The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Jan 15, 2026)

Episode: Indiana vs. Miami Preview, NIL Is Hurting SEC Powerhouses, Will Kiffin Win Titles?
Guest: Josh Pate (Host, Josh Pate College Football Show)
Host: Colin Cowherd

Episode Overview

In this episode, Colin Cowherd and college football analyst Josh Pate dive deep into the upcoming Indiana vs. Miami national championship game; analyze the evolving landscape of college football, focusing on the effects of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) and the transfer portal; debate whether classic SEC powers can keep up; and explore the future of figures like Lane Kiffin in elite coaching roles. The conversation mixes X’s and O’s with candid commentary on how money, recruiting, and modern pressures are reshaping the sport.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Indiana vs. Miami National Championship Preview

Timestamps: [02:08] – [04:48], [18:35] – [23:49]

• Game Breakdown/Predictions:

  • Both Colin and Josh predict a tightly contested, defensively driven game, counter to the expectation of an Indiana blowout.
  • Josh believes Miami's disruptive defense may finally force Indiana into uncomfortable situations:
    “Miami is the kind of team, both sides of the line of scrimmage, that at the very least could...disrupt. At the very least, you can make sure Fernando Mendoza doesn't get into that zone he got into against Oregon.” (Josh Pate, 03:05)
  • Both take Miami against the spread; Josh even picks Miami for the outright upset.

• Players & Matchups:

  • Colin remarks on Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza’s efficiency and poise:
    “Nobody this side of the NFL was beating Indiana in that mode.” (Colin, 03:38)
  • Discussion of Miami QB Carson Beck’s experience versus Mendoza’s NFL-level arm talent.
  • Praise for Miami’s run defense and overall athleticism.
  • Miami’s “generational” talent, Tony, credited as a game-changer (no full name given).

• Big Game Experience:

  • Colin: “There is value in Carson Beck having been in this game three times. He's not Mendoz as a Sunday prospect. It's not close. But he's made big throws for Georgia in a couple of these puppies.” (Colin, 18:35)
  • Josh, however, doesn’t see Beck outdueling Mendoza head-to-head:
    “The nature of game that Miami needs to win this thing...is probably the kind of game where 150 yards does it for him, because it’s just a bunch of Mark Fletcher falling forward, complete brutality, street fight.” (Josh Pate, 20:11)

• On-Field Talent Observations:

  • Indiana’s athletic profile dismissed as underestimated: “If I put LSU jerseys on them, they would just easily pass for LSU. ...Most people just keep spouting off this stuff about they're less talented because they read that they're less talented.” (Josh Pate, 23:09)

Memorable Exchange:

• "When you have a great quarterback, like a Josh Allen, you can't overcoach him, just let him play." (Colin, 20:43)
• On Mendoza’s physical tools: “To the layperson, the ball's like a cannon coming out of his hand. ...He’s played his best football in the playoff.” (Josh Pate, 22:01)

2. Kurt Signetti’s Future & NFL Temptation

Timestamps: [04:48] – [06:29]

• Colin expresses doubt Signetti (Indiana HC) would leave for the NFL given the new administrative nature of college football and his secure position (“Mark Cuban money”).
• Josh agrees, noting mutual fit and lack of NFL rumors:
  “If you were to tell me blindly a major college football head coach is taking an NFL job in the next month...I would think more along the lines of Ryan Day or Lincoln or Kirby or someone like that...” (Josh Pate, 05:38)

3. NIL, Conference Realignment, and SEC Vulnerability

Timestamps: [06:29] – [09:32], [10:48] – [11:56]

• NIL as the Great Leveler:

  • Colin lists his “next 10 years” powerhouse programs, heavily favoring those with deep pockets (Texas, A&M, Notre Dame, Michigan, Oregon, Indiana via “Cuban and Signetti”, USC).
  • Raises concern about Georgia, LSU, Bama being consistently outbid for top talent as Texas and Oregon flex financial muscle.
  • Josh clarifies: Despite Atlanta’s corporate behemoths (“Coke, Delta”), that money isn’t flowing into UGA as expected:
    “That infrastructure, like that financial infrastructure in the greater Atlanta area, it has not kicked in at Georgia like I think they thought it would.” (Josh Pate, 08:16)

• Changing Dynamics:

  • Big Ten’s alumni base and geographical spread cited as a long-term advantage—graduates in high-earning cities nationwide.
  • Discussion about the possibility of Big Ten pulling away from SEC for a year due to a surge of elite QBs (Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, Underwood, etc.).
  • Josh posits Texas could shift sec dynamics if it becomes the flagship:
    “If Texas were to play to the potential of that payroll next year, the other one I wonder about is Alabama is going to have a kid named Keelan Russell who they think is going to be a superstar.” (Josh Pate, 10:48)

4. Lane Kiffin: Titles or Twitter Sideshow?

Timestamps: [11:56] – [14:36]

• Colin and Josh dissect whether Lane Kiffin—and coaches of his mold—can truly deliver championships at blue-blood programs (LSU, etc.):
  “Are we sure, Lane, LSU are giving...us titles? Are we sure about that?” (Colin, 12:43)

• Josh’s nuanced take: Kiffin’s value may be overestimated due to scarcity in coaching cycles; expectations should be managed:
  “I got no reason to think Lane Kiffin will ever level up from exactly what he's been...The detriment is when you place false expectations on the guy—he comes in and he's exactly who he's been, and you end up disappointed because he is who he is.” (Josh Pate, 13:18)

• Kiffin’s social media persona mismatched with his more subdued, serious in-person character: “If you’re going to consume Lane, it’s actually better to do it online. Lane is a better consumed and more easily consumed product online than he is in person.” (Josh Pate, 14:30)

5. NIL vs. Portal: What Needs Fixing Most?

Timestamps: [23:49] – [29:04]

• Colin worries the transfer portal and NIL have made college football messy, but sees most programs trending toward smarter, more selective spending:
  “We have spent way too much money on way too many guys that didn’t make an impact and they're going to spend it now on like rush end, star, receiver, quarterback. I kind of think it's all getting a little better.” (Colin, 27:05)

• Josh favors reforming NIL over the portal: “If you tweaked [NIL] and you made revenue sharing just the true sense of revenue sharing, you wouldn't have to worry about the portal as much...Freshman pay scales are smaller than sophomore...and if you heavily incentivize and backload revenue sharing for guys contingent that they remain on their roster, you don't have to legislate that they have to stay there.” (Josh Pate, 24:59)

• Reference to leading programs (Alabama, Georgia) focusing on high school recruiting, then nurturing and supplementing rather than chasing quick fixes via the portal.

• “That kind of college football,” Josh concludes, “I’m comfortable with.” (Josh Pate, 28:16)

Notable Quotes

• “Miami is the kind of team, both sides of the line of scrimmage, that at the very least could...disrupt. At the very least, you can make sure Fernando Mendoza doesn't get into that zone he got into against Oregon.”
  – Josh Pate [03:05]

• “There is value in Carson Beck having been in this game three times. He's not Mendoz as a Sunday prospect. It's not close. But he's made big throws for Georgia in a couple of these puppies.”
  – Colin [18:35]

• “If you’re going to consume Lane, it’s actually better to do it online. Lane is a better consumed and more easily consumed product online than he is in person.”
  – Josh Pate [14:30]

• “That infrastructure, like that financial infrastructure in the greater Atlanta area, it has not kicked in at Georgia like I think they thought it would.”
  – Josh Pate [08:16]

• “If I put LSU jerseys on them, they would just easily pass for LSU.”
  – Josh Pate [23:09]

Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | Key Points | |---------------|----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:08–04:48 | Indiana-Miami preview & picks | Both favor Miami to cover, discuss matchups, low scoring | | 04:48–06:29 | Signetti NFL talk | Why he won’t (and shouldn’t) bolt for the pros | | 06:29–09:32 | NIL’s impact on programs/power structure | Emerging Big Ten, Georgia/SEC doubts, alumni $ shifts | | 10:48–11:56 | Big Ten QB depth vs. SEC future | Big Ten QB advantage; Texas as SEC’s possible future | | 11:56–14:36 | Lane Kiffin at LSU; coaching expectations | Kiffin’s ceiling, social media presence vs. real persona | | 18:35–23:49 | Shane Mendoza vs. Beck; eye-test talent | Mendoza’s NFL tools; Indiana “passes for LSU” | | 23:49–29:04 | NIL & portal reform; evolution of strategies | NIL as real issue; blue-blood recruiting; model stabilizing|

Conclusion

This episode sharply dissects both the on-field and off-field factors shaping the college football landscape as the Indiana vs. Miami championship looms. With frank discussion on NIL's disruptions, uneven resource flows, and the escalating QB arms race, Colin and Josh lay out why the old SEC/blue-blood certainties are over, and what might come next. The episode is packed with predictive insights, memorable one-liners, and a clear-eyed assessment of where the sport is heading.