Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: 3 & Out - The Big Game's Best Bets with Action Network's Stuckey
Date: February 4, 2026
Host: John Middlekauff (Three & Out)
Guest: Stuckey (The Action Network)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Super Bowl 60’s betting landscape, featuring a detailed, analytic conversation between John Middlekauff and Stuckey from The Action Network. The discussion covers team narratives, key matchups, betting trends, props, and the chess match between coaching staffs as Seattle and New England face off in Santa Clara. The episode blends high-level football analysis, personal anecdotes, and sharp gambling insight, catering to both football junkies and bettors aiming to extract an edge on the biggest game of the year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recent Super Bowl History, Memories, and the Evolving Narrative

• Personal Super Bowl Recollections:
  • John recalls attending the Broncos’ upset win over the Panthers at Levi’s and betting uncomfortably large sums on Denver.

    "I think I put a total of around $5,000 on the Broncos. And it was an un, very uncomfortable amount of money at the time, a decade ago." - John (05:08)

  • Discussion around the misconception that some Super Bowl winners (Broncos, Ravens) were all about defense.

    "People think, oh, it's Peyton Manning. No, that was all about the defense." – Stuckey (07:00)

• Super Bowl MVP Oddities:
  Noting how rare it is for defensive players to win MVP, the memorable exceptions (Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith, Ray Lewis), and how storylines can fade fast (e.g., Cooper Kupp’s MVP).

  “…in the past 20 years, it's just quarterbacks and receivers. So I mean, there is a world where this is just a super defensive, low scoring game.” – Stuckey (11:26)

2. Super Bowl 60 Matchup Analysis: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

• Quarterback injury uncertainties:
  • John and Stuckey discuss unclear status of both starters—Drake May (Patriots, possible shoulder issue) and Sam Darnold (Seahawks, oblique) but acknowledge both are expected to start.

    “Yeah, May. I mean, they stare. They say there could be a shoulder. I don't think it's going to be much... I mean he's looked fine and he has two more weeks, but you never know...” – Stuckey (12:00)

• Seattle’s Defensive Structure:
  Discuss how Seattle's defense lacks a singular superstar (like Von Miller or Donald) but instead features a strong collective, making it harder to pinpoint a defensive MVP bet.

  “It isn’t Seattle’s defense kind of built like that. Like, it's not like there's Von Miller or an Aaron Donald... They kind of a group.” – John (13:47)

• Potential Defensive Game Changers:
  Focus on the randomness of potential defensive scores – “who would get a random pick six…that’s so random.” – Stuckey (13:56). Precursors for a low-scoring, defensive MVP Super Bowl.

3. Schematics and Coaching Chess Match

• Defensive Adjustment Theories:
  In-depth exploration of how each coaching staff might approach neutralizing opposing offensive stars.

  “If this was Belichick... he'd probably have Christian Gonzalez man up the other receiver, not JSN, and then have other corners on JSN with a safety over top bracketing him the entire game and you basically double-team.” – Stuckey (15:50) Expect JSN (Seattle) to be bracketed; Seattle’s likely counter to keep JSN involved.

• New England’s Defensive Braintrust:
  Extended admiration of Mike Vrabel’s (defensive-minded coach, Patriots) smarts, clock management, and Belichick-style gamesmanship.

  "He just sits hand on his knees, looks like he's got to take a dump. Rolls his eyes. But he is super underrated in. In game stuff." – Stuckey (23:11) "He knows the rule book. That was one of Belichick's biggest strengths. And he would spend... He would find little loopholes to use in the playoffs." – Stuckey (25:01)

4. Trends, Numbers, and the Underdog Angle

• Super Bowl Spread Trends (25:01)

  • In Super Bowls with spreads of 4.5 or more, underdogs are 12–2–2 against the spread over last 30 years.
  • Recalling infamous betting losses (e.g., Falcons +4.5 in 28–3 Super Bowl collapse).

• Skepticism Around Patriots’ Resume:
  Stuckey doubts New England’s true quality because of their historically easy schedule and lack of high-level opposition:

  “...they've had the easiest regular season schedule of the past 25 years...We didn't get a great, we didn't get many data points against number one, real quarterbacks and number two, real defenses...Now they go into the playoffs, they face some good defenses and May has struggled, but he hasn't had to do much.” – Stuckey (26:46)

• Gameflow Expectations:

  • Early game likely conservative, both teams relying on defenses, feeling things out (favorites for first-quarter under plays).

    “Super Bowls historically have started off really slow...if you go back historically, I think the first quarters have averaged like six or seven points over a long stretch.” – Stuckey (27:55)

  • Emphasizes strong run defenses on both sides—neither team expected to find much running room.

5. Key Matchups, X-factors, and Prop Angles

• Defining Matchups:
  • Patriots’ offensive line vs. Seattle’s pass rush is likely the matchup that defines the advantage.

    “My biggest concern for the Patriots is their offensive line and how it will hold up against the Seahawks defense.” – Stuckey (29:58)

  • Blitz rates and tactics could change. Seattle’s history of limiting tight ends, but will they adjust for Henry?
• Special Teams Edge:
  • Clear advantage for Seattle—potentially an underrated way the game could be decided in a defensive standoff.

    “Big advantage for Seattle. New England special teams aren’t bad. They’re not elite...the Seahawks special teams is probably the best in the league.” – Stuckey (31:16)

• Favorite Prop Bets:
  • Any quarterback to throw two interceptions (almost +200)
  • Pick six bet (+650)

    “Both these quarterbacks have shown they can't turn it over. Drake May's got a bunch of turnovers this playoffs. Darnold led the league during the season.” – John (37:17)

  • Overtime/Double Overtime lotteries (John recalls losing double OT at “one second away” last year).
  • Hunter Henry props: Over receptions, yards, longest catch; Stuckey notes Seahawks funnel passes to tight ends by design (40:00)
• Seattle RB/Backfield Prop (44:42):
  • Stuckey likes over 4.5 Seattle players to register a rush attempt: Walker, Darnold, backup, Shahid (end around), Barner (tush-push). "This is when you get creative…Barner’s a sneaky touchdown bet…"

6. Narrative: The Unlikely Path of Sam Darnold and the Patriots

• Sam Darnold’s Revival:
  No one would’ve imagined even 2-3 years ago that “Sam Darnold would be the MVP favorite in a Super Bowl against the Patriots." (46:26)
• How Both Teams Were Built:
  Recent front office and coaching moves highlight the importance of being bold and cutting bait—Seattle’s move away from Geno and Pete Carroll credited, as is New England’s choice of Vrabel/McDonald.

  “The whole NFL season was about coaching. The Jags rise with Liam Cohen...Bears and Ben Johnson's impact...coordinators matter. You can drastically change the direction of your franchise with the right hire or, you know, poison it for years to come with the wrong one.” – Stuckey (51:26)

7. Closing Thoughts: Beyond Football for Now

• Football Withdrawal, Basketball Gambling, and College Hoops Trends:
  • Both joke about their difficulties betting NBA and discuss how NIL and the transfer portal are reshaping parity in college basketball (60:00).
  • Stuckey plugs St. Louis Billikens as a mid-major Final Four flyer, and hypes this year’s talented freshman class.

Notable Quotes by Segment

• On Patriots’ schedule and uncertainty

  “I still don't feel that confident in my rating for them because the, you know, we've had, I mean, number one, they've had the easiest regular season schedule of the past 25 years.” – Stuckey (26:46)

• On Special Teams Edge

  “The Seahawks special teams is probably the best in the league...that could be the difference in if it's a competitive game.” – Stuckey (31:16)

• On Defensive Scheme vs JSN

  “JSN is not beating me, right? ... he's getting bracketed as much as humanly possible. And if you want to throw to Cup, Shahid, or Barner, fine.” – Stuckey (15:50)

• On Patriots, Underdogs, and Trends

  “There have been 16 Super Bowls with a spread of four and a half or more. Underdogs are 12–2–2 against the spread, covered seven in a row.” – Stuckey (25:07)

• On the Storybook Darnold Turnaround

  “If I would have told you like three years ago that going into a Super Bowl this Team was the number one seed...and Sam Darnold is the heavy favorite to be the Super Bowl MVP. How many people would have believed me?” – John (46:11)
  “Think about saying two, three years ago, Sam Darnold will be the MVP favorite in a Super Bowl against the Patriots.” – Stuckey (46:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:52 | Opening, schedule issues, intro of Stuckey, Super Bowl context | | 05:08 | John’s personal Super Bowl betting memory | | 07:00 | Defensive vs. Offensive Super Bowl MVPs, misremembered narratives | | 15:02 | Early strategy: How will each team scheme for stars like JSN? | | 22:21 | Mike Vrabel’s game-management strengths, rulebook mastery | | 25:01 | Historic trends: Underdogs in Super Bowls w/ large spreads | | 26:46 | Patriots' easy path, skepticism about their true quality | | 27:55 | First-quarter and game under gaming, historical scoring patterns | | 29:58 | Patriots O-line vs. Seattle front: the matchup that decides things | | 31:16 | Special teams edge for Seattle | | 37:17 | Prop bets: Defensive TDs, QBs to throw multiple INTs | | 40:00 | Stuckey’s favorite prop: Hunter Henry over props | | 44:42 | “Over 4.5 Seattle players with a rush attempt” prop discussion | | 46:26 | Darnold as heavy MVP favorite, storybook narratives | | 51:26 | Coaching impact and franchise-building lessons | | 60:00 | Off-topic closure: college hoops, NCAA trends, Billikens sleeper |

Takeaways for Listeners

• This game is expected to be a defensive slugfest, with both teams' run defenses likely stifling early attempts and keeping scoring low.
• Coaching chess match is pivotal—look for in-game adjustments, creative play-calling, and disguised coverages, especially with elite defensive minds on both sidelines.
• The Patriots, despite being in the Super Bowl, remain a bit of a mystery due to a weak schedule and reliance on turnovers, while Seattle is seen as the more stable, well-rounded favorite.
• Special teams may decide a close, ugly game; +EV prop bets include defensive/special teams TDs, multiple INTs, and Hunter Henry overs.
• The story of Sam Darnold's late-career rise and the bold coaching/carousel moves by both franchises offer lessons on risk-taking and organizational decisiveness.
• Football fans are already dreading the end of the season, with the episode closing on sports betting and college basketball’s shifting landscape.

End of Summary