← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Colin Cowherd Podcast - Chargers Beat Broncos, Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 16 + The College Football Playoff!
00:48:23
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- [00:00]
Colin Cowherd
What's on your list of popular game day foods? Tailgate, house party, game day gatherings, whatever. Include real flavor with the original Louisiana brand hot sauce. Sliders the beer cheese with that hit of Louisiana peppers. There's a rich food tradition in Louisiana bringing bold peppery flavor with just the right amount of heat. Pigs in a blanket Pigs not in a blanket Spinach Artichoke dip Artichoke Spinach dip Wings are wingier than ever with the original Louisiana brand wing sauce. Perfect for self appointed flavor experts. The original Louisiana brand Hot Sauce the game day flavor changer Flavor favors the bold. Available at a store near you as.
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- [01:07]
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- [01:13]
Prime Video
Thursday Night Football is on and it's only on Prime Video Breaking.
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The tackle touchdown this week.
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Prime Video
Keep the holiday celebration going as the Seattle Seahawks take on the Chicago Bears.
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Chad Millman
You're gonna love this.
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Prime Video
Coverage begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime member, sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Seahawks and Bears Thursday only on prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.
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It's inevitable.
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Colin Cowherd
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You know it.
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Colin Cowherd
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Colin Cowherd
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Colin Cowherd
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Colin Cowherd
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All right, time for an instant reaction. I gotta be honest. I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I poured one tonight just for this. 34, 27 Chargers win. Whoever won, I was happy. Although I did picked the Charger, so I'm a little happier. I've said this is when I started the Volume. One of the things I really, really like when I was in my 20s and 30s, I was probably just too selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing and I didn't. I was unmarried. And then you get older and older and you have kids and you get married. And over time, hopefully you have something in you that you want to see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in the NFL get the right coach. And Bo Nix could have gotten, you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he still, he is still learning. But in that first half, that was all on script those first two or three series. And Bonix was great because he's now got his mentor, he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the second half, it's not on script. That's about talent. And Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's just a more talented, experienced quarterback in the NFL. But both of these guys, these two teams last year were 13 and 21. I mean, think about that. And right now they're 18 and 12 and both are going to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if you land Giannis or Jokic. It takes years and years to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball. I mean, there's just some teams that can't afford it. Right? But in the NFL, Houston was a laughingstock. A bottom three team in the league. D'Amico, Ryan, C.J. stroud. Playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the end of the year, they had a team mutiny. They were one of the three worst teams in the league. This defense is all the same guys. Now. The offense got Joe alt and lad McConkey, no question, upgrades. But they're so beat up now, they're using a defensive tackle. Are the Chargers as one of their skill people? Matlock? Give me a break. They're using return guys and Quentin Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second half is. You know, Joel and lad McConkey have obviously helped, but the Chargers are so beat up on the back end of their defense and they're beat up at tight end. They didn't have Will Disley, you know, they're, they're, they don't have J.K. dobbins and, you know, it's. They're still a draft away. They're about six players away. They need to tight end another running back. Although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run of the game. But it just shows you why the NFL is king. You just either get a coach, get a quarterback, or Houston get both and you're a playoff team. And it's just. I've always called the NFL the League of Hope. But let's first start with the Chargers. They were. What did Al Michaels say tonight? I can't believe Al Michaels is this good at 80. The guy is such a talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick, and he and Herb street sound like they like each other. Al Michaels is so good at 80 years old, it's insane. He just signed for next year, by the way. But you know that he had said at one point, the Chargers were like, oh, for their last 11 in games decided by 3 points or less. They just don't know how to win. You know, they just don't know how to win. And they take this team. At the end of last year, it was a disaster. At the end of the year, could have been the worst team in the league. Same guys on defense and in Fact, half the defensive guys in the back end are hurt. Derwin James is healthy and carrying them, but they're all banged up and look at them. And it was such a testament to Harbaugh's coaching because, I mean, Harbaugh and Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse Minter and then Herbert in the second half, scrambling on a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left, throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching, smart adjustments, Herbert doing what he's doing. It's just. It makes me really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None of it is his fault. I just feel bad for the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've had really, you know, I've been very fortunate that I've landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's just so important. I tell my kids this all the time. It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody that can mentor you, cares about your well being, and, you know, in the job market, and they will make the best out of you. And I feel like that's what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert and that's what Sean Payton's doing to Bo Nixon. Both teams are a draft away. Right? Denver doesn't have a ton of depth. The Chargers need more weapons and a couple corners. But. And the end of the half sequence was so perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean, Jim Harbaugh's competing to the very end. And some people say he's weird, he's intense. Okay, it's the NFL. Belichick was intense. Dan Campbell's intense. Sean Payton's intense. So end of the first half, you know, they get that field goal and that's just Harbaugh battling to the end. So there's a big difference between going in down, what they would have been, and then the field goal. You got a real football game. And trailing eight at half feels a lot different than trailing by 12. And I mean, that kind of momentum into the locker room change, the energy and the juice. And I thought Denver had all the juice in the first half and the Chargers had all of the juice with that field goal going into intermission in the second half. And the Chargers outscored the Broncos 24, 6 once Harbaugh called that timeout. End of the first half and got the free kick before halftime, 24 to 6, just battling and fighting to the very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way.
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Colin Cowherd
Jesus.
- [09:56]
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And he again, he is working with return guys. A first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman, backup running back. Herbert in the second half, 11 of 15, two touchdowns, passer rating of 142.8. Jesus. I mean, it's just, it is just, I just, Isn't it crazy is that, you know, Sean Payton takes this shipwreck Denver. I think I like their gm, but it's a mess. They're in dead cap hell in the afc. And before the season started, Vegas had him at five and a half wins. And I thought they, and I said it was my favorite double win total. I thought they would double that. I thought they'd get in kind of the nine, eight, nine category. They're going to make the playoffs. They're in with nine wins now and they'll, they'll win one of their final three games. And I think they're capable of winning a playoff game. I don't think Denver's capable of winning two or three, but I think they're capable of winning a playoff game. I feel the same way about the Chargers. They kind of have to win one way. You know, they've got to have Herbert be superman. They've got to have everybody healthy, their pitch. Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh, Denver and the Chargers, those are one playoff win teams. Herbert finishes the night about, what is it? 23 of 31, 300 yards. It is, it's just, you know, remember a couple years ago and the media, you know, the media went through a weird thing where it was very sensitive. And I remember about three or four years ago and the media was just saying, oh, these Thursday night games, they're unfair to players. Oh, give me a break. So I called players, I talked to coaches and the players I talked to are like, we love Thursday night games. Usually it's a division rival so you don't have to do a ton of film study. Like tonight you're playing somebody you know and it's usually a division game, so the travel isn't too long. It's a two hour flight somewhere and you don't hit during that week and then you get almost a second bye week. And the media was freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had some sensational Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought it would be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so crisp in the first half. Now in the second half, Denver, I mean, let's face it, they aided the Chargers on that long drive. They had two, a couple guys off sides. That was a, that was a huge break. There were two big moments in the game for me, that the end of the halftime kick and then Denver had a series of penalties as the Chargers got that big drive, which eventually ended up with Herbert making that throw for a touchdown in the end zone. But they have three or four defensive penalties and that really gave them. They really seized momentum. And you could hear the crowd a little bit getting into it and God, that was just fun. Hold on, my phone's ringing. It's probably Justin Herbert. I'm sorry to be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Chad Millman's coming on for Sharper Square. We're going to do some college games this week because I think there's a couple of. I have two college games I'm betting that I love. So let's get the Chad Millman Sharper Square. By the way, I must have started a firestorm, but I did a rant earlier this week on FS1. I think it was Monday or Tuesday about the NBA and the ratings and why they're down. And it just kind of created multiple opinions and commentaries by multiple commentators. And I don't know if I was. I know the ratings came out and there was a report that were way down and I did about a 5 minute rant on it. And it. Maybe I was just one of a bunch of people that started talking about it, but I, I know the, the rant I did got a couple million. I don't want. Let me just start over again. Okay? So a big topic of conversation before I get to Chad Millman has been the NBA ratings this week. And I saw JJ Redick said tonight, you know, the league needs to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited. Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right, the consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough. I mean, good. Hell, Adam Silver two years ago said, our players are miserable. Twitter is making them miserable. Can you imagine a football player saying that? Give me a break. The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited. It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice who Talked about the three point shooting? LeBron James was asked about the All Star Game changes and he dropped an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams are shooting way too many threes. LeBron James said that a guy that loves the game. Joe Mazzulla, the coach of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings. And he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either. So that's the championship coach and the best player in the last 20 years criticizing the league from a position of power, not seeking attention. In fact, LeBron didn't want to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want to get too into it. So the people that are criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling, change the menu. Rob Manfred did and Adam Silver needs to. For the record, when you make changes to your menu, to your business, the consumer always responds. Always. I mean, baseball was in a 15 year drought. Rob Manfred made two changes. The ratings went up the last two years. This year they went through the roof during the postseason. People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA. I tried watching the championship, NBA Cup. Oklahoma City was 5 of 32 from threes. It was awful. It was unwatchable. It was dreck. So, you know, nobody's against the NBA. People that criticize it watch it. I watch it all the time. I don't really get into it until the football season's done. But, you know, by February, you know, you have the two weeks before the Super Bowl, I start watching 30 minutes a night, 40 minutes a night. So I thought it was interesting that Joe Missoula and LeBron James both came out and were critical aesthetically of the current product. It's not a good watch. And when something falls off the cliff in two years, three years, gotta look in the mirror. It's not about celebrating, it's about auditing. That's something baseball did recently and something the NFL does annually. NFL is king for a lot of reasons. One of the reasons, the ability to self police, self monitor and course correct. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football, hockey, action at DraftKings sportsbook. It's the season of giving.
- [17:07]
Colin Cowherd
So we're being gifted.
- [17:08]
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College football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey too. Almost 24,7. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day. So many opportunities to place your first bet. Now, if you're going to bet for the first time, just make it simple. Pick a team. To win any team, go to DraftKings Sportsbook. They have an app. Download it. Ninety seconds. Here's the gift for all new customers. Bet five bucks. Just five bucks. If your bet wins, you get $150 in bonus bets. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. The code is Colin C O L I N New customers. One hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets if you bet five bucks and it wins. Happy holidays from DraftKings. Crown is yours.
- [17:44]
Colin Cowherd
Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text hopeny467-369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort in Kansas, 21 and over. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario, bet must win to receive Reward. Bonus bets expire 1 after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKNG co B Ball. What's on your list of popular game day foods? Probably multiple dishes with the bold flavor of the original Louisiana brand hot sauce. You can't beat the original with a 90 year history of great taste and quality. Tailgate, house party, game day gatherings, whatever. Include real flavor sliders with the original Louisiana brand hot sauce. The beer cheese with that hit of Louisiana peppers. There has to be original Louisiana brand hot sauce on your game day food list. It's the perfect everyday hot sauce that complements every meal. There's a rich food tradition in Louisiana bringing bold peppery flavor with just the right amount of heat. Pigs in a blanket. Pig's not in a blanket. Spinach Artichoke dip Artichoke Spinach dip. Wings are wingier than ever with the original Louisiana brand wing sauce. Perfect for self appointed flavor experts. The original Louisiana brand hot sauce, the game day flavor changer flavor favors the bold. Available at a store near you. Virgin Voyages is the adults only destination for anybody seeking restorative, luxurious and award winning vacations at sea. Always included luxury over a thousand bucks in values included in every sailing and everything they offer menus created by Michelin star chefs to their cabins designed by top international firms is award winning. Relax, Restore. Revive. Your cabin was meticulously designed to give you a gorgeous place to feel renewed. Swing into much deserved me time on your private terrace in your hand woven virgin red hammock as you gaze at the glittering sea views. Exclusively adult kid free cruises. They cater our food, entertainment and activities to adult tastes. Explore the Caribbean this winter on one of their week long experiences. Epic. Never a dull moment on virgin voyages sailing all year long. Book now@virginvoyages.com or contact your travel advisor.
- [20:32]
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- [20:57]
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- [21:02]
Adnan Virk
What'S up everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast and the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Virkin Demers.
- [21:10]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst and and boy oh boy, does Daddy have a lot to say.
- [21:19]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [21:27]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're gonna have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what? Tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [21:38]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon gonna find out we're not just hockey talk, we're into all kinds of random stuff in this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [21:47]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts Virky.
- [21:50]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:03]
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- [22:48]
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All right, time for Sharper Square. My buddy Chad Millman, co host of the favorites all odds provided by DraftKings. You know, listen the college football games this weekend won't get the NFL numbers because nothing in the world does. But there's some heaters and we'll get to that in about 15 minutes. There's some fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry it doesn't make any sense because he's been so good, but if Ryan Day loses at home to Tennessee, it's going to be a shitstorm in Columbus. It's going to be crazy. So we'll get to that in 15 minutes.
- [23:15]
Colin Cowherd
Let's do Sharper Square. I've had a terrible year.
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I've had my worst year ever doing this and I don't really know. I don't want to out think the room. I'm about 55% every year. I'm not a pro gambler but I think I'm, you know, in the ballpark. I've been terrible this year and I can't, you know, I think a lot.
- [23:28]
Colin Cowherd
Of it is.
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I've always liked value and underdogs and it just week to week. Some weeks I go dogs favorites win, some week I go favorites. So I'm just going to give you my thought on this. The Chiefs are now three and a half point favorites. It's more stay away now. But when it was two and a half even with Carson Wentz potentially playing. I love Kansas City. I think Carson Wentz for a week is fine for a season. You can't trust his health. So I would imagine at three and a half the sharps like the Texans.
- [24:04]
Colin Cowherd
But if so, I liked it 2.
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1/2 and 3 Kansas City. Now if I say I like Kansas City, is it square?
- [24:12]
Chad Millman
Totally square. Yeah. The wise guys are playing the three and a half because up until last weekend anytime you're betting on Patrick Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making a negative ROI bet. He just has not won as a favorite of more than three last weekend. Obviously he did. They were four and a half point favorites. They covered. But even in that game you saw the pressure getting to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his 30 yard line. So killing two drives. Plus they had three other turnovers including to open the game. You look at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right? And so that game was closer statistically than you would imagine by the score itself. So there is going to be a sentiment. You take the Texans at plus three and a half at two and a half. A hundred percent People were still taking the Chiefs. That's why the number got all the way up to three and a half.
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Yeah. So a prime example. The Steelers get beat and pretty soundly by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game Is they had 80 yards in the first half and only trailed 17:13 in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble, we got ourselves a football game.
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Chad Millman
Yes.
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To give the Steelers six and a half the ra. You know what the Ravens are? They got. They're the Mike Tyson. They crush. They're bullies. First round knockouts against bad teams, you push them back, you make them think. Baltimore can get beat by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin is a six and a half point underdog. So I. This, to me, is the steal of the week. Pittsburgh plus six and a half in Baltimore. Sharper square.
- [26:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah, wise guys love this bet. And it's almost become a blind bet in this series. Wise guys like Mike Tomlin as an underdog anyways. And you're right, that game, Najee Harris, the Steelers were outplayed and in the middle of the third quarter, fumble the ball. If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the 16 yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to make it a 2016 game. Or they're scoring a touchdown to make it 20. 20 changes the game. Right. Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin, rah rah. Spots Any way you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog is the best coach in a generation. Against the spread, he is best coach in a generation. Winning straight up as an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog of three or more versus the Ravens, he is 6, 0 straight up, 6 and O against the spread, he's 13, 2 and 2 against spread versus Harbaugh when the line in this series is three or more points the past 20 years. So it's the Harbaugh Tomlin reign. The underdog is 23, 4 and 3 against the spread since 2015. Underdog 16 into 16, 2 and 1 against the spread. So like, yeah, that there are times where you're nervous about playing into these trends and we talked about this on the show last week. Betting the Steelers fading, the Chiefs. Those were times we were nervous. Like it happened six times out of ten. This time it's happening eight times out of ten. So, yeah, you're playing the Steelers.
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I like the 49ers plus one at the Dolphins. I think one of the things that's become pretty clear with the Dolphins is if they're not playing in oppressive humidity at home. They get pushed around by more physical teams. I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league. And, you know, as I watch them against Houston, it's just bubble screens. That's all they do. Tua is now throwing 40 times a game. That's way too much for two of the teams like the packers and the Eagles have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw 24 times a game. I think the 49ers, I think it comes down to pride for Brock Purdy, it comes down to a contract. I like the 49ers here.
- [28:25]
Chad Millman
Sharper square, sharpish, like the line opened one and a half. It's been bet down obviously from one and a half to one for a minute. Very hot minute. The Niners were favorites and then it sort of bounced back a little bit. But that money that's moving it is professional money in favor of the Niners. Not a huge sort of feeling on that game. They just sort of think that the Niners are probably a more physical team. Are they getting more healthy? They don't believe in the Dolphins. Is the bigger component of their thinking.
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Okay. The Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor. I mean, it was a blowout. They go home now and have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans are. They have benchwell Levis. I was texting a GM this week and I said, I think if you gave Sam Darnold to the Colts to have the Viking season. I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially in Denver. I mean, it was a mismatch. Three picks for Bo Nix. I think Indy. I don't care what the line is. I think they're going to come back. I think they're. I think Chris Ballard's job's in the line. Anthony Richardson's career's on the line. Shane Steichen with that trick play that got a pick six. I think Indy is inflamed and I think they blow the Titans out Sharper square.
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Chad Millman
So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was at four and a half even when Will Levis was possibly the quarterback. It's been bet down immediately with Mason Rudolph as the quarterback. The wise guys have liked the Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson as a favorite. Like, if you want to talk about comps, the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage right now, Tim Tebow and Akili Smith in the past 25 years. This season will go down as one of the worst in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing. And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched, he came back and he looked like he was a little bit more in control. They were putting him in better positions. Key was just awful against the Broncos. They were winning that game in spite of him. And look like I was on the Colts last week. Jonathan Taylor dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the Steelers last week, Najee Harris dropping that ball and this was all happening. If you're watching red zone, this is like boom, boom, boom. It was just like gut punch after gut punch after gut punch as a better. But you felt like. And I felt like Colts had no chance to get back into that game after they gave up the lead because Anthony Richardson can't win you a game. So they're going to have to dominate on the ground in order to cover this three and a half. And like at the end of the day you got to win by four points. That's a relatively big number of what should be a run heavy game in which the clock is running a lot. So I think the wise guys are still liking Tennessee in the hook.
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Part of me says I should love the Bears at home plus six and a half against Detroit. Jared Goff outside bad weather. I defended Caleb Williams this week. He has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray, more passing yards than Jalen Hurts and hasn't had an interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at the record, you would think he's awful and it's like, no, actually, all things considered, now that he's with the third coach at home, Detroit. Defensively, I mean, it's bad. It is. I mean eight, nine yards a chunk. I think I like Chicago at home plus six and a half. Sharper square.
- [32:43]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when it was at seven and a half and seven and this is 100% a number play. You're not going to find anyone taking it at six and a half if you're taking it six and a half. We've talked about this. You're just not getting the best of the number. And long term that's a bad way to try to win games. You might win once in a while, but long term you want to be on the right side of the number. So the wise guys took the seven and a half. They took the seven. I think this is a really tricky game at six and a half is a home dog in the division. Of course I want to be on the Bears. I can't find a way to get there. I'm not saying I'm going to bet Detroit, but there's two schools of thought on Jared Goff. Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors is unbeatable. Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole. But he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends to not when he is outside. And he is a covering machine. Over the past five years, I look at this in a different way. Sure, their defense is beat up, but all they have to do is hand the ball to Jameer Gibbs because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious, like putrid. They are giving up 100 yards every single game, no matter who they play. Saw it again last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit is going to come out in a bad mood, try to prove that they're still the class of the nfc. Run the ball down the Bear's throat and it doesn't really matter what Caleb Williams does or what the weather is. They might dominate this game. So I can't, I can't tell you at six and a half, you're making a good call.
- [34:30]
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Okay, Rams is now at only minus three. I would take them against the Jets. It was three and a half. I think the jets played the last two weeks. Devonte Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the Rams are playing for the playoffs and the jets are playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett Wilson wanting a trade, the story about Woody Johnson's kids, this has been a messy weak for the Jets. I can gladly swallow the three for a much better team and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three, Sharper square.
- [35:11]
Chad Millman
I mean, what. Look, wise guys have been on the jets all week. The wise guys have been on the jets for much of the year. And much to their dismay, Jeff Ulbricht, the coach, seems to find ways to play them out of wins and covers and then make the stupidest mistakes. That actually leads them into a cover that they never should have covered. Right last week. He's going for the touchdown with a minute left. When the Jags have two timeouts, they end up covering the three point spread, winning by six when really he should have kneeled down and left no time and kicked a field goal week before making bad decisions at the end of the game, they end up losing the game to the Dolphins and not even covering the three point spread because they lose by six in overtime. So he's a menace when it comes to clock management and he's a menace for betters. But the wise guys do love the jets right now. Aaron Rodgers has been playing significantly better the past two weeks. You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're going to feel better. And now he's got to come back and play in the cold in New Jersey. But there is something about the Rams and the fact that they have to go into the cold too. Stafford does not perform as well then. And also this is a team you get late in the year. You get teams that are what I like to call good ish, right 50 to 60% in terms of winning percentage and they're playing bad teams on the road. That is a recipe for disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying they're going to lose, but those games tend to be closer. So the wise guys are definitely back in the jets this week.
- [36:51]
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Okay, I'm not prone to do this, But Green Bay -14 against the Saints just screams take the Packers. I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has been a year of the favorites. I think the most underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like a dead franchise. I think Green Bay still has a chance. They really believe it. I think they're a better team this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like 14 point favorites, but they're covering and favorites are covering and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is one of the few places where home field is still three to three and a half points sharper square.
- [37:49]
Chad Millman
Well look, you're never going to get sharp confirmation on a 14 point favorite. There are two 14 point favorites this week. The packers over the Saints, the Bills over the Patriots. There's been more of a conversation around the bills as 14 point favorites. That line actually ticked up to 14 and a half and that was very much professionals betting on the bills at 14. Then it came down then, then some professionals. Not a, not a whole lot of them, but a couple of them were like, yeah, that's like half a point too far. The packers like, sure there's nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints, but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers. Everything you just said, everyone agrees with. It's why actually the wise Guys were on the packers last week against the Seahawks.
- [38:46]
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That was my favorite bet of the week. Yeah.
- [38:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah, mine too. It's the only bet I won last week. And so they were on him at two and a half. That was a great spot for the Packers. Right. They, they had just lost a really hard game to the Lions and I think that game gave them the confidence that you just talked about. You saw the mastery with which lafor calls a game. Jordan Love has been much more cautious with the ball, hasn't been throwing interceptions. I think the packers believe they are in the same class as the Vikings and the Lions and the Eagles. And I'd be hard pressed to disagree. I think it's harder to win as two touchdown favorites against a Saints team that, like, from a, from a, from a wise guy perspective, they just don't like this game as much as they would like the Bills and the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting to you.
- [39:42]
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Yeah, please.
- [39:44]
Chad Millman
So this is the win Josh Allen, the MVP game. Right. There's talk this week because LaMar Jackson threw five touchdowns against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP. And you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways, right. They are a team that has a winning record as big favorites in these games in the division, outside the division at home. They tend, they don't play down to the level of their competition. Their offense can do whatever it wants against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early, their record against the spread, it's like 7 and 21 the past two years, like they are a terrible team. They cannot recover. So if the Bills get out too late early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot. The one concern is, you know, the, the Bill secondary has a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about the Patriots offense. They got Drake May, who's slinging it and trying his best, but right now, Gerard Mayo was throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense. There's just a lot of turmoil there. So the wise guys, if they're betting a big favorite, they're more inclined to bet the Bills than the Packers.
- [41:10]
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- [41:22]
Colin Cowherd
Whether you're traveling to watch your favorite.
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Colin Cowherd
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Adnan Virk
What'S up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from IHEART Podcast and the National Hockey league week. It's NHL unscripted with Perkin Demers hey.
- [44:32]
Jason Demers
I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst and boy, oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [44:40]
Adnan Virk
I love you. By the way. On NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [44:48]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're gonna have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [44:59]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [45:08]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkie.
- [45:11]
Adnan Virk
That shirt of Kazarakis. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [45:24]
Prime Video
Jon Stewart is back in the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. The Daily show podcast has everything you need to stay on top of today's news and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports, and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show Ears edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [46:08]
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All right, I want to talk some college football now because I think I, I, I, I do think Indiana, Notre Dame and a lot of its weather. I think it's going to be pretty close. I think Notre Dame's a great run team. Indiana is a kind of a peculiar, unique run defense. I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know, competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on a, on a nice day to play football is better. Significantly, Notre Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent and I also think Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They just play down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling and I think Indiana is going to so I really like Indiana +7. How do the wise guys view it?
- [46:58]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, the numbers come down because wise guys are betting Indiana and Indiana's look been a covering machine this year. Yes, obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge. They also didn't cover against Michigan. But that was at a time when Michigan was starting to get better. And the next week they went on and they beat Ohio State. So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State, Indiana had some, some bad plays and they were outclassed. And you could see the talent difference. I'm with you. The wise guys are with you in the way Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame and the time. And look, you can't help but listen to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game and he's got his players playing this game with a huge chip on their shoulder. And we've talked about this. One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why it was able to achieve when other teams that are leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve is because they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't bring in five star recruits who are going to be there for a year and go to the NFL. They bought in guys who are just really good at college football. And this is a great college football game. And there is a nuanced difference when I say college football game here. That's the style of game this is going to be. It's going to be physical. It's going to be about execution. It's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes, but the people who do their jobs the best. So I love this game for Indiana.
- [48:37]
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I like the under on Clemson. Texas mostly not because Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm going to take Texas minus 12. I really feel it has a chance to be 30 to 10. I think the Texas defense is sensational and I think the Clemson offense, it's almost like that SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in their bowl games. I like the under but I'm going to take Texas minus 12. I think this, remember Clemson doesn't go to the transfer portal. They have holes. Texas out recruits him and goes to the transfer portal. And also Texas's offense over the last three weeks. I don't think they'll pause if Quinn Ewer struggles. I think they'll go to Arch Manning. I don't think they'll pause going forward. I like Texas to roll here, sharper, square, totally sharp.
- [49:34]
Chad Millman
Like if you look in, I'm looking in the action app right now, just checking it out. And you can see in the app you can see the betting tickets and you can see the money percentages on each side and betting tickets is usually an indication of the public. That's the squares who are betting $10, $20. And there's a lot of volume of tickets. Tickets money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the tickets right now are on Clemson. The money is on Texas. And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree with you, that defense they have is just fierce. Like they did a job on Georgia and if Texas offense could execute a little bit better, then they wouldn't. We wouldn't be having this conversation about who's the sec, who is the SEC champ. It would have been Texas. So like they, they. That defense is so freaking good. And it's a veteran defense. Again, we're talking about like guys who've been playing college football for a while and I think that's an advantage here.
- [50:43]
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So the game I'm going to ask you to handicap, I don't get the line. So the line is telling me Ohio State's going to win because it hasn't moved much. So Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's offensive line, meaning Ohio State's going to have to throw. And it may only be 15 degrees, but this line is telling me that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State is pissed and Ryan Day's jobs on the line and Josh Hyples isn't and it's in Columbus and it is a warm weather SEC team. So the line is telling me that Ohio State's going to win this comfortably. That's what it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this. I mean, Tennessee's the best rushing team in the sec. Going into cold weather, it just screams to you, low scoring, take the points. But the line's not moving. And that tells me the Sharps like Ohio State. Do they?
- [51:42]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, it's. It's settled in where it's at.
- [51:46]
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Right.
- [51:46]
Chad Millman
And that is because it's been, it's kind of the, the advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these situations that you just talked about. And there is some feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan day. It's been seven and a half almost since it opened. It was at six and a half for about 30 seconds. Wise guys took the six and a half. They bet Tennessee at six and a half. Right. But there was so much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that it moved up. So Ryan Day is in a spot and we've talked about this. There was a story in the Wall Street Journal today about, about Ohio State fans, people calling in to local radio about Max Crosby, who, you know, the Lions, the Raiders defensive lineman who's out for the year. On his podcast, he's a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how he wants the team to lose so they get rid of Ryan Day. That is a weird thing to be talking about when you've got a coach who has won as much as he has. But I think you and I agree, every game for him is going to be a must win game. And unless they win the championship or they get there and they are so dominant and he puts himself in a position, even if they lose, it's a way to rebuild the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program and he hasn't beaten them and they haven't gotten over it.
- [53:23]
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You know, I think sometimes one of the things I love about sports is when there's cultural changes, I like to predict what they are. I love the theories and my systems on like, what's changing. So something's happening in college football and college football fans don't yet know it. So in the NFL, it's almost understood that you got to give a staff a couple of years, right? Like there's just, it's just really hard. The margins are thin. Well, I think the Ohio states and the Georges and the Texas fans, you know, you've always been able to line up and just beat teams. And one of the reasons is over a long season is your backups were as good as their starters. And football's regulated the levels of violence. So there's college and pro, there's injuries. But the transfer portal at NIL has eliminated depth at the blue bloods. Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when you do suffer injuries and the season is now longer than ever, your backups are Purdue starters. That's all they are. And so these Ohio states and these big Notre Dame, these big traditional powers, as the season goes on, I mean, look at, look at our 12 team playoff. Arizona State's in it, SMU's in it, Boise State's in it, like, and these are live dogs. And so I don't think quite college football fans understand not only are players getting paid that it looks more like pro football, but your backups stink. Just like pro football. Detroit's defense now has six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it was excellent. And so what, and what, what creates that? The salary cap. You have bad backups in the NFL. Nobody has depth in the NFL. You either like Philadelphia's got great frontline starters, A.J. brown's out. It's not the same offense. Right. Saquon Barkley's out. It's not the same offense. We've always understood that in pro football. You need your starters. And when you get injury plagued Buffalo, Detroit's defense, you're like, what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't have good college. That was never the point. Top 10 teams just had better backups. I mean, 85 scholarships allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're Ohio State now, they have two. One gets hurt, you move a guard to left tackle, their whole line stinks. It's Iowa at best.
- [55:47]
Chad Millman
So you're, you're totally right. That's an on the field problem. But culturally for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football, it's always been Michigan, Ohio State, rivalry weekend, you know, Alabama, Tennessee or Alabama, Auburn, you know, these games, they had so much meaning because there was a lot on the line. You couldn't lose that game. I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what a lot of schools will struggle with in the future is you focus so much on that one rivalry game and that's all you care about. Because college football has always been so provincial. Now it's a, it's a national game. The SEC is spread out all over. The Big Ten is literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really kind of matter. And so the provincial local rivalries that college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built their self worth on, have built their fandom on, they need to move on from those really meeting anything because they kind of don't. If Iowa State loses to Michigan for the next 10 years, but they win the national title in five of those years, is that going to be better or worse? As a fan? Like, they need to come to grips with a new reality of what these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture. Because they used to mean everything. It wasn't just about beating Michigan, it was about beating Michigan and what it meant for winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose bowl or what it meant for winning the Big Ten and then being in the College Football Playoff or winning the BCS and getting a better rating, those things don't matter anymore. So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just going to diminish the value of those games for fans. My kid, he's going to be in college next year. He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State. Wherever he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools going to mean as much to him 20 years from now as they do to me and my friends who also went to Indiana? Probably not.
- [58:04]
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Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you would label your favorite?
- [58:11]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I middled Kansas City, so I, I bet Kansas City plus two and a half on Sunday night and then.
- [58:18]
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Minus two and a half you mean?
- [58:20]
Chad Millman
No, it was plus two and a half like on Monday morning. I'm sorry. When the news about what was happening with Mahomes was still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a half point underdogs. So I bet him two and a half. And then when it became clear that he was going to be playing, this was yesterday afternoon, the game got up to three and a half. I bet the Texans at plus three and a half. So the majority of my money is trying to get that middle right. But I also bet the jets three and a half. That's one that I like. I really like the Steelers at six and a half. So if the, if I like, I'll put in my five favorite picks. The Steelers will be in there. The jets will definitely be in there. Dallas I bet at four and a half. I like Dallas a lot. Against Tampa. I think there's a lot of inflation this week and I think that's one of the bigger games where Dallas has been playing better like the last three weeks, last four weeks. That Cincinnati game kind of looks like a fluke, right? They lost that game. They've won the three other games. Micah Parsons has seven and a half sacks since he's back. Duron Bland is back in the secondary. That defense is getting a lot better. Cooper Rush at home controlled environment. Tampa Bay just put up 40 on the Chargers that inflated that line a little bit. So Dallas is another one that I'm, I'm paying attention to.
- [59:47]
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Chad Millman, Sharper Square. I love it, buddy.
- [59:50]
Chad Millman
Great to chat with you, buddy.
- [59:54]
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The volume.
- [59:57]
Colin Cowherd
What's on your list of popular game day foods? Tailgate, house party, game day gatherings, whatever. Include real flavor with the original Louisiana brand hot sauce. Sliders. The beer cheese with that hit of Louisiana peppers. There's a rich food tradition in Louisiana bringing bold peppery flavor with just the right amount of heat. Pigs in a blanket. Pigs not in a blanket. Spinach artichoke dip. Artichoke spinach dip. Wings are wingier than ever with the original Louisiana brand wing sauce. Perfect for self appointed flavor experts. The original Louisiana brand hot sauce. The game day flavor changer. Flavor Favors the Bold, available at a store near you.
- [60:40]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Verkin Demers.
- [60:45]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [60:51]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together, chat with the sport that we love.
- [60:55]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just gonna be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies. We're talking tv. Food. Food. And Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.
- [61:05]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virgin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [61:13]
Prime Video
Catch Jon Stewart back in action on the Daily show and in your ears with the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. From his hilarious satirical takes on today's politics and entertainment to the unique voices of correspondents and contributors, it's your perfect companion to stay on top of what's happening now. Plus, you'll get special content just for podcast listeners, like in depth interviews and a roundup of the week's top headlines. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.