← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Colin Cowherd Podcast - Kevin Durant’s Future? Will Wemby Be Face Of The NBA? NFL Win Totals
00:50:35
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- [00:00]
Chris Mannix
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- [00:39]
Kevin O'Connor
Most valuable promotions and Netflix are putting on their first ever MMA fight, a triple main event. Fan favorite fighters go head to head live on Saturday, May 16. Main event. It's Ronda Rousey. She's back to shake up the world of combat sports with her first fight in nearly a decade. She's fighting against fellow women's MMA pioneer Gina Carano, who was one of the first combat sports stars to cross over into the entertainment industry after going on a remarkable MMA tear. Then Nate Diaz against Mike Perry is a matchup that pits two of the sport's toughest competitors. Diaz is long known for his relentless pressure durability. Dude is just tough. And Perry's a knockout artist whose aggressive style has earned him the nickname King of Violence. For the other main event, we have Francis Nagano, who is widely regarded as the hardest puncher in MMA history, going up against Felipe Lind, who combines a high level ground game with significant knockout power. Don't miss it. A blockbuster tripleheader. Most Valuable Promotions and Netflix are putting it on. Ronda Rousey against Gina Carano live only on Netflix. Saturday, May 16th at 9:00pm Eastern Standard Time, 6:00pm Pacific Time. We try to bring them on at least once once a month. I mean, I think that's reasonable. I mean, he's, he's a spot starter. Oh, come on.
- [02:03]
Chris Mannix
This is it. What, what happened to buttering up your guest? I'm, I'm available weekly. I'm still waiting for the regular rotation. I, I'm not saying I'm an ace, but I'm a. I, I, I can, I can, I can start Game 3 of a playoff series. Come on, Abs.
- [02:22]
Kevin O'Connor
Absolutely you can. So I was just talking about you to somebody in the industry. I'm not even going to get into it, but it was very complimentary. So. There's a lot of peripheral things going on in basketball. One, one of them we've talked about is Kevin Durant.
- [02:40]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [02:40]
Kevin O'Connor
And I've always, I've always believed this to be true. Judge a person by how relationships end. Not how they start. Guys have great opening lines at the bar and then they don't text or they text when they break up. Like our presidents. Boy, they've got a great mission statement going into a war, we can never get out of it. Right. Like, it's just guys are really good with entrances and awful with exits. I can argue now after the burner phone incident, which is alleged but seems to be true, Kevin Durant exited in OKC, Golden State, Brooklyn, Phoenix and Houston 0 for 5. He's like, bad breakup boyfriend. Like, there is something to be said that. And this is the Aaron Rodgers vibe I've always had. I know most athletes aren't great leaders, but there is kind of an understanding. If you're the best player on a team, you gotta kind of own some of it. You just can't be guy who shows up and hits buckets and watching, you know, Kevin Durant and it's almost like he. The net rating was better when he didn't play for Houston. And I've got to be honest with you, it does affect the way I look at him. It does ding his legacy a little bit to me.
- [04:02]
Chris Mannix
Of course. I mean, listen, I think that KD has a legit gripe with the media for creating rings culture. Him leaving and going to Golden State, winning rings and then us being like, yeah, but those rings aren't that impressive. Like, I get. I get why that would piss him off. And I do think that that seemed to be some sort of breaking point with like, all right, now I'm going to just really engage and like, be very online and like, kind of push back at narrative stuff that he doesn't like. But sorry, like, I don't hold those rings in as high of a regard. You joined a super team that had already won. Like, it's it. You ye. You were great. But like, Giannis's is more impressive. Jokic's is more impressive. Like, we've talked about that before. He's going to make all NBA this year, which is what I think really does compliment, like complicated. He is going to be now 65 game rule. A little contribution to it, but not really like, that guy's a Hooper. He showed up, he played and 100 media members are going to vote him as either being a top 10 guy this year or a top 15 guy this year, depending on if he makes second or third team. So if it is done in Houston over the burner stuff, I will get it because of chemistry. But I don't think this is like, Houston will be better Without Kevin Durant. I don't believe even though they were, they were better for a couple of games against the Lakers in the playoffs. I don't. He is still an awesome basketball player. Maybe he's a mercenary. Maybe he needs to go to Detroit where it's like clearly Cade Cunningham's team, like Kate Cunningham, Max contract guy, he might be the starting point guard for Team USA at the 2028 Olympics. Like no one would be really looking to KD to be the leader of that team. Goes to Minnesota, that's Aunt Edwards. His team like goes to New York. That's Jalen Brunson's team in Houston. It was always going to be his team because Shengoon, by his own admission, language barrier, more of a lead by example Guy Van Vliet, great player. But point how you can't lead from street clothes. Right. He's out the whole year. So if he moves on, I don't think Houston gets better. They make their locker room gets better. And he's got to be thinking, all right, it's five franchises, rings that people don't really hold in high regard. And he's going to go down with maybe scoring more points than Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Like it's a, it's a weird legacy For a top 20 all time player in the history of the sport. He's probably the most complicated guy in the top 20 to really pin down exactly what he is.
- [06:50]
Kevin O'Connor
Well, Carmelo Anthony's another guy. Like not really a winning player, didn't play defense often, not in the best shape, but a great basket. I mean and I think Carmelo's legacy is popular. Was he a winning player? Russell Westbrook's legacy Hall of Famer. Was he a winning player? You know, it's basketball. I tend to give basketball players a little bit of a break because it's the most artistic of sports. Yeah, like people have signature shoes and signature moves. You know, it's like nobody in baseball really has a signature shoe. That's not a thing. And so like I kind of give basketball players a little bit of a break. I mean I was, I, I was a kid, I liked World B Free.
- [07:32]
Chris Mannix
Hell yeah.
- [07:33]
Kevin O'Connor
I mean, yeah, just a ridiculous gu gunner. Not a winning player. But I remember when he would play like once a year, the Sonics, I was fascinated by maybe it was the name. So I tend to give Katie a break in that. It's basketball. He's a little bit of an artist. You know, not everybody is like Matt Damon, Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Denzel really good with a business and a great artist like Mick Jagger and Bono. Some artists, they trash hotel rooms and get married four times. Like, I still like their art.
- [08:04]
Chris Mannix
Well, listen. And Kate and Katie, if he was listening to this, he'd probably be like, I've made hundreds of millions of dollars from investments. Like, he actually is a pretty good businessman, you know, like, yeah, he. And I think that Katie is smart, and I think that Katie is. I think he's eccentric. You know, people have made, you know, they've made the Aaron Rodgers comp. Maybe you've made the Aaron Rodgers comp. I think it's pretty spot on. Like, Aaron Rodgers could have been a better leader, should have more rings. But he's universally regarded as an all time talent and it complicates his legacy because of all of the other stuff. I think.
- [08:41]
Kevin O'Connor
I think eccentric is a great way to put it. Yeah, yeah.
- [08:45]
Chris Mannix
And he's. And because he's about my age, he's a couple of years younger than me. He is very millennial. And I say that with just the amount of judgment that I can say as a millennial. Like, I went to college and my freshman year is when Facebook became a thing. So, like, I got to meet people before, like, after high school, before college. Like, they were in my dorm via Facebook. But you were still, like, going to parties and, like, maybe posting pictures on the Internet. But we weren't all on our phones all of the time. Like, that kind of blew up after my college experience. Whereas, like, my younger sisters, they've had smartphones since they were in grade school. And I do think there's a difference. And that, like, Katie, he's very online. He's just, He's. I bet you his screen time is 8, 9, 10 hours on his device like he is. And so when you do that and you give all of these people, not just people like you or people like me, who at least try to have some sort of, like, consistency with our opinions and watch the games and talk to people, whatever. But, like, literally, like Nets Fan 42, when you give all of those people access to your pocket and your brain and your consciousness, not everyone can separate it. And I think KD clearly has. He, like, he wants to be able to have a voice in front of a microphone and in a boardroom, but he also wants to have a voice with nets fan 42. And it's like, buddy, you're Kevin Durant. Like, you have to be above it. Like, the fact that it appears that he was the guy talking trash on all of his teammates is so embarrassing. Like, that's. It's such an embarrassing scandal, but I think it is, like, only the type of thing that could happen to a millennial Gen Z era person who is, like, looking for currency and validation online. But it's so embarrassing for a person of his stature.
- [10:58]
Kevin O'Connor
So I'm a boomer, so a lot of. Lot of sex.
- [11:01]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [11:02]
Kevin O'Connor
A lot of drinking and eventually a lot of money.
- [11:04]
Chris Mannix
Yeah. You guys crushed it.
- [11:07]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah, yeah.
- [11:08]
Chris Mannix
No, you crushed it. You guys were able to go to college for like, 48 bucks, buy a house, or buy a house for $3,200 that maybe the government subsidized. And then you're like, I bought my house. This. This person who I will not name, who I met through my job in New York. Not a famous person, but just, like, a person. And they were like, when I moved out here, they're like, you should buy my house. Like, I'm getting ready to downsize. I was like, oh, yeah. She's like, yeah, like, I'm. I'm going to list it for, like, $2 million. I'm like, oh, good. Good for you. And she's like, I bought it for $160,000. Like, great. That opportunity is not available to the millennials that graduated college in the housing crisis of 0809 and then have lived through whatever the hell the last 20 years have been. But I'm really happy for all of you guys.
- [12:04]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay, let's pivot to. Let's pivot to Draymond Green.
- [12:09]
Chris Mannix
Oh, yeah, that's a right turn.
- [12:11]
Kevin O'Connor
So he used to be at the volume. I liked him. I thought he cut through. So basically, Draymond Green came out and said, you know, Steve Kerr may have gotten in the way of my career. And then Austin Rivers is like, bro, you're the luckiest guy in the history of the league. And then Draymond and Austin Reeves. Rivers. Austin Rivers have exchanged. Unpleasantries. So I like Draymond. I would say this is where I think Draymond lacks a little self awareness. So his high school coach in Saginaw, Michigan, was a guy named Lou Dawkins, hall of Famer. He eventually gets Steve Kerr, hall of Famer. That's after Tom Izzo, who will be a Hall of Famer. He's never had a bad coach. LeBron's had like four. Like, I mean, Mark Jackson, by the way, was very effective. Kerr was just better. And it was. It was really transitioning to a very offensive three point league. And Kerr was a long range shooter. So the Culture sort of moved away from Mark and into Steve. And that's what I would say. Now, obviously, Austin Rivers, I mean, we don't. I mean, it was a disappointing career, whatever. But I can simultaneously think Draymond's the best defensive player ever and better offensively because he's a catalyst than people give him credit for. But then part of me is like, bro, that would be like me having three bosses, all of them the best in either their state, region, or industry. Like, I've said this forever for young broadcasters. Don't chase money. Chase management. There's a sea of money in anything. There's a finite number of really shrewd, sharp, visionary bosses. Like, I've had maybe three in a 40 year career. Where do you land on Draymond?
- [13:55]
Chris Mannix
Draymond is an amazing basketball player, but if he thinks that if he was on the Pelicans, he'd be a first ballot hall of Famer, he's out of his mind. Like, respectfully, because he is an incredible defensive player. He's a four time champion. He's a four time all star who averages nine points a game. Like it. Dyson Daniels is an amazing defensive player. Like, if you're watching the Hawks, you're kind of locked in on Dyson Daniels, but, like, he's not on a Hall of Fame trajectory like you. You have to win for to be a player like Draymond, for. For you to be on Turner, to be on the volume, for us to care about you.
- [14:47]
Kevin O'Connor
Now, can I argue this, though? Rodman played for the Spurs, Chuck Daly and Phil Jackson. And the truth is, smart people understood the value of him. And the thing I would argue with Draymond is, despite his idiosyncratic personality, Kerr would never let him go. It was basically a Steph Draymond team. And so like Rodman, you can say, oh, he wasn't a good teammate.
- [15:11]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [15:12]
Kevin O'Connor
Then why did Popovich, Chuck Daly, and Phil Jackson all speak glowingly? There is value in Draymond retaining a contract with this maybe the smartest coach in the league.
- [15:24]
Chris Mannix
Oh, but okay, so maybe I didn't. I don't. I don't think we're disagreeing here. Like, Draymond is a winning basketball player. Draymond absolutely had a tremendous amount of value to the. To the warriors dynasty. I am merely saying that, like, if Draymond Green was on the Pelicans or the Hawks or the Bulls or whomever, he is not. They're not create. He's not the one who created the dynasty. Steph Curry is right like he, you can be a winning player and Dennis Rodman was amazing, but that was still more because of Isaiah than Dennis Rodman. It was more because of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen than Dennis Rodman. He was just a, he was excellent at his role. And then the, the winning that came partly because of him and partly with him is what elevates him all time. There are a lot of great rebounders and defensive players that if they don't have a lot of rings, we don't really care about you. So I, I think that but Draymond, it also, it makes sense why he has a little bit of an overinflated sense of self. Like Steph Curry loves him, LeBron loves him. He's got titles and a gold medal and like doing it his way has made him obscenely wealthy and obscenely famous. So like there's no reason for him to change and stop being who he is. But I don't think that Draymond Green would be regarded as an all time player if he had been drafted into a different situation.
- [16:57]
Kevin O'Connor
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- [18:33]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [18:34]
Kevin O'Connor
So the first time I watched the NBA was in the early 70s. It was like 1972. I can remember watching the Washington, Miami, super bowl on a black and white TV in my bedroom. And I remember watching a CBS NBA game. Brent Musburger was calling the play by play. It was the Lakers, like with Wilt Chamberlain. Old Wilt lumbering up the court with a headband against the Blazers.
- [18:55]
Chris Mannix
Wow.
- [18:56]
Kevin O'Connor
And yeah, it was in Portland. And Portland came back to beat the Lakers. They were down like 20 and came back. I've looked it up and I can't find the game. So Wilt Chamberlain was a remarkable basketball player, but a bit too flaky to be the face of the league. And Kareem Abdul Jabbar was too stoic and prickly and was never the face of the league. And Akeem Olajuwon and Tim Duncan weren't the face of the league. And Kobe's signature shoe at Nike was a bigger deal than Shaq. So Shaq was never really the face of the league. Shoe sales sort of matter of that stuff is that as much as we look at Wemby as face of the league, he's international. He's 7 4. Alien is a compliment, but it's not terribly relatable as a nickname like the Doctor is or Mamba is. Alien is frightening and otherworldly. And I'm watching him against Minnesota in that game and my take is his game is fascinating. He's basically a disruptor on defense and a finisher on offense. But he's not a creator like Jokic or Kobe or Michael or Dr. J or Steph or LeBron. He's not a creator. And mostly our faces of the league have been creators and finishers. And I think he's just going to go down as one of the all time great players. But I don't know if he is face of the league guy.
- [20:24]
Chris Mannix
He's pretty thoughtful.
- [20:26]
Kevin O'Connor
He is very.
- [20:27]
Chris Mannix
He. He gives very interesting answers which I, which I do think will help him in like the media ecosystem. People are going to want to continue to talk to him, so I will give him that. I do think that winning is a big piece of Duncan won a lot, but wasn't face. Wasn't face of the league. To. To your point, it does tend to go to guys who have the ball in their hands as guards. But he might just change everything. Like, I just. As you were talking about it, I googled, you know, just top selling jerseys. And this is an article, Stephen Curry leading way in jersey sales so far for 2025, 2026 season. So I don't see a date on this post from NBA that came out
- [21:11]
Kevin O'Connor
not, not that long ago jersey sales came out. I think ant was shockingly low at 5. But Minnesota had a really weird regular season.
- [21:20]
Chris Mannix
Yeah, so, I mean, but. So this is from like earlier in this season. Oh, okay, here we go. Updated January 20th. So four months ago. But for this season, Steph Curry won. Luca 2, Brunson 3, WEMBY 4, LeBron 5, Ant 6. So if you're fourth in jersey sales, and that's before you really enter the MVP conversation, before you became the first unanimous defensive player of the year and before you had even played in a playoff game, and you're 21, 20, 22 years old, I have to be open to the possibility that that guy can be the face of the league. Like, what you're saying historically is accurate about big guys, but I think we are like, everything about Wemby has to be taken with like. Yeah, but the alien might be different. It just, you know, he might just break all of the rules. And again, fourth in jersey sales. Purely anecdotally, I do. I have seen kids in Wemby jerseys. Not saying a ton. I see more Yankees jerseys on kids where I live, but I have seen some. So I think he is such a singular talent and that. I do think it is possible. And that game, as we record this on a Tuesday, that game last night was a weird one. Oh, what a weird basketball game.
- [22:42]
Kevin O'Connor
So I had said this the day before. I'm like, Minnesota's a pain in the ass.
- [22:48]
Chris Mannix
Oh, yeah.
- [22:49]
Kevin O'Connor
And unbelievable fourth quarter team. The way Chris. Chris Finch experiments. And then when games matter, they're really good. I mean, their fourth quarter scoring, I mean, the minute that game went in the fourth and they took a four point lead, I'm like, the game is over. Like, absolutely. De' Aaron Fox was terrible. Castle. Stefan Castle was in foul trouble. And Julius Randle. Julius Randle is one of the more underrated players because the analytic mavens don't love him. But he's a walking 19:9 and he bullies Wemby. But I watched. I watched that game and my. And I was as. He was over 8. I'm watching Wemby and I think he's a fascinating disruptor defensively. I don't really love watching his game offensively. He's, you can knock him off his spot, he's off balance a lot. He hits the floor a lot. He's not a great passer or initiator. He's a very good closer. But I don't find, I mean, again, I didn't find LeBron's game that appealing his first two to three years as he developed as a perimeter player, I found it more engaging then I, then after the Dallas disaster in the finals, he developed. I thought his game had. He kind of finished his game. It was close. He finished it. And I still think MJ's more fun to watch than LeBron. And I think Kobe was more fun to watch. I don't know, I'm just, and I'm not trying to be a critic. I hope Wemby wins. He's just a really thoughtful, smart guy and he's really good with the press. But as I watch him, I don't, I'm not captivated by his offensive game. And that usually feels like. I've said this about Jason Tatum. Sometimes Tatum, I'm like, is he playing? What? Yeah. Where is he?
- [24:28]
Chris Mannix
Yeah, I mean, listen, last, last night he was 5 of 17 and O of 8 on from threes and you're like, that's, that's a, that's a game that a 7 foot 5 guy should not have. But you know, to your point about LeBron, you're like, he didn't love it early. It wasn't totally refined. He had to develop. He came in A league at 18 years old. But right, like, you know, we have to kind of remember, like, Victor Wembanyama is by far the best defensive player in the sport. And at least on a per 36 minute basis, a pretty damn good offensive player. Also, he didn't play a ton of minutes this year, which I think was smart given the health issues and the size and how young he is and all that. And we'll see what happens. Like, but I am totally open to the possibility that his offensive game will, will keep developing and small pivot. But Minnesota, God, are they fun. Like, so Chris Finch, we profiled him a bit in our book Pipeline of the Pros because he went to Franklin and Marshall and he was a two time all American. But like, the stories people would tell about him was just like, just kind of like gritty, nasty, really physical, like the best rebounder the program had ever seen. And it's, it's a, it's so instructive when you think about Minnesota, that they're so tough and they're, they're so fear. Like, like Randall's just like, body in people and go Bear. Nas Reed is not Naz Reed. McDaniel, Terrence Shannon, his Illinois kid. Illinois kid. Chicago tough. And he comes in and he, you know, he gets blocked two times in, like, the first minute of the game, and the first minute he's on the floor, it's blocked three times by Wemby. He's asked about it afterwards and he's like, yeah, I told him he better, he better. He's going to need to block me every single time because I'm going to drive to the hoop, I'm going to come at him every time. I'm not going to stop coming down the lane. Like, they are just fearless and really physical and really scrappy and really tough. And so I just, I don't know who will win that series, but I think we have to let I respect the hell out of them. They overachieve in the playoffs, back to back trips to the Western Conference finals. Got crushed for the Go Bear trade that has worked out for them. Obviously crushed in the, for the Cat Julius Randle trade, which I think has been at least a draw, win, win for both teams. Just a really interesting team. And if they knock Wemby out, man, like, we're going to have to put a lot of respect on them.
- [27:05]
Kevin O'Connor
So we'll edit this back in the NBA group. You live in New York now.
- [27:11]
Chris Mannix
Oh, okay. Yeah.
- [27:12]
Kevin O'Connor
And I've found that the Eastern Conference is hard for me to figure out. I mean, Detroit finished as a number one seed and they have one score last year. Charlie Reese, Halliburton in Indiana suddenly were dynamic. We're like, how the hell is this happening? Is Cleveland good? I don't think so. Philadelphia, we sort of gave up on. And then they beat the Celtics. And my point is with the Knicks is it's the East. Like, I know Minnesota, San Antonio, Oklahoma City. I see the rosters and they're going up against each other. Like, Denver's a good team. They got extinguished. Are the Knicks good? I don't know.
- [27:55]
Chris Mannix
I think it's totally fair. I. They were really inconsistent over the course of the year, and so I just.
- [28:04]
Kevin O'Connor
They had locker room issues. Like, there were reports they didn't like each other.
- [28:07]
Chris Mannix
I, I. So I didn't believe in them. And, and I also didn't believe in them because of their own standards. Like, they fired Tibbs for, you know, making it to the Eastern Conference finals. And James dolan went on the radio and was like, finals are bust. Like, okay, I don't think you're a finals or bus team. So anything short of making the finals is a disappointment. And now they are on a run. The last four games it's been absurd. Now you can say it's caliber of opponent. But if all of the teams in the east are flawed and you're the team that's playing the best at the moment, maybe you're going to win the East. And if you win the east, you can win the finals because you don't have to get through the gauntlet that Minnesota is going to have to get through. Like, I think Oklahoma City is the best team. I thought they were the best team last year. Indiana took him to game seven. So if you make it and you're hot and Brunson can win any game by himself, like I have to be open to the possibility that the Knicks can win the title. And Carl Anthony Towns, he is.
- [29:11]
Kevin O'Connor
It was worse, significantly worse this year. Bridges was significantly worse. Not that dynamic of bench. I mean it's a weird team.
- [29:19]
Chris Mannix
It is, but like Towns is at least trying on defense and OG on and Obi is playing great right now. Like he's great and Hart plays his ass off. And so like I just. Listen, I picked him to lose to Atlanta. Knicks fans do not like me right now, but they are playing an incredible, incredibly high level of basketball. Did you see the stat going around today that it has never happened in the history of the playoffs with three straight wins of 25 or more and
- [29:49]
Kevin O'Connor
then they're shooting 60% in their last three games.
- [29:51]
Chris Mannix
Like a. It seems completely unsustainable and. But, but Cade is the entirety of the Pistons offense. The Cavs, I think they're the most talented team, but they just seem impervious to all playing well at the same time. Like I'm like, why can't you guys have a good game together? Like if you all had a good game at the same time, I think that they would be the best team in the East. But they. It just seems like it's an impossibility for them. And Boston shot themselves out of the playoffs and Philly, can you possibly trust Embiid to stay healthy for the whole thing even though he is spectacular and they look non competitive. So yeah, I think the Knicks are hot right now. My pick was the Cavs, but I didn't feel great about it. And so they're. The east is really weird and really flawed and we're going to go into the NBA Finals. Just like we went into the super bowl. And we're going to say that the Western Conference finals are like the NFC championship game.
- [30:52]
Kevin O'Connor
Well, that's right. Seahawks, Rams were 10 and oh. Against the AFC.
- [30:55]
Chris Mannix
Correct.
- [30:56]
Kevin O'Connor
And the Thunder and Spurs are like 49 and 11 against the East. I mean, it's clear.
- [31:00]
Chris Mannix
Yes. So we are, we're all going to have the same take. And then in the back of at least my mind, I'm going to be like, but Tyrese Halliburton took the Thunder to seven. Like that is why they play the games. And I do have, I haven't like had our researchers run the data on it yet, and I don't think we have enough of a sample of it. But I do think there is so much talent and now these guys are so good at shooting the three and the three ball, adding more variance to the sport that I do think we're going to. I'm not positive that 10 years from now we will look back at the Pacers and be like, well, that was a one of one outlier. Like, I don't think we're going back to an era where it's just ones and two seeds that make it to the finals every year. Like, I, I think that just teams are kind of playing possum in the regular season, just trying to be healthy, get hot at the right time. Like Minnesota can make the finals. There are six seed. Like, it just. I think that we're just. There's so much talent in the league now. Well, I think we have to be more open to the possibility that the lower seed can pull off the quote unquote stunning upset. But it's not really all that stunning because they also have an awesome team. Just, just think about Philly's roster, Max.
- [32:14]
Kevin O'Connor
They have four guys who can score the ball.
- [32:17]
Chris Mannix
Yeah. And like Embiid, mvp, Maxi, all NBA, Paul George, a handful of all star teams like Edgecomb, sick player. Like, they're, they're a really talented team, but they're a seven seed. Minnesota a six seed. Like, there's just so much damn talent in the league now that I don't think we can be as shocked by upsets if they happen.
- [32:38]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay, I want to do over unders in the NFL. I'm going to ask you over under and you have to give me a paragraph. Why?
- [32:45]
Chris Mannix
Okay. I mean, man, we're doing this before the sequence of the schedule is out. I love it. Okay, let's do.
- [32:51]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay. The schedule release is next week, so
- [32:55]
Chris Mannix
I love schedule release. People make fun of so do I.
- [32:58]
Kevin O'Connor
I'm the same way people. First of all, New England got to a Super bowl for two reasons. Easy schedule. And Bo Nicks got hurt. The Niners were 12 and 5 for one reason, the schedule. They couldn't score a touchdown the last two games against Seattle with Kyle Shanahan. So it's like Washington the year before gets. Has success. Really light schedule. Of course it matters.
- [33:22]
Chris Mannix
Of course it matters. But like, what the critics would say, like, well, we know the opponents right now. What is the order matter? I'm like a. It's just fun. Like, don't hate on fun. And a lot of just people, real people, not people like you and me and I are ivory towers of media. They go to like one road trip a year. Like, it's fun to know like, if, like when Vegas is on your team's NFL schedule is like, when do we get to go to Vegas to see our team play? Well, when am I going to Lambeau for Bears, Packers? Oh, my team gets to play at Arrowhead this year. Like, it's, it's the sequencing of it in doing the whole snl. Like week one, Lions win. Like, it's, it's fun to do the whole thing.
- [34:07]
Kevin O'Connor
Well, the other thing is it does matter. Andy Reid in September.
- [34:11]
Chris Mannix
Yes.
- [34:11]
Kevin O'Connor
Denver in the high altitude at home in September. Miami don't want to play. Okay, Miami until like October 10th.
- [34:20]
Chris Mannix
Yep.
- [34:20]
Kevin O'Connor
Buffalo, Baltimore, New England. Rather not play a roadie in December. Like, folks, if you're a dome team or a warm weather team, you don't want to go north after like December 3rd.
- [34:31]
Chris Mannix
Yeah. When, when is your buy would do? How are you handling your international trip? Is it early? Is it late? You have the buy after your international trip. It's, it's, it's great. It's great.
- [34:41]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay, so one of the best bets, I think so the, the Cowboys last year faced eight teams with winning records and went one in seven. And they more than any team in the league go from last year, I think the third easiest schedule to one of the toughest. They have the biggest pivot, easy to hard. And if you start looking at their schedule, look at the teams Dallas plays. Dude, it's, I mean, it's a lot of Jaguars and you know, it's, it's like teams with a good offensive coach. Now, I do think they've upgraded defensively, but they're an eight and a half and that is the biggest sucker bet ever. Everybody's going to bet the over on this. And my take is the Giants are going to be Much better. The commanders, Jaden Daniels healthy is going to be much better. And their schedule folks, look it up. It's just landmine after landmine. That's one of my favorite unders is Dallas under eight and a half.
- [35:44]
Chris Mannix
Yeah. So they get. So they have NFC west and AFC South. AFC south is obviously a pretty good draw.
- [35:52]
Kevin O'Connor
Well but Daniel Jones and the Colts early last year were fantastic.
- [35:56]
Chris Mannix
Yeah. Well and what I was going to say is, is like you, you want, you also want the tougher teams obviously to be at home for bigger chances of upsets and they got a pretty bad draw with that. Like they're, they're, they're road games in those divisions at Houston, at Indy, at the Rams, at the Seahawks. Yeah, that brutal. That's very difficult.
- [36:19]
Kevin O'Connor
And last year they played Geno and Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Now they did beat Mahomes but he had four touchdowns, no picks and a passer rating of 1:30. So he literally ate them alive. I think the best under bet is Dallas eight and a half. All right, so I'm going to give, I'll start with you Dallas. I'm kind of setting you up here. I think Dallas under is the play there. Your thoughts on Dallas eight and a half.
- [36:40]
Chris Mannix
Yeah, listen, I, I, I, I agree with you because I have not committed all of the division opponents to memory yet. So you're, I'm going to be kind of doing this on the fly. But what I would say about Dallas is it seems almost impossible that they will get that George Pickens season again. That seems very unlikely. He was second team all Pro so
- [37:00]
Kevin O'Connor
not in a good mood with a franchise tag. Yeah.
- [37:02]
Chris Mannix
And whatever the franchise tag component is going to be there. However, their defense can't be worse. They use their highest pick on a defensive player since 2012. They gave out the biggest contract to a defensive player for them since 2012. They four of their first six picks were on the defensive side of the ball including two first round picks. Caleb Downs obviously everybody loves. We'll see how Malachi Lawrence does like new defensive coordinator which I do think can be like a new. There's just a bump in effort. So if their defense can be the 17th ranked defense in the league and they get offensive health, they definitely can be the best offense in the league with Dak CD and Pickens and they found a bit of a running game last year. But those are two huge ifs. So I understand why you're going going under. That schedule is brutal.
- [38:09]
Kevin O'Connor
One of my favorite overs is the Lions 10 and a half which Seems like a lot but they have the easiest schedule in the league. Massive upgrade at offensive coordinator and they solved their left tackle issue. So I think a lot of people are, I mean listen, we love their gm.
- [38:27]
Chris Mannix
Yep.
- [38:27]
Kevin O'Connor
We really like the coach and the quarterback. They have most of the elements but over the last, last year they had to address their offensive line. Last year in the draft, very young interior. Now they're going to have a young left tackle but one of the more talented ones. Go look at the Lions schedule. So if I say over 10 and a half it's like folks it's a 17 game schedule. So 11 and 6 I and so I'm giving them a lot of like Arizona's on the schedule.
- [38:56]
Chris Mannix
Yeah, they got their, their road games. They've got easy road, easy road game in Arizona, easy road game in Miami, easy ish road game in Carolina. That's, that's a pretty good road. And and you also want to look now since it's an unbalanced schedule like you said, do you have more home games or road games? And they have, they have more home games than road games. So yeah they, they do have very on paper, easy schedule Jets.
- [39:21]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay, so I'm one of my favorite unders is the Cowboys one of my favorite over the Lions. So now I'm just going to go and let you take over.
- [39:29]
Chris Mannix
Okay.
- [39:30]
Kevin O'Connor
Bears nine and a half. Schedule is tougher. Bears nine and a half.
- [39:34]
Chris Mannix
So listen, people will call me a homer, that's fine. I do think this is an over because I don't see why the Lions, packers and Bears don't all have the same over under. I don't think they're. And the Lions and the packers are ten and a half and the Bears are nine and a half. I don't understand like it's a very, very, very difficult division and the regression for the Bears will have. They will not lead the league in takeaways this year. They will not lead the league in fourth quarter comebacks this year. 80% of their offensive line last year played in over 90% of the snapshot. Left guard, center, right guard, right tackle were all remarkably healthy. That's already not going to happen because of the Drew Dahlman surprise retirement at center. Even though they addressed it with the Bradbury trade and the second round pick. However we see when special quarterbacks are paired in good systems, their second year in the system is when they take the lead. It's what happened for Mahomes, it's what happened for Lamar Jackson. Like we've seen it time and Time and time again I believe Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are special and he has unbelievable weapons and all of those young guys get to take that same second year in the system. Leap Odunze, Burden Loveland. So I think the offense will be a top 10 offense, maybe even a top five offense. I know they think they can be the best offense so I think their offense is going to bring them to double digit wins this year.
- [41:11]
Kevin O'Connor
Packers at ten and a half.
- [41:15]
Chris Mannix
So that one again packers hands. You're just a hater. I think that the packers and I want to pull up the schedule to see who their home road splits are. So I'm going to do this with you on.
- [41:26]
Kevin O'Connor
They're in a really interesting spot where I got it. So I you know Gary and Kenny Clark, Don Micah off an injury, not good against the run. They plan a division now with some really lively offenses and creative people and I just will they. And Jeff Halfley leaves. I have questions about. I don't ever question their draft and development. I think they have really nice weapons. I. How good is their defense?
- [41:54]
Chris Mannix
Yeah, I think, listen when Micah was there it was pretty good and then everything fell off a cliff when. When he got hurt. Schedule, you know at the Rams is obviously brutal. At the Patriots the. The rest of it's pretty Saints, Jets, Bucks. That's a pretty. That's a pretty tame road schedule actually. If you, if you. Comparatively I think that the Packers. You said it was ten and a half. Yeah, yeah. Again I think so. I'm. I would small disagree with you on Detroit and I just think all of those teams are like in the 910 range. So for the bears at 9 and a half they'd be my over and for the Lions and Packers at ten and a half they would. I'd lead under because I just think that they're all basically the same, all have one or two big flaws. But then the rest of the team is really good and the coaching is really good in that division and I don't know if you have Minnesota on your list but now that they have Kyler Murray it's just such a. Like I could see last place in the NFC north being an eight win team. Like I don't think that there's any easy out in that division so I think I'll just lean unders on the two teams with the highest win total.
- [43:06]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay. I want to go afc.
- [43:07]
Chris Mannix
Let's do it.
- [43:07]
Kevin O'Connor
This is interesting. I think the Raiders are going to be much more competent. I think Denver has the best roster and division and I Think Justin Herbert will finally have an offensive line. Kansas City I think is going to make a leap. Ten and a half to me is the under and I think I just look at that division now and I'm like if Clint Kubiak is good, the coaching's really good. The personnel like when you let go of Trent McDuffie, I wish him the very best on their Rookie. But Trent McNuffy was like the second best corner in the league. Chris Jones relative to Chris Jones was not terribly productive. I think their offense will mostly be solved with Kenneth Walker and I do think Josh Simmons they like a lot at left tackle.
- [44:01]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [44:02]
Kevin O'Connor
And Mahomes will be healthy. But you know Rasheed Rice, do we trust him? Travis Kelsey Age. I think Kansas City is going to be good. But remember when the Rams, everybody thought they win the super bowl next year. Stafford gets hurt, they're bad and then they bounce back. They have a bounce back year and they signed one Kevin Dotson, one acquisition off season and then they had like Puka Young, Kobe Turner. They hit on three draft picks but they weren't Philadelphia. They didn't. It took them another draft and free eight. That's what Kansas City is. So I think they had three great draft picks, Kenneth Walker, but it's hard to find when you look at that defense. You're relying on a couple of rookies to deliver. I think Kansas City will be good, but I don't think you can go from what they were last year to a Super bowl team.
- [44:53]
Chris Mannix
I think that that is all pretty sound. Andy Reid has hit the over in I think all but two years since he's been there. It's just stupid. It's a remarkable run for that guy. He has, if you give him healthy quarterback play, he just represents such a insanely high floor. And obviously with Mahomes it's been a pretty high ceiling. They also as I just. Man, having Seattle and the Rams on your schedule as road games is just, that is a, that is a really, really, really tough break to not get one of those games at at Arrowhead this year given how good Seattle ended up being. So that, that is very tough. I just, I loved the Kenneth Walker edition so much for them. They haven't had, they haven't had a 1,000 yard running back since 2017. So you give Mahomes the best running back he's ever had because I think Kareem Hunt had a very nice season. But I do think Kenneth Walker is a better player than Kareem Hunt was. So Rashid Rice also at this moment in time, it looks like everything's going to be fine. But like, who knows because he is getting. He does get into trouble off the field and there have been issues, but like, if Rasheed Rice is a number one and when he is healthy, Mahomes treats him like a number one. Worthy is a guy who got better. The year went on in a very fun weapon and the addition of Kenneth Walker, I do think they have the opportunity to be a really damn good offense this year. So I'm not in the business of betting against Andy Reid with healthy Mahomes.
- [46:32]
Kevin O'Connor
We'll end with this. Have you seen DTF St. Louis?
- [46:36]
Chris Mannix
I have not.
- [46:38]
Kevin O'Connor
I have no kid.
- [46:40]
Chris Mannix
I've heard you like reference it and I see you tweet about it and
- [46:44]
Kevin O'Connor
I, oh my God.
- [46:47]
Chris Mannix
I know just enough to be dangerous and I find it amazing that you love and watch the show. So I don't know, but I don't know. I can't name a character. I've never seen an episode.
- [46:56]
Kevin O'Connor
Okay. It's just. It's the best acting I've ever seen. Everybody's sensational. The acting is sensational. And like the Wire with Baltimore or Breaking bad with Albuquerque, St. Louis is perfect. It's a boring suburb town. It's kind of square. It's not exactly a hip city. Yeah. And they, they find these three people with incredibly mundane, boring middle class, I guess, lives. And it is, I mean, you got to suspend some belief. It's. It's based loosely on a true story out of New Jersey. But they tried to. They didn't get quite as kinky as the story really was. It is. You have to watch the last second.
- [47:42]
Chris Mannix
It is so weird.
- [47:44]
Kevin O'Connor
I mean, I shouldn't love it. I told Anne, I said it's sticky. You couldn't turn it off. I'm like, oh, I gotta see another episode. These people are so freaking bizarre. It. I called him, I have one buddy in LA that's like a producer. I'm like, how do people do this? How do you write that? And he's like, you know what? And he's been in Hollywood for 40 years. He Two and a half men. He was, you know, made his fortune there. And he's like, listen, man, there are people in our industry that see things that we can't. Some people see ghosts, some people see stories. And it's like I said, you have got to watch this. I think it's one of the best things I've seen now. Ozark is my all time favorite. Narcos and Ozark are my favorite streaming shows ever. It's on a short list of. With Minehunter, Mindhunter's way up there as well. Yeah, it is. I liked it much.
- [48:37]
Chris Mannix
Stranger things you're doing blushing, Colin.
- [48:39]
Kevin O'Connor
Oh, it's just, it's got some sexual weirdness and I am America's honesty broker and I wear zip ups, so it does not of me.
- [48:51]
Chris Mannix
I, I just, I love it. I haven't seen any of it. But that, that, that review from you and how like you're squirming a little bit and blushing a little bit. It's very, it's very, it's very endearing. Like I will, I will watch the show. These NBA playoff games, man, they end at like one in the morning on the eastern time. It's brutal, it's outrageous. And no one wants to feel bad for us for the job, but like,
- [49:19]
Kevin O'Connor
my God, it's my least.
- [49:20]
Chris Mannix
I'm so tired.
- [49:21]
Kevin O'Connor
When they, when I lived, when I was at ESPN and the Heatles were a thing.
- [49:26]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [49:27]
Kevin O'Connor
I mean. And would go to bed at like 10. I'm like, I'll see you in about two and a half hours. I didn't sleep. I used to say May is the worst month of the year when you have a really fascinating NBA team. And the heels, like you had to watch every second of the game, like Mike and Mike. And I mean, to their credit, they would read the packet in the morning, but there's no possible way they watched it because I had to get up at three hours later.
- [49:49]
Chris Mannix
Yeah.
- [49:50]
Kevin O'Connor
And I had, you know, for me, I had a little bit of a break because their show was on 1st and I, and I, you know, I was a basketball guy and like kind of a LeBron guy. So it's like, all right, I'll stay up. May was awful. And now Chicago's slightly better, but not much.
- [50:04]
Chris Mannix
Yeah, but it's about an hour better. It's about.
- [50:08]
Kevin O'Connor
Exactly.
- [50:08]
Chris Mannix
It's about one hour better.
- [50:11]
Kevin O'Connor
Yeah.
- [50:11]
Chris Mannix
But yeah, these games end and I'm just like, okay, again, I don't have to be. I don't have to be on the air until 5pm but I'm still dragging my ass across the. Across midtown talking about these games. But yeah, the NBA playoffs are great. It's a good problem. But I will put the show on the list for. For when the playoffs conclude.
- [50:32]
Kevin O'Connor
Good stuff, bud.
- [50:33]
Chris Mannix
All right, man. Good to see you. Thank you.
- [50:37]
Kevin O'Connor
The volume.
- [50:40]
Chris Mannix
Shoot your shot.
- [50:41]
Kevin O'Connor
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Chris Mannix
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Kevin O'Connor
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Chris Mannix
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Kevin O'Connor
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Chris Mannix
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Kevin O'Connor
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Chris Mannix
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