The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Three & Out – Tua Benched, J.J. in Minnesota, and the Value of Elite QB Play

Date: December 18, 2025
Host: John Middlekoff
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

In this episode of Three & Out, John Middlekoff delivers a deep-dive, opinionated breakdown of some of the NFL’s hottest quarterback headlines: the benching of Tua Tagovailoa by the Miami Dolphins, the rise of J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota, and a broader discussion on the absolute importance – and the evolving role – of elite quarterback play for NFL franchises. Middlekoff also answers several detailed mailbag questions ranging from coaching prospects to roster construction strategy, with his signature direct, witty, and often blunt takes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tua Tagovailoa Benched: The End of the Miami Era

• Benchings Have Big Picture Ramifications
  Middlekoff begins by outlining the gravity that comes with benching a well-paid quarterback — not just performance, but salary cap strategy and franchise direction.

  "Whenever a guy who makes a ton of money is benched, usually there are big picture ramifications. ...When you bench Tua Tagovailoa, his career for the Miami Dolphins is over. He will never ever play another snap for the Miami Dolphins." (04:14)

• Coaching Motives & Organizational Signals
  He distinguishes two possible rationales for the move:

  • Desperation to save jobs
  • Organizational confidence in the coach’s security, giving him power to make bold decisions
    He speculates whether the Dolphins are trying to "catch lightning in a bottle" with Quinn Ewers or if this is just the end of Tua’s Dolphins tenure regardless.

• Quarterback Contracts Compared to Marriage
  Middlekoff frames QB contracts as irrevocable commitments, drawing parallels to high-stakes marriages:

  "I view quarterback contracts a lot like marriage. ...If you get it wrong, there are massive financial ramifications that are not good. But no one's telling you you have to get on a knee. You don't need to rush it." (07:02)

• Dolphins’ QB History and the Herbert 'Sliding Doors' Moment
  A detailed reflection on Miami’s fateful draft of Tua over Justin Herbert, and how Herbert’s subsequent success transformed the Chargers’ organization:

  "It’s just an all-time NFL moment that the Miami Dolphins drafted him fifth overall... But they pass on Justin Herbert and that changed the Chargers franchise forever. ...Jim Harbaugh is not their coach if they don’t have Justin Herbert." (13:13)

2. The Fallout: Tua’s Decline and Concussions

• On-field Regression Post-Concussion
  Middlekoff is unsparing on Tua’s post-injury performance, linking it directly to his history of head injuries:

  "Once his marbles...got shook after all the concussions, like, I don’t see how anyone could debate. The player we watch now is a shell of the version that we watched a couple years ago." (10:28)

  He’s critical of box score analysis, instead citing the eye test from recent games, "His quarterback play was atrocious and they had gone on this winning streak...they were just running the ball and playing defense. They were avoiding having Tua do anything, and it was working." (11:39)

• Financial Fallout
  The next year’s dead cap implications for cutting Tua are massive, nearly $100M, but the host feels the team is likely to make a drastic move regardless.

3. Mailbag Segment Highlights

• Will J.J. McCarthy Start in Minnesota?
  Middlekoff opines that recent progress, even against weak opponents, is critical:

  "If he has one good game in one of those two outings [against the Lions or Packers], I think you feel much better about this offseason. And he'll be the starting quarterback in 2026." (19:18)

• Is Elite QB Play Still Essential in Today’s NFL?
  A nuanced argument that you "have to have good quarterback play to win":

  "There’s a reason Mahomes has been there five of the last six years...You just do [need an elite QB]." (29:17)
  However, Middlekoff does acknowledge the examples of teams succeeding with defense and strong overall rosters, especially referencing the 49ers’ and Bills’ different approaches.

• Roster Building: Find Your Josh Allen or Build Around a Solid QB?
  He notes the rarity of true elite game-changing QBs:

  “There just aren’t ever going to be many Josh Allens. ...The number one goal always is to pick the best players.” (34:37)

• Kyle Shanahan and Coach of the Year Debates On why Shanahan is not getting more buzz:

  "People thought the 49ers were going to be good...so people assumed they were going to be good, and now he is good. So people thought that even though the route he took to get good is way different." (43:35)

• Experience Matters for Quarterbacks
  On why the AFC’s elite QBs are especially seasoned:

  “These guys all played a lot of college football. It’s easy to say Richardson has a ton of physical gifts, but if you had to win one game, are you taking him or Tyler Shuck? ...You cannot circumvent experience.” (41:33)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Quarterback Decisions:

  “If you have any reservations, do not buy the ring and get down on a knee.” — John Middlekoff (07:57)

• On Tua Post-Injury:

  “The player we watch now is a shell of the version that we watched a couple years ago.” — John Middlekoff (10:28)

• On the Dolphins passing on Herbert:

  “It’s just an all-time NFL moment that the Miami Dolphins drafted him fifth overall...But they pass on Justin Herbert and that changed the Chargers franchise forever.” — John Middlekoff (13:13)

• On the Importance of QB Play:

  “You have to have good quarterback play to win. You just do.” — John Middlekoff (29:17)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tua Benching and Dolphins' Decision Fallout: 03:06–15:49
• Sliding Doors: Dolphins pass on Herbert: 13:13–15:49
• Mailbag – J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings: 19:08–22:00
• Mailbag – Importance of Elite QB Play for Playoff Success: 27:18–30:02
• Mailbag – Roster Building Philosophy (Josh Allen vs. Team Build): 33:00–36:00
• Mailbag – Shanahan and Coach of the Year: 41:33–44:50
• Mailbag – QB Experience and AFC Trends: 41:33–43:09

Language & Tone

Middlekoff is conversational, blunt, and quick with analogies – often injecting humor and real-world references (comparing QB contracts to marriage, NFL decision-makers to risk-averse spouses). His takes are strong, occasionally caustic, and always opinionated but fair. He is as likely to call out GMs for panicking on quarterbacks as he is to empathize with players facing career-defining injuries.

Conclusion

This episode is a quintessential example of why Three & Out has traction: a shrewd breakdown of headline news, insightful—if strong—perspective on quarterback value, and frank mailbag answers that show a blend of knowledge and authentic fandom. Whether you care about the fate of Tua, the importance of being deliberate with franchise quarterbacks, or what it takes to build a sustainable roster, Middlekoff’s mix of storytelling, analysis, and locker-room candor delivers value to informed and casual NFL fans alike.