Chad Millman (4:11)

Sharper Square Colin, this is why the Favorites is on the Volume Podcast Network. You just summarized exactly what Simon and I have been saying about this game in our shows this week and we surprised ourselves. You said a couple things about favorites. We like a lot of favorites this week and we loved underdogs last week and it's surprising us that the Bills are one of those teams. The Bills number has been bouncing four. Three and a half four. Three and a half at four. The wise guys are generally buying the Rams at three and a half. They're taking the Bills again. But you could also just as easily find people in professional ranks who like the bills at minus 4. I can't add anything to the analysis you just said. It's exactly why there is a consistency to this team that hasn't been there in the past. The run game is dominant. The Rams rush defense is not very good. The Rams are not just Inconsistent half to half. They're inconsistent series to series. You can see it against the Saints. You saw it the week before where they barely beat the Patriots. Like they, they have a couple great series and then they disappear for full quarters of the game. They la last week against the Saints, they barely, they didn't score in the first half. So your, your, your handicap is exactly, exactly right. The one thing that is worrying professional betters here is the Bills just beat the Chiefs, then they just beat the Niners and out of this they got to go play the Steelers like they're in a gauntlet right now. This is a classic letdown spot. I don't think that'll be the case because I do think that what you just said about running game and defense travels. I'm a big believer in he who owns the line of scrimmage owns the spread. So I'm giving you a 75% sharp. Not Ginsu knife sharp, but sharp.

Colin Cowherd (6:23)

Here's another favorite I like. So I think this is one of the biggest coaching mismatches of the week. Miami minus five and a half against the Jets. When Robert Salah left the building, they lost their only elite football coach. It is a bad staff. It is a quarterback that is has not regressed to Kirk Cousins level last week, but has regressed. Aaron is not a top 15 quarterback. Miami has to win. They're at home. I think it's an excellent coaching staff with some limitations. North with tua. You get TUA back home. Five and a half. I. If you told me one game's a blowout this week, I mean, I'm watching, I'm watching the jets blow games to Denver and Seattle at home. Let's not forget what Miami is. North against Green Bay, short week. That was one of the easy bets of the year. Come home, superior staff. I think they hammer the jets sharper. Square.

Chad Millman (7:19)

So it's square. But I'll tell you what, you're right. And like Miami is one of the biggest bets I've made this weekend. One of the biggest bets Simon has made this weekend. I can't understand the move on this. It's gone from seven to six and a half to six in some places. You're saying five and a half like it makes no sense. It makes no sense that professional money keeps coming in on the jets and it's been happening literally every single week. The last time the jets were underdogs was week six against the Bills. They were one and a half point underdogs and that line moved in their favor. Like if the game had been 24 hours later, it might have been pick. And it's not like they're, they're, they're favorites against bad teams. They were favorites against Houston. They were favorites against Arizona. They were favorites against Pittsburgh. Like it. This is a bad team since Robert Sala was fired as coach, 31st in EPA for play. Like they are a very, very bad football team right now. Aaron Rodgers is not mobile. And you're looking at a Dolphins team. You just said with tua when they're home and they're playing a bad team. So a team that has a winning percentage of 250 or less, which is what the jets have two is seven and one against the spread in his career. This is not a team that underperforms against bad teams. This is when they actually do their best. So I'm with you. And like, all I would say is if you like the Dolphins, you might want to wait a beat because the line might continue to move. The jets get big money every single Sunday. It is astonishing. I don't understand it.

Colin Cowherd (9:05)

Let me throw you another favorite. Kansas City at home -4 against the Chargers. So there are certain teams that match up with Kansas City, teams that can beat them down the field. Denver, for instance. Mims, Cortland, Sutton can force them to be more honest. Okay, The Chargers lack playmakers and now the ones they have are hurt. Lad McConkey's hurt. JK Dopp. There is no pop. And that allows spags to be even more aggressive when you play a Buffalo. I think Denver's one of these teams that I don't think we get how good they are. They can really punish you down the field. The Chargers can't. This is a bad spot for a dinged up Chargers team. Kansas City -4 is my second third favorite pick of the weekend. Sharper, square, totally sharp.

Chad Millman (9:51)

And it's rare that the wise guys would come in on Kansas City as a plus a field goal favorite in the division against a team like the Chargers, which historically you get. A team like the Chargers, they're physical at the line of scrimmage. They have a really good coach. The quarterback doesn't make mistakes. That's what you want to bet on if you're a professional. Better against a very public team like the Kansas City Chiefs. When Patrick Mahomes in his career as a favorite of three or more is historically under.500 against the spread, about 45, 46%. But what's happening here is exactly what you said ever since J.K. dobbins went out against the Ravens. At the end of that first half, the Chargers have not been able to move the ball. Justin Herbert had been using play action considerably more since he came back from the bye and his high ankle sprain had improved. That's because J.K. dobbins was in the backfield. He was able to pull linebackers up. He was able to get more throwing windows specifically to Ladd McConkey and Will Disley, right. J.K. dobbins goes out. They lose all downfield passing ability against the Ravens. And then last week they only had 56 yard rushing yards rushing against the Falcons in a game that they easily could have lost if Kirk Cousins wasn't doing his own southern version of Aaron Rodgers. So it's a real tricky spot for them. JK Dobbins still out lad McConkey limited in practice this week with continuing shoulder injury and now a new injury to his knee. I agree with you. The wise guys agree with you. The the Chiefs, meanwhile, they may start D.J. humphries, which would be a incredible improvement at left tackle. They had three guys on the injury report coming out of Wednesday. All of them were full participants in practice. They had a little bit of a mini buy. I think they'll recognize that they've been plateauing a little bit and get an opportunity to get healthy. The wise guys agree with you. Very sharp.

Colin Cowherd (11:53)

So I'm going to give you one more favorite and they'll go into some underdogs. So The Raiders played 10 rookies. They're beat up and they're just playing kids and they play hard. But disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Tampa, meanwhile, played poorly and won. I love teams that play poorly and win the following week. Sean Payton always told me it's always the best week of practice. You can dog cuss them all week, but they're happy because they won. Tampa is a good team. Jason Light's always been able to stack this roster. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. We have to be honest now they can play when you give them the right coach. It can be a Liam Cohen. It can be a Kevin O'Connell. Guys can sling it. They're good. Tampa is playing. They have to beat Atlanta outright because Atlanta beat them twice. So these are playoff games for Tampa. The Raiders are playing kids. They're sitting there. Antonio Pierce and Tom Telesco. They're looking at film. They're trying to judge. They're already on the next year. I know it's six and a half, but I like the Bucks sharper, square.

Chad Millman (12:58)

So it's square. But square because of the number it moved from seven to six and a half. I think the wise guys continue to want to play the Raiders when it's a big number. They feel like the Bucks will continue to let teams that aren't as good stay in it. Baker, as much as he's balling out and I think has earned a lot of respect from fans, from media, from his teammates, he's still prone to make mistakes. We saw it against the Panthers. Two critical interceptions. So this is really about the number. It's not about anything on the field. They're just looking at it and saying 7 feels like inflation for the Bucks.

Colin Cowherd (13:50)

I. I'd like to say I like this underdog. I really don't, but it's screaming at me. So I think the Steelers are going to beat the Browns, but I don't think Jameis Winston is going to have another two pick six game. And frankly, in a division rivalry, Cleveland matches up with Pittsburgh. Hell, they matched up and had Denver, I thought, beat. I think Cleveland's got a good roster and a really good coach. Six and a half seems to me the the number should be three and a half, four and a half. I'm going to take Cleveland plus six and a half. Sharp or square?

Chad Millman (14:30)

Totally sharp. This shouldn't even be a question. Everything that you're sort of half in on is 100% right. Number one, this is a division game in the AFC North. These games always tend to be closer than what the spread should be and favor the underdog also, Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as an underdog is brilliant. It is a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot when he is on the road as an underdog. When he is at home as an underdog. He is the most profitable coach as an underdog this generation the past 20 years, often winning times straight up. Forget about just covering the spread. As great as he is as an underdog is as ineffective he is as a favorite. Now he's a six and a half point favorite. We're talking about 45% against the spread in similar scenarios throughout his career. And look, Jameis is one of those guys. Last week I loved the Broncos because Jameis was so good the week before. I tend to want to fade Jameis after he's been great. And while it took two pick sixes and an interception in the end zone to get there, what we expected to happen with Jamis is exactly what happened. When Jamis is off of a loss, that is when he is great against the spread. And I do think that there has to Be some kind of regression on Russell Wilson's ability to throw these moon balls and consistently have them caught in crazy, crazy circumstances. So the wise guys are with you. Take the Browns plus six and a half.

Colin Cowherd (16:13)

So a game I there's a game every week. I say, hey, I just want to ask you about. And I look at the Falcons plus six. At Minnesota, Kirk Cousins was. He looked like if Justin verlander threw an 81 mile an hour fastball. What am I watching? Is it an injury? In the last two weeks, something's off. So older players get hurt more. They play with pride and play through injuries. Aaron Rodgers, stories you've heard about Kirk Cousins. This is just screaming take the Vikings. But again, Atlanta is playing to win the division. Kirk Cousins can't play like that. Again, the protection will be good. Kirk can handle Brian Flores coverages. He's seen everything. Tell me where I'm supposed to go with that number.

Chad Millman (17:11)

Minnesota. This number has been moving up. The only concern you should have is that you're not getting the best of the number because it opened at five, it went to five and a half streaming towards six. I disagree that Kirk Cousins can handle what Brian Flores is going to throw at him. Brian Flores defense is exactly what troubles Kirk Cousins against pressure. He has the most turnover worthy throws in the NFL this year. And don't forget this Vikings defense is incredible against the run. They're incredible against the run. Outside the tackles, they're incredible against the run, inside the tackles. They are really efficient in stopping the run. The strength of the Falcons. Right now it's Bijan Robinson, right? Nobody can figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts. The next coach, coordinator, quarterback who can figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts could end up going to the hall of Fame. Because all we ever hear about is Kyle Pitts is the weapon who can unlock the Atlanta Falcons offense. And nobody has been able to figure out how to do it. And Kirk Cousins since that, that streaky start, 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions to start the year. The past three games since they started six and three, zero touchdown passes, six interceptions, seven sacks and let's not forget he had nearly 800 yards and eight touchdowns in two of those first nine games against the 10th Bay Buccaneers. So let's not sort of, let's not confuse ourselves into believing that Kirk Cousins is just having a little bit of a bad rough patch right now. He's just not mobile and he's not playing well and he's had two good games that have made the numbers look really good. So the wise guys like Minnesota here.

Colin Cowherd (19:05)

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Justin Jefferson (22:03)

In the host chair at the Daily show, which means he's also back in our ears on the Daily Show Ears Edition Podcast the Daily Show Podcast has everything you need to stay on top of today's news and pop culture. You get hilarious satirical takes on entertainment, politics, sports and more from John and the team of correspondents and contributors. The podcast also has content you can't get anywhere else, like extended interviews and a roundup of the weekly headlines. Listen to the Daily Show Ears edition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

Colin Cowherd (22:47)

All right, a little shift up. I'm I want to talk one college game, so these are my instincts. This is my favorite college bet of the weekend. Georgia plays Texas. I like the over. Here's why. Georgia played an eight overtime game. Okay. That doesn't affect the offense. Carson Beck's had three straight games. Eleven touchdowns, no picks. He's fine. It decimates a defense. You play an extra 28 snaps. Georgia looked tired last week against Georgia Tech. They're going to be banged up. Also, Texas got humiliated up front offensively in Austin. They have something to prove. They also played their worst offensive game of the year last week against Texas A and M. So Texas is going to play inspired offensive football. Georgia's defense is done, but their offense is still. You know, these are the two best quarterbacks in the sec, Carson Beck and Quin Ewers. In terms of like efficiency. I love the over in this game. I think it actually ends up being a kind of a just a wild shootout with a Georgia defense that just is out of gas. The over underlined draftkings I don't know what it is exactly right now. If you find it, you can tell me, but that's my favorite college bet in weeks.

Chad Millman (24:06)

Look, it's an it's interesting. Chris Long, who has a brilliant podcast, the Greenlight Podcast. Yeah, he makes great points about the challenge of overtime on an NFL player and that literally every hour of recovery matters when you are playing in the NFL. And if you got the 4pm game and it ends at 8 because your game went into overtime, that's a real impact on your body and your ability to recover. I know the game for Georgia and Georgia Tech was on Friday night, but I'M not discounting the impact of an overtime game like that because I do think that it's really, really hard on the body and I do think these offenses are both primed to blow up. So I don't, I don't hate your pick.

Colin Cowherd (24:58)

It's 49 and a half. 49 and a half. That is not a big number.

Chad Millman (25:03)

Not a big number at all. Like, I was looking it up as you were looking up as well when you were talking about it. I didn't have it at the top of my head. In my head, it was 51. So just thinking about these teams, 49 and a half feels a little bit low. Now I'm looking in the app and I'm seeing do I have any total picks right now? I don't. Nope. Wait, let's see one thing here. You know what I got, I got one under and that's it. So far from sort of the experts.

Colin Cowherd (25:40)

Okay, I like the over.

Chad Millman (25:41)

Let's be different. Let's be different and take the over.

Colin Cowherd (25:44)

The. You know what's funny about college football? So I had Notre Dame to cover. I had Oregon to cover. I had Ohio State to cover. You know, it's funny. And I've lived off this my entire career. New information, new opinion. I don't think it's flip flopping. I always say if you were getting on a flight and the pilot said, listen, we've had a weather change, but instead of a new flight plan, I'm going to fly right into the lightning storm. You'd be like, that's not smart. Right? Like, I don't understand, like bloggers or media critics who are like, you changed your mind. Every day of my life I change my mind because I'm curious and I seek new information. I sell stocks regularly. New information. So it's funny about Ohio State, I said, I always had Ryan Day as a coach that could win a national championship. But that coaching was so weird that I have eliminated him from that category where now I have like Lane Kiffin, Sark, Kalin DeBoer, Dan Lanning, you know, guys I think can win a national championship. They just haven't yet. They're good coaches. I had Ryan Dan that. Now I think to myself, okay, that's hyperbolic, that's overreacting. But there are things you want. I always use the example when Randy Moss played for the Patriots and it had been a couple years, one Monday night game against Miami, they literally didn't target him. And I said, oh, this is his last game as Patriot. And I went on the next day and said, people are like, you're overreacting. I'm like, you do not target Randy Moss once in a football game with Tom Brady. Somebody's pissed off. Somebody got. He was probably close to a dnp. Something's going well. Sure enough, he moved. Watching that game was so seismic to me. I'm like, I. I thought Ryan Day was coaching to prove a point. That was as bad a coaching as I've ever seen in a big spot.

Chad Millman (27:51)

You nailed it. You and I had this conversation before Thanksgiving about Ryan Day and about the pressure he is under and how there's not a single coach in the playoff who, unless they win the national championship, wouldn't be back next year. Only Ryan Day has that kind of pressure. He has not been coaching well in big games his entire career. Four straight losses to Michigan and this game. Exactly what you just said, I think is true. It felt like he was coaching. And again, he doesn't call the plays. It's Chip Kelly calling the plays. But the way the team performed, it felt like he was trying to prove they're super strong, they're super physical. They're going to punch him in the mouth. And all the aggression he's been feeling for years is coming out in that game. And then at the end, his team is getting into a fistfight with the Michigan team, and he's standing there and just asking, what's happening? What's going on? Like, it's just. I can't imagine he's back in Ohio State next year. And I know I don't like talking about people's jobs. Nobody does. But he has not performed at a level of expectation.

Colin Cowherd (29:14)

If he lost to Josh H. In the first round, I think he'd be in big trouble.

Chad Millman (29:19)

I think if he doesn't win a national title, he's in big trouble. Look, Colin, they spent $20 million. They got Jim Knowles, who's a legendary defensive coordinator. They got Chip Kelly, who revolutionized the game. They can go into the portal, get anybody they want. They can recruit anybody they want. They've lost two games this year. The first game of the year that they had six months to prepare for, and they got railroaded. And they got beat up in a fist fight with a team that is incredibly overmatched in terms of talent. And they lost at home to the. To a team that they had been thinking about beating for 364 days. You can't keep that guy if he doesn't win a national title.

Colin Cowherd (30:13)

Yeah, I would, but I think I'm in the minority, I think if he lost to Tennessee, I'd struggle. But if I think if he won a couple of games and let's say lost to Texas in, you know, the Final Four in overtime, I'd be like, okay, Texas. I mean, the only two teams I've seen, I think we don't have a great team in college football. But I thought before last weekend Texas and Oregon were really good and so was Ohio State. Those are really good teams. Very rarely in college football do you get a great team. The Joe Burrow team with, you know, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, that's a great team. The Reggie Bush teams, a couple of those were insane. Miami had a team at the end of the Butch Davis run that had like 22 NFL guys. The Lawrence Phillips, Tommy Frazier, Nebraska team, the 72 USC Trojans. You get these teams that are like, oh, God, this is a year full of good to very good teams. But people forget this, too. I mean, Ohio State struggled at Penn State. That was a clunky win. It was. It was an inartistic clunky win there. And I. And maybe Penn State will prove me wrong, but I think Oregon beats them this weekend. So I listen, here's all you need to know about coaching. Is a team over performing or underperforming? Ohio State has underperformed as much as any big name program this year.

Chad Millman (31:37)

Yeah, Everything you just said says to me, you think he shouldn't come back unless he wins the national title. I feel like you're being soft all of a sudden.

Colin Cowherd (31:51)

There's no great coach in the offing. There is. I mean, Urban Meyer would be my choice. I don't think he'll come back. The first thing I ask, I don't care if it's the volume, I don't care if it's as an athletic director. The first thing is, well, what's, what's the hiring market like? Like, I don't like making moves. Like I even, even, you know, I've dinked around with real estate and, you know, always calls me like I'm the circular. I'll circle something for a year. I'll drive by the property in the morning, I'll drive by at night, I'll drive by on the weekends. I'll circle. I'm somebody that. I wouldn't say cautious, but I tend to circle stuff before I do it. So the first thing I would do if I'm the athletic director is, all right, what's the market like? And some years you get Brian Kelly's available and you're like, you know, there are years like last year in the NFL, there was one good NFL opening, the Chargers because of Justin Herbert. They had a left tackle, they had a quarterback, they had a Bosa rushing off the edge. They had a great safety. You're like, that's a pretty good job. And it's in la, right? You can get free agents. But like this year in the NFL, Chicago's the best job. McCaskeys are the poorest owners. Owned it since the 20s. Not sure if Kevin Warren at president is the right guy. We don't know much about Ryan Poles. Like that's the best job. So there's not a lot of great job openings and there's not a lot of great candidates. And so to me, it's like I would keep Ryan Day and I would just keep my eye out if he, you know, I would say this. I'm on warning now. We're going into a season. I have, I have been, I may have gone into this season thinking he's here forever. I go into next season thinking stubs his toe. I'm going to make calls. That's how I would do it.

Chad Millman (33:39)

Ohio State is one of the two, three best coaching jobs in college football, right?

Colin Cowherd (33:48)

Yeah. Oh, absolutely. It's probably top two.

Chad Millman (33:50)

Yeah. You think if they got rid of Ryan Day, they couldn't pry one of the best coaches from another program away? Well, look at what like, I'm not saying that Washington was a top notch program, but Washington had been built quickly by Kaylin DeBoer and they were in a national title game last year. Nick Saban unexpectedly retires. They got him immediately.

Colin Cowherd (34:16)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (34:17)

And so I don't believe that Ohio State would not fire Ryan Day just because they don't think they can find a candidate. They can get anybody they want. They might be able to go into the NFL and get a great candidate who is a top notch coach who's dreamed of coach they could get. Mike Vrabel.

Colin Cowherd (34:35)

Right. John Gruden.

Chad Millman (34:37)

I'm just saying, like not knowing the current candidate pool wouldn't stop me from doing it because Ohio State is such a good job. The candidate pool is everybody.

Colin Cowherd (34:48)

Yeah. Gruden may be toxic to NFL people, but he's not toxic in college football. I would call Jon Gruden tomorrow for.

Chad Millman (34:54)

The Ohio State job and Gruden would crush that.

Colin Cowherd (34:57)

Yes, that would be my choice because I, you know, there's some, I think he still has a lawsuit or something with the NFL and there's some toxicity there, but college doesn't care. What do they care?

Chad Millman (35:07)

And he, I mean, are you kidding me? A football guy like Gruden.

Colin Cowherd (35:11)

And he's also a big personality. He'd be a great recruiter.

Chad Millman (35:15)

Great recruiter, great with boosters. Whatever nil money they have would get bigger. Like.

Colin Cowherd (35:21)

And he's also, he, you know, he likes personnel. Like, Andy Reid has no interest. But, but there are, you know, McVeigh has interest. Sean Payton likes personnel. Jimmy Johnson did. Gruden likes personnel. He enjoys the process of recruiting and judging players. So, yeah, I mean, that, that would be my first choice. Urban's my first choice. But he's been there and he's got a job.

Chad Millman (35:40)

I feel like you're coming around I feel like you're coming around to the idea that there's, there could be a candidate out there if Ohio state decided they wanted to go find a new coach.

Colin Cowherd (35:51)

Chad Millman, Sharper square. Good talking to you, buddy.

Chad Millman (35:54)

Good to see you, brother.

Colin Cowherd (35:57)

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Justin Jefferson (37:35)

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