← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - NFL Wild Card Round Preview, Top NFL Head Coaches, Lamar Jackson’s Decline
00:54:50
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast, guaranteed human the volume today's show brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, the official sportsbook partner of the AFC south champion Jacksonville Jaguars. Duvall is going to be jacked up this weekend, folks. We've been rolling with Hard Rock Bet all season long and now Hard Rock Bet is here for what is shaping up to be an incredible playoff run. So you know I love doing these big standalone playoff games. Same game parlays lock in one matchup at a time. Stack your picks. Maybe the quarterback throws for 250 yards, the running back hits 100. The tight end punches in the first touchdown. Hard Rock Bet gives you tons of ways to build your same game parlay, turning big game days into bigger paydays. And if you miss kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in game betting. You're never too late to the action. Find a winner or grab that player prop you meant to play and live bet between snaps. Couple easy taps on the phone. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 benefit hits you not only get your winnings but an extra 150 in bonus bets. So just because your team may be out of it, that doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines this postseason between same game parlays. Live Betting can't miss welcome offer and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in alder states must be 21 doll and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concern about gambling in Florida call 1888 admit it in Indiana. If you or somebody you know has a problem wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler Arizona, Colorado Illinois New Jersey Ohio Tennessee Virginia. Odds via hard rock bet Chargers at the Patriots Chargers plus 3 so New England the favorite. I would probably lean take the points with the Chargers. Now this is interesting. Bills minus one according to Hard Rock Bet at the Jaguars. I like the Jaguars and I think they could pound them. Now I will say Buffalo's been a weird team that week to week. You know you get really good halves, really bad halfs. I Think Jacksonville is completely legit. I think they're the third or fourth best team in the league. For them to be at home as an underdog to me feels incredibly disrespectful. I get the offensive coach, Trevor Lawrence isn't turning it over. I think I would take Jacksonville by a touchdown. What say you?
- [02:46]
B
I get they were playing the Titans today, but man, they look good. And I just counted.
- [02:50]
A
They won eight.
- [02:51]
B
They've won eight straight games and Trevor looks fantastic. There is no disputing. I mean, you could make the argument they're playing as well as any team in the league.
- [03:00]
C
Right.
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B
Right now in terms of, in terms of like momentum, in terms of both sides of the ball, the coaching staff, how well the quarterback looks historically though, you know, I mean, this, that's where the Bills are a unique team. Going to the. They do have a guy that if he's on, can just take over a game. But just based on the way they're playing, it'd be hard to go against the Jack. I mean there's, there's just. The Jags can win the super bowl because the AFC is pretty wide open. The Texans are probably one of the scarier teams. They're comfortable playing them, right. They're in the division, so they've seen that personnel. It's not like Denver or New England are unbeatable squads. So I would say Jacksonville, I haven't seen the odds of them to win the afc, but if they get by the Bills, to me, they are very, very live to win the AFC hurdle because there's going to be some weird pressure on the Jags. They're at home. They're taking on this guy who's most considered when he's on the best player in the NFL. If they, if they are able to slay that dragon, I could see the Jags win the AFC for sure.
- [04:03]
A
Remember, Buffalo is a very weird first half team. They play from behind. Now today they didn't against the hapless Jets. But you get down, like I would take the Jags in the first half, you get down to Jacksonville and you know, good luck, they have a pass rush. So again, Buffalo has trailed, I think in six of their last eight games. In the second half, they're not a fast starting team. John, when you go on the road, regular season or playoffs or college football, when you go on the road, you have to start quickly. Like Seattle at San Francisco took command of the game. First drive you're like, okay, okay. The crowd's not a factor. Buffalo go on the road get down. 14, 3, 14. Nothing like that thing could go sideways fast. Jacksonville's a much better starting team with an offensive coach and scripted plays. You know, this is nothing against McDermott but a team as good as Buffalo shouldn't trail 6 of 8 games in the second half in a watered down AFC. I think Jacksonville's a rough matchup for them now. There's no odds yet the Texans will go either to Baltimore or Pittsburgh and I think they will control both. My guess is the Texans would go on the road and be like a two and a half point favorite at Baltimore, at Pittsburgh. I really like the Texans. I think you and I both feel this. You know, you just forget they keep making the playoffs and C.J. strouds won't playoff games like D' Ameco Ryan, just like Mike McDonald. You know, you talk guys around the league like Mike McDonald and D' Ameco Ryan's defensive coaches. Jesse Minto is a defensive coordinator. They're just different. And I, I gotta tell you, the one team I would not want to play is the Texans. You know they're going to be the underdog. Nobody's pulling form outside of Houston. I don't care if they play the Ravens and the Steelers. I like the Ravens tonight close. Where are you on that?
- [06:03]
B
I think they match up. I think the Steelers would have no shot against them. You know, Rogers running away, not possible that their passing games atrocious. I guess. DK's back. They can't really run the ball. The one way to neutralize a good pass rush would be to run the ball. Derek Henry's come alive of late. You know, depending on Lamar, you know, whether he, if he ends up playing tonight, how he looks, if he's healthy for that game just poses a problem to me. The Ravens are a tougher matchup than the Steelers, but I 100% can beat either. And if they win that game, they are like the Jags. I mean you could argue two teams that are going to surprise nobody if they're sitting in there in the AFC with a chance to win the conference is the Jags and the Texans. Their physicality, the coaching staff, their mentality. I mean I, I, I've loved Houston, I listen, I thought Houston was a lock to win the division coming into the season. Obviously the Jags have had an incredible season. When your defense is that good, you can beat anybody, you know. And look and look at this. Drake May, second year player. Bo Nick, second year player. It's like they're going to be intimidated playing those Two guys, right? Drake's a better player than Bo Nicks, but look who he's throwing to. I mean, they have elite DB play in Houston. So to me, what they do translates to all the opponents they're going to see. You know, they've, they've beaten the Jags with their backup quarterback. Remember, they were down like 29, 10 and came storming back in that game. So I, I, I, I think of all the wild cards that we're going to talk about, maybe the Rams once we get to the nfc, the Texans would have the best chance to be representing their conference of the wild card teams in the Super Bowl.
- [07:38]
A
Totally agree. You know, Denver, we've seen this in college football where a buy doesn't necessarily work in football. Like if you're like Seattle, young, athletic, they need to play. They're going to get a buy. Denver is going to get a buy. I think those two teams, I think they'd want to play. I think if I'm Seattle after that, yeah, I want to get back out there and play. Denver's in a weird spot. I mean, here's where Denver gets a big break. Houston, warm weather team, Jags, warm weather team. You know, the, the New England would be fine, but you know, you could see Jacksonville that already beat Denver, right. Going back to denver and it's 8 degrees. You could absolutely see that. So it's like in a weird way sometimes losing, you know, that game to Jacksonville now. Okay, I get to see what they do now. Let's play them again when it's really cold, really windy. So that Denver does have a, not just an altitude, but a little bit of a wind advantage against, you know, a cold weather advantage against potentially the Chargers, the Jags and the Texans. I, I think that'll be understated, but it's something, it's a couple of points to me.
- [08:45]
B
They, they, they like Seattle. There are only so many teams in the NFL that have collegiate like atmospheres that it is a massive home field advantage and Denver clearly is one. The altitude and the crowd is just elite. I mean, you watch that Elway documentary. I mean, it's just that place when it's rocking Peyton Manning and those, it's a, they, they've beaten Brady there countless times over, over the decades with Shanahan to when Elway was the gm. So when you look at the afc, that to me is a point of difference for Denver. Like Jacksonville. You know, let's say Jacksonville and Buffalo end up playing Saturday night. It'll look pretty good in the dark. But I would say Jacksonville, some home field advantage. Houston does not have one. The Chargers don't have one. Denver in the Pats, obviously, throughout the years. I mean, that is a point of, you know, that's a huge, it's been a massive advantage for Andy and the Chiefs over the last five or six years. Playing all those games at Arrowhead Collegiate, like, atmosphere, cold. These teams, I mean, there's no way to prepare when you're playing in seven degrees because you can be like, okay, we'll practice outside. Well, you won't get anything done. So that's where coaches, like, they'll go outside for a minute and then they'll go in the bubble because they, they want to, you know, get the game plan installed, be able to communicate. No one can listen because you can't focus. So to me, Denver, the home field advantage is on their side. But when you watch them play, something's off. They, they don't, they don't really look right. And Bo Nix, that one game he played against Green Bay was incredible. But even today, and I get it, the Chargers have a good defensive mentality. You just like what's going on here. You like a little more juice.
- [10:15]
A
Yeah.
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B
That's the one thing the Patriots, the Patriots have, they get easier opponents, but they roll them. They get so much momentum. So the confidence that quarterback has compared. Is Bo Nix confident or does he just keep telling me he's confident? Because I watch him play. He doesn't always play confident. Where Drake May plays pretty swaggy, as the kids would say.
- [10:34]
A
Nfc, Seattle gets the buy again. I don't think Seattle would want the buy. Young, dominating performance against San Francisco. We'll get to that in a bit. So let's look at the nfc, all these odds via the Hard Rock bet. Okay, we'll start with this. The Rams would be a five seed. They're going to Carolina. Carolina is going to be hosting a playoff game, which is absurd. It's the second time they faced the Rams in a month. They beat him before and they beat him down the field. You can beat the Rams over the top. It's an average corner situation for them. Rams are a 10 and a half point favorite. This is one of these where like today I took the rams as a 7 1/2 point favorite against Arizona. I'm like, it's just too many possessions. Arizona's quit. I think the Rams win this game. I, I would stay away. I, I don't like giving up ten and a half to a home playoff team. But I, I watched The Panthers yesterday, like you, you know, it's. It's one of those things where Bryce Young, you're either a franchise quarterback, a backup, or you could argue you're a bridge quarterback. I'd argue that Bryce Young feels like a bridge quarterback. He's a little small. I couldn't build around him, but you could play him as a starter for a year. He just won the division. I mean, he backed into it. But my take is the Rams should be favored. There's such an odd team for. Considering they have McVeigh weapons and Stafford. They start slow a lot. They put Arizona away in the second half. Any strong feeling there?
- [12:00]
B
I was the second half. They were up 23, 20 going into the fourth quarter. I mean, I thought Rams looked terrible. McVay had this look on his face that look like, if we lose this game and lose the opportunity to play the NFC south winner, I might just go to Amazon. You could see it on it like, this is because they look kind of lifeless. Jacoby Brissette hit this bomb down the sideline, and it got called back. And that's kind of where the game stopped the momentum for Arizona, because it felt like Arizona could score on him every single time. You're like, I thought part of the Rams deal was their defense. And I started thinking, whatever happened that night in Seattle, when Seattle came storming back, they lost their mojo. I mean, they. I know they came back last Monday. They were down 21 nothing at half on the road to Atlanta. I mean, I watched Atlanta today. They're not, you know, I know they got some good players, but give me a break. Especially when you're trying to play for seating like they were last week, that. That was an important game. Sean McVeigh took that, and they were down 21 nothing. My. My opinion has changed dramatically on the Rams. I. I am not as against Carolina, for sure. I mean, we need to enact something. If you go under.500, you should not be able to host a playoff game. That's absurd. You could make the argument that you shouldn't even be eligible for the playoffs. If other teams, Minnesota, the Lions, some of these other teams have better records than you.
- [13:17]
A
Yeah, I think there's an argument to be made that if you're under.500, you can make the playoffs. You can't host a playoff game, I'd.
- [13:25]
C
Be fine with that.
- [13:25]
A
I. Yeah, so would I. You know, the Rams, I've watched every snap, really, all year long, and you see it with golf, you see it with Kirk Cousins, and you see it With Stafford, when you do not have a mobile quarterback as good as Stafford is, John, you can't roll the pocket. You don't get those sort of off script third and seven runs for first downs. There's about six to seven times a game that a San Francisco or a Seattle can roll the pocket. Purdy did it a couple times yesterday. Sam did it once yesterday. You get those four or five first downs a game because your quarterback is mobile or you can, or he can escape. When you have golf, when you have Stafford, when you have cousins, if the play that's designed doesn't work, it can get sideways. It can be an ugly loss. And I feel like sometimes the Rams get into these cycles where, where they've run through their scripted stuff. They're, they're, you know, now it's McVeigh on the play sheet looking for some new wiggles and they, they stall out. They have these quarters where they stall out, where again if I, if I'm Shanahan, I can just start going to boot stuff. I, Darnold does a lot of that. You start doing boot stuff. You can do a little bit of that with Stafford. But I do feel like watching the Rams, they're susceptible on the back end. I mean they got a big break on that deep ball down the field that was caught by Wilson and there was a penalty and it was a legitimate penalty against the narrative offensive lineman.
- [15:00]
B
But Wilson was killing them today. I mean Wilson was left and right.
- [15:05]
A
And I feel a little bit like the Rams, this is why they need to, you know, at some point get a mobile quarterback because their backups are Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. Those guys don't move either. I just feel like this offense for all the talent stalls out.
- [15:18]
B
Well, I think one thing that derailed the offense because it had kind of become in its peak earlier in the season. You know, like when you think back Denver with Peyton Manning, they had so many weapons. I mean when you have Devonte and Puka Nuku, no one has better than that. I think Devonte led the league for receivers in touchdowns when he got injured. I don't know, I haven't looked at it today, but up until leading up to this week, that's how dominant he was in the red zone. So you factor him in with Puka who feels like he averages double digit catches a game and then all their other just auxiliary weapons are kind of an unstoppable offense. Well, you remove him, it puts so much pressure on Puka. Nakua, their other weapons are fine. But they get elevated into kind of taking over for Devonte and it becomes a little more difficult now like you said over the course of the game, Arizona just fell off. I mean they have a million injuries. They're rolling on Michael Will. Trey McBride's a good player, but they got a lot of random guys out there. I do think the health of Devonte, if you tell me he's fully healthy, they get by the Panthers then they are, I mean obviously a very, very potent team coming into the playoffs. But if you remove him, they are liable to lose to anybody. Not name the Panthers. And the one thing about Carolina, unlike a lot of the southern teams like obviously Tampa can rain. Carolina and Tennessee are two areas in the south that can get cold. I mean it could just be a weird cold weather game. Well, that could just make it weird. Now I'd be stunned if they won, but I could see if the weather's weird. You just never know. It's a long flight light.
- [16:44]
A
Also TMac and Leggette are big long targets. The Rams corners are small. They've been, they've been beaten down the field by large targets. So Carolina's got the kind of receiver A.J. brown is a, is a nightmare matchup for the Rams. And Carolina's got two long athletic receivers. So you could see them backdoor covering it, scoring at some point. I just, I kind of feel when I watch Carolina, they just, they Dan Morgan, the gm they need six more draft picks and one more free agents free agent month. They just don't have enough good players. Okay, the 49ers, a six seed, go to Philadelphia. Philadelphia a three seed and the Eagles are a touchdown favorite. All right, so if Ricky Pearsall and Trent Williams play, both missed the Seattle game. I think the Niners are a live dog. But I will say Philadelphia can create pressure. And I said this going into the Seattle game. I took the Seahawks this weekend. Is that if you speed Brock Purdy up, it's not a great O line. It's a solid O line. If you speed Brock Purdy up, you have a chance to make a few more mistakes. He wasn't very comfortable against Seattle. I do think he's cut down on the mistakes. I think he's had a hell of a year when he's healthy. I would take Philadelphia to win. I'm not sure if I take him to cover, but I do feel like if you go look at the Niners, I looked it up today. Since week six, John, they've lost to the Texans Rams in Seattle. If you have an elite defense, you have such a defensive advantage over them because they don't create any pressure. Sam Darnold was very comfortable and Salah has to take big risks with blitz packages to create any kind of rush. And the Texans Rams in Seattle beat him without having to do that. And Philadelphia will get somewhat of a pass rush without having to bring extra bodies and compromise the secondary. So if you look at what the Niners have done since week six, their wins, they're not beating teams with the elite level defenses because they can't offer that. They just, they just like when you watch that Seattle game, it was 13 to 3, but it didn't feel like that. It felt like 27 to 3. It didn't feel that competitive.
- [19:08]
B
Yeah, they got, they got murdered. The Niners proved they're like an NBA team that wants to play in the 120s or 130s. They want to get into a high flying game where they can score a bunch of points and just get to a position close to the end of the game and hopefully they're coaching. And they did it against Colts and they did against the Bears. I mean, they scored, they won a game 48 or 42 to 38. I mean that's, that's how they wanted to play. And the question was, could they get in, win a game if it was like 17 to 15? Because that's what that game last night was going to be. And their defense is really, really bad. And they lost their two linebackers last night. So I have no clue. Now the Eagles are the most talented team that can look the most incompetent for stretches probably in my lifetime. I mean, they have so much elite talent on their team, it's crazy. And they got a quarterback who can run. So to me, if they just have a competent game plan, there's no way the Niners can stop them. And their defense with Fangio is more than competent enough to just slow them down. The other thing, the Niner, what Seattle did last night is run a classic Kyle Shanahan in their peak team's game plan. We're going to shove the ball down your throat, running the ball and we're going to hit you so hard on every play, we'll just wear you down. The scores. In their heyday, the scores weren't always blowouts, but we're going to smother you. My Donald basically played a Shanahan game.
- [20:32]
A
How many Niners last night? I don't remember. I remember one Seahawk being slow to get up there. Had to have been six different 49ers that literally got either went to the tent or stayed on the ground. I mean, Seattle beat San Francisco up for three and a half hours, and Pierce all. And Trent didn't play. Kittle did. He's still remarkable. I just feel like the Niners, the gig is up east. They're out of bodies. There's just nothing they can do. I think Philadelphia arrested a lot of their guys. Philadelphia, I mean, just. I don't know. I just don't think San Francisco's got the ammo.
- [21:13]
B
I will say this, and I know the way the Eagles in that building internalized stuff they do have. They think, obviously most people do really highly of Kyle. That is not just an easy coaching staff. We talk about Jim Harbaugh getting. You just get Kyle Shanahan and Robert Sala in the first round. Now there's only so much Robert Sala can do. But Kyle just got embarrassed. You know, probably in front of 30, 35 million people, they are going to have some stuff that they're going to bring to Philadelphia. And here's the other thing. If you can just make it a little weird, right, maybe 10, seven, you're up at halftime, that place will start booing you because they already don't really like this team. Like, they don't, because they're not an entertaining team to watch. So if you can get them tight, that place can get tight. Because this Eagle season has been weird. If I. If I would have told you at the start of the day the Bears were going to lose, you would have said, oh, the Eagles are playing Washington even with their backups. The Eagles will be the two seed. And I look, the Eagles lose. How's that? How do you lose? What the Bears losing. If I would have been Sirianni and I look up and they're down 16 to nothing. I'm on the headsets. Hey, we got a dial. We had a chance to be the 2 seed. That's multiple home games. That is a massive, massive advantage. They know it. I mean, they've been the one seed multiple times. Like, they understand the power of playing home games in the playoffs. Now they might have to go on the road.
- [22:35]
A
I. When I do my herd hierarchy, when I do my herd hierarchy on Tuesday, I never know what to do with Philadelphia.
- [22:42]
B
I don't trust them at all.
- [22:43]
A
I don't know what to. I don't know what to do with them. I love their talent. I don't know what to do with them. So I just.
- [22:49]
B
I think all the pressure there is on Philly and Sirianni and we just know that and that we don't. I don't know the game times yet, but I'd be. I mean that's got like Sunday Night Football written all over it, right?
- [23:01]
A
If you told me Pearsall and Trent Williams and Kittle play, that's a good live dog. They'll score, they'll, they'll, they'll score. But God, and you know that of all the games we've talked about. So let's transition to this. Green Bay 7 seed Bears, 2 seed. Yet the Bears have a two game losing streak going into the playoffs. It is according to Hard Rock bet, it is a pick them, it is a pick em. Now here's the advantage for the Bears with Micah Parsons out. They don't generate much of a pass rush, right? They gotta, they gotta scheme it up like solid. They gotta take some chances, compromise the back end of their defense. I think I like the Bears in this spot. You know, it's. Watching them today, I almost felt like they were overconfident, like they knew they were in the playoffs. Then all of a sudden in the fourth quarter you're like, okay, touchdown, two point conversion. Touchdown, two point conversion. For the record. Colston Loveland and Caleb Williams. It is a thing now. Like Colston had a day today. Luther Burden and Colston. Luther Burden and Caleb. That's better now. So I like Chicago in this spot again. It's a little bit of ammo. Green Bay kind of limps into it. Would you, would you, would you roll the dice and take the Bears here?
- [24:22]
B
I would say both the Eagles and the Bears if you would have told them, hey, you get home, playoff game, first round, you're the 2 and 3 seed, you know, six months ago. But you have to play the Green Bay packers and the San Francisco 49ers. They both would be like, are you kidding me? I think part of it is watching the Bears game today. I give them a little bit of a pass, they have this devastating loss right to the 49ers on Sunday night Football. You're in the playoffs, you're guaranteed a two or three, you're guaranteed a home game, young team. But their defense, call it is not very good. It might be a little bit better than the 49ers. There are a lot of parallels. The 49ers and the Bears are kind of carbon copies of each other.
- [25:01]
A
They gave up 440 yards to Detroit today in bad weather.
- [25:05]
B
There were guys wide open. Whatever Jared Goff was, Saint Brown coming across the middle. Jameson Williams coming across the middle. Their DB play, they give up a lot of yards. We just saw the Niners score a bunch of points on them. Now, can Green Bay take advantage of it? It feels like every time I look up, Green Bay's playing a meaningless game. They got guys on the ground, so they have a ton of injuries. Their defense is really banged up. Their offense, you know, it's. Is Malik Willis a better option right now than Jordan Love?
- [25:30]
A
I don't.
- [25:31]
B
I don't know. But I mean, they got a lot of question marks in that organization. You got a coach playing, you know, coaching for a contract extension. But that is a weird. There is not a Bears fan. You live around a lot of them now that are comfortable with that matchup. You've had this magical season. You're the freaking two seed and you get the Green Bay packers, even if they come limping in and everyone's going to be picking you. That's the thing. Everyone's going to be picking the Bears. I could just see that thing could get weird as well. I'd say the packers technically not a dog, but live dog in that situation for being a team that no one's going to pick.
- [26:03]
A
You know, with Chicago, they have a playmaker at safety. They gave up 11 catches, almost 150 yards. Dahmer on st. Brown, he was wide dominating. Yeah. And if you look at the NFC, Devonte Adams will be back. A.J. brown will be back. San Francisco with Pierce all and Jennings. Those guys. Those guys are playmakers. So Chicago is the kind of team that they're. You know, they remind me a little of the Rams where I don't trust the back end of their defense. They can really unimpress you. And then you look up and the Bears and the Rams can put two or three drives together in a row in the second half. And you're like, okay, all right. This is explosive. I mean, Caleb still makes throws. I mean, he made a couple today on those two scoring drives. Like he is. He is. So he's got a physical confidence. Like when he rolls back to throw and he's. And he's rolling to his right. He's toying with the defensive players. He's just kind of playing with them. He's going back and forth. He's totally. If Stafford rolls right, he's not controlling it. He's waiting for somebody to quickly get open. When Caleb rolls right, he. He could do a high school pivot and say, I'm going to run backwards. I'm just going to buy Like Josh Allen does that occasionally. Like guys, I'm controlling the situation. I think I like Chicago in this spot. I really do like how Colston Loveland and Caleb have really created something special. Like today it was incredible. Every big play it was Colston Loveland. They really used their tight ends. Cold commit at a two point conversion too.
- [27:35]
B
That place is going to be pretty special on that in that game. I mean that's, that's. We talk about home field advantage. They haven't once, they haven't made the playoffs in a while. Definitely haven't made the playoffs as a team people think can win a couple of games. It's it that, that atmosphere a couple weeks ago when they play Green Bay had to be one of the more special games of the year. Just in terms of watching it on tv. As a viewer, I think there's a chance that place is absolutely, I mean it's going to be rocking. It's, it's going to be really, really cool. And can they feed into that and maybe that helps the defense out a little bit. They, they just, they have probably less injuries than Niners. Their talent on defense is just not great. You know, the front seven's not that good. They don't have a great pass rusher. They basically just got to score a bunch of points.
- [28:28]
A
Well, he worked in Chicago radio for a long time. Now he's on FS1. Career ascension. Been fun to see. His name is Danny Parkins. So Saturday, a friend of mine in California, he said, hey, I take my son to a game every year and we know you live in Chicago. Do you want to go to the Bears game? I said it's going to be 30 mile an hour, wind gusts and snowing. He's like, it'll be so much fun. And I said, when you live in it, it's really not that fun. Like I don't ski anymore, so. But it is interesting when I look at that Packer game. What I think is fascinating is usually when the packers play in a playoff game, they are the story and it's a total Bear story. Ben Johnson, Caleb. The Bears are literally what everybody is watching for. And my theory is the lousy weather benefits the Bears because they have one of the best run games. The packers run game isn't as good. The Bears have a better run game, a better O line and I would argue the ability for Caleb to just take off is actually usually the more skilled offense is at a disadvantage when the weather stinks. And I actually think it plays into the Bears favor and I like Chicago this weekend, and I think they're the second best bet on the board after Jacksonville.
- [29:51]
C
So, yeah, a lot there. Caleb's best game of the season and arguably his career was against Cleveland. And their defense was very good this year, and it was the coldest game at Soldier field in, like, 20 years. His arm is ridiculous.
- [30:06]
A
Ridiculous.
- [30:07]
C
So, like, now Jordan Love's got a very. He's got a plus arm. So. But, like, bad conditions should impact Caleb less than other players because of his, like, physical gifts. And then everything else you said is absolutely true. Home field, offensive line, run game, all those things. Green Bay's defense also, you know, they've lost four straight. Micah got hurt four games ago. They have three sacks and no interceptions in their last four games down the stretch. That's the Jets. The jets have four sacks and no interceptions. They're the only other team in that spot. They're giving up 28 a game. Like the Pack, the Bears defense is not good, but they lead the league in takeaways. Like, they do make plays. The packers defense, since losing Micah is just bad. They don't sack the quarterback. They don't turn you over. They give up a lot of points. So they're just bad and not even opportunistic. But before we get into any more hardcore X's and O's football, I'm going, oh, my God, Colin, you didn't even text me back. I texted you and said, hey, I'm flying in Saturday morning. Do you want to grab lunch? And now I'm going with my. With my buddies, and we're going to get lunch. So unless you want to come hang out with some of us as we start boozing, you're more than welcome. But, Colin, I hate going to NFL games. Hate it. It's expensive, People fight. The traffic is miserable. I think it's crazy that this game ended up on Saturday instead of on Sunday. And there's been great reporting as to how the TV networks divvied up these games and why prime got the excellent game that is Bears Packers. But when I saw that it was Saturday night in Chicago and I could fly in Saturday morning, fly back to New York Sunday morning, be back in time to watch all the Sunday games and go. And not miss anything by going to this Bears packers game. This is going to be a special thing. Like, it's going to be uncomfortable. It's going to be cold. But I have. I have incredible seats. I am right behind the Bears bench. Like, so I'm out in the elements. But, like, first row behind the Bears bench. I have not been this excited to go to an NFL game since I was like a child. Like, I am very, very excited to be there. It's because, because your friend is correct. Like, it's going to be a. It's going to be a experience. It's going to be miserably cold and windy. I'm actually rooting for it to be cold because I don't want it to be if it's going to. I don't want it to be rain. Like, I'd much rather it be snowing than rain. Yeah. Just for like comfort in the stadium. So if it's like 33 and raining, that's going to be miserable. Give me 23 in snow, 30 rain. But I don't know. There's good. Bears, Packers, Soldier Field bears as the 2 seed. Feeling like we are not out coached and we are not out quarterbacked. I remember watching football for the first time in 1992, being six years old. My old, my dad and my older brother raised in Wisconsin. Die hard packers fans. 92 is Brett Favre's first year in green Bay. I've never seen the Bears have a better quarterback than the packers my whole life. So the idea that like this game could be like the beginning of the rivalry being real and that's the floor or the ceiling is like passing of a torch to like an era of the Bears being the hammer and the packers being the male. I'm just, I'm so excited for this game. I had to be there.
- [33:35]
A
Well, you know, one of the things about running a northern tier team, and I've said this for years, Danny, there's never been a dome dynasty in the NFL. There's never been a warm weather dynasty. I mean, Dan, that's interesting. Yeah. Dan Marino.
- [33:52]
C
What about the Cowboys go there in the winter?
- [33:56]
A
It's not that warm. It's, it's, it's. You know, they've got. I went to a Super bowl, there were ice, sheets of ice were falling off the stadium.
- [34:02]
C
That was that. Yes, sure. Yes.
- [34:04]
A
Okay.
- [34:05]
C
Okay.
- [34:05]
A
So I don't consider. I consider warm. You know, Miami, Arizona an LA team, Jacksonville. There's never been a warm weather dynasty. And so the NFL success has gone through cold, crappy weather. And I was thinking about this the other day. Ben Johnson's a real sharp guy. Ben Johnson, I think knew. Listen, it's not named the Windy City because of the wind. That's because of politicians years ago. Nonetheless. And Baltimore's always done this and New England did this don't worry too much about deep threats. They went and got a center, two guards, and a tight end and a slot receiver. And why those guys can operate under 16 yards. Now, Caleb has a power arm, but even if you have a power arm Saturday, it may not matter. And I think what one of the quiet pieces of Ben Johnson, unstated pieces of Ben Johnson's brilliance. He built this team to play in crappy weather. This is an excellent crappy weather team. For the record, so is Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley, good tight ends, excellent O line. So Seattle, by the way, Darnold, big arm. They went and drafted a tight end, two running backs. Really only one receiver. So I think what makes you, you, you, you know, we always think of Green Bay. I mean, Green Bay always Favre, big Army. Aaron, big arm. Love big arm. Flacco, big arm. Lamar, not so much. Mahomes, big arm. I think Chicago is, if, if the, the weather is lousy for the next three weeks, I think the Bears are completely built for it. For the record, Detroit wasn't where Ben was at because golf's not good in that weather. But they were, they were indoors. So I always feel like when golf goes outside, the odds change. So I, I, I know a lot of people go back and forth, but I, in the last 12 hours, I'm like, big Jacksonville, big Chicago, and I do like Mike Tomlin Monday, now that DK Metcalf comes back. So those are the three I feel strongest about. Do you have two to three that you really feel most strongly about?
- [36:20]
C
Well, so one that you didn't mention is my favorite, and it's Chargers plus three and a half.
- [36:25]
B
Wow.
- [36:25]
C
I think. Yeah.
- [36:27]
A
So you and J. Mac love that.
- [36:30]
C
So I don't know if I love that.
- [36:35]
B
No.
- [36:36]
C
Like, obviously three in the hook is, is a big deal. Like it's obviously a very important number in the gambling space. So that's, that is a piece of it. I think Jacksonville wanted New England because they know, okay, two of our most expensive players and two of our best players, Alton Slater, are out for the year. You take two of the four highest paid players off any team, it's going to decimate.
- [37:02]
A
Yes.
- [37:03]
C
Now you say they play the same position and their job is to protect your most expensive and important player. And it's a death blow. Like anyone who has been hit, the number of times that Herbert has been hit, who has made the playoffs in the last 30 years, they've all lost in the wild card round. Like it's, it's, it is supposed to Be a fatal flaw of a team if you can't stop your quarterback from getting hit. Well, New England's defense is not good. They're not. They're statistically okay in some areas, but they haven't played anybody. And when you dig into it just a little bit, like good quarterbacks have been efficient against them and have at least moved the ball. And their pass rush numbers are not good. Now, a lot of that is, you know, they don't even really need to. They're not playing from behind. They're not gearing up and going after it. There's some prevent stuff. There have been a lot of blowouts, sure. I'll concede that. But I think Denver is a worse matchup for the Chargers. I think Houston is a worse matchup for the Chargers.
- [38:07]
A
Houston's a bad matchup. Yeah.
- [38:09]
C
No, no doubt. Denver's pass rush almost beat the 84 Bears record.
- [38:14]
B
Right?
- [38:14]
C
I mean, they, they, they, they. The Chargers beat him in a 2320 game where Herbert was incredible and abused and sacked and like he was. They were lucky to win that game. But I just think that they looked at it and they said, we'll rest our guys in week 18 and we'll play a team that really hasn't played much of anybody this year, and we'll run on them and we'll protect just. And Justin Herbert won't be staring at the ceiling the whole game because their pass rush isn't great. So I just, I think New England having the easiest schedule of any team since the 99 Rams is something. And I think their pass rush not being very good is something. And I think Herbert, like you do, is a superstar. So I really like them to. I think they're going to win the game, but I'll certainly take them plus three and a half.
- [39:05]
A
So I want to talk about the Lamar Jackson thing. So listen, 18 years is a long time to be a CEO of a company like that's just a long time. And the hardballs are. They're intense, like, intense personalities. You know, Jim and John, I, I could see six, eight years in. In San Francisco. You know, Jim was wearing people out at Stanford. He did. Now I think this gym is much more chill. Maybe the Harbaughs need to get to 60, and John Harbaugh's never been quite as intense. But I, I just, I think John will go win somewhere and Lamar will win. But it is interesting with Lamar because I was saying this today. They sat down with a meeting, and I don't think the intent was to Run John Harbaugh out. But if you're John Harbaugh, you're like, okay, Listen, I was 8 and 4 in the playoffs pre Lamar. I'm 3 and 6 with him. He's missed a full season of games. I don't know what he actually is right now because it's not what it used to be. And Cam Newton's last Pro bowl was at 26. Like, but Lamar is so wildly worshiped and loved in Baltimore. He's unmovable. And by the way, Mahomes is, Allen is. Lamar is. You could move almost every quarterback. And I'm serious, there's about. I mean, now Herbert in LA would be tough, but the truth is, LA is so chill, you know? But I mean, like, Lamar is on a short list of. You just can't move them. But my point is, what do you think next year? Because remember, hyper, athletic quarterbacks age faster. That's not disputable. Old guys, Aaron, Stafford, Brady, don't. You can play into your four. I thought Aaron's second half last week was the best he's played in three years. I thought he was outstanding. What do you think Lamar is going forward? Because I think deep down he would never say it publicly, but Lamar didn't throw out an olive branch when he got fired. And that story got leaked to the writer in Baltimore and it didn't come from Lamar's side. And my take is the untold story is Harbaugh asked some questions about Lamar, like, what are we going forward? He's got a $74 million cap. My ask to you is next year and beyond. Do you believe Lamar is what we saw this year? A slower, more tackleable, more defendable version of what he was three years ago?
- [41:36]
C
Well, I mean, listen, he arguably should have won MVP last year. You know, like, it was a very close MVP race with him and Josh Allen last year. So we're not that far removed from Lamar. You know, he was, what, 41 touchdowns and four picks or something stupid.
- [41:50]
A
But again, athletic quarterbacks age fast.
- [41:53]
C
No, no, I. Absolutely, absolutely.
- [41:54]
A
Ben just fell off a cliff.
- [41:57]
C
Yeah, like, listen, I. I would not want to be tied to lamar for his 30s. But, like, he turned 29 today. Yeah, I think that it's totally reasonable to say his age. 29, 30, 31, 32 seasons. That you'd be thrilled.
- [42:15]
A
Okay.
- [42:16]
C
Could win a Super bowl in two of those four years. You know, like it. And so because he has gotten better as a passer. Yeah, I think his. What the next coach's biggest challenge is going to Be is figuring out how much of his improvement as a passer was because teams had to defend against him as a runner. And like, like, because like his, his mobility makes you have to put in spies and keep eyes on the quarterback and all that. And so that it makes it easier to pass the football. He doesn't just drop back and pass it like Matt Stafford and he never will. And so as that athleticism wanes, how much is his passing efficiency going to wane? And my guess is a significant amount. Yeah, like I do. I don't think Lamar is going to be, you know, I don't think he's going to win another MVP award, but I do think that he will be good enough in the short term to be competitive because of how talented that roster is. And the other, like, because I think also what you're asking is like, how attractive is the Baltimore job? It's a great organization.
- [43:19]
A
Oh, I think it's. I think it's the best job opening in for. Since, since Green Bay. But Green Bay doesn't have an owner and they've got their own obstacles and things to deal with. I mean, Green Bay, third year in a row, youngest team. Why they don't sign free agents much. So.
- [43:35]
C
Right.
- [43:35]
A
Baltimore's as good a job as that's been open in years.
- [43:38]
C
I agree with you. But like, if you are skeptical of what Lamar is going to be and you're going to have to pay him $70 million.
- [43:45]
A
So. I'm not skeptical. I think you get two more really, really high end years. But my guess is the Lamar that was freakishly hard to corner. I don't think we'll see that. I think we'll see highly effective. 11 and 6 can win the division. But I do think, I think it's a reasonable take that 29 years old for his. Stylistically, I think he's got two really good years left. I wouldn't bet on four. I think at 33 is not the same player. I think.
- [44:20]
C
Yeah, no, I agree with that. And I said like two of the next four because maybe he hurts his back next year or whatever. But I think, I also think that athletes now, they're just better.
- [44:32]
A
Yeah, right.
- [44:33]
C
And so I think we have to kind of like it used to be like running backs after 27, don't want those guys now. Derrick Henry is still a top six back in the NFL. You know, now he's an Adrian Peterson cyborg. But like Christian McCaffrey usage is higher than it's ever been. Like we have to like adjust it A little bit like, because Cam. Cam Newton took hits in a way that Lamar doesn't take hits right now. Big, bigger athlete, but he was 1 yard touchdowns. Ben Roethlisberger lowering his shoulder. That's not what Lamar is like. You can still be just. If you are a good escape artist, even if you're not running to scramble, just like running to evade the pressure, extend the plays, you can still be effective. So, yeah, two of the next four years, I think you have a top 10 quarterback, Lamar Jackson, and you can. You can win a Super bowl with that. And then when you add in all the other talent there, how well they draft. What coach Mangini keeps talking about though, is he's like what people underrate is when you're there for 18 years, it's not like a coach who was there for three and gets fired. He's like, you're. You're either just doing more of what John Harbaugh was doing, or you're changing everything. But the PR was how Harbaugh wanted it.
- [45:48]
B
The.
- [45:49]
C
The. The food was how Harbaugh wanted it, the training staff, all those things. So I'm fascinated into like, the profile of who the next coach of the Ravens is. Like, can it be a first time head coach?
- [46:01]
A
No. I said this today. They don't need their culture change. They have one of the best cultures. They need somebody that works with Lamar as he ages. Stefanski.
- [46:10]
C
Yeah.
- [46:10]
A
The New York Giants need a variable. They need a culture changer. This will probably go viral. So years ago, I forget who was doing this, but somebody ranked the best 30 dunks of all time and they eliminated the Vince Carter jumping over the Chinese national team center. We're going to take that one out because it automatically wins. You jumped over a seven foot man, and so somebody took that out and started it. So I'm going to take Andy Reid out of this question because he's almost Belichickian now. It's sort of understood. It's silly. His resume's better, his play. So let's take Andy Reid out of this and let's go rank the coaches until we get to Ben Johnson. Okay, so I would go.
- [47:08]
C
Not gonna take long.
- [47:09]
A
So. Okay, I'm gonna go McVeigh one.
- [47:12]
C
That's fine. Shanahan too.
- [47:16]
A
Boy, Jim Harbaugh is good. Jim Harbaugh's good.
- [47:19]
C
Jim Harbaugh. Jim. Jim Harbaugh is. Jim Harbaugh is very good. And I know. I know you love him.
- [47:28]
A
Okay, here's why Shanahan gets docked for me.
- [47:31]
C
Okay.
- [47:31]
A
Why doesn't he come. Why is he bad second half trailing? Because he has the best play sheet in the league and he gets glued to his play sheet. He has the best. He is. That is the most sophisticated play sheet in the league and the best play caller. But he. There are certain things. You know, I always had my Aaron Rodgers theory. Why does he have so few come from behind wins in the fourth? Fewer than Derek Carr? Why? Because Aaron's mood changes after a pick or two. He literally. His mood changes. You can see it. His body language changes. He has a bizarre few come from behind wins. I always said he's not a foxhole guy. He is a baller, but a little bit of a baler. Okay.
- [48:18]
C
Yeah, but, but okay. Like, I, but I, I love this, so I want to just like stay on it. Like, the guy went to a Super bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy. I feel like it's like that's the only argument I need. Like Kyle Shanahan, if you can go to a Super bowl with the last pick in the draft.
- [48:38]
A
Okay, so I'm putting him third. You're putting him second.
- [48:41]
C
Yeah.
- [48:42]
A
Okay, but.
- [48:43]
C
Okay, fine. Okay, but my, but my thing. Okay, so now Harbaugh. Harbaugh wins everywhere he goes. Everywhere is a great culture guy.
- [48:52]
A
Yeah.
- [48:57]
C
I don't know, man. I don't know. Like, Ben Johnson calls the plays.
- [49:03]
A
Well, yeah, but can we, can we have him go through a full season before?
- [49:08]
C
I'm just saying, like, Jim Harbaugh runs a little bit too much for my liking. Like, he kicks field goals a little too often for my liking. Okay, I'm just, I'm just saying, like, there's. It's just, it's a little. It. All I'm saying is we've reached the point of the list where I. We reached the point of the list where you're going to at least get me to start making some arguments for my guy.
- [49:33]
A
Okay. That. That's okay. So I'm like, McVeigh Harbaugh. Shanahan's lack of second half comebacks bothers me. Shanahan third, Mike Vrabel four. Sean Payton. I would probably. I think Peyton's so good. And by the way, it's all inches here to me. Like, I, It's. It's inches. It's not feet.
- [49:54]
C
So, like, I have a question about Mike Rabel.
- [49:56]
A
Okay.
- [49:56]
C
I have a question about Mike Rabel. He wins in Tennessee with a political bad ownership with, with, with prime Derrick Henry and A.J. brown. Yeah.
- [50:10]
A
And Ryan Tannehill.
- [50:11]
C
I okay. But it. That they had one great year and it ended poorly. And yes, there was politicking and all of that. He is clearly a smart coach. He is clearly. You know, he plays on the edges like Belichick. Like, he knows the rules backwards and forwards, which I really respect. Josh McDaniels is a top offensive coordinator. Like, how lucky is that? And maybe it's not luck, it's relationship and Patriots and all that stuff. But, like, he has the best offensive coordinator situation you can have. Because it seems like Josh McDaniels can't be a head coach. Right. But he's clearly. Like, if we were going to say best play callers in the game. And again, we're removing Andy Reid. Like, Josh McDaniels is probably in the top five. Right? Like, he. Josh McDaniels is.
- [50:58]
A
I think he's. I think he's probably. He and Brian Flores are the best coordinators in the game right now.
- [51:02]
C
Yeah, well, so just like you gave him an incredible quarterback and an incredible play caller, and that incredible play caller won't leave because he can't be a head coach. I just. I'll just tell you this right now. I wouldn't trade Ben Johnson for Mike Rabel. Okay.
- [51:16]
B
That one.
- [51:16]
C
That one wouldn't be hard.
- [51:17]
A
Okay. So the difference between you and I, I get to seven, and I'm willing to consider Ben Johnson. So I go McVeigh, Jim Harbaugh, Shanahan, Peyton Vrabel and Mike McDonald's. Mike McDonald took over. I think he's. I think he's McVeigh on the defensive side. So I get to seven, and I could argue I like Demo Ryan's, but I do prefer offense over defense. I would go Ben Johnson 7, and then Demico Ryan's 8, and then I'd probably go. I mean, we have to put Mike Tomlin in there because he. Goddamn. One is division again. It's insane.
- [51:55]
C
So I would. I would.
- [51:57]
A
The. Who am I missing now?
- [51:59]
C
Listen, you know, some people would say Matt LaFleur. I.
- [52:05]
B
He's.
- [52:05]
C
He's good. I would.
- [52:06]
A
Good.
- [52:07]
C
I would take. I would take Ben Johnson over him. Listen, I think. I think not. It's. It's very early, but what Liam Cohen is doing in Jacksonville is very, very impressive.
- [52:16]
A
I would like him to finish the season, but I agree.
- [52:19]
B
Yeah.
- [52:19]
C
I'm just saying, if I'm going to have Ben Johnson up there, like, because I'm giving Liam Cohen a lot of credit for what Baker did. You know, so, like that.
- [52:27]
A
Here's what's funny. Sean McDermott has a higher winning percentage than Andy Reid and Belichick. I'm, I'm at nine and I don't have Sean McDermott. That tells you the depth in coaching.
- [52:36]
C
Yeah. And listen, and Nick Sirianni has like the highest win percentage ever. And everyone's like, yeah, but it's a super team. So like, we can, we can parse some stuff here. Sean Payton's great. I would take Ben Johnson because of age. Like, I think you have him for longer. McDonald is incredible. And what, what the Seahawks did in that Week 18 game against the Niners.
- [52:59]
A
Oh, it was one of the more. It's amazing. It was only 13 to 3 because it felt 30 to 3. And that, that is the knock I have on Seattle is that they physically dominate teams. And in the last six weeks, you're like, I feel like you left 14 points on the.
- [53:16]
C
Yeah.
- [53:16]
A
On the floor.
- [53:17]
C
Yeah, that. I mean that. JSN is 40% of their offense. And you fully trust their, like, I mean, they clearly sometimes call plays to hide Darnold making mistakes. They'll like snap, throw like one read throws like, they'll like roll them out left and look back right and there's one and it's like, throw it to him or throw it away. So they, they, they clearly don't fully trust Darnold even though they say everything publicly. Like their actions and their play calling when he gets a little shake. He suggested. But yeah, McDonald doing that. I mean, we looked it up on the show. Fewest yards ever for a Kyle Shanahan offense since he'd been the head coach in San Francisco. Fewest rushing yards for McCaffrey since he got with Shanahan and, and tied for the fewest points for Shanahan since he had been in San Francisco. Since his first game. Shanahan's first game in San Francisco in 2017, they scored three points and then they held him to three points when they had been the number one offense in football since week 11. When Purdy came back, they were averaging 35 a game. They play a must win game against the division opponent they know and they get held to 174 yards and three points. So, yeah, McDonald is excellent. Like, he, to me, the coach of the year this year is fascinating. Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Liam Cohen, McDonald's Shanahan with all the injuries, there's, you know, Peyton obviously getting the 1 seed. There's big names, there's history, guys. McDonald's probably, I think, I think he deserves it this year and that's over by guy Ben Johnson.
- [54:51]
A
The volume I'll say it up front. I don't usually endorse supplements. Most promise shortcuts. Anybody who's done real work knows shortcuts fail. But I like M drives. Every morning I put that protein powder in my coffee. It's practical. As you get older, energy dips and weight comes easier. That's biology. M Drive Boost and burn support steady energy metabolism and fat burning, so effort actually counts. Clinically tested ingredients find that it sprouts. Amazon or mdrive for men.com mdrive for men who still show up this is.
- [55:25]
B
An I Heart podcast.
- [55:27]
A
Guaranteed human.