Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rams Bury The Niners, Belichick One And Done? Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 15!

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rams Bury The Niners, Belichick One And Done? Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 15!"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
• Episode: Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rams Bury The Niners, Belichick One And Done? Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 15!
• Release Date: December 13, 2024

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1. Rams vs. 49ers Game Analysis ([00:00 - 02:19])

Colin Cowherd opens the episode reflecting on a heart-wrenching personal experience with hate, emphasizing the need for unity. However, transitioning into the sports discussion, he delves into the Los Angeles Rams' strategic victory over the San Francisco 49ers with a final score of 12-6.

• Key Points:
  • Flawless Performance: Cowherd praises the Rams for executing a near-perfect game plan, avoiding turnovers and penalties.
    • "The Rams just played a flawless football game against Buffalo." [00:52]
  • Stafford’s Resilience: Matt Stafford's ability to lead crucial drives in the second half despite a rough start is highlighted.
    • "Stafford in the second half after a shaky first, really made all the big throws." [01:45]
  • 49ers’ Struggles: Brock Purdy's inconsistencies and the impact of injured key players like Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are critiqued.
    • "In 13 starts this year, 15 touchdowns, nine picks, and you want to pay him $55 million - he is a guy." [01:25]

2. Bill Belichick’s Potential Move to College Football ([02:19 - 05:00])

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the legendary coach Bill Belichick contemplating a shift to college football, specifically at the University of North Carolina (UNC).

• Key Points:
  • Contract Details: Belichick’s contract includes a buyout clause of $1 million, allowing him to leave after June 1.
    • "Belichick's deal has a buyout of only $1 million and he can leave after June 1 this year." [03:10]
  • Short-Term Tenure Speculation: Cowherd speculates that Belichick might only stay for a year before returning to the NFL, possibly handing over responsibilities to his son.
    • "My prediction, he'll leave after one year and bolt his contract." [04:00]
  • Challenges in Collegiate Transition: The clash between Belichick’s professional approach and the collegiate environment is discussed, highlighting potential friction with university administrators.
    • "He's bringing in Mike Lombardi to be like his GM. They're going to use a pro model." [04:35]

Chad Millman adds depth to the conversation by referencing Seth Wickersham's ESPN article, emphasizing Belichick’s influence and the potential reshaping of UNC’s football program.

• "Belichick is going to run it like it's a professional organization, which is what's driving a lot of the college coaches out." [04:50]

3. Betting NFL Week 15: Sharp Or Square ([05:00 - 37:35])

In the segment titled "Sharper Square," Colin Cowherd and Chad Millman provide in-depth betting analysis for NFL Week 15, offering picks and strategic insights for various matchups.

a. Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions ([12:00 - 14:30])

• Cowherd’s Pick: Buffalo Bills +2.5
  • "I like Buffalo plus two and a half now." [12:10]
• Rationale: Improved health of key players like Josh Allen and strategic gameplay against the Lions.
• Millman’s Insight: Observes a reverse line move indicating professional bettors backing the Lions despite public favoring the Bills.
  • "Reverse line move... professionals are on the Lions." [13:00]

b. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles ([14:30 - 18:44])

• Cowherd’s Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
  • "I'll take the Steelers. Sharp or square?" [25:10]
• Rationale: Strong defensive capabilities and effective coaching by Mike Tomlin.
• Millman’s Support: Reiterates the reliability of Tomlin’s underdog teams in covering the spread.
  • "Tomlin is 60 plus percent in just about every category." [26:09]

c. Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts ([18:44 - 21:34])

• Cowherd’s Pick: Denver Broncos -4
  • "I like Denver here. Sharper, square." [28:07]
• Rationale: Denver’s robust defense and home-field advantage outweigh Indianapolis’ offensive struggles.
• Millman’s Perspective: Considers the bet as balanced, noting potential weaknesses on both sides.
  • "It is square. The line is just too high." [29:26]

d. Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks ([21:34 - 28:07])

• Cowherd’s Pick: Green Bay Packers -2.5
  • "I like green bay minus two and a half." [31:31]
• Rationale: Packers’ strong run game and Matt LaFleur’s strategic coaching.
• Millman’s Agreement: Highlights Packers’ ability to handle high-pressure games and effective spread coverage.
  • "It's sharp; the Packers are better." [32:17]

e. Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings ([28:07 - 34:28])

• Cowherd’s Pick: Chicago Bears +6.5
  • "I see it as a go either way game... Shaper square Bears plus the points." [33:44]
• Rationale: Bears’ potential to rebound despite recent poor performance and Vikings’ inconsistency.
• Millman’s Warning: Advises caution due to inflated betting lines.
  • "It's a caution. Know that you're giving away some value." [34:28]

f. Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals ([34:28 - 37:35])

• Cowherd’s Pick: Tennessee Titans +4.5
  • "Titans plus four and a half. The side here." [35:43]
• Rationale: Titans’ strong defense and Bengals’ limited offensive options.
• Millman’s Analysis: Points out the complexity of the game but notes professional bettors' favoring of the Titans.
  • "The wise guys are betting on the Titans." [36:15]

4. UFO Sightings Discussion ([37:35 - 62:27])

Towards the latter part of the podcast, Cowherd and Millman veer off the NFL topic to discuss recent UFO sightings in New Jersey.

• Cowherd’s Skepticism:

  • Believes sightings might be government experiments using super drones.
    • "I think these are super drones that we're experimenting with, our government is experimenting with." [53:19]

• Millman’s Belief in Alien Life:

  • Firmly believes in the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life, suggesting they could coexist peacefully.
    • "There is alien life and there is intelligent life that is working at a higher capacity than humans." [55:02]

• Discussion Highlights:

  • Differing perspectives on whether UFO sightings are natural phenomena or manifestations of advanced technology.
  • Speculation on the government’s role in either concealing or experimenting with such phenomena.

5. Closing Remarks ([62:27 - End])

The episode wraps up with brief mentions of sponsors and advertisements, which are skipped in this summary per user instructions. Cowherd and Millman exchange light-hearted banter about their theories and plans to continue future discussions.

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Notable Quotes:

• "I like Buffalo plus two and a half now." – Colin Cowherd [12:10]
• "Tomlin is 60 plus percent in just about every category." – Chad Millman [26:09]
• "I think they're super drones that we're experimenting with, our government is experimenting with." – Colin Cowherd [59:05]
• "There is alien life and there is intelligent life that is working at a higher capacity than humans." – Chad Millman [55:02]

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Key Insights and Conclusions:

• Rams’ Strategic Edge: The Rams demonstrated superior strategy and execution, underscoring Matt Stafford’s leadership and the importance of a cohesive offensive line.

• Belichick’s Future: While Bill Belichick’s move to collegiate coaching is intriguing, both hosts remain skeptical about its long-term viability, predicting a short-term stint before a potential NFL return.

• Betting Strategy: The detailed analysis provided offers listeners nuanced betting insights, emphasizing the importance of understanding professional betting trends and reverse line moves.

• UFO Phenomena: The brief detour into UFO discussions highlights the hosts' willingness to explore a diverse range of topics, reflecting broader societal curiosities beyond sports.

This episode serves as a comprehensive guide for NFL enthusiasts and bettors alike, blending game analysis with strategic betting advice while showcasing the hosts' versatility in handling varied topics.

Transcript

[Colin Cowherd]

Hey, what's up guys? It's Levar Arrington here from up on Game. Wanted to talk to you about a serious issue. Hate. You know, something personal that I have experienced and witnessed and watched is how the hate in our country is getting so out of control. It's at an all time high and people are facing way too much hate. A lot of people don't think it's a problem, but I do. I can recall growing up being in high school. One of my high school teammates, good dude too, just happened to wear a shirt that was a derogatory shirt towards my racial group. It depicted Malcolm X moments after he was assassinated and it just made me feel really, really sad. It made me feel upset and so many other emotions. And it's really because we're supposed to be a team but it's going to take all of us to stop that sort of hate. As I mentioned, we are a team in this country. So let's take a break from hate so our team can regroup and regain our momentum. We need to take a time out Against Hate. Visit standuptoallhate.org to help and join me in calling for a time out against hate by following at what's up with Hate or posting the blue square emoji. Welcome to Duncan with Amex Gold. You can get up to $84 back annually at Duncan locations. So your morning pick me up Can I have a medium iced coffee with one tastes even better. That's the powerful backing of American Express enrollment. Required terms apply. Learn [e-mail] with AmEx, you can count on T Mobile to help keep you connected from big cities to small towns on America's largest 5G network. Switch the T Mobile, keep your phone and they'll pay it off up to 800 bucks per line via prepaid card. Learn more@t mobile.com KeepAndSwitch up to four lines via virtual prepaid card. Allow 15 days qualifying unlocked device credit service port in 90 plus days with device and eligible carrier and timely redemption. Required card has no cash access and expires in six months. Hi everyone. It's Savannah Guthrie and Hoda Cotton from the Today show. Nobody does the holidays like today.

[Chad Millman]

From festive performances and great gift ideas to tips for the perfect holiday feast.

[Colin Cowherd]

Join us every morning on NBC and make TODAY your home for the holidays. Where'd you get those shoes? Easy. They're from dsw. Because DSW has the exact right shoes for whatever you're into right now. You know, like the sneakers that make office hours feel like happy hour. The boots that turn grocery aisles into runways and all the styles that show off the many sides of you, from daydreamer to multitasker and everything in between. Because you do it all in really great shoes. Find a shoe for every you at your dsw store or dsw.com the volume let's talk about something really, really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan. It's America's largest injury law firm and they are there for you. Over 100 offices nationwide. Think about that. More than a thousand lawyers with over 20 billion. That's a B. $20 billion recovered for over 500,000 clients. Things happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan and Morgan is really, really easy. 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I said there's too many injuries, weather is shaky and the Rams just played a flawless football game against Buffalo. Then you got to get on a plane Wednesday, fly to your rival division game. Like I didn't know what I just, I knew the Rams were going to be off. You cannot play a game against a team like Buffalo, a high stakes game and be flawless even with men. This isn't college, but to go on the road against your rival. Greenlaw's back Bosa played. So they won and you have to be healthy. But they won and you have to be happy. But here's the thing. So all these wide receivers do you know, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase and Deebo Samuel's record this year, 17 and 23 top five rushing teams are all right now in the playoffs. You got to be careful with diva wide receivers. Deebo wants the ball. Oh, Deebo can't catch the ball tonight on an underneath route where he had a chance to peel off a huge play, potentially a touchdown, and they settled for a field goal. You could clearly see the Niners trying to appease Debo and get him the ball and force it. I like him better as a running back, a receiver anyway. I think his yards after the catch and his running ability is much greater than his separation ability. I think he's become sort of a banged up poor man's Anquan Bolden that doesn't separate. But he's physically tough and a nice player. But this is so you have young Brock Purdy doesn't want to lose Debo. Iuk's already out for the year. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey hurt. So Debo picks the worst time to be high maintenance because, you know, Purdy's young, he doesn't have iuk. You know, Kittle is tremendous, but a lot of teams now are taking him out and spending a lot of coverage on him. So they forced the Debo and this is what you get. Biggest game of the year for the Niners, 197 total yards. You know, Brock Purdy in 13 starts. Everybody talks about him getting paid big money. It's a big mistake. I don't buy it. I never have. Doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, doesn't have Trent Williams in 13 starts this year, 15 touchdowns, nine picks, and you want to pay him $55 million the minute you take away his best players. He is a guy. He didn't get passed by everybody in this draft. You know, during Tom Brady's run, there were more sleepers. You find occasional sleepers. But scouting departments now are much more sophisticated. You know, in Brady's era, you didn' have all the YouTube stuff. You didn't have the ability to see some of these college games. They're all on television now. It's just really hard to hide people. Staffs are bigger. Scouting departments are bigger. There's just more sophistication. You know, Brock Purdy dropped to the seventh round. He's small. He doesn't have a big arm. He's athletic, but not special. Hands are a bit small. You know, and you're watching a guy that when you, when you lose people, what do you get? And conversely, tonight, Matt Stafford, very, very rough first half. I mean, it was like the niners defense had the Rams playbook. They knew where he was. He was just trying to beg him to throw an interception. And yet he showed exactly why he's a real franchise player on those big drives. Late third, early fourth quarter, using his feet two or three times, ducking out of stuff. Really big third down throw. I wrote this. A big third down throw to Colby Parkinson late. Whereas Purdy previously in the fourth quarter had a really, really ugly end zone pick. You saw the real separation here. Rams short week off, a highly emotional game on the road. Division rival. Neither team has their fastball. Stafford in the second half after a shaky first, really made all the big throws. And because the coaches are both great, the offensive lines are good, not great. And that's the separation between the two. Yeah, I'm looking at this. Two big drives. Stafford in the second half. That's the ball game. And you know, people. People think I'm anti Purdy. No. But somebody's got to pop the balloon on this nonsense. I think Purdy is a less athletic Dak now. Dakota, after his second surgery here, is going to be even less athletic. He lost mobility after his first surgery. He'll be less athletic. You're seeing what it's doing to Aaron Rodgers. You're seeing what it's doing to Kirk Cousins. He's younger, but he won't be the same. And this is what holds the Cowboys back. They're paying a B quarterback A plus money. If you pay Purdy A minus money, he's a B quarterback. You just don't want to get into that space. Pittsburgh will probably play Russell Wilson. They're going to pay him B quarterback money. Darnold could be franchise tag for 40 million, 41 million. But that's B quarterback money. And I've said this. I wrote the Niners obituary three or four weeks ago. I don't think this is a tweak. I don't think it's a tweak. I think both IUK and Debo are now pretty verbal. Neither seems terribly happy. K's terrific, but he's a tight end. He is aging. Trent Williams doesn't have much left on the tires. So I think they have to rebuild both offensive lines. And conversely, the Rams are really well coached. I said outside of the Lions, I'm not sure there's a team in the league that has a better offensive head coach, quarterback, star, running back and two elite receivers. And they're doing it without Tyler Higsby, their top tight end, who is coming back soon. So as the Rams offensive line has gotten healthier over the last month. Stafford's been exceptional. You noticed it tonight. He had better protection. Now they're getting their tight end back to go along with Colby Parkinson and David Allen. So all of a sudden now the Rams are healthy down the stretch and I think they can play with anybody. Now their defense, they're a little like the Packers. They feel like they're a tad young. The packers are young on offense, the Rams feel a little young on defense and they still need a number one corner in the draft. But this is a real Rams team and I think they solidified their playoffs tonight. It's a quarterback coach league and nothing against Shanahan, but he's got Purdy and Stafford and McVeigh are another level. So congratulations. So I want to add this because this came down tonight. So Chad Milman and I talked some Belichick, but I didn't have this information. So I made the prediction today on FS1. I said my take is Bill Belichick, easy schedule. Carolina is going to win eight or nine games and maybe get to the playoff, but get to a big bowl. But I don't necessarily think he'll coach in that bowl. I think Belichick is going to get irritated. His coaching and his structure and the personnel with Mike Lombardi will be fine. I don't think those guys are long term fits at the college level. They've got a very Charlie Weiss feel, but even more blunt. And Belichick's got so much power and because Lombardi's his friend, Lombardi's got power. I think they'll. It could be pretty rough. They're pretty terse, blunt, you know, outspoken guys, both very, very talented. I know Mike Lombardi is very talented guy and I wish them both well. But it comes out tonight. Belichick's deal has a buyout of only $1 million and he can leave after June 1 this year. Now he's not going to. Duh. Nobody hires a coach after June 1, obviously. But I said today I think he's going to coach one year and go back and get an offer in the NFL and then I think he's going to hand it over to his son. So there's some things that will come out in the contract. And I do think Bill wanted the Bears job. They're not interested. I think he's really interested in the Jacksonville job. They're not interested. Mike Vrabel, by the way, and I talked to Mike brable for about 15 minutes this morning and I'm not going to Give out a lot of details of that. But, you know, one of the things I told Mike, I said you're now the number one candidate. I'm just not sure there are any jobs worthy of your coaching ability. I think next year is a much more interesting year. If you look at Zach Taylor, Cincinnati, I think he'll retain his job. I'm not sure if he'll retain it. If the Bengals have another season like this, keep your eye on that. I think Mike McCarthy will keep his job potentially, and so will Brian D. But both the Giants with a Shadur Sanders at quarterback and the Cowboys could have openings. I think the openings this year, too many impulsive, odd ownership, executive areas. Jets, Bears, Jacksonville. But Belichick, I'll say it again, I said it on the air today. I think he'll stay one year and bolt his contract. He could bolt after June 1st this year he's not going to. But my prediction, he'll leave after one year. And Bill Parcells twice did. Broadcasting bolted, told people, I'm going to stay bolted. Bill's a coach. Sean Payton stayed for a year, loved it. I mean, Sean really loved working as an analyst. He left Bill Belichick's coach and I, and I do think he'll. I mean, I saw and talked at length today about the schedule at North Carolina. The ACC is so bad. I mean, it's. He gets Clemson at home, there's not another game that he can't win. Syracuse on the road could be a little dicey, but so it's just interesting, in order for that to be in the contract, Bill Belichick demanded that it was in the contract because, as I told you, Jimmy Sexton, the top agent in college football, he's not sending his top clients there. And Belichick's not represented by Jimmy Sexton. So this is not a very highly coveted job because the push and pull between kind of academics and football, the chancellor, I think it's always been a little bit of a sleeping giant, but it's had some good years with Mack Brown the first time and Mac Brown the second time. But to get that in the contract, you wanted it in the contract and demanded it be in the contract. Okay. I've never seen a contract stipulation like that that he could leave basically after June 1st. And again, he's not leaving this year. That's never what I said. But I do. My prediction, he will leave after one year. He would deny that, obviously. But college football is, I mean, you're seeing on a weekly basis guys that love College football. Young coaches. Talk about how frustrating the portal, the lack of regulations and the nil is. I still contend the nil should have about an $18 billion salary cap. NFL's got one. Otherwise, you're going to get a separation of Texas band 40 million and spending three. I just. It will be. It will be. You know, even the disparity between the top and the bottom will be even greater than it is now. And it's pretty great now. So that's the latest. Congrats to the Rams gutty win, Stafford and McVeigh. That's why you pay him the big bucks. Belichick's deal. That is a very interesting clause, one that he wanted or he wouldn't have fought for it and one that North Carolina agreed with. North Carolina is telling you, hey, just bringing you on campus, getting the publicity, elevating our nil from 4 million to 18 to 20 million. Adding a professional structure to our program. Hey, we appreciate it. We need that. The world's changing and we're not ready for it. And if you're willing, in one year, give us at least one full year. And I, and I think, even though that's in the contract, I think it's understood Bill wouldn't bolt. June 2. Nobody's hiring coaches then. All right, Chad Millman, here we go. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in on all the basketball, football, hockey action at DraftKings sportsbook. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted. College football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey, almost 24, seven. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day. So many opportunities to place your first bet. Now, if you're going to bet for the first time, just make it simple. Pick a team. 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[Chad Millman]

That's right, nobody does the holidays quite like today all season long. Join us for special performances with the.

[Colin Cowherd]

Brightest, plus festive recipes to whip up the perfect holiday feast and great deals on the hottest toys and gifts for everyone on your list. So join us every morning on NBC to make today your home for the holidays. Congratulations to Easter Seals Southern California on their first place win for Innovation in Customer Service at this year's Unconventional Awards by T Mobile. For business, Easterseals has used T Mobile 5G to create immersive VR development tools that aid people with autism in addressing transportation barriers. These tools are shaping the way safe and personalized skill building is delivered, and for that, T Mobile congratulates easterseals Southern California for their unconventional thinking. For many of us, the holiday season means more travel, more shopping, more time online and more of your personal information in more places you can't control. It only takes one innocent mistake, even if it's not your mistake, to expose you to identity theft. Not to worry, LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points every second and alerts you to threats you could miss by yourself. Even if you keep an eye on your bank and credit card statements, if your identity is stolen, your own US based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed. The last thing you want to do this holiday season is face drained accounts, fraudulent loans or other financial losses from identity theft all alone. Gift yourself the peace of mind that comes with LifeLock and spend more time doing more of the holiday things you love. Visit lifelock.com iheartradio and save up to 40% your first year. That's 40% [e-mail] iheart LifeLock for the threats you can't control. This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Now here's the kicker. The PayPal debit card earns you 5% cash back in a monthly category of your Choice. Up to $1,000 of monthly purchases. So groceries, health and beauty, gas, apparel restaurants. On top of that, you can get cash back offers within the app from brands like Doordash, Instacart, Sephora. This month, it's all about that apparel. I got a crazy schedule. I shop online a lot, snag a suit here or there, fresh gear. 5% cash back adds up fast and signing up is easy. Just Download the new PayPal app to sign up and you're ready to start earning cash back on your everyday purchases. Pay smart. Earn cash back. Enjoy peace of mind with a PayPal debit card. Don't just pay PayPal terms and limits apply.

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[Chad Millman]

MasterCard is accepted.

[Colin Cowherd]

All right, time for another edition. We release this on Thursday night in the YouTube channel or Friday on the podcast Sharper Square. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites all of our odds provided by DraftKings so last week a lot of favorite were in favor for me and didn't necessarily do well. I'm still surprised how the Rams played perhaps the most flawless half two game of offensive football by any team on the season. I was just watching some clips of it today and they did everything right. Nobody dropped a pass ball, never hit the turf, no holding it was. It was a thing of art. And it's interesting because now this week you get the Bills getting two and a half at the Lions and I like the Bills here because they're getting Kincaid, the tight end is healthy, they're getting Coleman back. It was almost as if it was this sandwich game. Even though it's McVay and Stafford, Buffalo travels west. They know half the stadium is going to be theirs. They're looking at that Detroit game even though it's not an AFC or a divisional game and they had a couple of guys on the cusp that could play or not and they elected not and they got caught flat footed when the Rams played a flawless game. So I like Buffalo plus two and a half now Sharper Square well the.

[Chad Millman]

Line has moved from one and a half Detroit to two and a half Detroit and I will tell you that the majority of betting tickets have been coming in on the Buffalo Bills. So when you see a line move that goes in the direction of one side, that is opposite of where the betting tickets are, that's a reverse line move. And that tells you the professional betters are on the Lions. And they've been on the Lions at one and a half and two. At two and a half, you start to see the pressure point. You'll find an equal number who still like the Lions at two and a half and they've taken up to three. And you'll find the number of wise guys who are coming in at two and a half on the Bills and liking the Bills because they like Josh Allen. I will tell you, I'm a. I'm a Lions backer in this game. I bet it at one and a half. I bettered at two. As healthy as the Bills are starting to get, with players coming back, this may be the healthiest the Lions have been in eight weeks. They could get a lot of guys back on the defensive line that has just been decimated over the past three to four weeks. Also, the Lions haven't played on the road since November 24th at the Colts. They haven't played period for 10 days. You talk about the Bills, they just had a gauntlet, right? They had the Chiefs, they had the Niners. Those were massive games for them, getting over huge humps. They go on the road, have an intense, nearly perfect game that just isn't perfect enough against the Rams. Now they got to go on the road again against what might be the best team in the NFL and they could face him in the Super Bowl. So, you know, you're not wrong by betting the Bills at two and a half. But if you said I like the Lions, you'd be on the sharp side, too. It's a pretty even split at this number. Just at this number.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay. Steelers getting five and a half at the Eagles. And the reason I like this is because Pittsburgh's mostly been a pretty good team against the run. If you look at what the Eagles have decided to do since the buy, it is throw the ball less. Green Bay is doing this too. They are a run first team as they should be. Their best player is Saquon. Their second best player is AJ Brown. I think Pittsburgh can have some vulnerabilities against the pass, but I don't think Jalen hurts from the pocket. I mean, A.J. brown's not happy. He's only getting six and a half targets. Mike Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Four and a half points. These two don't play very often. It feels like a lot of points to a very good roster. Even if Pittsburgh lost, if Pickens plays, they have enough big play ability to back door cover the line. Seems out of whack. I'll take the Steelers. Sharp or square?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, it's sharp. And this is what we talked about on the Favorites podcast was why isn't this number three? Why isn't this number three and a half when the number is so out of whack? You either are being asked to do something that is too easy, which the books never do, or you feel like you're missing something. I don't know what we're missing here. Like you just mentioned, Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Tomlin is the best underdog coach in a generation. Let's put this in perspective. You win 53% of your bets. You're an incredible sports better, right? That's, that's what you're looking for. So when we talk about trends and we talk about analytics on certain opportunities and metrics embedding, if we can find a Trend that is 56% against the spread over an historically relevant period of time, you tend to want to play that if all the other factors are in your direction. Tomlin, he's 60 plus percent in just about every category. As an underdog, you say, all right, between three and seven, two key numbers. 67%, you say on the road, as a dog, 64%. Like you can't name a category where he's not 60 plus percent. And then if you look at the matchup too, you mentioned Saquon, right? The Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is running the ball at a higher percentage than they're passing the ball. And I would not think, oh my God, Jalen Hurts and A.J. brown, there's, you know, strife and now they're getting along again. Doesn't mean that Kellen Moore is going to change this offense and all of a sudden try to make it so. AJ Brown is getting more and more touches. This is who they are. Jalen Hurts has thrown the fewest passes in the NFL this year. So I would expect a low scoring game. Wise guys are expecting a low scoring game that plays to the advantage of the team that is more than a field goal underdog. So yeah, that's the sharp side.

[Colin Cowherd]

I like the Broncos minus four, both teams off a buy. I think Denver's got a really good defense now again, Jameis Winston, I think you can beat it down the field. That's not really what the Colts do. I think there are ways to score on virtually every team in this league. And I think Cleveland is one of those weird bad teams that can be highly productive throwing the ball down the field. But it should be noted in that game, Denver eventually got pick sixes and turned the game around with their defense is. I think Anthony Richardson is struggling with Shane Steichen. Look what Shane Steichen did with Gardner Minshew, okay? Shane Steichen as a rookie with Justin Herbert set records made. Jalen hurts an MVP level player and he's pretty average from the pocket. That passing game is limited and I think it's limited because Anthony Richardson may not be a pro starting quarterback. I get an experienced coach, an excellent defense at home against a dome team. You know, I love the number four. It's probably square, but I like Denver here. Give me Sean Payton, Shanahan, McVeigh Reed, extra time, sharper, square.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, you know the answer. It's totally square. Wise guys love the Colts here. It's been bet down. It was at four and a half. It's at four. It'll probably go down to three and a half if you want to bet the Colts get it now because it's only going to go in their direction. You're right about the Broncos coming off a buy and there is a lot of public sentiment on the Broncos right now. The last time anyone saw them, they were winning in dramatic fashion against the Browns, right? They were getting two pick sixes. They were covering with a miracle and interception in the end zone. The Broncos are covering by five points per game. Historically, teams that are covering by five points per game over the course of the season, once we get past week five only covered about a 44% clip against the spread. So there's one trend to help the cause of the Colts. But also I don't know that wise guys agree with you about Anthony Richardson. I think there's a little bit of Bryce Young sort of in the way he's come back from being benched since he's come back 8th rated passer according to Pro Football Focus, 4th in big plays according to Pro Football Focus, big play throws according to Pro Football Focus. So it's not as bad as you would think. And I do think there's something key here. Remember what happened with the Browns against the Broncos on that in that prime time game, they didn't have Riley Moss, a cornerback. They had William Vance. William Vance, he might have still. He might still be giving up touchdowns to Jerry Judy as we speak, like he was getting torched in that game. Riley Moss is the only guy who didn't practice this week for the Broncos. So if he's not playing, I think that's a severely diminished defense and it impacts what they can do all across the board. So there's trend reasons, there's inflation reasons, the line is just too high, the wise guys think, and there's some matchup reasons.

[Colin Cowherd]

Packers, Seahawks is a really interesting game. Packers, like the Eagles, have taken passing attempts away from Jordan Love in the last month, are now a power run team that makes far fewer mistakes. But Green Bay is like a younger version of Philadelphia. They have just decided we're a power run team. We do have weapons over the top, but we're not going to let our quarterback throw more than like 22 to 24 times and we're going to reduce the errors. And when Green Bay does reduce the errors, they're a really, really good football team. I like Seattle. I still don't think they're an elite team. I think they're, I think they're a playoff team, maybe in a okay division. I think Green Bay is absolutely a playoff team in an excellent division. I like green bay minus two and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Sharper square, 100% sharp at two and a half. If it gets to three, it's a pass and if it gets to three, you know, the wise guys will probably want to bet on Seattle, but at two and a half, it's 100% the packers for the reasons you just stated. And the most important thing, it's like playing SEC in the Mac, right? The packers are losing really close games and winning really close games in the best division of football. They are battle tested every single week. The Seahawks, they're winning a fluky game against the Cardinals a few weeks ago. Then they're getting the Cardinals in a classic Kyler Murray game last week and they won a miraculous game against the jets, which they should have lost, but they got Leonard Williams running a pick six back for, you know, 90 something yards. So they're a much better team since the buy and credit to their coaching staff and everything they've done. And they've improved their defense significantly and their offense, by the way, you know, Zach Charbonnet and what he did last week was a great match for how they want to build their running scheme. But the wise guys like the packers here, it's just, it's, it's a better team. And by the way, Matt LaFleur is a wizard when it comes to covering the spread, it's very possible in 15 years of Matt LaFleur is still coaching the Packers. He's got Mike Tomlin like stats as a favorite and as an underdog covering the spread.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay, a game I want you to tell me where to go is Bears plus six and a half at the Vikings. So Minnesota is a really good team but that game with Atlanta was tied going into the fourth quarter. I've seen them against teams like The Jags go 0 for 5 in the red zone. It's a good team with a quarterback having a great year. But six and a half is a lot. It's a divisional game and the Bears before that disaster in the Bay Area, which was probably easier to predict than I would have admitted. I do think they'll get back on track. I do think they have a very good roster. This again seems out of whack. Six and a half. I mean I think it's. I honestly see it as a go either way game in the fourth quarter probably take the better coaching staff but sharper square Bears plus the points.

[Chad Millman]

So the Bear, it's. It's the sharp ish play only because. And we talk about this all the time on the show, you want to get the best of the number. 24 hours ago this game was seven and a half and then it went down to seven and now it's down to six and a half. That alone tells you, Colin, that you're on the sharp side. If you're betting the Bears, the number has been moving in their direction. The line is way too inflated and you're getting a very buy low on the Bears. Sell high on the Vikings spot. The Bears were a train wreck. They couldn't have looked any worse. They were out of it against the niners in the first half, right? They had four total yards and they had five punts and the Niners had 319 yards. Whereas the Vikings, you're right, that game was tied and they really blew it up open in the fourth quarter because of a couple bad plays and turnovers on the part of the Falcons. Not because of anything magical that the Vikings did to run away with it. Even though Sam Darnold had an incredible game. But they have had their hiccups. Brian Flores defense has not been as good in the second half of the year as it was in the first half of the year. So yes, you're on the sharp side, but it's a caution. Know that if you're playing this number, you've given away some value.

[Colin Cowherd]

So I Think the Titans getting four and a half with the Bengals. My prediction is that's the ugly game. I ask you every week for a game that I've missed. My guess is the Titans, a pretty good defensive team at home playing with pride against the Cincinnati team. You can just move the ball. I mean, if not for a gaffe by the Cowboys special teams, we're going to overtime against a very mediocre Dallas team with Cooper Rush. Is Tennessee plus four and a half. The side here, is that the game I'm missing?

[Chad Millman]

Well, certainly it's a side like it was at 5 and it's come down. So that tells you the wise guys are betting on the Titans because certainly the public isn't going to be betting on the Titans. It's a really tricky game. I haven't touched this game 100%. The value is on the Titans. It's not the game I was going to talk to you about, but the challenge here, you've basically got a one dimensional Bengals team, right? All they can really do is throw the ball to Higgins and Chase. Joe Burrow, Higgins, Joe Burrows, Chase. That's their game plan. They can't really run the ball, they don't have a screen game, they don't really have play action to speak of all of those things that could slow down a better than average defense in the Titans. And they have no defense to speak of. The problem is Will Levis. He's not any better than Cooper Rush, right? He's got a better arm, maybe he can fling it downfield further. But he couldn't even beat up on the Jaguars at home last week despite so many opportunities. So you're kind of banking on the fact you're hoping that when there's an opening Will Levis can convert, you're going to take the Titans because if you're a better, that's what you do. You bet, you bet the number. But know that you're, you're playing with fire here because you're not just betting the number, you're betting Will Levis.

[Colin Cowherd]

All right, tell me the game I missed.

[Chad Millman]

You didn't talk about Cleveland and Kansas City. This number has dropped from six and a half to four and a half.

[Colin Cowherd]

So the Browns are the side, The.

[Chad Millman]

Browns have been the side. The Browns are the side until it gets to about three and a half. And this one, you know, in the betting community it's. There's two things that are sort of scary right now. It's the frequency and regularity with which you can count on fading Patrick Mahomes when he's a favorite of more than 3, and the frequency and regularity with which you can count on betting Mike Tomlin as an underdog. I said percentage wise, if Something is happening six out of 10 times, which is basically what what it what is happening with both of those categories, Tomlin is a dog. Mahomes is a favorite of more than three. It means that four times those bets are going to lose this year. They haven't been losing at all. And so wise guys know in this spot, the spot is to play Cleveland. But it's a little bit scarier because you keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. A lot of guys, including myself, thought it would happen last week against the Chargers. No J.K. dobbins, no lad McConkey. And it looked like it was going to. And then again, the Chiefs kind of fell apart because they have no protection in the offensive line. So the Browns pressure the ball, pressure the quarterback more than the Chargers and are better at it. And meanwhile, the Chiefs now they're signing guys off the street to play in the defensive backfield. And if you want to talk about a quarterback who could have a good time slinging it against a wonky defensive backfield, let's talk about Jameis. Now, are you potentially going to suffer a pick six that can ruin it for you?

[Colin Cowherd]

Sure.

[Chad Millman]

But the wise guys are willing to literally make that bet. So they're playing Cleveland.

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Colin Cowherd]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Chad Millman]

Well, right now the number's seven and a half. Like, people have been talking about it. I think there's a lot of circumstances still to go. I'm looking in the app right now. Not a ton of action on the game at this point. And like, this is so early. You can't really take anything of it. Majority of money and tickets are on Tennessee. I also think a weak spot for the, for Ohio State is their quarterback. Like, he's not sort of an elite passer who can take advantage of the talent they have, the elite talent, you know, top round, first round draft pick talent they have at Ohio State. You and I have talked about Ohio State a lot and Ryan Day. The AD came out today and said he supports Ryan Day. He wants Ryan Day to be back as the head coach. Like, I think there's so much tension inside that community right now about not just beating Tennessee, but the having to advance, that his teams have shown up and played tight. In big games. They play tight. So if you're seeing the early numbers come in on Tennessee, I think it's partly a fade of Ryan Day's ability to have his team play loose and take full advantage of the talent that they have on their roster.

[Colin Cowherd]

Let's talk about Belichick. I saw today an incredibly weak schedule. Next year they have Clemson at home and then Syracuse on the road, but it screams 10 wins. They don't have a quarterback. The O line's a bit of a mess. He's bringing in Mike Lombardi to be like his gm. They're going to use a pro model. I don't think high school recruiting will be. I don't even think they're going to fake it. I think it's going to be an 80, 20 transfer portal team. I don't even think they're going to fake it because I don't really think this is a long term proposition. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if after a year Belichick moves back to the pro league and his son takes over. I really don't see this as a long term proposition. I think the administration, the transfer portal, the fluid nil, the needy donors, clueless administrators, angry lacrosse coach who's not getting attention. I could see Belichick after a year saying, guys, I got nine wins, 10 wins. I'm back to the NFL. Over under six and a half, I thought was like. And generally I bet unders on future bets. Like this year I took Denver in the over. Last year I took Rams in the over. I think there's about one gem. Three years ago I took Minnesota, they became 13 and three. So I got those right. I also like Washington, but generally there's about one great over a year and then I just bet unders. Is the betting community reacting to all six and a half? Seems in a really, really weak conference. Seems weirdly low.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, we're hours into this. There's no real reaction if we're talking about North Carolina season win totals at six and a half because of Bill Belichick. I agree with your theory. I agree with your premise. The one thing I would say is I think it's fascinating that he's doing this and the way he's, he's talking about it as a, treating it like a professional program and bringing GMs in. He's basically getting the old band back together right from the Patriots circa, you know, 2005. I think, I think it's, it's fundamentally brilliant because he's going to run it the way he said the other day on McAfee. Like, he's going to run it like it's a professional organization, which is what's driving a lot of the college coaches out. So this is a huge advantage for him here. He's managing a salary cap. He's trying to bring in the best possible talent that are free agents within the college football community. Like this is what the guy has been doing for years and he will be able to do it in a way that at least for a year or two will have the shine of Bill Belichick, greatest coach ever. And there will be so many people who are high profile players who are going to be interested in seeing what that experience is like. Can he bradify anybody? I think it's great. So as a fun flyer for sure I would take over six and a half.

[Colin Cowherd]

You know, it's what's really interesting about this transfer portal. Deion Sanders, Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley have found this out. You could improve the talent in your roster, but it's very hard to improve chemistry when you're basically hiring one year to the pro players. Oregon, what's really interesting, Oregon got away with it but almost lost to Idaho and Boise State early now by and this is a program with excellent high school recruiting and a great staff. But if you go back to the first two games for Oregon, they were awful because they were moving around offensive line pieces. They just on sheer talent got away with it. LSU and USC did not. Colorado did not eventually. So the transfer portal, even for the teams that win with it, I mean Ohio State, Will Howard's not as good as they thought he was passing against Big 12 teams. What do you know? Big 10 defenses are better. Big 10 stadiums are louder. Big 10 defensive coaching staffs are better. Will Howard looks really ordinary. He didn't at Kansas State. I watched them and thought it was a great pickup. So it's interesting. The transfer portal. Belichick though has dealt with pro athletes and that's essentially like Ole Miss. They just went and bought a pro team. And Lane Kiffin, by the way, that's why it's worked, because he's got pro experience. So my guess is the personnel and coaching will work. I think the personality fit. You know, he's kind of a terse northeast confrontational guy. And you know these colleges, you forget the word woke. You know, they're a little PC and people, they're very tribal. People have their territory and you go, you walk in. It's not just the professors who are tenured. You have decade old administrators. He does not care about that. He's not going to any volleyball galas. He doesn't care. So I can see that really wearing him. And UNC out in 18 months.

[Chad Millman]

So Seth Wickersham, who you've had on your show a lot, he's great, brilliant writer at ESPN. He has a great story on ESPN.com today with a little bit of insight and inside info on the process and what the NFL was thinking about Belichick. And you know, he did an amazing story when Belichick didn't get any jobs about it seemed like GMs and owners were kind of dancing on Belichick's grave a little bit. And the fact that he didn't get any offers and the Falcon saying he wasn't even in their top three of candidates at the end of the day after the interview process. So to me, this feels like. And he pointed out Belichick has a reverence for teaching. And, you know, the, the book that Haberstem wrote, David Haberstem wrote about Belichick and Seth wrote all about this. I'm just cribbing from. His story was called the Education of a Coach. His dad was essentially his professor. Right. And so I do think there is something for Belichick about going to college and being able to shape people from the beginning. Remember, he was drafting guys that he could turn into super bowl champions. Chuck Noel, the Chuck no way was draft guys who you can mold, who can turn into the players you want them to be, who don't have bad habits.

[Colin Cowherd]

Right.

[Chad Millman]

I wrote a whole book about this, about the Steelers and the Cowboys rivalry, and Chuck Knoll was brilliant at this. So Belichick going to college, even if he's getting guys from a transfer portal. If you're going to play for Belichick, you want a certain style of coaching and you want to know what it takes to get the NFL. You are going to be listening to what Belichick and whoever he puts on staff with him will be saying. You will be moldable, you will be coachable. And I think if you're North Carolina, you know what you're getting and you're staying out of the way. And if it's a year, if it's two years, whatever it is, you're not going to get gruff from tenured professors. You're not going to get gruff from people who don't care about football and are annoyed at the attention he's getting. You know what you're getting with Bill Belichick, and you're going to suck it up and accept it, and he's going to bring you victories and shine to your football program until he decides to go back the NFL and get Don Shula's record.

[Colin Cowherd]

By the way, before we go, there's been a lot of UAP and UFO sightings in New Jersey. So I have. I always have. I don't believe in UFOs. What I do believe is that our government lies to us, often to protect us from adversaries or to hide, suppress information, to hide technology. They did this with a stealth for years. So I basically think these are super drones that we're experimenting with, our government is experimenting with. And they put them in a high, you know, a location with a lot of media by the water and to see the reaction from people and see how they look, how people react. They're super drones, drones that our government's been working on. And they probably, 150 miles offshore, probably release them. You know, one of our, you know, giant jets goes out there, government jets, and releases 10 into the sky and they, you know, they play around for a while and then they come back, go back offshore. That's my guess on what it is. If you had to guess, is the world ending or is it some international or government program?

[Chad Millman]

Dude, there's a lot to unpack there. And believe it or not, I have so many theories on this. I think about this so much. Number one, I am essentially a P doomer. I do believe that there is a point in the not too distant future, a hundred years, 200 years, I don't know, in which the world will come to an end because of some catastrophic, whether it's technological, environmental moment.

[Colin Cowherd]

Right?

[Chad Millman]

Number one. Number two, I also agree the government oftentimes will be screwing around with us in some kind of program. I'm not like a, you know, deep government, dark government, conspiracy C theory theorist. I don't believe there are people who are actively trying to manipulate outcomes and all those kinds of things. I 100% believe there is alien life and there is intelligent life that is working at a higher capacity with more intellectual capacity than humans. And for all we know, they could already be here. Could be sharks. Right? How arrogant do you have to be to not think that there could be somebody higher on the intellectual food chain than us? We have explored so little of the galaxies to understand what intelligent life is. And like I, Carl Sagan is one of the most brilliant people who ever lived. He believed that there would be some form of intelligent life and that there is some form of intelligent life outside of known humanity. If he believes it, I believe it.

[Colin Cowherd]

But how do we know they're smarter? I think there's something out there. But how do we know they don't have the IQ equivalency of like the Jersey Shore cast?

[Chad Millman]

Well, number one, don't discount those Jersey Shore folks because they have made a killing. Like they have figured out how to be bankable, number one. Number two, we don't know that. But then you have to ask the other Question. How do we know they're not smarter?

[Colin Cowherd]

And I think it's a better story that they're super geniuses. I think it's a better story.

[Chad Millman]

Well, it also could be true. We want to believe like that. You're right. The narrative, the science fiction of it all is that they're out there, they're smarter, they're going to come to Earth, they will attack us, they will destroy us, they will use us as puppets. All the Independence Day philosophies, all that kind of stuff. Here's what I'm saying to you. Are they here already? That's the question. Why are we so arrogant as to believe that they're not already here? How do we know they're not sharks?

[Colin Cowherd]

I don't think it's arrogant. I think if we saw them or we had things that led us to believe they were here that we would believe it. But I think there's so many grifters on the Internet that are bored out of their mind and there's been so many obviously inauthentic or fake UFO videos that most people are appropriately cynical. Sure I am. I think I'm appropriately cynical. There. There are more videos now than ever. I have seen some in the last two or three weeks. There was the Pentagon video, the Tick Tock based Tic Tac basically over the Pacific, which is, you know, it's hard to explain. And those were really genuinely perplexed fighter pilots, you know, and they're up in the sky. So that stuff's, you know, that's obviously something. It could be China and I've this stuff in New Jersey. I mean you can tell when somebody's faking it and you can tell when it's a husband and a wife having a margarita and they're like, what the f is that? And they're just laughing. You know, you can tell when it's real and when it's posers. But I tend to go back to. I think it's a government plane 150 miles offshore releasing super drones and just looking for the reaction. How visible. How does our government track them? I think our government does a lot of testing. Our military does testing. The Pentagon does testing and they just don't tell us.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, but I agree it could be super drones and things like that. I don't think it's because they're trying to test for a reaction. I think they're probably trying to test for whatever militaristic use there is for something like this and how they can be deployed that is separate from there is some kind of alien life probably living among us right now. I just. I believe it. And if it's not here yet, it's out there somewhere and it could be more intelligent than us. Might not be. I don't mind listening to your theory and subscribing to that either. But I'm telling you, we're not alone, Colin. We're just. We're just not alone. And I'm okay with it. I'm totally okay with it. I've. Like, there's plenty of room. Like, I don't subscribe to the theory that they have to be after us and they want to be controlling us. We can all peacefully coexist. I love love. Why can't we all just get along?

[Colin Cowherd]

Listen, I was. There's a man that has died three separate times and come back to life. He's all over the Internet, you know, and his. He goes against the grain and says, there is no hell. I've experienced it three times. What you do is go through the moments of your life and your bad interactions and when you were rude and when you were mean, and that is the hell that you have to revisit those situations when you were unkind and unwelcoming. There is no fiery pit. It's a series of confrontations looking back at yourself and the moments you misstepped. And that is punishment. And it's painful. And I. And I hear that. And I think now that seems much more realistic to somebody who's died, been unconscious three different times, and come back to life. So one of the things I've always thought about, if there is life beyond us, I think they would enter. Not. I think they would enter and house themselves in the water. Because it's the one part of this planet, first of all, it's the largest part. It's the most unexplored part. There's not as many telescopes facing down as up. And it is basically uninhabited. It's easier to hide and you can travel very well, you know, submarines everywhere. So I always thought if there was another society, that's where you'd hide. And that's. So when I see videos, they're often near the water. You see them so often on coastlines and Virginias and New Jerseys and Californias and Mexico. And it's like, what's the theme? You don't see them in Ottawa. You see them near water. You don't see them in. Yeah, I mean, you really don't. You don't see them in Kansas very much. So that leads me to believe there is some water connection.

[Chad Millman]

I got two things to say to you. Number one.

[Colin Cowherd]

What?

[Chad Millman]

That guy on the Internet who's talking about hell died three times. 100% an alien. Number two, I'm telling you underwater. I agree. It's the sharks. I'm just saying the sharks, they could just be alien life forms.

[Colin Cowherd]

I'm gonna have to sleep on that one.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, get back to me.

[Colin Cowherd]

Sharper. Sharper Square. Chad Millman. Good seeing you, buddy.

[Chad Millman]

All right, brother. I'll talk to you later.

[Colin Cowherd]

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[Chad Millman]

How do we know?

[Colin Cowherd]

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