The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Darnold Is Super Bowl Bound, Sean Payton’s Huge Mistake, NFC Is The Superior Conference, Mike McCarthy Lands Steelers Job
Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Colin Cowherd | Guest: John Middlekauff

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives deep into a defining NFC Championship game featuring the Seattle Seahawks and the LA Rams, with Colin and John analyzing Sam Darnold's breakthrough performance, the epic nature of the game, the coaching decisions that shaped it, and broader NFL storylines—including the Super Bowl matchup (Seahawks vs. Patriots), Sean Payton's critical mistake, the NFC's dominance, and Mike McCarthy’s hiring by the Steelers. The hosts deliver sharp, energetic breakdowns, notable stats, and what these moments mean for the league's power structure.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. NFC Championship—Instant Classic: Seahawks vs. Rams

• Match Recap & Atmosphere

  • "One a top fiver of all time I think I've seen in the NFL. And there are just so many storylines. Sam Darnold, doubters. Not much left. He was sensational. So was Matt Stafford." – Colin (03:09)
  • Both offenses delivered at an elite level, especially in a playoff atmosphere compared to a heavyweight boxing showdown.
  • Seattle beats the Rams 31-27 in a game shaped by explosive plays and a critical Rams’ special teams mistake.
  • Seahawks leaned on both a dynamic passing attack and hard-nosed running; Rams countered with Stafford’s precision and resilient offense.

• Darnold’s Breakthrough Performance

  • "If you told me at the beginning of the day that Sam Darnold is going to throw three touchdowns and almost throw for 350 yards, I would have said Seattle won this game by 15 points." – John (04:50)
  • Darnold: 25-36, 340+ yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs—arguably the best game of his career given the stakes.
  • Resilience under pressure and playing "smart" (taking sacks rather than risky throws) was a major talking point.
  • Darnold’s oblique injury makes the performance even more impressive. "Darnold's doing this... Got to the Super Bowl with an oblique injury, which... they're brutal." – Colin (13:52)

• Comparison with Past Quarterbacks

  • Colin likens Darnold to Andrew Luck—described as more "explosive than surgical" (10:34).
  • The redemption narrative: Darnold, after being considered a flop with the Jets, now the winningest QB in the NFL since retaking a starting role with Carolina in 2023: "Four different teams, four different coaches, four different coordinators... Sam Darnold's the winningest quarterback in the league since that Nov. 27 in Carolina." – Colin (10:34)

• Stafford and Rams Offensive Execution

  • "Matt Stafford... best pure pocket passer without mobility. Stafford arguably the best coach, the deepest tight end group. Two excellent running backs... The best receiver right now is either JSN or Puka." – Colin (06:12)
  • Puka Nacua and JSN combine for 300+ yards, described as "Jerry Rice meets Michael Irvin." – John (06:34)
  • The Rams’ lack of defensive weaknesses and strong defensive front contrasted with their special teams vulnerability.

• Special Teams and Defensive Miscues

  • The Rams’ recurring special teams failures again prove decisive: "About every other game the special teams cost the Rams. And that, that, that fumble was it." – Colin (03:09)

2. Defining Moments and Coaching Decisions

• Game-Turning Plays

  • Discussion of 3rd and 4th down on a late Stafford drive; not giving Devante Adams a chance drew criticism: "I think you just got to go down swinging and give the guy a chance... I wish I just would have thrown it his way and just gave him a 50/50 ball." – John (05:18)
  • Refs, catch rules, and close calls ("the process of the catch")—notably the Cooper Kupp “catch/no catch” debate (15:05).

• Sam Darnold's Decision-Making

  • Praised for not forcing plays under pressure, especially on rollouts. “He just hit the ground. And that was, you know, we talked about Sam, the seeing ghost. It goes forever, playing smart.” – John (08:27)

• Seattle’s Identity

  • Aggressive and risk-tolerant, exemplified by throwing late and bucking NFL convention: "They're not doing what everybody else does..." – Colin (33:07)

• Rams’ Special Teams—Achilles Heel

  • Recurrent theme of special teams gaffes costing the Rams: blocked kicks, muffed punts, etc. "You could argue that unit cost them the Super Bowl, cost them the one seed, cost McVay another ring." – John (23:21)

3. State of the Leagues: NFC vs. AFC

• NFC’s Superiority

  • Hosts argue the NFC was loaded compared to the AFC this year: "The NFC was the superior conference all year." – Colin (20:46)
  • Rams, despite a stacked, healthy roster and excellent play, still fell to Seattle.

• Seahawks’ and Rams’ Team Building Contrasts

  • Seattle’s youth, speed, and energy key to success. Second youngest team in the NFL, heavy on defensive line talent due to shrewd drafting.
  • The Rams’ top-heavy, expensive roster and lack of depth exposed by special teams.

4. Super Bowl Preview: Seahawks vs. Patriots & New England’s Road

• New England’s Under-the-Radar Run

  • Patriots have reached the Super Bowl despite a weak offensive line—impressive given the defensive quality faced: "The only unit in the game that to me is below average is New England's offensive line, which speaks very well of Drake May and Mike Vrabel..." – Colin (20:46)

• Weather’s Role in the AFC Title Game

  • Critique of deciding playoff games in extreme snow, with Colin lamenting the effect on quality and outcome.
  • "I just thought it was a huge disappointment for the league that we're deciding Super Bowls and blizzards." – Colin (39:11)

• Vrabel and May Era Begins

  • Fast rebuild under new coach Mike Vrabel and rookie QB Drake May; parallels to past Patriots dynasties.
  • "Vrabel, he'd be the first guy to ever win a Super Bowl as a player with the team and then coach that same team and win a Super Bowl." – John (43:33)

5. Sean Payton’s Costly AFC Title Game Decision (Denver vs. Patriots)

• 4th Down Decision Under Fire
  • Payton’s call to go for it instead of taking field goal to go up 10-0, with a backup QB and in adverse conditions, heavily criticized:
  • "Analytically I just disagree with this... when you get to the playoffs, I want points." – Colin (34:23)
  • John echoes: in low-scoring, playoff football, even early, “field goals matter”—especially with backup QBs and bad weather (35:25).

6. Mike McCarthy Hired by the Steelers

• Analysis & Fit

  • "McCarthy to me is an offensive Mike Tomlin. He feels like Pittsburgh. He’ll win games... but when they face a really well-coached team with a good quarterback, you’ll feel like you have the second best coach." – Colin (49:00)
  • Steelers ownership prioritizes stability and competitiveness over long-term resets or “tanking.”
  • Hiring signals the Steelers’ commitment to always contend, even if upside is limited—“Mike McCarthy represents, at minimum, stability of competing and at least giving us a chance to maintain what Tomlin has done." – John (50:21)

• Roster Contrasts & Next Steps

  • Steelers’ challenge: need to shift resources from high-priced defense to offensive rebuild—"They have to switch the money from the defense to the offensive side. So they've had the highest paid defense four years in a row." – Colin (53:17)
  • McCarthy’s career resume, despite a branding problem, stacks up with Harbaugh and Tomlin in regular season and playoff appearances.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Darnold's Redemption:

• "Four different teams, four different coaches, four different coordinators, four different rosters. Sam Darnold's the winningest quarterback in the league since that Nov. 27 in Carolina." – Colin (10:34)
• "If Sam's going to play like he just played for three hours, Seattle's winning the Super Bowl." – John (12:06)

On Game Turning Point:

• "A mistake—these offenses were going to make you pay. Darnold to me gets credit on the sacks because... when you just hit the ground... those plays saved the game." – John (08:27)

On the Darnold-Luck Comparison:

• "He's more explosive than surgical. Like, that's what he is. Some guys are surgical. Cam Newton was more explosive than surgical. That's Sam." – Colin (10:34)

On Rams’ Special Teams:

• "You could argue that unit cost them the Super Bowl, cost them the one seed, cost McVay another ring..." – John (23:21)

On Coaching Decisions:

• "I think you just got to go down swinging and give the guy (Devante Adams) a chance..." – John (05:18)
• "Analytically I just disagree with this... when you get to the playoffs, I want points." – Colin (34:23)

On the AFC Title Game Weather:

• "I've never seen a half of football that washed out by weather... I just thought it was a huge disappointment for the league that we're deciding Super Bowls and blizzards." – Colin (39:11)

On Mike McCarthy & Steelers:

• "McCarthy to me is an offensive Mike Tomlin. He feels like Pittsburgh. He'll win games, he'll be loose. When they face a really well-coached team with a good quarterback, you'll feel like you have the second best coach." – Colin (49:00)
• "This was a situation where I went, of course they hired him... They want no part of the tanking teams. They don’t ever want to have a season like the Jets." – John (50:21)

Important Timestamps

• 03:09–06:12: Game-of-the-year breakdown, Darnold/Stafford praise
• 08:27–10:34: Darnold’s decision-making, stats, career turnaround
• 13:17–15:05: Darnold criticism, defining moment for his reputation
• 20:46–23:21: Rams' defeat despite stacked roster; NFC's superiority
• 33:04–36:00: Seahawks’ identity, aggressive play, home-field edge, coaching
• 34:23–38:37: AFC Championship—weather’s impact, Sean Payton’s field goal blunder debated
• 43:30–45:02: Vrabel’s historic turnaround, Patriots’ Super Bowl path
• 49:00–57:01: Mike McCarthy hired by Steelers—analysis, pros/cons, organization philosophy

Episode Tone

Colin and John maintain their trademark energy: a mix of analytical, opinionated, occasionally irreverent, but always grounded in deep football acumen. They go beyond stats to dissect the layers of strategy, psychology, and franchise philosophy shaping the NFL in 2026.

Summary

If you missed this episode, you missed a spirited and thorough breakdown of why Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are Super Bowl favorites, the pitfalls Rams face despite star power, why the NFC is on top, and the coached-to-win but risk-averse direction of the Steelers under McCarthy. Peppered with strong opinions, rich stats, and inside perspective, this episode is a must-listen for fans wanting to unpack the NFL’s evolving landscape.