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The volume.
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All right, I may look a little different now. I'm wearing these new age headsets as Josh Pate. Josh Fate college football show on YouTube's getting all sorts of love and press from ESPN and all these big shot platforms. It's you know what we we knew a couple years ago at the volume we're like get more Josh Pate on our podcast. So let's start with this. Miami gets seven and a half against Indiana. I'm you know, it's almost like one of those was Saban, like you just. You would just take Saban side. They'll just beat somebody badly. I'm going to go the other way because I thought Indiana would handle Alabama. I called for a blowout and they, they'd handle Oregon. I think Miami will disrupt their offense a little bit. I think they're very disruptive. I think Indiana wins. I think it's kind of ugly and low scoring. But I don't see 30s and 40s for Indiana, do you?
C
No, I'm with you. I think we're. We're pretty solo in this car, but I'm with you. So I guess, Colin, what you're saying, and to further the point, what it all boils down to is number one, do you think Miami can play their best game because that's kind of required here. And then number two, do I think for the first time in seemingly forever, someone can at least stagger Indiana. Someone can at least make them throw something other than the fastball. Because like, if you think about it, everyone who's faced Indiana on the line of scrimmage, like, you think they got to deal with Indiana. I didn't really think Indiana, quote unquote, had to deal with Alabama or even had to deal with Oregon. For a personnel standpoint, like, they ended up having the edge there. Miami is the kind of team, both sides of the line of scrimmage, that at the very least could do that word you just used, disrupt. At the very least, you can make sure Fernando Mendoza doesn't get into that zone he got into against Oregon. Because like, I know you watch the same game as I did at some point. I don't really care if Oregon's turning the ball over, if Mendoza is making those kind of throws, if they're 11 of 14, whatever they were on third down. Nobody this side of the NFL was beating Indiana in that mode. So the other thing about them is they're so efficient offensively on third down. Cause it's always third and two. I don't ever feel like I see them in third and longs. And at the very least, Miami's run D is good enough, I think, to where they can force some of those third and longs. Not maybe that it's a moot point and he just hits him in Indiana rolls. I'm banking that you're right, though. I'm rolling with you. Not only did I take Miami to cover, I think if it's a dog fight kind of game in the fourth quarter, man, and that belt's within reach, I'm risky enough to roll the dice on Miami being able to grab the belt. So I actually took him to win the game outright.
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I am. I don't think Signetti should go to the NFL. And 10 years ago, I wouldn't have said that. But college football coach, now it's a lot of administrative stuff. You're not going to four high school games on a Friday. You're not. You're.
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You.
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What's my nil budget? Let's get 6 to 12 guys from the Portal. You do some high school stuff, but a lot of assistants can do that. So that's why I think Kyle Whittingham at Michigan. Oh, he'll be absolutely viable for four to five years. Absolutely. He doesn't have to know the local high school, you know, landscape. You can go buy weakness. So I think Signetti is a college guy. I think he's an Indiana guy. I don't think he's a ladder climber. He's got Mark Cuban money. Am I wrong on that?
C
No. And I hope you're right, too, because I don't ever like to see anybody leave for the NFL. I love college football. First and foremost. I think you're right. Certainly we learned he's not looking to leave anywhere in the college game, so the NFL will be the only viable path. I don't know in his heart of hearts how like, he views the Pittsburgh Steelers job. I don't even know if Pittsburgh would be interested, like, mutually. I don't know if there's anything there, but I kind of agree with you. Like, if you were to tell me blindly a major college football head coach is taking an NFL job in the next month, and I have no knowledge that's happening. But if you. If you rub the Magic 8 ball, you told me that's coming. I would think more along the lines of Ryan Day or Lincoln or Kirby or someone like that, like Bombshell out of nowhere. But those guys have, especially Kirby and Ryan have had their success. They've watched the landscape change. So I don't think he's in any hurry to leave.
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When, you know, I said, this week I did. It wasn't a very long segment, but I did a segment called top 10, next 10. And I said, now the Portal and the NIL are established. It's a bidding war. I said, here who I think over the next 10 years are the 10 programs of note. I said, Texas, Texas A and M. Texas Tech. It's oil money. Michigan. Notre Dame. Endowments are massive. Ohio State, because they're Ohio State. A lot of money. Oregon, Phil Knight money. Indiana because of Cuban and Signetti. And they've. That's a business school with a massive alumni. And then I said 10 to USC because I've watched them spend a fortune in the last year. They just bought the number one recruiting class. And I said, I don't know about Georgia. And the reason I said that was one. I've watched what happened to Alabama, quickly, now Georgia's from Atlanta. There's more money. You got Delta and Coca Cola corporations. But I said, Georgia's got 17 Fortune 500 companies. California 58, Texas 54. So. And I said, Georgia just lost their number one booster last year. They've lost five DBs in the portal. They got outbid for a quarterback by Vandy. There's this sense that, okay, we understand Bama is not a big state. And I'm like, I don't know. I don't know if Georgia can. I mean, A and M is going to poach him, Texas going to poach him, Notre Dame is going to poach him, and Texas Tech may poach Texas. What. Where is, where's the guarantee outside of Texas oil money that lsu, Bama and Georgia are in this playoff every year?
C
There is no guarantee. I think their hope is in that this cycle is temporary and we're kind of headed towards some frontier like I think the semi blind hope is. A lot of them look to the league office and just say, guys, you got to get this figured out. Like, this can't be our existence five years from now. Because you're right about Bama, you're right about lsu. Georgia is a little bit of a misnomer in my experience in the sec because everyone says Coke, everyone says Delta. Everyone looks like 40 or 50 miles to the west. They see Atlanta and they just assume a ton of money. And I've talked to people at Georgia about that and they. One of their biggest sort of internal gripes is, yeah, we're surrounded by all these big names, these big brands. They don't really kick in the way that we expected them to kick in when we sort of got to this new landscape. Now, it's not to say there's some poverty program struggling to rub two nickels together, but that infrastructure, like that financial infrastructure in the greater Atlanta area, it has not kicked in at Georgia like I think they thought it would. And then the other one is Kirby Smart's pretty old school in the way he thinks. Yeah, I, I just think there may be a little natural competitive resistance to leaning into that stuff, too.
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No, that. That's interesting. And you would know. You know, it's interesting because. And I kind of predicted this two years ago. I said the Big Ten has bigger schools, bigger alumni bases. I mean 55,000 people going to some of these Big Ten schools. And when you have that many kids and there's no jobs in the Midwest, they go to the coasts and make money. They go, I mean you go to la, it's Michigan grads everywhere. I mean you, I mean everywhere you go to the Northeast, it's Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan grads, Michigan State grads everywhere. North Northwestern grads are all over Chicago and Los Angeles. So and I, and I look at quarterback and what they're making. And next year the Big Ten has Dante Moore, he's coming back and Julian sand and Jordan Mayava and Underwood at Michigan. And I can assure you, you know this Indiana is going to go buy some really good quarterback. And so my take, you got Arch Manning at Texas and, and, but does the gap widen next year for one more year like sec, third straight year that I don't get in, do you think? For a year. Because the quarterback play is going to be so good in the Big Ten next year, does the gap widen for a year?
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I think it's possible. Here's the caveat to that. What if the very top of the SEC ends up being Texas? What if Texas just fulfills on their potential and like the peak of that SEC mountain is just higher. It kind of like the ac I'm not comparing the two but like the ACC this year, you would never really tout them as a power conference. But it just so happens the top of it was Miami and they're about to play for a national championship. Now I don't think anyone's beating their chest chanting ACC Monday night if Miami wins that thing. But if Texas were to play to the potential of that payroll next year, the other one I wonder about is Alabama is going to have a kid named Keelan Russell who they think is going to be a superstar. And if there's like a come out of nowhere quarterback. Yeah. In the sec, I think that would be where that happens. I don't know what Lane plus Sam Levitt is going to look like. So I do agree with you on, on the quarterback front, I tend to believe probably overall eight is equality of play edge Big Ten next year. The top, top, top of the sec. If it's like a Texas, I could see reclaiming that crown.
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Yeah, the, you know, the Lane Kiffin stuff is funny. He can't stay off X. You know, it's. I. One of the disadvantages, I've always said if I was competing with you or younger sportscasters, Nick Wright, is that I didn't grow up living on my phone. And I just don't like, I like watching games and not having a phone there. Like, I just like to watch the games and I'll take notes on a notepad. I'm very old school about that. And I, I look at Lane and part of me thinks Lane on the Internet's great. Lane on X is great. But I could see it, I could see it blowing up. Like, are we sure, Lane, LSU are giving. It's giving us titles? Are we sure about that?
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No, we're not. We're not sure about it at all. Look, it's kind of like if you look at the draft, any given year, you, you've got teams that are badly in need of quarterback. You're going to have a QB 1, 2, 3 in any draft. As you well know, there's some drafts where QB3 that year is better than the QB1 two years down the road. Right. I think about hiring cycles the same way Lane was HC1 in this last hiring cycle. Yeah. Does that really mean he compares to like when Urban was on the open market a generation ago? Not exactly. And so that's. It's not like a buyer beware, it's just a buyer be aware, I guess is the way I would put it about lsu because expectations correlate with pay grade in most businesses. This one's no different. So when you pay the guy 12 million or whatever they're paying him a year, you just expect, oh, he's going to level up. I got no reason to think Lane Kiffin will ever level up from exactly what he's been Now. Here's the. The detriment. The detriment is when you place false expectations on the guy and he comes in and he's exactly who he's been and, and you end up disappointed because he is who he is. Who does that really fall on? The reality is it'll fall on Lane Kiffin. But the truth of it is it should fall on someone who looked at someone and because we paid him a lot of money, expected them to be more than they had been in the past. But the other part of that, Colin, and the crazy part that you know, that I don't think most people know, is how different the Lane, this Lane Kiffin is versus the Lane Kiffin when you're sitting eye to eye with him. How different the personality is how different, how different the conversation is. It's just, it's really wild. And that's why I've always said if you're going to consume Lane, it's actually better to do it online. Lane is a better consumed and more easily consumed product online than he is in person.
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Let's go back to Miami, Indiana. So Carson Beck playing in his third Natty. I think Miami has a lot of, I mean Tony's obviously like generational. Like he doesn't even. Some of the catches are just one. Reaching behind himself against Old Miss was ridiculous. The way it works, and I'm guilty of this is if a guy isn't a big Sunday prospect, I'm like whatever. There is value in Carson Beck having been in this game three times. He's not Mendoz as a Sunday prospect. It's not close. But he's made big throws for George in a couple of these puppies. He's got good weapons, he's got big time NFL bodies up front. Do you give him any shot to actually outplay Mendoza in that game? One on one?
C
No. Like, like shot for shot? No, because remember the A and M game? I think no, not the A and M game, the Ohio State game. I thought he was a legitimate weapon for what he is. Yeah, for Miami and I look at the stat sheet and is, oh, 138 yards passing. But I legit just. I don't have overinflated expectations set for Carson Beck. So I thought that was a game in his wheelhouse and then you feel like his legs were a weapon and he had like 20 yards rushing or something like that. So he is certainly not going to make the wow throws that Fernando Mendoza made. I saw Mendoza for the first time in person for the Oregon game.
B
Oh, wild.
C
Pretty wild.
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Tell me.
C
Just like all the Sunday hype, it kind of, it makes you go, oh, I get it now when you watch him in person. So combine is going to be fun to watch with him, but I don't think so. But also, Colin, the nature of game that Miami needs to win this thing Monday night is probably the kind of game where 150 yards does it for him because it's just a bunch of Mark Fletcher falling forward, complete brutality, street fight. Winning teams probably run in 62 plays or something like that. Yeah, I think that's Carson Beck shot, man. If he's throwing the ball 40 times, it's probably not a good sign.
B
Yeah, Miami makes too many mistakes in my opinion. Too many penalties. They'll turn it over. They, you know, they're just there's there. It's almost like when you have a great quarterback, like a Josh Allen, you can't overcoach him, just let him play. And I feel like with Miami with all that talent, you got to let some of it just play. Indiana has a lot of three and four star guys in this next cycle, they're going to get some five star guys and Signetti is going to have that dilemma, which is sometimes you just got like Antonio Brown for the Steelers. He goes a little off script. Well, you can't defend him. Like the best corner in the league can't stay in front of him. So sometimes not the talent's ever a burden. But Miami's got so much speed and length and power, you just got to bake in some mistakes. I always say this with Caleb Williams. I'm not getting paralyzed by his completion percentage because there's some Paul Bunyan esque Josh Allen stuff. I want to go back to Mendoza. When you saw him in person, a buddy of mine, Tom Tesco, a former gm, he was leaning tua and then he went to the Rose bowl and watched Justin Herbert in person.
C
Yep.
B
And he's like, oh, he's not. That's different. Oh, he's 6 6. He's not like 6 5. He's 6 6. And he's making Wisconsin's best defense, like missing space. What was your first initial thought of Mendoza when you saw him?
C
But I mean, look, I'm not a quarterback coach or scout by any stretch, but it's to the layperson, the ball's like a cannon coming out of his hand. He's making a lot of far hash out throws, the typical NFL throws that you want to see made, a number of them. And that particular game I was partly on field, partly up in the press box. So you're getting every vantage point. And then the other thing is just think about this in general. You watched him throughout the playoff. How many times do you see a quarterback justifiably win the Heisman Trophy and then play better post winning the Heisman? Like he's played his best football in the playoff.
B
Yeah.
C
So. And then you. I don't, I don't care if this dude goes to Las Vegas. He'll order Uber eats six nights out of the week. Like there's not an ounce of character concern. So everything that you would want physically is there? I mean I like, I'm not saying I was hesitant on it. I just left more bought in.
B
Yeah. Is Indiana in person, Is Indiana's talent better than most people subscribe to watching on TV when you see it in person? Because when you hammer in Alabama and you're dominating Oregon twice in person is a little more impressive.
C
150%. Yes. To, to be honest, I said something to. There was a coach on the sideline. I said, hey, tell Me if you think I'm wrong. I think if I put LSU jerseys on them, they. They would just easily pass for lsu.
B
Okay.
C
And I'm not saying they have, like freak show athletes all over the place, but most people just keep spouting off this stuff about they're less talented because they read that they're less talented. It's not like someone's really gone A to Z eval of Indiana's roster. Now you can tell when TCU's on the field with Georgia, you can tell there's not that glaring disparity whatsoever with these guys. So, yeah, they absolutely passed the eyeball test.
B
Yeah, I like their wide receivers. I. That's where I really noticed. I think their wide receivers stretch the field. They're guys that go above and beyond to catch the ball. Mendoza. When you watch them throw to the end zone, it's never short. There's one guy can catch it. It's the Hoosier receiver. Always one guy that can catch it. Josh Pate hosted Josh Pate's college football show. I love this year of college football. I think the transfer portal is messy. I think the nil's getting. I mean, yeah, I don't like kids transferring five times. They always use this. You always hear this. Well, I mean, coaches, they leave all the time. They don't go six places in five years. Like, slow down. Secondly, my take, Josh, is coaches are different than players. My bosses at Fox get stock options. I don't get their bosses. I'm an employee. A college player is not a college coach. Coaches are administrators. They're responsible for the program. A wide receiver is responsible for catching the ball and keeping eligible in classes. So I. If you had to tweak one or the other portal or nil, which one concerns you more?
C
I think I would tweak nil if you really let me control the revenue sharing and then the pay structure. Because, like, I think what happens, whether you go CBA to achieve this or not, if you tweaked that and you made revenue sharing just the true sense of revenue sharing, you wouldn't have to worry about the portal as much if you structured it right. Colin, Very simple. Like rookie pay scales, freshman pay scales, in other words, for college, are smaller than sophomore. Pay scales are smaller than junior or smaller than senior. And if you heavily incentivize and backload revenue sharing for guys contingent that they remain on their roster, you don't have to legislate that they have to stay there. They just have all the incentive in the world to Only leave in the worst of cases. And then if you wanted to add in exemptions for if they lose their head coach, so be it. I got no problem with that. But if I were to change that, I don't think we would have this big outcry about the transfer portal because guys are only moving around right now to chase what they would be inclined to stay at their school to chase.
B
Yeah, it's interesting. I. I follow like USC is the program I prom. Everybody has a program or two they follow more. Right. Even broadcasters. And most of the guys that are leaving usc. The quarterback came back. Could have been a betting war. He wanted Lincoln Riley. They lost a couple of receivers to the NFL and then they went and bought one good receiver and hit on a couple of high school guys. Is that most of the guys that leave, I tend to think the core of your program, if they're productive, the school's taking care of them. It's like the third defensive lineman at Georgia who probably doesn't have the motor of the first two. Kirby Smart's tired of him and he's not getting a love and he's like, I'm going to go to. I'm going to go to Michigan State and be a star. Like I. The thing about the transfer portal is by outside of quarterback, where there are bidding wars for most players. I think. I think you mostly keep your core because I don't think it's like anything else. We all. You learn as you go.
C
Yep.
B
And I think USC has looked at it and thought, man, we have spent way too much money on way too many guys that didn't make an impact and they're going to spend it now on like rush end, star, receiver, quarterback. I kind of think it's all getting a little better. But the problem, Josh, is the stuff that you read about the big paydays freaks everybody out. I kind of think. I think it's kind of getting. I think it's coming to its conclusion of being the wild, wild West. That's my interpretation.
C
I agree on a couple of fronts. Okay. First off, just legislatively they're gonna figure something out. I don't know which which ramp they're gonna get off on, whether it's antitrust exemption or whether it's cba. They're gonna figure something out. Status quo will not remain. That's the first thing. The second thing is what you're talking about on more ground level, I agree with. And there are a couple of big experiments happening. You've mentioned one of these programs already in the sec, and that's Alabama and Georgia are both dead set on recruiting top five classes out of high school and then spending a vast majority of their nil money reinvesting in the guys they recruited.
B
Yeah.
C
And they're supplementing via the portal, and they're backfilling conditionally. Their blueprint is still very much based in high school recruiting. Now, we're still sort of on the frontier of figuring all this stuff out and figuring out what's the sweet spot, which way works. But one of the benefits, I think, of Indiana doing what they're doing right now is it feels like everyone's always chasing a model at any given point. In broadcast, in media, in sports, everyone's chasing a model. It was the Patriots for a long time. And so, like, there's one positive of Kurt Signetti doing what he's doing. I'm not saying anyone's about to duplicate what Indiana's done, but if there is a set of basic values and principles, you're trying to recruit them out of high school and reinvest in them and develop them, and I'm comfortable with that. That kind of college football.
B
Yeah, I saw that with the USC. They signed 34 high school kids. It was a massive class. All right, quick trip. What's the latest, buddy?
C
I just actually, I went there the other day, got a bunch of cold brew on tap because there's not one right in my backyard. Sometimes I'll overly load up on the cold brew, and I was literally drinking it out of this bottle here, so I didn't even plan it that way. They have fueled our tour the entire year. They let us go, courtesy of their fuel pumps and their cold brew on tap, to college football games coast to coast. It's been a really, really good partner, and they're about it, man. They speak college football fluently, just like we do. And it is a big blessing to have them along for the ride.
B
That's a blessing to have you as well, buddy. Congrats on all your success.
C
I appreciate it.
B
Go.
C
The volume.
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Qualifying credit required these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent support supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI this is an iHeart podcast.
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Episode: Indiana vs. Miami Preview, NIL Is Hurting SEC Powerhouses, Will Kiffin Win Titles?
Guest: Josh Pate (Host, Josh Pate College Football Show)
Host: Colin Cowherd
In this episode, Colin Cowherd and college football analyst Josh Pate dive deep into the upcoming Indiana vs. Miami national championship game; analyze the evolving landscape of college football, focusing on the effects of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) and the transfer portal; debate whether classic SEC powers can keep up; and explore the future of figures like Lane Kiffin in elite coaching roles. The conversation mixes X’s and O’s with candid commentary on how money, recruiting, and modern pressures are reshaping the sport.
Timestamps: [02:08] – [04:48], [18:35] – [23:49]
Game Breakdown/Predictions:
Players & Matchups:
Big Game Experience:
On-Field Talent Observations:
Memorable Exchange:
Timestamps: [04:48] – [06:29]
Timestamps: [06:29] – [09:32], [10:48] – [11:56]
NIL as the Great Leveler:
Changing Dynamics:
Timestamps: [11:56] – [14:36]
Colin and Josh dissect whether Lane Kiffin—and coaches of his mold—can truly deliver championships at blue-blood programs (LSU, etc.):
“Are we sure, Lane, LSU are giving...us titles? Are we sure about that?” (Colin, 12:43)
Josh’s nuanced take: Kiffin’s value may be overestimated due to scarcity in coaching cycles; expectations should be managed:
“I got no reason to think Lane Kiffin will ever level up from exactly what he's been...The detriment is when you place false expectations on the guy—he comes in and he's exactly who he's been, and you end up disappointed because he is who he is.” (Josh Pate, 13:18)
Kiffin’s social media persona mismatched with his more subdued, serious in-person character: “If you’re going to consume Lane, it’s actually better to do it online. Lane is a better consumed and more easily consumed product online than he is in person.” (Josh Pate, 14:30)
Timestamps: [23:49] – [29:04]
Colin worries the transfer portal and NIL have made college football messy, but sees most programs trending toward smarter, more selective spending:
“We have spent way too much money on way too many guys that didn’t make an impact and they're going to spend it now on like rush end, star, receiver, quarterback. I kind of think it's all getting a little better.” (Colin, 27:05)
Josh favors reforming NIL over the portal: “If you tweaked [NIL] and you made revenue sharing just the true sense of revenue sharing, you wouldn't have to worry about the portal as much...Freshman pay scales are smaller than sophomore...and if you heavily incentivize and backload revenue sharing for guys contingent that they remain on their roster, you don't have to legislate that they have to stay there.” (Josh Pate, 24:59)
Reference to leading programs (Alabama, Georgia) focusing on high school recruiting, then nurturing and supplementing rather than chasing quick fixes via the portal.
“That kind of college football,” Josh concludes, “I’m comfortable with.” (Josh Pate, 28:16)
“Miami is the kind of team, both sides of the line of scrimmage, that at the very least could...disrupt. At the very least, you can make sure Fernando Mendoza doesn't get into that zone he got into against Oregon.”
– Josh Pate [03:05]
“There is value in Carson Beck having been in this game three times. He's not Mendoz as a Sunday prospect. It's not close. But he's made big throws for Georgia in a couple of these puppies.”
– Colin [18:35]
“If you’re going to consume Lane, it’s actually better to do it online. Lane is a better consumed and more easily consumed product online than he is in person.”
– Josh Pate [14:30]
“That infrastructure, like that financial infrastructure in the greater Atlanta area, it has not kicked in at Georgia like I think they thought it would.”
– Josh Pate [08:16]
“If I put LSU jerseys on them, they would just easily pass for LSU.”
– Josh Pate [23:09]
| Timestamp | Segment | Key Points | |---------------|----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:08–04:48 | Indiana-Miami preview & picks | Both favor Miami to cover, discuss matchups, low scoring | | 04:48–06:29 | Signetti NFL talk | Why he won’t (and shouldn’t) bolt for the pros | | 06:29–09:32 | NIL’s impact on programs/power structure | Emerging Big Ten, Georgia/SEC doubts, alumni $ shifts | | 10:48–11:56 | Big Ten QB depth vs. SEC future | Big Ten QB advantage; Texas as SEC’s possible future | | 11:56–14:36 | Lane Kiffin at LSU; coaching expectations | Kiffin’s ceiling, social media presence vs. real persona | | 18:35–23:49 | Shane Mendoza vs. Beck; eye-test talent | Mendoza’s NFL tools; Indiana “passes for LSU” | | 23:49–29:04 | NIL & portal reform; evolution of strategies | NIL as real issue; blue-blood recruiting; model stabilizing|
This episode sharply dissects both the on-field and off-field factors shaping the college football landscape as the Indiana vs. Miami championship looms. With frank discussion on NIL's disruptions, uneven resource flows, and the escalating QB arms race, Colin and Josh lay out why the old SEC/blue-blood certainties are over, and what might come next. The episode is packed with predictive insights, memorable one-liners, and a clear-eyed assessment of where the sport is heading.