Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode Title: 3 & Out - The Draft, Teams' Approach Heading into the Draft, Players' Mindset on Draft Day
Release Date: April 24, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Introduction

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, host John Middlecoff delves deep into the intricacies of the 2025 NFL Draft. The discussion navigates through teams' strategic approaches, the economic implications of draft picks, and the psychological landscape players face on draft day. With insights from guest Greg Rosenthal and a rapid-fire mailbag session, the episode offers a comprehensive analysis tailored for both avid fans and casual listeners.

1. The Significance of the NFL Draft

[02:05] John Middlecoff opens the discussion by expressing his long-standing passion for the NFL Draft, likening it to a rejuvenating experience that rekindles his youthful excitement. He underscores the draft's role as a pivotal moment where hope and strategic decision-making intertwine to potentially transform a franchise's fortunes.

• Quote:
  "There's nothing more powerful than the power of hope and the belief that something is going to create a positive change."
  — John Middlecoff [04:30]

Middlecoff emphasizes that the draft is not merely about selecting talented players but also about balancing economic considerations, likening it to a stock market where supply and demand dictate the value of assets.

2. Economic Analysis of Draft Picks

Delving into the economic aspects, Middlecoff argues that the draft serves as an economic exercise where General Managers (GMs) must judiciously allocate valuable picks to maximize team performance without overspending on individual players.

• Key Points:

  • Balancing Talent and Cost: The best front offices excel at acquiring talented players at the right cost, ensuring long-term financial and team stability.
  • Position Value: Positions like running back often offer depth in later rounds, allowing teams to prioritize more scarce positions like offensive or defensive linemen in the early rounds.

• Quote:
  "It's the best general managers and the best front offices know how to balance the ability to pay the right price for the asset."
  — John Middlecoff [08:15]

Middlecoff criticizes teams that overvalue certain positions, leading to inefficient use of draft capital. He cites examples of teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Vegas Raiders potentially overpaying for highly ranked running backs, suggesting that allocating those picks to linemen could yield better long-term benefits.

3. Case Studies and Player Evaluations

Middlecoff presents various case studies to illustrate his points on draft strategies and player evaluations.

• Tom Brady and Undrafted Players:
  He reflects on undrafted players like Tom Brady, highlighting how late-round selections can defy expectations and become franchise cornerstones.

  • Quote:
    "Brock Purdy was the last pick in the draft and became the starting quarterback for the Niners as a rookie in the playoffs."
    — John Middlecoff [25:45]

• Rookies vs. Draft Position:
  The discussion includes how a player's draft position, while influential, does not inherently determine their success. Middlecoff references players like Daniel Jones and Trey Lance to demonstrate that performance and opportunity often outweigh initial draft status.

  • Quote:
    "Getting drafted high does stay with you and present more opportunities, but just because opportunities are presented, it doesn't mean a goddamn thing."
    — John Middlecoff [23:10]

4. Teams' Strategic Approaches to the Draft

The episode explores how different teams approach the draft based on their unique circumstances, such as coaching changes, team needs, and future planning.

• Flexibility in Drafting:
  Middlecoff praises teams like the Philadelphia Eagles for their adeptness at maneuvering picks and making strategic trades, emphasizing that flexibility and accumulated assets enhance a team's draft potential.

  • Quote:
    "The more assets you have, the more flexibility you are, you are given on a yearly basis."
    — John Middlecoff [18:50]

• Impact of Coaching and Management:
  He discusses the influence of coaches and GMs, such as Howie Roseman, in shaping a team's draft strategy, pointing out that experienced management can significantly affect draft outcomes.

  • Quote:
    "They are the teams that consistently win."
    — John Middlecoff [20:30]

5. Psychological Aspects: Players' Mindset on Draft Day

A key segment focuses on the emotional and psychological challenges players face on draft day, particularly those drafted later than expected.

• Resilience and Adaptability:
  Middlecoff emphasizes that players must maintain resilience regardless of their draft position, citing examples like Lamar Jackson and Brian Branch, who overcame draft disappointments to excel in the NFL.

  • Quote:
    "You are either getting better or worse. No one stays the same."
    — John Middlecoff [19:40]

• Long-Term Performance vs. Initial Expectations:
  The discussion highlights how initial perceptions can be misleading, with many late-round draftees outperforming their draft position over time.

  • Quote:
    "We see it all the time. That factors in first round picks as well."
    — John Middlecoff [21:05]

6. Mailbag Segment: Listener Questions and Expert Opinions

In the rapid-fire mailbag session, Middlecoff and Rosenthal address listener-submitted questions, providing expert opinions on various draft-related topics.

• Reed Sanders' Draft Slide:
  A listener inquires about Reed Sanders' possible slide in the draft, with Middlecoff attributing it to shifting team landscapes rather than negative press.

  • Quote:
    "It's more about the landscape of teams not drafting them high, not because of anything written in an article."
    — John Middlecoff [35:33]

• Player Agency in Team Selection:
  Another question explores whether players should have the option to skip teams during the draft process, to which the hosts respond skeptically about the feasibility within the NFL’s framework.

  • Quote:
    "They are never doing that. Big, big charger fan and big middle cop fan."
    — Greg Rosenthal [45:10]

• Impact of Agents like Drew Rosenhaus:
  The role of influential agents in draft negotiations is debated, with Middlecoff expressing doubt about their impact on high-profile picks but acknowledging their potential influence on lower-tier selections.

  • Quote:
    "I don't think Drew has much juice now. Can he just pitch the shit out of you with like a 5th round guy?"
    — John Middlecoff [50:35]

7. Challenges in Drafting and Team Building

The conversation addresses the multifaceted challenges teams face in drafting, including evaluating player compatibility, managing team chemistry, and forecasting future performance.

• Evaluating Intangibles:
  Middlecoff highlights the difficulty in assessing a player's love for the game and mental fortitude, which are crucial for long-term success but hard to quantify.

  • Quote:
    "Do they have the intangibles, the toughness, the mental fortitude, the love of this profession?"
    — John Middlecoff [42:20]

• Adapting to Evolving Offenses:
  The shift towards more diverse and non-traditional offensive schemes in college football poses challenges in evaluating quarterbacks, as Middlecoff discusses the necessity of understanding a player’s adaptability to pro-style offenses.

  • Quote:
    "Just because you get to a throw, maybe in a shotgun situation, doesn't mean you don't have the arm strength or the accuracy to make that throw."
    — Greg Rosenthal [47:00]

8. Outlook for the 2025 NFL Draft

In closing, Middlecoff shares his excitement and anticipation for the unfolding draft events, predicting key trends and potential surprises.

• Quarterback Selection Dynamics:
  He speculates on the likelihood of major quarterbacks like Shador Sanders being selected and the strategic moves teams like the Giants and Browns might employ to secure their desired picks.

  • Quote:
    "Quarterbacks are always going to drive the draft. This one has a little bit less sizzle."
    — John Middlecoff [31:55]

• Potential Trades and Team Moves:
  Middlecoff anticipates significant trades and team adjustments, particularly concerning famous veteran players and how these moves could reshape team rosters.

  • Quote:
    "Howie and Drew's relationship probably goes back 15, 20 years. I would imagine over the last three or four, no player..."
    — John Middlecoff [49:20]

Conclusion

John Middlecoff wraps up the episode by reiterating his dedication to providing insightful analysis throughout the draft weekend. He encourages listeners to subscribe to various platforms to stay updated with continuous content and emphasizes the draft's role in shaping the future of NFL franchises.

• Final Quote:
  "Buckle up. Obviously, it's going to be a huge story who falls, who doesn't. But I'm fascinated by what happens going forward, not what happened based on the past."
  — John Middlecoff [27:05]

Listeners are left with a nuanced understanding of the draft's complexities, the strategic maneuvers of teams, and the resilience required from players to succeed in the highly competitive NFL landscape.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

1. "There's nothing more powerful than the power of hope and the belief that something is going to create a positive change."
   — John Middlecoff [04:30]

2. "It's the best general managers and the best front offices know how to balance the ability to pay the right price for the asset."
   — John Middlecoff [08:15]

3. "You are either getting better or worse. No one stays the same."
   — John Middlecoff [19:40]

4. "Getting drafted high does stay with you and present more opportunities, but just because opportunities are presented, it doesn't mean a goddamn thing."
   — John Middlecoff [23:10]

5. "Buckle up. Obviously, it's going to be a huge story who falls, who doesn't. But I'm fascinated by what happens going forward, not what happened based on the past."
   — John Middlecoff [27:05]

6. "Which your point being that their offense parallels more what NFL teams do back in the day in college under center."
   — John Middlecoff [47:25]

7. "I don't think Drew has much juice now. Can he just pitch the shit out of you with like a 5th round guy?"
   — John Middlecoff [50:35]

This episode serves as an essential guide for understanding the multifaceted nature of the NFL Draft, offering listeners a blend of strategic analysis, economic insights, and personal anecdotes that illuminate the complexities of team building in professional football.