← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Lamar Jackson Is “1 of 1”, Saquon For MVP? Sean Payton Found His Next Drew Brees, Betting NFL Week 13
01:08:47
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- [00:00]
Doug Gottlieb
This is Doug Gottlieb from All Ball with Doug Gottlieb.
- [00:03]
Colin Cowherd
Listen, I'm gonna get serious for a minute. The hate in our country is getting out of control. In fact, it's sadly at an all time high.
- [00:10]
John Middlekauff
But it's gonna take all of us to stop it.
- [00:13]
Colin Cowherd
I mean, we're all on the same team in this country. So let's take a break from our hate so our team can regroup. We need to take a time out against hate.
- [00:20]
Doug Gottlieb
Visit standuptoallhate.org to help and join me.
- [00:24]
Colin Cowherd
In calling for timeout against hate by following at what's up with Hate or posting the blue square emoji.
- [00:32]
John Middlekauff
Ah. And here we have travelers in their natural habitat enjoying guaranteed 4pm checkout at.
- [00:37]
Colin Cowherd
Fine hotels and resorts booked through Amex Travel. And they don't even see what's coming at them.
- [00:41]
John Middlekauff
We're in.
- [00:42]
Jon Stewart
We got the table.
- [00:43]
John Middlekauff
Yep, with resi priority notify they're alerted.
- [00:46]
Colin Cowherd
When hard to get Reservations open up.
- [00:47]
John Middlekauff
Reservation for 2mm Save the best for last thanks to AMEX Platinum, the last.
- [00:53]
Colin Cowherd
Day vacation brings yet another experience that's the powerful backing of American Express.
- [00:58]
John Middlekauff
Terms apply.
- [00:59]
Colin Cowherd
Learn more@americanexpress.com RHYTHMICS Jon Stewart is back.
- [01:03]
Jon Stewart
At the Daily show, and he's bringing his signature wit and insight straight to your ears with the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. Dive into John's unique take on the biggest topics in politics, entertainment, sports and more. Joined by the sharp voices of the show's correspondents and contributors, and with extended interviews and exclusive weekly headline roundups, this podcast gives you content you won't find anywhere else. Ready to laugh and stay informed? Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:40]
John Middlekauff
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What time is it? Game time. You know, I could really be obnoxious. You guys have been banging on Lamar Jackson for so many years. You want to know what Lamar Jackson is after a loss the last three seasons, 10 and 1, 16 touchdowns, four picks. And they're just certain arguments you just got to give up on. He's really good. Does this count as a big win? This felt like a big game for me. Monday Night Football, John versus Jim Harbaugh. I felt like kind of a big win. Yeah, I lose track. I'm trying to keep track of all the big wins and not big wins for Lamar Jackson. I'll be honest with you, it's going to be a two cigar night. And I like the Chargers. I got friends with the Chargers, but basically Baltimore is the adult Chargers. Remember a couple years ago, and you're like, ah. The Ravens need more dynamic playmakers. They draft Zay Flowers this off season. They get Derrick Henry. What do the Chargers need? Probably a more of a star power running back, at least two more offensive playmakers. Quentin Johnson can't catch three drops tonight. So like they knew when they let go of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, they knew they were going to be perimeter light. So they wanted to get Quentin Johnson as good as he could possibly be. Nice deep threat, but can't catch. Ladd McConkey. Nice slot average tight ends. They lost Gerald Everett to the Bears. So you kind of knew that the Chargers were ahead of schedule. I mean, last year they lost to bad teams. This year The Chargers are 6 and 0 against losing records and they're 1 and 4 against teams with winning records. So this is what the Chargers are right now. It's a really good football team that is perimeter light. They need two more playmakers. And it kind of feels like the Ravens when it was very, very Lamar Jackson Reliant. Mark Andrews was great, but you were like, they need two more wide receivers. Then they draft eventually Zay Flowers. Then they add Derrick Henry. And you're like, okay, Lamar. It's a little bit like Josh Allen before they got James Cook. The running back drafted Kincaid first round out of Utah. They keep drafting wide receivers. Now you look at it and you're like, okay, Josh Allen's their best player, but they're not totally. Josh Allen Reliant tonight, Derrick Henry, big run. Zay Flowers, big catches. Zay Flowers is great. You can give him a drag route for 8 yards, turns it into 28. He can beat you over the top. So the Chargers are a little like Josh Allen pre all the weapons and Lamar Jackson pre the weapons. Those teams eventually meet at Kansas City and you just can't. Even if a quarterback's great, Lamar and Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, you can't do it yourself. You can see the interior protection tonight was not good for Justin Herbert. So in the second half, the guard, center guard for, you know, the Chargers getting pushed back and not a lot of separation by the receivers. Lad McConkey is a twitchy, quick player. He's not a burner though. So you don't get a lot of separation. Makes Herbert play a more perfect game. Whereas as a flowers, you could dump him something in the flat, something underneath, boom. Makes it into a big play. Can also beat guys over the top. So it's just like the Ravens are the grown up version of the Chargers, who are way ahead of schedule, by the way. The other thing that jumps out to me is that, you know, the Chargers were number one in total defense, top three and third down defense. So they're great situationally. And yet what did lamar do tonight? Three for three on fourth down, 50% on third down, 371 yards, 7.1 yards of play. It's the first quarterback all year that worked the Chargers, Lamar Jackson. And you know, it's just, it's just like so many great golfers play during Tiger woods prime. Phil Mickelson's an all timer. Take out Tiger. He's got six more majors probably and nine more tournament wins. So I just think, you know, the quarterbacks to me that jump out in this league, there's about six of them. And Lamar and Josh Allen have been sort of marginalized at times because they can't beat Mahomes. Good luck. But this felt like a big game and Lamar was, you know, the centerpiece of it. The other thing is there was a couple of thoughts. Number one, aggressive works. This game really changed when the Ravens go for it in their own 16. Get it and leads to a touchdown. Aggressive wins. And you know, I talk about that all the time in sports. If you have the, if you have the pieces, go for it. They did turn the game around. Secondly, there was a lot, you heard the young media lamenting, nobody cares about running backs. Running backs aren't getting paid. You know, the top three rushers in the NFL right now were all free agents. Teams aggressively went out and Got Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs. Teams eventually pursued top running backs. They're not going to get top of the market money. But analytics tells you you probably shouldn't sign running backs to a second big contract. Just analytics. I mean if you're one of these, you know, these Ivy Leaguers who loves the analytics. Part of the analytics is you shouldn't be paying running backs after like a fourth or fifth year in the league. Okay? That's part of analytics. The other thing is, you know, I've said this about Lamar. Don't really compare Lamar Jackson to anybody else. Lamar is an outlier. He's a unicorn. They are going to be a kind of a run first team in big spots. As long as Lamar Jackson is their quarterback. It's, it's, it, you know, it's no different if you got a fastball pitcher. That's your out pitch. Don't throw breaking stuff and bigot bats in the World Series. Lamar Jackson on big downs with Derrick Henry run the ball. When they, when they move away from that identity last week or in the playoff game, that's when I worry about Baltimore. Lean on Lamar and Derrick Henry in that offensive line. So right now running is cool again. Look at the teams that lead the NFL in rushing. Philly, Steelers, Lions, Packers, Ravens. What are they? 43 and 19 are after the night? 44 and 19. And part of this is again defenses, Linebackers are smaller. Why? Because the game's more about space. Like the NBA game, it's more about space. Linebackers now are faster and smaller. Safeties are faster and smaller. What does that mean? Get powerful run games. So that's the beauty of sports. That's what I love about sports and football. It's very, very cyclical. Running backs were going nowher running backs create the right tempo. Running backs, Detroit's a great example. Running backs value is often not the big play. It's you have a lead and they kill the clock. Detroit is going to lead 99% of the games they play, including potentially the Super Bowl. What makes Detroit so lethal is that when they get a lead, they can play keep away. They got two great backs and they'll just, with that offensive line they'll go on an 8 minute drive, 11 play drive. So. So running backs aren't just about the home run, they're about playing with a lead. And I mean you start looking at these teams right now. That's why Detroit and Philadelphia could absolutely win the Super Bowl. Stacked rosters, but the ability to lead, yes. Hit home runs out of the run game, but basically keep a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen off the field. That's a big component to it. So, you know, I just. With Lamar Jackson, I think sometimes, you know, there was no other Michael Jordan. I mean, Kobe Bryant was like Michael Light, but there was no other Michael. There was no other Charles Barkley. There was no other Kareem. Nobody else had the sky hook down. And I think Lamar Jackson, you just have to take him for what he is. He's the most athletic quarterback I've ever seen. He's wildly entertaining. He is a significantly better passer the last three to four years than anybody gives him credit for. And once again, he wins a big game in the afc. If you're playing Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football and the late window on Fox or cbs, you know, it doesn't matter what network you're paying. Those standalone games could be Amazon. Those are big games. I mean, the idea. This isn't baseball. You got 17 of them in 18 weeks. They're big games, especially when you get to November and December and January. So I never bought into. Lamar Jackson's not a big game player. Yes, in the playoffs, he has struggled against the Chiefs. So is Josh Allen. It's the Chiefs, arguably, if they win three straight, nobody's done it in league history. A lot of people lost to Tiger Woods. Right. A lot of people lost to Jordan. That were great teams. So Lamar tonight, I think these are final stats. 16 to 22, couple of touchdowns, 177 total yards. And that's what they asked of him. They don't need him to throw 34 times a game. That's not what Baltimore is. I worry about when Baltimore throws over 28 times a game, they get away from their identity. Tonight ran the ball. Lamar made, as usual, big throws when he had to. Big throw over the top. Great on third down, perfect on fourth down. Couple other notes here to throw at you. People will look at the Chargers, you know, and you hear this. Well, I mean, Justin Herbert can't win the big game. One of the things I would say is when you watch Justin Herbert, how often are his receivers truly open? He's having to throw them open. And when his pass protection's not great and in the second half, it wasn't as good. I think they're pretty good at tackle. They're not necessarily as good. Guard, center, guard. There's not a lot of separation. And I mean, there was a lot for Lamar Jackson tonight. A lot of it was underneath. There were open guys There were a lot of open guys, and Lamar found him. Now, he missed on a couple of sideline, sideline routes. He had an open receiver one time. I think it was in the. I think it was first half. Second quarter may have been third quarter, you know, because Lamar is often on the move when he throws. He can miss people. But I don't know how anybody can watch Lamar Jackson and not think he is one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. Just everybody's got different gifts. Everybody's got different gifts in life. I don't care if you're a broadcaster, you work in a hospital, or you're a quarterback. The great ones all have different styles, and I just can't quit. Baltimore owner, front office coach, quarterback. They've added playmakers last couple of years. Yeah, I said this today on FS1. I think I feel like there's four teams that feel like they should be favorites to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit and Philly. But I'm. I'm sorry, Baltimore, is it maybe foray, but it's. When you watch Baltimore go on the road, dominate the second half, playmakers all over the place. Derrick Henry, icing it, man. It's hard not to like that organization. There's just. This is not a bad night for the Chargers. It's a night of growth for the Chargers. It shows you exactly what they need to be the best teams. They have got to get two more playmakers. And for the record, moving off Keenan Allen was the right move for them. He's perfect for Caleb Williams. He was excellent yesterday against Minnesota, but he was beat up and he was expensive. And they wanted to keep Khalil mcinbosa. Right. They wanted to keep their Russians, and so. And they're paying Herbert. I get it. You know, you're trying to create a physical culture. So Harbaugh and the front office guys are like, let's move off the receivers. And that's their weakness. So step two, next year, I can guarantee you Quentin Johnson, that's not it. They're going after. They're going to draft one, maybe two receivers, maybe get one in free agency. They'll probably, you know, look to get a little younger at running back. You know, you worry about J.K. dobbins. He's had a couple of big injuries. I like him a lot, but he's had a couple of big injuries. They'll probably go get another tight end. You can see the plan. And with Jim Harbaugh, you got about two more drafts where he's going to have an advantage on the league because coaching at Michigan they had looks like a very good draft this year. He's probably got two more of those, maybe three where he's going to have recruited a majority of the guys he's drafting. It's just a big advantage. You know, it's. Bill Belichick's an all time great coach. Is he spending Saturday watching college football for 14 hours? Because Jim Harbaugh was spending 300 days a year, 340 days a year recruiting all these kids. He's going to draft last year and the next two to three years. So the Chargers are fine. They're just. They're like the 8th grade version. Kansas City is a senior and then and Baltimore's like a junior and it's like the Chargers are in eighth grade. They haven't gotten into the high school hallway yet. They just. This is step one. They've got moves to make. They'll make them. They're 6 and 0 against losing teams. They're 1 and 4 against winning teams. They're Baltimore three years ago, two years ago. They just got to add some pieces. Offensively, it feels inevitable. Philadelphia and Detroit in the NFC championship. Those are stacked rosters. The Rams actually have a great coach, excellent quarterback, nice weapons and a really strong defensive front. And it was completely worked tonight. Almost 500 yards for the Eagles, 255 yards for Saquon Barkley. The Eagles offensive line and the Lions offensive line are so much better than the rest of the NFL. Four of the five Eagle O linemen I think could get honors. Just dominating performance. And again, the Rams have some talented young guys up front, you know, and a lot of this Howie Roseman, the gm this league is. Front offices are so important. Teams like Cincinnati just don't make deals. And so it's Joe Burrow, a couple of your receivers and they just a limited roster. Philadelphia is constantly trade deadline. Usually not necessarily this year, but big players at the trade deadline, off season, free agency, draft day deals. And you see the value of it. I mean even without Devontae Smith at wide receiver because he's banged up, they lost slay the corner during the game. In every unit. The Eagles have a great, great player. And you know, I talked about this before the season. I said the idea of letting your best player go the New York Giants to go to the Eagles is insane. I mean, can you imagine, you know, the. I know it's not perfectly analogous, but the Chiefs, you know, letting the Chargers have Mahomes in his prime now that the Chargers have their own quarterback. But the best player on the New York Giants was allowed to go to their primary rival, Saquon Barkley. Think about this. Has 12 touchdowns this year. The Giants have 16 last in the NFL. Saquon has 10 plays this year of 30 plus yards. That's the same as the entire New York Giants offense. Giants let him walk. I think there's an argument. MVP this year. Boy, after tonight, I mean, rookie of the year has got to be Bo. Nick's at least offensive rookie of the year. I would not have a problem with Saquon Barkley being mvp. I would have no problem. I mean, the guy is. He is separated from the league at running back. Again, McCaffrey last year, fully healthy, but McCaffrey this year is not the same. Yeah, Saquon Barkley is. There's just nothing like him. I mean, every single carry looks like he's one broken tackle from going the distance. And he did it, you know, twice the night. Saquon Barkley is on pace to set the NFL rushing record and scrimmage yards record. So if you're thinking to yourself, man, he's having like a incredible year. Yeah, the most incredible year ever, potentially, for Saquon Barkley. It has like a KD to the warriors feel, where you're looking at a team that's good enough to win the title. And she's like, you know, we're just gonna. We're gonna throw in this guy that is, you know, the best at his position, and he'll finally actually have teammates that can help him and, you know, a staff that can help him and a quarterback who's a threat to run as well. So you can't just hone in on him. It's just insane. And by the way, the other player the Giants let go was a safety who now leads the NFL in interceptions. God, the Giants are so poorly run. But you know, Barkley, I've said before, I think the best running back I ever saw was Walter Payton. Barry Sanders, probably too Christian. McCaffrey's dexterity and his ability to do so many things probably puts him third. But McCaffrey does not look the same this year. And instead, Saquon Barkley was always an excellent player, but he is, and there's no other way to say this, his ability to start and stop has improved. He's just faster and quicker this year. The NFL season's rolling along. The contenders are separating from the pack. The one thing that hasn't changed this season is DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Our friends at the volume it's the number one place to bet touchdowns. Fade to the corner of the end zone. Running back breaks through the line. Gallop 60 yards for a touchdown. They don't care how you get them. They want to bet on touchdowns. And you should at DraftKings the best place to do it if you're ready to place your first bet, make it simple. A player scoring a touchdown. Just go to DraftKings sportsbook app takes 90 seconds. Download it. Make your pick. Here's a reason new customers do a touchdown dance of your own. Bet five bucks. That's it and get 150 bucks in bonus bets if your bet wins. 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- [22:57]
Jon Stewart
Jon Stewart is back in the host's chair at the Daily show. Which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition podcast. The Daily show podcast has Everything you need to stay on top of today's news and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show Ears edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:41]
John Middlekauff
All right, time for another Sunday hour and a half pod with John M. Former NFL scout. I don't remember having a Sunday where I was on the wrong side of virtually everything except the Broncos game. What a crazy. Every favorite I like, every dog I like failed to cover. Every favorite I was gun shy on covered. Let's start with Green Bay 38, San Francisco 10. So, I mean, you knew it was trouble. Bosa out. Brock. Purdy, out. Trent out. But as I was watching this, it was more than that because, I mean, Green Bay gave them opportunities. I think you have to have a hard look in the mirror and it's hard in the NFL when you still have really good people in the locker room. I think this franchise needs a complete reboot. If you look at the Detroit's, the Green Bays, Buffalo, Kansas City, the Chargers are up and coming. San Francisco is like an old fighter, John. They're like an old boxer. Last year, you know, they were hanging on, had one last good fight. Stop drafting receivers, rebuild the O lines and D lines. Bose is hurt, Kittle's hurt, McCaffrey's hurt. You know this organization well. But listen, Green Bay was going to win this game. You could tell. Two series in. I think San Francisco has to hyper aggressively reboot the franchise.
- [25:06]
Colin Cowherd
Well, it's tough when you're paying all these guys all this money. They've recently, I think the best thing that could happen to them because they're not making the playoffs, keep losing these games. I said, you know, today was not a great day for Dallas. Like they're not going to the playoffs. You win and ruins your draft position. If you're the 49ers, you want to be drafting seventh, not 15th. Right. Because we know quarterbacks usually go. And that gives you an opportunity to get one of the best players on the board. They play Buffalo next week, that's a loss. You know, the Rams, they still play the Cardinals, like they could lose these games and I would imagine they do. So I mean, I think you're looking at best a seven win team. And I think right now, you know, not winning maybe one more game, the rest of the Season, this Purdy thing, it was well reported today. Like they're not even sure what's going on. Bosa hurt one hip, then he heard another. Trent's just a weathered, you know, older player. This team, you know what they need, they kind of need to get bounced in the first round or I mean, you know, not even make it to the first round of the playoffs and get extra time off and get to reset. It happened to the warriors. Remember they had 20, 20, 20, 20 was really rough couple years. Then they were fresh. Then they won a championship.
- [26:18]
John Middlekauff
Well, remember the Niners last Super bowl loss went 6 and 10 were injury ravaged.
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Colin Cowherd
Yeah. So I, to me, the best, easiest way for them to get players. They're not going to have a lot of cap space because of all the big cap, you know, hits they have with players is to have like the eighth pick in the draft. Because it's not just the first round, it's every round. And they've proven to be able to draft really well in the fourth, fifth, sixth round. When you're drafting in the top 10, you know, there aren't really many excuses to miss like when they're drafting in the late 20s. So I think the best case scenario, roll out the team. They're rolling out and they're going to. Their schedule's hard. I mean, they still play the Dolphins, who look good right now, obviously they got the Bills next week. They're just going to naturally lose a lot of games, which I think is really going to benefit them long term.
- [27:04]
John Middlekauff
Well, you know, it's interesting. I was watching Caleb Williams today who was just. He's such a talented guy. Bo Nix looks fantastic. Jaden Daniels has hit the Cliff Kingsbury wall, you know, around Thanksgiving. Even in college, his teams tended to swoon late. And I look at Brock Purdy, they're going to keep him, right? I mean, you can't pay him 50 million, but they're going to broker a deal here probably in the 40s. Is that what you think?
- [27:27]
Colin Cowherd
Do they. Do they have to, though? Colin, why, why are we always in such a rush? Like he's, he's not struggling to put food on the table. He's making millions of dollars off the field. It's an incredible spot for him. With Kyle, if you win six or seven games and listen, this hasn't been his fault necessarily, but why are we in a rush to spend 50 million when clearly, what, there are four or five guys in the league that you feel really good about it and then the next five guys making that much Money are somewhat of a roller coaster. You know, I would have no problem giving him that. I don't know. Kirk cousins, Daniel Jones, 80, 90. And everyone's like, well he'll never take that. Well, then we won't do a deal. You know, if he would have got me back to the NFC championship game this year, you wouldn't had a choice. But they're not sniffing the playoffs. He's injured now we're playing it out. Like the problem with Dallas playing it out is you knew how it was going to play out. Why can't we just take a deep breath and see how, see what happens? Where is he going? Yeah, what's the better situation? Who's, who's lining up one, he's not a free agent but who's lining up on the open market to give him, let's just say $150 million a year. Who are you bidding against? Yeah, so they regret the IU contract. They have to. If they could do that over again, they would have traded him before the draft. I mean 100%. There's not even. So let's take a deep breath. Let's just play it out. And that's what I, I would say most of my life. What up until the last four or five years. That's usually how business used to happen. Unless your name was like Peyton Manning or Ladanian Tomlinson or some like all time great player. Most players usually had to fight for their cash and now just because the league's flush with it, we just give it away. And again I have no problem giving it to the elite guys. Help Trent Williams. You need a boost, I'll give you a boost. Brock Purdy, like, let's just take a deep breath everybody. And that's been my stance all along is why can't. What was the rush to pay Trevor Lawrence? Does any team regret a contract more than the Jags? Like five weeks into the contract? At least two has proven like but again Tua's not making 200 plus.
- [29:33]
John Middlekauff
That's right. That's right.
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Colin Cowherd
So in the Purdy thing was being talked about. Well, it's the Trevor Lawrence and it's like, well if I'd give him $140 million right now. But that's not what the ballpark that has been discussed.
- [29:46]
John Middlekauff
Yeah, I mean it's such a big decision. I'd peel off some of the players. I would have moved off Debo last year. I wouldn't have paid iuk. I think they've been a little negligent on the offensive Line, they've attacked the defensive line. I think they've been a bit negligent on the offensive line. I just don't.
- [30:07]
Colin Cowherd
They're not Colin. They're not negligent. They've been. Kyle and the offensive line coach have been open about their philosophical belief of skill players are more important than offensive linemen. Oh, you can tell they believe in that zone scheme that I can take mainly average guys. Obviously Trent is their outlier. But how'd they get Trent? They got him for a third round pick. Right. And the only reason he didn't go to Minnesota, who was offering away more, is he refused to go there because he wanted to play for his guy, Kyle. So they've openly said, yeah, we don't take offensive lineman if we believe a skill guys on the board. Higher the football I was around growing up, you know, with coach Hill who came from Belichick and then Andy Reed and Howie Roseman, they would laugh at that. They would take offensive lineman in the first round and then they take him again in the second round.
- [30:51]
John Middlekauff
Bo Nicks has completely surpassed Jaden Daniels for offensive rookie of the year. Like, it's not. I mean, he's to the last six games. It's not close. Bo Nix looks confident, accurate, poised, athletic. Jaden's loss is fastball. And so, you know, I talked to Steve Keim. I said, you know, can you explain the Cliff Kingsbury College and professional swoon in the second half of the season? And Steve just said he's a very smart, creative guy who works in the summer to come in with new stuff and maybe the league catches up with him, that he doesn't pivot to the second pitch after he's brought in new stuff. But Steve didn't really have an answer. But, you know, he said, hardworking, clever, smart. He does come in every year with new stuff. But I was sitting there watching that thing today, and by the way, Washington almost pulled it off. But once again, Washington missed pats, they missed a field goal. Special teams in this league are. I don't remember a year that special teams decided more football games. They're just terrible. But I looked at this and I thought to myself today, if you could redraft all the quarterbacks, and you have to consider Sean Payton and the bone steal. If you could redraft the quarterbacks, would you draft them differently? Forget the teams, would you redraft them differently?
- [32:12]
Colin Cowherd
Well, I think Caleb's at least quieted. And listen, I was starting to wonder, what the hell are we watching these last two weeks? Make you feel a lot better. I mean, today he made throws where you're like, that's what a number one overall pick looks like. No disputing. Here's where I will defend Jaden Daniels, because today he was running around pretty well. I came into the season, I know you picked him to make the playoffs. I thought this was more like a six or seven win team. It was going to be an impressive operation. But wins, loss, were not going to be what it looked like they were going to be three weeks ago. I don't think they're that talented, Colin. Honestly, I don't think their team's that good.
- [32:49]
John Middlekauff
Yeah, Terry McLaurin is.
- [32:50]
Colin Cowherd
Yeah, Terry McClaren's good. Their running backs getting banged up. Brian Robinson's a good player, but he was in and out. So if they're not running the ball well. And here's the one thing, and I always thought this about Chip Kelly and, you know, Mike Leach never came to the NFL, but Cliff's a good example. These spread offenses right early on in the season, rapid fire defenses aren't as dialed, take advantage of it as the season goes on. Weather changes a little bit. It gets a lot more physical. Well, what Dallas happened today, Parsons is back now. Like their defense is a little bit more, I would say, legitimate with him in the game. And they were just ready for a brawl. Like, they got pride. I mean, they got a lot of high pay.
- [33:28]
John Middlekauff
And Cooper Rush is accurate, moves the ball for sure.
- [33:31]
Colin Cowherd
And it was a physical game. And I think sometimes the more physical you are with more of the quote unquote spread offenses, you can shove them around a little bit. And I think that's really what's happened, in my opinion. Now, you know, one stat I saw on the Denver game is Bo Nicks hasn't turned the ball over in 14 quarters. One pass was on a Hail Mary, but Jaden Daniels had three picks a day.
- [33:53]
John Middlekauff
Yeah, right.
- [33:54]
Colin Cowherd
So it's like you start turning the ball over, you start forcing things. Games are a little closer. The other thing is in the NFL, you know, regardless of records, I. I've always thought, you know, as the season goes on, like, where do you get a lot of upsets in the NFL are division games in November and December with a good team versus a bad team? We see it every year.
- [34:14]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [34:15]
Colin Cowherd
Like today, who in their right mind would have given Dallas a shot? But you could tell halfway through you're like, this is a real game. This is going to be tough. Well, the tight quarterback, and all of.
- [34:24]
John Middlekauff
A sudden he played great. Yeah, no, it's. It's. You know, I think when I looked at that game, I'm like, oh, Dallas, you screwed up your draft spot. Yeah, I think. I think to your point, I think we have to take a deep breath. Washington replaced everybody. They came in with a new quarterback and a new offense and Cliff Kingsbury's history of starting the first six to eight weeks quickly, but then eventually regression to the mean. Whereas Denver is better than people think. Denver's got some really good players. Denver has an elite offensive coach. Denver has a college quarterback with 61 starts. And Denver has Cortland Sutton, who, like Terry McLaurin, is just a big target that's open all the time. And I want to pivot to that game because I. We haven't talked a lot of Denver on our Sunday podcast. So Denver beats the Raiders 29 night team, the only game all day. If I would have bet every game, I think I would have gotten right. So Bo nicks, his last eight games. John, 15 touchdowns, two picks, and a 104 passer rating. In those games, they're five and three if a field goal is not blocked. Against the Chiefs, they're six and two. Like, we have to acknowledge now, Denver in dead cap money, hell, that sacrificed draft capital. I think this is a good team. I watched them. Again, the Raiders don't have a lot at quarterback, but they've got some talent. I think we have to be honest about this. I think Denver's pretty good football team.
- [35:52]
Colin Cowherd
Well, Colin, I think we could be seven days away from them being officially, I guess unofficially a playoff team because they play Cleveland this week and Miami, who's obviously got it together with TUA back, a lot of people think that they are alive and well. Well, they play the packers this week. So if Miami loses and they are then 5 and 7 and Denver wins, they would be 8 and 5. Like, I have a hard time seeing Miami catch them. So this is a massive week. Like, I. I think Denver's in the playoffs if they handle business this week, because all of a sudden you start doing the math, like, they're getting a nine, no doubt. But I think they end up with 10. And that's. They basically doubled their win total like this. This has been a huge year for Sean Payne. Honestly, it's been a win win for Russell and Sean. Yes, some. Some marriages break up, go other places happy as hell with your separate significant others. That's how it's worked out here. So it's just. It was never going to work. You thought it. We all thought it. Anyone with a brain that knows these two personalities, even if you don't know them personally, you're like, this isn't going to work. And they broke up and it's gone well for both.
- [36:56]
John Middlekauff
Listen, right?
- [36:57]
Colin Cowherd
And Sean, and Sean Payton I think was pretty lucky that, you know, there was six quarterbacks in the, you know, because a lot of them were going high and it just happened to be a very unique draft because it's not like they were drafted fourth. Right. So he needed some of the stuff was out of his control and it worked out perfectly. The type guy that he would like is the last guy off the board in the top 15. I mean it's. It was a historic draft, right? Six guys go in the top 12, 13 picks, we might never see that again.
- [37:24]
John Middlekauff
And Denver has in nine of the last 12 games. And this is so big for a rookie quarterback. They've held opponents under 20. So when Bo Nicks maybe struggles today a little bit in a couple of drives, they're not giving up points.
- [37:39]
Colin Cowherd
So their DBs. Their DBs are good. I mean, every time I look up, obviously certain is good. They have all these other guys. This is why Vance Joseph, which Sean deserves credit for, because you give up 70 points in a game, I would have been like, Sean, this. You might have to fire this guy by midseason and stick it out by the end of the year. Last year they're playing good defense. This year, I think that has to be the most surprised unit of the league. They feel just on the eye test one of the best defenses in the league. I know Gardner Minshew today, but the score was a little closer. It never once crossed my mind that the Raiders were going to win that game today.
- [38:11]
John Middlekauff
No, but they've been doing this now for two months. I mean, go to the Kansas City game, they outplayed the Kansas City Chiefs and so on the road, that's where.
- [38:20]
Colin Cowherd
I think, you know, depending on how this Denver more than likely would probably be the seven seat Bill Baltimore, you know, Baltimore already has four losses, but if you're telling me two of the three wild cards are Denver and the Chargers, like anytime you play your wild card weekend, you're playing an excellent defense, like you could lose. You know, this is not a 3, 7 game series. All of a sudden you have a shitty half. You're down 14 to three in the third quarter. We've seen this every year. So you got two teams separate from obviously Herbert's, you know, an elite player. But even with a rookie quarterback, we have Seen rookie quarterbacks have success in the playoffs because they don't have to do that much. And that's kind of, you know, Bo Nix, as long as he didn't turn the ball over and their defense played a high level game, why. Why couldn't they win it 17 to 14 or 15 to 13? They're very comfortable playing that way.
- [39:10]
John Middlekauff
Think about this. And I watched them today. Sean Payton does such a good job of two things, defining. He gives Bo Nicks about eight layups. He gives him a lot of easy stuff. And then Bo Nicks deserves credit because he is constantly seeking Cortland Sutton. And Cortland Sutton is a basketball player with a helmet. I mean, he's big.
- [39:30]
Colin Cowherd
Touchdown today.
- [39:30]
John Middlekauff
Oh, in the corner. Jesus. Big, long, athletic. I've always liked Cortland Sutton, so. And Mims is. It can be a burner. I like their backs, but you can see that he gets Bo Nick's easy stuff. And then Bo Bo like Russell does with George Pickens, Bo just attacks Cortland Sutton. But take out Annie Reid. Just take Annie Reid out. Belichick's now not coaching on any given Sunday. I'd argue Sean Payton's as good a coach as the league has. I absolutely believe that. I think Andy Reid's the best, maybe, arguably ever. But now that Belichick's out, take out Andy Reid. He can go toe to toe. I mean, I love Sean McVeigh. They've had some bad offensive halves when people are healthy. So I think a lot of this is. You know, it's just funny because Sean's done things to alienate people. He's outspoken. Remember, he took a shot at the Jets. He was right, by the way. You know, he took a shot at Nat Hackett. He was right, by the way. But, you know, when you lead with your chin, you offend a lot of people. You cannot watch Denver and not see the coaching. It's. It's. I mean, to me, if you gave coach of the year today, I don't know how you'd. I don't know who you'd pick. I think Sean Payton's. Now, after that Tomlin timeout mess, clock management mess, I think I'd give it to Sean Payton.
- [40:49]
Colin Cowherd
You know, I think it's the one award that honestly, as time goes on, is irrelevant. Right? Like who? Belichick, Andy Reid. They don't even have that many. Andy Reid doesn't have one. As a Kansas City Chiefs head coach, like Jim Harbaugh took over a team that won five games, they're probably going to win 11 or 12. And I think the way you just described Sean, I think Jim is definitely mellowed out in his older age, but he was a lot like that early on in Michigan and definitely with San Francisco and both. I mean, look at those two guys. If you would have said that the Chargers in Denver, whatever the odds, if you would have parlayed those two teams to make the playoffs, Colin, they might make the playoff. They might be resting starters by the last week of the season. And it's, it's not a coincidence that those guys. Here's the other thing and Sean, once he hired Dennis Allen, their defense was excellent the last three or four years with the Saints. Jim, both offensive guys, former quarterbacks, value defense, right. And will pay for it and invest in it. And that really matters. And I don't think it's shocking. And this is why you're watching the Raiders today. You're like, can you imagine being the redhead stepchild of your division when you're in that, you know, with those three coaches, like, what do you even do? Like, you better hope Belichick picks up your call this off season because if he doesn't, you got no shot.
- [42:10]
John Middlekauff
I watched Bryce Young today, who's arguably the best quarterback ever in Southern California high school history, who was dominant in college. I ran into his high school coach the other night at modern day, a legend who's retired. And I said, best player you ever had. You know, first, second name out was Bryce Young. He's like, he's just a remarkable player, great kid. I don't think Carolina's going to draft a quarterback. I think the class is too weak. I think they think Bryce is better than anybody outside of Shadow Sanders. I think Carolina is going to give Bryce Young another year. What say you?
- [42:44]
Colin Cowherd
Yeah, I would say he's done a lot like his version of what Caleb has done these last couple of weeks. You know, over the last three games for him, he's looked like a real player. Now, if you could do it all over again, would you have mortgaged what you did to get him? I mean, I think probably not. I would not. But he has been more than respectable these last three weeks and he, you know, confidence is a powerful thing for young players. Listen, he's not, he's a little small, not a great athlete, but he does have a natural feel for the position. And that's what was so head scratching when they essentially had to bench him is he was inaccurate. He was making awful decisions. He just looked lost. And maybe sometimes like you just Take a reset. Listen, I think Anthony Richardson, even today they kind of got work. Just has looked a lot better. He. I thought he looked a lot better today. Take a deep breath. I don't know if Bryce needed to be like humbled like Anthony Richardson, but he definitely, like, just take a step back. Was probably healthy for him. And he looks like a real NFL quarterback now. Their team, a lot of question marks. Is their coaching staff good enough? Is their talent? Long way to go, but I'm with you. Like, what, are you going to draft Cam Ward or Quinn Ewers?
- [43:52]
John Middlekauff
Well, same thing in Tennessee. They beat the Texans today. And so that's. I mean, this is not a game that's riveting, but the Titans 32, Texans 27. So listen, the last six games, C.J. stroud is really struggling. They went and got. Stefan Diggs should have probably addressed the interior O line. CJ Stroud is hurrying everything. He is struggling. He has a 74 passer rating in his last six games. He is really struggling. But I watched Will Leviss today, and my take is with Bryce Young and Will Leviss, I'm just keeping him. I'm giving him another year. I mean, hell, the Giants paid Daniel Jones. I don't think Daniel's as natural as Bryce Young. I don't think he's as. I don't think he has the arm of Will Leviss. And my take, watching Will Levis today, the last two weeks, I'm kind of like, yeah, they got boat race by Detroit. They don't have the same level of players, but I watched Will Levis and Bryce Young, and my take is we like CJ Stroud and we see what he's going through. And Houston's got better players than the, than the Titans. I thought Will Levis today bought himself absolutely another year. I mean, you can go get Sam Darnold. The market. I think they're just going to stick with him.
- [45:01]
Colin Cowherd
Yeah, I mean, you know, Will did give you the one pick six.
- [45:04]
John Middlekauff
No, that's.
- [45:05]
Colin Cowherd
He, he. He may. He did make some fantastic throws down the field. Something is really off with Houston. I mean, they have not looked good in a while, even in their wins. It's just they looked a lot different. Maybe it was their schedule last year. Obviously, you know, protecting CJ has been a problem, but they look. They look like a lock to be a one and done. You know, if you tell me they're playing the Chargers or the Ravens in the first round, the way they're playing, I'd say sayonara. But But I hear you, like, this is. This league's hard. And I think sometimes, you know, these teams get so caught up on these shiny targets, it's like, let's use Diggs for an example. So you're telling me the Bills. And listen, I know people with the Texans, they like Diggs.
- [45:45]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [45:46]
Colin Cowherd
But even, like, he hasn't been a personal personality problem. But let's just talk about the player standpoint. The Bills, who have been one of the best operations in the league, minus, like the Chiefs for the last four years, are completely out on the guy. You already have Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who are clearly a good young nucleus. With Schultz, you're going to add a running back. Like, your offense is not. Line of scrimmage, Line of scrimmage, line of scrimmage. Yet you go do that. Like, I think that's one where you're like, we didn't need to do that.
- [46:13]
John Middlekauff
That's right.
- [46:13]
Colin Cowherd
It doesn't make sense. We should have been extra aggressive for another guard, for another center, for another D tackle. That's where we're going to separate ourselves from the line of scrimmage. They felt like they wanted to go more and be this spread it around team, and that's kind of what they look like now. They're just kind of soft.
- [46:28]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [46:28]
Colin Cowherd
And their offense gets shoved around today. I mean, one thing the Titans have had all year long is their defense is pretty good.
- [46:34]
John Middlekauff
Yes.
- [46:34]
Colin Cowherd
You remove that game against the Lions where they scored 75 points, like the Titans, defense has not been the problem. And now Will Levis, I think his statistics over the last couple of weeks have been a lot better. And what have they been? They've been a lot more competitive.
- [46:46]
John Middlekauff
Yeah. I mean, I think you have to strongly consider this quarterback class where Shadour Sanders is the best product, project prospect. But it's not great. I mean, he's got. There's some ego, there's some emotion. He holds on.
- [47:00]
Colin Cowherd
I don't think he would have gone if you put him in, in this last draft.
- [47:04]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [47:04]
Colin Cowherd
He doesn't go ahead of Caleb. No, he does not. Jaden's more physically gifted. I. I think there's. I would say above a 50 chance that they still would go with Drake May in New England.
- [47:15]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [47:16]
Colin Cowherd
Bigger arm, cold weather like that factors in. So he wouldn't have even potentially gone. Definitely in the top two, but probably in the top three of this last quarterback class. That's not, that's not even a shock. I mean, Drake May was. Nick Saban tried to give him $5 million the previous year.
- [47:32]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [47:32]
Colin Cowherd
So I think sometimes we act like Drake May was just this overdrafted scrub and they got their butt kicked today, but he was, he's a legitimate prospect coming out of college.
- [47:42]
John Middlekauff
Well, and I think Sean Payton identified very early. Bo Nicks was his Drew Brees. So Shadur is benefiting greatly. Cam Ward is a lot of backyard football, a very edgy personality. And I'll leave it at that. He's a very edgy personality. Not for everybody. Jalen Milroe is not very fluid. Big strong kid, great parents, wonderful kid, completely coachable. He's Anthony Richardson, but better at this point. But he's not a natural. Like he can make great throws, but he doesn't feel like he's played enough quarterback. Like he needs a lot of work. So my take is if I got Will Levis and I look at it and I think, well, maybe Will's not Shador Sanders, but if I'm, if I've got five wins and I'm drafting nine, I'm not moving up for Shador Sanders. I'm just staying with Will Levis for a year. Virgin Voyages is the adults only destination for anybody seeking restorative, luxurious and award winning vacations at sea. Always included luxury over a thousand bucks in values included in every sailing and everything. They offer menus created by Michelin star chefs to their cabins designed by top international firms is award winning. Relax, restore, revive. Your cabin was meticulously designed to give you a gorgeous place to feel renewed. Swing into much deserved me time on your private terrace in your hand woven Virgin red hammock as you gaze at the glittering sea views. Exclusively adult kid free cruises. They cater our food, entertainment and activities to adult tastes. Explore the Caribbean this winter on one of their week long experiences. Epic, never a dull moment on Virgin Voyages sailing all year long. Book now@virgin voyages.com or contact your travel advisor.
- [49:41]
Jon Stewart
Jon Stewart is back in the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Earth Edition Podcast. The Daily show podcast has everything you need to stay on top of today's news and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show Ears Edition on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [50:26]
John Middlekauff
All right, it is time for another edition, the Thanksgiving edition. It's a tasty one. Sharper square Chad Millman co host of the Favorites all odds provided by DraftKings so this line I didn't understand. There's a couple lines this week I didn't quite get. So the Steelers are a much better football operation than Joe Burrow and the Bengals. And I've talked about this before, the Bengals moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before they paid T. Higgins and Jamar Chase. They're just a cheap franchise. Yeah, Pittsburgh awful loss is going to be feisty. Pittsburgh as a dog is great. Burrow's wonderful, but not when he's sitting on the bench watching a run game. Dominate time of possession. I like the Steelers as a dog plus three. It's a much better team. Sharper square.
- [51:18]
Doug Gottlieb
Yeah, of course, it's the sharp play. It makes no sense that the number is even close to three.
- [51:26]
John Middlekauff
I don't get it.
- [51:27]
Doug Gottlieb
It's been, it's been bouncing around it. What? It opened at two and a half, got that up to three, came back to two and a half because the wise guys know Mike Tomlin as a dog. 62% on the road. He is the best coach as a dog this generation. 20 years. He is 62% as a dog in the division on the road, 64% when the spread is between 1 and 3. I do believe that a lot of people are just enamored with how Joe Burrow has been playing this year. He's putting up pinball numbers, right? But this is a terrible defense. And while they've been off for two weeks, the Steelers have been off for 10 days and it's a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe and they're still in a position where they could win that division. So you're not going to want to lose an in division game. I'd bet the Steelers on the money line.
- [52:27]
John Middlekauff
Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a half. The Vikings. So off a bye. Arizona was a mess and a lot of it was Seattle got a consistent pass rush. I don't think Minnesota's pass rush will be that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they can run the ball, is a really, really effective team. I think they'll have a better chance to run the ball here. Arizona's inconsistent, but this is a team that has for the last five weeks. I mean, they went to Miami and won and they went to Santa Clara and won. I think their personnel is better than people think. They have elite players. Buddha Baker's elite, Conor's elite. McBride is a tremendous tight end. Kyler Murray's elite. They don't have big names on the interior D line, but they play well. They play above their weight. So I just think. I think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't really bury people. Go look at the Jacksonville game. Go look at the Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia. They don't blow over you. They make mistakes. They're missing their great left tackle. They're a good team. They're not special. They're well coached with some nice playmakers. But you watch the Minnesota game, that's a go either way football game. It doesn't look like either team is significantly more talented. And one is in turmoil and you're like, I don't know. They kind of look the same. I'm taking the three and a half with Arizona. Sharper square.
- [53:50]
Doug Gottlieb
Eh, it's kind of an ish. Like there's no consensus. Not a lot of interest, to be honest, from the wise guys. Like there's. There's some games on the board that the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on. This is not one of them. A lot of the wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know. We said last week they put all their cards on the table. Right. Pun intended. And they come off the by. Kyler kind of looks disinterested. So what are you going to be getting the second week going against Minnesota, which still has a lot to lose. And you're right, they. They gave it away against the Bears. Like they. The Bears should not even have been close to turning that game into an overtime game. So they come out with a little more intensity this week. It's just a hard one. Handicap, I think. I think the line is kind of right exactly where it is.
- [54:44]
John Middlekauff
Okay, a favorite. I like Buffalo at home, minus seven. Well rested and waiting for a Niners team. Bosa didn't practice, Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if that locker room. I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's a very average D line. Buffalo's rested, they're healthy. You know, they're a team that. They're playing for the number one seed here. I. And by the way, Allen, the backup for San Francisco, that's not going to work. That's just not good enough. And Brock Purdy, who never has a great arm, is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Again. This is not a guy with a whip to begin with. This is the rare. I think the niners are living off reputation. I just don't think they're a very special football team. Five and seven in their last 12. I'm going to lay the seven. I like Buffalo, Sharper, square, sharp.
- [55:35]
Doug Gottlieb
I mean the wise guys have been betting Buffalo. It opened at six and a half, it's got up to seven. I think the real question why it sort of hasn't exploded and we saw this last week with the packers is Brock Purdy. What's his status going to be? So no one's going to over invest until they get a real sense of what if, whether or not he's going to be playing. I agree with you about Nick Bosa. If you watch that game against the Seahawks, he was the difference. When he was playing, they were in control of that game. Geno Smith was harassed, he was making bad decisions and bad throws. When he was no longer playing in that game, Geno Smith goes on a drive in the final two minutes that wins in the game. And now all of a sudden it's propelling saddle into Seattle and everyone thinking they're a super special team and they could potentially win the NFC West. Nick Bosa not being there and Trent Williams, those are, those are massive, massive missing pieces.
- [56:34]
John Middlekauff
I like the Titans plus five and a half at the Commanders. I think Cliff Kingsbury does this. He single guy a lot of time in the summer, plays some golf and comes up with a new offense and I think it fools people. And then all of a sudden about mid October to late October, if you look at his history in college or pro football, people catch up and then you're left with a September offense in November. And I just don't think the Commanders. I mean, Jesus, it's like the Cowboys had the commander's playbook. They would flush Daniels out of the pocket and there were guys just waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good up front defensively, very disruptive. I think Will Leviss still makes. He's got that Will Levis, Carson Wentz, reckless gene. But you know what? I think he's played himself into another year starting and I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't feel as apprehensive. I just don't. I'm not giving up five and a half points for anybody against the Commanders. I think they're just right now an average roster. They have laid out their cards. Everybody's seen them. I'm taking the five and a half. I think Tennessee's a tough, physical team, as Houston found out. Sharper square.
- [57:51]
Doug Gottlieb
Yeah, you nailed it. It's totally sharp. The, the interesting thing here is the line moved from six and a half to six to five and a half early in the week. And, and for what we're talking about here, early in the week was really Monday.
- [58:02]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [58:02]
Doug Gottlieb
And that was a consensus professional move. I bet it at five and a half. It moved up a little bit to six, six and a half again and now it's come back down. I couldn't agree with you more. The cliff. Cliff. The Cliff Kingsbury cliff. Midseason is real, statistically, right. Texas Tech, they would get to the middle point of the year, they would lose. Cardinals, they would get to the middle point of the year, they would lose.
- [58:31]
John Middlekauff
Yep.
- [58:31]
Doug Gottlieb
If you unpack that, it's. It's somewhat circumstantial. Right. You could look at Texas Tech and be like, okay, they play patsies in the beginning of the year. They get into the conference, the schedule gets harder.
- [58:42]
John Middlekauff
Right.
- [58:42]
Doug Gottlieb
And the Cardinals. A couple times he had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have the full scope of his talent, and all of a sudden the team isn't as good. But it's happening again. It's happening this time because Jaden Daniels is injured and has been playing injured. And after that rocket start the first four weeks of the year, he's barely completing 70% of his passes after start where he was completing 80%. Right. You look at the flip side and yes, Tennessee, they have a very good defense. They've been playing better. Last week they gave up eight sacks and Will Levis had a pick six. And they still beat the Texans, who have a better quarterback than the Washington Commanders. And I do think that this is going to be the worst defense Will Levis has faced this season. And he has an opportunity here to be pressured a little bit less and get the ball, push the ball downfield, which is what he's really good at. And that's when he's most comfortable. So wise guys are with you. That's a sharp play.
- [59:41]
John Middlekauff
I don't know how many people will watch this. I like the Texans -4 at the Jags. I don't know what the Jags are playing for. I think it's kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue with protection, guard, center, guard. But they've got just simply better players playing for more and frankly, a better quarterback. If Trevor Lawrence plays, he's not close to 100%. I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage. This feels like my second favorite bet of the week. I'm going to take the Texans -4 at the Jags Sharper Square.
- [60:24]
Doug Gottlieb
Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from five to four and a half to four.
- [60:33]
John Middlekauff
Wow.
- [60:34]
Doug Gottlieb
Yeah, it's, it's an interesting one for, for me, personally, I agree with you. It's a pass. I think the wise guys are looking at CJ Stroud and thinking he's average. He. It's, it's not that he's not progressing. It's that he's.
- [60:50]
John Middlekauff
The protection's terrible.
- [60:51]
Doug Gottlieb
Like, well, he's playing like a normal quarterback. Right. And like his interception percentage was so low last year that it doubles this year, and all of a sudden it's at league average. And everyone thinks, oh, my God, there's something wrong with him. They're playing different defenses against him. So his coverage is different and he hasn't had his best players. So I. And the offensive line protection is terrible, truly terrible.
- [61:15]
John Middlekauff
You can tell he's letting go of everything a second early. Everything.
- [61:18]
Doug Gottlieb
Yeah. And he's also a gunslinger, right? Like, he likes to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive. As he said last week, you got to shoot your shot. So I think that the wise guys are looking at this and saying, division game on the road. Jags, last chance to make a stand. If Trevor Lawrence is playing, they're sort of betting on the opportunity that he might be playing, and they thought the number was a little bit too high. So they're, they're, they're taking a piece of that while they can.
- [61:43]
John Middlekauff
I always have a game every week. I want your expertise. So I think the Chargers are a better team than the Falcons, but I also think the Falcons are rested, they're at home, and I think they're more explosive offensively. I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this now a couple times this year because they don't have playmakers. Quentin Johnson officially can't catch that. They score basically on big drives, nine play drives, ten play drives, eleven play drives. Well, you're asking for perfect football. You know, Philadelphia can have penalties. Saquon Barkley rips off a 57 yarder, A.J. brown over the top. You need freebies. You can't live on 12 play drives. And that's what the Chargers have to do. And the middle of their interior of their own line isn't good enough. So they get holding calls. They don't have receivers that separate. I'm guessing the Sharps, like Atlanta, plus one at home.
- [62:41]
Doug Gottlieb
Back and forth, the line actually moved up from one and a half to two to two and a half. And I think that the sentiment is that people were actually impressed with the Chargers and that the difference in that game against the Ravens was J.K. dobbins leaving the game. And it completely changed the tenor. And you're right about the offensive line, especially the interior of the offensive line. That's where the Ravens were getting pressure. The Falcons can't get pressure. They're not the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure at all. And so that's not expected to be a factor for the Chargers, I will tell you. It's. It's sort of. And now the line has come back down, which tells you that the wise guys felt the line had gotten too high and there's been some buyback. And by the way, this is a very common thing. There are a lot of professional bettors who might like the Falcons and want the line to be a little bit different. So early in the week, what do they do? They bet on the Chargers, say five grand, ten grand, whatever. Move the line up. And then when it gets to a certain point, they bet 50 grand, 60 grand on the Falcons. Right. So they're paying a little bit of a premium to get the line to move so they can get better price on the team they really want. That could have happened this week. I don't know. I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no. It's a long way of saying there's no real consensus here on what this. What this game should be.
- [64:04]
John Middlekauff
Okay, Chad. And there's always one that I missed. Seahawks at the jets is interesting to me. I kind of like Kansas City. Big favorite over the Raiders. I'll stay away. What's the one I missed?
- [64:18]
Doug Gottlieb
Well, look, the wise guys like the Jets, I'm sorry to say. It's so interesting because on one New York team, you've got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've got players who are frustrated with the coaching, you've got an owner who is incredibly frustrated with how the personnel has sort of fleshed out. And then you've got another New York team where the owner is basically entering his Montgomery Burns phase. Right? He is taking a helicopter, landing it on the field. The GM is standing next to a Coach when the helicopter lands and said, if I don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you. And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is after the coach, the owner had fired the coach without telling anybody and after the owner had traded for a receiver without telling anybody and openly opined, should we be bencing Aaron Rodgers? And yet the wise guys, they've been betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot more against Seattle. I think part of it is like, this is the time to grab a number that is overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. Um, so they're on that. The wise guys. Of course they're going to be on the Raiders. It's not even. It's not even a question. They're. They. They were on the Raiders when the line was at 13 and a half 13. 12 and a half 12. It got that back up by the public because Aiden O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise guys are now just going to wait, see how much more they can, how much of a better price they can get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're going to buy the Raiders one team that I asked you to look at last week. Carolina Panthers.
- [66:09]
John Middlekauff
What's the line?
- [66:10]
Doug Gottlieb
The line is 6.
- [66:11]
John Middlekauff
So the Carolina Panthers.
- [66:13]
Doug Gottlieb
Tampa Bay hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- [66:15]
John Middlekauff
So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes. Well, I mean, Tampa.
- [66:23]
Doug Gottlieb
The wise guys like it. I don't tell you.
- [66:25]
John Middlekauff
Well, Baker played perfect, so they come back down to earth. I. I'll be honest with you. I think both Will Leviss and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina, respectively, in a weak college quarterback draft class, have extended their starting franchise career one more year. I think Bryce Young and Will Levis look like. Let's give them another year.
- [66:44]
Doug Gottlieb
I think that's 100% accurate, which is what Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so, you know, in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts.
- [66:55]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [66:55]
Doug Gottlieb
And keeping them in the game. And every time you looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense, it's not as good as Kansas City's. They're playing at home. Six points in the division is a ton. You're getting an inflation on the line because of what the Bucks just did to the Giants. So the wise guys like the Panthers and look, I love the Panthers to start the year and they burn me consecutive weeks. So I sort of stayed away from them and even publicly talking about them. I went back on them big last week and I was glad that I did. I'm a Little anxious going back to the well and the Panthers again, but I have bet the Panthers at plus six. I just feel like it's still the right spot. It's going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't this week.
- [67:45]
John Middlekauff
So I don't throw you curves, but I want to talk usc, Notre Dame, Notre Dame getting plus seven and a half so early in the week. I like Notre Dame. Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game. No turnovers. They are a team that runs the football. Usc, not great defending the run. And I think they're well coached. I like their culture. USC is playing a quarterback who started the year on the bench. Completes about 55% of his throws. Much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss, but much more athletic. They can move the pocket, which Lincoln riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons. They're at home, no pressure. I mean, and I think usc, they beat lsu, they beat UCLA and they had Penn State beat. They're not bad. Every USC game looks the exact same. It's close. They lead in the fourth, then they even lose to Maryland. So my take is I've gone back and said, you know what, they're going to lose, but I'm taking the hook. I'm taking USC plus seven and a half. What are the Sharps saying on that?
- [68:51]
Doug Gottlieb
Yeah, if you're getting the hook at home, you should be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in a game like this. The challenge, with everything you've said, is the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Every game, every win, every margin of victory, every optic is going to matter going forward. And I know, like they're locked in with Oregon and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas, like those are the teams that the College Football Playoff is really thinking about is one through four. But Notre Dame is still playing for something that matters in terms of positioning with the people with the teams behind them. So that's what scares me a little bit about this game. And usc, you're not wrong. But some of these games you're talking about, they were earlier in the year and they were a different team. And there's been a lot of turmoil with that organization the past month between the changing of the quarterbacks, between the fines, you know, people, the recruits who have been decommitting and going other places. You know that usc, USC team and culture much better than I do. But that feels like an organization where they need this to be a competitive game in a different way than Notre Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing for something right now that feels much, much bigger to me than what USC is playing for. I'm waffling here. You take the hook, but it's not a game I want any piece of.
- [70:31]
John Middlekauff
All right, that's fair. Yeah. It's funny about this transfer portal. Colorado, LSU and USC have used it a lot, and all three of them, the seasons always end disappointing. Why? Because in my opinion, this is one of my theories, that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes. It's very hard to build a culture with all the interlopers and newcomers. And so what happens over the course of a season at usc, LSU and Colorado when you face adversity is when you need a great culture and they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures. They don't have guys that have been together for four years since high school. And so lsu, Colorado, usc, heavy transfer portal. Whereas in Notre Dame, very little transfer portal, great culture. With Marcus Freeman, they had an early loss that was awful. They've gotten stronger because their culture's better. So you look at these teams that had early setbacks and setbacks can splinter locker rooms. And these heavy transfer portal teams, they all get bad. At the end of the season, a lot of people start going their own way. The NIL guys are looking at the pros. So Ole Miss, by the way, everybody loves Ole Miss.
- [71:49]
Doug Gottlieb
Yeah.
- [71:49]
John Middlekauff
What happens against an inferior Florida team? They don't play well. Guys now are going to start heading in their own directions. So that's what I think I found from the transfer portal. I can think two things. I like it, but I wouldn't want to build around it. It's important, but I don't want it to be my primary infrastructure.
- [72:08]
Doug Gottlieb
I'm going to give you an example that supports both sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana.
- [72:18]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [72:19]
Doug Gottlieb
I love them. I've been so excited for this team all year. Obviously, heavy portal. They used the transfer portal heavily, but what they did was they basically took the entire team from James Madison and plugged them in. So, yeah, it worked for them, but the reason it worked for them is because they maintained a culture that existed with Kurt Signetti from where he was before and then brought it to Bloomington. And that's translated in a very successful way. And what's more interesting to me also about this is I think there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana, who have been middling teams, to get the fourth, fifth year seniors who want to keep playing college football. They might not be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive workman like college football players.
- [73:16]
John Middlekauff
Yeah.
- [73:17]
Doug Gottlieb
And they're adults. So instead of the sophomore five star who's not getting any playing time and is transferring from Texas to Ole Miss, they're getting the fourth year Mac quarterback who like was really good and his time to see if he can stretch his game to the next level. And he's an adult. And that's just a different kind of player in college football. I'm not saying now Indiana has a ceiling on this. We saw it against Ohio State. You got to get athletes and people on the edge and all that kind of stuff. But I think you can build a really successful program through the portal if you're getting guys who are just great college football players and not necessarily the highest ceiling athletes.
- [74:00]
John Middlekauff
The Volume.
- [74:04]
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