [22:33]
Stuckey
The.
- [22:33]
John Midkoff
The. I mean, I had a buddy on the Raven staff a couple of years ago. They called him like the defensive genius, like the wizard, where variables viewed more as the tough guy. But I think Vrabel is much closer to Mike and Mike's McDonald's personality.
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Stuckey
It's weird.
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John Midkoff
Like, when you see him talk, he doesn't come off like some crazy defensive guy. Like, you watch Fangio, you're like, that's a fucking curmudgeon defensive guy. You watch McDonald, you're like. Seems like pretty normal, you know, which he clearly must not be where Frable Rabel's kind of got the feel of Much more of a defensive guy.
- [23:03]
Stuckey
Yeah, I. I mean, I grew up in Philly, so I was used to, like, who was. Who's the original? Like, Buddy Ryan.
- [23:10]
John Midkoff
Oh, yeah. Like the Ditkas, the. Buddy Ryan's the fan. Just. They're just angry, you know, Bill Belichick. It's why Belichick and Pulling hate each other. They're the same guy.
- [23:21]
Stuckey
Yeah, they're just angry. I think Variable is super. Oh, this is my. By the way, my. My Ravel impression. All game just sits hand on his knees, looks like he's got to take a dump. Rolls his eyes. But he is super underrated in. In game stuff. There are like six or seven things that he's done as a head coach dating back to the Titans that most, almost all coaches wouldn't do that get his team little edges. For example, last week there was. The Broncos had the ball with 230 to go down three before. Before Stidham threw that interception that basically ended the game. He. The Broncos subbed off. I don't think the announcers caught this.
- [24:16]
John Midkoff
But the Broncos wait n Roma, they didn't catch something.
- [24:20]
Stuckey
Yeah, they. They subbed off a receiver which they shouldn't have done. And then you Vrael sent got in his defenses on the sidelines and instructed his subbed out his defensive lineman. If you go back and watch, he has a defensive lineman off from the and they have to wait to sub. And it bled like 24 seconds off the clock, which were huge at that time. Obviously it didn't end up mattering. But he knows the rulebook.
- [24:56]
John Midkoff
How many coaches do that, you think?
- [24:58]
Stuckey
What's that?
- [24:59]
John Midkoff
How many coaches do that. That move right there?
- [25:01]
Stuckey
Not many, but they're there. He knows the rule book. That was one of Belichick's biggest strengths. And he would spend they. He would find like little loopholes to use in like the playoffs. There was that game against the Ravens where Harbaugh got really mad with the motion. But he knew the. He knows the rule book. He got that from Belichick, I think, and like knows time management, clock management. So those little edges he's really good at as far as the game is concerned. Some interesting trends which are interesting, but you know, doesn't mean anything for one game. But dating back to Super Bowl 30, 30 years ago, there have been 16 Super Bowls with a spread of four and a half or more. Underdog is 12. Two and two against. The spread covered seven in a row. Interestingly, I. One of my biggest bets of all time is on the Falcons plus four and a half. But it closed three. This doesn't count. But I lost. That's. That's a 28. Three game. You mentioned that being one of the most famous.
- [26:01]
John Midkoff
What was the final score of that game?
- [26:03]
Stuckey
I lost the under and the Falcons plus four and a half. One of my big one. I'm still to this day, my biggest bets ever. One of the most painful bet and then became like the most famous game that I got to hear about forever. But the Patriots scored. They won by six.
- [26:16]
John Midkoff
They scored in overtime.
- [26:17]
Stuckey
They scored. They got. They won the coin toss. And I knew. I think it was 37, 31 or 34, 28. No, 34, 28. The Falcons didn't score after being up 28, 3. So underdogs have been really good in the super bowl above a field goal. I, you know, the, the thing is that I, I've struggled to remember a team like the Patriots where I still don't feel that confident in my rating for them because the, you know, we've had, I mean, number one, they've had the easiest regular season schedule of the past 25 years. And that's just based on, you know, looking at opposing team record strength of teams, you throw in all the backups they faced, it's even easier than that. So like during the regular season we didn't get a great, we didn't get many data points against number one, real quarterbacks and number two, real defenses. Like they didn't face the top 10 defense in my eyes the entire regular season. Now they go into the playoffs, they face some good defenses and May has struggled, but he hasn't had to do much because the offenses they faced have been compromised and they get the AC championship game against a backup quarterback. You know, you have the Texans with all their injuries and their offensive line injuries and Stroud just being a disaster. Herbert was a disaster and their offensive line wasn't at full strength. So still like the, the act. The number of like real data points against a real team are lacking now. You have to have to give them credit for like blowing out the teams during the regular season. But the thing that I worry about most with the Patriots is because I do kind of like the under here. I think this will be a lower scoring game. I do think both teams are going to come out and these and Super Bowls historically have started off really slow. And I used to be a total of 45 and a half, 46 of where it's at now. Used to be able to get like 10 under 10. You could. I would always play under 10 under 10 and a half in the first quarter hit for years. But now they books are keen to it. I think the first quarter total is like eight and a half. But if you go back historically, I think the first quarters have averaged like six or seven points over a long stretch. There's so many that just are three nothing zero zero seven zero. So I think, you know, you have Drake May who's had fumble issues. You've had Sam Donald who's had turnover issues in the past. Both teams, I think, trust their defenses. So I could see both coming out and just feeling the game out, not wanting to make a mistake. Right. And then it could potentially open up more, you know, and if one of these teams has to play from way behind. That's when I would worry more about turnovers. But I do think this could start slow and I think this will be like a field position battle. I, I think both defensive staffs will have a really good game plan and I do the big my biggest concern for the Patriots so like what I do trust for both of these teams. Run defenses are very good. I mentioned before the Patriots at full strength. Their run defense is legit. They had a little down tick late in the season when Milton Williams was hurt. Tonga their nose tackle. They had linebacker injuries. But when they've been at full strength they've been elite against the run. And throughout the playoffs, Milton Williams, remember.
- [29:34]
John Midkoff
They got like damn, they gave him $24 million a year. I mean he's been really good for him when he's been on the field.
- [29:39]
Stuckey
He has, yeah. He's been a difference maker. And the Seahawks deep run defense is historically good. So I, I don't think either team's gonna have much success running the ball. So then it's going to come down to Darnold. So I think there's going to be some known passing situations. Do the Patriots blitz? They've been blitzing it like 40, 45 really high over the past four games. Way higher than they have all regular season. Now you were playing in the playoffs, you know, backup quarterback. The Chargers ridiculous horrible offensive line. The Texans, you know, shroud struggles against the blitz. They had offensive line injuries. Do they do that here? Donald's been pretty good against the blitz. I don't know how do they handle jsn but this is going to come down to each quarterback because I don't think either running game is. Is going to consistently move the ball. And what my biggest concern for the Patriots is their offensive line and how it will hold up against the Seahawks defense and then may going up against whatever McDonald has cooked up. But whenever the the Patriots have faced a defensive line that can get pressure without blitz and they've struggled especially in the left side and is that when the turnovers come that's when seat the Seahawks can start smelling blood. And that that's my biggest concern concern for the Patriots is how does their offensive line hold up and then can, can may avoid mistakes but if the Patriots can can get out to a lead, you know and then use their different they they. They stunt a lot which has given the Seattle offensive line some issues this year. But if they can like time some blitzes, you know force I would just take JSN away Force Darnold into some throws. I think that's their path in a lower scoring game. One other thing I'll mention is special teams Big advantage for Seattle. New England special teams aren't bad. They're not elite. You know you have Patriots have an elite punt returner in Jones. Their punter's been out. He had a bad game last week, but Behringer's been decent schooler. They have some good cover guys, but the Seahawks special teams is probably the best in the league. We saw mention that Rams game. We know all year they've had special teams plays that have swung games so that could be the difference in if it's a competitive game, just the reliability and playmaking of Seattle special teams. So I'll stop rambling for now. Those are some of my my thoughts.
- [32:13]
John Midkoff
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- [34:20]
Lavar Arrington
Is Lavar Arrington from Up on Game. This message is brought to you by Apple Card It's a great time to apply for an Apple Card you'll love earning unlimited daily cash on every purchase. That includes 3% daily cash when you buy the latest iPhone and AirPods and Apple. Watch at Apple through this special referral offer. When you get a new Apple Card, you can earn bonus daily cash. To qualify, you must apply at Apple Co. Get daily cash Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City. Branch offer may not be available elsewhere. Terms and limitations apply.
- [34:52]
Verizon Advertiser
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- [36:11]
John Midkoff
T Mobile is a whole complicated thing? Nah, it's easy. You could do it almost anywhere in just 15 minutes, even poolside like Drew Ski.
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T-Mobile Advertiser
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I know you love deals.
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T-Mobile Advertiser
Plus switch right now and we'll even pay off your old phone up to 800 bucks. What do you think of all that?
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Public Investing Advertiser
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John Midkoff
Just switching. It's better over here.
- [36:47]
Stuckey
Check the Math.
- [36:48]
T-Mobile Legal/Disclaimer Voice
@T mobile.com BetterValue Savings versus Comparable Plans at, at and T&Verizon. Plus the cost of optional benefits. Plan features and taxes and fees vary with three plus lines of better value plan, three plus new lines and two eligible ports or three plus lines and five plus years on T Mobile postpaid plan. Require qualifying credit required. Checkout in 15 minutes or less per line. Get up to $800 per line via virtual prepaid card. Typically takes 15 days after rebate submission qualify Unlock device credit service ported 90 plus days with device ineligible carrier and timely redemption required. No cash access and card expires in six months. Card issued by Sunrise Banks NA Member fdic.
- [37:18]
John Midkoff
I I I the Hard Rock Bed has this pick. 6/650. Could be either quarterback. I mean both these quarterbacks have shown they can't turn it over. Drake May's got a bunch of turnovers this playoffs. Darnold led the league during the season. You got two defenses that are just going to be throwing curveballs left and right, especially early in the game.
- [37:35]
Stuckey
Yeah.
- [37:36]
John Midkoff
And then if someone's down, you just got to force it. I to me that, that, that one's, that one, that one's tasty. I'm definitely taking that. A couple years ago, famously on this podcast, you had Niners Chiefs overtime. What was it? 10 to 1 just for the bet.
- [37:53]
Stuckey
I really wanted to win was double overtime. 75 to 1, 100 to 1 and it was 1 second, 1 second away the play clock. I will never forget this. I was in a room about the play clock was set one second below the game clock and I'm convinced that if it was reversed, the Chiefs would have let it run down and gone to the second overtime and ran a play.
- [38:25]
John Midkoff
The I believe that in the context you bet a hundred dollars on 101 that pays 10k.
- [38:31]
Stuckey
Yeah. And yeah, it was one second away that was but yeah, overtime was nice but the double overtime would have been awesome. The I believe if it goes. This is never going to happen though. But in triple overtime, I think if it goes to triple it on then they kick off again like starts over. I don't know. I doubt we'll ever see that. So yeah pro I don't mind that prop. My only concern would be does May as maze turnovers, fumbles. Because that's what's. What's plagued him in the playoffs. Like are his turnovers the strip variety.
- [39:07]
John Midkoff
But yeah, because his own lines getting worked.
- [39:10]
Stuckey
Yeah, that's how the Patriots manage that is going to be really interesting. I do think one of the avenues to do so one my favorite props are Hunter Henry related. I played them like over catches, over receiving yards, over longest catch, over 17 and a half yards up the seat like the Seahawks, by design, they're one of the worst defense in the league against tight ends. And part of that's by design. You know, they kind of funnel things to the title. Now this could change. McDonald could say like, look, we're taking away Henry. Like we don't think their receivers can beat us. Maybe they play more man than zone. They, they switched up last week, played a little bit more man than usual, but they might. So he might maybe focus more. But the Seahawks defense, they, they allow you to throw short passes, throw to the tight ends because they want. They're. They're making you drive the field against that elite defense. It's going to stop the run, get in the third and long, get pressure, can cover the receivers. They, they want to take away the explosive play, force you to go all the way down the field on a, you know, 13, 14 play drive and score on that defense. And so tight ends have had huge days and Hunter Henry last year against this Seahawks defense, this McDonald defense. Now it wasn't his. McDonald didn't have all of his pieces yet, but he had what I think nine catches for 108 yards or something in the regular season. So I think that the, one of the ways that you, you know, number one, May is going to be under fire, under pressure. So that safety valve, I think there's going to be more design throws for Henry. The Seahawks also don't blitz a ton, so you don't need, you know, the protect in there, the protection in there as much. So I think Henry will have a pretty big day and we'll have a big, big long catch up the seam at one point. So I like some, some Henry props, but be curious to see what McDaniel does to get May going, avoid that pressure. What does the screen game look like, but I think the tight ends are gonna. Because I just, I don't know if the Patriots receivers can consistently get separation on a down by down basis against this Seattle secondary. This isn't Nakua and Adams out there.
- [41:32]
John Midkoff
Well, Booty was one because they're gonna have to take some shots. It's kind of how they've operated right offensively. And he's a, he's a good deep ball thrower. I know I don't hold the Denver game against him when it was. He threw one out route that was, that looked like, you know, Trey Lance or something. And then they showed the behind view and the wind, it looked like 90 miles an hour snow going everywhere. It's like you can't complete anything. I don't know if you saw that clip where he looks at Josh, he's like, this is impossible.
- [41:59]
Stuckey
Yeah.
- [42:01]
John Midkoff
He's not like, he's not even complaining. He's just saying like, what are we supposed to do? That game was a joke. But you know, I do think, you know, he's clearly, he force fed him the ball. It didn't work in that game with Booty against Denver. He had six touchdowns this year. I, I listen, some of Puka's production against Seattle feels like kind of shorter routes that he's taken after the catch. But I mean they, they were going after him with those two guys like you said. I mean, they're better than Booty, but it clearly feels like Drake likes them and the patriots like him. And +325. I looked on Hard Rock bet today. It's pretty good odds for a guy that, you know, they're going to target down the field. Whether it works or not is yet to be seen.
- [42:43]
Stuckey
Yeah, I mean that's, that's a matchup to watch. Seattle's, you know, secondary not letting up explosives against Drake May, who no question has one of the best deep balls in the NFL. Pinpoint accuracy, throws a beautiful deep ball and he's going to take, I mean, all year he will take his shots. Now he got a little gun shy and I think that the Patriots did that by design. Last week against, you know, there was the weather, but even early I think they were like, look, we're playing Jared Stidham. We're not losing this game. Like you saw some of the, the third downs where they rolled him out and he just like threw it away. Runs on third and long. That's not going to be the case here unless this is just like a, you know, 10, seven game in the third or fourth quarter. So he's going to take his shots here and Booty is the most likely target to hit those big passes. So yeah, that I, I can see him having one or two big plays that end up in the end zone because May is gonna have. They're not going to be able to consistently throw the ball. At least I don't think so. They consistently just move the chains by throwing short to intermediate passes against this defense with, with their receivers, they're going to have to pick up enough plays of the chunk variety to just avoid having to gruelingly go down the field against the Seattle defense. So yeah, Booty would definitely be the best candidate for that. So I, I don't mind that. Look, I also. One cross, one that I, I haven't. I've only seen it at one book out there. It'll be more widely available. I like this is way in the weeds, but I like Seattle over four and a half players to have a rush attempt.
- [44:42]
John Midkoff
So you're gonna have Kenneth Walker, Sam.
- [44:46]
Stuckey
Darnold, their backup will get a carry. Darnold will have at least one or he should, might not, but you know, he usually has a couple and you can knee, have a knee too. I think they're going to get one of their receivers. This is when you get creative. So like I, I imagine Shahid will probably get an end around or some type of carry and then you're gonna have A.J. barner will most likely be doing their, their sneaks. And this is. You don't not use him here in the super bowl when it's third and one, fourth and one. You know, they use him for the tush push here. So. And Barner's a sneaky touchdown bet because of that. Yeah, because if they're at the one Patriots run, he's been really good. I, I imagine Barner will have a chance and I'll have a chance in the passing game too. The Patriots, one of their weaknesses by far is their linebacker's ability to. Their ability to cover in space. So Barner in the red zone. You never know with the Seattle tight ends and Arroyo and who's who they're going to be throwing to. But Barner, I think, you know, all year he's been one of Darnold's favorite red zone targets and then he also could get in via sneak. So I like him as a, as a touchdown. Look, if you're looking for someone that's not the most obvious guy.
- [46:11]
John Midkoff
If I would have told you like three years ago that going into a Super bowl this Team was the number one seed. They just took out their two rivals and Sam Darnold is the heavy favorite to be the super bowl mvp. How many people would have believed me?
- [46:26]
Stuckey
Yeah, I would have laughed in your face. I mean, think about saying two, two, three years ago, Sam Darnold will be the MVP favorite in a Super bowl against the Patriots. Like think about where the Patriots were a couple years ago. Like this is a crazy, crazy Super Bowl. I know it's the Patriots, but like they were. And we get the Patriots again. But it's, it's basically been like this. The Chiefs and we have had a lot of the Chiefs and Eagles and 49ers. Like this is a pretty shocking super bowl result with Sam Darnold and, and how far he's come Now, a lot of that's on the defense, but he's certainly played well. And last week, I mean he went throw for throw with, with Darnold because the Rams offense clearly has is the kryptonite for Seattle's defense. And usually like it doesn't sometimes when you just have elite, elite receivers, you know, hall of Fame receivers and a Hall of Fame quarterback and a, you know, elite play caller, there's no defense for that. Right. Like if you're just making elite throws and guys, you can't, you, you can't cover Nakua and Adams and they're going to make contested catches. Can may get on a hot streak like that maybe. But he doesn't have the offensive line that the Rams do and he doesn't have the receivers and he's nowhere close to his experience as Stafford. So it's hard to see the Patriots doing what the Rams did last week. So the Patriots have to win this game. I would say 20 to 17. That has to be there.
- [48:15]
John Midkoff
Are you taking the Pats and the points?
- [48:18]
Stuckey
I don't know. I, I thought like three and a half was fair. I mean that, that was the look ahead line. That's not the most efficient line. Like if this got to six, I don't think it will. It was, it got to like five. I was waiting. I definitely would have bet the Pats. But you know, it got to. It was at three and a half. The Patriots won. They didn't have to do anything. So like I didn't take too much from that game last week in the blizzard and the Seahawks, it's not like I upgraded them a ton. I mean that was a coin flip game. Yeah, I mean they were out gained 480 to 390. They gave up 8.3 yards per play only average 6. Like the Rams arguably were better on a play by place. They muffed a punt, they got stopped on fourth down and they had sold a chance to win it. Their special teams really let them down. And so yeah, it's not like I upgraded the Seahawks a ton from that game. So I thought like three and a half would be fair. But again I just don't have that much confidence in where I that where I rate the Patriots because like the. The amount of real data points I have with this team is so small and I do have that concern that I know they're not gonna be able to run it or at least I really. I feel strongly that they won't be able to and then I don't know how their receivers are going to get separation consistently and then I don't know how May is not going to be pressured consistently on known passing downs. And you McDonald with two weeks to prepare. So it's. That all leads me to believe it's gonna be tough sledding for the Patriots offense now can their defense. I think their defense can keep them in this game. Right. Two weeks to prepare for this staff. I think they're going to just take away JSN or at least I think that's what they're going to do. Their rundy's good. I think that's going to make it tough. Their. Their stunts, their blitz packages can maybe give Darnold some issues. So I think their defense keeping them so my. My strongest play is probably the under but as a result if I think it's lower scoring then I would lean towards the dog a bit more. But also worried about special teams because that's. That could swing it in Seattle's favor too. But it's just crazy that the Patriots are here and it's like what complete team do they play all year? And there's. It's like if they.
- [50:30]
John Midkoff
If they were to pull off this upset and win, I think Bill's fans wouldn't even would be just. They might just quit football. It'd be tough that, that, that one. I. I think it would hurt them the most.
- [50:41]
Stuckey
You know it's gonna hurt Ravens fans at the Seahawks win. Donald's the one who got away.
- [50:46]
John Midkoff
Do you think that is a little. I. I was watching some of the mentor press conference today. He's not. I wouldn't say a big press conference guy. Not like he's dumb talking but there's just. I don't know it's just not his thing yeah, it's not. I, I'm not judging him on that moment. But bowls last year, it's like, God, if they could do that over again, they just would have fired him and got with Liam. Do you think looking back, they regret like they were just in the AFC championship game, but if, if they had to do over, would they have just fired John Harbaugh right then and hired Mike McDonald?
- [51:17]
Stuckey
Yeah, for sure. Yeah, it's, it's, it's unfortunate.
- [51:23]
John Midkoff
Mentor could be like the light version of him. He's clearly pretty good.
- [51:26]
Stuckey
Yeah, I think Minter was, was a good hire, but McDonald obviously would have been the ideal choice. And that's what we've seen recently. Like teams that are aggressive. I mean, look at these two teams, right? Like they were. It was. We, we brought in variable and we got rid of Mayo right away. It was a disaster. Seahawks move on from Geno Smith and Pete Carroll and go get McDonald. Like, a lot of people were shocked by it, thought it was the wrong move. But the whole NFL season was about coaching. The Jags rise with Liam Cohen and everywhere Liam Cohen's gone, team's gotten better. And then the Bucks, their, their offensive decline after Liam Cohen left the Bears and Ben Johnson's impact and what he did. And then you have the Lions drop off after Ben Johnson left. So, like the, the coaching matters, coordinators matter. And you can drastically change the direction of your franchise with the right hire or, you know, poison it for years to come with the wrong one. Especially if you have an ownership group that isn't going to be aggressive and move on quickly. So, yeah, I wish The Ravens had McDonald, but clearly the Seahawks benefited immensely and are going to be a problem for years to come with him at the helm.
- [53:03]
John Midkoff
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- [54:49]
Lavar Arrington
This is Lavar Harrington from Up on Game. This message is brought to you by Apple Card It's a great time to apply for an Apple Card. You'll love earning unlimited daily cash on every purchase. That includes 3% daily cash when you buy the latest iPhone and AirPods and Apple Watch at Apple through this special referral offer. When you get a new Apple Card, you can earn bonus daily cash. To qualify you must apply at Apple Co get daily cash Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch offer may not be available elsewhere. Terms and limitations apply.
- [55:21]
Verizon Advertiser
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- [56:10]
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- [56:40]
John Midkoff
Think switching to T mobile is a whole complicated thing? Nah, it's easy. You could do it almost anywhere in just 15 minutes, even poolside like Drew Ski.
- [56:48]
T-Mobile Advertiser
You can switch switch to T Mobile and unlock savings that are built to last. With T Mobile's Better value plan, you can save over $1,000 a year versus Verizon at, at and t. Save on streaming satellite and more benefits that they leave out.
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John Midkoff
Now I get all the VIP perks.
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T-Mobile Advertiser
Start saving from day one. And for a limited time, get T Mobile's Better Value plan.
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John Midkoff
I know you love deals.
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T-Mobile Advertiser
Plus switch right now and we'll even pay off your old phone up to 800 bucks. What do you think of all that?
- [57:13]
Public Investing Advertiser
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John Midkoff
Just switch it. It's better over here.
- [57:17]
Stuckey
Check them out.
- [57:17]
T-Mobile Legal/Disclaimer Voice
@T mobile.com Better value savings versus comparable plans at, at and T&Verizon. Plus the cost of optional benefits. Plan features and taxes and fees vary. With three plus lines a better value plan, three plus new lines and two eligible ports or three plus lines and five plus years on T Mobile. Postpaid plan required. Qualifying credit required. Check out in 15 minutes or less per line. Get up to 800 per line via virtual prepaid card. Typically takes 15 days. After rebate submission qualify unlocked device credit service ported 90 plus days with device in eligible carrier and timely redemption required. No cash access and card expires in six months. Card issued by Sunrise Banks. NA Member fdic.
- [57:40]
John Midkoff
Well, Stucky, bittersweet time. We just got one game left and you get to gamble on college basketball. I'll be gambling on golf and we'll just try to get through, but it's, you know, you turn on TV at night, it's just. I know you love college hoops.
- [57:53]
Stuckey
There's not.
- [57:55]
John Midkoff
It's not. No. I mean, I tried to watch a little like SC was playing. Was it Iowa or something? Last. It just didn't do much for me. I was like, I'm just gonna watch some TV and go to bed.
- [58:06]
Stuckey
I will say I, you know, I miss. There's nothing like football. I miss it in the off season, but I. I don't want football in the off season. So, like, I don't get into, like, I never got into any of the other leagues or like the US Football is like my. It's. It's meant to be from August until the Super Bowl. But yeah, TV and weeknights and week weekends just aren't the same without football.
- [58:32]
John Midkoff
So gambling on the NBA, I was watching the Lakers. Now like 40, I'm like that sport. When I first really got into gambling, like consistently probably mid 2010s used to be able to find certain teams like the OKC Thunder with Durant and Russell. I used to hammer their team overs and there were just some you could ride. And now basketball's all over the place with three point shots. Like I, I can't even imagine gambling on this where you got teams that tank. Some teams don't even try. The good ones take nights off.
- [59:03]
Stuckey
It's.
- [59:03]
John Midkoff
You talk about a volatile sport. I mean you got no clue what you're getting night tonight.
- [59:07]
Stuckey
I have no idea how people bet the NBA. That's not my God bless anyone that wins money doing it. I wouldn't even know where to start.
- [59:16]
John Midkoff
At least in college basketball, you know, both teams in theory are gonna try every night, right?
- [59:19]
Stuckey
Yeah, yeah. There's no like load management and no and tanking. But. But the sport's changing. I mean the sport like college football is definitely changing the top. So like what's happening in college football is happening in college basketball. There's. Because of nil. Because of the portal. The top of the sport is separating itself from the rest. Now there might be. There's probably gonna be more parity at the top. Right. You're gonna have like in clicking college football there's, you know, next year. If you ask me right now, like who could win the national title. I don't. And there's still so much to be determined in the portal and recruiting and a lot of other things. But I would probably list eight to 10 teams. Yeah. That I wouldn't be shocked. Five years ago, you know, it was like two to three teams that I would say. So there's more parity at the top. More diversity. I mean look, Indiana just won a championship. But after that the drop off is. Is massive because the money difference, because any player that's worth anything in these lower conferences is moving up. The coaches too are moving up. So like what's going to happen I think is. And it sucks because my first love is March Madness. When I was a little kid in the NCAA tournament, there's just going to be fewer upsets, fewer Cinderella stores. We saw that last year. I think that's probably going to be a trend and it's just going to be harder to get Cinderella stories because the gap is growing. I Mean, if you just look the top 10, the AP top 10 after week 13, which was this Monday, those 10 teams had 13 total losses. To put that into perspective, you know, two years ago, the same time frame, the top 10 had 34. The previous record was 21. So I mean, they only had third. So like there's just not as many upsets.
- [61:21]
John Midkoff
Well, Arizona hasn't lost. Right.
- [61:23]
Stuckey
Arizona's undefeated.
- [61:24]
John Midkoff
Nebraska just lost.
- [61:26]
Stuckey
Nebraska just lost to Michigan. Who's, you know, top five team.
- [61:29]
John Midkoff
How many losses? They have like two.
- [61:31]
Stuckey
They have one loss.
- [61:33]
John Midkoff
Yeah. Which is unheard of. Like if you finish the season with five or six losses. Right. Yeah.
- [61:40]
Stuckey
So, yeah, this. It's unprecedented how good the top of the sport is. So, yeah, there's just fewer upsets. I'm having to adjust because it's like a different sport. College football, college basketball, it's ever changing and it's a whole different world. But one mid major that could make a run. St. Louis, I took a flyer and then to make the Final Four. They're like a team with shooters all over. Very well coached.
- [62:04]
John Midkoff
Say that again. You kind of broke out on me.
- [62:06]
Stuckey
The team you just listed, St. Louis, the Billikens, they're. They have one loss. They lost one game to Stanford on like a crazy buzzer beater. But they have one of the best coaches in the country. They have like five guys who shoot 40 from three. They run beautiful offense. Like they're a team that could give anyone problems and make it. They can't like win it all, but they can make like a final Four. I took a flyer and then make the final Four. And then the other storyline with college basketball real quick is just the freshman this year. The freshmen are outstanding. My favorite to watch when he's healthy, he's dealt with a lot of injury issues. But Darren Peterson out of Kansas, I took a flyer in Kansas to make the Final Four. When he's healthy, he looks. He reminds me of like Kobe, if Kobe went to college. He is one of the smoothest players that I've seen on the offensive end in college, especially for a freshman. A long time. But the freshman boozer, Debanza, Peterson, they might be the top three in the draft. Then you might get, you know, Caleb Wilson out of North Carolina. The top five guys might be freshmen. Freshmen are dominating. He had this. The Kid Wagler from Illinois dropped 46 at Purdue last weekend. Flemings from Houston had 42 last weekend. I mean, there are so many good freshmen. That's another storyline to watch. But yeah, not the same without football. I appreciate you having me on all year. Can't wait to do it again next year, brother.
- [63:20]
John Midkoff
Well, enjoy being a dad.
- [63:23]
Stuckey
And yeah, you too.
- [63:24]
John Midkoff
Enjoy life. And we'll just keep on. We'll just keep grinding day by day because that's, you know, when you become a dad, that dad life is just one foot in front. I feel like Belichick just on to the next day. On to the next day.
- [63:33]
Stuckey
We're on to Cincinnati.
- [63:35]
John Midkoff
Yeah, okay, bro. I'll talk to you soon. Enjoy the Super Bowl.
- [63:38]
Stuckey
All right, brother. You too. Cheers. The Volume.
- [63:47]
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