Colin Cowherd Podcast - Los Angeles Fires, Sharp Or Square - Betting Wild Card Weekend + The College Football Playoff Semifinals

Summary

Podcast Summary: "The Herd with Colin Cowherd"
Episode: Colin Cowherd Podcast - Los Angeles Fires, Sharp Or Square - Betting Wild Card Weekend + The College Football Playoff Semifinals
Release Date: January 10, 2025

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1. Los Angeles Wildfires: A Historical Catastrophe

Timestamp: [02:07] - [11:43]

Colin Cowherd opens the episode by addressing the devastating wildfires in Southern California, particularly focusing on areas like Malibu and Pacific Palisades. He emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the disaster, highlighting factors such as "four concurrent wildfires" and "80 mile an hour winds" that rendered traditional firefighting methods ineffective.

Colin Cowherd ([02:50]): "It's like the world's worst tsunami. You can’t blame the Coast Guard, you can’t prepare for it."

Colin shares personal anecdotes about his experiences driving through the region, revealing his hesitance to purchase a home in Pacific Palisades due to the area's inaccessibility during emergencies. He underscores the structural vulnerabilities, noting the dense construction of homes in jungle-like terrains, which exacerbates the spread of fires.

Colin Cowherd ([05:30]): "This area is a jungle. It is trees and canyons and narrow roads. And the fires were so intense on the flat, lower levels, it made it very difficult to get up and solve the upper tier."

Chad Millman adds depth to the discussion by pointing out the geographical spread of the fires across Greater Los Angeles, illustrating how the fires impacted both affluent and standard neighborhoods simultaneously.

Chad Millman ([06:07]): "It’s not isolated to four sections of greater Los Angeles that are all right next to each other. You can go from the Palisades to Pasadena, which are not on top of each other, and you’re getting massive fires in both places."

Both hosts express their frustration with the politicization of the disaster, advocating for a focus on the historical severity rather than assigning blame. They also commend the firefighters for their remarkable efforts under catastrophic conditions.

Colin Cowherd ([08:17]): "It's gutting, it's awful, it's terrible. But I just wish people sometimes not everything would have to be about politics."

2. Personal Reflections and City Preferences

Timestamp: [11:43] - [15:31]

Transitioning from the wildfires, Colin and Chad delve into personal reflections on city living. Colin discusses his decision to purchase a home in Chicago, influenced by his wife's preferences and the desire for more accessible infrastructure.

Colin Cowherd ([10:20]): "I've purchased a place in Chicago and so I'm spending more and more time in Chicago because my wife has given so much to me in our relationship and sacrificed and I've never sacrificed for her."

They further explore their favorite cities, with both Colin and Chad expressing a deep appreciation for London and Chicago. Colin passionately recommends London as his favorite city, praising its historic architecture, vibrant culture, and enhanced nightlife.

Colin Cowherd ([14:10]): "If you've never gone to London, do it in your lifetime. It is historic. It is beautiful. The architecture, the people, the parks, their taxi system. The food's gotten much better. The nightlife, the pubs. It's just fantastic. I love it."

Chad shares a personal connection to London, mentioning how he met his wife there, adding a sentimental layer to his city preference.

Chad Millman ([15:02]): "I met Stacy. I met my wife in London. We were both students, and I wanted to move back for the past 30 years. I'm dying to go back."

3. Betting on the College Football Playoffs

Timestamp: [15:31] - [25:33]

The conversation shifts to sports betting, with Colin and Chad analyzing the upcoming College Football Playoff Semifinals. Colin expresses confidence in Ohio State's chances against Texas, citing Ohio State's defensive aggression and offensive consistency.

Colin Cowherd ([16:54]): "I think Ohio State is going to run through this thing to the national championship."

Chad provides a contrasting perspective, cautioning against overly optimistic betting due to potential recency bias affecting the odds.

Chad Millman ([19:01]): "The power ratings on this are basically Ohio State minus three, maybe minus four. It's at minus six. And as good as the Ohio State defense is, Texas defense has been as good all season long."

The hosts discuss the dynamics of the new kickoff rules in the NFL and their unintended consequences on betting trends, particularly how they may favor favorites by influencing game strategies.

Chad Millman ([20:25]): "If you have a Good quarterback and you're at the 30, you complete two passes, all of a sudden you're on the other side of the field."

Throughout the segment, Colin and Chad dissect various betting lines, including picks like the Steelers at plus nine and a half against the Ravens, and the Rams at plus one and a half against the Vikings. They weigh factors such as team performance, quarterback reliability, and coaching strategies to inform their betting decisions.

Colin Cowherd ([23:11]): "I'm at home. And the Rams are as healthy as any team in the league right now. They have everybody, which is just remarkably good fortune."

4. NFL Playoffs and Betting Strategies

Timestamp: [25:33] - [43:39]

In the latter part of the episode, Colin and Chad delve deeper into NFL playoff betting, analyzing matchups and odds for several key games:

• Steelers vs. Ravens: Colin opts to take the Steelers at plus nine and a half, despite recent poor performances.

  Colin Cowherd ([27:18]): "I'll take Pittsburgh plus nine and a half. Sharper square."

• Buffalo Bills vs. Commanders: Colin expresses skepticism about the heavily favored Bills, questioning the viability of betting against a rookie quarterback.

  Colin Cowherd ([36:27]): "I think the Bills are going to be winning. And I think Sean Payton's going to have to put Bo Nix in a position where he's got to make uncomfortable throws."

• Chargers vs. Texans: Both hosts favor the Chargers, citing their strong offensive line and defensive strategies despite public betting trends leaning towards the Texans.

  Chad Millman ([39:49]): "I bet the Chargers at two and a half. We talked a lot about this on the show today and the wise guys are lining up behind Houston. I don't get it."

They also discuss external factors influencing betting, such as the new kickoff rules and coaching decisions, which have led to a year where "favorites" have been more successful in covering spreads.

Chad Millman ([41:35]): "How you're managing the last two minutes of a half, going for it more often on fourth down. That used to be a variance of two to three times a game. Now it could be four or five times a game."

Colin concludes with his final picks for the NFL playoffs, including Notre Dame over Penn State, hinting at a low-scoring game based on his analysis.

Colin Cowherd ([43:39]): "Starting tonight, I'll take Notre Dame close over Penn State. Low scoring game. Probably like the under Good talking to you."

Notable Quotes

• Colin Cowherd ([08:17]): "There are some heroes in all this stuff because there were houses."

• Chad Millman ([16:54]): "This is something I'm going to spend a lot of time in the off season doing is really taking a look at the impact of the new kickoff rules."

• Chad Millman ([25:33]): "We do give away. The winner of the season long contest gets $40,000 first place prize."

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This episode of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" offers a comprehensive blend of serious discussion on natural disasters and their socio-political implications, intertwined with in-depth analyses of sports betting strategies for both college football and NFL playoffs. Colin and Chad provide valuable insights, personal anecdotes, and expert opinions, making it a must-listen for sports enthusiasts and bettors alike.

Transcript

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Jon Stewart]

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[Adnan Virk]

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[Jason Demers]

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[Colin Cowherd]

The volume. All right, time to bring in Chad Millman, co host of the favorites. We always call this sharp or square. All of our odds provided by DraftKings. We will start because Chad and I were texting the other day on the wildfires and the devastating damage in Southern California. You know, it's interesting Chad, One of the things I try not to fall into, and it's just rampant on the Internet, is making things political when they don't necessarily need to be. You know. And the areas that were devastated, Malibu and Palisades, Pacific Palisades. I've actually driven around a lot over the last several years. Years, because I was looking to buy a home in Pacific Palisades. And one of the reasons I didn't and my wife and I didn't is because the inaccessibility of these windy roads into canyons. And I had said to my wife, if I got into trouble or had a heart attack, I mean, it could take 40 minutes for somebody to get here. You an ambulance. And so you had this. You had four concurrent wildfires, 80 mile an hour winds, which meant planes were not allowed to fly over and drop water. So two things happened. Four concurrent wildfires, historically bad winds, not even in fire season, and you couldn't use planes. It's like the world's worst tsunami. You can blame the Coast Guard, you can't prepare for it. And if people don't know this area and Topanga Canyon and Malibu, they have no idea what this place is like. Like most people that work nine to five, you can't live in Malibu because you can't get in and out of it in the morning. So, you know, people are making this just a completely. And I voted for Rick Caruso over Karen Bass, you know, because I thought the city needed somebody who was development, a builder for their homeless. I thought he could really solve that. And he had a real detailed plan on this. And I got nothing for against Karen Bass. But sometimes things happen historically and you can't prepare or solve it. And I'm not saying, I mean they had these water tanks available. They blew through three of them, millions of gallons of water very, very quickly. They could have had six of those reservoirs, not three. It wouldn't have solved it. So it's one of those things for people asking me, do we have to make it political? Like this thing was historic. People don't understand. The day of the they told you a day out in Los Angeles two days before there was a weather warning and they put the list of how strong the winds would be. And everybody in town was like, oh, this is trouble. This is big trouble. So there was some sense it could be happening. And now there's arson. There's discussions of arson on some of these later fires. But I'm okay. The firefighters are amazing. But I don't think people understand this region. This Area is a jungle. It is trees and canyons and narrow roads. And the fires were so intense on the flat, lower levels, it made it very difficult to get up and solve the upper tier, the upper parts of it. So that's my rant on it. I'm fine. I've got friends who have lost homes. It's gutting, it's awful, it's terrible. But I just wish people sometimes not everything would have to be about politics. This was a historically bad two days of four concurrent wildfires and 80 mile.

[Chad Millman]

An hour winds and four concurrent wildfires. By the way, if you look at the maps, it's not isolated to four sections of greater Los Angeles that are all right next to each other. You can go from the Palisades to Pasadena, which are not on top of each other, and you're getting massive fires in both places. I, like you, have been struck by people who are saying this isn't global warming, this is the city of Los Angeles's inability to manage the catastrophe by not having water or not having police and fire where they need to have them. It all strikes me as a little disingenuous because in either capacity, something is causing this. It's not the police and fire and lack of water that are causing 80 to 100 mile an hour winds. And I don't really understand why it has to get political at all. Like you. Someone's got to get people out. Someone's got to go manage the fire. They're doing the best job they possibly can. I'm always struck by when I'm driving around la, especially in the hills, how the entire area is constructed like a Jenga set. Yeah, right. You see, there's a house on every single inch of property going up these winding roads. I know Palisade's a little bit less. And it's astonishing to me the way the city and the hills, especially houses, have been constructed there. It's not surprising when you're seeing an area that is so compact with housing, the fire is jumping from one place to the next. There's no opportunity for it to stop because there's so much fuel. There it is. As someone who's 3,000 miles away and has a lot of friends like you who are in the area, it's frightening to watch. It's frightening to see the stories that are coming out of there. It's frightened to see the images. It really, truly is apocalyptic. It's astonishing.

[Colin Cowherd]

I ended up buying a home in an area that is easy to access, get in and out of about five Miles away from Palisades. But it's a jungle when you drive through it. It's this lush, gorgeous tre. Trees, brush, canyons. My first take driving through it was, oh, I can't live here. It's just too hard to access. So you're asking these brave and courageous firefighters and these people of LA county who are remarkably courageous, strident, tough. You're asking them, oh, yeah, you can't use planes. The winds are 80 miles an hour. People are running out of their cars. It was a scene from an awful movie. And listen, when you get these natural disasters, boy, everybody's looking for perfection and everybody's pointing fingers. There are so many people, a thousand homes. I mean, you will look at aerial footage now you cannot believe, Chad, what it looks like. It is literally like a zip code. Every house burnt down. It's awful.

[Chad Millman]

It looks like, it looks like what we see when we get images from war torn countries.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Where it's just buildings and cars that are completely burned out. Except it's in the middle of one of the wealthiest areas in the entire country. It's, it's astonishing and devastating to look at. It truly is so. It's stunning.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah. So just, just.

[Chad Millman]

I'm glad you're okay. I'm glad you're okay.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah. And I know this is a somber tone, but I just, I, you know, I thought about this today, people. I've gotten, I've gotten 50 texts in the last two days and I'm one of the lucky, I'm one of the lucky ones. I've got, you know, some kids around that, you know, have kind of been on pins and needles. But it is, there's, there are some heroes in all this stuff because there were houses.

[Chad Millman]

Does it ever make you want to leave California?

[Colin Cowherd]

You know, my wife's not a fan for a lot of reasons. The expense, you know, it's. Every place has their issues. That's been pretty well documented. I have purchased a place in Chicago and so I'm spending more and more time in Chicago because my wife has given so much to me in our relationship and sacrificed and I've never sacrificed for her. And living by her family and I love the people of Southern California. There's so many things I love about it, but, you know, my wife's not as big a fan and she misses her sister and her family in the Midwest. And by the way, I love Chicago and I still love la. But, you know, it's just one of those things where I don't want to ever use a singular Reason for being mobile. I liked Connecticut. You know, people always used to poke fun at Connecticut. It's boring. And I'm like, I was there a decade, it was fine. I had great friends, great neighbors. High schools were great. My kids loved it. So I think there's a lot of places in this country to live. And I think the people in every place I've lived in Nevada, Oregon, Washington, California, Connecticut. I spent a lot of time in Rhode Island. Everywhere I go, people are great. Sometimes the politicians aren't, sometimes the regulations aren't, but the people are amazing everywhere I go.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, you know how much I love Chicago as a Chicagoan or, you know, kid from the suburbs of Chicago. I did see your picture the other day wearing your new fancy winter coat, and I felt like he needs to wear a hat. Like it's it. You can't just go with a coat. You got a layer and you got to wear a hat.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah, I did.

[Chad Millman]

Really important, especially like where you live in the city, where your places, you got wind tunnels coming down there. I know that's, that's dangerous right there.

[Colin Cowherd]

I know I wore a hat later in the day. Okay, I will tell you one thing.

[Chad Millman]

And you'll appreciate this. I know people don't want to hear weather talk, but I will tell you one story and people will like this. So you know, when we on the favorites on the volume podcast network, we do a contest every year. A season long pick'em contest. We give away $100,000 over the course of the year. Don't worry, it's not your money. Colin, I just want you to know we're not giving away your money.

[Colin Cowherd]

All right.

[Chad Millman]

We do give away. The winner of the season long contest gets $40,000 first place prize. So we had the winner on the show today. The winner, by the way, discovered the favorites podcast because he's a fan of Colin Cowherd. And over the years he has seen me either on television with you at ESPN or on this show with you through the volume and the various things that you've been kind enough to have me on. And now with the Favorites on the volume podcast network. So that's how he discovered us, his job. He is a farmer in Bow Bells, North Dakota, which is a speck of a town with 300 people. And he lives outside Bow Bells, which is within the Canadian border. Shouting distance. Right. So of course I'm like, you don't get. I said to him, you don't get days off as a farmer and North Dakota gets cold. What kind of coat Are you wearing to stay warm? And so we went through. He's layering. He's got a good Carhartt coat. That's how he stays warm when he's in the tractor and he's watching Red Zone while he's making bets. That's how he's doing it. I feel like you need to make sure you're layering. I just want you to be comfortable when you're in Chicago. I don't want you to find any reason people also like it.

[Colin Cowherd]

No two cities in the country get criticized more but are more fun to be in than Los Angeles and Chicago. LA can be a ball. I absolutely love Chicago. I've said my favorite city in the world is London. My second favorite city is Chicago. Dude.

[Chad Millman]

My favorite city in the world is London. My second favorite city is Chicago.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah. You're the fourth person in the last month who has said the exact same thing. I was just talking to a lady the other day about something. She said the same thing. She was a director in Hollywood who was on the Fox lot. And I. My wife couldn't live in London. It's a bit dreary and gray, but I grew up in the coast of Washington. I could live in London tomorrow. If I retired tomorrow and just it's over, I would be in London and Chicago and, you know, I would occasionally go for a sunny week in Miami or something. But I. For those listening, if you've never gone to London, do it in your lifetime. It is historic. It is beautiful. The architecture, the people, the parks, their taxi system. The food's gotten much better. The nightlife, the pubs. It's just fantastic. I love it.

[Chad Millman]

It's every alley. You can imagine the history that happened there. It's. You know, I met Stacy. I met my wife in London. We were both students, and I wanted to move back for the past 30 years. I'm dying to go back.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah. And if you. If you save up enough money and you have a budget. Kensington Paddington, maryleborn.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, my God.

[Colin Cowherd]

Oh, God.

[Chad Millman]

We can do a whole podcast just about where to live in London.

[Colin Cowherd]

Oh, I love it. All right.

[Chad Millman]

People would love that, too.

[Colin Cowherd]

All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I'm going to take Ohio State minus six against Texas. And I think Chip Kelly is a big advantage for Ohio State this season. So it's the first time college football playoffs are the NFL. We can play 16 games. And I think over the course of a season, Ohio State, we think about that Michigan game, but they've really changed their offense, added layers to it. And like the NFL, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders late last year. That's okay. Well, it's now okay in college football. You can be awful at home against Michigan and get into the playoffs. I have watched Ohio State's last two games and the games before Michigan. I think they're unbeatable at the college level. I think they're playing with a violence on defense, an explosion and a consistency on offense. I think Will Howard had one awful game and a couple other average ones. I think he's really good. And my problem with Texas is always the same thing. They're a splash offense. They will score, but they are not consistent. Penalties, pass blocking. Quinn Ewers is hot and cold. I think Ohio State is going to run through this thing to the national championship. What do the guys say, sharp or square?

[Chad Millman]

It's a little bit square. And there's some recency bias that is going into your thinking. I'm with you. I think that the way Ohio State has played, we talked about this. Heading into the playoffs, the Ohio State fans were so caught up in losing to Michigan, they had kind of lost the forest for the trees and didn't understand the new dynamic in college football, which is doesn't matter who you lose to during the regular season. You just got to get to the playoffs and then you got to dominate. And then you can judge success based on that. Winning or losing that one game against Michigan is not the key factor in whether or not your season has been successful. So kudos to Ryan Day, kudos to Chip Kelly. Kudos to that staff for turning around their season and coming out of the playoffs into the playoffs so hot, so dominant, doing things that they hadn't been doing during the regular season. Really utilizing Jeremiah Smith in a way that makes him look like a man amongst boys. However, the same recency bias that is making you think Ohio State is the right side is also making this number leak a little bit higher than it should. Right. The power ratings on this are basically Ohio State minus three, maybe minus four. It's at minus six. And as good as the Ohio State defense is, Texas defense has been as good all season long. A some people will say the best defense we've seen that defense and what they've done. Quinn Ewers, yes, he's been inconsistent and we saw sort of the peak of their inability to move the ball offensively when they played Georgia in that SEC title game. But their defense kept them in that game the entire time. Wise guys will tell you sure, Quinn Ewers hasn't been consistent but he did get hurt and the last couple games he's been much, much better than he had been as he was coming back from the injury. So I do think that the wise guys here are looking at Texas because the number has gotten a little too big. It's almost a touchdown. It's six points. That's just a lot of points.

[Colin Cowherd]

So it's been a year in which I tend to play underdogs and it's been a favorites year. And so I've had a really bad year betting NFL and if you look at college football and pro football this year it's look at the playoff. It's been the year of the favorites. Now some people tell you because of the new kickoff in the NFL where the ball can get put at the 35 yard line, it's giving good quarterbacks an advantage over the course of a game on possessions that they didn't necessarily need to win. All eight divisions were won by the eight best quarterbacks in their division. It had become a quarterback centric league a decade ago. That was an edge. The new kickoff rules that the new that the better quarterbacks didn't need. They were winning despite that and now they're winning in clear fashion. That said, I'm going to take the Steelers plus nine and a half against the Ravens. Zay Flowers is out. I know Pittsburgh hasn't been playing well, but I, I just watched Baltimore clobber Pittsburgh. I do know this. Pittsburgh has a ton of pride. They're very good on defense. Baltimore in the playoffs. Memo to nobody. To everybody that's watched them the last six years, they tend to play better in the regular season than the postseason. This number is out of whack to me. I'll take Pittsburgh plus nine and a half. Sharper square.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, it's sharp. The number got to 10 and now it got back down to nine and a half. So there was some buyback there. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little bit lower. It was much higher. It was much lower earlier in the week. It was a seven and a half. And when it was seven and a half it got bet up quite a bit by the wise guys. You mentioned a couple really important things and this is something I'm going to spend a lot of time in the off season doing is really taking a look at the impact of the new kickoff rules on how teams covered or didn't cover. And did it really favor the favorites? Because I think there was sort of some unintended consequence here. If you have a Good quarterback and you're at the 30, you complete two passes, all of a sudden you're on the other side of the field. If it's fourth and short, you might be more inclined to go for it earlier in the game on fourth down because you feel like, well, I might have a chance to get back here more quickly because of the way the kickoff rules are. And I also think coaches are just more inclined to go for it on fourth down. So a combination of the kickoff rules and more aggressive decision making based on the analytics has made it easier and more likely that favorites are going to cover. Will that be a trend that goes forward? We don't know yet. I want to have a year's worth of data now that we have it to look at it and review because I think it's fascinating and I think it will be something that people have to make adjustments for going into next year. On this game, you mentioned the game they played on the 21st of December. That game was pretty close through about three quarters. It was the last 90 seconds of the quarter when things started to go out of control for the Steelers. Right. But one of the big factors in that game, Joey Porter missed the entire second half. When he was out, it went from the Steelers having a little bit of wiggle room to stay close to needing to all of a sudden be perfect. And they couldn't be perfect. Russell threw that pick six. They lost 34 to 17. So this is a huge number in a game where people are thinking about the Steelers, who, by the way, were. That was the second game of what became a four game losing streak in which they didn't score more than 17 points. The Ravens haven't scored fewer than 30 points since early December. So there is a huge, we're talking about recency bias, right. With Texas on Iowa State. The recency bias in this game is massively in favor of the Ravens, which is when you want to play the Steelers. Also this series, historically, it's never this big of a number and it's always a game that's within the spread. So that's another reason why you might.

[Colin Cowherd]

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Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.

[Adnan Virk]

Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We're going to all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.

[Jason Demers]

Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkie.

[Adnan Virk]

That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burkin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Colin Cowherd]

My favorite bet of the weekend is Eagles at home minus four and a half. Jordan Love is not healthy. Christian Watson is not available. Now they have depth at wide receiver. But I thought before the concussion I really thought Jalen Hurts was playing for about a month straight. I thought the offense was about as good as it could be. I thought the first of all, they are good enough to just run between the tackles and they were doing that. Plus outside the tackles, plus throwing deep, everything was humming. Green Bay is a team. Jordan Love has cut down on mistakes, but the organization told you in the off season we're going to pivot off our identity. It's a little too much Jordan Love and he can be a bit reckless. So they've become a team kind of built to play with a lead power run game, control the clock. You will not do that against Philadelphia. They're their best hope as a good first quarter offense is to score early, control the tempo. But I think this is a game where Philadelphia will control the clock and Green Bay will be forced into situations to make splash plays. And Jordan Love, and I like him, can get a little Sam Darnold on you really fast. I like Philadelphia a lot in this spot. Sharper Square.

[Chad Millman]

So the wise guys were with you when the line opened at three and a half. Is it three and a half? I bet it at three and a half. At four? I bet it at four, four and a half. It's getting into that range where you're still going to find professional betters who love the Eagles for everything you just said. But Matt LaFleur has a lot of respect in the betting community. He has been one of the better coaches against the spread during his tenure, especially as a dog. They are starting to see him as Mike Tomlin esque in the way he can scheme not just the first 15 scripted plays but throughout a game and keep his team in a very close game, especially like four and a half points in a playoff game between these two teams is a lot. So there's, there is a portion of the betting community that is looking to buy the packers at plus four and a half. From an on the field scheme point of view. Everyone who's betting on the Eagles is doing it because of what you just said. Their defensive line, Jalen Carter. Jalen Carter. If you poll the players, which it happens, you are allowed to vote for all pro as a player, you can't vote for yourself or anyone on your team to play with the second most votes. With Jalen Carter, like he is just so good right now and so dominant and the one thing we know the packers want to do, we've seen them do it all year. You see every graphic for every game that is televised with the Packers. Some point in the first 15 minutes of game time, you're going to see a graphic about how well the packers do with Josh Jacobs and how dominant he is running the ball early in the game and then all of a sudden teams adjust. He doesn't run as well later in the game. It's left up to Jordan Love and they can't execute as well in the second half. So yeah, if people are betting the Eagles it's because of what they can do defensively. Not to mention, by the way, how good they are in coverage from the middle linebacker, from the linebacking position, all the way through their secondary. Just powerful. Like if I'm buying a Super bowl future right now, I might buy the Eagles at plus 700. The Lions are about plus 280. Do I think there's that big of a delta between the Lions and the Eagles given how good the Eagles Defense is probably not.

[Colin Cowherd]

I like the Bucs at home. Minus three. Not the best of the line. But here's the issue. Baker Mayfield will have a great run game behind him. The Commanders run defense, below average. The Buccaneers run offense is exceptional. Jaden Daniels, a rookie quarterback on the road, will have a run game that will struggle. Vitavia and the interior D line of the Bucs is pretty impenetrable. So if I go into a game and I get the veteran quarterback at home, that will have the complement of a strong run game. That feels like about as good a bet as you can have. Bucks minus three, Sharper square, totally sharp.

[Chad Millman]

Wise guys love this spot. They love a ball in Baker Mayfield against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs. We've got a couple spots here. Rookie quarterbacks, slash quarterbacks who are playing in the postseason for the first time. Right. We've got three spots. We've got Sam Darnold, we got Bo Nix, we got Jaden Daniels. The wise guys love the bucks here because of Bucky Irving, because of the running game, because they think the Commanders have been getting by on Jaden Daniels and a little bit of luck. And they've got six games they won. In the final seconds of the game, they were barely. They were losing to Trey Lance, right? With Jaden Daniels playing, it was Jaden Daniels out of the game. Marcus Mariota comes in like they were losing to the Eagles. They were going to get run off the field against the Eagles until Jalen Hurts got that concussion. And then they still needed a miracle to win that game because Kenny Pickett played well for about five minutes in that game. And it was the most important five minutes when the Eagles had to drive down the field. And if not for a Devontae Smith drop, they win that game. So the Commanders have been brilliant. Dan Quinn, great job. Jaden Daniels, rookie of the year. But the playoffs are a different ball game, and the wise guys are seeing so much love from the public for the Commanders there on the Buccaneers.

[Colin Cowherd]

So Greg Cosell said something on my show today, and Nick Wright made fun of me this week. He goes in my herd hierarchy. I had the Rams one spot below the Vikings, and he said, once you pick the game, you're going to pick the Rams over the Vikings. And you have the Vikings over the Rams. I said, no, no, no. And then Greg Cosell showed up on my show today, and he said, the Rams defensive line against the Vikings offensive line. The film tells you Minnesota's in trouble here. Yeah. And so the Rams are getting a point and a half I'm going to listen to Greg Cosell. I'm going to go against my belief. I do get the better quarterback. I think I get as good a coach. I'm at home. And the Rams are as healthy as any team in the league right now. They have everybody, which is just remarkably good fortune. They were beat up until like, I mean like November 1st. Rams plus one and a half, sharper square, totally sharp.

[Chad Millman]

The line moved from two and a half down to one and a half. Honestly, it might be Rams minus one by kickoff. So I do encourage people, if you're listening to this, try to get the Rams as an underdog if you can. That scenario, a new quarterback to the postseason versus a veteran quarterback that is historically at a very high percentage advantageous from a cover point of view to the veteran quarterback and Matthew Stafford to me. We've talked about this before. If there's any quarterback, I don't want to have the ball at the end of the game. If I have bet the other side, Matthew Stafford is top five, right? Like it's. It's Stafford, it's Mahomes, it's Josh Allen, it's a little bit of Lamar. Like, those are the quarterbacks that you really are afraid. Joe Burrow, like, those are the quarterbacks that you're afraid of. Wise guys feel the same way. They love Matthew Stafford. The thing that gets interesting and this, this helps you justify a little bit the hierarchy and why you had the Rams one below the Vikings. If you look at the Rams after that Bills game where Matthew Stafford was nearly. They played perfect football. They played perfect football and they played the kind of football that everyone who has been backing the Rams and loves the Rams knows they can play. It was a perfect Sean McVay game. Kyron Williams has been brilliant this year at top three running back in the NFL. Stafford has been very inconsistent with Puka, Nukua and Cooper Cup. Like, there have been times where you think they're going to be brilliant and they're good for like a series. And so they lose to the Dolphins. They get lucky beating the Niners, they struggle against the Jets. Like these things happen over the last month of the season. I think that's why you might have had them below the Vikings. But now the season has ended, the second season has begun. We're going to find out, do we have the Matthew Stafford and Sean McVeigh and Kyron Williams that we all believe they can be? Because that's what betters are doing, professional betters are saying. Yes, we think they will have benefited from having this past week off and that the Vikings are starting on a downward trend. And Sam Darnold might be a little bit happy Feet because his offensive line isn't as good as it had been.

[Colin Cowherd]

There's always a game. I want you to explain to me. It is very easy to talk yourself into Bills at home minus eight and a half against a rookie quarterback. But Sean Payton has been really good on the road in the playoffs in his career. And I've watched Buffalo at different times this year. I've watched their defense get shredded. I mean, you go back to the Rams game, that's the best the Rams offense has been all year against anybody. Bad teams, good teams, they did whatever they wanted to against Buffalo. I watched Drake May in New England give them trouble a couple weeks ago. Something is telling me eight and a half's too big, but God, Buffalo can be such a freight train offensively. Tell me where I should go here.

[Chad Millman]

So look, the wise guys are completely split on this. It has been a stubborn, stubborn number. It was at seven and a half on Sunday night when the playoff seedings were, you know, just about set for the afc. And it lasted for a hot minute and then it was at eight and a half. And all these lines this week, they've been bouncing around. You know, the Chargers and the Texans was three, two and a half, three, two and a half. And the Rams has gone from two and a half to one and a half. And even the Steelers and the, and the Ravens has gone from seven and a half to eight and a half, nine, nine and a half, ten back down to nine and a half. This one was so stubborn, it sat on eight and a half, literally until late Thursday morning. It finally, finally ticked up to nine. Because what's happening is there's this money coming in from professional betters on both sides for everything you just said, they're afraid of this. Bill's defense. Don't forget, like the Bills used to do things like blow out the Dolphins, right? They let the Dolphins stay in it this year. Their defense has just not been very good. The things that wise guys who want to bet the Bills like is that Bo Nicks have just been much worse against zone than against man. The Bills play a lot of zone. A rookie quarterback in the first playoff game historically does not cover the spread. They feel like this is a game where Josh Allen can get everything right. And sometimes the Bills do blow out inferior opponents. The Broncos have been terrible against teams with a winning record one in seven this year, minus 37 point differential Sean Payton scares a lot of people. He is. He's one of those coaches, right? Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, Matt LaFleur, Bill Belichick over the past generation who guys do not like to bet against in a big number. I think what did it for me, I bet the Bills eight and a half. I could be wrong. It's a. It's a 50, 50 split. What did it for me is I think the Bills are going to be winning. And I think Sean Payton's going to have to put Bo Nix in a position where he's got to make uncomfortable throws. And we've seen it often enough this year. Go back to that Bengals game. He threw the interception right to a guy, right? And they had the game locked up. So I think that could happen at the end of the game. And that's an X factor for me to bet on the Bills.

[Colin Cowherd]

Finally, it's stay away game for me. Chargers minus three at the Texans. I think the Chargers win. Where do you land on it?

[Chad Millman]

I bet the Chargers. I bet the Chargers at two and a half. We talked a lot about this on the show today and the wise guys are lining up behind Houston. I don't get it. It feels a little bit trappy to me. The team that the Texans have been all season, they're not going to be a different team all of a sudden.

[Colin Cowherd]

Inconsistent week to week, half to half.

[Chad Millman]

All year they've been inconsistent. C.J. stroud has been terrible against two high safeties. That's what the Chargers like to play. The strength of the Texans defense is the pressure they can get from their defensive ends. The strength of the Chargers offensive line are there two Pro bowl offensive tackles. Justin Herbert does not turn the ball over to me. The key to this season in winning and I have been betting the Chargers consistently at the end of the season and we've seen this over and over again, is why I think favorites have been winning. Good quarterbacks. You've talked about that whole year. Impeccable, unimpeachable decision making more and more. It used to be, you know this. It used to be if you're a head coach, your only job on Sunday, manage the timeouts. Be there to tell someone if they're going to go forward on fourth down. Those decisions are becoming more important throughout the game. How you're managing the last two minutes of a half, going for it more often on fourth down. That used to be a variance of two to three times a game. Now it could be four or five times a game. Jim Harbaugh just beat the Broncos by managing the end of the first half in that game so well. That changed the game for the Chargers and changed the game for the Broncos. So I don't want to bet against Jim Harbaugh as a short favorite even though it's on the road and the wise guys are saying otherwise.

[Colin Cowherd]

Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites as always, buddy, I can't wait. Starting starting tonight, we're doing this Thursday afternoon. Starting tonight I'll take Notre Dame close over Penn State. Low scoring game. Probably like the under Good talking to you.

[Chad Millman]

Good talking to you. Glad you're safe buddy.

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Jon Stewart]

Jon Stewart is back in the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. Join late night legend Jon Stewart and the best news team for today's biggest headlines, exclusive extended interviews and more. Now, this is the second term we can all get behind. Listen to the Daily show ears edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Adnan Virk]

What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Verkin Demers, Jason.

[Jason Demers]

Emers here in after after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.

[Adnan Virk]

Hey, I got a lot to say here too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.

[Jason Demers]

Tons of guests are gonna join in too. But we're not just gonna be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.

[Adnan Virk]

Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.