← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Colin Cowherd Podcast - Arch Manning STRUGGLES vs. Ohio State, Miami & ND Are Playoff Teams, Week 1 NFL Lines, Micah Parsons Trade, DeBoer Too “Chill” For SEC?
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- [00:00]
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- [01:05]
Matt
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- [01:35]
John
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- [02:58]
Matt
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- [05:32]
John
Yeah. I've seen a lot of people that cover college football. Everyone needs to pump the brakes, not overreact. No one was expecting him to dissect a guy that spent 20 years with Bill Belichick. So, yeah, if he's going to throw some interceptions, no one cares. That's always been your thing. Like you can throw some picks. Brett Favre of Patrick Mahomes. Good for you. Throw me 40 touchdowns. I think you kind of know when you see it when it comes to certain athletes. Right. We were at Live Koepka. You just watched him hit balls on the range. Like, damn, that sounds pretty good, right? I remember going to batting practice when Bryce Harper was young playing the Giants. You just went, holy shit. Right? If you see Caleb Williams spin the ball, whether he's going to turn out to be a good player or not, time will tell. But from throwing the football, you're like, damn, that thing comes out of it. And you knew it right away at Oklahoma when he came in for Spencer Rattler as a true freshman. That, to me is the most concerning part about Arch. And listen, I, I didn't say it, so it sounds like I'm just saying it now, but I remember watching high school tape just, you know, the highlights at the school he played at New Orleans, and I didn't see a guy that, like, the best arm I've ever seen, but everyone kept calling him a generational talent. Now, Peyton Manning did not have a great arm. He threw what I think he considered a wobbly spiral. Yeah, right. But what it, what was Peyton the best fundamentals of all time and incredibly accurate. Well, Arch doesn't look like the most accurate guy and obviously his ball is very wobbly. Let's go to Eli. Eli was a little hit or miss with his accuracy, but had a howitzer, had a big arm. And I'm watching Arch and I go, obviously he's tall, seems like a great kid. People like him and he's well and he's athletic.
- [07:12]
Matt
Yeah.
- [07:13]
John
But you watch him spin that ball. I would say NFL people would say, based on first glance against a real team, extremely average coming out of his hands. And that, to me would be the concerning part. Quinn, you are. Say what you want. Like, when the ball came out of his hands, he could kind of let it rip. And now the conversation, because fine. Bomb said, or someone had said recently how, oh, it Was maybe Jordan Rogers or I forget. But like, how couldn't this guy start over? Quinn, yours. And you know, sometimes it's complicated, but maybe simply wasn't as good. Maybe Cirque went. He couldn't say this out loud, but maybe he goes, well, Quinn Ewers was a better player last year.
- [07:45]
Matt
Well, when he rolled out on his first throw and I mean, he skipped it maybe 7 to 8 yards before the receiver rolling out. And I thought, that's not nerves. Like he, that wasn't, that wasn't close. And then there were a couple easy ones. And you're like, bro, this, this ain't. I mean, he can move, but I, I tend. I mean, I, again, I'm not there live. I. When I watch that game. And you know, I said this on my reaction. Matt, Patricia is going to make some guys look really bad. The. In the NFL, you know this. Defensive coordinators have to be good against the pass because you're facing the world's best quarterbacks. And in college, you have to be good against the run. Cause you're not. You may face one really elite quarterback even in the SEC all season, maybe two. So Patricia's going to give college quarterbacks problems. Sark said after the game, he goes, that was elite coverage. That. I mean, Sark admitted it. That was elite stuff. So we knew it wouldn't be pretty. But I gotta tell you, I, when I watched it, I was just one thing. I mean, I think he'll be fine athletically. I think the O line, you'll get better protection. He'll succeed at some level. But, you know, what do they say the first eight minutes for a woman, she makes a decision. The first eight throws. You're a former scout, it's kind of like, whoa, this isn't even close to what it was billed.
- [09:16]
John
It was jarring because again, no one's judging him. Anyone worth their salt? Again, we're not like acting. This is the end all be all. And I don't care about the numbers. I don't even care about the interception he threw. I'm just judging him on like, what do his physical traits look like? And to me, from a throwing standpoint, they. They look pretty average. Because like you said, Matt, Patricia spent two decades with Bill, who is the greatest defensive mastermind of all time. And the guy's a rocket scientist. Like, he's smart and they. And they have the best player. So it was going to be challenging for him. He could have played well, let's say he had lived up to the hype. And they easily could have lost as well. But when you watch him throw, see, I gave him the benefit of the doubt on that first throw. I was like, you know, walking out the shoe. There's 80,000 people. He's not an idiot. He knows what's been built up. Nerves. He's really amped up. Urban had said on the pre game he wouldn't have either quarterback because both guys are making their first big start. One guy's literally making throw over the middle for like the first quarter because like balls fly when you're nerves. Let, let him get into the game a little bit. So I was like, I'm going to give him the benefit of that. But as the game went on, it's like, okay, he's not that nervous anym. Yeah, his ball just doesn't come out of his hand. He just, he throws it much more like Peyton, who. If Peyton tried to play like Mahomes or Josh Allen, it would have looked horrible because he didn't have that physical trait. But it was great fundamentals. Arch is like moving his arm all over the place. Yes, it was, it was weird. I. Yeah, it was. It was pretty glaring because the game ends. You're like, did I really just witness what I just witnessed?
- [10:46]
Matt
Yeah. And I think, I think Ryan Day and I had said this. I think Ryan Day, I noticed it from tv. I think Ryan Day knew very quickly by the second series, guys, just, we're going to, this is going to be our game. Just don't lose it. I think Ryan Day went in with a game plan thinking, hey, I may have to get aggressive here. And I think after the second series, he was seeing what we were all seeing and he's 20, 30ft from it, which is, hey, guys, let's play the field position game. We'll take a couple of shots downfield, but we're going to, we're going to play the field position game. We're going to get turnovers here because I thought, you know, and remember what, remember what Belichick made Sam Darnold look like the first six times they played. So this may be as bad as Arch plays and there may be no doubt about that. I mean, if they score on the tush push, you know, maybe he gains confidence, they get different field position, whatever. But again, you have to look at these throws. I mean, I've seen Brady throw four picks. I've seen Mahomes throw bad picks. That's not it. It was mechanics.
- [11:53]
John
That's not even what we're talking about. Right.
- [11:55]
Matt
It was.
- [11:55]
John
We're talking about skipping. Awful. I see. To me, Ryan Day said after the game, he's like, you know, one thing I kind of regret is I was really impressed with my quarterback coming off the field. What he was telling me, he's like, you never truly know with a young quarterback. Do they see it like we're seeing it? He's like, he did. And I kind of kept the training wheels on our offense.
- [12:15]
Matt
Yes.
- [12:16]
John
He's like, I probably could have given him more. To me, you're saying Ryan Day, with arch, like, he sees that. Right. I think Sark's getting crushed. Because if people are like, why is he. I think Sark, that first play, when he skipped that ball, I think he went cut. I gotta settle this down. Because he kept calling runs. The only reason they. They had 30 pass attempts, because the last, what, couple drives, they had no choice. He would have gladly kept that game, like, 20 pass attempts. To me, he was calling plays based off his quarterback.
- [12:45]
Matt
Yes. And I think Ryan Day now is saying, my quarterback was telling me, I see things. And Ryan's like, hey, there's no reason to take risks. I mean, when you can be on the field and see the body language you get, there are certain interpretations that you can make as a coach. Yeah. I mean, Sark has not been good in big games. I think we all know they think he's like, you know, one in six.
- [13:05]
John
What was he supposed to do? I've been critical of him in other games. To me, that is on the quarterback, not Sark.
- [13:10]
Matt
Yeah.
- [13:10]
John
When. When the guy's throwing balls like this with the guy right in front of him, like, Sark is not telling him to do that. I do not put that loss at. Sark's team came ready to win. His quarterback was completely over his head. I don't even think that's debatable. Like Texas, those two teams, I mean, you could argue. I watched, like, you, I'm sure every single big game this weekend, those were the two most talented teams. Remove the quarterback. If I. If I put Nussmeier in one of those two teams, you know, or, you know, Caleb Williams or Jaden Daniels, they'd be unstoppable. The talent and the physicality they have. But the difference in that game was the one quarterback just made a couple more plays and the other quarterback was. Just. Felt like he was swimming the entire game. It's like, yeah, I know he hit the one shot down the sideline, but for the most part, you had no. As the game went on, you had less and less Trust in him making a throw.
- [13:56]
Matt
All right, time to look at this weekend's tastiest matchup in this week's Sunday night Food Ball brought to you by Uber Eats, a company I use all the time. So, Notre Dame, Miami. Listen, you, You, Miami look the part. CJ Daniels with a catch. That interception off a cleat. I think they're two really good football teams. I, I was a little disappointed in Notre Dame. Jeremiah Love is an all American running back. He's a really good player. He'll be a high round pick. He only got 10 touches. I didn't love that. Although I will say Miami's offensive line gave Carson Beck a lot of time to throw. I mean, Notre Dame got no pass rush and so Carson Beck, who I don't really love as a prospect, but he's certainly good enough, you know, to get you to a playoff and win playoff games. In college football, he's a way above average college quarterback. My interpretation of that game is inexperienced quarterback C.J. carr on the road against a really good playoff level team. That is a big ask. I didn't think Notre Dame, I would have gotten another six touches or so to love the running back. I would have tried, but, you know, he only averaged 3 1/2 yards of carry, so there wasn't a lot there. I don't know. When I watched that game, my feeling pretty strongly was, especially in the second half, John. I felt like we're watching two playoff teams now. Miami schedule is tricky. They got Florida, they got Florida State. I think they have Southern Florida. I mean, they have all those, you know, schools in the state and you know, those schools, there's a lot of animosity and there's a lot of high school players that played against each other that, that could be. They, I think they play South Carolina at some point. So Miami schedules got some, some landmines here. But I felt like I was watching in the second half two really good top ten teams. Did you?
- [15:50]
John
Yeah, for sure. I mean, Miami, if their defense, it was kind of like a couple years ago, you know, with Jaden Daniels at lsu, it's like if they just played defense, they would. Last year, their offense was unstoppable. You know, Mario, who's an offensive line guy in his offensive coordinator, they're clearly pretty good on that side of the ball.
- [16:05]
Matt
Oh, yes.
- [16:05]
John
Mario's. Mario's an elite recruiter. I mean, he was like that in Oregon. Dan Lanning showed up. It was, the cupboard was not empty. I say all the time, you know, Ryan Day took Over a rocket ship. Mario left it pretty good for Dan Landing.
- [16:17]
Matt
He did.
- [16:17]
John
Mario's an elite recruiter. People have nitpicked him as an in game coach and it kind of felt last night it's like, God, are they imploding? A little bit. And they didn't. But defensively they were dramatically better. To me, Carson Beck, listen, he's clearly not a number one overall pick, but he's a real player. That's, that's an NFL quarterback, probably a backup, but like you watched him last night with much better players. Remember two years ago with Brock Bowers and Lad McConkey, he was a real player. Last night with CJ Daniels, with that 17 year old freshman, Tony, the little small guy with that offensive line, it was like, geez Louise. The thing with Notre Dame, I would say this, they are built basically carbon copy to the Shaw Harbaugh, Stanford teams. Great defense, offensive, the offense is going to be built around the running backs and the tight end. They are never going to have Jamar Chase or CD Lamb outside. That's not the way.
- [17:08]
Matt
There's a way they have to win. And last night when they could not get a pass rush just with four, you just kind of feel like the whole game it's like, no, no, Notre Dame has to win that. Remember against Indiana, if Notre Dame wins the push up front, then all that Harbaugh style ask sort of run the ball, control the clock. But they couldn't get, they couldn't get pressure on Beck.
- [17:31]
John
And Freeman said that going into halftime he's like, we got to find a way to hit this guy. And they were getting close and he would just let the ball go and make plays. The other thing was, and maybe it's 90 plus percent humidity. So they were just gasped. Their offensive line at the end of the game and their right tackle looked like me out there. It's like part of the way Stanford dominated and even Notre Dame last year with some injuries is the offensive line has to be elite. And luckily you can find high, academic, high level offensive linemen at that school. They did forever with Brian Kelly, Stanford did forever with Harbaughn Shaw. But that right tackle, the teams they're going to play, I mean A and M will have pass rushers. They will lose those games if they can't protect in the biggest moments. Now going into a game from think of the disadvantage that some of these teams are. We talk a lot about Miami with McDaniel, whoever's coaching the Dolphins, when they go into cold weather like it's 80 degrees they're going to play in negative two. Like of course they're going to lose. How do you, how do you prepare? You could say it's the flip side when you're coming from Indiana and you go to 90% humidity in South Florida that there's nothing you could go a couple days early. But how do you prepare for that during training camp? And it just, they showed a little signs of life but they were just, they felt off most of the game part of it. Miami's really talented.
- [18:41]
Matt
Yes.
- [18:42]
John
You know Miami's got some guys. I would say Miami, I would say the same thing about Florida State. When these teams do it right, they play ACC schedules with SEC players. Like they got a lot of guys at Florida State, Clemson and Miami. When things are going well that was started all the SEC schools but they, they get a lot more Boston colleges and NC States mixed in there in their schedule. So like you, you tell you could convince Me Miami's a 10 win team, no problem. I mean they won nine last year and they could play defense. So I was really impressed. I was impressed with both teams. I Notre Dame could have folded and they didn't.
- [19:15]
Matt
No. That's right. They were in trouble. And then they came roaring back. That was this week's Sunday Night Football brought to you by Uber Eats. When football makes you hungry, get game day deals on Uber Eats. I do every week. The official on demand delivery partner of the NFL. Order now. I just did this Labor Day.
- [19:33]
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- [20:32]
Matt
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- [21:19]
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- [22:18]
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- [23:26]
Matt
Listen, there are sometimes Things happen in sports and most of the time you and I can talk our way through it. We make a couple calls, we have contacts, we can figure it out. Kalyn DeBoer wasn't just a good coach. He was almost unbeatable with Washington's B to B plus talent. Alabama's got much bigger size, much greater speed. They couldn't run the ball at all. DeBoer has now lost, I believe, to four unranked teams. I didn't know what to make a Ty Simpson.
- [23:59]
John
It's.
- [23:59]
Matt
But I don't have an answer because, you know, I follow Husky football. Like I know their personnel really well. And Penix, maybe Penix is better than I thought. And they also had really good wide receivers. Roma, Dunze, Polk, they had really good receivers. Washington was a quarterback receiver program. But they're not terribly creative. They can't run the football. You know, the nil. You're not going to buy out Kaylin DeBoer for 70 and they then pay 85 to 90 for another coach. Plus Bama can barely afford the nil. They're holding bake sales for that stuff. And I think this is. The SEC is fine. But, and I've been talking about this for two years, in a lot of SEC schools, the big car dealer is the rich guy. The car dealer is like 7th to 10th in line at a lot of these programs like Oregon and Ohio State and Michigan, Penn State. It's not just the car dealer. It's not.
- [24:51]
John
How many hundred millionaires and billionaires does Marcus Freeman meet as his alumni booster base.
- [24:56]
Matt
Same, same with Michigan. So there's, I mean, Brian Kelly's complained about this a little bit. It was kind of predictable. Small Southern towns. Alabama has maybe one or two big donors. Bear Bryant's son, I think is their biggest donor.
- [25:08]
John
Yeah, he is.
- [25:08]
Matt
But I don't know exactly what you do and I don't know how to explain it. I mean, I think they're pretty ordinary at quarterback. That's pre. That's pretty clear. They still recruit very well. But some of this, you know, this goes back to Saban, like the first year of the nil when he started kind of grumbling about it. And I had somebody who I trust tell me he knows he can't compete with the Texas schools. He know, he remember that last game he played Sark. And Texas was bigger on both sides of the ball. We hadn't seen that in 15 years. Even LSU didn't look like Alabama. Maybe Georgia did. I don't know. I, I just don't know the answer to solve this because DeBoer is. It's, it's off center.
- [25:53]
John
I've always theorized and I've told you about this about regions in college football matter. We're in the NFL. Andy Reid could coach Tampa, Kansas City, the Rams. Like, it doesn't matter in the NFL. In college it does. There's a reason. Like Kirby and Dabo are in the south, not at the University of Washington or at Michigan. It doesn't work. We saw Rich Rod try to go to Michigan and it flopped. You know, think about who DeBoer a couple years ago, Fresno State played ASU and I went to the tailgate and I went to the game and I was with a bunch of, you know, older players. But there was a young guy there who had just played for Both Tedford and DeBoer and he said, you know, the thing about Kalin, I was like, what. What's his secret sauce? He's like, you know, he's actually pretty mellow. He's not a rah rah intense. You know, Tedford while being a west coast guy. He's from la, Fresno State, Oregon, California. Kind of an old school hard ass like Ted for might have been an outlier. Probably could have pulled off coaching in the south or coaching, you know, Ohio State or something like that. Personality that is not Kalin think who Kaylin. I know he technically didn't take over for but he essentially did. Chris Peterson is a cerebral. He's. He's a psychological like, he's. He's motivating by kindness. Kind of like a different version of Pete Carroll. Like Pete Carroll resurrected his career at USC in 2001 in the early 2000s. I don't think he could have done it at the University of Florida or at Georgia. I don't think it works. And I think everyone at that university and I know we got new players but the administration, everyone around there was kind of used to Nick Saban being the dictator. I mean Nicktator was his name and they kind of liked it because everyone benefited. Everyone got rich off it and you just kind of fell in line and he screamed at you. It's weird. Like, obviously he's an impressive guy, but he's an asshole in the football sense, in the leadership sense. He had a Steve Jobs like quality to him that it's, it's hard to replicate that they don't really exist. Urban kind of have that.
- [27:42]
Matt
Yeah.
- [27:43]
John
And it work. It works now. You got to come through. But there's a reason every single former player Whether you played in the NFL or you didn't. The way they talk about him because they know, like, listen, if you just follow his lead, he's leading you the right place. Kaylin's not like that. And I think these guys at the program, on and off the roster are used to Nick. And his style is the polar opposite. Look at Texas. You had Mack on when I was on your show. Mac's kind of an easygoing, you know, it's North Carolina, Texas. He would have thrived in Los Angeles. I bet everyone at the country club loves Mac. He's. Sark's like that. So Texas, actually, Nick might not have worked there. Remember when they were going to sign him like a decade ago? Probably would have failed. Maybe they needed a guy. Pete Carroll probably would have worked at the University of Texas.
- [28:28]
Matt
Yep.
- [28:28]
John
You know where, you know, you get Oklahoma Stoops, a little more of a hard ass. And Venable, like they've had historically, a little bit more Barry Switzer, a little more edge to him.
- [28:38]
Matt
Yes.
- [28:38]
John
And I just don't think in the south, like at Florida, at Georgia, like, whoever. If Kirby were to leave the NFL in a couple years, you could not bring it up. Kirby is a. Is basically a younger version of Nick. And I'm not just talking about the players. I'm talking the entire school.
- [28:53]
Matt
Well, kind of feeds off that vibe.
- [28:55]
John
Kaylin is like, goes like, there's been these weird reports about people up late. It's like, I don't know. This is not going to work.
- [29:02]
Matt
Well, I mean, it's, it's. I remember hearing a story years ago, somebody asked Nick Saban about coaching at usc. I mean, like, remember when Texas made a run at him and there was talk that, you know, USC would make a run at him. And somebody told me through like a source of a source of a source. So I don't know how accurate it is, but, you know, Nick had said, you know, when you recruit in the south, it's yes, sir, no, sir. It's very formal and respectful with athletes. He goes, you recruit out west, they're on their iPhone when you're pitching them, like they're distracted kids. They're from the big city. It's different. And I think Nick worked in the south twice. Remember when Nick got to the NFL, there were all those discussions. No eye contact. Don't talk to Nick. How much is true stuff usually has their threads of truth in that stuff. My take is Nick is a very intense guy and he works in an incredibly intense environment. He would be frustrated as Hell, going to some of these like laissez faire program. Usc, it's got that California cool kind of the beach thing. I mean they love football, but it's not every. Pat Hayden was always like when he was there, he would say we want our kids to have a life. That was not a thing with Saban.
- [30:11]
John
Well, it's just, it's just a different human being. Even though we all live in America. You know, recruiting Santa Margarita or Centennial, Corona. I remember when I was with the Eagles, Fletcher Cox was going to be a top 15 pick. We ended up he could bare back horses. So the kids in the south, they're coming from much more of a rural. It's a different world. Yeah, you know, it's like they all are hunters. Their psychological makeup as people is completely different than the West. I've never lived in the South. Yeah, but being around football and knowing these guys, knowing people just through football, spent most of my time out here in the Northeast. We are wired completely different than that region.
- [30:51]
Matt
Oh yeah.
- [30:51]
John
And now some of these quarterbacks right from the, from Southern California have gone.
- [30:55]
Matt
Listen to the South. I vacation this summer in the Northeast. It is very much a discussion is what Ivy League kid, what Ivy League school did your kid go to? Like the all entire families in this area that I'm in. My wife and I just sort of laughed. I'm like directional school, she's Ball State, you know, and we just sort of, we just laugh at it. It's like. And the people are nice, they're gracious, they're not in your. But it's just like it's Dartmouth, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn talk. And it's just the culture in the Northeast is the Ivy League and it's academic and I love it. I love all that, you know, that tradition. I didn't live it, but every one of our. I lived in the Pacific Northwest. It's crunchy, it is really liberal. It is live and let live. In my high school, half the. A third of the class smoked pot. We had keggers every night. It was like no, it was just. It's just a different world. So I, I do think Calen DeBoer may not be a perfect personality fit.
- [31:57]
John
You know, but they are stuck with them. Like you said this notion and listen, I've seen a lot of like reputable people like hey, could Gruden 60, $70 million to buy him out. The roster costs 20 to $30 million. So that's about 80, $90 million. And like you said it, they don't Want to hire some random so that the next guy is going to cost 80, 90 million. His coordinators are really expensive. It is a very, very lucrative endeavor to pull the trigger. What happened to Jimbo Fisher a couple years ago, that is not taking place anymore. So unless Kaylin just quits because he hates it there and it's like, hey, I could go back and coach Cal or you know, some school on the west coast, which makes much more sense probably for him. He's not going to give up that much money. So they, they are kind of stuck with them. And listen, they've, they've lived a pretty privileged life. I mean it'd be like they're at the level of they had like Bezos or Larry Ellison money and now they feel broke. You know, this isn't, well, you know, I was worth a couple million, now I got nothing. They were living high on the hog, right? And this is very glaring to them. I would also say that the no rank teams, I do think on a year to year basis, two years ago Florida State went 13 and oh, the Rams best defensive player is now Jared Verse, either second or third best player is Braden Fisk. Bernardo Green, the corner starts for the 49ers. Keon Coleman is the number one or two wide receiver for the Bills. I mean that team is, that was an SEC team. So what if we look back, Florida State, like Miami and Clemson, like all three of those teams are just really good this year. Well, I think it's very possible. I, I, I watched enough football to know those three teams have a lot of talent on the roster right now.
- [33:28]
Matt
They did. And now for our next segment, whiskey business. Yes, Whiskey business. Brought to you by Green River Whiskey, the official whiskey of the Colin Coward podcast. So I want to get into the Micah Parsons trade and this is why I supported what the Cowboys did. As you know and our fans know, everybody has different windows. When I started the volume we didn't have, we couldn't take huge swings. We didn't have the revenue. We didn't even have a sales department. Now we do. There are different windows for companies, for teams, for franchises, for people in their life. In your 20s, some guys don't want to get married. They want to be all career. By your 30s you're thinking about kids and getting married. We all have different windows and timelines. So Dallas, the last two free agency periods, John had no flexibility. And my take is in the NFL. That's one of the reasons the Chiefs let Tyreek Hill go and why Howie Roseman is constantly letting Good players go keeping the great ones. But. But he's always making deals because Howie wants flexibility. Well, the last two years, the Cowboys have had none of it. What would they have had if they signed Micah to 47 million? Now they offered him 40, but like this team could not pay Derrick Henry 8 million and they had unquestionably the worst running back room in the league. So my take is they liked Micah, they offered him 40. But to get two firsts, that's now four firsts in the next two years. And by the way, after watching Nussmeier and a Sam Levitt, the quarterback at Arizona State, if they end up being one of the six to seven worst teams, they may be able to get a quarterback with their first pick and the next Micah with their next pick in the first round. I mean, this is a draft where if you're drafting in the top eight, you don't have to move up to get potentially a really good quarterback. So in Green Bay, in an incredibly deep, well coached offensive Division with Kevin O', Connell, Matt LeFleur, Ben Johnson, Green Bay needs a playmaker on the edge to get offenses off the field. And they, you know, in our lifetime, take out Reggie White, they, they just don't have. Kenny Clark's a good interior defender against the run. Cowboys can't stop the run. Kenny Clark comes in. Green Bay needs a playmaker on the edge to get offenses off the field and get it Back to Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. So I thought it worked for both teams. Dallas's defense was bad with Micah. It'll be atrocious without him. But my take is the time to move. A superstar is in a rebuild year and isn't it clearly a rebuild year?
- [36:14]
John
Well, can we just lay one thing on the table is because most of the reaction has been pretty universal. How could you trade Micah Parsons? There are untradeable players in the history of this league. You know, Walter Payton, Reggie White, Deion Sanders, guys in their prime, they're just unstoppable. That is not. You can run at Micah Parsons. He is not Reggie White. He's not even the best player at his position in the league.
- [36:34]
Matt
No, by the way, you could argue initially John Somebody, they put him in a stack linebacker inside and that people didn't think he had good eyes, they didn't think he anticipated well. So they pretty much let him be a pass rusher. Well, he's not as big as Hutchinson, he's not as big as Miles. I would argue he's a bit undersized. But they let him kind of play that see the ball, attack the ball position and it works. But he's, he's a tradable player, 100%.
- [37:03]
John
He's a great athlete and he's an instinctive pass rusher. But you know, if there are 70 plays in the game, they're not all 70 pass attempts on third and 10. So we've seen in the playoffs people run at him. That being said, I think the issue that I have with this situation is anytime you trade a player of this magnitude, like they did with Khalil Mack to right before the you're getting future first round picks. You have no clue where they're going to be. They could be excellent. We saw with Russell Wilson, they ended up in Matt Stafford trade. They go really high because a team has an injury, but they also could be back to back picks in the, in the mid-20s. When you trade a guy before the draft one, you have more people coming to the table to be interested in the trade because there's more teams with cap room and you can know exactly, at least that given year where that pick lands. So you can value it. I do feel it was. Do you think there was any influence on Jerry with this documentary coming out? And because you watch that documentary go, God, Jerry and his hate. That guy was sharp. That guy was a maverick. That guy was willing. And Jerry's kind of been a lot of people, rightfully so have been like, yeah, Jerry's kind of scared to do deals. Well, because a lot of people, I bet my 401k my aggress looks a lot different than yours, right? I mean, I looks a lot different than a guy that's 75 years old. Like Jerry is just at a point in time in his life. But I wonder if he's like, oh, you think I won't do this? And obviously once Micah, you can't convince me. When Micah showed up eating nachos and then laid on the training table, you know, Jerry's old, stubborn, and the deal wasn't going that well in terms of the negotiation. It was kind of like a double F you. So he's just like, okay, we're willing to trade him. And then they did.
- [38:40]
Matt
Micah's agent is also an agent that has gotten his clients good money and a lot of. I think he's the Deshaun Watson's agent, if I recall. So he signed a couple of deals where the teams look back a year later and don't like the deal. Now I do think Micah off the edge is exactly What Green Bay needs again, Ben Johnson, Kevin o', Connell, you know, Dan Campbell and that whole line. These are these, these offenses can keep your offense off the field. So like, I like what Green Bay did. And the other thing about Green Bay is that they've always been able to build good football teams. I mean, for years they only drafted defense in the first round. And yet they had great O lines and excellent tight ends. And Green Bay drafts and develops very well second round, third round, fourth round. There are teams in this league when Bill Polian ran the Colts, they nailed their first two picks every time. Middle rounds. Meh. But, but Green Bay has shown a history to pick up starters in the fourth and fifth and sixth round at a much higher percentage than the rest of the league over the last 30 years. So I think, I think what they're telling you, Green Bay likes this roster and they think they got about a two to three year window to make hay. So they're rarely aggressive. I tip of the cap to Green Bay going for it.
- [40:00]
John
I think a lot of people, if you're a Packer fan, was like, where was this move mid Aaron Rodgers, right? Because that, that was our window. And that was a big reason that a lot of people are critical of Ted Thompson. It's like, God, he's just kind of a, kind of a wuss, kind of conservative. When's he going to take a big swing? And now they finally do it with Jordan Love. We'll see if it works out. I like the Packers. Before this move, I text a lot of people in the league asking them their thoughts. One universal take was, he's not like a troublemaker or anything, but Micah Parsons isn't. Albert Brer reported about this when cd when Zach Martin, when Dak went through this, the locker room loves the guy. That was not the reaction internally, according to this. And I had a GM who's very successful text me like, listen, Green Bay, their, their organizational culture has been elite for 30 years. It's been very consistent. It's just an easy place to operate. They're bringing in Micah, who comes from a culture where it's just all over the map.
- [40:54]
Matt
In Dallas, I was told the same thing.
- [40:57]
John
Into Micah Parsons bringing him in there. He is now making way more money than everybody. They have an unproven, you know, still quarterback who, you know, your quarterback's always kind of the leader of the team. He's like, it is just there is some risk involved when you factor in the finances, when you factor in this big personality. He now is the face of the team. It's just, it's a pretty. It would have been. His point was like it would have been easier if, if you had Aaron. Even if this guy, at the time, whatever the economics were, was making more than Aaron. But Aaron's the face of the team. Mike is now immediately the face of the team. See what you want about the Cowboys before this trade, like still Dak was. When you turn on Sunday Night Football is Dax face. Like it's not even a question. Micah Parsons. So let's just. We'll see now they feel pretty good about their infrastructure. Xavier McKinney. There are some questions. Fit right in. There's a big difference though in the amount of money Xavier McKinney's making in this guy. Who knows he's untouchable.
- [41:49]
Matt
Yeah. I mean, Mike has a personality. You see it in the podcast. I think he's not going to get in trouble in Green Bay and not like he got in a lot of trouble in Dallas. But you know, Micah, Mike is a personality. And I think when you have a weak coaching staff or a weak head coach, which Schottenheimer is, I think I. My take was if this team started 1 in 5 and you signed Micah to a big deal, like I think Dallas is going to be atrocious. I really do. I think, I think.
- [42:18]
John
Why are people acting like they just traded Lawrence Taylor? Because that's not what they just did. Well, you know, they weren't any good.
- [42:24]
Matt
Well, here's the other thing. If you were paying Dak44 instead of what you're paying him, then you could have, then you guys could have met at 45 million. All the problems here start. And we know this, John. It's hard to win when you pay Josh Allen top of the market salary. Okay. It's hard. You're not going to have that second slot receiver or that third really dependable, you know, interior linebacker. You lose. I mean, you've seen this over the last couple of years that Buffalo has moved off multiple veteran players in the secondary.
- [42:59]
John
Half their team last year.
- [43:01]
Matt
Yeah, well, and that's. And they're still winning with Josh Allen. And Josh Allen took a reasonably team friendly deal. Dak is a B quarterback making A plus money. So you are. And he needs an entourage. He is not Josh Allen, Lamar. So the problems all stem from you massively overpaid a B quarterback. And so I mean people, and this is the case, the younger the media people, the more they report pay the player. They're always pro player. I have learned something over my life that like the Rams could not trade Jared Verse. Like this kid was defensive rookie of the year. Like everybody's got a guy, even take out the quarterback there. There's a guy like Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia. They could win if he left. But boys with Jalen hurts in the pocket sometimes, little tenuous if you trust him. They're just guys you can't move. I will defend the CD Lamb contract. I think he's a top five or six receiver. He's a playmaker. I just, I wasn't comfortable making Micah the highest paid defensive end. I've seen him in a couple of playoff games. He has been invisible in those games against better offensive linemen because they run right at him. Right.
- [44:22]
John
That's right at his thing. So. So how do I pay a guy now? I get what the packers need. I think it's easy for Jerry to go, well, I'm going to give a guy 47. I'm going to match this contract for a guy who's a liability in the run game. And the packers need that. And Rashawn Gary is a much more complete player. I also defend the Cowboys, the timing. I don't. I mean, I would have traded him before the draft, but clearly they weren't planning on doing it then. Right. He thought he could get a deal done at $40 million. But when you trade them now, they go, how did they only get that? Well, as someone told me in the league a couple years ago, they said, this isn't the NBA, but players now have more juice than they ever had 20 years ago. A team would have been like, hey, even if the contract's not done, we will trade for this player if you're over them and we'll figure it out. We have his control. Teams are not doing that anymore. So if I'm going to trade multiple ones, there has to be signed at the bottom line. Well, so Micah Parsons kind of controlled, had a big, you know, part in Mulgetta in where he went. Because you go, well, you could have got more from team X. Who, the Lions, the Raiders, whoever that they would have given two ones. Two twos and a player. Well, if they were offering $20 million less than the Packer salary, he goes, I'm not signing that contract when this contract's on the table. So let's just say there was another team willing to pay an extra high draft pick. But they're the money they go, we're not paying them 47 million a year and 140 guaranteed. We'll give them 120 guaranteed. Well, he's like, I'm not signing that. Well, then they're not going to trade him there.
- [45:49]
Matt
Right?
- [45:49]
John
Because that team's like, well, the trade doesn't, it's not on the table then. So Parsons, you know, there was an NBA element of he got to dictate a little bit where he went because you were going to sign the contract the moment you traded him. Khalil Mack, several years ago, the Bears, they signed when the trade is done. So the contract is a huge part of the negotiations. When I see all these people, How'd the Cowboys only get this? Because Parsons dictated the terms by the contract. And clearly I would imagine some of the teams very interested were nowhere near in the ballpark of what the packers gave him. And this is what makes the NFL so unique. This team without an owner in the middle of nowhere can pay a guy a historic amount of money. It's like the opposite of baseball, which is cool and it's part of the NFL, but pretty risky deal. I mean, this is, I give Gudekens a lot of credit, but he's kind of laying it all out there on the table on this one.
- [46:42]
Matt
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Matt
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- [50:58]
Matt
Okay, So I want to go through and I don't know if we'll do this on a. On a weekly bit, but I want to go through the NFL week one odds. Now. I'm going to throw a couple games at you and just a couple games that I looked at and they kind of jumped out to me. So you know my feeling on Seattle, I. I like Sam Darnold, but I also think this is a really good coach. And so one of the lines that confuses me a little bit is that Seattle at home is getting two and a half points. Give me your take on the Niners health. I mean, they have real issues at wide receiver. So if they're going to beat Seattle, it's going to be some running game. You're not throwing the ball downfield. A ton on Seattle. And I think Seattle's pass rush is going to be pretty good. I'm surprised. It's my favorite pick of the week is Seattle at home. Plus points. First of all, it's a division rivalry, so these games are always close. So I love taking even average Pittsburgh teams historically can cover against much better Baltimore rosters, division games. I generally take the points. But Seattle, I think top to bottom has more athletes in their prime. Hunger gone. Greenlawn gone. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey not in their prime. I think Seattle has more athletes in their prime. Are you surprised by that line?
- [52:27]
John
I think the market believes that Seattle's not going to be that great because they're five to one to win the division and the 49ers are like plus 150. So based on the divisional odds, they are a heavy long shot. If you look at every division, they by far the only team that has been good the last several years. Nine wins, 10 wins. And it feels like Vegas gives them no chance to win. And this is a good example. Juwan Jennings. This wasn't practice today, so they've rekindled. So you got Juwan Jennings back with Pierce all KITTLE, you know, McCaffrey like they actually are offensively in theory, healthy. Trent Williams, Purdy coming into this game. Yeah, I just think the market is pretty low on Seattle. You and I are high on them. My problem is whenever I bet on the Niners aggressively, Super Bowls, they've bit me in the ass. And whenever I bet against them, they always come through and win. So I just, I kind of stay away from the Niners. But to me, there is not a better long shot on the board to win their division than 5 to 1 Seattle. They won 10 games last year. They had the same amount of wins as the team that we. We treat the Rams like they're a 13, 14 win team. They've won 10. They won 10 games last year. I think they won 10 games the year before. And we just, we hold them to high esteem, rightfully so because they have a really good coach. Quarterbacks back in major trouble. The 49ers, at any moment half their team can be on injured reserve. I do not trust Kyler. It is by far of the value. There's not a better on the board. And I'm with you. Seattle can get weird. I do think divisional games week one can be hard to bet. Like I do think the 49ers are going to be pretty solid this year. I think they got for the first time in years kind of a chip on their shoulder, kind of get to fly under the radar a little bit. Sam Darnold's, you know, this is a first start with a new team offense a little different than what, you know, Kevin o' Connell likes to pass a lot, which is Sam Light. I mean was they adjusting? Jefferson Kubiak like his dad, like Kyle, he's going to call a lot of runs. If they can run the ball, they're going to be really good play defense. But we'll have to see, I mean their run game, you know, Kenneth Walker be healthy. Charbonnet, we like.
- [54:32]
Matt
Well the Niners brought in Robert Sala and the reason being is they don't have the same personnel. I mean if Bosa's dinged up it's Fred Warner and cross your fingers. It is really an. I mean I think we look at the Niners and we just. Sometimes you fall into this you romance because for about four years they just had incredible defensive personnel. They don't on the back end right now.
- [54:57]
John
Yeah, I mean I think they're going to need kind of like the Rams two years ago you didn't know who half the roster was and then a couple of years later they are just solidified players on defense. Not counting Verse, you know who they drafted high but a lot of mid round, late round picks, they're going to need that to happen and that that's what the 49ers did originally, right? Kittle, fifth round pick, Greenlaw, fifth round pick. Purdy seven. They've hit on a lot of late round picks. That's how you get good in the NFL. The Ravens let a lot of guys hit free agency. Why? Because they crushed the third through the seventh rounds. Because that's where you make your hay. In the end, obviously, you got to hit on first round picks, but when you get good in the NFL, it's hard to pick in the 20s. That's the one thing a lot of people are saying about the Micah trade. It's like, well, the packers are just good back to back years. That's pick 25 and 28. Right. It's hard to hit on those picks. Ask Jerry when they started winning games with McCarthy. They're drafting Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith. It's. It's a lot harder to. It's much easier to draft in the top five when Jamar Chase or Penne Sewell or Jaden Daniels is staring at you. So I like Seattle this year. This game to me is just.
- [55:58]
Matt
I don't know.
- [55:59]
John
You convinced me. Niners win, Seattle win. Seattle kicks their ass. The Niners are in. That's why week one, like, I like a lot like the Titans, you know, the Panthers. I like teams like that Week one that everyone just thinks are going to suck. Some of the times these divisional games, like Giants Commanders, like I'm. That's a. Stay away from me.
- [56:15]
Matt
Yeah.
- [56:16]
John
I don't know.
- [56:17]
Matt
Well, you tell me.
- [56:18]
John
The Giants win, I could, I could see it. Cowboys are the one that's like, I have a hard time seeing them win.
- [56:22]
Matt
Yeah. Teams convince themselves, even if they're Tennessee, they convince themselves they're a playoff team by week four or five. You start losing guys and everybody in the room knows. But yeah, Tennessee getting over a touchdown, the hook. I'd stay away from that one. The other game that's fascinating to me is it does matter. You're allowed in Green Bay or Jacksonville or maybe a Seattle to have really ugly losses. You're not going to get crushed. Philadelphia, San Francisco, Chicago. It's loud. So Chicago is an underdog at home, getting a point and a half against Minnesota. And Minnesota is a mystery team. I don't know what J.J. mcCarthy is. I really do not know. I've heard enough from people I trust. I got text by somebody I really trust a few weeks ago. He said it's a work in progress, but if Chicago loses at home, it'll be a huge, huge night in Chicago. That shit could unravel fast, really fast if you had to make a prediction. What do you think the Bears and Caleb look like? Forget winning and losing. I mean, they're the underdog at home, which I kind of like that position. But what do you think it'll look like?
- [57:35]
John
I think it's going to be really hard. I mean, Caleb is much More talented of a thrower. But I think there could be some parallels to the situation that we saw with Arch in Texas trying to play offense against Patricia. I mean, Flores is one of, if not the best defensive coordinator in the league right now. Their personnel is actually improved from last year. I like Minnesota in this game, but I like you. I don't expect, hard to say J.J. is going to come out and throw three or four touchdowns. We'll see. Chicago's defense, a little overrated. Are they quite as good as we thought they were going to be like a year ago? I don't know, but I could see them like, I expect this to be a lower scoring, like 17 to 14 type game. And if in that situation, I'm just going to take Flores in Minnesota and Kevin o', Connell, I mean, he's just. Listen, first game at home gets a little weird if you have a couple three and outs. Like in a moment like this, you're going to need some positive early momentum because if the crowd gets a little weird if you have a couple that first try. Again, it was a preseason game against the Bills, twos and threes, but he drove him right down in all of Chicago. Took it. Just took a sigh of relief, right? Like, oh, my God, he might be able to. He might be okay. Because in the Ben Johnson thing, they played the Chiefs. I watched when I was flying to Hawaii that last preseason game, they got their ass kicked early on and Ben Johnson came out and said after the game, like, that's just unacceptable. Like, that's just too, at this point in time, too sloppy. Well, who are the Chiefs? A big time team that took that game seriously. Remember I told you when we were together like two and a half weeks ago, that second preseason game, Andy, because they got their ass kicked by Seattle, the Bills, when they got their ass kicked by the Bears. That's the point in time in camp where he's been driving them, driving him. The legs are heavy. But that last preseason game is more of a ramp up, especially with Kansas City starters play a little bit. You take it pretty seriously. Like you're coming into that game with some, some oomph. Well, the Bears tried to do that too, and it did not go well. Now, in fairness, Kansas City is like a dynasty, but Minnesota is pretty good. They won 14 games last year.
- [59:39]
Matt
Well, Minnesota's got the better roster.
- [59:41]
John
Yes. Yeah, I mean, it would be like to me, if Minnesota wins, it'd be, yeah, Minnesota's good, right? I don't think it's like it'd be big if JJ plays like an elite level game, but even if he's just kind of average on the road, just win, get out of there. It's not like we're not setting it in stone. The headline of their season. Whatever happens with the Bears, right, you lose, it gets weird. That's a major story. They win, he plays well, beats Brian Flores. That's a huge kind of monkey off everyone's back. Okay, we might, we might have. There's a lot. There's. There's not a game in the league, week one where there's just more on the line because of the quarterback situations, the hopes of the, like we said, the expectation for this franchise, anything less than nine and eight will feel awful. And even nine and eight, if you miss the playoffs will be like, God, what, what are we doing here?
- [60:32]
Matt
Yeah, I went through the schedule and it looks like 8 and 9, 9 and 8 to me. And I was optimistic. I had them splitting with their division. Bears don't split with their division. They went one in five last year. They don't split in their division. So. Okay, John and I chopped it up. We are now both going to go watch Belichick and TCU. And I can't wait for that. This is the first of 22, 23, 24 conversations on Sunday night. This is our Monday. I am back to work tomorrow, buddy. And it's great seeing you.
- [61:02]
John
Awesome seeing you.
- [61:04]
Matt
The Volume.
- [61:09]
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John
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- [64:11]
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