Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Losing Parity, Deion’s Next Move? Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 13
Release Date: November 28, 2024
Host/Authors: Doug Gottlieb and Chad Millman
Duration: Approximately 65 minutes
Knowledge Cutoff: October 2023

Overview

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, co-hosts Doug Gottlieb and Chad Millman delve into the intricacies of NFL Week 13 betting, discussing team performances, betting strategies, and the broader issue of losing parity within the league. They also speculate on Deion Sanders' potential future moves in the coaching realm. The discussion is enriched with in-depth analysis, personal insights, and strategic betting advice, making it a must-listen for NFL enthusiasts and bettors alike.

1. NFL Week 13 Betting Picks

a. Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins

• Chad Millman expresses a preference for the Packers, citing superior coaching and favorable game conditions.
  • "[05:21] Chad Millman: ... I like the Packers... Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb concurs, highlighting the Dolphins' quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's inconsistent performance and the Packers' robust run game.
  • "[07:02] Doug Gottlieb: ... I'm with you. I don't get the move. I like the Packers. Sharper Square."

b. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• Chad Millman favors the Steelers, criticizing the Bengals' management and player performance.
  • "[07:43] Chad Millman: ... I like the Steelers as a dog plus three."
• Doug Gottlieb agrees, emphasizing Coach Mike Tomlin's effectiveness and the Bengals' defensive vulnerabilities.
  • "[07:52] Doug Gottlieb: ... I'd bet the Steelers on the money line."

c. Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Chad Millman opts for Arizona, discussing their improved roster and effective running game.
  • "[08:53] Chad Millman: ... I'm taking the three and a half with Arizona. Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb provides a nuanced view but ultimately sides with Chad, acknowledging the game's close nature.
  • "[10:15] Doug Gottlieb: ... I think the line is kind of right exactly where it is."

d. Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Chad Millman picks the Bills, highlighting their health and the 49ers' quarterback issues.
  • "[11:10] Chad Millman: ... I'm going to lay the seven. I like Buffalo. Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb supports the choice, pointing out the 49ers' defensive shortcomings without key players.
  • "[12:01] Doug Gottlieb: ... So you're not going to want to lose an indivision game. I like Buffalo. Sharper Square."

e. Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

• Chad Millman recommends the Titans, citing strong defense and favorable coaching.
  • "[12:59] Chad Millman: ... I'm taking the five and a half. I think Tennessee's a tough, physical team, Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb concurs, praising the Commanders' offensive struggles and Tennessee's defensive prowess.
  • "[14:16] Doug Gottlieb: ... that's a sharp play."

f. Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• Chad Millman chooses the Texans, referencing the Jaguars' internal turmoil and inconsistent performance.
  • "[16:07] Chad Millman: ... I'm going to take the Texans -4 at the Jags, Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb agrees, analyzing quarterback performance and offensive line issues.
  • "[17:00] Doug Gottlieb: ... it's a sharp play."

g. Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

• Chad Millman opts for Detroit, anticipating a high-scoring game and Chicago's potential weaknesses.
  • "[18:09] Chad Millman: ... Detroit minus nine, nine and a half. Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb notes the Lakers' overreaction towards Bears' performance but still supports the pick.
  • "[19:00] Doug Gottlieb: ... it's not a game I want any piece of."

h. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Chad Millman leans towards Atlanta, citing the Chargers' offensive line issues and Falcons' explosive offense.
  • "[28:18] Chad Millman: ... I'm going to take the Falcons plus one at home, Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb remains uncertain due to inconsistent public betting patterns but still analyzes team dynamics.
  • "[29:24] Doug Gottlieb: ... there's no real consensus here on what this game should be."

i. Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets

• Chad Millman does not make a specific pick but discusses the Jets' internal challenges and the wise guys' betting trends.
  • "[31:01] Doug Gottlieb: ... we don't watch much college baseball... I don't know how the Jets will perform."

j. Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Chad Millman chooses Carolina, reasoning that Tampa Bay's reliance on star quarterbacks might falter.
  • "[32:54] Chad Millman: ... I'm taking the Panthers at plus six, Sharper Square."
• Doug Gottlieb analyzes the Panthers' potential despite their recent performances.
  • "[34:28] Doug Gottlieb: ... I have bet the Panthers at plus six."

k. Notre Dame vs. USC (College Football)

• Chad Millman opts for Notre Dame, focusing on their disciplined approach and USC's transfer portal reliance.
  • "[34:28] Chad Millman: ... I'm taking USC plus seven and a half."
• Doug Gottlieb expresses reservations about Notre Dame's current pressures despite agreeing with the pick.
  • "[35:34] Doug Gottlieb: ... it's not a game I want any piece of."

2. Analysis of NFL Losing Parity

• Doug Gottlieb articulates concerns about the diminishing parity in the NFL, observing a widening gap between top-tier and lower-tier teams.
  • "[56:39] Doug Gottlieb: ... we cannot do that. ... The NFL games, they are becoming unwatchable."
• He attributes this trend to several factors:
  1. Dominance of Elite Teams: The same powerhouse teams are consistently outperforming others, reducing competitive balance.
  2. Increased Penalties: Excessive penalties are disrupting the game flow and diminishing viewer enjoyment.
     • "[59:30] Doug Gottlieb: ... it's a terrible live experience."
  3. Gatekeeping by Star Quarterbacks: Teams without standout quarterbacks struggle to compete effectively.
     • "[60:30] Doug Gottlieb: ... the teams that are really, really good are winning by really big margins."

3. Deion Sanders' Next Move

• Chad Millman and Doug Gottlieb speculate on Deion Sanders' future, weighing the prospects of him transitioning to an NFL coaching position versus remaining in college football.
  • "[51:09] Doug Gottlieb: ... I'd want to see if his ego and his strategy can work at the NFL level."
• Chad Millman discusses Sanders' respected reputation and his potential impact in the NFL.
  • "[53:27] Chad Millman: ... he's going to make the leap to the pros."
• Doug Gottlieb emphasizes the challenges Sanders might face, drawing parallels with other high-profile coaches.
  • "[53:13] Doug Gottlieb: ... I'm not sure how long Deion could last doing what he's doing."

4. College Football Transfer Portal and Coaching Culture

• Chad Millman introduces a theory on the negative impact of heavy reliance on the transfer portal, arguing that it disrupts team culture and long-term cohesion.
  • "[37:14] Chad Millman: ... the seasons always end disappointing."
• Doug Gottlieb acknowledges exceptions, citing Indiana Hoosiers' successful integration of transferred players without disrupting team culture.
  • "[38:52] Doug Gottlieb: ... Indiana took the entire team from James Madison and plugged them in."
• They discuss the nuances of building a strong college program amidst frequent player transfers, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a consistent and strong team culture.

5. Broader NFL and Sports Insights

• Doug Gottlieb draws comparisons between the NFL and NBA, expressing concerns about the NFL's evolving competitiveness and live experience.
  • "[53:20] Doug Gottlieb: ... the NFL is a terrible live experience compared to the NBA."
• Chad Millman adds his perspective on potential shifts in the NFL's popularity and viewer engagement.
  • "[56:39] Doug Gottlieb: ... the NFL is going to have to come to an understanding of what this television experience is."

6. Personal Reflections and Thanksgiving Messages

• In the closing segments, Chad Millman and Doug Gottlieb share personal reflections, expressing gratitude for sports, family, health, and personal growth.
  • "[60:39] Chad Millman: ... I'm really starting to be, I'm growing as a human being."
  • "[63:04] Chad Millman: ... Happy Thanksgiving."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Chad Millman on Packers vs. Dolphins:

  • "[05:21] Chad Millman: ... I like the Packers... Sharper Square."

• Doug Gottlieb on Steelers vs. Bengals:

  • "[07:52] Doug Gottlieb: ... I'd bet the Steelers on the money line."

• Chad Millman on Arizona vs. Minnesota:

  • "[08:53] Chad Millman: ... I'm taking the three and a half with Arizona. Sharper Square."

• Doug Gottlieb on Buffalo vs. Niners:

  • "[12:01] Doug Gottlieb: ... So you're not going to want to lose an indivision game. I like Buffalo. Sharper Square."

• Chad Millman on Titans vs. Commanders:

  • "[12:59] Chad Millman: ... I'm taking the five and a half. I think Tennessee's a tough, physical team, Sharper Square."

• Doug Gottlieb on NFL Parity:

  • "[56:39] Doug Gottlieb: ... we cannot do that. ... The NFL games, they are becoming unwatchable."

Conclusions and Insights

• Diminishing Parity: The NFL is witnessing a decline in competitive balance, primarily due to the dominance of elite teams and structural issues like excessive penalties.

• Betting Strategies: The co-hosts emphasize the importance of analyzing team dynamics, coaching effectiveness, and quarterback performance when placing bets.

• Coaching Transitions: The potential move of high-profile coaches like Deion Sanders to the NFL poses intriguing possibilities but comes with significant challenges.

• Transfer Portal Impact: Heavy reliance on the transfer portal in college football may undermine team culture and long-term success, although strategic implementation can yield positive results.

• Viewer Experience: There is a growing concern about the NFL's live game experience, with increasing penalties and game disruptions detracting from fan enjoyment.

Final Thoughts

Doug Gottlieb and Chad Millman's thorough analysis provides listeners with valuable insights into NFL Week 13 betting, the state of the league's parity, and the future trajectories of influential figures like Deion Sanders. Their discussions extend beyond mere game predictions, offering a deeper understanding of the structural and cultural factors shaping both professional and college football. As Thanksgiving approaches, their personal reflections add a heartfelt touch to the episode, highlighting gratitude amidst the competitive fervor of the NFL season.

Note:
Advertisements, promotions, and non-content segments have been excluded from this summary to focus on the core discussions and analyses presented by Doug Gottlieb and Chad Millman.