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Josh Pate
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Colin Cowherd
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Josh Pate
So you're telling me that the AI that's meant to make everyone's job easier to manage just adds more to manage? On top of the thousands of apps the IT department already manages? Funny how that works. Any business can add AI. IBM helps you scale and manage AI to change how you do business. Let's create Smile to Business IBM. Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line. But first, There the last one. Enjoy a Coca Cola for a pause that refreshes. And Doug, here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual.
Colin Cowherd
Fascinating.
Josh Pate
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Josh Pate
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Colin Cowherd
This episode is brought to you by Netflix. Netflix is basically Santa this year. Two NFL games on Christmas Day streaming live at 1 Eastern Cowboys Commanders. Then at 4:30, you've got the Lions struggling against the Vikings. That's Midwest football playoff stakes. Two teams battling it out for the number one seed last year must win for Detroit. Watching holiday football is a tradition the whole family can enjoy. Open some Gifts, grab some food, settle in and watch NFL Live on Netflix Christmas day starting at 1pm Eastern Time. He's the host of the Josh Pates College football show. You see him everywhere now. He is ubiquitous with the sport and we love that he is on a porch somewhere. Let me guess, don't tell me. Let me look at the backdrop here. I'm going to say this is 22 miles from Athens, Georgia.
Josh Pate
This is probably about 220 miles from Athens, Georgia. But those are Georgia pines. You spotted the Georgia pines and I'm proud of you for it because you're a long way from here.
Colin Cowherd
I've been around, so I identify places with trees. I used to watch. Remember the show Cops?
Josh Pate
Yeah.
Colin Cowherd
I would be like, oh, that's Tacoma, Washington. That's my neck of the woods. There's a pine. I would literally watch that show. And if you turned into it mid show, you're like, oh, that's Michigan. Yeah, I don't know. That's Arizona. That's a palm tree.
Josh Pate
I can tell there's another car chase through Appalachia. Those aren't Rocky Mountains. Yeah, that's Boone, North Carolina. Yet again.
Colin Cowherd
I'm glad I'm not the only one that watched that show. So I said this the other day. I defended the 12 team college football Playoff. I said, listen, I went and looked March Madness, there's a lot of mythology with it. I love it, we all love it. But everybody always talks about the first weekend. They're, oh, it's magical. Oh, there's upsets everywhere. Twenty of the 32 games last year in the, in the first round were abject blowouts. The average difference, the average margin of victory was 17 points. And we understand though the tournament is large, 68. There's about 10 teams with no chance to win a game and another six that could win a game. But it would have to be a favorite. Literally got into foul trouble. So I'm okay with two teams of the 12. Probably not ideal because I do think the regular season gets diminished a little BIT with a 12 team playoff. I don't want to see Texas with three losses and two other games they could have lost. I don't need to see them. I know what they are and they're not Georgia, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon. So my take is in college sports. It could be a hockey tournament. It could be women's lacrosse if you do a large playoff. And in football 12, eventually 14 is pretty big. We're going to have a couple of teams that are outmatched and it's okay. We love march madness. There's 16 teams that really are over their skis, but they'll be one of them that knocks somebody off and it's feel good. Is that a bad take?
Josh Pate
No, it's actually refreshing because your viewpoint on this is actually my viewpoint. So I don't get to argue from someone who shares my viewpoint on this very often. Normally it's James Madison got blown out. That's proof they didn't belong in the playoff. Well, hey, even if I'm going to make the argument, Colin, even if I'm going to be an anti G5 guy, even if I don't believe they should be in the playoff, and it shouldn't be because of the projected margin of defeat, because you leave yourself just a wide open, gaping hole in your argument. And that is, what if they play a close game? Was that evidence that they belonged in or someone could come back at you. It's a bad faith argument, but someone could come back at you and say, well, Tennessee got blown out by Ohio State last year or any number of blowouts are going to happen every year. Is that proof that they shouldn't have been in my stance? If I'm going to, if I'm going to make an anti G5 stance, it should only be about this. It should sound something like, I believe there's a minimum baseline strength of schedule you should have to play in a given season to warrant consideration, and it's impossible for them to meet it. It's not even their fault. They could win every game by a hundred. I got like power ratings I'll do sometimes. And I think JMU played, I think one of my top 50. That was Louisville. They lost by two touchdowns and then their next toughest opponent was Old Dominion. So if you want to make that argument, okay, I'm actually with you and I'll take it a step further. I've never, as much as I love college football, I immerse myself in it all year. It is my great, like, passion outside of living itself. I have never really cared all that much about the playoff. The playoff's always been a cherry on top of the main event, which to me is the regular season. So I've never allowed myself to get worked up to the degree of 10 or 11 like some people do. You'll never get me past a six and a half on this stuff in terms of outrage. And so the other part about it is, you mentioned March Madness and how big it is, how big the NCAA tournament is. Well, the bigger the tournament, the larger the sample size of anecdotal arguments you're going to have because you're going to be able to draw on dozens and dozens and dozens of examples over the years in football. We'll probably get there. So I'm sure if we do this long enough, two lanes randomly going to be at Ole Miss or it's going to be a dog bite and that'll, that'll be viewed as forever evidence. It's not evidence of anything.
Colin Cowherd
You know, I look at it this way, Josh, when, when. And I love Nick Saban, but when he says, you know, it's. They're a triple A baseball team in the World Series, I would say that's interesting because you played three of those AAA baseball teams every year at Alabama and you got on the phone and scheduled them. So they may not be worthy late, but they were certainly worthy two weeks before you played lsu. So let's not pretend these people don't have a purpose. They give you home games and all these schools want minimum eight home games. So if you're willing to play them in October, don't throw a tizzy fit. If you play them in. If they go 12 and oh and you play them in December, I would argue this the danger. And Saban's talked about this, he talked about this years ago when they didn't they lose to Louisiana, Monroe his first year I think at like Alabama or they played Georgia Southern one year and couldn't stop them. And you will get these smaller schools that have a quirky office or like a, a sixth round NFL quarterback and they go five wide and you're like holy sh. We, we don't really pray. I remember when Air Force years ago played Tennessee and Tennessee was like this is a terrible time for us to play the wishbone. We can't even practice again. So I always think there, listen, Boise State, meet Oklahoma. That's very rare, but I think there's space for the occasional fun blowout.
Josh Pate
You just mentioned a game. All right, that, that game, that Air Force Tennessee game was in the late 2000s. I remember vividly. I mean it was when I first discovered a dude named Tony here in Columbus. Georgia was the local bookie back then. I don't know where Tony is now, but he let me have a $500 account. You guys did teaser material for your best bets of the year. You did college football games of the year. Air. Well, I still remember the nomenclature. You use Air Force and their quirky offense is going to go into Tennessee, not beat them, but give them nightmares. You Your boy here put an uncomfortable amount of money, which for me was $45 at the time on Air Force, plus the points. I remember the game vividly because Tennessee got pushed to the limit, scared to death, and won the game. And I'm thinking, Colin Cowherd, dude actually knows something about college football.
Colin Cowherd
No, I talked to coaches through the years and they're like, man, if you're going to, if you're going to play a small school, don't throw wishbone up stuff in there. Like you can't even. He's like, we don't even have the play. We have to use a wide receiver. And then he has to pretend he's a quarterback for two days of practice. It's like that. It's a nonsense. Here's my other take, the usc, Notre Dame thing. And, and, and this is why. So in March, I read an article by Pete Tamil, New York Times, college football guy, smart guy, and he mentioned in the article, I think it was March or April, but I remember reading it, and it said, basically, Notre Dame is negotiated with a college football playoff, that if there's 12 or 14 teams, if they're ranked 12th, they're automatically in. And I remember bringing this to somebody's attention at usc. And I'd gone, usc people are all over Manhattan Beach. And I talked to somebody in the athletic department. I'm like, timeout. I said, you guys may want to revisit this. I said, you're in the Big Ten. And the Big Ten was always better than the Pac 12, but now it's been fortified with Oregon, Washington, USC and your rival. This is the same time Texas, Oklahoma are going to the sec. And I said, and they play in the weakest conference. And because they're not a full member, they can marginalize the schedule. They can have a bye in front of you every time they play you. They could just have a buy and say, okay, we'll play Rice buy. So hide the playbook buy. Here comes usc. I'm like, I don't have a problem with you playing them, but you may want to move it to week zero like you. And so, you know, I don't. USC didn't need me to say that. They obviously thought about it. But my take is, and I use this today, Josh on the show, I said, consider schedules, class loads. I said, usc this year they're going to go to, at Penn State, at Indiana, they have Ohio State, Oregon, Washington. And I said, that's like, you know, that's like a little trigonometry, a pre Calculus. There's a physics in there. Notre Dame schedule next year is so egregiously bad.
Josh Pate
It's two plus two is four, man. It's A, B, C, D. Yeah, it.
Colin Cowherd
Is shop class and gym class. So I said, all USC said was, listen, man, we got some midterms in October. We'll play, but we're not going to. In between our trigonometry and chemistry midterms. We're not going to play there. We need a little space. And Notre Dame said, no, we're not going to do that. So my take was if you're not a committed member of a conference and you're desperate for games, then you got to wiggle a little bit for an SEC or Big Ten team that's fully committed. I mean, look at Texas schedule this year, Josh. It was harder than the Falcons. They. It was ridiculous. It was just boo, boo, boo, boo. So my take is, I don't want to hear about high minded principles. If you have an independent schedule, half independent, I think you have to. You got to acquiesce a little bit on this thing. Why am I so wrong?
Josh Pate
No, no, I don't think you're wrong. So I got two viewpoints. I actually have three viewpoints on this. The one is just mine, and that is, like I said, I'm a big time regular season guys and I'm a big time rivalries guy. I care about rivalries more than I care about the playoff. And I'm dead serious when I say that. So, yeah, I have always viewed it as just egregious that if you have a rivalry that stood for 80 years or 100 years or whatever, that any current coach or current administrator even has the power to come in and mess with it. Now that's my like college football worldview. So then if I leave my worldview, everything you're saying has tons of validity to it. Of course it makes sense. I do think that there's probably a little more merit. Like if I'm looking at the seesaw, it probably tilts about 60% your way in that Notre Dame needed to come to the table a little more because of the conference affiliation thing, which is really interesting because there, there's been one example now, one glaring example, where they finally paid somewhat of a price for not being in the conference. And that's they're not in the playoff right now.
Colin Cowherd
Right.
Josh Pate
This could end up being another one. But it doesn't look like it right now. Right now it looks like, oh, well, they're not going to play usc but their schedule is a cakewalk. That's the air conditioner coming on in the background, by the way. Their schedule is a cakewalk. Now, I don't know that people are. People are willing to understand. Notre Dame just missed the playoff now because they lost their two tough games and even went on a string of 10 in a row, and the committee still left them out. I don't know that they can afford to lose more than one next year. Now, maybe they go into point, but you look, if they're serious, and by they, I mean the committee at large, if they're serious about. We're really, really going to emphasize and reward scheduling up.
Colin Cowherd
You're, You're.
Josh Pate
You're really sort of playing a little bit of game of cat and mouse here. And that's beyond just my personal wishes. But if you're Notre Dame and your wishes. We want to make the College Football Playoff, you better be careful. USC is going to have enough meat on the bone with or without you. I don't know that you're going to have enough meat on the bone.
Colin Cowherd
Yeah, I mean, USC could absolutely lose at home to Ohio State and let's say Indiana without Mendoza. Probably not quite as good, but good. Let's say they lose that one and then they beat Oregon and they beat Washington and they beat their rival and they went. You can make an argument, they'll be 11 or 12. I think what USC thought is, if you've already got a side deal with the College Football Playoff, we're not allowing you to potentially beat us and knock us out. Like, if we're going to do it, we're doing it in the sun, we're doing it in the heat, or we're doing it in your humidity, but we're not doing it midterms. We're not doing that. And so I can back them. I will say the final seven games that will be played going forward. Last week, I did pick Miami over Texas A and M. That was. That was my upset pick. I said this all year, Josh. I didn't buy. I watched Texas A and M four times. The South Carolina game was some of the wildest shit I've ever seen in my life. Clay Travis deserved props at halftime. He's like, I am betting A and M. And I was like, that takes some courage. And he got it. I mean, that's like the bet of the year. Okay, so Miami, Ohio State. Listen, you have a break. You're not asking them to do it week after a week, which I don't think they could do. I think it's low scoring. I would take Ohio State by about a touchdown. Like 24, 16ish. Your thoughts?
Josh Pate
I'm going to, I'm going to walk with you so we can actually hear each other. I went to that A and Miami game this past week. I think that it's, it's probably accurate to say Miami may have the O line and D line edge in that game with Ohio State. Crazy. And there's my niece in the background. I, I don't think people understand just how violent Miami plays football.
Colin Cowherd
Oh my God, it jumps off tv.
Josh Pate
It's crazy. And you may look at it and say, oh well, they can't score and that may very well be what holds them back. We may be looking at a 13 to 6 final or something like that, but I mean, there's no way to simulate that. I don't know how to explain it. I do not call Miami an ACC team. Nothing about them resembles an ACC team. I know the patch on the chest says that, but it very much resembles and probably even exceeds in this given year what Georgia is going to put on the field, what Michigan puts on the field, probably even what Oregon puts on the field. So look, I, I looked at that Ohio State draw as soon as that thing came out and you were going to get either A and M or in this case Miami spat out at you. Then if you win, that probably got Georgia. And so you, you may be looking at your first two toughest draws in the first two games that you play in the bracket. But I, I was at the game the other day, man, that wind was no joke. And I think that Miami coaching staff, that offensive staff looked at it and said we're not letting Carson back lose this game. We realize our defense has sunk at.
Colin Cowherd
That's what I think.
Josh Pate
Like we're, I, I refuse to believe they're that inept offensively. Like that passing game is that anemic with a multi year starter. I don't care what people think about him, he's a little bit better than what you saw the other day. So I watched Ohio State play Indiana and they kind of played a similar game that they've played all year. They just didn't take advantage of scoring opportunities and that's what it took for him to lose a game. That absolutely could happen here as well. That one, it's got, it's crazy because it's got the biggest spread of any of these games in the quarterfinal round. And I think I can make a solid argument. It's the most intriguing game of any of them.
Colin Cowherd
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Josh Pate
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Josh Pate
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Josh Pate
Be door yeah, they certainly do. There's a there's such a silo phenomenon about them. Like their stat profile is totally Big 12 centric. So what you think about the Big 12 or what the Big 12? Forget about what we think about the Big 12. What the Big 12 ends up being in terms of legitimacy will determine the shot Texas Tech as and for those listening, what I mean by that is they didn't Play anyone out of conference. So their entire stat profile, if they're number two in run D, if they're number six in pass D, it's all based on playing Big 12 competition. So what that will do in isolation sometimes in college football is it sets you up for real, real disparity in an outcome when you finally play big time out of conference competition, in this case in a playoff. And so the thing I'm looking at, I was looking at some of the odds today in some of the prop markets. Oregon's over under total rushing yards is 142. The most rushing yards that Texas Tech gave up this year was I think in the 120s to Kansas State. I was talking to some coaches this past weekend and they said, look all the respect in the world for Texas Tech. There is a chance for a legit O line and group of tailbacks to gash them because of how they have to play the run. And Oregon is one of the teams they circled. And so I'm looking at that. They may be wrong. If there's validity to that, think about no one, nobody, no one else even came close to doing that to Texas Tech this year. So if you do that, you make them play from behind. They won every game where they had their starter by 22 or more. So if you make them play a trail technique type game, like a trail game script, you flipped their entire season on its ear. And I also believe with Oregon, they probably benefited as much as anyone from experiencing what they experienced last year because they had that bi week but like they just got their tails whipped and they realized we just, we peaked in the middle of the season. We got beat by a team that's peaking now. And so, I mean I went up there in the spring, went up there a couple of times. That's all they were focused on in that building was how do we bottle up what Ohio State bottled up. Well, you're about to see what that yields in Miami in a couple of weeks.
Colin Cowherd
So Indiana is about a six point favorite over Alabama. Alabama is such an odd team. So Urban Meyer said this the other day, there's two Alabamas. He goes, the good one can win the Natty. The bad one is, you saw the first 10 minutes against Oklahoma, I thought it was over. It was 17 nothing. I'm like, this could be 34 to 3. This is brutal. The good news for Alabama, they are built to play from behind because they don't run. I mean, they had one nice run in that game against Oklahoma, but they have three really Big time receivers, tight ends can catch. So if you get ahead of them, it's okay. They're built to play. I mean, they almost, it's almost like they prefer not. They don't. They're not guilty, not running. They'll pass 17 times in a row. They're like, yep, this is what we do. Better pass, blocking line. Indiana is fascinating because if Mendoza chops it up three games in a row, not only is he going to be the number one pick, what if the New York Giants have the number one pick? It's Jackson, Dart and Mendoza. Like, it's a fascinating play. Indiana lost one of their stars on the defensive front. I think they're really balanced. I think they're really well coached. Again, what's funny is whenever this happens where the bigger brand like Indiana, you would think Indiana favored over Alabama, but I told you that two years ago. So what's funny is that's telling you Indiana's a better team. But in Indiana's locker room, Alabama is the story of the game. And I think that's an advantage for Indiana. I Urban Meyer said, keep your eye on Bama. And he said, well, it depends on which one shows up. I've watched them six times this year. You never get the same team for the whole game. Alabama's just not consistent enough for my taste.
Josh Pate
So I agree with you because I've watched every game that you've watched. The one thing I wonder is ever since Ohio State did what they did last year and became like version 2.0 of themselves in the postseason, I will always reserve that compartment in my mind for a talent roster of a minimum threshold which Alabama meets to do that can't run the ball, hasn't been able to all year. Defense has probably been a little bit of a revelation relative to what people expected it to be. So I may have a little different take on that. Like who has the edge? Because I think it's insane. So Indiana's got to deal with that time off thing that Oregon dealt with last year and we never really know what that means. But also like giving Alabama red meat of understanding, hey, legitimately, most of the country expects you to lose to the University of Indiana or Indiana University, I think is something that plays down there. Now, look, I have never had respect for programs that require disrespect or require doubt as their fuel because I don't think it's a long term sustainable model. Clemson did it for a while and then everyone believed in them and then it's no, it's no coincidence. They kind of peaked and fell off because you run out of the fuel that got you there. I think that if you got Josh Cuevas healthy, who is that tight end that kind of played a little bit the other night? Jam. Jam. Miller still on his way back. I was a believer that if Alabama can somehow get over Oklahoma, then there's some downhill momentum because then they really stand a shot of getting their guys back. And to do that, to beat Oklahoma, what ended up having to happen is Ty Simpson just had to let it rip. And they did. I mean, they played really, really good offensive ball for the final three quarters. You take away the pick six, you're going in there and getting what, 28 or what not on Oklahoma in Norman. It was a very, very tough place to play. I say all that to say you're probably facing the most well coached, fundamentally sound team that you will see in this tournament. So you got to be razor sharp. I do believe that Indiana has stunned people with their run defense all year because you don't really see anything else like it. And like I told you with that Oklahoma game earlier this year with Alabama, I don't care about that so much. Nor do I care that maybe you could make Bama play from behind because they're totally comfortable doing it. Trade off is Indiana can force turnovers just like Oklahoma did the first time around. And if you do that, it's done. But I'm telling. I. I don't know why. I cannot shake this feeling that Alabama's going to go out there and give them everything that they can handle. And it shouldn't shock you on the surface because it's Alabama doing it to Indiana. But if you've watched Indiana this year, they suffocate people and may very well do it to Bama.
Colin Cowherd
Okay, George is a 6 1/2 point favorite against Ole Miss. I think they'll win. I'll start with this. The world's change. If you took a Georgia team from four years ago and they faced this Georgia team, would this Georgia team get rolled? Because this Georgia team was in four close.
Josh Pate
Yeah. Yeah.
Colin Cowherd
And I'm. I think. I mean, I was thinking the other day, I'm like, God, do we understand how even Alabama beat Georgia? And I knew Georgia was the better team. And I'm like, man, those Georgia teams, like four years ago, dude, that was. I mean, if you count backups who would eventually make the NFL, you had 22 NFL players. There was no position that didn't have a pro. And I look at this Georgia team and I Always say, turn the sound down for the first five to 10 minutes of a game. And just like you do that with the Seahawks, you're like, damn, they're fast. That is. You do that with Georgia four years ago, it's like, how's anybody scoring them? I mean, everybody, all their linebackers, their safeties are all sideline to sideline guys. And I watched this Georgia team, and I think if Lane was back, if Lane was coaching, I'd be like, oh, this could just get interesting. I just. I think George is vulnerable. And they still simultaneously could be the best team in the country. Where do you land?
Josh Pate
It's so perfectly stated because I think they're. They finished the season playing their best ball.
Colin Cowherd
Yep.
Josh Pate
I, I think now I'm going to speak. And Kirby Smart may agree with this, but he had never publicly admitted, I think they've gotten more out of this team than they thought they. They were capable of getting. I think they. They're not flying at 35, 000ft like the 2020 team, but to get this team up to 28, 29,000ft, I think it's been pretty impressive. Having said that, if you, if you look at what they were required to do against Georgia Tech and Alabama, which were their last two games, it wasn't much offensively. This Ole Miss team is playing with Trinidad Chambliss, who, last time he faced Georgia, it was his first SEC road start, and he went there and required Georgia to hang 40 to win the game. Now, they did all credit to him. I was listening to Kirby talk the other day, and someone was asking him, you know what. What does losing Lane mean to them? And you know how sometimes guys want to say a whole lot more than they actually do say in their answer? It was almost like he wanted to slap the guy in the back of the head and say, buddy, the guys call in the plays are there. Charlie Weiss Jr. Is the one that we. We look at and we really respect on that offensive staff. Like, good, good on Lane for putting the staff together and putting the players there. The ones that we're worried about are still there. Now, he didn't say it like that, but I was kind of reading between the lines. I think they. I think they know they've got their hands full in this game. I think they know they've got the guys that can stretch the field on them, and they. They've only faced one other team capable of doing that down the stretch, and it was Alabama. But Alabama was rudderless when they played him, so they never had to deal with it like they did the first time around. So that one's the last game on New Year's Day. That one's down the same building. Georgia season ended in last year against Notre Dame. Gunnar Stockton was the starter then. He's the starter now. I will always wonder. Gunnar Stockton played a great game against Ole Miss the first time. I firmly believe it's going to fall on his shoulders to win the game. Throwing the ball again. And there's a ton of variance that gets thrown into the equation when you're asking a guy who hasn't always been asked to do that down the stretch to do that to win a game.
Colin Cowherd
I'll tell you. Trinidad Chambliss, it was about six weeks ago. I'm watching him play, and I text that buddy of mine who's gm. I said, I'm watching a smaller Dak.
Josh Pate
He's. He's a baller.
Colin Cowherd
I said, I'm like, man, I said, I know you guys can't draft him in the first three rounds because he's tiny, but I'm like, I love this kid. Like, I would draft him fifth round and I'd be like, it reminds me a little of Malik Willis. And you put him in the other night with no snaps, and you're like, chicago can't tackle. He's just too fast. Like, I. I think Chambliss is really.
Josh Pate
I'm telling you, I talked to a Georgia staffer the other day that said that's the best quarterback we'll face in this tournament no matter who we play. They. They would have to play, like, Ohio State. They'd have to play the big boys. And they said, when you. When you combine what he can do with his legs and the throws he can make on and off schedule, we will not face a better one. And he's got another month and a half's worth of maturation that he didn't have when we first played him.
Colin Cowherd
I'm going to look this up real quick. I want to do it because I've seen him play half a dozen times. I love watching him.
Josh Pate
Yeah. I mean, if you talk about. If you talk about the basketball parallel, sometimes what will carry a team through that basketball tournament is some guy that you had not really heard a whole lot about. If you're just the general public, gets red hot and carries a team. If you're thinking about that in terms of football players in this thing, that is one of the guys who could get hot and carry a team.
Colin Cowherd
So they list him at 6 1, 200 I don't doubt the 200 because he's got his. If you watch him when they take sideline shots or line shots. The kids. The kids. He reminds me a little, honestly, physically of Bo Nix. Like, he's in shape, he's cut. So they list him. God, he is something else. Second team, all sec. Yeah, they list him at six one. I'm telling you, some smart GM in the NFL is going to take him in like the fifth round. He's going to play because he is, he is clever. And just, I just, it's just fascinating because when I watch these small guys in the NFL don't last, but they almost all come into the league. And for the first three years, there are these little dots that run around all these defensive coordinators. Can't quite figure out what to do with them. All right, let's close out on this. Josh Payton joining us.
Josh Pate
Oh, by the way, let me mention this. Colin in the South.
Colin Cowherd
Yeah.
Josh Pate
There's something really disgusting happening right now with Ole Miss. I have got two people in my own social circle who predicted Ole Miss to go to the playoff this year. And every bit of their reasoning was, well, Austin Simmons is going to carry him at quarterback. All right? We haven't seen Austin Simmons in months. And they're dropping I told you so's on me. And I, I promise you, I would bet my life neither of them even knew who Trinidad Chamblis was coming into the season. And yet their prediction verified because a kid from Ferris State ended up taking the quarterback position and running with it. And they're dropping I told you so's on me. And it's a big problem in the SEC right now.
Colin Cowherd
Okay, so the Michigan job is really good. I said this a few years ago. In a perfect world, in college football, you would have like six teams, be great. Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, probably Bama, usc, Notre Dame, they would be great, right? Oklahoma matters, but they don't have a huge national footprint. Same with Florida. I look at the Michigan program and I told a buddy this the other day, I said, you know, years ago, if you're Michigan and you hire the wrong coach, you're going to get your ass kicked for about three years by Ohio State like a Brady Hoag. And then you'll, you'll rebuild the program. But when you miss now, if you're. It doesn't matter who you are. Kaylin DeBoer was a big swing. It's necessary now because now Texas and Texas A and M are in and Oklahoma. I mean, this. The Texas school is big money. So my take is this idea of, okay, it's a little sideways at Michigan. Let's, let's go get. Okay, let's go get a guy who we can trust, who's a good guy. My take is guys, usc, this will be the most talented team they've had since Pete. Oregon's humming, Ohio State's a monster. Matt Campbell will figure it out with the nil portal pretty quick at Penn State. Indiana is now a powerhouse. Washington's always good. Jed Fish won nine games. Nine or 10. He won a bowl game, nine games in a total rebuild that if you miss. It used to be if you miss Josh in the SEC or the Big Ten after about two years, you know, you could, you could if you miss. Now, first of all, coaches aren't leaving Lincoln. Riley would have been fired six years ago, right? Didn't win enough. Now you're paying so much money for facilities and nil. You can't run out coaches on $80 million yoem. So my takeaway is if Michigan butchers this, this, it could be one of these things. You're not going to go find Jim Harbaugh. A lot of the young coaches, because of the way college football is with Nil, they don't want to deal with it. They just want to stay in the pros and be coordinators. They don't want. There's a real fine line now, like some Marcus Freeman. There's a lot of guys that are like, if he bails in college, college is less attractive than it used to be because it's pro football with free agency and paying players. Is there a perfect hire for Michigan?
Josh Pate
Yeah, but I'm going to answer this sort of in a trick answer fashion. Let's say you and I are talking a couple of three years ago, Indiana job comes open and you ask me, is there a perfect hire for Indiana? We don't. We may know who Kurt Signetti is if you were really, really sick and followed us level, but none of us, you never would. He wouldn't be among the first 100 names you mentioned.
Colin Cowherd
All right, well, that's right.
Josh Pate
Indiana hired him. Immediate grand slam, as it turns out, one of the greatest hires in the history of the sport. So of course you could do the whole low hanging fruit thing of who's the next Kurt Signetti? Well, it's conditional to the program. So who is Michigan's next guy like that. I just have never believed that when you look at all these hot boards and it's so like, it's so incestuous it's the same three, four, five names, and we can't get DeBoer and Kenny Dillingham said no. So what do we do? Do we just go with Biff Poggy for a year, or do we hire Jeff Brahm or whatnot? I. You will never convince me the circle of capable candidates is not way bigger than that. And people just don't have the head on their shoulders or maybe don't have the. The bravery, for lack of many better terms, that Indiana did, to be able to go and take a risk, but take a calculated risk on a guy. So, anyway, when I say that, people say, okay, well, who's your candidate? I wouldn't know that candidate. I didn't know Kurt Signetti. But I'm also not running the Michigan search. It's not my job to know that. And I've always said, if you're running a coaching search, I don't mean a coaching search firm. I mean the search firm gives you the intel. It's in your lap. You got to make a decision. If you don't have a couple of three names that, if they were made public, would really raise some eyebrows, I don't think you're doing your due diligence, and you probably need to be subscribing to the message board, getting updates instead of being the person whose search they're getting updates about. So I'm. I'm sure that. I'm sure what you're saying is true, because I think that there are a bunch of. You get your Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, usc, like, they're all. They're all in. We know that Michigan, from an emotional and financial standpoint, it's all in. The big story in the Big Ten will be what Nebraska, Michigan State, those sorts of programs do over the coming years. Wisconsin, because they've all infused a ton of money into nil. They've got it to spend because of the media dollars. And so in the sec, you go like eight or nine deep with programs that some of them suck, but they're fully invested in trying to win. The Big Ten has not been that. The Big Ten is becoming that. And that's why, like, if you're the number, if you're Michigan, you're no worse than number four at any point in that conference. And the gap between 4 and 5 is like falling off a cliff. If that gap closes, it's like. It's kind of like in the sec, you may be number two now, you may be number eight or nine, because there's just not a ton of room that you have to fall to become eight or nine. And that's where you really get yourself in trouble. If you're Michigan and you make a wrong hiring, it coincides with about three or four of the programs simultaneously getting their act together.
Colin Cowherd
Yeah, I mean it's, it's, the Big Ten is, I mean, it's not as deep, it's not as hardy as the sec. But if this, if Indiana sustains it because next year USC is going to be good. When Jordan, when Jaden Mayava said I'm coming back, I've seen him play live four times. Six, four, two, three. Pretty easy thrower. When he said I'm coming back, I was like, oh, oh, this is a real team now. This is 11 win team. This is a real team. So you miss and you're in trouble because I think Matt Campbell at Penn State's going to fix it real quick. I think the Nil helps him. You know, the Big Ten money spectacular. So. All right. By the way, you tell me about your last trip to Kwik. Trip.
Josh Pate
It was last night at about 2:30am actually in Ringgold, Georgia, as I was headed home. The cold brew on tap, I think I took a picture of it and tweeted it out. It's just I go with a mixture because I don't really care what stuff tastes like anyway. But I mean I filled up out in the parking lot. No one there because it's 2:30 in the morning. And then you go hit the cold brew on tap. Now the added bonus is the kid behind the counter recognize us because we just got Quick Trip plastered all over the show. And so I got the added bonus of a friendly face checking us out. But man, it has been a godsend for us on the road because a lot of times I'm doing those overnight trips. And so the gasoline, yes, the cold brew on tap and the other snacks you know, that anyone wants, it's all at Quick Trip. Big friend of the program.
Colin Cowherd
Josh Pate. Thanks, buddy.
Josh Pate
Appreciate it. Colin. The volume.
Colin Cowherd
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Josh Pate
Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line, but first.
Colin Cowherd
They are there.
Josh Pate
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Episode: College Football Playoff Preview, Michigan’s Head Coaching Search, USC/Notre Dame Rivalry Paused
Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Colin Cowherd
Guest: Josh Pate
This episode dives deep into the shifting landscape of college football, focusing on the expanded College Football Playoff, the fallout from the paused USC/Notre Dame rivalry, and Michigan’s high-stakes search for a new head coach. Joined by college football analyst Josh Pate, Colin breaks down the implications of playoff expansion, evaluates contenders and matchups, and analyzes the strategic tensions between storied programs. The conversation is characteristically candid and insight-rich, giving listeners a nuanced view of current controversies and changes in college football.
Discussion Points:
“Everybody always talks about the first weekend. ‘Oh, it’s magical.’ … Twenty of the 32 games last year in the first round were abject blowouts. The average margin of victory was 17 points.” (Colin Cowherd, 04:28)
"The playoff’s always been a cherry on top of the main event, which to me is the regular season." (Josh Pate, 07:34)
"If I’m going to make an anti G5 stance, it should only be about this. It should sound something like, I believe there’s a minimum baseline strength of schedule..." (Josh Pate, 06:27)
Memorable Quote:
"You will get these smaller schools that have a quirky offense or like a sixth round NFL quarterback and they go five wide and you’re like holy sh—… There’s space for the occasional fun blowout." (Colin Cowherd, 08:13)
(12:25–15:30)
Key Points:
"That’s like a little trigonometry, a pre-Calculus. There’s a physics in there. Notre Dame’s schedule next year is so egregiously bad. It’s two plus two is four, man." (Colin Cowherd, 12:33)
Memorable Moments:
"I care about rivalries more than I care about the playoff. And I’m dead serious when I say that." (Josh Pate, 13:36)
"Notre Dame needed to come to the table a little more because of the conference affiliation thing..." (Josh Pate, 14:00)
(15:30–18:59)
"I would take Ohio State by about a touchdown. Like 24–16ish." (Colin Cowherd, 16:51)
Quotable:
"I do not call Miami an ACC team. Nothing about them resembles an ACC team..." (Josh Pate, 17:26)
"It’s got the biggest spread ... and I think I can make a solid argument it’s the most intriguing game…" (Josh Pate, 18:59)
(24:33–28:05)
"If there’s validity to that… you make them play from behind, they won every game where they had their starter by 22 or more. You flipped their entire season on its ear." (Josh Pate, 27:06)
(28:05–32:23)
"Urban Meyer said this ... there’s two Alabamas. He goes, the good one can win the Natty. The bad one is, you saw the first 10 minutes against Oklahoma, I thought it was over." (Colin Cowherd, 28:05)
Quote:
"I don’t know why. I cannot shake this feeling that Alabama’s going to go out there and give them everything they can handle." (Josh Pate, 32:06)
(32:23–37:18)
"If you look at what they were required to do against Georgia Tech and Alabama ... it wasn’t much offensively. This Ole Miss team is playing with Trinidad Chambliss, who ... required Georgia to hang 40 to win the game." (Josh Pate, 34:07)
(38:48–44:18)
Major Themes:
"If you miss now, ... Texas and Texas A&M are in and Oklahoma. This—The Texas schools, big money. ... You’re not going to go find Jim Harbaugh." (Colin Cowherd, 39:23)
"You will never convince me the circle of capable candidates is not way bigger than that ... If you don’t have a couple or three names that ... would really raise some eyebrows, I don’t think you’re doing your due diligence." (Josh Pate, 41:36)
“I’m okay with two teams of the 12. Probably not ideal because I do think the regular season gets diminished a little bit with a 12-team playoff.” (Colin Cowherd, 04:28)
“Notre Dame schedule next year is so egregiously bad. It’s two plus two is four, man. It’s A, B, C, D. Shop class and gym class.” (Colin Cowherd, 12:38)
“If you’re going to play a small school, don’t throw wishbone up stuff in there. Like…We have to use a wide receiver, and then he has to pretend he’s a quarterback for two days of practice. It’s nonsense.” (Colin Cowherd, 10:23)
“If Michigan butchers this, it could be one of these things—you’re not going to go find Jim Harbaugh … If you miss and you’re in trouble because I think Matt Campbell at Penn State’s going to fix it real quick. I think the NIL helps him. You know, the Big Ten money spectacular.” (Colin Cowherd, 44:18)
The episode is conversational and lively, balancing Colin’s incisive, slightly sardonic takes with Josh’s detailed, data-driven perspective. Both express deep knowledge of and affection for college football traditions, while also dissecting how recent structural changes are upending old certainties.
This summary covers the principal storylines and analysis of the episode, from playoff mechanics to institutional pressures within college football. It provides context for the current climate in the sport and will help listeners follow key debates heading into the playoff and offseason.