Colin Cowherd Podcast - Bears Are A Disaster, The NBA Needs MAJOR Changes, Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 17 + The College Football Playoff

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: Bears Are A Disaster, The NBA Needs MAJOR Changes, Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 17 + The College Football Playoff
Release Date: December 27, 2024
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

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1. Chicago Bears: A Franchise in Disarray

Colin Cowherd opens the discussion by vehemently criticizing the Chicago Bears, labeling them as an "absolute circus" ([02:24]). He highlights the team's inconsistent quarterback situation, noting that Caleb Williams has surpassed even Patrick Mahomes in passing yards this season ([02:45]). Colin points out that despite Williams' talent, the Bears’ organizational instability prevents any real success. He criticizes the ownership, particularly Kevin Warren for his lack of football expertise, and Ryan Poles for ineffective leadership ([03:15]). The fragmentation within the coaching staff and poor draft choices, such as selecting a punter instead of addressing more critical team needs, are also condemned ([03:50]). Colin expresses deep disappointment, stating, “There’s nothing that can redeem this franchise outside of Caleb Williams” ([04:10]).

2. The NBA's Aesthetic Crisis and Need for Reform

Transitioning to the NBA, Colin discusses the league's over-reliance on three-point shots, labeling the current style as "homogenous" and "monotonous" ([09:20]). He references notable figures like Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Adam Silver acknowledging the game's issues ([09:45]). Colin draws parallels to baseball's successful implementation of the pitch clock and the removal of defensive shifts, suggesting that the NBA needs similar actionable changes to enhance the game's appeal ([10:30]). He emphasizes the importance of constructive discussions over defensiveness, advocating for reforms that prioritize the sport's integrity and viewer engagement ([11:00]).

3. Betting NFL Week 17: Sharp or Square Segment

In the "Sharp or Square" segment, Chad Millman and an unidentified co-host analyze betting opportunities for NFL Week 17. Key highlights include:

• Broncos vs. Chargers: Chad suggests betting on the Broncos at +3.5, citing Cincinnati's poor defense ([24:05]). The co-host agrees, highlighting Joe Burrow’s overperformance due to the Bengals' weak pass rush ([24:32]).

  Colin Cowherd ([24:05]): "I think this one jumped out to me as an overreaction."

• Saints vs. Raiders: The Saints are deemed a prime underdog bet after a lackluster performance against Chicago, leading to strong confidence in their upcoming game ([26:05]).

  Chad Millman ([26:05]): "The Saints just got blown out in prime time. They're a historic underdog pick."

• Falcons vs. Commanders: Chad favors the Falcons with a +4 spread, praising Jaden Daniels and Michael Penix's performance ([27:22]). The co-host concurs, noting Penix’s college success translates well to the professional level ([28:15]).

  Chad Millman ([27:22]): "Michael Penix has an arm. He's been in massive games."

• Bills vs. Commanders: Chad recommends the Bills at -8.5, reflecting on their dominant performance over New England and the Commanders' inconsistencies ([29:34]).

  Chad Millman ([29:34]): "Buffalo flexes here. It’s a big game for them."

• Panthers vs. Bucks: Chad advises betting on the Panthers despite Tampa’s higher ranking, emphasizing Bryce Young’s exceptional play and the Panthers' offensive capabilities ([32:06]).

  Chad Millman ([32:06]): "Bryce Young is playing like a number one pick."

• Rams vs. Cardinals: Chad opts for the Rams at +6.5, citing their improved health and superior coaching compared to Arizona’s struggles ([39:47]).

  Chad Millman ([39:47]): "I have to bet the Rams. It’s a divisional game, and they’re the right side."

4. College Football Playoff Insights

Chad Millman extends the betting analysis to college football, emphasizing the critical role of defense in securing a national championship ([34:14]). He predicts that teams like Texas and Ohio State, known for their strong defenses, will vie for the title. Colin concurs, highlighting Ohio State's recent performances and their advantageous position despite early-season losses ([35:04]).

Chad Millman ([34:14]): "I don't believe you can win a national championship with a bad defense."

5. General Betting Trends and Strategies

Chad reflects on his betting year, admitting a challenging season but noting successful picks like the Commanders ([42:50]). He discusses broader betting trends, such as the high win rates of favorites and the underperformance of underdogs, advising listeners to consider fading the public and focusing on value bets like home underdogs ([46:32]).

Chad Millman ([46:32]): "Favorites have gone 71% straight up this year... I want to fade the public."

6. Conclusion

Colin wraps up the episode by reiterating the key discussions on the Bears' franchise issues, the NBA's need for structural changes, and strategic betting insights for NFL Week 17 and the College Football Playoff. He encourages listeners to engage in thoughtful conversations and make informed decisions based on expert analyses.

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Notable Quotes

• Colin Cowherd on the Bears:
  “There’s nothing that can redeem this franchise outside of Caleb Williams.” ([04:10])

• Chad Millman on Betting the Saints:
  “The Saints just got blown out in prime time. They're a historic underdog pick.” ([26:05])

• Chad Millman on the Panthers:
  “Bryce Young is playing like a number one pick.” ([32:06])

• Chad Millman on Betting Strategies:
  “Favorites have gone 71% straight up this year... I want to fade the public.” ([46:32])

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Key Takeaways

• The Chicago Bears are struggling due to poor management and lack of cohesive leadership, despite having talented players like Caleb Williams.
• The NBA is facing aesthetic and structural challenges, primarily due to an overemphasis on three-point shooting, necessitating significant reforms.
• In NFL Week 17 betting, strategic picks include backing underdog teams like the Saints and Rams, while recognizing the dominance of favorites in current betting trends.
• College football's playoff prospects heavily favor teams with strong defensive capabilities, with Ohio State and Texas highlighted as top contenders.
• Successful betting strategies may involve focusing on value bets and understanding prevailing trends, such as the high success rate of favorites.

This episode offers a comprehensive analysis of current sports dynamics, providing listeners with insightful critiques and actionable betting advice.

Transcript

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Doug Gottlieb]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Doug Gottlieb]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[Chad Millman]

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I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and talking about this awful Seattle 6 to 3 win over the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over 300 yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes. That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the first time in forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this team. And this season, I mean, they're using a. Basically their third different person is sort of assembling the game plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the nfc. He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really nice throws tonight. I mean, Geno Smith is, I mean, just a Hammond egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent, but there's just nothing you can do with this franchise. There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises. Let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets. They had Robert Sala for years, an excellent defensive coach. Joe Douglas whiffed on a quarterback in a Covid year. But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks. It's very good. He also went and got Devonte Adams before he got fired. And Devonte and Aaron are connecting. Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic, accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams. I mean, it's. I don't trust the ownership. You know, Kevin Warren, the president has a reputation as more politician than football expert Ryan Poles. You know, I mean, listen, keep him fine. Move off him fine. I don't think he's done a terrible job last Year for picks. He took a punter. That's not what I would have done. They could have, you know, made more moves. Eber, Flush, the staff. It's a mess. I mean, there's just nothing that's redeemable about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple of players. Montana, Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore, you know, they've got a couple of players I like, but Everybody in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Caleb Williams had privately going to Chicago, I mean, I reported this last year, I got pushback on it, but people in his camp were worried. This franchise, I mean, look at Chicago sports right now. White Sox, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears. I don't have any ability to decipher why not. Great ownership is a place to start. But I feel sad for the kid because. And you can see the talent. I mean, you would have to be trying to make an argument to say you can't see his talent. I mean, last night or tonight was the first interception he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween. And that's why this idea that you can just go out and get some, you know, Ben Johnson and he's going to change the world. You know, that guy's never been a head coach at the high school level. There are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL. I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs are good. And if I was Mike Vrabel, I'd sit it out for a year because I think next year you could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out there next year. Keep your eye on if Sean McDermott does not win in Buffalo. I think Sean McDermott, a good coach, could be in trouble. So those are really good opportunities. And there's only been three great coaching opportunities in the last eight years. Green Bay, Matt LaFleur, I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas and getting Justin Herbert with the Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities. I wouldn't want this Chicago job despite Caleb's talent. I wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other takeaway in this game, it's Funny, the number one position in the NFL over the last 20 years that has been the biggest bust rate in the first round is wide receiver. And obviously wide Receivers can make dynamic plays, but the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba, first rounder, DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end in Noah Fant, excellent running back. Charbonnet, who's their second back, but very quality. Geno Smith can't play. You're 8 and 9, 9 and 8 with Geno Smith. That's just what it is. You know, Roma, Dunze, what can you do? They've been better off going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead. They went in later rounds and got some prospect I think from Yale and you know, can he play? We'll see. You look at the Chargers, who are going to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver. They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs. They have two of the best young tackles, offensive tackles in the NFL. I was just watching it tonight and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver talents and D.J. moore and Roma Dunze and D.K. metcalf, second rounder and Smith and Jigba. What's it matter if you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you have a mediocre quarterback? And I like John Snyder as general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job, but I think he made a major mistake last year and the year before not drafting a quarterback. And I said it at the time, I'm not, you know, I'm not looking through the rearview mirror here. I said it last year. Seattle's roster is really solid D line, solid skill positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just mediocre at quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight. And you know, I just. Chicago fans, Al Michaels touched on this. I mean, they, they are being handed just tire fires and all their sports. And to come out tonight and pack that stadium is, you know, it's a tip of the cap to one of the great American cities and sports cities because fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality is awful. It's always been a very political city and it feels like the same with the Bears. It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So again, I think my first choice would be Vrabel. I don't know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about all these hotshot offensive coordinators. A year ago, Bobby Slowik, Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score this year. C.J. stroud has regressed badly. You know, Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a Lot, but he struggled as a head coach, college and pro. You got to be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I don't even know where he's at now. He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think when a franchise is broken, you got to get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit Harbaugh, Mike Frabel. That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess. You know, I thought it was interesting this week before we get to Chad Millman with our sharp and square segment. I think one of the things that is a pretty good sign that you're going to solve a problem is, is when you admit you have a problem. I think anytime a sport or a business gets defensive about an issue, it just signals you're not going to solve the issue. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Joe Missoula and Adam Silver have all acknowledged in the last 10 days that the NBA aesthetically has a problem now. They got very nice ratings. You know, LeBron and Steph just get ratings, period. Doesn't matter if they play together in the Olympics. The finals are on Christmas. LeBron and Steph get numbers. They still carry the league from a TV rating standpoint. But I think I like the idea that all the top stars, your KD, LeBron, the Celtics coach and Adam Silver acknowledge, yeah, we got 90 threes a game. It's just, it's homogenous, it's monotonous, it's cookie cutter. And you know, a lot of people are trying to take this issue and anybody that's critical of the league, well, you know, you're an old head. You're romanticizing the past. I have said 10 times on the air, minimum. The Pacers, Knicks free throw shooting contest, Reggie Miller against Spike Lee is the most overrated finals of my life. It was one of the team they were scoring in the 70s. It was awful. I mean like seven, eight of the 10 starters couldn't shoot. You know, it was all these romanticized tough guys that really couldn't handle the ball or shoot. It's not that I've always been an NBA fan and playoff basketball is always better because the mid range game comes back. But it's very much, I would liken it to baseball and that Rob Manfred has never has raised the ire of purists, but he listened and he went to the minor leagues and they tried this pitch clock and it worked. Did it for a couple of years. They Brought it to the bigs. There's no question I watch more baseball. No question. I watched more baseball last year and they got rid of the defensive shift. Cause he wanted more stars on the bases, not in the dugout after lining out to right field where the second baseman was standing. So these criticisms, the fact that the biggest stars in the NBA and the commissioner are acknowledging. Yeah, there's just too many guys that shouldn't be shooting threes. Shooting threes. I think that's good for the game. I think these discussions, when you make them actionable, are great for the NBA because, listen, it's some of the world's greatest athletes. Playoff basketball can be a lot of fun. The league sometimes has dipped its toe in politics and that's turned off a lot of people in the country. And I get it. I'd love to see Jimmy Butler go to a team and add some juice to a team like the Warriors. But I've always loved pro basketball and I've always loved basketball in general. But I thought this week was a really healthy, not divisive, really healthy discussions about the future of the game. Baseball made changes, completely paid off within a year and really paid off within two years. So people can argue on the Internet. It's almost like the NIL and the transfer portal. I'm for both, but you need guidelines. Miami's basketball coach just retired, said the NIL has no guardrails. I'm out. Of course, people jump on Jim Laranega and say, Miami Hurricanes coach, well, you moved. You were at George Mason. You moved. Yes, coaches have always moved and they'll continue to move and players will continue to move. But when like 8 guys of your 13 on scholarship bail and you have a good program, you're spending so much time recruiting your own players, forget other high schoolers and AAU stars that it makes the game daunting. It's just a. You need relentless, youthful energy to keep up. I mean, Jay Wright should be coaching now. It just wears you out. And so if you want to retain your best coaches and have more continuity, I don't think the NIL or transfer Portal are ruining the sport. I've had more fun watching college football this year than previous years. But it's okay to have these live discussions and don't get defensive about it. You know, transfer portal. One thing I like about it, quarterbacks run the sport. And if you need one, Oregon's just going to go get a new one every year. Keeps Oregon. You don't have these big, long rebuilding years for these top programs. So I'm for all of this stuff. I just like the NBA discussion and I liked baseball's discussions, which they turned actionable, right? And I liked the nil discussion. You can take any side you want, but anything in life that improves over discussion, I'm here for well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football, hockey action at DraftKings sportsbook. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted. College football, football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey too. Almost 24 7. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day. So many opportunities to place your first bet. Now if you're going to bet for the first time, just make it simple. Pick a team to win, any team. Go to DraftKingsportsbook. They have an app. Download it in 90 seconds. Here's the gift for all new customers. Bet five bucks. Just five bucks. If your bet wins, you get $150 in bonus bets. 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[Doug Gottlieb]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[LeVar Arrington]

Gottlieb from All Ball with Doug Gottlieb. Hey, I'm talking about something that's really serious for a minute. Something personal. Right now. In our country, hate feels like it's at an all time high and we're going backwards and the hate is winning. It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate and it's just enough. We need to stop and regroup, change the momentum as a team, because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team, so let's act like it. And when a team can't get together, what do they do? They call a timeout. We need to take a timeout against hate. So let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate and we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong or hateful, we need to call it out. Visit stand uptoallhate.org or join me in calling for the timeout against hate by following at what's up with Hate or posting the Blue Square emoji.

[Chad Millman]

All right, here we go. Another edition of Sharper Square. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites I will have a couple of college games in here as well because I think some of the lines are work in our favor. By the way, I enjoy the College Football Playoff. You know, first rounds of the NCAA Tournament. First rounds of the tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect. I suspect going forward the second round will be receded. That would be my guess. It will expand to 14 or 16 teams. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the tournament. What say you?

[Unknown]

Yeah, totally. I, I feel like two things out of this one, the first point you just made every year in March Madness, the first round has, you know, 16, 14 blowouts and two great games and, and then like but everyone remembers the great games. The argument will expand the field and then all of a sudden you're going to expand the field and there's going to be a Mac team that ends up be upsetting a Big Ten team at 125 scenario. You're going to have that in college football one day. I don't worry about it. Also too, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State. I was in a text chain with a bunch of IU buddies, right? And I was saying you can guarantee right now, next year over correction for SEC and strength of schedule, you get seven SEC teams, you'll get two Big Ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get Clemson out of the ACC, you'll get who cares out of the Big 12 and you'll get Boise State, right? Because you won't get the at large team. You won't get the third Big Ten team because now the committee is too scared because of all these blowouts. So you're now you're going to get Just the sec. And when those teams are blown out in the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask real. We're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we get some upset sometime down the road. That's my take.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so we'll have some college football picks. We'll start with the NFL Broncos plus three and a half head coach Sean Payton with extra time they played on Thursday. Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think people are overreacting to just how good Joe Burrow is. They can't stop people. Offensive coach, extra time. Listen, they outplayed the Chargers for the first half and you know, then Justin Herbert just did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over. I this one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half Sharper square.

[Unknown]

So it's totally sharp. You nailed it. About Joe Burrow. The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game. Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going to get sacked. He's pirouetting into full on dives and throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

That he had no choice but to look like someone who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of holds the ball. That's kind of his. His M.O. he wants to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it to Higgins. He wants to get it to Jamar Chase. I would want to do that too. So it's not entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos have as good a pass rush as Cleveland and they don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some stats about BO Knicks that should make you feel more comfortable about this because I bet it at three and a half bo nicks against bad defenses. So defenses below the 50% threshold across a variety of metrics in the NFL of which the Bengals are 1, 7 and O straight up and against the spread, 29 points per game, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the board in all DVOA metrics. Like it. It's over inflation on the Broncos losing in primetime and the Bengals Joe Burrow looking like a superhero.

[Chad Millman]

Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't like to bet. I don't like to bet bad teams. But the Saints, probably the worst humiliation in the league this year, a standalone Monday Night Football game, didn't score and it almost looked like they quit. Now they're at home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team. Sharper Square.

[Unknown]

I don't even know what to say, Colin. In all the years we've been doing this, I will come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or here and try to get you to bet the ugliest team in the worst game. And you're like, no, not betting a game I don't want to watch. Not betting a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before we came on the show and I was thinking, all right, what game am I going to get him to bet that? He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the fly and think of a new game. Of course we're betting the Saints here like they're getting. They just got blown out in prime time.

[Chad Millman]

Humiliated.

[Unknown]

Historic. Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players. It doesn't matter who their quarterback is. They're at home. They're as a, as a dog. They just got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play that team on the other side. The Raiders, look, they beat up on the Jags but let's not be fooled. They had a 10 game losing streak and the Jags kept turning the ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in this spot. Give me the Saints. Now I got to scramble and think of what my other game I'm going to try to get you to bet.

[Chad Millman]

Is, well, I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders. And the reason I like it is, I mean Jaden Daniels was a hero at the end but he just tried to give that thing away early. I think Michael Penix is really good. I think they have a good offensive line, will hold. The commander's pass rush off four points is a lot. I do not. I think the Falcons are going to be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title, all right? This is a big game for them. So this is not like the commander and the commanders aren't going to get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just seems to me again, it wasn't that they just beat the Giants. It's not just that but Penix's accuracy. Greg Cosell talked about it this week. This kid has an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like the Falcons plus four, Sharper Square, totally sharp.

[Unknown]

Wise guys bet this down from four and a half to four. I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and a half or lower by the game. A lot of the reasons you just indicated Michael Penck had a lot of fans into the draft, a lot of professional betters. Don't forget the draft has become a huge betting event. Professional betters are digging into game film from college the same way they're digging into game film on a week to week basis now. Because there's a money making opportunity, there's a market, right? Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar from Jaden Daniels, not dissimilar from Bo Nix, not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams. Ton of film on the guy. He played a lot of college football and some of the reasons why these guys who are coming in and having success is because they played so many games. We saw how accurate he could be. I love watching Pennock's throw. Like I think his ball was so pretty. And also I don't think in a primetime game he is someone who would be cowed by the lights the way other rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college football, national championship. That's a big game. I don't care if it's in college. Like that has huge stakes. So he's been in spots. He's older. I like it too.

[Chad Millman]

A couple of favorites that jump out. To me, the Bills slept, walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England. So you get those when you're a dominant team. The jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back. There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last six to eight weeks but I think Buffalo is a significantly better team. Jets are a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here. I think Buffalo also watched the Ravens and the Chiefs flex and play brilliantly as favorites. There's a separation, you know, I don't like big favorites. I'm going to take Buffalo minus eight and a half off a horrible winning performance. Sharper square.

[Unknown]

So it's a little square. The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the jets direction. I can't fault you if you want to do this. Everything you just said is, are all the reasons why I was on the Bills last week. I thought they'd want to flex. I thought they'd want to respond to LaMar Jackson throwing five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that mvp. It didn't happen. Right. Drake May was running. He was throwing accurately. Obviously. Different scenario. I lean into the Bills again. To be honest, I feel like everything you just said about the jets is true. Which is why I would want to back the Bills. Aaron Rodgers had been healthy for the past three weeks. He's now got a minor MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck. I was all over the jets last week. Wise guys were in the jets last week. You cannot count in the jets because the decision making of Jeff Ulbricht is so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic constructs of when to go forward and fourth down, situational play, clock management. If the jets kick a field goal on 4th and 4 from the Rams 12 yard line last week, they're up 12, 6 and that's the ball game. Like the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went for it on fourth downs. And that's basically when the Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on the jets because Jeff Albrecht is just so bad at this.

[Chad Millman]

One more NFL game. This lines move back and forth. Panthers getting seven and a half. Division game at the Bucks. Tampa's the better team. But I'll make the argument. In the last month, Bryce Young is playing like a number one pick and C.J. stroud's playing like a number two pick. The Panthers can move the ball. They've got a good coach. They can move the ball. Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win. But division game, a hot quarterback. It kind of feels like an easy one. Sharper, square, totally sharp.

[Unknown]

I haven't understood this line all week. The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and a half. It went down to eight. Now it's at seven and a half. Because money has been coming under the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know, at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You want to get the hook off of that key number. A lot of games end on 7. That's when we talk about key numbers. 3, 7. Those are the biggest ones. What's interesting about this game is a month ago they played it in Carolina. Tampa was a 6 1/2 point favorite on the road. Won in overtime because Chuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal range for the Bucks. Right? So now you take this game to Tampa. Tampa's only a point and a half better. When the line came out, went from six and a half to eight, right. Normally, home field is three points. What that's telling you is two things. One, bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers. They started off one and seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional betters have been betting, betting, betting the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year I was all over the panthers. Bryce Young, 2.0 is everything you just said. He's rolling out of the pocket, using his legs. Incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits. He's been great. He's been a really good quarterback. Much better than CJ Stroud like you said. So bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, 8 was still a little too high. Wise guys agree, you're sharp. Take the Panthers.

[Chad Millman]

A college football line that jumps out to me. I don't believe you can win a national championship with a bad defense. That's why I think Texas and Ohio State probably play play for the Natty. And I do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad. Boise State ran on it. Ohio State did whatever they wanted on it. Penn State did whatever they wanted against the Ducks. I'm not, I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because it was in Columbus, but Ohio State has played in the Rose bowl before. Weather's not a factor. I said before the season. Oregon's going to beat Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch. It's under a field goal. I take the Buckeye Sharper square.

[Unknown]

Yeah, look, that's the sharp side right now, right? And that's where the money is. And when you see money in sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually get betting percentages and money percentages. Money right now is on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State, which lost to Michigan, lost to Oregon, has had a lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day. The fact they beat up Tennessee the way they did Oregon has been out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense like you just said. So that's the way the money has been going in this game. Look, it's fascinating, it's rare you're going to get the second ranked, third ranked, whatever it is team to be the favorite over the number one ranked team. But that's the spot we're in because of everything you just said.

[Scott Patterson]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[Dr. Josie]

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[Doug Gottlieb]

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[LeVar Arrington]

This is Doug Gottlieb from All Ball with Doug Gottlieb. Hey, I'm talking about something that's really serious for a minute. Something personal. Right now. In our country, hate feels like it's at an all time high and we're going backwards and the hate is winning. It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate and it's just enough. We need to stop and regroup, change the momentum as a team, because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team, so let's act like it. And when a team can't get together, what do they do? They call a timeout. We need to take a timeout against hate. So let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate and we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong or hateful, we need to call it out. Visit stand uptoallhate.org or join me in calling for the timeout against hate by following OTs upwithhate or posting the blue square emoji.

[Chad Millman]

All right, there's a game I want you to kind of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six. It's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well. So from time to time the Rams can feel like a road team at home. This won't be one of these times I get the better quarterback, the better coach. The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're better than the line. That jets game was built for them to lose. Early game, cold weather, good defense and they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's six to six and a half. I have to bet the Rams. I know it's divisional sharper, square if I like the Rams.

[Unknown]

Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But this is sort of the nuance of the betting business is getting the best of the number. This game on Sunday night opened Rams at minus four. So I'll do the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night on the Volume podcast network. We'll do it. Go on it. Go on Air at 7:30. We'll do it live. We're off air before the Sunday night game. The timing is relevant here because we will preview the games that we like. The most first glance, you know, gut instinct. Not having done any research for the following week, this game stood out immediately. We started talking about the Rams minus four. Why is this number so low? The Rams just got out of a trap game against the jets and they won the week before. They got lucky. The Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners in a monsoon. Now they're going home. Chance to clinch the division against a team that is down. James Conner injured. We saw him practicing, but still limping. Offensive lineman injured. Not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't know how to keep his team up yet the way say Sean McVay would or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys against the Bucs. The number during that show went from four to four and a half to five to five and a half. 30 minutes. It moved a point and a half. By Monday morning it was six. And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet the Rams now? Because the wise guys have been betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five, five and a half and a little bit at six until it got to six and a half, it got to seven and wise guy started betting the Cardinals at seven again. The Rams are the right side, but if you want to win is a better long term, then you have to have enough discipline to choose the best of the number and then walk away if you don't feel like you're getting it. You could still bet the Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning, but it's not going to be a sharp side at six and a half.

[Chad Millman]

All right. I got to tell you, I've had a lousy year betting, but so far I've got seven of eight division winners. I pick a surprise playoff team every year. It was the Washington Commanders. I pick a team that will double the Vegas win total. It was the Denver Broncos. I said this on the air today on TV on FS1. There's the old saying with kids, the days are long but the years fly by. And I feel like with the NFL week to week, it's crazy but over the course of a season it's very predictable. So I've had a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs in value. I'm always seeking value over favorites, but a lot of favorites have won is I'm trying to think I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Badly. And I but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said to you give me Your whiff and the one you'll plant the flag. And as you're really proud of this year.

[Unknown]

Oh, it's. It's interesting. The whiff started as the Panthers just because I loved him. I just thought this team, this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line, more than anything, I just thought they were going to be much, much better. It ended up being a whiff because they started off so badly and I lost so much on them early in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that they got better, and so I'm glad about that. To me, the one I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love Jim Harbaugh, and we didn't even talk about that game. I think he's a football savant, and I think that what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason why his teams turn around so quickly. No matter the talent level. He knows the rules. He knows strategy. He knows clock management so well. What he did at the end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a brilliant coach, was a masterclass, right? He takes the time out so they have to punt. The punt leads to the roughing, the returner, the personal foul. That leads to the free kick. That leads to the Chargers having momentum, and they win that game going away. That's good decision making. And you don't see that's. That's what you don't see from Jeff Ulbricht. It's what you're not seeing from Jared Mayo. Like, you see the difference there. So, to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because I thought they'd be good this year, and I. And I played it that way.

[Chad Millman]

By the way, I also tell you.

[Unknown]

That the bet, the bet that I always love the most, which I'm still in play for, I always do sort of a round robin on the teams that are at 12 to 1 or shorter to win the super bowl. And I will bet them in super bowl matchups because you can usually get those at, like, between 20 and 35 to 1. So you bet the Chiefs and the Lions, you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the Ravens and the Lions, you bet the Ravens and the Eagles, and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals, I'm alive with that if they make the playoffs. So I always like that bet and feel good now that the Chiefs and the Ravens, at least, are two of the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions. And I feel good that those matchups are still in play.

[Chad Millman]

Chargers -4 at New England. As long as we're talking about Harbaugh, I tend to like teams favored. J.K. dobbins should play. Gus Edwards out. Which side of you lean?

[Unknown]

Oh, I totally lean Chargers. And this is walking into a hornet's nest like in any other year. You mentioned the favorites, right? In any other year we're playing the Patriots here. We're playing a team that's out of it at home more than a field goal underdog. A team traveling that's fighting to make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the spread. In this scenario, the underdog is the right play. But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh's a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more aggressive decisions so they're scoring more points. I think that the fact that the most teams are starting field position at the 30 yard line is getting them closer to scoring in the other side of the field and making them more comfortable on 4th and 4 from the 40 going forward instead of kicking a field goal. And so I think that's one of the reasons why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score at a higher rate in bigger chunks and it's impacting betting. Like betters are not having a great year. You know, favorites have gone 71% straight up this year, just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since 2000. Thirteen teams getting over 60% at the spread. So we talk about fading the public, we want to be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting over 60% of the spread, covering 56% this year against the spread. Home underdogs 43% against the spread this year. That'll be the third least profitable season since 1990. So for people like you, people like me, I want to fade the public. I want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is. It's been a rough go of it, man.

[Chad Millman]

Chad Millman co host of the Favorites Good luck, buddy.

[Unknown]

Good luck to all of us.

[Colin Cowherd]

The volume.

[Dr. Josie]

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[Unknown]

Hey there, it's Scott Patterson from I.

[Chad Millman]

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[Doug Gottlieb]

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[Unknown]

That'S right, grab your coffee and get.

[Chad Millman]

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[Unknown]

The first time, Hulu has you covered.

[Chad Millman]

It's a show. It's a lifestyle. It's now streaming on Hulu.

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Chad Millman]

It's Levar Arrington here from up on Game and I need you to listen for a moment, all right? And get serious. The hate in this country is getting out of control. It's at an all time high. It's going to take all of us to stop it. I mean, think about it. We're all on the same team in this country, right? Let's take a break from hate so our team can regroup. We need to take a timeout against hate. Visit Stand up to all hate.org to help and join me in calling for a timeout against hate by following.

[Unknown]

Or.

[Chad Millman]

Posting the blue square emoji.

[Colin Cowherd]

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