Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Nick Wright On “Noisy Wide Receivers”, Josh Allen Most Talented QB Ever? College Football Playoff Set, Belichick To UNC

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Title: Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Nick Wright On “Noisy Wide Receivers”, Josh Allen Most Talented QB Ever? College Football Playoff Set, Belichick To UNC
Release Date: December 14, 2024
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

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1. Opening Remarks and Personal Reflections

The episode begins with Colin Cowherd addressing the escalating issue of hate in the country. Drawing from personal experiences, he emphasizes the need for collective action to combat hatred.

"The hate in our country is getting out of control...we're all on the same team in this country."
— Colin Cowherd [00:00]

2. NFL Analysis: Rams vs. 49ers Showdown

Colin delves into the recent game between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, highlighting the Rams' flawless performance and the implications for the playoff race.

• Rams' Offensive Mastery:
  Colin praises the Rams for their exceptional offensive execution, noting their ability to play flawlessly even against a strong opponent like Buffalo.

  "They played a flawless football game against Buffalo."
  — Colin Cowherd [04:10]

• 49ers' Struggles with Key Players:
  The discussion points out the 49ers' difficulties with injuries, particularly focusing on players like Deebo Samuel and Brock Purdy. Colin criticizes Purdy's performance and contract, labeling him a "B quarterback."

  "He is a guy. He didn't get passed by everybody in this draft... He's a B quarterback."
  — Colin Cowherd [09:45]

• Rams' Defensive Youth:
  While praising the Rams, Colin mentions their defense feeling young, akin to the Packers, and the need for a top corner back.

  "The Rams feel a little young on defense... they still need a number one corner in the draft."
  — Colin Cowherd [15:30]

3. Bill Belichick's Potential Move to North Carolina

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the speculation surrounding NFL legend Bill Belichick and his rumored move to coach at the University of North Carolina (UNC).

• Contractual Clauses and Predictions:
  Colin discusses the unusual clause in Belichick's contract, allowing him to leave after one year with a minimal buyout. He predicts Belichick will coach UNC for a year before returning to the NFL, possibly handing over coaching duties to his son.

  "I do my prediction, he'll leave after one year and bolt his contract."
  — Colin Cowherd [25:50]

• Impact on College Football:
  The potential shift of Belichick to college football raises questions about the integration of NFL coaching strategies into the collegiate system and the future dynamics of college football.

  "College football is going to go if I, if I'm the Big Ten who like the SEC is carrying college football with the ratings."
  — Colin Cowherd [32:00]

• Broader Implications:
  Colin touches on the challenges college football faces, such as the disparity between conferences and the influence of the transfer portal and NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals.

  "The unintended benefit of, of the transfer portal in NIL is there's no more Alabamas."
  — Colin Cowherd [38:00]

4. Quarterback Talent and NFL Dynamics

Colin engages in an in-depth discussion about the evolving landscape of quarterbacks in the NFL, focusing on stars like Josh Allen and emerging talents like Sam Darnold.

• Josh Allen's Ascendancy:
  He posits Josh Allen as one of the most talented quarterbacks ever, comparing his playstyle and impact to other greats.

  "Josh Allen is one of the best players in any sport I've ever watched."
  — Colin Cowherd [25:30]

• Sam Darnold's Potential:
  Analyzing the Minnesota Vikings' quarterback, Colin highlights Darnold's current performance and potential future, despite his challenges and past surgeries.

  "Sam Darnold's high end is higher than Baker because his mobility bigger."
  — Colin Cowherd [33:50]

• Critique of Dak Prescott:
  Colin is critical of Dak Prescott's abilities and contract, suggesting that his performance doesn't justify his hefty payday.

  "You say you don't want to get into that space. Pittsburgh will probably play Russell Wilson."
  — Colin Cowherd [27:00]

5. College Football Playoff Structure Debate

The conversation shifts to the newly established 12-team College Football Playoff, with Colin expressing skepticism about its fairness and representation.

• SEC Dominance vs. Other Conferences:
  Colin argues that despite the SEC's popularity and strength, the playoff structure limits its representation, disadvantaging other strong teams from different conferences.

  "The SEC ratings have been insane... we only get three teams in."
  — Colin Cowherd [37:20]

• Criticism of Team Selection:
  He critiques the selection committee's choices, pointing out perceived inconsistencies in admitting teams like SMU over others with stronger records or competition.

  "Oklahoma was a bad team and they got overrun by them... I think SMU may be a better story."
  — Colin Cowherd [38:30]

• Weather and Scheduling Concerns:
  Colin highlights logistical issues, such as unfavorable weather conditions for key playoff games, which could impact team performances and outcomes.

  "Ohio State hosting Tennessee first round playoff game... 41 degrees and wet."
  — Colin Cowherd [44:00]

6. Betting Insights and Predictions with Chad Millman

Colin teams up with Chad Millman to discuss betting strategies, odds, and predictions for upcoming NFL games.

• Reverse Line Movements:
  They explore the concept of reverse line moves, where the betting line moves contrary to the public wager trends, indicating insider knowledge from professional bettors.

  "When you see a line move that goes in the direction of one side that is opposite of where the betting tickets are, that's a reverse line move."
  — Chad Millman [78:30]

• Specific Game Predictions:
  Colin and Chad analyze several upcoming games, including:

  • Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions:
    Colin leans towards betting on the Lions, citing their improved defensive lineup and the Bills' recent performance issues.

    "I like Buffalo plus two and a half now."
    — Justin Jefferson [76:35]

  • Steelers vs. Eagles:
    They discuss the strengths of both teams, ultimately favoring the Steelers due to Pittsburgh's consistent performance and coaching prowess.

    "I'll take the Steelers. Sharp or square?"
    — Chad Millman [80:52]

  • Bears vs. Vikings:
    The duo debates the Bears receiving additional points, with Colin expressing uncertainties about the matchup dynamics.

    "I do think they have a very good roster. This is again seems out of whack. Six and a half."
    — Justin Jefferson [87:01]

  • Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs:
    They analyze the potential outcomes, factoring in team dynamics, quarterback performances, and recent form.

    "The wise guys are willing to literally make that bet. So they're playing Cleveland."
    — Chad Millman [94:11]

7. Closing Thoughts and Final Insights

Colin wraps up the episode by reiterating key points from the discussions, emphasizing the need for strategic thinking in both coaching and player evaluations.

"This is a run quarterback league again in nine months."
— Colin Cowherd [34:09]

"Continuing down this path is disastrous. So I would love it if baseball did something drastic, because then I think the NBA would look at itself hopefully."
— Justin Jefferson [57:39]

Key Takeaways:

• Rams' Dominance: The Rams showcased superior football strategies, positioning themselves strongly for the playoffs.
• Belichick's Future: Speculation surrounds Bill Belichick's potential short-term move to UNC, which could influence both college and NFL coaching landscapes.
• QB Evolution: Josh Allen is highlighted as a top-tier quarterback, while Sam Darnold shows promise despite setbacks.
• Playoff Structure Flaws: The new College Football Playoff system faces criticism for its handling of conference dominance and team selection.
• Betting Strategies: Understanding reverse line moves and leveraging insider insights can enhance betting outcomes.

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Notable Quotes:

• "Josh Allen is one of the best players in any sport I've ever watched." — Colin Cowherd [25:30]
• "We need to stop, regroup, change the momentum as a team." — Colin Cowherd [00:00]
• "The hate in our country is getting out of control." — Colin Cowherd [00:00]
• "College football is going to go if I'm the Big Ten who like the SEC is carrying college football with the ratings." — Colin Cowherd [37:20]

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Conclusion: This episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd offers a comprehensive analysis of current NFL dynamics, coaching speculations, and the evolving landscape of college football playoffs. Coupled with strategic betting insights, Colin provides listeners with both entertainment and valuable information to navigate the complexities of modern football.

Transcript

[Doug Gottlieb]

This is Doug Gottlieb from All Ball with Doug Gottlieb. Listen, I'm gonna get serious for a minute and talk about something personal. The hate in our country is getting out of control. In fact, it's at an all time high and people are facing just too much hate. A lot of people don't think it's a problem, I can tell you. I've experienced it firsthand. You know, living outside of the country in Russia when my teammates found out I was Jewish and at the time, granted this is 25 years ago, I couldn't get into the country of Dubai. They just treated me differently. I knew what they were saying in Russian because I could speak it, but they didn't know I understood that they were talking behind my back. Look, there's lots of examples of it, but it's going to take all of us to stop this sort of hate because we're all on the same team in this country. So let's take a break from our hate so our team can regroup and regain our momentum. We need to take a time out against hate. Visit standuptolhate.org to help and join me in calling for time out against hate by following the at what's up with Hate? Or posting the Blue Square emoji standup to allhate.org that's the place to go if you want to help.

[Justin Jefferson]

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[Justin Jefferson]

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[Colin Cowherd]

Prime Video makes the catch Touchdown this week the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers in a game with big play. Playoff implications.

[Unknown]

This is unbelievable.

[Colin Cowherd]

Coverage begins with TNF tonight.

[Justin Jefferson]

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[Colin Cowherd]

A 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Broncos and Chargers Thursday only on Prime Video.

[Justin Jefferson]

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[Justin Jefferson]

New finance device, qualifying credit and port in 90 plus days with device and eligible carrier and timely redemption required. The volume. Let's talk about something really, really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan. It's America's largest injury law firm and they are there for you. Over 100 offices nationwide. Think about that. More than a thousand lawyers with over 20 billion. That's a B. $20 billion recovered for over 500,000 clients. Things happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan and Morgan is really, really easy. Like winning in the NFL is hard. We know that quarterbacking in the NFL is hard. Submitting a claim is easy. You're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. For more information go to forthepeople.com Colin or dial pound law from your cell phone. Pretty easy. That's forthepeople.com Colin or law529 from your cell. Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record of fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement. All right, instant reaction. We have all sorts of stuff. I'm going to give you about 12 to 15 minutes on the Rams Niners and some Belichick thoughts. Something was uncovered tonight that's fascinating. Chad Millman, Sharper Square. We're going to also talk Belichick and UFOs. You know, why not? So the Rams beat the 49ers 12 to 6. So the first thing is I did, I stayed away from this game. I wouldn't touch it. I could have done a DraftKings bet. I said there's too many injuries, weather is shaky and the Rams just played a flawless football game against Buffalo. Then you got to get on a plane Wednesday, fly to your rival division game. Like I didn't know what I just, I knew the Rams were going to be off. You cannot play a game against a team like Buffalo. A high stakes game and be flawless even with men. This isn't college but to go on the road against your rival. Greenlaw's back Bosa played. So they won and you have to be healthy. But they won and you have to be happy. But here's the thing. So all these wide Receivers do you know Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase and Deebo Samuel's record this year? 17 and 23. Top five rushing teams are all right now in the playoffs, you got to be careful with diva wide receivers. Debo wants the ball. Oh, Deebo can't catch the ball tonight on an underneath route where he had a chance to peel off a huge play, potentially a touchdown, and they settled for a field goal. You could clearly see the Niners trying to appease Debo and get him the ball and force it. I like him better as a running back, a receiver anyway. I think his yards after the catch and his running ability is much greater than his separation ability. I think he's become sort of a banged up poor man. Dan Quan Bolden that, you know, doesn't separate, but he's physically tough and a nice player. But this is so you have young Brock Purdy, you know, doesn't want to lose Debo. Iuk's already out for the year. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey hurt. So Debo picks the worst time to, you know, be high maintenance because, you know, Purdy's young, he doesn't have iuk. You know, Kittle is tremendous, but a lot of teams now are taking him out and spending a lot of coverage on him. So they forced the Debo and this is what you get. Biggest game of the year for the Niners. 197 total yards. You know, Brock Purdy in 13 starts. Everybody talks about him getting paid big money. It's a big mistake. I don't buy it. I never have. Doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, doesn't have Trent Williams in 13 starts this year, 15 touchdowns, nine picks, and you want to pay him $55 million the minute you take away his best players. He is a guy. He didn't get passed by everybody in this draft. You know, during Tom Brady's run, there were more sleepers. You find occasional sleepers. But scouting departments now are much more sophisticated. You know, in Brady's era, you didn' have all the YouTube stuff. You didn't have the ability to see some of these college games. They're all on television now. It's just really hard to hide people. Staffs are bigger, Scouting departments are bigger. There's just more sophistication. You know, Brock Purdy dropped to the seventh round. He's small. He doesn't have a big arm. He's athletic, but not special. Hands are a bit small. You know, and you're watching a guy that when you, when you lose people, what do you Get. And conversely, tonight, Matt Stafford, very, very rough first half. I mean, it was like the Niners defense had the Rams playbook. They knew where he was. He was just trying to beg him to throw an interception. And yet he showed exactly why he's a real franchise player on those big drives. Late third, early fourth quarter, using his feet two or three times, ducking out of stuff, really big third down throw. I wrote this. A big third down throw to Colby Parkinson late. Whereas Purdy, previously in the fourth quarter had a really, really ugly end zone pick. You saw the real separation here. Rams short week off, a highly emotional game on the road. Division rival, neither team has their fastball. Stafford in the second half after a shaky first, really made all the big throws. And because the coaches are both great, the offensive lines are good, not great. And that's the separation between the two. Yeah, I'm looking at this. Two big drives. Stafford in the second half. That's the ball game. And you know, people. People think I'm anti Purdy. No, but somebody's got to pop the balloon on this nonsense. I think Purdy is a less athletic Dak. Now, Dakota, after his second surgery here, is going to be even less athletic. He lost mobility after his first surgery. He'll be less athletic. You're seeing what it's doing to Aaron Rodgers. You're seeing what it's doing to Kirk Cousins. He's younger, but he won't be the same. And this is what holds the Cowboys back. They're paying a B quarterback A plus money. If you pay Purdy A minus money, he's a. He's a B quarterback. You just don't want to get into that space. Pittsburgh will probably play Russell Wilson. They're going to pay him B quarterback money. Darnold could be franchise tag for 40 million, 41 million. But that's B quarterback money. And I've said this. I wrote the Niners obituary three or four weeks ago. I don't think this is a tweak. I don't think it's a tweak. I think both Iuk and Deebo are now pretty verbal. Neither seems terribly happy. Kittle's terrific, but he's a tight end. He is aging. Trent Williams doesn't have much left on the tires, so I think they have to rebuild both offensive lines. And conversely, the Rams are really well coached. I said, outside of the Lions, I'm not sure there's a team in the league that has a better offensive head coach, quarterback, star, running back and two elite receivers. And they're doing it without Tyler Higsby, their top tight end who is coming back soon. So as the Rams offensive line has gotten healthier over the last month, Stafford's been exceptional. You noticed it tonight. He had better protection. Now they're getting their tight end back to go along with Colby Parkinson and David Allen. So all of a sudden now the Rams are healthy down the stretch and I think they can play with anybody. Now their defense, they're a little like the Packers. They feel like they're a tad young. The packers are young on offense, the Rams feel a little young on def. And they still need a number one corner in the draft. But this is a real Rams team and I think they solidified their playoffs tonight. It's a quarterback coach league and nothing against Shanahan, but he's got Purdy and Stafford and McVeigh are another level. So congratulations. So I want to add this because this came down tonight. So Chad Milman and I talked some Belichick but I didn't have this information. So I made the prediction today on FS1. I said my take is Bill Belichick, easy schedule. Carolina is going to win eight or nine games and maybe get to the playoff but get to a big bowl. But I don't necessarily think he'll coach in that bowl. I think Belichick is going to get irritated. His coaching and his structure and the personnel with Mike Lombardi will be fine. I don't think those guys are long term fits at the college level. They've got a very Charlie Weiss field but even more blunt and Belichick's got so much power and because Lombardi's his friend, Lombardi's got power. I think they'll. It could be pretty rough. They're pretty terse, blunt, you know, outspoken guys, both very, very talented. I know Mike Lombardi is very talented guy and I wish them both well. But it comes out tonight. Belichick's deal has a buyout of only $1 million and he can leave after June 1 this year. Now he's not going to. Duh. Nobody hires a coach after June 1, obviously. But I said today I think he's going to coach one year and go back and get an offer in the NFL and then I think he's going to hand it over to his son. So there's some things that will come out in the contract and I do think Bill wanted the Bears job. They're not interested. I think he's really interested in the Jacksonville job. They're not interested. Mike Vrabel by the way. And I talked to Mike vrabel for about 15 minutes this morning and I'm not going to give out a lot of details of that, but you know, one of the things I told Mike, I said you're now the number one candidate. I'm just not sure there are any jobs worthy of your coaching ability. I think next year is a much more interesting year. If you look at Zach Taylor, Cincinnati, I think he'll retain his job. I'm not sure if he'll retain it. If the Bengals have another season like this, keep your eye on that. I think Mike McCarthy will keep his job potentially, and so will Brian D. But both the Giants with a Shadur Sanders at quarterback and the Cowboys could have openings. I think the openings this year, too many impulsive, odd ownership executive areas. Jets, Bears, Jacksonville. But Belichick, I'll say it again, I said it on the air today. I think he'll stay one year and bolt his contract. He could bolt after June 1st this year. He's not going to. But my prediction, he'll leave after one year. And Bill Parcells twice did. Broadcasting bolted, told people, I'm going to stay bolted. Bill's a coach. Sean Payton stayed for a year, loved it. I mean, Sean really loved working as an analyst. He left Bill Belichick's coach and I, and I do think he'll. I mean, I saw and talked at length today about the schedule at North Carolina. The ACC is so bad. I mean, it's. He gets Clemson at home, there's not another game that he can't win. Syracuse on the road can be a little dicey, but so it's just interesting, in order for that to be in the contract, Bill Belichick demanded that it was in the contract because as I told you, Jimmy Sexton, the top agent in college football, he's not sending his top clients there. And Belichick's not represented by Jimmy Sexton. So this is not a very highly coveted job because the push and pull between kind of academics and football, the chancellor, I think it's always been a little bit of a sleeping giant, but it's had some good years with Mack Brown the first time and Mac Brown the second time. But to get that in the contract, you wanted it in the contract and demanded it be in the contract. Okay. I've never seen a contract stipulation like that that he could leave basically after June 1st. And again, he's not leaving this year. That's never what I said. But I do my prediction, he will leave after One year. He would deny that, obviously. But college football is, I mean, you're seeing on a weekly basis guys that love college football. Young coaches talk about how frustrating the portal, the lack of regulations and the nil is. I still contend the nil should have about an $18 billion salary cap. NFL's got one. Otherwise, you're going to get a separation of Texas band 40 million and spending 3. I just. It will be. It will be. You know, even the disparity between the top and the bottom will be even greater than it is now. And it's pretty great. Now, Belichick's deal, that is a very interesting clause, one that he wanted or he wouldn't have fought for it and one that North Carolina agreed with. North Carolina is telling you, hey, just bringing you on campus, getting the publicity, elevating our nil from 4 million to 18 to 20 million, adding a professional structure to our program. Hey, we appreciate it. We need that. The world's changing and we're not ready for it. And if you're willing, in one year, give us at least one full year. And I, and I think even though that's in the contract, I think it's understood Bill wouldn't bolt. June 2. Nobody's hiring coaches then. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football, hockey, action at DraftKings sportsbook. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted. College football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey to almost 24, 7. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day. So many opportunities to place your first. Now, if you're going to bet for the first time, just make it simple. Pick a team. To win, any team, go to DraftKings Sportsbook. They have an app. Download it. 90 seconds. Here's the gift for all new customers. Bet 5 bucks. Just 5 bucks. If your bet wins, you get $150 in bonus bets. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. The code is Colin C O L I N New customers. 150 bucks in bonus bets. If you bet 5 bucks and it wins. Happy holidays from DraftKings. Crown is yours. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in New York. Call 8778 Open Y or text Hopeny 467-369 in Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Please play responsibly on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort in Kansas. 21 and over. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bet must win to receive reward. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng.co.

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[Doug Gottlieb]

Congratulations to CBS Sports and Sony Electronics for their first place wins for Innovation in industry at this year's unconventional Awards by T Mobile for Business In a collaboration that was clearly built on breaking new ground, CBS and Sony created a first of its kind broadcast for the PGA Championship. Using a custom built T Mobile Private 5G network to power the live production, they deployed a 5G wireless camera system throughout the event. The network's speed, combined with Sony's innovative ultra low latency video codec allowed for seamless, high quality footage without disruption. With that innovative approach, CBS gave broadcasters the tools they need to do what they do best take their coverage to entirely new places. These innovations will shape the way live sports are covered moving forward, and for that, T Mobile congratulates Sony and CBS for their unconventional thinking.

[Justin Jefferson]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[LeVar Arrington]

Levar Arrington here from up on Game and listen, I want to talk to you about something very serious for a minute, all right? Something personal to me and right now something that should be personal to you as well. In our country, the hate is at an all time high and it's like we're going backward. The hate is winning. We can't allow that, all right? It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate. And it's enough. It's time for it to stop. We need to stop, regroup, change the momentum as a team because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team. So let's act like it. And when a team can't get it together, what do you do? You call a timeout. And that's what we need to do. Call a time out against hate. Let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate, when we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong and hateful, we need to call it out. Imma call it out. You need to do the same thing. Visit standuptolhate.org to help and join me in calling for a timeout against hate by following at what's up with hate? Or posting the blue square emoji.

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Deck your home this holiday season with Blinds.com save up to 45% on select styles plus a free professional measure. Blinds.com rules and restrictions may apply. John M. Former NFL scout with the Philadelphia Eagles has the three and out podcast. Josh Allen. First player in the history of the sport as a quarterback to have three rushing and three passing touchdowns in the same game. If you did not see this game, it may be the single greatest. I don't think I've ever seen a moment of a player carrying a franchise. The secondary for the Bills was banged up and torched. They came in with no juice. He single handedly kept them in the game with running play. Not just, not just casual running plays. Not six, eight yards like 25, 35, 40 yard running plays. I mean Mahomes has all the trophies. Mahomes is not as talented as Josh Allen. Josh Allen's insane. And I thought this was a, you know, puka's had injury issues. So has Cooper cup, and they're going to draft a receiver. I'm pretty strongly a believer of that, but it shows you why. The Rams are now seven and six. And with Arizona fumbling, San Francisco feels big win today for them, but feels like they're just a little disjointed. If the Rams sneak into the playoffs, John, watch out, because I would have no interest playing this team.

[Colin Cowherd]

Well, to me, Thursday night they play the Niners. So they could kind of end the Niners season, right? They could end the Niner season. They would be 8 and 6 and they would be in position. Seattle's. If Mike McDonald was an offensive coach, we'd be talking about him like a McVeigh or Shanahan, but he coaches defense. He's done a fantastic job, but this is must win for really. The Niners, you know, aren't really alive. And they lost another player today. At the end of the game, their running back got hurt. So now they're on their seventh running back. But the Rams. This goes back to last year when Puka plays like this. He had 12 for 160. He becomes, you know, essentially he becomes like a Marvin Harrison or a Chris Carter or, you know, Justin. He becomes an unstoppable force. They are tough to beat because I was texting with some buddies this week. Jared Verse and Fisk are so good. Yeah, those. Those two draft picks are immediately people around the league. They're violent because he's like. I was texting with a buddy who's like, you know, their. Their talent on defense isn't that great, but their defensive line is violent. Excellent. It starts with those two guys.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

And a lot of people thought, like, is Fisk a little bit of an overdraft? You know, Verse, will his power translate? It's translated.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Those two guys are ass kickers. To me, it's all about Puka, who they had to wrap at the end of the game. Now, he came back in something to monitor now, short week, but the other thing, and you hit on it. We have a lot of these arguments, I think, on social media. And when we talk about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, I understand Lamar has a couple MVPs. Now. Last year's MVP was not a great MVP season. Like, if you look at his numbers, he had a much better season in 19. Statistically, up until a couple of weeks ago, he was blowing that season away. This year, Josh Allen is one of the best players in any sport I've ever watched.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yes.

[Colin Cowherd]

Like, how are we arguing when we watch this guy play.

[Justin Jefferson]

No. Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Does he throw a couple picks?

[Unknown]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

So did Favre.

[Justin Jefferson]

What am I talking about? He is, to me, Ohtani. He is different than the other great players like Ohtani. Mookie Betts is amazing, but he looks small compared to Ohtani because he is. I mean, it has an Ohtani feel. Like, wow, you may be watching, you may be watching the greatest talent ever. I mean, John Elway ran. He didn't do this. John Elway was strong. He wasn't this. John Elway had a good arm. I'm not sure it was this like. And again, we all acknowledge Mahomes, but Mahomes has Reed great ownership. I mean, everything is Patrick's terrific. But what I watch today, I mean, just here's the thing I worry about with Buffalo. Kansas City never delivers that Kansas City, when they show up with no juice. Now this did happen early in Mahomes career, they'd fall behind 24 to 10 and you'd be like, oh my God. But in the last three years, Kansas City does not do this. You can beat them, you can beat them at Arrowhead, but they rarely come with no juice. And that's a team with two trophies. Buffalo doesn't have one. And it worries me at times like the first half was 24:14. The Rams did whatever they wanted to. Kyron Williams ran Pooker Cup. I mean they just did whatever they wanted to. I mean it was like eight man football for Buffalo. It's like, is anybody guarding the receivers? That does trouble me. They were on about a four or five week run where I had not seen this. But don't they give you this about four times a year?

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah, and they've been doing it now for a couple of years, but then they bounce back. You know, next week they're playing Detroit, who still, I would imagine even with the mini buy still going to have a bunch of injuries. Like that's a pretty big moment for Buffalo because Colin, they finish with Patriots, Jets.

[Unknown]

Patriots, yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

So they should be able to sleepwalk to go three and oh down the stretch. But we'll have to see. You know, Kansas City still got a couple tough games. Every game they play is close. I don't think this totally kills Buffalo from the number one seed. Cause if you look at Pittsburgh's last four games, it's like Philly, Baltimore.

[Justin Jefferson]

Oh, brutal.

[Colin Cowherd]

They got a tough, they got a tough schedule. So to me, Buffalo, their schedule eases up. And I think we're going to learn a lot about them with Detroit because we Already know about Detroit, right? Their competitive character, their makeup. You can never write them off. They could be throwing me and you out there on defense. But today was. The first half was embarrassing for Buffalo. That can't happen if you want to win a Super Bowl. And they're not, even when healthy, are talented enough to just cruise by. Right. The defense is not loaded with names on the back end.

[Justin Jefferson]

Once you pay your star quarterback. Kansas City has offensive tackle issues. They're still trying to figure out frankly, their receiving core, they're not as good at corner as they were last year. Like it's, it's there. Once you pay the quarterback, you're. I mean, right now, Baltimore's back end Joe Burrow's defense is atrocious. If you look at Stafford, let's be honest about it, the offensive line, it feels like they're playing catch up with the Rams the last several years. They, they, they don't pay a single person right now. On the defensive side, they can't afford to. So I just, I think it really. That's why coaching and quarterback play, John, is so essential. In January, December and early February, there are no perfect teams. They're just. You can't. In the transfer portal, by the way, has done this to college football in the nl the minute you think you're loaded, you lose all like an Ohio State can't carry three great tackles because somebody poaches the best tackle they have. That's not starting. So like in college football, the, the unintended benefit of, of the transfer portal in NIL is there's no more Alabamas. That's over. Like there's just too many teams here. And when I watch the NFL, you're like quarterback play and coaching obviously matters, but there are. Coaching becomes essential because I mean you watch Buffalo in the back end today. Baltimore's back end. Jesus, it's. Those are bad secondaries. Vikings 42, Atlanta 21. Good first half. And then Minnesota took over. I push back. When you suggested that Minnesota may have to resign Sam Darnold, first of all, he's going to have a very tasty free agent market. Vegas, Giants, Tennessee minimum are going to at least look at it. If they don't like Cam Ward, Shador Sanders will go number one to either Vegas or the Giants. I think he will. Not everybody's going to like Cam Ward, but if you look in the last month, Darnold has 11 TDs, no picks. This receiving core plus TJ Hawkinson, Jefferson and Addison had five touchdowns today. We got to be honest about this in the history of the league. You could put him in a very rich Gannon class. Like nobody believes in him to. He's a top three quarterback, top four quarterback in the league playing right now. I'm watching Darnold make plays today. And our thing was we all, I think we both felt the same. Big, strong, athletic, coachable, tough kid. But his, his accuracy could be hit and miss. Well, Kevin OConnell's taken the reckless out and elevated, you know, he's made it very intentional. Sam goes back to pass, you get a very intentional play. And if he has to ad lib, which he did today, he's fantastic. He's not Lamar or Josh, but he is way high end in this league. He is. He is in the Justin Herbert class. Like, I'm going to move and I'm going to crank it. And I never thought this. He's had one stinker all year. He had three. A couple picks against the Jags. They won that game. Remember that game down in Jacksonville? They were terrible in the red zone. So a stinker. They won. They could still be a number one seed. I think I'm sitting here thinking today, do you let him walk out of the building?

[Colin Cowherd]

I think at minimum right now he's in the category. If you don't want to do the long term, you got to franchise him right now. The problem with franchising, it's $41 million for a quarterback. And unlike these contracts, you don't get to push any of that off on, you know, years in the Future. He has 28 touchdowns right now. Colin, they have four games left. He has 28 touchdowns and they were 11 and 2. The one play you're alluding to, when he scrambled around, he kind of did a360, went across, threw it to Jefferson across his body. I thought that looked like Josh Allen.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

And that was a play today. If you are the GM and the head coach, you go, this is exactly why we said, kirk Cousins, we're not in the market for you anymore. Because you don't one. You've never had that in the bag. But the version that we're seeing out of Cousins, Cousins just got $100 million guaranteed. He hasn't thrown a touchdown in four weeks. And he's throwing picks just by the, you know, multiple picks, every. I mean, he might be cooked. Like you saw today was a pivot point. One guy's career feels like it's kind of headed toward the drain. Like, is he even going to be starting next week?

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

And the other Guy is exploding. And you use Rich Gannon as your example. Rich Gannon did not have this level arm. Rich Gannon did not. That was the knock on Rich. Why A lot of people back in the day were like, you know, it was hard for Gruden to sell Al Davis on Rich because he liked those big arm quarterbacks. And that wasn't Rich. But Rich was really accurate. Sam Darnold, 68% this season.

[Justin Jefferson]

Colin Crazy.

[Colin Cowherd]

Now, listen, he's going to turn the ball over a little bit. He's got 10 picks, probably end up with 13 or 14. How often do you watch him and just see him explode the ball down the field? Well, now that they're left tackles injured, the best two players on the Vikings are the two whiteouts. So those guys are thriving under Sam. How could you? I've said before, today is a great example. He threw five touchdowns against a team with a lot of good defensive secondary pieces.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

In your wildest dreams, you would desire JJ to become this player one day, to be that good. What we witnessed today and the chances, based on the history of we all watching the NFL and knowing how hard this league is, it's less than 50% he's ever that good. Well, Sam currently is this good and now has this, I would say, you know, resume of life in the league, of building on calluses, going through adversity, being very confident in himself, but having humility to know how hard it is. Like, he's seen it all. He has seen the worst of the worst. And then with Kyle and now Kevin O'Connell, I understand that they drafted a quarterback, but sometimes things change.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

I mean, the 49ers drafted Trey Lance and they pivoted in the blink of an eye to Per. And sometimes you just. That's isn't that part. You started the volume, like, pivot fast. Right. I mean, you know Sam Darnold. Yeah. So what? He's going to cost you a lot of money if he's a top five or six quarterback in the nfc. I mean, this year, how many NFC quarterbacks are better than him? He's better than Jalen Hurts right now.

[Justin Jefferson]

Well, we're talking about Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield had a good quarter today, but was awful for long stretches in the game. Awful. Gino Smith, three turnovers. Yeah. Baker was awful. And that, by the way. And I've tried to be very positive with Baker because I was so rough on him early, but he can be really, really reckless, and you can't coach that out of him. He's just a Different personality. He literally lives for chip on his shoulder. Sam doesn't have that. Sam's not trying to prove anything other than I'm good. Sam's like a beach boy. He's having a good time. He's an Oceanside linebacker. Basketball. He's an athlete. He's a great kid. Baker's got that chip a mile long. Baker's battled his own family at times. It's part of his great fabric and his story. I love but Geno Smith, there's limitations. Baker is reckless. Darnold, you're getting a higher upside with. I mean, I always thought Baker was a better pure pocket passer this year. I'm not sure. And some of it's Justin Jefferson, but it's not like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the guys down there are bad either. I just think letting him walk out the door, what if he goes to an NFC team?

[Colin Cowherd]

To me though, use Baker as a good example. Aren't we all a little bit of a product of our past? I mean, Baker was a walk on at Texas Tech at 6ft tall.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Sam Darnold's 6 foot 4 at USC in the, in the most turmoil time in the history of the program leads him to 11 plus wins. I mean in the ugliness of the mid 2010s. He's a strapping big arm. Like he's a confident chipper.

[Justin Jefferson]

He won a Rose bowl against a good Penn State team with a really bad college football coach and no pros around him. I mean that you go back to that year and it was hero ball. That's all it was.

[Colin Cowherd]

I'm pro Baker and he's really matured. He's become a good player. But the skill set of the two, Sam is the more dynamic player.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yes.

[Colin Cowherd]

Looking back like if you did a redraft. Yeah. I think both of them probably aren't going 1 and 3, but clearly they've lived up to like they're going to play in the league for a long time. Sam's high end is higher than Baker because his mobility bigger. And I just think it's pretty clear. You watch Sam, he's got an explosive arm and on the move, he can really sling it. And that's the playmaking. Minnesota, what limited the la, limited that team the last couple years. You know, Cousins was a stagnant. Can't move if you throw him off the spot. Sam's unfaced, got ad lib. No problem. Let's rip.

[Justin Jefferson]

All right, let's talk College football. The 12 team playoff has Come out. Listen, let's get the one thing out of the way. I think Bama's better than smu. But Bama doesn't have an argument. I watched him get completely shelled against a Oklahoma team that was 2 and 6 in conference with like a minus 79 point point differential in conference. Oklahoma was a bad team and they got, I mean literally agree, overrun by them. So I don't have any problem. Again, the regular season has to mean something. Yes, Bama's beaten more good teams. If Bama got in, I wouldn't lose any sleep if SMU did not. But I felt the same way both ways. I would have taken probably a Bama. But smu, after a really hard fought loss, kind of felt like the move. And I also think, listen, Bama's not consistent enough to be a national champion. SMU is not going to be a national champion. SMU may be a better story. It's better for the sport. Big picture. I don't think anybody on the heels of Alabama's, you know, 15 year dynasty is losing sleep because they don't get in.

[Colin Cowherd]

I don't disagree. But if I was part of the sec, here's what I would say. College football, I mean based on the numbers, has never been more popular. Like more people consistently have never watched more. And the SEC ratings have been insane. So we are carrying the popularity of this sport as a conference and have carried the sport really for a long time now and we only get three teams in. That's where you can just see them. Even if it is justified as it is in this situation. All these teams, Ole Miss lost to Kentucky. If any of these SEC teams is 10 and 2, they are easily in over SMU. We all agree, but like we want guarantees. And this is where I think college football is going to go if I, if I'm the Big Ten who like the SEC is carrying college football with the ratings. The ACC is simply not like I want to know, because getting into the playoffs is very financial viable for the conference.

[Justin Jefferson]

Right.

[Colin Cowherd]

That's the same thing with the NCAA tournament. And now we only get. We only get one difference. Like the difference of us in the SEC is in the ACC is one team. That seems crazy. Yeah, I watch an unhealthy amount of college football. The gap between the two conferences, huge. It's Grand Canyon wide. So even if you could justify it, records and everything, that's a big picture problem for me. If I'm Greg Sankey.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

We need some assurances. And this is where like the NFL, you Know what do tiebreakers go? Conference record. It's impossible to do tiebreakers and everything in college football because the SEC goes my 8 and 4. What is that worth in the. In the ACC? Am I 10 and 2 in the ACC? Like by Big 12? Arizona State's an incredible story. What would their record be if I put them playing lsu, Bama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, you know, so it's. It's not apples to apples at all.

[Justin Jefferson]

That's right.

[Colin Cowherd]

And that's the hard part. I think we all agree on that. Even if we go, yeah, SMU deserves it, but it's like it's a little out of whack now it's first year. I'm not going to complain that much. I don't feel that bad. And I think the committee wanted Alabama because I do think Alabama. The needle moves a little more when you got Alabama playing because whose SMU is playing? Penn State? Like, yeah, Alabama. Penn State's just a better television product. Is it?

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah. So here's the one that really cracked me up. So the regular season, the committee said the regular season matters. We're not going to give Bama three losses, two of which are Mulligans, Vandy and Oklahoma. But yet in Oregon has the most impressive regular season and arguably the most impressive championship game performance. George is up there as well. They get the winner of the Tennessee Ohio State game, which is a team capable of winning the national championship. Then they could face Texas, then Georgia. How did Penn State get an easier route? They lost at home to Ohio State and got hammered by Oregon. I think they have now they play another game. I think they have a much easier route than Oregon. I thought Oregon kind of got hosed.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah. To me, them copying the basketball bracket where you're forced to play team instead of the NFL bracket where you recede by the round.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yes. Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

To me you got to change football wise. Recede by the round.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yes. Yes.

[Colin Cowherd]

Because Oregon has the only undefeated team. Clearly if you just watch the best.

[Justin Jefferson]

Team currently in the second best conference.

[Colin Cowherd]

And they get stuck with Ohio State, Tennessee, that seems pretty outrageous.

[Justin Jefferson]

I thought so.

[Colin Cowherd]

Because if they could pick the opponents, I think there's a decent chance that Ohio State would be the last opponent they would want to play. Maybe Notre Dame second. And Tennessee would be high up there too, like the SMU's, the Clemsons. You got a receipt? Now this is where I'm not going to freak out. Year one, you got to figure it out. But you cannot keep this. How can Boise and ASU potentially get easier opponents Than Oregon.

[Justin Jefferson]

Well, I mean, Penn State, I think.

[Colin Cowherd]

They would say Oregon's going to play the Rose Bowl. Like that's where their game's going to be, I think in like their home game. So, you know, it's kind of regionality. But playing Ohio State potentially, that's, that's pretty difficult.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah. And Ohio State will fill half that stadium. I mean Penn State gets SMU and Boise State. I mean potentially it's like, Jesus, the biggest game of the year at home. They lost to Ohio State and I mean they got pushed around. I mean, they could not stop Oregon. I just thought Penn State. And I understand punishing. If you flip Penn State and Ohio State in the playoff, I think it's more fair. Now Ohio State again, the Michigan loss was not only bad, not only at home, but it made you question the entire program. Like when Penn State lost to Ohio State, you didn't question the program. You. Well, Ohio State's better that that, that Michigan. I mean, listen, if you want to ask yourself who should, who's getting punished, it's Ohio State. You. I think Tennessee is the sleeper national championship pick in this thing.

[Colin Cowherd]

I was, I thought Herb street had a good point during the show when they released the bracket of, you know, Ohio State maybe would rather go on the road because a couple early three and outs, maybe you're down seven, nothing, ten, nothing. That place will turn on you fast because that group's edgy. That group's already pissed off.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

In a weird way, at 10 and 2, hosting a playoff game is a major disappointment.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

You know, watching that game last night, I thought it was so insane that Clemson is now in the playoffs and Miami's just long gone. Even though all season Miami was like a top five or 16. And then Penn State, My takeaway with Penn State, Oregon's tough and that's their skill. Group is better top to bottom. I think Penn State has their front seven full NFL guys. Best tight end in the country. They have a 1, 2 running back combination quarterback, a little all over the map, but he is extremely talented. And you saw a couple passes where you went, whoa, that's a top 10 pick. And then you saw a couple other passes. You're like, that's a six round. But you never really know what you're going to get with them. But they have a lot of talent on their team. Like to me, if the quarterback has a B plus, a minus game, they could play with most anyone in this tournament. I'm with you on Tennessee. Their defensive line is really good. What's Ohio State's problem right now? Well, their offensive, they just had a guy tearing Achilles. They miss an. That could be a rough. I'm telling you, that place could start booing if it's like, listen, nothing in the second quarter.

[Justin Jefferson]

The weather forecast for this weekend in Columbus is 40 degrees and wet. It's not playing to a finesse down the field team. So will Howard, who's been hot and cold in big games. It's 40 degrees. The pressure's on. You'll be favored and Tennessee D line and Ohio State O line. If you're forced to run the ball against Tennessee, that's got a 1713 feel to it. That's not going to be a high scoring game in my opinion.

[Colin Cowherd]

One thing that's going to be, you know, for the most part in college, you get a couple and you hammered this home when they went when the west coast teams got in the Big Ten. There aren't as many cold weather games as you think in the NFL. There are why they play all through December through January. College football usually ends home games the last week in November, November warm weather bowls.

[Justin Jefferson]

That's right.

[Colin Cowherd]

That's where this changed because they don't, they're, they're playing in two weeks, right. And it's Friday night, Saturday night at South Bend and at Ohio State, which makes sense. I mean two of the biggest brands is going to get huge ratings. Plus the NFL play Saturday. So it gets a little lost in the shuffle, you know, like Texas, the Texas game and the Penn State game are going up against like Raven Steelers. So, you know, but those two night games are going to be by themselves. It could be really cold. I mean, so it's going to have one thing with playoff football. Even with the best teams, it's usually not 35 to 30 scores. Right. It's usually lower scoring. You can't, you can't feel your hands. I mean you could have a game in two weeks at Ohio State with it. Couldn't it be 27 degrees or Notre Dame? It could be freezing cold.

[Unknown]

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[Doug Gottlieb]

Congratulations to CBS Sports and Sony Electronics for their first place wins for innovation in industry at this year's Unconventional awards by T Mobile for Business. In a collaboration that was clearly built on breaking new ground, CBS and Sony created a first of its kind broadcast for the PGA Championship. Using a custom built T Mobile Private 5G network to power the live production, they deployed a 5G wireless camera system throughout the event. The network's speed combined with Sony's innovative ultra low latency video codec allowed for seamless, high quality footage without disruption. With that innovative approach, CBS gave broadcasters the tools they need to do what they do best. Take their coverage to entirely new places. These innovations will shape the way live sports are covered moving forward. And for that, T Mobile congratulates Sony and CBS for their unconventional thinking.

[LeVar Arrington]

Hey, this is Levar Arrington here from up on Game and listen, I want to talk to you about something very serious for a minute, all right? Something personal to me and right now something that should be personal to you as well. In our country, the hate is at an all time high and it's like we're going backward. The hate is winning. We can't allow that, all right? It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate. And it's enough. It's time for it to stop. We need to stop, regroup, change the momentum as a team because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team, so let's act like it. And when a team can't get it together, what do you do? You call a timeout. And that's what we need to do. Call a time out against hate. Let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate, when we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong and hateful, we need to call it out. I'ma call it out. You need to do the same thing. Visit standuptoallhate.org to help and join me and calling for a timeout against hate by following at what's up with hate or posting the blue square emoji.

[Colin Cowherd]

Thursday Night Football is on. And it's only on Prime Video makes the catch Touchdown this week, the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers in a game with big playoff implications.

[Unknown]

This is unbelievable.

[Colin Cowherd]

Coverage begins with TNF tonight.

[Justin Jefferson]

Not a Prime member sign up for.

[Colin Cowherd]

A 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Broncos and Chargers Thursday only on Prime.

[Justin Jefferson]

Video restrictions apply.

[Colin Cowherd]

See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.

[LeVar Arrington]

What's Poppin Justin Jefferson here. Football is a lot of explosions, a lot of energy and attitude. It's a whole different vibe with these open earbuds. It's like you're in the moment, but also you can hear everything around you. You can be involved. To have good sound and to be so light on your ear means a lot to me. Putting that music into my ears. You feel good enough to go out there and play, you turn on that switch, no one can stop you. For more, check out Bose.com.

[Justin Jefferson]

All right, I don't get him. Maybe every six weeks. Love to have him more. Nick Wright. So let me throw this at you. This is not a baseball topic. We don't talk a lot about it, but it's fascinating to me. So I'm agnostic on many things. I'm kind of an agnostic personality. From religion to almost anything. I tend to be just sort of. I weigh information and I pick the side I like. I don't have a lot of purity in me. Right. Like, I don't have a lot of loyalty outside of my wife and my children and friends. But. So baseball comes out with this golden at bat concept where basically you could. Bryce Harper gets an extra at bat every game or an Aaron Judge. You don't have to use it, but you can in a critical situation. And purists are bothered by this. And I'm fascinated by what purists are holding onto. And I've heard baseball people say, oh, I'll never watch another baseball game, as if Sandy Koufax's historic run is diluted by a new golden bat at bat concept in 2024. It's almost like saying it's not perfectly analogous, but gay marriage ruins the sanctity of previous marriage. Well, if you had a great marriage for 40 years, what does that. What does it have to.

[Unknown]

But also I, I will also say anybody that, like, we've all come to terms with the guy that most people feel like, probably correctly, is the greatest baseball player ever played at a time when a lot of the greatest baseball players ever were not allowed to be in the league because they were black or Hispanic. And it's just like, hey, we know that's part of the record. We know like there's people have an ability. Nobody with a brain looks back and is like, hey, I checked Terry Bradshaw stats, dude sucks. Look, it's like, no, it's like, I know that's what the record. But like those what the numbers are, but we all understand intuitively. Oh, that was a different era. So if we were to Have a golden at bat ear. And it's like, holy shit. A lot of three home run games out of nowhere. It's like, oh yeah, because they changed the rules. People are smarter than like we give them.

[Justin Jefferson]

But that's what I'm asking. We had the cattle steroid era. So all the records are power, records are meaningless and nobody really knows who took it. I mean, seriously, it's like trying to figure out which rich people cheated on their taxes. How about we start with all of them, right? Like, who knows? So my take is what are purists holding onto? Are these 48 year old men who still collect baseball cards like the idea. So the sport makes two changes. Both crush defensive shift, eliminated crush and a pitch clock. Okay, so all of a sudden the defensive shift, more base hits. Well, that's messing with the previous six, eight years.

[Unknown]

Right? And the thing closest to the golden at bat is the ghost runner. Ghost Runner thing, which you know, in made baseball cooler for the regular season. You don't want to put in the playoffs, that's fine.

[Justin Jefferson]

So what are purists holding onto that are outraged by a new concept? Well, I don't understand purists.

[Unknown]

I'm not the. I mean I understand them. I don't agree with them because ultimately what my. One of my fundamental beliefs that bothers, I think purists, but it's not even a belief, it's just a fact. Sports are simply entertainment products. That's all it is. We are part of the entertainment industry. We are in. We are fighting for attention and relevance in sports. And there is nothing inherently more valuable, moral, ethical, important to American professional football than American ultimate Frisbee. But one is the most valuable television property in the world and the other is something the best in the world at almost assuredly needs a real job because it doesn't pay the bills. So why is that? Because people like watching one and don't care about the other. That's exclusively why. There is no other reason. And the idea that you have a birthright to people's attention, go ask horse racing, go ask boxing, you don't. And so all of these sports. So here's the real reason. I love the gold and a bad idea. I like baseball, I love basketball and I'm worried about basketball. I am legitimately worried about the NBA because they have two massive issues that everyone knows is a problem. And I don't know that they have the stomach for the change that's needed. One is one that's been talked about a ton historically, which is the load Management, superstars not playing, whatever it is, I. I will give a quick anecdote on why that's my thoughts on that. Then I'll get to the real thing. I was in LA for 72 hours over Thanksgiving because our son lives there and he couldn't. We brought Thanksgiving to him, essentially that Friday night Lakers Thunder. And I'm like, you know what? My wife's grandparents are with us. They're 91 and 93. They love LeBron, have never seen him play. And I'm like, you know, what's the point of making money if you don't spend it on stuff like this? So I bought six tickets. Not courtside, but first row, behind courtside. Not cheap, right? But what I was like, it's a. I bought them at noon with full confidence. Well, LeBron's going to play because LeBron plays. You know what I mean? Like, LeBron, did he get hurt last night? Then he's playing like, even though he's the oldest guy in the league. And if it were any other superstar, I would have. When my wife mentioned to me, should we do it, I would have said, yes, but let's wait until like 5:00 to find out. That's terrible for the business. The other thing that is getting a lot of attention is the NBA's. At its core, the NBA's popularity is based on. Is that dude flying? Holy shit. Like, did not. Here's another 35 footer. And strategically, just like the shift. Strategically was smart, but from a television product, it was a disaster.

[Justin Jefferson]

Everybody looks the same every game. Every possession's the same.

[Unknown]

Every game looks the same. There's no different styles, there's no anything. And we're minimizing athleticism. John Morant goes on the record is like, I'm done dunking. Anthony Edwards taking 13 threes a game.

[Justin Jefferson]

It's awful.

[Unknown]

Clearly a disaster. A disaster. And so when I say massive changes, what I mean is, have a real conversation about, hey, dunks are also worth three now.

[Justin Jefferson]

Or. Or this.

[Unknown]

I don't care what it does.

[Justin Jefferson]

Two suggestions. One, and I said this seven years ago on the air and had a graphic. Take out the corner. Three, it's impossible to defend.

[LeVar Arrington]

Yes.

[Unknown]

Okay, that agreed. That should be done tomorrow.

[Justin Jefferson]

So it goes right into the bench. You put it, you move it out about 6 inches. Make a real arc.

[Unknown]

Make it a real arc.

[Justin Jefferson]

And so that's just much easier to defend. You can be on players. Or. This would be my. This is something I've thought about as well. And I don't know, I think you could do this is that you get 15 a game.

[Unknown]

That's what I said. Oh, yes, exactly. Right. Whatever the number is. That's the other thing.

[Justin Jefferson]

I was 15 a game. I don't know, 45 points, which is 40 points of your offense. 40% of your offense.

[LeVar Arrington]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

And by the way, you can still shoot them after that, but they're worth two. There's Kurt Goldsberry had the idea years ago that I thought was fascinating, which was, you know how baseball stadiums, everyone picks their own dimensions. You got a green monster, you got the short porch. Yankee Stadium, Royal Stadium is cavernous. Kurt Goldsberry says each year every team draws their three point line. And if like no. And the I and I know that sounds ridiculous, but his point was some teams will be like, we don't have one. But that's not who we are. We're building a old school beat you up that. You know what I mean? Big, big man style. The, the Blazers when they had primed Dame Lillard might have been like, ours is from 37ft out because we have the one guy who can. And if that were the case, you would ha. You would know, man, I better be able to play a bunch of different ways, score a bunch of different ways because shit, tonight we're in Oklahoma City and there's no threes whatever. So I don't know the exact right answer. What I know is this. If the NBA does not make a massive change, it is in huge trouble because they have, they have still, they're still suckling off the teat of LeBron. Steph KD, your most morant and Aunt.

[Justin Jefferson]

Edwards do not dunk. I mean, the Jordan logo. If you really think of even Dr. J's highlights today, Connie Hawkins, when I was a kid. They're irrelevant, of course.

[Unknown]

What are we doing? And here was another question that let.

[Justin Jefferson]

Me throw this at you. I said this about the NFL. I said, can you imagine if the NFL only allowed the tush push and bombs? There's no intermediates, no bubble screens. It's just power running or bombs. That's the NBA. It's not as appealing.

[Unknown]

And by the way, the NFL, one year into the tush push was like, we're looking into banning this. And it wasn't because of safety. It was because that's terrible tv. That's bad for our product. It's not exciting, it's ugly. And ultimately we're a TV show. And so I don't the. I don't know the answer, but I do know that continuing down this path is disastrous. So I would love it if baseball did something drastic, because then I think there is. The NBA would look at itself hopefully and be like, well, the NFL every year is like, hey, rule change. Figure it out. Hip drop tackle. I'd never heard that term. Three years ago last year, it was the most dangerous thing that's ever happened in the sport. This year, it's gone. Like, defenseless receiver, hit the quarterback low. Tom Brady, Tom Brady blows out his knee. They're like, massive rule change. You now no longer hit the quarterback low. Doesn't matter. Aaron Rodgers breaks his collarbone. They're like, hey, you can't fall on quarterbacks now either. Don't care if you don't like it. Baseball's making changes. The NBA is just like, can we interest you in a new All Star game format? It's like, bro, that's not the issue here. And here's one other NBA question I didn't. I forgot who first posed this, but ever since I read it, I'm like, oh, that's interesting. Is there a single NBA player under 30 that is more famous than Caitlin Clark?

[Justin Jefferson]

No, no, there's not. There's not.

[Unknown]

That's a problem.

[Justin Jefferson]

I'll tell you something that's fascinating. Here's something. I talk. I led my show with this today. And unfortunately, I'm sure you probably didn't have time for it. You used to listen religiously, but those days are over. But the point being.

[Unknown]

No, I. That's just not true.

[Justin Jefferson]

So I led with this today. Debo Samuel, Brock Purdy comes out and says, you know, I love Debo, and we'll get him the ball more. And I thought, oh, okay. So a year ago, nine months ago, running backs are dead in this league. The top five running teams now in the league are all playoff teams. The top six receivers, receiving yards. Six of the top 10 are on losing teams. And so it's. It's Devonte Adams, cryptic messages. Jamar Chase is noisy. It's Malik, neighbors. It's Debo Samuel. It's Deontay Johnson. It's George Pickens.

[Unknown]

So it's even A.J. brown, by the way, on a good team. Everything was fine. And then he's like, I'm pissed. It's not fine.

[Justin Jefferson]

I said, we gave receivers for about two years the keys to the kingdom. But they are sports cars. They don't work well in the winter. You can't really drive them seven days a week. And running backs, this is.

[Unknown]

You've.

[Justin Jefferson]

You've loved this take for and running backs, no, no, no. They're the suv. Year round grocery, soccer practice, date all weather actually. Always elevate the quarterback, always. Young quarterback, old quarterback. They're also great. They help you take leads and eat the clock and help you protect him. The receivers don't. They all block or they don't play. They're the grinders. They're the most running backs. Saquon Barkley. I want the ball more, but I'm sacrificing for the team. They never, you never hear a running back complaining. We're throwing it too much to the star receiver. And it's a classic example is that we gave. It's the NBA position of NFL wide receiver breaks the huddle first. He's on his own. We gave you the keys for like two years. We immediately had a wide receiver bubble Chiefs win without Tyreek Hill. You can argue they can spend money on defense. They're just a much better team now, more complete team. And in the end it goes back. Nine months ago we lamented the future of running backs. It is now in one season. Baltimore, Detroit, Green Bay, Washington. Here comes Isaiah Pacheco. The Rams, Kyron Williams. It is a running back quarterback league again in nine months.

[Unknown]

So, so that was. And I didn't see it coming this.

[Justin Jefferson]

Quickly, nor did I.

[Unknown]

But what I did wonder was I was like, okay, one of the things that happened to running backs was yes, the game changed, but the other it wasn't just that the game changed. It wasn't just your position isn't as valuable. It was there's too many B minuses. Meaning like there you could seemingly find a not great but a good running back anywhere. Practice squad, seventh round, undrafted free agent like, and the reason for that was very obvious, which is our whole lives, the best athlete at 7 years old, where'd they put him running back? Like if it wasn't the quarter, like, it was like, oh, you're the best player on the team. We're going to. If we're. If it you're either going to be a dual threat quarterback or the running back because we're going to hand you the ball a bunch. So in high school and college there were just too many good ones, which means seems like, okay, I could pay X for a great one or basically nothing for a good one. So I'll do that. And what I wondered aloud was, are we about to see in a few years the same thing happen to receivers because now if you're a great athlete as a kid, they're putting you at receiver it is 7 on 7 every damn year in the draft this year, there were 10 receivers taken in the first 40 picks. And then when we're like, hold on. The. Everybody thinks there are 25 top 10 receivers. Like, if you really put pencil to paper and it's like, okay, is he a top 10 receiver? Well, I don't know, man, because the. Garrett Wilson thinks he is. Devonte Adams thinks he is. Tyree Kill thinks he is. Jalen Waddle thinks he is. There's four just in the AFC East. And you keep going. Does Terry McLaurin is Nico Collins is Debo Samuel is. Brandon Ayuk is having Mine, Tyreek hill, Jamar Chase, A.J. brown, C.D. lamb, a monitor. Like, there's all of these. It's like, well, there's 30 million a person, but Brian Thomas Jr. Was the third, fourth receiver taken. So like, is there going to be the same type of correction where teams are like, no, I'm not paying 30 million for a receiver. There's six more great ones coming out in the draft. Like, I'm just not doing it right. So I saw that. I wondered if that was happening. I still think that's probably going to happen. The other thing that has happened this season is, and maybe I'm, Maybe this is just because I turned 40 and I instantly developed old man opinions. But Malik Neighbors being a diva receiver as a rookie. Infuriate.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah. No, it's too much.

[Unknown]

And like, in a way, it's too much, man. Say like, listen, I get that there's been a. We're allowed to be divas, so we kind of lean into it from the position. Got it. So be it. No problem. But TO and Ojo Cinco were not pains in the ass their first year in the league.

[Justin Jefferson]

They were just great.

[Unknown]

They weren't like, they were great. And then they, and they developed over.

[Justin Jefferson]

Three or four or five years.

[Unknown]

Yes. Once they had pelts on the wall. I see, I'm like, man, everywhere I look like George Pickens, an awesome player, huge pain in the ass from day one pick. Malik Neighbors. It took him eight games before he's like, why didn't I get the ball to her? Down 30 nothing. It's like, buddy, you're the best player on the team. I get it. But you. It's too early for this. It's too early. And so the, and then the AJ Brown thing really irritated me on a just a team level. It's like, man, there, there was nothing wrong. Everything. You guys are on a 10 game winning streak. You're. You Guys are undefeated. When you play, seemingly everything's all good. The only public narrative should be, man, Saquon Barkley's gonna break Eric Dickerson's record and our defense is better than you idiots thought it would be. And then privately, if you want to be like, God damn it, so be it. But it's. That was like A.J. brown, you. You're on your third contract.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

You just got paid again.

[Justin Jefferson]

You know what I think A.J. brown's issue is?

[Unknown]

What are we doing?

[Justin Jefferson]

Here's what his issue is. He was overshadowed by a star running back in Tennessee, Derrick Henry, and he's overshadowed again with a star running back. No great receiver has been.

[Unknown]

That's interesting.

[Justin Jefferson]

Overshadowed in his prime by the two best receivers over the last six years in the league. He's the guy.

[Unknown]

Oh, that's interesting. I didn't even think about that.

[Justin Jefferson]

So he keeps going to places, going timeout. I get a good quarterback, not a great one. Tannehill, Jalen, I'm the best player on the team. And both become run centric. What are you doing to my career?

[Unknown]

What are you. Right. But the. But the but here's the. Here's the thing about that but you keep getting paid any like you keep getting top of the market deals and.

[Justin Jefferson]

But money every time. You know, I'm not going to speak for anybody, but when people get raises, it's good for about three checks. And then you're like, I want the respect. Guys are driven much more by respect than they are money.

[Unknown]

I know that part. I totally agree with. I. The. And I agree with you the whenever like somebody loses a job or whatever and the reaction on Twitter is, ah, they're still getting paid or whatever. I disagree with that because the. For someone who has been AJ in this is going to sound like I'm contradicting myself, but I'll come around. He's been. He's not newly rich. He's been rich long enough that that's his normal. So the money doesn't really solve things. The point I'm making is I would understand it a little bit more if you were in a contract year. If it's like, yo, you're costing me money because. But the Eagles preemptively paid him this off season early. And one of the reasons I would think you do that is to stave this off. Like, hey, no matter how we have to run the team, you're going to know you've been taken care of. So even if this year your numbers are down, it's not costing you anything because we just paid you. So that's the reason I brought it up. Like, I do get why guys who are in contract years are like, yo.

[Justin Jefferson]

I mean, A.J. brown is being selfish because also the NFL record book. Nobody cares. It's not like baseball. It really isn't. Nobody cares about the NFL record. But we know Brady and Jerry Rice in Montana and Mahomes are all over it like, and Breeze. So like a wide receiver. Like, listen, we know you're great if you get paid and you win a ring. It kind of solves everything well.

[Unknown]

And that's. And also like, if there's anyone on the. Like, could you imagine and this is to your point, if after this last game, Saquon out of nowhere in the locker room was like, yeah, I mean listen, everything's great, but I'm really sick of Jalen sniping my touchdown. I should have 10 more. Like, how about we call a handoff at the one instead of the tush push? People would be like, you laugh because it's laughable to think of him doing it.

[Justin Jefferson]

But it's used to receivers being ridiculous.

[Unknown]

We're totally used to it. 100% used to it. Like the. Yeah, I mean, I don't, I can't. I can't even bad ones. Canarius Tony, this dope, he's bouncing. He just wants to. He barely got on the field in Cleveland fair, caught a punt and taunted a guy. It's like you just have it in your DNA. Like you just have. It's unbelievable. The flavor, the tradition and the spirit of carne asada lives on at Del Taco. Join the Asada today with Del Taco's new limited time half pound chipotle carne asada steak burrito packed with sweet, spicy and smoky flavor. Wrapped up and grilled to perfection, the whole carne Asada steak menu delivers the bold flavors you crave with epic burritos, loaded fries and street tacos. Starting at just 299 only at Del Taco.

[Doug Gottlieb]

Congratulations to CBS Sports and Sony Electronics for their first place wins for innovation in industry at this year's unconventional awards by T Mobile for Business. In a collaboration that was clearly built on breaking new ground, CBS and Sony created a first of its kind broadcast for the PGA Championship. Using a custom built T Mobile Private 5G network to power the live production, they deployed a 5G wireless camera system throughout the event. The network's speed, combined with Sony's innovative ultra low latency video codec allowed for seamless, high quality footage without disruption. With that innovative approach. CBS gave broadcasters the tools they need to do what they do best, take their coverage to entirely new places. These innovations will shape the way live sports are covered moving forward. And for that, T Mobile congratulates Sony and CBS for their unconventional thinking.

[LeVar Arrington]

Hey, this is Levar Arrington here from up on game. And listen, I want to talk to you about something very serious for a minute, all right? Something personal to me and right now something that should be personal to you as well. In our country, the hate is at an all time high and it's like we're going backward. The hate is winning. We can't allow that, all right? It's out of control. So many different people, so many different groups are facing too much hate. And it's enough. It's time for it to stop. We need to stop, regroup, change the momentum as a team, because that's what we are. Everyone in this country is on the same team. So let's act like it. And when a team can't get it together, what do you do? You call a timeout. And that's what we need to do. Call a time out against hate. Let's think about what we say and do. And when we see hate, when we see someone doing or saying those things we know are wrong and hateful, we need to call it out. Imma call it out. You need to do the same thing. Visit standuptoallhate.org to help and join me and calling for a timeout against hate by following at what's up with hate or posting the blue square emoji.

[Colin Cowherd]

Thursday night football is on and it's only on prime video makes the catch touchdown. This week the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers in a game with big playoff implications.

[Unknown]

This is unbelievable.

[Colin Cowherd]

Coverage begins with TNF tonight.

[Justin Jefferson]

Not a Prime member.

[Colin Cowherd]

Sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Broncos and choice Chargers Thursday only on Prime Video.

[Justin Jefferson]

Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.

[LeVar Arrington]

What's poppin Justin Jefferson here? Football is a lot of explosions, a lot of energy and attitude. It's a whole different vibe with these open earbuds. It's like you're in the moment, but also you can hear everything around you. You can be involved. To have good sound and to be so light on your ear means a lot to me, putting that music into my ears. You feel good enough to go out there and play, you turn on that switch, no one can stop you. For more, check out Bose.com.

[Unknown]

All right.

[Justin Jefferson]

Time for another edition. We Release this on Thursday night in the YouTube channel or Friday on the podcast Sharper Square. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites all of Our odds provided by DraftKings so last week a lot of favorites were in favor for me and didn't necessarily do well. I'm still surprised how the Rams played perhaps the most flawless half two game of offensive football by any team on the season. I was just watching some clips of it today and they did everything right. Nobody dropped a pass ball, never hit the turf, no holding. It was, it was a thing of art. And it's interesting because now this week you get the Bills getting two and a half at the Lions and I like the Bills here because they're getting Kincaid, the tight end is healthy, they're getting Coleman back. It was almost as if it was this sandwich game. Even though it's McVay and Stafford, Buffalo travels west. They know half the stadium is going to be theirs. They're looking at that Detroit game even though it's not an AFC or a divisional game and they had a couple of guys on the cusp that could play or not and they elected not and they got caught flat footed when the Rams played a flawless game. So I like Buffalo plus two and a half now Sharper Square well, the.

[Chad Millman]

Line has moved from one and a half Detroit to two and a half Detroit. And I will tell you that the majority of betting tickets have been coming in on the Buffalo Bills. So when you see a line move that goes in the direction of one side that is opposite of where the betting tickets are, that's a reverse line move and that tells you the professional betters are on the Lions and they've been on the Lions at one and a half and two at two and a half. You start to see the pressure point. You'll find an equal number who still like the Lions at two and a half and they take it up to three and you'll find the number of wise guys who are coming in at two and a half on the Bills and liking the Bills because they like Josh Allen. I will tell you I'm a, I'm a Lions backer in this game. I bet it at one and a half, I bet it at two. As healthy as the Bills are starting to get with players coming back, this may be the healthiest the Lions have been in eight weeks. They could get a lot of guys back on the defensive line that has just been decimated over the past three to four weeks. Also, the Lions haven't played on the road since Nov. 24 at the Colts. They haven't played, period for 10 days. You talk about the Bills, they just had a gauntlet, right? They had the Chiefs, they had the Niners. Those were massive games for them, getting over huge humps. They go on the road, have an intense, nearly perfect game that just isn't perfect enough against the Rams. Now they got to go on the road again against what might be the best team in the NFL, and they could face him in the Super Bowl. So, you know, you're not wrong by betting the Bills at two and a half, but if you said I like the Lions, you'd be on the sharp side too. It's. It's a pretty even split at this number. Just at this number.

[Justin Jefferson]

Okay. Steelers getting five and a half at the Eagles. And the reason I like this is because Pittsburgh's mostly been a pretty good team again against the run. If you look at what the Eagles have decided to do since the buy, it is throw the ball less. Green Bay is doing this too. They are a run first team, as they should be. Their best player is Saquon. Their second best player is AJ Brown. I think Pittsburgh can have some vulnerabilities against the pass, but I don't think Jalen hurts from the pocket. I mean, A.J. brown's not happy. He's only getting six and a half targets. Mike Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Four and a half points. These two don't play very often. It feels like a lot of points to a very good roster. Even if Pittsburgh lost, if Pickens plays, they have enough big play ability to back door cover the line. Seems out of whack. I'll take the Steelers. Sharp or square?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, it's sharp. And this is what we talked about on the Favorites podcast was why isn't this number three? Why isn't this number three and a half when the number is so out of whack? You either are being asked to do something that is too easy, which the books never do, or you feel like you're missing something. I don't know what we're missing here. Like you just mentioned, Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Tomlin is the best underdog coach in a generation. Let's put this in perspective. You win 53% of your bets, you're an incredible sports better, right? That's, that's what you're looking for. So when we talk about trends and we talk about analytics on certain opportunities and metrics embedding, if we can find a Trend that is 56% against the spread over an historically relevant period of time. You tend to want to play that if all the other factors are in your direction. Tomlin, he's 60 plus percent in just about every category. As an underdog, you say, all right, between three and seven, two key numbers. 67%, you say on the road as a dog, 64%. Like you can't name a category where he's not 60 plus percent. And then if you look at the matchup too, you mentioned Saquon, right? The Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is running the ball at a higher percentage than they're passing the ball. And I would not think, oh my God, Jalen Hurts and A.J. brown, there's, you know, strife and now they're getting along again. Doesn't mean that Kellen Moore is going to change this offense and all of a sudden try to make it so AJ Brown is getting more and more touches. This is who they are. Jalen Hurts has thrown the fewest passes in the NFL this year. So I would expect a low scoring game. Wise guys are expecting a low scoring game that plays to the advantage of the team that is more than a field goal underdog. So yeah, that's the sharp side.

[Justin Jefferson]

I Like the Broncos -4, both teams off a buy. I think Denver's got a really good defense now again, Jameis Winston, I think you can beat it down the field. That's not really what the Colts do. I think there are ways to score on virtually every team in this league. And I think Cleveland is one of those weird bad teams that can be highly productive throwing the ball down the field. But it should be noted in that game, Denver eventually got pick sixes and turned the game around. With their defense is. I think Anthony Richardson is struggling with Shane Steichen. Look what Shane Steichen did with Gardner Minshew. Okay? Shane Steichen as a rookie with Justin Herbert set records made. Jalen Hurts an MVP level player and he's pretty average from the pocket. That passing game is limited and I think it's limited because Anthony Richardson may not be a pro starting quarterback. I get an experienced coach, an excellent defense at home against the dome team. You know, I love the number four. It's probably square, but I like Denver here. I give me Sean Payton, Shanahan, McVeigh Reed, extra time, sharper, square.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, you know the answer. It's totally square. Wise guys love the Colts here. It's been bet down. It was at four and a half. It's at four. It'll probably go down to three and a half if you want to bet the Colts get it now because it's only going to go in their direction. You're right about the Broncos coming off a buy and there is a lot of public sentiment on the Broncos right now. The last time anyone saw them, they were winning in dramatic fashion against the Browns, right? They were getting two pick sixes. They were covering with a miracle and interception in the end zone. The Broncos are covering by five points per game. Historically, teams that are covering by five points per game over the course of the season, once we get past week five, only covered about a 44% clip against the spread. So there's one trend to help the cause of the Colts. But also, I don't know that wise guys agree with you about Anthony Richardson. I think there's a little bit of Bryce Young sort of in the way he's come back from being benched since he's come back 8th rated passer according to Pro Football Focus, 4th in big plays according to Pro Football Focus, Big play throws according to Pro Football Focus. So it's not as bad as you would think. And I do think there's something key here. Remember what happened with the Browns against the Broncos on that in that prime time game, they didn't have Riley Moss, a cornerback. They had William Vance. William Vance, he might have still, he might still be giving up touchdowns to Jerry Judy as we speak, like he was getting torched in that game. Riley Moss is the only guy who didn't practice this week for the Broncos. So if he's not playing, I think that's a severely diminished defense and it impacts what they can do all across the board. So there's trend reasons, there's inflation reasons, the line is just too high, the wise guys think. And there's some matchup reasons.

[Justin Jefferson]

Packers Seahawks is a really interesting game. Packers, like the Eagles, have taken passing attempts away from Jordan Love in the last month. They're now a power run team that makes far fewer mistakes. But Green Bay is like a younger version of Philadelphia. They have just decided we're a power run team. We do have weapons over the top, but we're not going to let our quarterback throw more than like 22 to 24 times. And we're going to reduce the errors. And when Green Bay does reduce the errors, they're a really, really good football team. I like Seattle. I still don't think they're an elite team. I think they're, I think they're a playoff team. Maybe in a. Okay Division. I think Green Bay is absolutely a playoff team in an excellent division. I like green bay minus two and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Sharper, square, 100% sharp at two and a half. If it gets to three it's a pass and if it gets to three, you know, the wise guys will probably want to bet on Seattle, but at two and a half, it's 100% the packers for the reasons you just stated. And the most important thing, it's like playing SEC in the Mac, right? The packers are losing really close games and winning really close games in the best division of football. They are battle tested every single week. The Seahawks, they're winning a fluky game against the Cardinals a few weeks ago. Then they're getting the Cardinals in a classic Kyler Murray game last week and they won a miraculous game against the jets which they should have lost, but they got Leonard Williams running a pick six back for, you know, 90 something yards. So they're a much better team since Dubai and credit to their coaching staff and everything they've done and they've improved their defense significantly and their offense. By the way, you know Zach Charbonnet and what he did last week was a great match for how they want to build their running scheme. But the wise guys like the packers here, it's just, it's, it's a better team. And by the way, Matt LaFleur is a wizard when it comes to covering the spread. It's very possible in 15 years of Matt LaFleur is still coaching the Packers. He's got Mike Tomlin like stats as a favorite and as an underdog covering the spread.

[Justin Jefferson]

Okay. A game I want you to tell me where to go is Bears plus six and a half at the Vikings. So Minnesota is a really good team but that game with Atlanta was tied going into the fourth quarter. I've seen them against teams like The Jags go 0 for 5 in the red zone. It's a good team with a quarterback having a great year. But six and a half is a lot. It's a divisional game and the Bears before that disaster in the Bay Area, which was probably easier to predict than I would have admitted. I do think they'll get back on track. I do think they have a very good roster. This is again seems out of whack. Six and a half. I mean I think it's, I honestly see it as a go either way game in the fourth quarter probably take the better coaching staff. But sharper square Bears plus the points.

[Chad Millman]

So the Bear, it's, it's the sharp Ish play only because. And we talk about this all the time on the show, you want to get the best of the number. 24 hours ago this game was seven and a half and then it went down to seven and now it's down to six and a half. That alone tells you, Colin, that you're on the sharp side. If you're betting the Bears, the number has been moving in their direction, the line is way too inflated and you're getting a very buy low on the Bears. Sell high on the Vikings spot. The Bears were a train wreck. They couldn't have looked any worse. They were out of it against the niners in the first half, right? They had four total yards and they had five punts and the Niners had 319 yards whereas the Vikings, you're right, that game was tied and they really blew it over open in the fourth quarter because of a couple bad plays and turnovers on the part of the Falcons. Not because of anything magical that the Vikings did to run away with it. Even though Sam Darnold had an incredible game. But they have had their hiccups. Brian Flores defense has not been as good in the second half of the year as it was in the first half of the year. So yes, you're on the sharp side, but it's a caution. Know that if you're playing this number you've given away some value.

[Justin Jefferson]

So I think the Titans getting four and a half with the Bengals. My prediction is that's the ugly game. I ask you every week for a game that I've missed. My guess is the Titans a pretty good defensive team at home playing with pride against the Cincinnati team. You can just move the ball. I mean if not for a gaffe by the Cowboys special teams, we're going to overtime against a very mediocre Dallas team with Cooper Rush. Is Tennessee plus four and a half the side here. Is that the game I'm missing?

[Chad Millman]

Well, certainly it's a side like it was at 5 and it's come down. So that tells you the wise guys are betting on the Titans because certainly the public isn't going to be betting on the Titans. It's a really tricky game. I haven't touched this game 100%. The value is on the Titans. It's not the game I was going to talk to you about but the challenge here you've basically got a one dimensional Bengals team, right? All they can really do is throw the ball to Higgins and Chase. Joe Burrow, Higgins, Joe Burrows, Chase. That's their game plan. They can't really run the ball. They don't have a screen game. They don't really have play action to speak of all of those things that could slow down a better than average defense in the Titans, and they have no defense to speak of. The problem is Will Levis. He's not any better than Cooper Rush, right? He's got a better arm, maybe he can fling it downfield further. But he couldn't even beat up on the Jaguars at home last week despite so many opportunities. So you're kind of banking on the fact you're hoping that when there's an opening Will Levis can convert, you're going to take the Titans because if you're a better, that's what you do. You bet. You bet the number. But know that you're. You're playing with fire here because you're not just betting the number, you're betting Will Levis.

[Justin Jefferson]

All right, tell me the game I missed.

[Chad Millman]

You didn't talk about Cleveland and Kansas City. This number has dropped from six and a half to four and a half.

[Justin Jefferson]

So the Browns are the side.

[Chad Millman]

The Browns have been the side. The Browns are the side until it gets to about three and a half. And this one, you know, in the betting community, it's. There's two things that are sort of scary right now. It's the frequency and regularity with which you can count on fading Patrick Mahomes when he's a favorite of more than 3, and the frequency and regularity with which you can count on betting Mike Tomlin as an underdog. I said percentage wise, if Something is happening six out of 10 times, which is basically what, what, what is happening with both of those categories, Tomlin is a dog. Mahomes is a favorite of more than three. It means that four times those bets are going to lose this year. They haven't been losing at all. And so wise guys know in this spot, the spot is to play Cleveland, but it's a little bit scarier because you keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. A lot of guys, including myself, thought it would happen last week against the Chargers. No J.K. dobbins, no lad McConkey. And it looked like it was going to. And then again, the Chiefs kind of fell apart because they have no protection in the offensive line. So the Browns pressure the ball, pressure the quarterback more than the Chargers and are better at it. And meanwhile, the Chiefs now they're signing guys off the street to play in the defensive backfield. And if you want to talk about a quarterback who could have A good time slinging it against a wonky defensive backfield. Let's talk about Jameis now. Are you potentially going to suffer a pick six that can ruin it for you?

[Justin Jefferson]

Sure.

[Chad Millman]

But the wise guys are willing to literally make that bet. So they're playing Cleveland.

[Justin Jefferson]

You know, I know the game's a couple of weeks away, but I think it's really interesting. The Ohio State hosting Tennessee first round playoff game, to me is one of the more fascinating games ever. So you take a warm weather team from Knoxville and everybody's having to wait for the playoff to start. That means the weather's getting uglier. My wife was in Chicago today and she's like, it is cold. Yeah. So you take a warm weather SEC team up to a superior roster. I believe in Ohio State, you get an Ohio State team that's got a little insecurity and lack of identity off a historically bad loss. So they'll play with incredible intensity and focus. You know, Ohio State really is coming with their hair on fire.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Justin Jefferson]

And now Ohio State's O line is the weak unit on their roster. And the D line for the Volunteers is the strength of their roster. The weather could play a factor. Ohio State's greatest asset is their vertical nature. On the perimeter. It could be 38 degrees and windy. I looked at the forecast now it's 14 days out or 12 days or 10 days. I looked at it about four days ago and I'm like, oh, it's going to be 41 degrees and wet. How does the betting community, or have they looked at that game?

[Chad Millman]

Well, right now the number is seven and a half. Like, people have been talking about it. I think there's a lot of circumstances still to go. I'm looking in the app right now. Not a ton of action on the game at this point. And like, this is so early. You can't really take anything of it. Majority of money and tickets are on Tennessee. I also think a weak spot for the. For Ohio State is their quarterback. Like, he's not sort of an elite passer who can take advantage of the talent. They have, the elite talent, you know, top round, first round draft pick talent they have at Ohio State. You, you and I have talked about Ohio State a lot and Ryan Day. The AD came out today and said he supports Ryan Day. He wants Ryan Day to be back as the head coach. Like, I think there's so much tension inside that community right now about not just beating Tennessee, but the having to advance, that his teams have shown up and played tight in big games. They play tight. So if you're seeing the early numbers come in on Tennessee, I think it's partly a fade of Ryan Day's ability to have his team play loose and take full advantage of the talent that they have on their roster.

[Justin Jefferson]

The volume.

[Unknown]

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[Unknown]

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[Justin Jefferson]

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[Doug Gottlieb]

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