← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Colin Cowherd Podcast - Darnold Dazzles, Joe Burrow Is On FIRE, Big Pressure On Bills, Trade Kyler Murray? CFP Picks
01:15:43
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- [00:00]
Chase Freedom
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- [00:30]
Lavar Arrington
Hey, what's up guys? It's Lavar Arrington here from up on Game. Wanted to talk to you about a serious issue Hate. You know, something personal that I have experienced and witnessed and watched is how the hate in our country is getting so out of control. It's at an all time high and people are facing way too much hate. A lot of people don't think it's a problem, but I do. I can recall growing up being in high school. One of my high school teammates, good dude too, just happened to wear a shirt that was a derogatory shirt towards my racial group. It depicted Malcolm X moments after he was assassinated and it just made me feel really, really sad, it made me feel upset and so many other emotions. And it's really because we're supposed to be a team. But it's going to take all of us to stop that sort of hate. As I mentioned, we are a team in this country. So let's take a break from hate so our team can regroup and regain our momentum. We need to take a timeout against hate. Visit Stand up to all hate.org to help and join me and calling for a timeout against hate by following at what's up with Hate? Or posting the Blue Square emoji.
- [01:53]
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- [01:54]
John Middlekoff
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- [03:21]
JPMorgan Chase
The volume our week 17 reaction is presented by Uber Eats. Get game day deals all season long on Uber Eats. All right, here we go. Former NFL scout John Middlekoff. He has a podcast, three and out. It was a very busy weekend. Sunday especially the early window didn't give us much. But let's start with Minnesota 27, Green Bay 25. So I had a conversation yesterday with a general manager in the league who said, yeah, you can forget, you can forget Sam Darnold at 40 million. He said, you're not getting Sam Darnold at 40 million. Sam's moved into the 55051 and I watched him today, even after his pick, five for five, 55 yards, touchdown, final drive. You know, he got a little bit lucky. Some play calling. You know, let's just be honest here. Kevin O'Connell's development and play calling is substantial. And between Jefferson, Addison and Naylor, the Michigan State kid, they have incredible wide receiving group. So I'm not taking anything away. But Sam, here's the thing. I take away John and you as a former scout, they're asking him to make big boy throws some of this shit. These are hard. Even when they were leading late in the fourth, I'm like, guys, screen passes, lighten up. They're asking Sam, this is not dink and dunk. These are tough throws.
- [04:55]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I mean, he's treating this guy like Mahomes meets Joe Montana in terms of his play calling, complete trust. I mean, honestly, you removed two throws. The interception where he got greedy and the throw toward the end of the game that he air mailed Addison. That could have been a disaster. Yeah, he was as good as the Josh Allen, Mahomes, Lamar. I mean, that's a dominant, dominant, dominant performance. I thought given the hype in this game and the pressure and we know Minnesota's got to be one of the better home field advantages.
- [05:23]
JPMorgan Chase
How loud it is, maybe the best.
- [05:25]
John Middlekoff
You know, sometimes you can be over juiced to go 17 of 22 in the first half and just slice and dice this team. You know what I had to do immediately? I had to google Jordan Love's contract because I'm thinking and listen, Jordan Love, for whatever reason, for a good player, he is a slow starter in these games.
- [05:41]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [05:41]
John Middlekoff
But I googled, he got a $75 million signing bonus and $160 million guaranteed. And if I'm Sam Darnold and we beat Detroit next week and we're the number one seed, I don't see how you could take anything less than that. It's like because Jordan Love got paid really off eight games. Remember the first half of the season, he was atrocious and obviously he had been there longer and they liked him and they know him. But every time I hear Kevin O'Connell talk about Sam Darnold, it's like the way I hear Andy talk about Mahomes. I mean, they love the guy. And listen, they didn't. This is not a clunky Atlanta Falcon situation. This was good business. They paid a guy $10 million and they drafted a guy who essentially fell into their lap that they liked as well. J.J. mcCarthy. Things changed throughout the course of the year. This is not a 35 year old striking oil late in his career. Right. This is not a Geno Smith situation. 27 years old, he was one of the younger players to come in the league. Right. When he was drafted today was. And they've been doing this all season. I was like, this is not, it's not like they've peaking. They were blowing out teams immediately. The Giants, they destroyed, they destroyed the 49ers, they destroyed the Texans. And in their fourth game, they were up 28 to nothing on this Packer team in Green Bay. And the Green Bay came back, but they've been dominating start to finish with him at quarterback.
- [06:52]
JPMorgan Chase
Look at the, look at the 2018 draft class. Baker, Darnold, Josh, Allen, Lamar, all having their best years. And it's funny, like we used to always talk about the Marino and Elway class. We've had two classes now that have been like four star quarterbacks out of it, you know. And it's funny, John, because in baseball we understand even if you're Bryce Harper, you go to the minors and it takes a while to get it going. In the NBA, even if you're Giannis, it takes three to four years to build into something. But in the NFL, we figure, well, you know, you're 22, you went to college. But it's very similar if you don't get a good fit. I mean, Mahomes didn't play his first year. You know, Josh Allen was rough his first year, like, and if you go to a bad organization, I mean, so it's like you look at Sam now, you're like, Sam has four to five more minimum peak years. Here's the other thing. I'm never going to talk about a guy's money, right? Like, but if you could take a little less to stay with Minnesota, even though they have Jay McCarthy in the offing, it's weird. Like, I mean, listen, again, if somebody offers you 52 and you know, I'm Minnesota, I don't let him go. I think you and I agree, I'm not letting him go. But if he goes to the, if he goes to the market and somebody offers 51, but it's like the Raiders or you can go to a place that's got better players and better personnel. Because I think what Sam has learned is, wow, coaching and weapons really matter. Really matter. Because I think, I mean, we can talk about Justin Jefferson, but hell, Naylor today, TJ Hawkinson the run game, Addison, Kevin O'Connell, you know, we haven't talked about this. Is Kevin O'Connell the coach of the year?
- [08:46]
John Middlekoff
You know, I'm sure we'll talk about Harbaugh a little bit later, but to me it's Kevin O'Connell or Jim Harbaugh. I mean, Jim Harbaugh took over a five win team. Kevin O'Connell, they started slow last year, but before Cousins towards Achilles, they were really coming on.
- [09:01]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [09:01]
John Middlekoff
And two years ago, if memory serves me correct, I think they were the 2 seed. Now they lost the giants in the first round, but this team has been good for a couple of years. Yeah, this is the best version of it. But you know, I always say about play callers, you know, certain people in any industry, obviously you get better at whatever you're doing with reps and experience. But. But certain people are just much. There's like an innate quality to them at what they're doing immediately. McVeigh, Kyle Shanahan, LaFleur, you could just see it. We see some of these guys become play callers and you're like, yeah, this is just not going to work.
- [09:34]
JPMorgan Chase
Right.
- [09:34]
John Middlekoff
Not because if you got them on a whiteboard, they would know any less than Kevin O'Connell, but the flow of a game, maybe they freak out, maybe they get stressed, maybe they lose it. Whatever it is he today was, it was like he would call the screen at the perfect time. He would call a perfect zone beating route in the perfect time. And obviously him in the quarterback. I don't see how you could ever pivot off when you're a play caller and you get a quarterback who's young and has these physical skills and it's working with your weapons, who are all under contract. Why you would want to mess with that just because you drafted a quarterback guy who cares?
- [10:08]
JPMorgan Chase
I thought the play call of the game, it was 27, 25. Minnesota needed two first downs to win the game. And the very first play, no defensive coach is calling this. The very first play was a bootleg first down pass. It was like a bootleg screen to the fullback. And there's not a defensive coach in the world that's calling that he packed because you're thinking to yourself, keep it on the ground, eat the clock, get a first down. He goes bootleg and picks the first down up on the first play, which doesn't eat clock. But what it did, it set the tone like. And by the way, that's the play they used on the other side to get the game clinching first down. But. And I love LeFleur, but boy, early in this game when they dug a hole, he was really leaning on the run game on early downs. And again, I think we both like lafleur, but I think maybe because he was a quarterback, I think Kevin O'Connell would rather throw and I think Matt LaFleur's DNA, he would rather run. And I thought in. In the first half you saw a little bit about. Of that.
- [11:20]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I think Kevin O'Connell's drawn more to Sean McVay. We're at their core, they do like slinging it around. And I think LaFleur at his core is more drawn toward Kyle and his dad. Where in this game, you know, on the road, we want to come out and establish we're tougher than you. And the one thing is this Vikings team is really, really tough.
- [11:39]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [11:39]
John Middlekoff
And I don't know if their personnel is great on defense, but their fundamentals, in terms of you're not getting guys out of gaps running the wrong way.
- [11:46]
JPMorgan Chase
That's right.
- [11:47]
John Middlekoff
Flores is. I mean, what him and Fangio have done to their units this year have just been dominant start to finish. And I think, listen, I appreciate because I've watched Kyle win some big games by leaning on the opponent because when you can run the ball, you slow down the game and take the crowd out of it a little bit. So I. And listen it's happened to lafleur before as the Green Bay Packer coach Kyle kind of did that essentially you know, in Green Bay in that cold game, you know in the playoffs a couple years ago where it's just like slow the game down, keep it a lower scoring game. Watson's out. We're not looking for a shootout. You know, Josh Jacobs is a tight back where I bet their game plan coming in was hey like 120 yards on like 30 carries and and we just control the you know, the time of possession because we're not going to be able to cover these guys. I mean those two. I mean Jordan Justin Jefferson is I mean as talented as of a wide receiver as there's been in of my adult life. I mean obviously the Randy Moss there are some all time great but his, his physical toolbox of deep speed break tackles, he were lower shoulder on defenders, one handed catches. I mean he's a total package. And then Jordan Addison was a first round pick who USC once upon a time gave a million dollars to transfer. Like that's a big time player.
- [13:03]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [13:03]
John Middlekoff
So I think that they knew that was a little disadvantage to him. We can't get in a shootout even though the packers can against some teams. Yeah, this. So they tried to slow the game and it blew up in their face because they couldn't, you know, they just weren't explosive on the ground. And I mean Sam Darnold looked, I just, I can't get over like it's just every single week he answers the bell like there's no more even conversation to have. It's just how are you going to approach it? Are you going to franchise them and then try to get the deal done? Well that screws you a little bit because you can't. That, that takes up a lot of your cap space. So you can't sign other guys. I think by the combine they might have a deal worked out. I, I don't know what else there is to see at this point in time.
- [13:42]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah, I mean he really gives you size arm playmaking. I think the year in San Francisco. Cognitively I think he's better above the shoulders. He can still be a tad reckless. I don't think he's naturally, naturally accurate like Burrow, but he's accurate in. He's actually strangely. I don't know if you've noticed this. He's almost more accurate on like a 25 yard seam route than a 6 yard swing pass.
- [14:15]
John Middlekoff
Throws it behind guys in a zone 30 yards down the field. He just throws A dart dart.
- [14:20]
JPMorgan Chase
He is better. You know, his fastball is better than his off speed stuff. When you're asking Sam, who's hyper aggressive, to throw a little lob out 12 yards, like that's the stuff where it gets, it gets a little dicey. But you ask him to throw that, that ball down the middle of the field, dude, he, he has got a rope.
- [14:37]
John Middlekoff
One thing that really jumps out is some guys, they'll just play very conservative what the game plan gives you. Like, they won't try to push the envelope. Even good players, you know, Jared Goff can play like this and it works. And Jordan Love operates like this. A lot of the time this guy comes out like early Mahomes or like Farve where it could get you in trouble too. But he is looking to throw 50 yard bombs. Every time you watch them play, regardless of the opponent, it feels like they take a legit shot minimum once a quarter. Yeah, sometimes more. And I'm not talking 20 yards. I'm talking. He is letting it rip.
- [15:13]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [15:14]
John Middlekoff
And that is. And clearly him and the coach and obviously their weapons. It all kind of works like, like you said, because the coach wants to throw bombs. Yes.
- [15:24]
JPMorgan Chase
There's a, there's a certain symmetry with Kevin OConnell's DNA and Sam's ability. They, you know, you don't. And I do hope Brian Flores gets a head job because I really think he is taking, I think it's fairly average personnel and he's making it a B plus defense and it's probably C plus personnel, most of their talents on the offensive side. So we're going to go in a different order today. We're going to go back to a Saturday game because we're going to talk some Cam Ward. We'll get to the jets, we'll get to a lot of games, but it was a pretty light Sunday menu because of all the games on Saturday. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football, hockey action at DraftKings sportsbook. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted. College football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey too. Almost 24 7. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day. So many opportunities to place your first bet. Now if you're going to bet for the first time, just make it simple. Pick a team to win. Any team. Go to DraftKings Sportsbook. They have an app. Download it in 90 seconds. Here's the gift for all new customers. Bet 5 bucks. Just 5 bucks. If your bet wins, you get $150 in bonus bets. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. The code is Colin C O L I n new customers. 150 bucks in bonus bets. If you bet 5 bucks and it wins. Happy holidays from DraftKings. Crown is yours. Gambling problem.
- [16:44]
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- [17:16]
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- [17:40]
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- [17:45]
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- [18:19]
Lavar Arrington
Hey, this is Levar Arrington here from up on Game and listen, I want to talk to you about something very serious for a minute, all right? Something personal to me and right now something that should be personal to you as well. In our country, the hate is at an all time high and it's like we're going backward. The hate is winning. We can't allow that, all right? It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate and it's enough. It's time for it to stop. We need to stop, regroup, change the momentum as a team because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team. So let's act like it. And when a team can't get it together, what do you do you call a timeout? And that's what we need to do. Call a timeout against hate. Let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate, when we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong and hateful, we need to call it out. I'ma call it out. You need to do the same thing. Visit stand uptoallhate.org to help. And join me in calling for a timeout against hate by following at what's up with Hate? Or posting the blue square emoji.
- [19:37]
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- [20:25]
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- [21:22]
JPMorgan Chase
So I want to talk New England. Getting thumped by the Chargers Saturday 40 to 7 because we'll get into the Harbaugh stuff. I want to start with New England so the Boston media is a bit spoiled with a Celtic success. Years of great Red Sox teams and the Patriots 20 year dynasty. So they want to get rid of Gerard Mayall. But Dan Campbell went 3 and 13 and 1 his first year and then he went 1 and 6 to start his second year. This shit's hard. And Elliott Wolf is the VP in terms of personnel. They want him out. Well, he got the quarterback like Drake may come play now. I don't think at this point. Remember we had real reservations about Dan Campbell. The kneecap press conference. He came across as Fred Flintstone. But in the end he found a really sharp connective tissue to the quarterback named Ben Johnson. So it works for him. If he doesn't have Ben Johnson, it may not feel the same. And we still think he takes too many risks in big spots. But my take is New England now has the number one draft pick and they have their quarterback. So they could move down to five or six and get a Travis Hunter level player. Could get. They could get two first round picks, two seconds. And my take is. I think we're forgetting. We're not talking Jim Harbaugh. We didn't expect that. But when you. If you look at a lot of these coaches who turn things around that first year is not always Urban Meyer and Bill Parcells. I don't think Gerard Mayo is who I would have hired. Can I not argue? They got the quarterback. They're number one. Josh Allen's going to own this damn division as long as he's in his prime. Don't run through coach because you can't beat Josh Allen. You're not going to Brady on the division. Marino. I mean most great quarterbacks. Mahomes owns the division. Or are you a. It just doesn't look like it works. Let's go get the right guy.
- [23:15]
John Middlekoff
I think after watching yesterday and the way this is, I mean they were terrible last year. They had the third overall pick and they're worse this year. And his unit, the defense, like he was quote unquote the defensive coordinator. They were good last year. They're atrocious this year. Turns out. Well, Bill's kind of his baby. Right?
- [23:32]
JPMorgan Chase
Right.
- [23:32]
John Middlekoff
So now it looks like how much with Bill. The other thing is the Dan Campbell comparison. Dan had been an assistant for a long time post player, you know, he had been an interim coach for a brief stint with Miami. Then he became Sean Payton's right hand guy. This guy wasn't an assistant coach long. You know, him and Antonio Pierce. I have no issue with former players, you know, jumping people in the ring to, you know, to become position coaches, coordinators or whatever. But like that is pretty valuable. You know, this guy hasn't been a coach very long. So you're watching him, you're like, who would you rather have next year, Mike Vrabel or Gerard Mayo? And some of the press conferences, the whole situation's been clunky. You know, the reporting coming out of Boston about the interview process last year when he was interviewing assistants. It's been weird. They showed a graphic yesterday as they're getting their ass kicked of the lad McConkey trade. How the Chargers came up a couple spots to get lad McConkey. They took Polk, who all my scouting Buddies called the third best receiver on the Washington team. McMillan, who's had a solid rookie season for Tampa. He's got 12 catches. And it's just, you watch this team and you go, this is really, really bad.
- [24:43]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [24:44]
John Middlekoff
And it's like last year I was like, okay, Mac Jones is an atrocious player. Now you got Drake May and who's talented, but the games are just like him and Caleb playing just meaningless games.
- [24:54]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [24:55]
John Middlekoff
Even their passes are just in meaningless situations. You know, you watch Bo Nix playing in real games. I'm watching the Patriots. I personally, if Mike Vrabel wants it, he got inducted last year into the hall of Fame. Obviously he's a, you know, a major piece of the Patriots story and proven that he could coach. I think I wouldn't even hesitate doing.
- [25:15]
JPMorgan Chase
That if he was interested.
- [25:16]
John Middlekoff
It's been reported he's interested.
- [25:18]
JPMorgan Chase
By the way, would be it's a better job than Chicago or the jets if I got Robert Kraft and Drake May. That's a better job than the jets in Chicago. If you consider all the politics in another thing. It's familiar. Bob Kraft loves you. Stephen Kraft. So I. I will argue, I. You probably change my mind on that. I will say this because I. It's funny.
- [25:40]
John Middlekoff
I know that was real. That was really bad yesterday.
- [25:42]
JPMorgan Chase
Oh, no.
- [25:42]
John Middlekoff
I watched Leaving. Yeah. And it's not like the chargers. This isn't the 07 Patriots coming in with Jim Arnold. I mean, they're solid and they might compete in a playoff game, but that they shouldn't be beating anyone 40 to 7 on the road.
- [25:55]
JPMorgan Chase
You know, I was thinking about this with Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey of the Chargers coming in and dominating. When you're at Georgia every day at practice, the tight end faces first round safeties and Ladd McConkey faced first round NFL corners. It's not a coincidence that lad McConkey and Brock Bowers walk into this league. They look like eight year veterans because the last three years Four years they've been at practice at Georgia. That's why I've always had misgivings about drafting guys from smaller schools. An SEC guy, Georgia, Bama, Ohio State. These Ohio State corners, Caleb Downs is facing these receivers, the best players in the country, every day at practice. And you know, like Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, well, Stingley's on that team. I mean, these guys are going up against each other day, every day in practice and. But I think what, what's amazing about Harbaugh, not only did he take the same defense and make it number one in the league, and it was atrocious last year, but Quentin Johnson's fascinating because Telesco just thought they needed to move off. Eventually they would move off Mike Williams. They knew it because Mike couldn't stay healthy. They wanted Mike's prototype, a big, strong long. And he was a, he was a bus last year. I mean, could not get on the field, forget targets. And he's been inconsistent this year. But about every other game, this game, McConkey had eight catches. He had six about every other game with Quentin Johnson, who was a bust coming into this year, he's a really valuable player. And I think we. It's not just wins and losses, John. A really good coach squeezes all the juice out of a player. Quentin Johnson probably will never be a first round NFL talent or first round productive, but about every other game now you look up and you're like, boy, he's a, he's a different body type, his ability, I mean, Derwin James is good. Regardless of the coach, McConkey would have succeeded. But it's not just winning and toughness. I think the really good coaches, I mean, Kevin O'Connell and Darnold, they just get more out of each individual player. There's not a single charger this year that is not playing better than last year individually.
- [28:14]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I think, you know, did a podcast last night and I was thinking about Jim Harbaugh and this solidified it. There's just, there's no one else in football. I mean, we'll see what Bill looks like in college who can just go back and forth and kick everyone's ass. Stanford, they were 1 and 11. By the end, they're in a BCS game. The 49ers, while he inherited a lot of talent, they were 6 and 10 with Mike Singletary. And I know those guys that cover that team really well. And Matt Mayoko told me, even Jim Tomsula. And for as ugly as the Chip Kelly year, nothing will top that. Mike Singletary year.
- [28:51]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [28:51]
John Middlekoff
I mean he was dropping Trout at halftime, trying to motivate. It was a disaster.
- [28:56]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [28:57]
John Middlekoff
Immediately 13 and three and they were hosting the NFC championship game. And if you remember the White Sox GM Kyle Williams fumbled a punt or they probably beat the New York Giants and Eli Manning and go play the New England Patriots with Alex Smith as a quarterback. Whoever you wanted to written off. And then obviously what he did to Michigan. But then comes to the Chargers. I think the Chargers even more than the Niners because they got a bunch of good players. People like that's not as hard of a job. That team won five games last year and was atrocious.
- [29:24]
JPMorgan Chase
Worst team in the league by the end of the year.
- [29:26]
John Middlekoff
And then they get rid of Keenan Allen who was one of the bright spots. And you know what? And I got talked out of this. I thought I'm going to make one of the biggest bets of my life on this team making the playoffs. There are seven spots. You look, the AFC will get weird. Some of these divisions will eat themselves. I think Jim Harbaugh can get to nine or 10 wins and everyone, even people in the league is like, they don't have enough offensive talent. They don't have this, they don't have that. He never has great offensive talent. He runs the ball against the quarterback and he plays defense and he's doing the same thing again and he's going right into the playoffs. And who's going to want to play him in the playoffs? Nobody, you know, nobody. Because he will ugly up the game. What LaFleur tried to do today, he actually can execute that. And he doesn't win them all, but he can make that game look like that.
- [30:05]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah, well, I mean at Michigan, the Natty team had one big time receiver. His Niner teams had Crabtree. This team has McConkey. If you go look at his history, he's. Stanford was mostly a run game and an Andrew Luck team and a tight end team. Harbaugh hurt the two people, I was told good source inside the building. The two players that Harbaugh loved in the first round, Brian Thomas and Joe Alt, they're two of the best rookies. It wasn't Roma Dunze. It wasn't. He loved LSU's LSU kid and he loved Joe Walt and he decided to bookend it with Herbert and say, hey, we got two tackles for the next decade. But. And people forget about this. The Chargers also got two fifth round corners, one from Maryland. So Jim's going to have, I mean go look at their draft. They didn't miss on anybody. I mean, they just boom, boom. Everybody can play. So. And he's going to have. This is very Pete Carroll out of usc.
- [31:03]
John Middlekoff
The next guys.
- [31:04]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah, the next two drafts. He has an advantage over the league now by about year four. He's not going to have the same advantage, but it's very Pete Carroll. When he came out and he was getting Richard Sherman out of Stanford in the fifth round, everybody's like, how does.
- [31:17]
John Middlekoff
Pete know He's taken over two NFL jobs coming through college. Stanford, where he was in a BCS game in Michigan, where he won the national championship. The Niners had six wins. The Chargers had five wins. That's a combined 11 wins. If he wins next week, which I imagine if he, if he plays his starters, he will beat the Raiders. He will have taken a total of two teams 11 wins to 24 wins. More than doubled it coming from college twice, two different times. He just jumps back and forth. Who could do that?
- [31:45]
JPMorgan Chase
No, I think it's crazy. There's an argument to be made that if you, you know how basketball hall of Fame takes referees, it takes ambassadors, it takes college pro. It combines everything. If you combine college and probably Harbaugh and Jimmy Johnson, you know, I mean, now. So Reed and Belichick, because of all their wins, are like the top. You could start making arguments that Jimmy Johnson and Harbaugh are like the only two guys ever that were literally elite. Now, Pete Carroll won in both, but Pete's also been fired three times in the NFL. And I like Pete, but that's the reality of it. He's. He's always been viewed by my front office friends as a little quirky and different.
- [32:27]
John Middlekoff
Yeah.
- [32:27]
JPMorgan Chase
Harbaugh is a college A plus, plus NFL. And Jimmy Johnson's about the only guy I can ever think of that was both. And I, you know, for years and years, I had people in. I know Jim pretty well, and I know people that have been really close with him. Eric Mangini talks about this so much of what we do for a living and what people do for a living. And I've told my kids this before. How badly do you want it? And Eric Mangini has always told me, I've never met a coach who loves football more than Harbaugh. In his vacation, he'll be looking up old NFL rules that literally, we saw it this year right before halftime when they kicked that field goal against Denver, is that he loves football. He's not going to golf or go to a water park. I mean, I'm sure He's a great dad and a husband, but he has such a zeal for it and it's really. And that's the difference. He just. He is one of those guys. There's everything he likes. The aura, the essence, the power, the physicality, the schemes. And he'll sit in meeting rooms for hours and try to make his assistants and coordinators figure out the Rubik's Cube. And he loves sitting in there. And he's just an advertisement. In any business, if you want it bad enough and if you love it enough, you will just succeed. It doesn't matter where you went to college. It doesn't matter. The criticism, willful passion. And everybody I know that's ever worked with him is like this dude. It's not even. It's just the hobbies. They don't know what they are. It's football.
- [34:10]
John Middlekoff
Well, the other thing is. And I get asked a lot of, you know, just get DMS on Instagram, people asking questions and someone said, I'm a big Charger fan. And there's always been this narrative around Jim that he rubs people the wrong way and he has a shelf life. And I think at Stanford, you know, I think that mentality was a lot for people with the 49ers. It definitely was. And he butted heads with the owner.
- [34:33]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [34:33]
John Middlekoff
I think the guy and you and I have been talking about is a different human being than that guy.
- [34:37]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [34:38]
John Middlekoff
Much lighter with still the same drive. Like Andy is a very light. He's not like just what Jim was that. But he's very football intense. When you talk about the way you describe. I can. I didn't ever worked with Jim. I would describe Andy Reid that way. His love and passion and unwillingness to just slow down when it comes to football. Vacation off season. And I've heard since he's been winning Super Bowls, you wouldn't notice any difference. He'll drive by his cars in the office on Saturday just doing some miscellaneous shit in on an April day three weeks before the draft when they're not. They have three picks. You know, it's just his pure passion. And I. I'm sure you give this advice anytime. That passion, you can turn it into something you can monetize as a profession, you are much more inclined to be successful. But I do think Jim had to learn to relax a little bit as the head honcho, the guy top of the org chart. And I think he clearly has and I think it shows. And this is the worst his team's going to be. Right. And I'd say the same thing for Sean Payton and Denver. Like, both those two teams are going to get better, like the version of the Chiefs, and they're going to maintain being good because they really know what they're doing. But it's hard. I mean, they got to fit around some money. Like, this is the worst those two teams are going to be. Now, Herbert is a much better player than Bo Nix right now.
- [35:55]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [35:56]
John Middlekoff
So I would just say, like, I think the Chargers are going to be better next year. And like you said, he knows the draft really well. There'll be players. Nico Collins. I remember last year, it's like, who is this guy? Is like played at Michigan. I'm like, I watched. You don't even realize he has wide receivers in college that will play for him. Like, I didn't quite realize that guy was there because he doesn't even use them. I mean, that's. That's how it's always been.
- [36:17]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah. So 40 to a seven. A Chargers hammer new England. It's time to look at this weekend's tastiest matchup in this week's Sunday night Food Ball brought to you by Uber eats. Okay. Bill's 40 jets 14 jets had 16 penalties. It's over. So I will say this about Buffalo. I think these are the Sean McDermott playoffs. So Josh Allen, I looked it up today in 10 playoff games, has a passer rating of 121 touchdowns, four picks. This is not a Lamar Jackson situation. He has been a B plus to A minus quarterback in the playoffs. And again, I don't expect you to be as good as you are in the regular season because you're not playing Carolina and you're not playing shitty teams. So if you're 100 passer rating quarterback in the playoffs, that's exceptional. And Lamar has gotten tight. Like, you can see it. He's tight. That's not Josh. Josh has been excellent. If they get bounced early in the playoffs, and I know this sounds crazy and I like Sean McDermott, but John, if they lost, if they, if they got. If Cincinnati got in and played Buffalo in the first round and Cincinnati won, I'm telling you, I think McDermott's in trouble because when I watch this team, I don't want to hear about Josh Allen, okay? This is not a Josh Allen referendum. He lost a game because he scored a touchdown with 13 seconds left in Mahomes. He's been fine in the playoffs. This team, this coaching staff has real pressure on. I mean, think about this. Harbaugh is not Going to get fired if they lose in the playoffs. And he's not. I mean, think of a coach.
- [37:54]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, that. Yeah.
- [37:55]
JPMorgan Chase
LaFleur, you know, I mean, Sirianni, real pressure. Sean McDermott, real pressure. I am fascinated to watch Buffalo. They have to, at minimum, get to the conference championship. At minimum, in my opinion.
- [38:11]
John Middlekoff
Yeah. I mean, what they're going to be more than likely. I think Denver is going to win next week. If Andy rests everybody and it's a kitchen sink game for them, they would be a huge favorite in that game. I mean, we're talking touchdown plus maybe eight, nine points. I'm pretty confident Buffalo wins that game. The next game, though, it gets real. I mean, you're playing Baltimore, who feels like they're really coming on.
- [38:32]
JPMorgan Chase
Right.
- [38:33]
John Middlekoff
I don't know what Baltimore did. Their defense looks better. That would be a make or breaker because then if you win that game, all of a sudden, you'd have a lot of momentum going into Kansas City. Right. And you've beat them already this year. So I think it go one of two ways. I think they're winning week one or, you know, that. That first in Buffalo, no matter what, I'd have a hard time. But that Week 2 game against Baltimore is a massive, massive game that's going to. Because I. Because I would say this. If they go to Kansas City and they have another one of those. And listen, he's had some weird moments with clock management. If it feels like he blows a game, maybe. But if you get beats like, some people just couldn't be Michael Jordan. Some people just couldn't beat Tiger Woods, I don't think it. I think losing to Baltimore, you already lost to him this season. You get them at home in the second round. I think you've got to be in the conference championship game. I think you can lose to the Chiefs and keep your head high.
- [39:22]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [39:22]
John Middlekoff
Even though it would start to feel like, are we just always going to be second fiddle or us in Baltimore is always going to be second. And the fact is, yeah, you might. You know, that was kind of like Pittsburgh and some of these other teams to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. You just play for second in your conference. But I think they'd have to win that game or else it could be weird because. And listen, I think it's hard. I mean, what do you even make of the Jet? The jets are a joke. I mean, and I give the Bills credit. It was a little weird early, and then it was 40 to nothing and it was like, okay, you guys are just Toying with them.
- [39:54]
JPMorgan Chase
Well, we learned this. Matt Eberfluss and Robert Sala got fired and their teams got worse. So I always believe be very careful about firing a coach in season because if the interim coach wins, you get fan and player pressure to hire an inum coach. And if he loses, then you lose the locker room. So they're two and nine since Robert Sala left. But I always felt that Salah wasn't the problem. There's an argument he was not the solution, but I never thought he was the problem.
- [40:25]
John Middlekoff
But really quick, before the jets on the Bills, if you and I own the team and we were sitting down, like going to the playoffs, like, what are our different options if things go south? Our division is a disaster. The jets couldn't be any more of a laughing stock. The Patriots are not even a year away from being a year away from winning nine games. And the Dolphins, I mean, I just don't really take the franchise safely and we own them. So it's like now, you know, trying to go from really good to great. Totally admire anyone who's willing to do that, but it is a pretty risky proposition. Now, if that job became open, everyone and their mother would be calling them. But I just think that, like, you do have a pretty good thing going.
- [41:05]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [41:05]
John Middlekoff
And to me, especially if you lose the Chiefs, you're going to keep winning 12, 13 games every year in this division. And you. And you know, you have a capable guy. I'm just saying it's pretty risky.
- [41:14]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [41:15]
John Middlekoff
Do you just. Do you ride the course a little bit? Because the jets could go backwards from here and the Patriots could be stuck here for a couple years.
- [41:22]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah, no, I think, I think it's.
- [41:24]
John Middlekoff
I think it's something you got to take into account.
- [41:26]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah. I'm not saying I'd fire Sean McDermott, but I do believe the pressure is on Sean McDermott, whereas in Baltimore, the pressure's on Lamar. John Harbaugh's got a ring. The pressure with Joe Flacco. Lamar needs to play better. That's. That's indisputable. He's got to play better. Josh has played very well in most.
- [41:43]
John Middlekoff
Spots, I would agree. But that organization, I think most people would choose the Ravens roster over the Bills roster. I think that there's going to be a ton that game. I mean, we have to play it out. To look at all the different games, that's got to be one of the better playoff games of the entire tournament. Right. If I tell you Ravens at Bills, what's on the line for those two guys, it doesn't. I mean that's Saturday or Sunday night, week two. Right. That's as good as it gets.
- [42:06]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah. One thing on the Jets, Aaron, you know, 12 completions, two picks, he's. He's about the 15th or 16th best quarterback probably in the league now May, you know, maybe 13th, 12th. It's interesting this week though and Eric Mangini pointed this out to me on television that when Aaron referenced Woody Johnson's kids. I've never been fired by a teenager. It was almost as if Aaron was saying I want out of here. And I do think I'll say this. Russell may leave Pittsburgh. Don't know if he will. Kirk Cousins could be on the market, probably will. I think Aaron's got about a two team market. I could see the Raiders because they won again today. I could see the Raiders if they're like, we're not going to move up for camera Shadour. We're just not going to move up. I could see them going with like a Kirk Cousins or an Aaron Rodgers for a year. I really could for one year.
- [43:09]
John Middlekoff
Yeah. When I saw the story today, that rap sheet said that Garrett Wilson has basically let it be known if this guy comes back, I'm going to want out. Yeah, I was dominating and then you begged for your friend to come here and then I just became kind of irrelevant.
- [43:23]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [43:23]
John Middlekoff
And we know how wide receivers can kind of turn into divas that way. So that's gotten weird. And I would choose a young Garrett Wilson over a 41 year old Netflix star at this point in time. So I think this, Roger, this thing's.
- [43:35]
JPMorgan Chase
Who would you hire as a coach?
- [43:38]
John Middlekoff
I mean to me you just. Ben Johnson would be obviously a guy you'd interview just because. And I'm always hesitant with these coordinators, but there have been enough coordinators excel on the offensive side of the ball and he's been so good. He's to me, him and Vrabel, I mean now that Bill Belichick would have been a guy I would have hired if I were all these teams but I think those are the two guys. Who else you really option now? One, we got a curveball here because. And I know he got his ass kicked today, but you know, CD Lamb was out McCarthy, these teams are going to want to talk to Mike McCarthy. So Jerry has played this out like, yeah, we'll just date a little bit more before we really get married. It turns out like Mike's actually helped himself out. So like if Mike McCarthy's available, I know this. The jets could do way worse than just to get a grown up, a guy that knows what he's doing.
- [44:24]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [44:24]
John Middlekoff
And would be guaranteed to just get the train back on the tracks. So, like, to me, McCarthy is an intriguing option. If he goes, yeah. Jerry goes, yeah, I want to bring you back. And what if Mike goes? Yeah, you know, I want to talk to some other people as well as you kind of played me out and I worked my ass off and worked with these quarterbacks. So you have to wonder if Mike, you know, by week one of the Black Friday setup, like, is it Mike McCarthy's meeting with two teams? Like, is that possible while he's still dealing with the Cowboys? Oh, I keep an eye on that. I think that's happening.
- [44:55]
JPMorgan Chase
Listen, I said this last week. If you flip the TeleScope on Mike McCarthy, he gets older, stubborn, rigid. Brett Favre, two years, goes 13.3 NFC championship, wins a Super bowl with Aaron. We now discover that Aaron's difficult to coach. Both LaFleur and Robert Sala discovered that. And Mike McCarthy, 3 for 3. He then goes, not only wins 12 games a year with the best B plus quarterback the league in an O line rebuild. Dak, he's winning with Cooper Rush. And so it's like at some point, he won with Favre. He won with the Southern guy, he won with the prickly, passive aggressive Cali guy. He won with a guy that kind of, is kind of an overpaid B plus guy. Dak, he's now winning with a backup. You say what you want about Mike McCarthy, he's won with everybody. And all his quarterbacks put up their best records and their best numbers with him. So I know I always said this. Aaron was this good looking, cool guy in Green Bay, and Mike looked like a Milwaukee cop. And just the aesthetic of it. Sometimes Mike came across as sort of, you know, unsophisticated, little heavy. And Aaron was the hip coolster on tv. And I think that played into it, that Mike was sort of marginalized. But we have to be fair about this. Every quarterback that plays with Mike McCarthy flourishes. All of them, Cooper, Rush, Dak, Favre, Aaron, all of them flourish. And so to your point, I think he'll have options.
- [46:27]
John Middlekoff
And he's calling the plays. So it's not like, well, he's like Tomlin or Dan Campbell or Sirianni. You know, he's. He's rallying the troops. No, like he's the guy in the meeting with the quarterback calling the plays from the sideline. So he brings the value. So it's like, wait, he can lead the organization, he can handle crazy shit because like the end of Aaron, but the last couple years of Jerry could not. I mean, he's dealing with Jerry Jones in his 80s nuts. And then once he got rid of Kellen Moore, I think people thought, did he lose his touch at the end of Green Bay? You watched last year, Dak had the best year of his career.
- [46:59]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [47:00]
John Middlekoff
And then this fight, I mean, if the guy doesn't screw up against the Bengals on Monday Night Football touching that ball, he would have won five straight games with Cooper Rush. So I, I think Mike McCarthy, if you remove the day, which I think it's fair to say, if you just took every team in the NFL and they just nobody had a quarterback and everyone got the same quarterback, you might choose the Eagles team. Right. If every quarterback was the same, the Eagles probably had the best team. Like it was bound to happen to them. They were missing a couple players and they got run. But I think what else is Jerry going to do? Like, Jerry going to hire someone else. I think he's going to want McCarthy back. But I do wonder if Mike someone plays you a little bit in business and you got some leverage. I could see Mike screwing with him back a little bit.
- [47:42]
JPMorgan Chase
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- [52:00]
JPMorgan Chase
All right, so the Bengals beat the Broncos 30 to 24. Bo. Knicks, 16 and 1 possession games. Rookie quarterbacks, as you'd suspect, aren't going to beat Joe Burrow in games like that. So Burrow's the only great quarterback in the league that may not make the playoffs. And he's fricking on fire. And I mean, they had 500 total yards, 34 first downs, and by the way, Bonix didn't play well. 24, 31, 311 yards, seven rushes. He looked so average compared to Burrow. I mean, a couple plays, Bo, like he, he threw a ball, he should have thrown it into the dirt. He threw it to his running back who got smoked. Some of that stuff is just the NFL. Some stuff just doesn't work. That worked your entire college career. Like you can see sometimes he'll make a throw and you're like, yeah, that's not going to work here. And I think Bo Nix tends to get locked into his number one receiver and he's going to force the ball. But 24 for 31 in every decade is good quarterback play. I'm not saying mvp, but I now that Herbert has a legit coach. If I said to you these are the five best quarterbacks in the world, Mahomes, Allen, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert. If I just said you get five in the world, those are my five. Are they yours?
- [53:22]
John Middlekoff
Yeah. I mean, there's not anyone in the NFL that wouldn't pick those five. They have clearly separated. And the crazy thing is that if you were picking quarterbacks, we wouldn't even get to the nfc. And these guys like, listen, Bo Nix, he hit the awesome deep bomb for 8:70 yards and he hit the incredible fourth down play. But for the most part, he was not. They weren't sustaining drives. That's right.
- [53:45]
JPMorgan Chase
That's right.
- [53:46]
John Middlekoff
And Burrow is playing. I mean, it's as good of quarterback play as you can have now. He's got Jamar Chase is good of.
- [53:53]
JPMorgan Chase
A wife, but they're all line. Their old line is bottom 10 in the league easily, you know.
- [53:58]
John Middlekoff
You know who he reminds me of? You watch like Sam plays more like Josh and Mahomes, where they are quick to scramble to throw.
- [54:05]
JPMorgan Chase
Yep.
- [54:05]
John Middlekoff
Joe Burrow actually plays a lot more like Andrew Luck. Where part of the reason he gets hit a lot is he stays in the pocket to the last possible. It's a very old school characteristic. Philip Rivers used to play like this. Now he didn't have the arm of those guys but they would wait for the last second to get their guy that extra step and throw the ball. Most guys half the league doesn't want to get touched so they move because they don't want to get hit. Joe is taking some of these hits because he's an old school pocket quarterback. I mean Joe Burrow would have thrived in like the 70. Now he gets absolutely destroyed now his offensive lines bad and he holds onto the ball to the last possible second which I admire but his the way he's played this year. And listen they're going to come up short because I even saw that the. They don't even. I think the Dolphins. If Denver were to lose and the Dolphins win, don't quote me on this but I'm pretty sure they would be in. Yeah, they Dolphins to lose to. Yeah, they lost a game Colin where he threw five touchdowns against the Ravens the first time they played him where they had multiple double digit leads in the fourth quarter.
- [55:08]
JPMorgan Chase
It's like you know they lost to the Patriots in week one or they wouldn't be in this position.
- [55:13]
John Middlekoff
So it's like their defense halfway even yesterday's not great. But it was so bad at points in time earlier this year.
- [55:20]
JPMorgan Chase
No, I mean Denver has components to a playoff team if you think about it. Hall of Fame coach, elite left tackle, best corner arguably in the game. One great weapon and an elite pass rusher. That's mostly John. The six checks boxes now Quarterback Bo is a B to a B minus right now. If, if, if this team, if Bo had one year in, I might go.
- [55:46]
John Middlekoff
C depending on the, you know, C plus stretches.
- [55:49]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah but if you look at what wins in this league, it's basically coach, quarterback, left tackle, one to two weapons, at least one good cover corner. That's why the Rams can't win. The Rams just don't have an elite. The Rams are going to draft a corner one or two. They have to. But when I look at Denver, Cincinnati is one great quarterback, a good edge rusher and one great weapon. I don't even know if Zach Taylor's it. I don't like his clock. Management at the end of the game was atrocious.
- [56:20]
John Middlekoff
It was crazy. I, I can't believe that he wouldn't kneel the ball. I didn't get it when the guy got hurt and they have to blow the timeout and Denver gets it back. But if you just kneel again, you give a rookie quarterback 40 seconds on the road to get in the field goal range.
- [56:33]
JPMorgan Chase
That's pretty hard with no timeouts because they would have had college. Yeah.
- [56:37]
John Middlekoff
So it's like here's what I would say about Bo Nix to defend him. Of all the rookies, this guy's on the road. Cincinnati after Christmas their season on the line against one of the best players we've seen in recent memory. Like that's, that's a tough. That's a real game. Caleb hasn't played in a real game. They've lost 10 straight games. None of his games matter. You know Drake may nothing he does really matters beside their health. So it's like Bo Nix is playing in real series. Like there are real stakes. Right. He's playing to get into the playoffs and like between the Chargers and Denver would you lean the Chargers are more likely to win a playoff game just because they got a better quarterback.
- [57:14]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes. Yeah. I think Burrow is the only great quarterback that won't make the playoffs. I think in fact I did this John thinking of you. I did this today. So I thought about this is my. I have seven teams that I would call the trophy class that can get to a Super Bowl. Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, Green Bay, Philly and I put Minnesota in today. Green Bay mini it's doubtful but I do think depending on environment where they're playing in the matchup I think there are three teams that can win games but are missing something. Chargers, Rams and potentially Pittsburgh. If they got in Pittsburgh's defense could win a game if they face the right quarterback. Rams are very puka reliant and I do feel like the chargers in the AFC you got to score 27 points in some of these games. I mean if JK Dobbins isn't available it gets really limited. And then I think there's four or five teams that probably can't win a playoff game. Denver or Cincy, Washington, Houston, Atlanta or Tampa. Tampa maybe. But I just feel like they earn their the spot but I just don't trust them. Any of those you disagree with?
- [58:30]
John Middlekoff
I think Pittsburgh's one and done okay as it's. As it's aiming up like they're going to play. They play Cincinnati next week. I don't know about you. I like Cincinnati and they're going to play Baltimore in the first round. I'm going to take Baltimore.
- [58:42]
JPMorgan Chase
Okay.
- [58:42]
John Middlekoff
I think they are a shell of what they were when they were 10 and three injuries. Russell's coming back to earth a little bit. I think Minnesota is pretty real and we'll see Detroit, maybe they're a little healthier tomorrow. We'll see who plays. But then they're playing Minnesota next week, which even though it's not like a winner, get into the playoffs to me, if that's for the number one seed. Yeah, I would put that, I'd put that Sunday night over like winner of the division, Seattle Rams. I would go Minnesota, Detroit.
- [59:11]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [59:12]
John Middlekoff
I kind of like Minnesota next week, Colin, you know, especially if Detroit still got injuries. Now Detroit's offense is still awesome, but defensively the amount of guys they're missing, if Jared Goff just has an off quarter against the way this Minnesota, plus they get that extra day arrest. If you tell me Minnesota like to me Detroit with their injuries, if you told me they were healthy and they had the number one seed, I would pick them to win the nfc. But with their injuries, if they're not the number one seed, even if they were, I think they could be beat. To me, if Minnesota is the number one seed, I think they're favorite in every game they play. You know, whether they play the Eagles, the Packers.
- [59:48]
JPMorgan Chase
Wow.
- [59:49]
John Middlekoff
The Rams are a good example of last year. Remember how much momentum and how well they were playing going into the playoffs?
- [59:54]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [59:54]
John Middlekoff
Like Detroit, this is going to be a tough first round game. And it was. This team like them is winning a bunch of games down the stretch. They look like shit. And maybe Cooper Cups gotten old. Like you said, if, if Puka doesn't go for 12 and 150, they're just off offensively. Luckily their defense is good.
- [60:11]
JPMorgan Chase
Well, let's talk about that.
- [60:12]
John Middlekoff
Last night I'm like, I done an awesome job. But they, they look, I can't pick them to win a playoff game the way they're playing.
- [60:18]
JPMorgan Chase
Rams 13, Arizona 9.
- [60:24]
John Middlekoff
I thought they were going to lose very. I had 100% confident Arizona was going to score.
- [60:28]
JPMorgan Chase
They only had 12 ran it in. They only had 12 first downs. The Rams had 12 first downs. So we talk about this game for a second. So it's really interesting and I can't quite figure this dilemma out. So generally I think you'd agree with me. The first half is a coach's half that you put stuff on paper, especially offensive coaches. First two series, Kevin O'Connell and Darnold, they're putting stuff on paper. And then in the second half, coaches matter, but you get 12 minutes in the locker room to really talk to your players and there's only so much you can digest. It's a bit of an adjustment, but a lot of times the better team, the better roster, the deeper roster wins the second half. That's why Philadelphia, so crappy in the first quarter, they just roll over. They just got too many good dudes. You got too many players and you can scheme up, you know, you're not going to beat like Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo in a short week when you can't. You don't get extra days to coach or install things. They're just. I mean, you see these teams like Kansas City and Baltimore played three games in 11 days. They went 3, 0, dominated. You can't. You just, you, you don't have time to coach up your inferior roster. And I look at the Rams and this is weird. They got time of possession, Arizona 36 minutes, Rams 23. Only 12 first downs. I can't figure this out. They are a. They are sluggish in every first half. And I watched this game and it was almost like Stafford's not warm, like he looks old. And then the second half, it's almost like he's a pitcher that he needs to get to the fifth, the sixth inning. But as I watch him, I'm like, in the second half it just. He's more fluid, he's looser, he's letting it rip. But I think I can't blame McVay. They're healthy offensively. John Puka, Tyler Higby, Kyron Williams, O lines above average. I think some of it is. It's. I think Stafford looks old in first halfs.
- [62:20]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, well, I think Cooper Cup's gotten really old too. I mean, essentially he's a blocker now.
- [62:25]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [62:25]
John Middlekoff
And he's had an incredible career and he was a badass. But it feels like it's over. Stafford, I think there was a stretch last year where he threw a bunch of picks for like a four or five game. He is, he is leading touchdown drives where he could have thrown three picks on him going through guys hands. And he is, he did that in the Niners game. He did that yesterday. If you remove the Bills game where they scored like 100 points, they were perfect. They played the Saints. That thing was a slug fest till the end. I think it was like 7, 7 the majority of the game. The 49ers game was an embarrassment. They want. I'm just saying, for an offensive unit, last week against the jets was not very pretty and last night was pretty ugly. Like offensively they just have no rhythm. And like you say, it's like their coach has kind of proven he knows what he's doing. And you're watching Stafford play, he definitely looks a little older. He just, when he gets in that mode of throwing it to other guys, I don't know if he gets a little off kilter, but he has a lot of passes I feel over the month. Luckily throws hard that are just going and those guys play defense for a reason. If Puka was playing defense, the guy he's throwing, he would have had 10 picks for the last month. Well, and they've gotten lucky. They've dropped a ton.
- [63:32]
JPMorgan Chase
It's, it's a really, it's a one person receiving crew. Tutu Atwell was a bust for the first several years. He gives you about a catch a game. Tyler Johnson's a bounce around the league guy. Robinson, I think it was DeMarcus Robinson. You get about one big catch a week. Cooper looks washed. It is incredibly reliant on Pukinakua and so I to me they're obviously going to go draft an ex receiver. They need somebody up the sideline badly. They need another offensive tackle. They need a number one corner. I feel like they're a draft away from being a really serious, serious team. They're just doing it now with McVeigh's coaching Stafford second half and Pukinakua and I and I do love the defense but in fairness these kids are all young. I mean everybody's a rookie or a second year player. They're just there's no age on this defense at all.
- [64:24]
John Middlekoff
I also think these last two years are incredible additions to McVay's resume. Like Andy Reid's resume isn't all super bowl. So it's a lot of like, well he went 12 and 5 with Jeff Garcia one year in Philadelphia. Like when you do things last year 1 and 4 or last year 3 and 6, this year 1 and 4 and to be win the division more than likely back to back years is just an awesome job with a bunch of young guys on defense and like you said and listen, you get credit for the third round pick but they're lucky that Puka is like a top five wide receiver. Imagine if he had just been okay. They would be in major trouble.
- [64:58]
JPMorgan Chase
Okay, so I've been right on Darnold. I got to take a wrong on this. I was always a defender on Kyler Murray because I thought he was, I thought he was a better version talent wise of Russell Wilson. I thought he was more elusive and threw A better ball. He is historically small. He's five, eight and a half. He's, he looks so if you take the sideline shot when he's in the pocket sometimes you get the sideline shot. You can't see him. I mean he's smaller than TUA significantly But in the last six games and this is post Thanksgiving football is big boy football. Five touchdowns, eight picks and a passer rating in the 70s and he's got. McBride is an all world, he's going to be a 10 time all pro tight end. Harrison is more than capable. Connor's an excellent running back. The O lines okay. Not great but okay. This is not a franchise that's bankrupt of offensive talent. There's players here and you know what? I think work ethic catches up to you. You can go so long on talent but John, I've always believed this. Kobe Bryant outworked people. MJ outworked people. There's a lot of guys in this league, lack of work ethic. Curry is a workaholic, Giannis Kyler Murray's not. And I've got it pretty connected. And the truth is it's caught up to him is that the really good defensive coaches, this league punishes you. I mean you can only coach 20 hours in college. You can just get away with being talented. You can't in the NFL. And I, I said this two weeks in a row. I like Kyler, he has a market. If you got him the right team, I think Arizona is going to have a discussion to see if they can move him. I really do.
- [66:43]
John Middlekoff
To me, my takeaway last night was I would ride it out another year and just keep building up the team. But if you are able to unload him for anything of value, I think you could justify it. I mean he has been a turnover machine down the stretch. Now on the flip side I'd go is this team even that good? I mean like you said they do have some offensive pieces but defensively the casual football fans beside Buddha Baker not going to be able to name a guy. I think the coach has done a really good job to just have them in position all year. I do think it's hard. I do wonder if his market, like would you just get rid of them for like a third round pick. I think you're better off just keeping them. Well now if you could get a high value like who else are you? Okay, so what else are you doing?
- [67:24]
JPMorgan Chase
I've made this argument, I think this year you can get a number one for Garrett Wilson, the Jets. Why It's a bad draft. It's a really weak draft. I think, I think Kyler Murray last year you're not getting much Kyler Murray Next year you may not get much Kyler Murray in this draft. I think you can get a number one. I really do. There's nothing, I mean, listen, every year we have seven teams that need a quarterback. There's Cam, who will play immediately, and Shadour will play immediately. There's not another college quarterback that can play. And if the Vikings franchise Darnold, it's Aaron Cousins. I mean, to me, Kyler's going to have a market.
- [68:01]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, he definitely would have a market. I don't know if you get a one because all the crappy teams that need quarterbacks are all drafted high. So would you trade like the 9th pick if you're the Raiders for him? I think you would. You know, if you just need to kind of get a little spark in your organization, would you just give your second round pick right or something? And if you're them, is it just time to pivot off this situation? The irony about last night, I thought was one of his better games. Now he did throw, you know, the bomb pick that was maybe a foot too high for Marvin Harrison and a great play in the last play. It just, I mean, a freaky, unlucky play by both guys.
- [68:34]
JPMorgan Chase
Right?
- [68:35]
John Middlekoff
I, I honestly, here's what I will say about him. I had full confidence that he was going to lead him on, that they were going to score a touchdown. I was like, the Rams are going to lose this game. And I thought how he was going to score was one of his classic scrambles. Everyone's in the back of the end zone, he runs it right in. And when they threw that pick, you're like, God, that has to be deflating because they had him right against the rope. But that's kind of been his defining characteristic, I would say this last month of he has just had, I mean, turnovers have been a huge part of his game. And it's not like he's throwing up three or four touchdowns. That's the one thing with Sam Darnold. Like he had the pick today, but he also threw three sweet touchdowns.
- [69:10]
JPMorgan Chase
Well, here's the other thing. If you're Arizona, he won't age well. He's, he's not a quarterback that's going to age well because he, like Steph Curry, ages well because he'll dribble and shoot forever. Certain guys like Russell Westbrook's age poorly because he's hyper. Athletic. Cam Newton age poorly because he was. He was not pre snap. Cam was about just sheer talent. Big Ben, I thought age very quickly. Kyler's going to age quickly. By the way, how many times in that game did he face pressure? That dude does not want to get hit. Kyler, you can. He'll trip over his own feet like he doesn't want to get hit. I had, I had a pass rusher three years ago. Tell me. He said, he goes, I played Kyler Murray. He said, I've never played against the quarterback. This is an elite pass rusher. He goes off the air. He goes, I've never played against a guy. He said. He, he winces when you hit him. Like he he's a baseball player. He doesn't like to get hit at all. Some guys like Burroughs like, eh, it's part of it. Darnold. I don't care. Thursday Night Football is on. It's only on Prime Video. Best season yet. Packed with big rivalries and even bigger stars. Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreak, Kaylee Hartung. Every week, games you can't miss. Coverage begins at 7 Eastern with football's best party. TNF tonight. Thursday night Football tonight. If you're not a Prime member, no problem. Sign up. 30 day free trial. Cancel anytime. Thursday Night Football and it's on. Prime Video restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.
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- [74:49]
JPMorgan Chase
So I've been talking about this for two weeks. Nine teams right now have four wins or fewer. Less than half of that last year. Four this year it's almost NBA. Like there is a lot of bad football. It is atrocious. We also have three, 13 win teams. So the top is bigger and the bottom's huge. Is it a one off or is it the reality now of two things? The league is now so quarterback centric that again Burrow is the only good quarterback elite quarterback that's not going to make the playoffs. If you have one, you get in. And Cincinnati may still but if you have one, you get in. I mean go look, I went, I'm going to go 7 for 8. I think potentially in my division picks. Why? Because I took the best quarterbacks. It's never been easier. And because of every owner's a billionaire, there's more chaos. And ownership, they're more impulsive, they fire people quicker which creates more chaos. So the bad organizations are worse. You know, like the Giants have been bad for six years now. They're. I mean it's despite today it's like, oh my God, this is embarrassing. Chicago's embarrassing. I don't think it's a one off. I think we're going to have a larger bottom because owners are getting wealthier. Wealthier. Writing $48 million to get coaches off the payroll as a rounding error. You used to just stick it out. What do you make of this massive bottom tier now?
- [76:14]
John Middlekoff
I feel like for the last couple decades the quarterback thing has been pretty true. You know, I think you've been able to get away with it in the 80s and 90s if you built up your team. But I think that's been a pretty consistent theme. Like the shitty teams don't have a quarterback. That's why they're drafting high. I think the money aspect of it and the ability to fire whoever and I think on the flip side, you have coaches and executives doing everything humanly possible for power. And I would imagine the league's always been relatively political. But when there is this much money on the line to be a general manager and pay 5. I mean how many gigs in America pay W2 jobs pay $5 million? An assistant coach as a coordinator makes 2, $3 million. They're not the decision maker. They're not near the top of the org Chart, they're way down. They don't have any responsibility really beside calling the plays in terms of when shit hits the fan. So I think you have a lot of like, I think it's much more difficult. We talk about this a lot with players, you know, building a team. And I think young people naturally kind of gravitate toward each other and good teams, like everyone's kind of friends. I think coaching is just so corporate. Everyone's trying to take out each other. You can't trust anybody. I think the league, the amount of money that has come in for front office and coaching has made this completely separate from a lot of politicians in the. Just because you work in the NFL. And I wasn't there long, but I always had this aspect, like once you get there, everyone's such a high level guy. It's just not the case. Right. And then the longer I've been around this, knowing a bunch of people with a bunch of teams, you hear these stories. It's just like any industry, when there's a lot of money, the cream will always separate. But people can still make a lot of money being shitty. And how often do we see, I mean, the Atlanta Falcons are about to play like McKay runs Arthur Blank's trust, you know, and he like runs the football. You know, it becomes like these family businesses. But these are billion dollar businesses. Most family. I've had some family business, like close personal friends that run family businesses and got bought out for, let's say 20, $30 million. Like that's an American success story. They built this business, they sold it for 30, 40 million dollars. These people have businesses that are worth not a billion. We're talking like six, seven. If Mark Davis put the Raiders for sale, I mean, could he get eight? Could he get nine? I mean, how many companies in America are worth this much money? And the Raiders are a good example. They've always had these people that like leech their way in because it's just like a money train. I think it's hard for some of these owners. And we look at all the bad teams, it's all these owners that are listening to the wrong people. Yeah, but you know who Steve Bushotti listens to? DA Costa, Ozzie and Harbaugh. You know who the Yorks listen to? John and Kyle. It's like, I think the Chiefs, Andy and Veach are very simple. They operate like a small business. These others start operating like Fortune 500 companies where I want it on the board of directors. I got an idea for you. The kids are involved and it just becomes wackoville. And obviously because it's so public and it's a fun thing, it's why Kevin Warren. Kevin Warren has a seven figure job.
- [79:19]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [79:19]
John Middlekoff
But you know what, his job, no one cares. When he sells PSLs or sells the naming rights deal for hundreds of millions of dollars. No one will give a shit. But you know what people care about? Your third round pick?
- [79:30]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [79:30]
John Middlekoff
The offensive coordinator. And so when you can start getting involved with that. And I think that has permeated all over the league or at least you know, all these crappy teams and I think they struggle with that. And these owners have money, everyone's just trying to leech on because the money right now is, I mean it's like outrageous. I mean it's, it's crazy. If you could bring back Lamar Hunt and Al Davis and Eddie DeBartolo and I would have told these guys in the 80s what this would become. And no one could have foreseen what it has become. I mean we've seen it come in the last decade, but 40 years, when I was a kid, football, I mean, salary cap, one point in time, I think when it first started wasn't like 30, $40 million. Yeah, that was 30 years ago. John Madden was being paid $8 million, making more than like all the players.
- [80:15]
JPMorgan Chase
So I want to touch on a couple of college things. So Cam Ward and Shador Sanders in a very weak class are going to go one and two. Shador did not play terribly well against byu. They got run Cam Ward. I would have skipped the bowl game instead of play the first half, not play the second just because if I would have played poorly, I would have wanted to play the second half. I don't think it will affect. Listen, if you need a quarterback, you're going to draft. I don't think it has any effect on Cam Ward's draft status, do you?
- [80:46]
John Middlekoff
No, I pay zero. And I think most people in the NFL non playoff bowl games are pretty meaningless. Whether you want to play, whether you play, no one gives a shit. I would disagree. I don't think he's a lock to be the second pick by any means.
- [81:00]
JPMorgan Chase
Well, I think Shador and Cam will be the top two quarterbacks taken.
- [81:04]
John Middlekoff
Oh, gotcha, gotcha. I just don't know one and two. I think this draft is very up in the air. Unlike last year, was pretty clear, guys, quarterbacks were going high.
- [81:12]
JPMorgan Chase
So I think New England's got the number one pick. I think somebody will trade up to number one just out of fear. I Mean Tennessee.
- [81:20]
John Middlekoff
You know what I would do if I was them, Colin?
- [81:21]
JPMorgan Chase
What?
- [81:22]
John Middlekoff
Would you just take Travis Hunter and just try to get some positive momentum. He's a. Yeah, looks like a generational prospect.
- [81:27]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes, that's what I would do.
- [81:28]
John Middlekoff
Don't overthink it. Get the guy and just. Obviously you could make a trade back, but is it one of those times just take Travis Hunter and just move on and put a smile on everyone's face?
- [81:38]
JPMorgan Chase
Well, if I was, let's say for instance, the Giants, who are now third or fourth in the draft, wanted to move up and Tennessee is second. I could see both those team taking quarterbacks. I could. I could see New England saying, okay, we'll move back no later than third. No later than third. Especially if somebody moves up to take a quarterback. If there's one of these four or five teams like New Orleans could take a quarterback, Las Vegas has taken a quarterback, then I'd feel good. But I do think the player to take for New England is probably Travis Hunter. I think he's electric. This is a team for four years running, just doesn't have playmakers. He's a playmaker on both sides. I think Cam is the better athlete with a bigger arm and I think you could talk yourself into him being number one. He's got a little bit of an edge to him, I've been told. But, you know, whatever. Shedeur is more polished. I don't think either is an A prospect. I don't think. I don't think either one of them is Caleb Jaden Daniels. I don't think either one of them. I like throwing the ball as well as Michael Penix. How do you view him as a former NFL Sky? I think they're B plus prospects.
- [82:39]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I would say Cam is the physically. More physically gifted guy. Shador I think is the better player. But Shador has a little bit. And maybe it's just the team he was on, but we've seen this carry over for Caleb holds on the ball a little long.
- [82:54]
JPMorgan Chase
Yes.
- [82:55]
John Middlekoff
Now granted, I would too to try to wait for some of my wide receivers to get open. One thing I will say about Shador is over the course of his couple years in Colorado and I didn't watch much of byu. I had it on a second tv, but every time I looked up, he was getting killed. Yeah, he's tough. He can handle it. I think Cam Ward's grades are going to be all over the map. I think it's going to be. He's going to be a pretty fascinating prospect. I think when the dust settles, probably if I was a betting man, should door ends up going number one overall. Especially if New England, you know, obviously they're not going to take them, but you know, trades back a couple spots. I, I could see Cam Ward going anywhere from 2 to like 10. You know, I, I think he is going to be a polarizing prospect. I, I think Travis Hunter one and I'm sure you've heard this too consistent theme. We've seen some drafts recently with like the Panay Sewells and Jamar Chases and Micah Parsons and just some elite players draft in the top 15. I don't think this draft's viewed as like hall of Famers everywhere. No, I've been told you could be drafted at 18 and get the same player. The dude that drafts at four gets even. Last year like it was pretty clear at the top. A lot of good players. This draft is not viewed like that at all. I mean there's not left tackle that I don't think anyone views as like Lane Johnson.
- [84:06]
JPMorgan Chase
My favorite player, my can't miss player is not Travis Hunter because I think if he comes in and wants to be a receiver, but he's a better corner, it could go sideways. The best player I've seen in college football is Mason Graham, the defensive tackle for Michigan. I think he is a 10 year All Pro. I think Mason Graham's the best player. I think that receiver from Arizona, T. Mac McMillan is a can't bust player. I think the corner from Michigan, Will Johnson is not going to miss. I think he's really two of the three best players. I think even Kelvin Banks, the Texas tackle, I could see him coming in and just being okay. I think there's a lot of, I.
- [84:48]
John Middlekoff
Think there's a lot of LSU tackle too. I think people like them, but they don't love them.
- [84:53]
JPMorgan Chase
I think Travis Hunter, I mean I think Shedeur and Cam are as good as where they land. I think if Shador lands with a team like for instance, let's say Shador, the Raiders now with another win probably won't get him. And I don't think Telesco loves either one of these quarterbacks. I don't know that, but I just, just knowing, you know, that he drafted Herbert and what he looks for in terms of size and mobility is neither one of these guys to me feels like that. No, I. Mason Graham's the best player. Will Johnson the corner, Michigan T. Mac, the Arizona kid. I think it was a down year for the sec. I think we have to be Totally honest about this is Georgia now. I mean, Georgia doesn't have Carson back. I think they're very beatable. Jesus. USC beat 8 and 4, LSU and 8 and 4, Texas A and M. I mean, and everybody out here has Lincoln Riley getting whacked. It's like, I don't think the sec, I don't think it's your typical year. In fact, my two favorite players right now in college football in terms of talent are Caleb Downs for Ohio State and the receiver for Ohio State, Smith. Those to me are the.
- [85:59]
John Middlekoff
They're not even draft eligible.
- [86:01]
JPMorgan Chase
No. Yeah. I mean to me, if they were draft eligible, and I'm not joking when I say this, in a bad quarterback year, if you didn't need a quarterback like New England, they would take that wide receiver from Ohio State. And I think who's taking number two right now? Tennessee probably needs a quarterback. If a team didn't need a quarterback in this draft, I would take those two Ohio State players over every single player in this draft. I'm dead serious.
- [86:26]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I think Texas has a couple of players. Number 11, that's an underclassman, that's not eligible. I mean, I think some of their best players are not draft eligible. That's, you know, good thing. If you're Stark. I think the tight end at Penn State's pretty damn good.
- [86:39]
JPMorgan Chase
Waller.
- [86:39]
John Middlekoff
Tyler Warren or Warren?
- [86:41]
JPMorgan Chase
Warren. Tyler Warren. Yeah. Yeah.
- [86:42]
John Middlekoff
Number 44, he's. He's the real deal. I think one thing, if we look at, you know, we're big AFC west guys, Denver and the Chargers, they need a running back, right? Young running back. It is a great running back class.
- [86:55]
JPMorgan Chase
Listen, let me throw, let me throw one at you. And he'll probably be a fifth round running back and I don't want to sound like a homer. Woody Marks at USC is I. Today I went and looked at the top 20 running backs in this class. They had this kid at like 14 and I'm like, holy shit. He is the best running back USC has had. I'm serious, since Reggie. He is in a. He can catch, he can block, he can run. And they had him listed, I think 14th or 15th best running back in the. I'm glad you brought this up. It is the best running back draft I can remember in years.
- [87:35]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I mean that's the thing with, you know, obviously genty all time great season, but he's 58 and it's like, okay, you're going to take them pick 17 or 22 when you could just take your starting running back the following Round and get a corner or get a linebacker or get a better player. And that's where I think this. I was watching the Holiday Bowl, Syracuse, had a kid. I'm like, this guy's really good. Every team you watch Carolina, Washington.
- [88:02]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah.
- [88:03]
John Middlekoff
Every team just has an NFL back and they physically look it. They're just. Jack. Most of them are 210 to 220. They break tackles, they get downhill. This running back class, that's the one thing I've heard absolutely stacked with NFL, the Chargers and the Broncos. You watch both those two teams. I mean, I know Jim, but I even think Denver, they will take a running back on the second day in the second or third round and if they hit, that could change both those two offenses.
- [88:28]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah. Okay, so we're going to have great quarterfinal games. We'll make. We'll wrap it up with this. I'll take Penn State close over Boise State close. What say you?
- [88:38]
John Middlekoff
I like Penn State pretty big and I think they beat him by double digits.
- [88:42]
JPMorgan Chase
I'll take Texas over Arizona State comfortably. Couple of touchdowns.
- [88:47]
John Middlekoff
Yeah, I think that's a massive talent mismatch. Tough, tough draw for asu.
- [88:52]
JPMorgan Chase
I think Ohio State beats Oregon by about a touchdown. I don't know if the time off for a young Oregon team helped. I'll take the Buckeyes.
- [89:00]
John Middlekoff
I'm going to take Oregon here. I think everyone's going Ohio State. I think we're going to overreact a little bit. And listen, that game, they just got their ass kicked by Michigan. I think people are sleeping on Oregon. Best team, start to finish Rose Bowl. It's going to feel like, you know, the Rose bowl we all grew up on. I like Oregon in that game.
- [89:19]
JPMorgan Chase
Notre Dame, Georgia do it. I'm going to take Notre Dame.
- [89:23]
John Middlekoff
Same. Same.
- [89:25]
JPMorgan Chase
Yeah, I think it's. Yeah.
- [89:27]
John Middlekoff
Georgia hasn't been very good this year. I mean, for. For their standards. I mean, they have been a shell of what they've been. It's still good.
- [89:33]
JPMorgan Chase
But I think Notre Dame, explosive in the run game. You know, everybody's making fun of me. I like Riley Leonard. I think he's cleaned his act up. I think he's. I think he came there and he was raw. I don't think he's as raw. I think he's going to get drafted in the fourth or fifth round in the NFL this year. It's a very weak quarterback draft. I think Riley Leonard will go somewhere, but, you know, you don't have to have a great quarterback. I'm not a huge Ewers fan. I'm not a big Will Howard fan. I think Dylan Gabriel's good not an NFL quarterback. I think Riley Leonard's good enough to win a national championship. I do.
- [90:12]
John Middlekoff
Yeah. I actually think Penn State, I think Aller and that team, I think Notre Dame and Penn State are very similar. They're going to run the ball down your throat and play defense and if their quarterbacks just play solid, I think they can both those two teams can win this whole thing where most people I think are going to pick Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, but I think people are sleeping on Notre Dame and Penn State running the ball defense historically that wins in the NFL. Little different. These games are all neutral site nice you know weather which I would say neutralizes their strength. But I think Pence I I, I could see Penn State going on a little run here.
- [90:45]
JPMorgan Chase
I would love it. I would talk about the draft Carter, that rush in they have, that dude can play. He's a top six or seven player. Yeah, he's really good. All right. John Mendelkoff, the former NFL scout. His podcast is three and out. Hardest working guy in this business as always, buddy. Great talking to you.
- [91:00]
John Middlekoff
See you later this week.
- [91:03]
JPMorgan Chase
The Volume.
- [91:07]
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